Decarbonising the UK revisited: Lessons from two decades of energy scenario development

The Decarbonising the UK Revisited (DUK25) project sets out to examine institutional, methodological and political conditions that shape energy futures. This report is the result of workshop in February 2026, bringing together ten expert stakeholders from across UK energy and climate research, to reflect on past scenarios with hindsight and consider the lessons for future scenario development.

Decarbonising the UK: An expert workshop report

How would UK energy scenario practice look if lessons were learned from the past two decades? A new expert workshop report from the Tyndall Centre at The University of Manchester argues it would mean broader commissioning of expertise, methodological diversity, and energy demand as core components of any scenario set.

The new report draws on a workshop held in February 2026 with ten leading UK energy researchers. It builds on the Tyndall Centre’s 25th anniversary report, Decarbonising the UK Revisited, launched at the Centre’s Critical Decade for Climate Action Conference in September 2025, as a reflection on the original Decarbonising the UK, launched in 2005.

The research underpinning the workshop reviewed over 80 UK energy scenarios developed between 2000 and 2009, and compared them with what has happened since. It found that the UK now uses far less energy than almost any of those scenarios anticipated, yet the opportunity to act on this potential was largely missed.

This workshop brought together ten energy researchers, from those who have shaped the field to early career researchers now building on it, to explore why those gaps emerged and what can be learnt for the future.

Authors

• Gaurav Gharde
• Sarah Mander
• Carly McLachlan
• Chris Jones
• Alice Larkin

Download the full report (PDF) or read below:

DUK25_workshop_Report_11_03_2026

Related links

• Watch the video: See the online public seminar on the report findings
• Read our news story for more information on the workshop: “UK energy experts call for wider range of plausible futures for decarbonisation scenarios“
• Find out more about the anniversary assessment report: “Decarbonising the UK Revisited“