Tyndall Centre Publications

@article{81632e3cc49046548f8c7cd9bee8b337,

title = {A framework for classifying climate change questions used in public opinion surveys},

author = {John Kenny and Lucas Geese and Andrew Jordan and Irene Lorenzoni},

doi = {10.1080/09644016.2024.2429264},

issn = {0964-4016},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-20},

journal = {Environmental Politics},

publisher = {Routledge},

abstract = {Climate change is a significant site of political contestation, with public opinion frequently invoked to support claims for more (or less) action. Yet, ‘climate change public opinion’ is an umbrella term encompassing many different components. Empirical research has recently burgeoned, but an up-to-date and globally comprehensive guide to navigating the interconnected concepts currently measured is still lacking. In this review, we develop an original classification framework based on questions fielded in over 315 surveys across different parts of the world. We reflect on what aspects the questions elicit, relate them to patterns in the existing empirical literature, and identify and reflect on important implications for future research. Given the diversity of climate-relevant concepts that can be measured via survey questions, we recommend that researchers are clear about which component(s) of climate change public opinion they are eliciting, how they analyze these, and situate their research claims and policy recommendations accordingly.},

note = {Funding information: The work was supported by the European Research Council (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601) and the UK Economic and Social Research Council (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) ES/S012257/1).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{7e97afd2c1d64eff83fd3e1f95692558,

title = {Framing resilience to manage complex environmental systems},

author = {Ian Townend and Jon French and Robert Nicholls},

doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2024.09.008},

issn = {1479-2605},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-15},

journal = {Planet Earth},

volume = {7},

number = {11},

pages = {1941–1952},

publisher = {Natural Environment Research Council},

abstract = {The significant challenges of managing complex environmental systems in a changing world are widely acknowledged. There are widespread calls for transformation in our approach and for the adoption of more holistic perspectives. In this paper, we explore the concept of “resilience” within a system dynamics framework as an attractive and appropriate conceptual approach for this problem. We link this to the evaluation and selection of adaptation pathways and transitions within the constraints of a “safe operating space,” recognizing planetary boundaries as well as operational and sectoral constraints. We discuss the relative merits of using quantitative modeling to explore the evolution of individual system state functions versus the use of suites of measures that aim to characterize and track the overall resilience of complex environmental systems. Using national and global examples, we demonstrate how such a resilience-based approach can be made operational, which is a fundamental requirement for wider adoption.},

note = {Funding Information: This work is a follow-on from a project supported by the Strategic Priorities Fund, UK Climate Resilience Programme, through a UK Research & Innovation award (NE/S016651/1).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{6379eb791dd7438e810389bc36bc20ef,

title = {Sustainability-aligned values: Exploring the concept, evidence, and practice},

author = {Adrian Martin and Patricia Balvanera and Christopher M. Raymond and Erik Gómez-Baggethun and Uta Eser and Rachelle K. Gould and Louise Guibrunet and Zuzana V. Harmáčková and Andra I. Horcea-Milcu and Ann-Kathrin Koessler and Ritesh Kumar and Dominic Lenzi and Juliana Merçon and Agatha Nthenge and Patrick J. O'Farrell and Unai Pascual and Julian Rode and Yuki Yoshida and Noelia Zafra-Calvo},

doi = {10.5751/ES-15498-290418},

issn = {1708-3087},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-12},

journal = {Ecology and Society},

volume = {29},

number = {4},

publisher = {The Resilience Alliance},

abstract = {Modern environmental thought has always involved normative claims about the values needed for sustainability. This has often played out in debates between proponents of anthropocentric and ecocentric ways of valuing nature. More recently, there has been a flourishing of interest in relational and pluricentric ways of valuing nature, coinciding with a “turn to values” in the sustainability literature. In this paper we explore the meaning and use of the term “sustainability-aligned values.” Following the 2022 IPBES Values Assessment we consider these as values that are crucial for shaping decisions that will help bring about sustainability. Our characterization of sustainably-aligned values assumes inherent pluralism because of diverse interpretations of sustainability and of pathways toward it. Nevertheless, a review of three bodies of literature suggests that there is considerable agreement about the kinds of values that align with sustainability. In particular, the nurturing of certain relational values is now widely seen as supportive of sustainability, including values regarding what matters in human interactions with nature (such as stewardship), and values regarding relationships between humans (such as collectivism). We proceed to pose critical questions about the proposition that certain values support sustainability. We ask whether this emerging body of thought is consistent with pluralist requirements to foster values diversity, whether an agenda to nurture values aligned with sustainability is actionable, and how mobilizing sustainability-aligned values entails addressing power imbalances.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: No new data is used in this paper.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{aa6c47730f5c4e18b84f4fc3bac71a7c,

title = {Theory and the future of land-climate science},

author = {Michael P. Byrne and Gabriele C. Hegerl and Jacob Scheff and Ori Adam and Alexis Berg and Michela Biasutti and Simona Bordoni and Aiguo Dai and Ruth Geen and Matthew Henry and Spencer A. Hill and Cathy Hohenegger and Vincent Humphrey and Manoj Joshi and Alexandra G. Konings and Marysa M. Laguë and F. Hugo Lambert and Flavio Lehner and Justin S. Mankin and Kaighin A. McColl and Karen A. McKinnon and Angeline G. Pendergrass and Marianne Pietschnig and Luca Schmidt and Andrew P. Schurer and E. Marian Scott and David Sexton and Steven C. Sherwood and Lucas R. Vargas Zeppetello and Yi Zhang},

doi = {10.1038/s41561-024-01553-8},

issn = {1752-0894},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-01},

journal = {Nature Geoscience},

volume = {17},

number = {11},

pages = {1079–1086},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Climate over land—where humans live and the majority of food is produced—is changing rapidly, driving severe impacts through extreme heat, wildfires, drought and flooding. Our ability to monitor and model this changing climate is being transformed through new observational systems and increasingly complex Earth system models. But fundamental understanding of the processes governing land climate has not kept pace, weakening our ability to interpret and utilize data from these advanced tools. Here we argue that for land-climate science to accelerate forwards, an alternative approach is needed. We advocate a parallel scientific effort, one emphasizing robust theories, that aims to inspire current and future land-climate scientists to better comprehend the processes governing land climate, its variability and extremes and its sensitivity to global warming. Such an effort, we believe, is essential to better understand the risks people face, where they live, in an era of climate change.},

note = {Data availability statement: The model data used to produce Fig. 1 are provided by the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling and can be accessed at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. Funding information: We thank the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland for generously funding a workshop on land-climate science at the University of St Andrews (6–8 June 2022), which inspired this Perspective. M.P.B. was supported by the UKRI Frontier Research Guarantee scheme (grant number EP/Y027868/1), S.A.H. was funded by NSF award no. 2123327 and A.D. was funded by NSF award no. AGS-2015780.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{950dded18c9940a0ab8cb36fc9fe54b5,

title = {Politicians and climate change: A systematic review of the literature},

author = {Brendan Moore and Lucas Geese and John Kenny and Harriet Dudley and Andrew Jordan and Alba Prados Pascual and Irene Lorenzoni and Simon Schaub and Joan Enguer and Jale Tosun},

doi = {10.1002/wcc.908},

issn = {1757-7780},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-01},

journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},

volume = {15},

number = {6},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Politicians' engagement with climate change is the focus of an emerging literature, but this research has not been subjected to systematic analysis. To address this important gap, we perform a systematic review of 141 articles on politicians and climate change published between 1985 and 2021. We find a growing research area; almost half of the articles were published after 2018. Existing research is fragmented and focused on a small number of democracies in the Global North, with the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Norway and Australia being the most-heavily studied. Substantively, we analyze politicians' motivations, the incentives and barriers they face, and the strategies they employ to block/enable climate action. We find evidence of politicians being both intrinsically and extrinsically motivated. Intrinsic motivations often derive from formative experiences occurring prior to entering politics. Extrinsic motivations most commonly include publics/voters and external events. Importantly, intrinsic and extrinsic motivations vary in different political contexts, and indeed these two motivations may pull politicians in different directions. Politicians may employ various strategies—such as reframing—to achieve their desired policy outcomes. Moreover, politicians' motivations and strategies in relation to climate change are not static, but often vary. We conclude that there is an urgent need for research on how politicians are enabled and/or constrained by political system characteristics. Research is especially called for in the Global South and/or less democratic systems, as well as on investigating how politicians are (not) decarbonizing difficult-to-abate sectors and how they reconcile the sometimes-competing demands for climate change mitigation and adaptation.},

note = {Funding Information: Funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601), and the UK ESRC (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) (Grant ES/S012257/) and the SeNSS DTP (Grant ES/P00072X/1)).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{c20c38218b814d0c862a6f97881d2795,

title = {Correcting misperceptions about trends and norms to address weak collective action – Experimental evidence from a recycling program},

author = {Hanna Fuhrmann-Riebel and Ben D'Exelle and Kristian Lopez Vargas and Sebastian Tonke and Arjan Verschoor},

doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103046},

issn = {0095-0696},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-01},

journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},

volume = {128},

publisher = {Academic Press Inc.},

abstract = {Finding ways to encourage collective action in contexts where only a minority adopts the desired behavior is central to solving many of today’s global environmental problems. We study how correcting people’s beliefs about social norms and behavioral trends encourages collective action in a setting where the desired behavior is not yet prevalent. In a field experiment, we test whether low sign-up rates for a recycling program in urban Peru can be increased by providing information (1) that most people regard participation in the program as important, i.e., on the “injunctive norm”, (2) on an increasing recent trend in sign-up rates. We find that the effectiveness of the treatments depends on people’s prior beliefs: Correcting inaccurate beliefs increases sign-up decisions significantly among people who either substantially underestimate the injunctive norm or who underestimate the positive trend. As this sub-group of people is in the minority in our set-up, we do not observe statistically significant average treatment effects. We further find that the effects of the treatments increase in the level of underestimation. Our evidence demonstrates that belief updating can be used effectively to encourage collective action where it is weak as long as a meaningful number of people underestimates the relevant trends and norms.},

note = {Funding information: This research was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the University of East Anglia, UK (UEA GCRF Rapid Response Fund).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{848b8b999b934de2ba60717b1626dea6,

title = {Spray coating of 2D materials in the production of antifouling membranes for membrane distillation},

author = {Clara Skuse and Monica Alberto and Jose Miguel Luque-Alled and Vicente Orts Mercadillo and Edidiong Asuquo and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Adisa Azapagic and Patricia Gorgojo},

doi = {10.1016/j.memsci.2024.123162},

issn = {0376-7388},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-01},

journal = {Journal of Membrane Science},

volume = {711},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Membrane surface coatings with 2D materials have been shown to exhibit antifouling properties for water-treatment applications; however, synthesis methods currently based on vacuum filtration are not easily scalable. This study describes a scalable method for coating membranes with a range of 2D materials including graphene oxide (GO), hexagonal boron nitride (hBN), molybdenum disulphide (MoS2) and tungsten disulphide (WS2). Isopropyl alcohol solutions containing each class of the 2D flakes were spray-coated onto commercial polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) using a pyrolyser. The nanomaterials were secured with polydopamine (PDA) as a crosslinker in a method that could easily be integrated into a scalable roll-to-roll process. Changes in morphology, surface roughness, hydrophobicity, mechanical durability and chemical composition were evaluated using scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, contact angle, tensile strength measurements and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. The 2D nanomaterials-coated membranes were tested in membrane distillation (MD) experiments over 72 h and compared to pristine PVDF and PDA/PVDF membranes. Salt rejection and MD performance stability were evaluated using feedwaters with high concentrations of humic acid (150 ppm) and paraffin oil (200 ppm) simulating simple organic wastewater from oil and gas extraction. The flux decline ratio was measured in terms of percentage permeate loss per hour (%/h), to allow for future comparisons with studies with different experimental times. The pristine PVDF membrane failed after 10 h by pore-wetting due to fouling while the PDA/PVDF membrane had the largest flux decline ratio (0.3 %/h). The membranes coated with GO and hBN had flux decline ratios orders of magnitude lower (0.0021 ± 0.005 and 0.028 ± 0.01 %/h, respectively). All membranes had a high salt rejection (>99.9 %). The GO-coated membrane was the only membrane type that was able to treat both surfactant-containing and foulant-containing feedwaters. The improved performance is attributed to the decrease in both surface roughness and hydrophobicity, which reduces the adsorption of foulants onto the membrane surface. This work shows a facile, scalable method to overcome fouling limitations in MD.},

note = {Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Authors},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{67db9618dcaa42138b526da391a24bad,

title = {Reconciling conservation and development requires enhanced integration and broader aims: A cross-continental assessment of landscape approaches},

author = {Natalia Estrada-Carmona and Rachel Carmenta and James Reed and Ermias Betemariam and Fabrice Declerck and Thomas Falk and Abigail K. Hart and Sarah K. Jones and Fritz Kleinschroth and Matthew McCartney and Ruth Meinzen-Dick and Jeff Milder and Marcela Quintero and Roseline Remans and Diego Valbuena and Louise Willemen and Camilla Zanzanaini and Wei Zhang},

doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2024.08.014},

issn = {1479-2605},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-18},

journal = {Planet Earth},

volume = {7},

number = {10},

pages = {1858–1873},

publisher = {Natural Environment Research Council},

abstract = {Expectations for agricultural landscapes in subtropical and tropical regions are high, aiming for conservation and development amid climate change, unfair trade, poverty, and environmental degradation. Landscape approaches (LAs) are gaining momentum as means to reconcile expectations, although they face multiple challenges, including unclear distinctions among LAs and stakeholder involvement. We studied 380 LAs from three continents via questionnaires with landscape managers (2012–2015 and 2021) and identified three LA types through cluster analysis: an “integrated” type with longer-term, multisectoral goals involving various stakeholders early in the design and two shorter-term types focused on sectoral priorities of preservation or production. Better-performing LAs are associated with longevity, inclusivity, and diversified investments across goals, notably those enabling social justice. International stakeholder analysis shows broad support for LAs but identifies gaps between support and LAs’ needs. The growing interest in LAs is promising. Yet, underpinning effective and lasting LAs that reconcile multiple expectations requires better support.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{85a30e022c71471a9da66196657e7cbe,

title = {Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics},

author = {Matthew W. Jones and Sander Veraverbeke and Niels Andela and Stefan H. Doerr and Crystal Kolden and Guilherme Mataveli and M. Lucrecia Pettinari and Corinne Le Quéré and Thais M. Rosan and Guido R. Werf and Dave Wees and John T. Abatzoglou},

doi = {10.1126/science.adl5889},

issn = {0036-8075},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-18},

journal = {Science},

volume = {386},

number = {6719},

publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},

abstract = {Climate change increases fire-favorable weather in forests, but fire trends are also affected by multiple other controlling factors that are difficult to untangle. We use machine learning to systematically group forest ecoregions into 12 global forest pyromes, with each showing distinct sensitivities to climatic, human, and vegetation controls. This delineation revealed that rapidly increasing forest fire emissions in extratropical pyromes, linked to climate change, offset declining emissions in tropical pyromes during 2001 to 2023. Annual emissions tripled in one extratropical pyrome due to increases in fire-favorable weather, compounded by increased forest cover and productivity. This contributed to a 60% increase in forest fire carbon emissions from forest ecoregions globally. Our results highlight the increasing vulnerability of forests and their carbon stocks to fire disturbance under climate change.},

note = {Data and materials availability: Pyromes are provided in three geospatial formats at Zenodo (131); shapefiles; 0.25° grids; and 0.05° grids. Gridded correlations for all variables are also available at Zenodo (131). The R code used for clustering forest ecoregions into pyromes is also archived at Zenodo (131). The raw data representing burned area, carbon emissions, and all predictor variables in our analysis are publicly available (49, 58, 59, 61, 62, 67–70, 132), except for the lightning flash data from the WWLLN (63), which are subject to a commercial agreement but can be provided in a gridded and coarsened form upon request. Funding: This work was funded by the following: UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/V01417X/1 (M.W.J.); European Commission (E.C.) Horizon 2020 (H2020) project VERIFY grant 776810 (M.W.J.); São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) grants 2019/25701-8, 2020/15230-5 and 2023/03206-0 (G.M.); EC H2020 project FirEURisk grant no. 101003890 (S.H.D., M.L.P.); NERC project UK-FDRS grant NE/T003553/1 (S.H.D.); European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) FireCCI project contract no. 4000126706/19/I-NB (MLP); Royal Society grant RPR1191063 (C.L.Q.); National Science Foundation grant OAI-2019762 (JTA).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{86ffa79345b3424798a8a930de2fc259,

title = {Green ammonia adoption in shipping: Opportunities and challenges across the fuel supply chain},

author = {Abhilasha Fullonton and Amanda Lea-Langton and Fatima Madugu and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2024.106444},

issn = {0308-597X},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-15},

journal = {Marine Policy},

volume = {171},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The IMO’s 2023 revised targets increase pressure on shipping and trading organisations to urgently cut energy consumption and transition away from fossil fuels. Although there are several alternative fuel options for shipping, ammonia is a prominent contender. Green ammonia is produced from renewable hydrogen with no direct CO2 emissions when combusted, making it an important option to interrogate. This research uses a mixed methods approach, including analysing shipping stakeholders’ perspectives, to consider the full range of factors relating to its deployment and use. Challenges to its adoption include low fleet renewal as a result of uncertainties around being first movers, managing NOx and N2O emissions if used in a combustion engine and lack of economic incentives. Nevertheless, green ammonia's storage advantages over hydrogen, established experience of ammonia handling for the fertiliser industry and its direct emission free application in fuel cells, underpin interest in its development. The study emphasizes though that the on-ground realities of transitioning away from fossil fuels require significant developments across the entire fuel supply chain. This extends beyond considerations around ammonia’s technological viability and encompass changes needed to onboard and portside infrastructure, incentives to accelerate retrofit and fleet renewal, and recognition of risks posed by first-movers in the sector. Furthermore, with short timeliness associated with Paris targets, and anticipated rising costs of new fuel infrastructure, there is an imperative to implement mitigation policy that focuses on urgently reducing reliance on liquid fuels, while alternative fuel deployment is established at scale.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{e880e62e13c0476d96fff72de45fc102,

title = {Overconfidence in climate overshoot},

author = {Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Gaurav Ganti and Quentin Lejeune and Biqing Zhu and Peter Pfleiderer and Ruben Prütz and Philippe Ciais and Thomas L. Frölicher and Sabine Fuss and Thomas Gasser and Matthew J. Gidden and Chahan M. Kropf and Fabrice Lacroix and Robin Lamboll and Rosanne Martyr and Fabien Maussion and Jamie W. McCaughey and Malte Meinshausen and Matthias Mengel and Zebedee Nicholls and Yann Quilcaille and Benjamin Sanderson and Sonia I. Seneviratne and Jana Sillmann and Christopher J. Smith and Norman J. Steinert and Emily Theokritoff and Rachel Warren and Jeff Price and Joeri Rogelj},

doi = {10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9},

issn = {0028-0836},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-10},

journal = {Nature},

volume = {634},

number = {8033},

pages = {366–373},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2–5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.},

note = {Data availability statement: The PROVIDE v.1.2 scenario data used for Fig. 2 is available at Zenodo [69 ](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6963586). The data underlying the GFDL-ESM2M and NorESM2-LM simulations included in Fig. 3 and Extended Data Figs. 5 and 6 are available at Zenodo [70] (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11091132 and https://doi.org/10.11582/2022.00012). Data required to reproduce Extended Data Figs. 7 and 8 can be found at https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip6-dkrz/. Data required to reproduce Fig. 4 and Extended Data Figs. 3, 4, 9 and 10 are included in the code repository. Code availability statement: The analysis was performed with Python and spatial projections rely on the cartopy package. The scripts to replicate Figs. 2–5 are available at Zenodo [71] (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13208166). Funding information: The authors acknowledge support from the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmes of the European Union under grant agreement no. 101003687 (PROVIDE). G.G. acknowledges support from the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) under grant agreement no. 01LS2108D (CDR PoEt). T.G. also acknowledges support from the Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe research and innovation programmes of the European Union under grant agreement nos. 773421 (Nunataryuk) and 101056939 (RESCUE). J.S. is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) under Excellence Strategy of Germany—EXC 2037:CLICCS—Climate, Climatic Change, and Society—project no. 390683824, contribution to the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) of Universität Hamburg. The GFDL ESM2M simulations were conducted at the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre. B.S. acknowledges support from the Research Council of Norway under grant agreement no. 334811 (TRIFECTA).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{d767027fe3494540bf0d057381990ee8,

title = {Teleconnection and the Antarctic response to the Indian Ocean Dipole in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models},

author = {Arnab Sen and Pranab Deb and Adrian J. Matthews and Manoj M. Joshi},

doi = {10.1002/qj.4854},

issn = {0035-9009},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},

volume = {150},

number = {765},

pages = {5020–5036},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Tropical–Antarctic teleconnections are known to have large impacts on Antarctic climate variability at multiple timescales. Anomalous tropical convection triggers upper-level quasi-stationary Rossby waves, which propagate to high southern latitudes and impact the local environment. Here the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Antarctica was examined using daily gridded reanalysis data and the linear response theory method (LRTM) during September–November of 1980–2015. The individual contribution of the IOD over the Antarctic climate is challenging to quantify, as positive IOD events often co-occur with El Niño events. However, using the LRTM, the extratropical response due to a positive IOD was successfully extracted from the combined signal in the composite map of anomalous 250-hPa geopotential height. Applying the method to a set of models from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), significant differences were observed in the extratropical response to the IOD among the models, due to bias in the Rossby waveguide and IOD precipitation pattern. The LRTM was then applied to evaluate the extratropical response of the 850-hPa temperature, wind anomalies, and sea-ice concentration anomalies in observation data, as well as models that represented both the IOD precipitation and the extratropical waveguide adequately. The IOD induced cold southerly flow over the west of the Ross Sea, Weddell Sea, and Antarctic Peninsula, causing cold surface-temperature anomalies and the increase of sea ice, and warm northerly flow over the east of the Ross Sea and Amundsen Sea, causing warm surface-temperature anomalies and the decrease of sea ice. We recommend the LRTM as a complementary method to standard analysis of climate variability from observations and global climate models.},

note = {ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme and the climate modeling groups for producing and sharing the CMIP outputs, which can be accessed from https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/esgf-ceda/. NSIDC dataset was downloaded from https://nsidc.org/data. NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II and CMAP datasets were downloaded from SEN ET AL. NOAA PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their website at https://psl.noaa.gov. ERA5 dataset can be downloaded from https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu. The HadISST dataset was downloaded from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, from their website at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/. AS and PD were supported by Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur. We sincerely thank the anonymous reviewers whose valuable comments and suggestions helped to improve the readability of our paper.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{c5a58e94af7e410283a846d6d17459f1,

title = {Reviewing the science on 50 years of conservation: Knowledge production biases and lessons for practice},

author = {Neil M. Dawson and Brendan Coolsaet and Aditi Bhardwaj and David Brown and Bosco Lliso and Jacqueline Loos and Laura Mannocci and Adrian Martin and Malena Oliva and Unai Pascual and Pasang Sherpa and Thomas Worsdell},

doi = {10.1007/s13280-024-02049-w},

issn = {0044-7447},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {AMBIO},

volume = {53},

number = {10},

pages = {1395–1413},

publisher = {Allen Press Inc.},

abstract = {Drawing on 662 studies from 102 countries, we present a systematic review of published empirical studies about site-level biodiversity conservation initiated between 1970 and 2019. Within this sample, we find that knowledge production about the Global South is largely produced by researchers in the Global North, implying a neocolonial power dynamic. We also find evidence of bias in reported ecological outcomes linked to lack of independence in scientific studies, serving to uphold narratives about who should lead conservation. We explore relationships in the sample studies between conservation initiative types, the extent of Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ influence in governance, and reported social and ecological outcomes. Findings reveal positive ecological and social outcomes are strongly associated with higher levels of influence of Indigenous Peoples and local communities and their institutions, implying equity in conservation practice should be advanced not only for moral reasons, but because it can enhance conservation effectiveness.},

note = {Data availability statement: The dataset for this study is available at Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7688777. Acknowledgements: This study was funded by the Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB) of the French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB) under the Just Conservation project. Additional support was provided by Lille Catholic University under the AMBROISE funding call. JL acknowledges funding by the Robert-Bosch foundation for the project “Wildlife, Values, Justice”. UP acknowledges BC3’s Maria de Maeztu excellence accreditation 2023-2026 (Ref. CEX2021-001201- M) provided by MCIN/AEI/https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{e4d261e424ec499bbe5839d114d41b33,

title = {Permafrost region greenhouse gas budgets suggest a weak CO2 sink and CH4 and N2O sources, but magnitudes differ between top-down and bottom-up methods},

author = {G. Hugelius and J. Ramage and E. Burke and A. Chatterjee and T. L. Smallman and T. Aalto and A. Bastos and C. Biasi and J. G. Canadell and N. Chandra and F. Chevallier and P. Ciais and J. Chang and L. Feng and M. W. Jones and T. Kleinen and M. Kuhn and R. Lauerwald and J. Liu and E. López-Blanco and I. T. Luijkx and M. E. Marushchak and S. M. Natali and Y. Niwa and D. Olefeldt and P. I. Palmer and P. K. Patra and W. Peters and S. Potter and B. Poulter and B. M. Rogers and W. J. Riley and M. Saunois and E. A. G. Schuur and R. L. Thompson and C. Treat and A. Tsuruta and M. R. Turetsky and A. -M. Virkkala and C. Voigt and J. Watts and Q. Zhu and B. Zheng},

doi = {10.1029/2023GB007969},

issn = {0886-6236},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},

volume = {38},

number = {10},

publisher = {American Geophysical Union},

abstract = {Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present-day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling and process-based models) and top-down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land-to-atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches show a sink of CO2 in natural ecosystems (bottom-up: −29 (−709, 455), top-down: −587 (−862, −312) Tg CO2-C yr−1) and sources of CH4 (bottom-up: 38 (22, 53), top-down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH4-C yr−1) and N2O (bottom-up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top-down: 0.09 (−0.19, 0.37) Tg N2O-N yr−1). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP-100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP-20), the region is a net GHG source because CH4 dominates the total forcing. The net CO2 sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO2 emissions as well as CH4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N2O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process-based models and the compilation of process-model ensembles for CH4 and N2O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well-distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: Process-based model simulations were accessed from their archives, including the CMIP5 archive (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5) and CMIP6 archive (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6). We downloaded and extracted carbon stocks and fluxes from both the Permafrost Carbon Network (PCN) and Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) ensembles via the ORNL DAAC (Huntzinger et al., 2018; McGuire et al., 2022, respectively). Data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phases 2 and 3 (ISIMIP2a and ISIMIP2b) is available from https://www.isimip.org. CARDAMOM data is available via https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/7505. All data sources for data-driven ecosystem upscaling are provided by Ramage et al. (2024). Monthly data for all models included in the top-down inversion ensembles are available via the Bolin Centre Database (Hugelius et al., 2024). The CARDAMOM-permafrost data set can be freely downloaded from https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/7505. Funding information: European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme to the Nunataryuk. Grant Number: 773421; Swedish Research Council. Grant Number: 2022-04839; Swedish Academy of Science. Grant Number: FR-2021/0004; Atmosphere and Climate Competence Center. Grant Number: 337550; National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Grant Number: 80NM0018D0004; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Grant Number: 01LP1921A; Natural Environment Research Council. Grant Number: NE/R016518/1, NE/N018079/1},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{38b2154ab8dd4b0b93047dc03558a38e,

title = {Exploring intersectional approaches to waste through grassroots innovations in the U.K.},

author = {Cat Acheson and Tom Hargreaves and Helen Pallett and Gill Seyfang},

doi = {10.1080/13549839.2024.2368523},

issn = {1354-9839},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {Local Environment},

volume = {29},

number = {10},

pages = {1287–1306},

publisher = {Routledge},

abstract = {Waste is an urgent global challenge. Patterns of excessive resource consumption and disposal are causing immense environmental and social damage. This paper argues that solutions to the waste crisis must be intersectional – addressing the ways in which multiple, overlapping forms of oppression are embedded in resource consumption and the generation of waste. Existing approaches to reducing waste in the U.K. and other Global North contexts have largely failed to take such an approach, but we identify grassroots innovations as a movement which may be well positioned to confront waste challenges in an intersectional way. Drawing on 19 interviews with practitioners and experts in the field of Grassroots Waste Innovations (GWIs), as well as analysis of select documents relating to key waste prevention projects, the article investigates the extent to which GWIs are taking an intersectional approach, and what this looks like. The research finds that GWIs are not generally understood in an intersectional way, but some compelling examples can be found. Framings, project design, and coalition-building emerge as key features of an intersectional approach. However, there are also some significant constraining factors. These include concerns that placing too much emphasis on multiple political causes will be off-putting to participants, lack of capacity, unhelpful funding structures, and the risk of tokenising people from marginalised groups in an attempt to increase diversity.},

note = {Funding information: The authors would like to thank Norfolk County Council for contributing funding to this research project.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}