Tyndall Centre Books

@book{36b430041fe642c2baf0ccf01bcb5168,

title = {On Hydrogen},

author = {Amanda Lea-Langton and William Bodel and Lin Ma and Kevin Taylor and Christopher Jones and Alice Larkin and Aoife Foley and Dlzar Al Kez and Faraedoon Ahmed and Vincenzo Spallina and Maria Sharmina},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-01-01},

publisher = {policy@manchester},

address = {United Kingdom},

abstract = {Policy@Manchester’s publication On Hydrogen provides evidence-led policy recommendations from energy experts at The University of Manchester on future hydrogen policy.The UK currently relies heavily on fossil fuels for transport, industry and power production. But this must change if we are to meet our net zero ambitions. Industry and policy have extolled the potential of hydrogen’s capability to decarbonise the most challenging sectors of our economy. So, what can be done to reach this potential in practice? On Hydrogen features expert articles on the production and storage of hydrogen, the decarbonisation of industry and transport, standards for low carbon hydrogen, and the future role of hydrogen interconnectors. Our research-led recommendations provide policymakers with evidence and ideas that can advance the future of hydrogen in the UK energy sector.},

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@book{9b73ca8e5ab14c9f874dc0f0980d5ee3,

title = {The Effects of Wars: Lessons from the War in Ukraine},

author = {Pierre Bocquillon and Suzanne Doyle and Toby S. James and Ra Mason and Soul Park and Matilde Rosini},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-12-09},

publisher = {Routledge},

address = {United States},

abstract = {War has been an ever-present feature of human existence. The analysis of wars has tended to focus on either their causes or the military and strategic consequences of a conflict. This book argues that war can have a much wider impact across layers of society that go beyond international boundaries. It presents a heuristic multi-disciplinary framework for analysing the ripple and backwash effects across five connected analytical layers around the world: material; human capabilities; economic; values belief and attitudes; policy and governance; and power. Through this framework, the book introduces a set of empirically rich and theoretically informed studies which examine the first consequences of the war in Ukraine following the invasion of Russia in February 2022. This multi-disciplinary approach shows that the effects of the war were much deeper and sustained. This volume will be of interest to students and scholars of international humanitarian law, security studies, peace and conflict studies, and European history. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of Policy Studies.},

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@book{e352cf2cdaec4af4be2231f09ac88473,

title = {Unlocking Norfolk's Potential: Regional Infrastructure, an Executive Sand Pit},

author = {Johanna Forster and Benjamin Little},

editor = {Mark Bentley},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-06},

publisher = {UEA Publishing Project},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

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}

@book{d2c242076f51466887a4d70a3656f5aa,

title = {On Infrastructure},

author = {Janet Yong and Michael Hodson and Andrew Mcmeekin and Andrew Lockhart and Arijit De and Anne Stafford and Ian Mell and Isabelle Bi-Swinglehurst and Cecilia Wong and Wei Zheng and Jeremy Carter and Ella Foggitt and Alison Leigh Browne},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

publisher = {policy@manchester},

address = {United Kingdom},

series = {<i>Thought leadership and ideas on infrastructure</i>},

abstract = {Effective infrastructure is critical for delivering economic growth, providing essential services, and addressing the national challenges ahead. The infrastructure decisions made today will impact generations to come.On Infrastructure features expert articles on how we can best meet our infrastructure needs; reimagining our transport systems with new technology, the impacts of climate change on our essential supply chains, the transition towards sustainable urban development, and the action needed for better healthcare systems.},

keywords = {},

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@book{d222b510b3b94d1cb6fb62474a60d940,

title = {Carbon for Chemicals: How can biomass contribute to the defossilisation of the chemicals sector?},

author = {Joanna Sparks and Cristiane Scaldaferri and Andrew Welfle and Patricia Thornley and Ashley Victoria and Caspar Donnison and Jason Hallet and Nilay Shah and Mirjam Roder and Paul Milnes and David Bott and Adrian Higson and Neil Bruce},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-08-07},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

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@book{a8e661ebe25649abbbe625e04c196b7d,

title = {Bio-based Chemicals Climate Change Performance LCA Review: Supplementary Materials Report of: Carbon for Chemicals - How can biomass contribute to the defossilisation of the chemicals sector?},

author = {Andrew Welfle},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-08-07},

publisher = {Supergen Bioenergy Hub},

address = {United Kingdom},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {book}

}

@book{12bd2e5488bf4cc599dbf833ee7f3c7c,

title = {Navigating the Backlash: The Future of British Climate Strategy},

author = {Matthew Paterson and Paul Tobin and Holly Brazier-Tope and Charlotte Burns and Caroline Kuzemko and Matthew Lockwood and Sean McDaniel and Jamie Peters and Chantal Sullivan-Thomsett and Rebecca Willis},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-06-20},

publisher = {The University of Manchester Sustainable Consumption Institute},

abstract = {This Report details the changing political dynamic around climate change in the UK, where there has been a breakdown of pro-climate consensus since 2021. This Report is aimed at campaigners who wish to enhance the UK’s climate policy ambition, both those within NGOs and those within all political parties. It is also written for researchers and journalists seeking greater contextual information for their policy design and reporting work. We document the rise of a backlash against climate policy in the UK, which started in 2021 and has achieved significant impacts on the UK government’s approaches to climate changes. This backlash has changed the nature of Conservative-Labour competition around climate change, from one focused around policy performance, to one questioning how ambitious and rapid UK climate policy should be. The implications have been that, at times, the Conservative Party has assumed anti-Net Zero ideas, while the Labour Party has moderated its ambitions. At the same time, the rise of Reform on the right, and the ongoing presence of the Green Party on the left, have created new dilemmas for Conservative and Labour leaders in building and maintaining their political coalitions. These changes have created new dilemmas for party leaders about how to pursue climate policy. Campaigners and policy designers will benefit from understanding these dilemmas, and how they affect strategies elevating climate policy ambition.},

note = {Acknowledgements: For funding the costs of making this Report, and the workshop that informed it, we gratefully acknowledge the support of the Sustainable Consumption Institute at the University of Manchester, as well as the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), having funded Paul Tobin via grant ES/S014500/1. We are grateful to Policy@manchester for help with contacting attendees and circulating the Report. We are grateful to James Patterson who also attended our workshop along with the authors listed above},

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@book{b1552993c22f4d3aab1616a6e2a2c42b,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Wood Buffalo National Park, Alberta/Northwest Territories, Canada under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy J. Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.11658152},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-06-13},

abstract = {Wood Buffalo National Park is among the bottom 45% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. While some of the higher elevations are projected to be relatively resilient to climate change, many parts of the park are projected to require high degrees of adaptation effort, even with 1.5°C of warming, including areas critical for endangered species like the Whooping Crane. Averaged over the entire area of this large park, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 45.6% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with none of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. Even if warming levels were held to 2°C, only 0.1% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 73% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by -0.4° (October) - +2.8°C (January). With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990 for May-December (up to 1 in 20 years for June and July). July – September have seen increases in precipitation, with the rest seeing declines. Models project that all months will become somewhat wetter, but the additional precipitation may not make up for the increases in temperature. The number of months classified as in severe drought has nearly doubled between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. Between warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C (global, relative to pre-industrial) the number of months in severe drought is projected to more than double. Biodiversity adaptation options will require a shift away from business-as-usual conservation with targeted adaptation becoming increasingly necessary, taking into account changes in extreme events (heat and severe drought). Typical resilience measures such as removing other stressors will likely be insufficient, even with only 1.5°C warming. At higher warming levels, increasingly complex adaptation measures will be required, with an understanding that much of the landscape may be under stress and beginning to transition to other ecosystem types.},

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@book{30bc05bf6d2e467b87449d183c3608f6,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Waterton Lakes National Park Of Canada under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy J. Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.12707111},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-06-13},

publisher = {Zenodo},

abstract = {Waterton Lakes National Park is among the top 46% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. While the higher elevations are projected to be relatively resilient to climate change, even at 4°C, many parts of the lower elevations of the park are projected to require increasing levels of adaptation effort as warming levels exceed 2°C. Averaged over the entire area of this large park, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 51.7% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 8.6% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 47.4% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 77.1% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by -0.4° - +1.8°C (January). With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990 for April-October (up to 1 in 20 years for July). Eight months have seen decreases in precipitation (December-March, May, and July-September) with the rest seeing increases. Models project that most months will become wetter except for June-September. These changes in precipitation, accompanied by warmer weather, suggest a potential increase in overall fire risk. The number of months classified as being in severe drought has gone up by half between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015; the number of waterlogged months have also increased suggesting an increase in the extremes in both directions. With 2°C warming (global, relative to pre-industrial) the number of months in severe drought is projected to almost double. Biodiversity adaptation options generally allow for business-as-usual conservation, especially at higher elevations, taking into account changes in extreme events (heat and severe drought). However, lower elevation areas would need increasing levels of adaptation effort, especially with warming levels of 2°C and above.},

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@book{9b340f0a069c48db91403ebf83510c07,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Necedah National Wildlife Refuge, Wisconsin under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy J. Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.12087618},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-06-11},

publisher = {Zenodo},

abstract = {Necedah National Wildlife Refuge is among the top 20% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. This refuge is projected to be largely resilient to climate change with warming to 2°C. With 3°C of warming the resiliency drops with some additional adaptation effort needed. At warming levels above 3°C, adaptation efforts will need substantially greater effort, especially in many of the western parts of the refuge. Averaged over the entire area of the refuge, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 69% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with none of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 100% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 83.6% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.2° - 2.1°C. With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990 for April -November (up to 1 in 20 years for July - September). Most months have seen increases in precipitation except for March, September and November which have shown declines. Models project that all months will become somewhat wetter (except for drier July and August), but the additional precipitation may not make up for the increases in temperature. The number of months classified as in severe drought declined slightly between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. However, between warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C (global, relative to pre-industrial) the number of months in severe drought is projected to nearly double. Biodiversity adaptation options will largely allow for business-as-usual conservation taking into account changes in extreme events (heat and severe drought). Typical resilience measures such as removing other stressors will likely be critical, especially at warming levels above 2.0°C warming. At higher warming levels, increasingly complex adaptation measures will be required.With the projected impacts of climate change on Wood Buffalo National Park (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11658152) there will be increasing need for additional breeding areas for the endangered Whooping Crane. Necedah National Wildlife Refuge has been one of the primary areas for reintroduction of this species. While there have been some successes, there have also been setbacks owing to black flies. Projections show that Necedah remains a refugia for birds and, from a climate point of view, is important to try and retain as a breeding area for this endangered species. While the Wallace Initiative does not have models (there are no occurrence data in GBIF) for the key black fly species impacting Whooping Cranes, fly species richness overall is projected to decline. The projected impacts on Wood Buffalo National Park suggest that captive breeding and reintroduction efforts need to be expanded and the number of reintroduction areas increased, taking into account the projected impacts of climate change.},

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@book{3b741fc7bf19475ab9efd1be0b6568b4,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Big Bend National Park, Texas under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.12667438},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-06-11},

publisher = {Zenodo},

abstract = {Big Bend National Park, Texas, is among the top 26% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. Big Bend is projected to be largely resilient to climate change to 2°C warming. As such, business as usual conservation, taking into account changes in the likelihood of extreme events (heat and drought), should largely be adequate. Beyond that, only the higher elevations are expected to remain resilient with the lower elevations requiring increasing adaptation effort. Individual species will be expected to shift upward in elevation, if they are able and those at the very top of the mountains may be extirpated. Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 65.1% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with only 4% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 54.4% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 81.7% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.4° – 1.4°C (February). With warming levels of 2°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that currently seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990 for all months except May and June (new average equal to that seen in 1 in 20 years). Eight months have seen decreases in precipitation (especially September), and the rest wetter, especially July. Models project that all months except July and August will become drier. The number of months with severe drought has more than quadrupled between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. With 2°C warming, more than half of the months in a 30-year period are projected to be in severe drought, with severe drought lengths of more than three years possible.Biodiversity adaptation options generally only allow for business-as-usual conservation to 2.0°C, but this would only be possible if changes in extreme events (especially summer heat and severe drought) were taken into consideration. Even with warming of 2°C and less, water may become increasingly scarce so water holes or guzzlers may be required to maintain existing biodiversity. With warming above 2°C adaptation will become increasingly difficult as lengths of severe drought increase. Only the highest elevations in the park would be able to potentially get by with business-as-usual conservation.},

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@book{cfb9cf5a0dc145738c2e1346dca90bb9,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Shenandoah National Park under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy J. Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.11622545},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-06-11},

abstract = {Shenandoah National Park is among the top 16% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. As a park with topography running along the Blue Ridge Mountains, much of the park is resilient to climate change, even with higher levels of warming. Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 69.3% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 32.8% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. However, if warming levels were held to 2°C, 97.2% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 89.4% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by -0.2° (November) - +1.2°C. With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 20 years in 1961-1990 for June – September. All but three months have seen increases in precipitation, but August, October and November have been drier. Models project that most months will become wetter except for October. However, the number of months with severe drought has increased slightly between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. With 2°C warming (global, relative to pre-industrial) the number of months in severe drought more than triples. Biodiversity adaptation options generally allow for business-as-usual conservation, especially at higher elevations, taking into account changes in extreme events (especially severe drought). However, lower elevation areas would need increasing levels of adaptation effort, especially with warming levels of 3°C and above.},

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@book{6fa930dd7cd447e0ace32ff26133e596,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Aransas National Wildlife Refuge, Texas, U.S. under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy J. Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.12100230},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-06-11},

publisher = {Zenodo},

abstract = {Aransas National Wildlife Refuge is among the top 27% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. This refuge is projected to be largely resilient to climate change with warming to 2°C. With 3°C of warming and above the resiliency drops to the point that business as usual conservation will likely be insufficient. Averaged over the entire area of the refuge, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 64.6% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with none of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 55.3% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 81.8% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.1° - 1.5°C. With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990 for March -October (up to 1 in 20 years for June - August). Half of the months have become wetter and the rest (February, May-September) drier. Models project that most months will become drier (except for June and September). The number of months classified as in severe drought have increased substantially between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. With warming levels of 2°C (global, relative to pre-industrial) the number of months in severe drought is projected to be double that of 1986-2015 with the possibility of droughts lasting 1-2 years. Biodiversity adaptation options will largely allow for business-as-usual conservation taking into account changes in extreme events (heat and severe drought) up to 2°C warming. Typical resilience measures such as removing other stressors will be critical. At higher warming levels, increasingly complex adaptation measures will be required. These reports do not include the projected impacts of sea level rise, and this will have large impacts on parts of the refuge. The general topography allows for potential migration of the saltmarsh inland. While many of the sea level rise impacts are already ‘locked in’, the timing is less certain.},

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@book{9b439bc9acad46e39120db1b20d58e52,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Yosemite National Park under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy J. Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.11576810},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-06-10},

publisher = {Zenodo},

abstract = {Yosemite National Park is among the top 24% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. As a park with mixed topography, higher elevation areas are projected to be more resilient than lower elevation areas (including Yosemite Valley). Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 66.5% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 33.9% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. However, if warming levels were held to 2°C, 77.1% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 84.4% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.4°-1.2°C. With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990 for all but three months. April stays about the same, but July and August have a projected average temperature the same as experienced in 1 in 20 years between 1961-1990. Seven months have seen declines in precipitation with the rest seeing increases. There appears to be a seasonal shift with drier summers and autumns but wetter winters. The number of months with severe drought has increased between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. With 2°C warming (global, relative to pre-industrial) the number of consecutive months in severe drought more than doubles with the possibility of droughts exceeding two years in duration. Biodiversity adaptation options would include business as usual adaptation at higher elevations, taking into account changes in extreme events (especially severe drought). Areas at lower elevations, including Yosemite Valley, would need increasing levels of adaptation effort even at lower levels of warming.},

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@book{09ef25dbba974b77a21a5a19a2a05fb1,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Acadia National Park under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy J. Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.11638873},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-06-07},

abstract = {Acadia National Park is among the top 29% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. Much of the park is moderately resilient to climate change, even with higher levels of warming. The highest areas (e.g., Cadillac Mountain) are more resilient than areas at sea level. Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 62.6% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 2.4% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. However, if warming levels were held to 2°C, 95.5% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 84.6% of its terrestrial biodiversity. Thus, holding warming to 2°C or below would make a large difference in the resilience of the park.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.2° - 1.8°C (December). With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 20 years in 1961-1990 for June – October. All but three months have seen increases in precipitation, but May, August, and November have been drier. Models project that most months will become wetter except for September. The number of months with severe drought has declined slightly between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015, while those being waterlogged have increased. Biodiversity adaptation options generally allow for business-as-usual conservation, especially at higher elevations, taking into account changes in extreme events (especially heat). However, lower elevation areas would need some additional adaptation effort, especially with warming levels of 3°C and above.},

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@book{39ac8be0db5f4c65b10ffaad67bd6058,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Cairngorms National Park, Scotland under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.12666955},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-05-28},

publisher = {Zenodo},

abstract = {Cairngorms National Park, Scotland, is among the top 5% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. Cairngorms is projected to be largely resilient to climate change, even with 4°C warming. As such, business as usual conservation, taking into account changes in the likelihood of extreme events (heat and drought), should largely be adequate. Individual species will be expected to shift upward in elevation, if they are able and those at the very top of the mountains may be extirpated. Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 82.6% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 76.7% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 100% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 94.5% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.3° – 1.1°C. With warming levels of 2°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that currently seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990 for all months except September (new average equal to that seen in 1 in 20 years). Nine months have seen increases in precipitation (especially October), and the rest drier, especially September. Models project that all months except June-August will become wetter. The number of months with severe drought has more than halved between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. Biodiversity adaptation options generally only allow for business-as-usual conservation to 4.0°C, taking into account changes in extreme events (especially summer heat and reductions in precipitation).},

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@book{88b17b5262294edb9d1205718fc6634a,

title = {UK and Global Bioenergy Resource Model (UKGBRM): QA Review},

author = {Andrew Welfle and Mairi Black and Isabela Butnar},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-05-28},

publisher = {Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy},

address = {United Kingdom},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@book{926ac0dadab54e9c9dc36bd4d4023602,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Jau National Park, Brazil under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.12706755},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-05-27},

publisher = {Zenodo},

abstract = {Jau National Park, Brazil is the largest national park in South America and among the top 46% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. In general, this national park is resilient to climate change to 1.5°C. However, by 3°C the park is beginning to transform to a different habitat type with major adaptation needed to maintain biodiversity across multiple taxa. Business as usual conservation, taking into account changes in the likelihood of extreme events, would only be adequate to approximately 2°C. Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 51.3% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with none of the reserve remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, only 6% of the area would remain an overall climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 76.9% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.5° – 0.8°C. With warming levels of 1.5°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 20 years in 1961-1990 for all months. Eight months have become drier and four wetter. Models project that nine months will become drier with only March, April and December becoming wetter. The number of months with severe drought has decreased by half between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. However, with climate change the number of months in severe drought are projected to increase substantially. With 2°C warming, severe droughts lasting longer than two years are projected to occur. Biodiversity adaptation options generally only allow for business-as-usual conservation to 2.0°C, especially in the eastern parts of the park, taking into account changes in extreme events (especially heat and severe drought). However, at temperatures above 2.0°C, all of the park will require substantial amounts of adaptation to maintain much of the current biodiversity, especially plants. At temperatures much above 2°C facilitated change may be an adaptation strategy to consider.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {book}

}

@book{f4993278a143495bbbe424b016e93cd2,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Virunga National Park, DRC under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.12666217},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-05-22},

publisher = {Zenodo},

abstract = {Critically important for the endangered Mountain Gorilla, Virunga National Park, Democratic Republic of Congo, is among the top 46% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. Even as a park with varying topography, Virunga appears to be vulnerable to climate change, especially once temperatures exceed 2°C warming. Business as usual conservation, even taking into account changes in the likelihood of extreme events, will not be adequate except in the highest areas of the park. Additional adaptation will be needed to protect the existing species there. Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 51.9% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 10.8% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, only 22.6% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 66.8% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.4° – 0.8°C. With warming levels of 1.5°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 20 years in 1961-1990 for all months. Seven months have seen declines in precipitation (especially April), and the rest wetter, especially January and October. Models project that April, May, July and September will become drier and the rest increase or not change. The number of months with severe drought has more than doubled between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. Biodiversity adaptation options generally only allow for business-as-usual conservation to 4.0°C in the Rwenzori and Virunga Mountain areas of the park, taking into account changes in extreme events (especially heat and severe drought). These include the areas where Mountain Gorillas are located. At temperatures above 2.0°C, much of the rest of the park will require increasing levels of adaptation. The human population around the park is projected to increase substantially and this will likely have impacts on the park as a whole and needs to be carefully monitored. Between 1992 and 2020 areas in the park have already been converted into agricultural land.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {book}

}

@book{8437bcd741db46d79f42247389d7f978,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Okapi Wildlife Reserve, Democratic Republic of Congo under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.12706114},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-05-22},

publisher = {Zenodo},

abstract = {Critically important for the Okapi, and making up approximately 20% of the Ituri Forest, Okapi Wildlife Reserve, Democratic Republic of Congo, is among the top 40% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. In general, the western portions of the reserve are slightly more resilient to climate change, however as warming levels exceed 2°C, plant biodiversity is projected to be more exposed to climate change, indicating a potential climate driven decline of plant species richness. Mammals and birds fare somewhat better, with the western portions resilient to 3°C warming, but the potential loss of habitat would magnify the projected impacts on birds and mammals. As such, business as usual conservation, taking into account changes in the likelihood of extreme events, may be adequate except in the eastern parts of the reserve, at least to 2°C warming. Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 56.5% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with none of the reserve remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity (10.9% for mammals). If warming levels were held to 2°C, only 0.3% of the area would remain an overall climatic refugia (but 80% for mammals) and the area would remain climatically suitable for 68.6% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.4° – 0.8°C. With warming levels of 1.5°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 20 years in 1961-1990 for all months except January (new average equal to that seen on 1 in 3 years). Half of the months have become drier and the other half wetter. Models project that April-June will become drier and the rest increase. The number of months with severe drought has increased somewhat between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015 and this trend is projected to continue. With 4°C warming, severe droughts lasting more than one year are projected to occur. Biodiversity adaptation options generally only allow for business-as-usual conservation to 2.0°C, especially in the western part of the preserve, taking into account changes in extreme events (especially heat and severe drought). However, at temperatures above 2.0°C all of the reserve will require substantial amounts of adaptation to maintain much of the current biodiversity, especially plants. In general, mammals tend to fare somewhat better than biodiversity as a whole but would face indirect impacts from climate-driven changes in habitat.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {book}

}

@book{70b1a230ccac4a6eb5a1d00a7b583e69,

title = {From Launch to Business Insight: Developing a framework to assess the environmental cost of satellite data with consideration of technical, economic and governance aspects.},

author = {John Mackintosh and Lucy Armitage and Ciara Mcgrath and Smith and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Craig Thomas and Andrew Iwanoczko and Joey Tabone},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-05-22},

abstract = {With the rapid growth of the space industry in the UK and the prospect of many future launches, the environmental consequences may be significant in the near future. To assist with this, a set of categories to define an ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) type assessment system for space missions is ultimately proposed. Research into categories for a framework was undertaken with gaps in the literature identified, alongside discussions with industry partners in sustainability consulting and academic experts on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and policy. LCA, in theory, is appropriate for scoring design, manufacture and launch phases of the space mission lifecycle, but further work on space specific methods is needed. Examples have been found of carbon scoring for launch vehicles and spaceports which could feed into the framework but these are limited in number and scope. Methods have been identified for launch modelling using radiative forcing and propulsion modelling. Procedures currently exist for sustainability scoring of in orbit operations and regarding debris mitigation such as the Space Sustainability Rating (SSR) therefore, whilst it is acknowledged, this area is not the focus of this report. Other areas of literature review include the circular economy of the space industry. Sources outline the theoretical benefit of this and methods have been proposed on calculating the value of the resources currently in orbit. Earth monitoring contributions to sustainable development goals are also explored. Future recommendations include development of extensive space industry specific LCA databases. Further work in the roadmap ought to contain a more detailed approach, with future projects focusing on and finalising scoring metrics for each category. Space sector entities with goals of developing ESG credentials should be identified as future partners to ultimately expand the investigations and reporting rigour of UK Space Sector entities.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {book}

}

@book{644e8e771f22477695c929283b590222,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.12666571},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-05-21},

abstract = {Critically important for the endangered Mountain Gorilla, Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda, is among the top 1% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. Volcanoes is projected to be largely resilient to climate change, even with 4°C warming. As such, business as usual conservation, taking into account changes in the likelihood of extreme events (heat and drought), should largely be adequate. Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 92.3% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 97.7% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 100% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 98.4% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.4° – 0.8°C. With warming levels of 1.5°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 20 years in 1961-1990 for all months. Eight months have seen declines in precipitation (especially April), and the rest wetter, especially January and October. Models project that April - July and September will become drier and the rest increase. The number of months with severe drought nearly doubled between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. Biodiversity adaptation options generally only allow for business-as-usual conservation to 4.0°C, taking into account changes in extreme events (especially heat and severe drought). The human population around the park is projected to increase substantially and this could impact on the park needing carefully monitoring. Between 1992 and 2020 areas in the park have already been converted into agricultural land.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {book}

}

@book{19719f8de53e4aec940ff29a00a45edf,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Ngorongoro Conservation Area under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy J. Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.11384440},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-05-21},

abstract = {Output from Wallace's pARCs. This report on the Ngorongoro Conservation Area looks at observed climate, human population, and landcover change as well as projected changes to climate (including drought), biodiversity and adaptation effort for biodiversity.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {book}

}

@book{20149fd2bfb143ceb1e7851811518af4,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Mgahinga Gorilla National Park, Uganda under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.12666771},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-05-21},

publisher = {Zenodo},

abstract = {Critically important for the endangered Mountain Gorilla, Mgahinga Gorilla National Park, Uganda, is among the top 3% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. Mgahinga is projected to be largely resilient to climate change, even with 4°C warming. As such, business as usual conservation, taking into account changes in the likelihood of extreme events (heat and drought), should largely be adequate. Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 86.7% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 97.7% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 100% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 96.7% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.4° – 0.8°C. With warming levels of 1.5°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 20 years in 1961-1990 for all months. Seven months have seen declines in precipitation (especially April), and the rest wetter, especially January and October. Models project that April - July and September will become drier and the rest increase. The number of months with severe drought has more than doubled between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. Biodiversity adaptation options generally only allow for business-as-usual conservation to 4.0°C, taking into account changes in extreme events (especially heat and severe drought). The human population around the park is projected to increase substantially and this could impact on the park needing carefully monitoring. Between 1992 and 2020 areas in the park have already been converted into agricultural land.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {book}

}

@book{7640288b2e474ab9a575751b49e51246,

title = {Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda under differing levels of warming},

author = {Jeff Price and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Erin Graham and Timothy Osborn and Rachel Warren},

doi = {10.5281/zenodo.12665165},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-05-21},

publisher = {Zenodo},

abstract = {Critically important for the endangered Mountain Gorilla (containing nearly half of the population), Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda, is among the top 21% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. As a park with varying topography, the higher elevations are more resilient to climate change, however most of the southern portions of the park are resilient to 4°C warming. As such, business as usual conservation, taking into account changes in the likelihood of extreme events, will be adequate except in the most northern parts of the park. Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 66.8% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 40.9% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 85.8% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 88.4% of its terrestrial biodiversity.Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.5° – 0.8°C. With warming levels of 1.5°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 20 years in 1961-1990 for all months. Seven months have seen declines in precipitation (especially April), and the rest wetter, especially January and October. Models project that April, May, July and September will become drier and the rest increase or not change. The number of months with severe drought has more than doubled between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. Biodiversity adaptation options generally only allow for business-as-usual conservation to 4.0°C in the southern part of the park, taking into account changes in extreme events (especially heat and severe drought). At temperatures above 3.0°C the northern parts of the park will require increasing levels of adaptation. Mammals tend to fare somewhat better than biodiversity as a whole.The human population around the park is projected to increase substantially and this will likely have impacts on the park as a whole and needs to be carefully monitored.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {book}

}