Tyndall Centre Journal Articles
2022
Carmichael, Fiona; Darko, Christian K.; Kanji, Shireen; Vasilakos, Nicholas
The contribution of girls’ longer hours in unpaid work to gender gaps in early adult employment: Evidence from Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam Journal Article
In: Feminist Economics, 2022, ISSN: 1354-5701.
@article{7421d01365b841718055449603de8dcc,
title = {The contribution of girls’ longer hours in unpaid work to gender gaps in early adult employment: Evidence from Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam},
author = {Fiona Carmichael and Christian K. Darko and Shireen Kanji and Nicholas Vasilakos},
doi = {10.1080/13545701.2022.2084559},
issn = {1354-5701},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-07-21},
journal = {Feminist Economics},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Across many countries girls perform more unpaid work than boys. This article shows how time spent in unpaid household work by young women and girls contributes to the gender pay gap which is already evident by age 22. We analyse employment participation, type of employment and wages using five waves of the Young Lives longitudinal survey for Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. Longer hours in unpaid household work in adolescence positively predict later employment participation but negatively predict job quality, that is a job with a private or public organization, and hourly earnings, particularly for women. Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions of the male female wage gap show the female penalty for past household work is due to longer hours of such work rather than a higher female penalty for a given amount of unpaid work.},
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Across many countries girls perform more unpaid work than boys. This article shows how time spent in unpaid household work by young women and girls contributes to the gender pay gap which is already evident by age 22. We analyse employment participation, type of employment and wages using five waves of the Young Lives longitudinal survey for Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. Longer hours in unpaid household work in adolescence positively predict later employment participation but negatively predict job quality, that is a job with a private or public organization, and hourly earnings, particularly for women. Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions of the male female wage gap show the female penalty for past household work is due to longer hours of such work rather than a higher female penalty for a given amount of unpaid work.
Fisher, Stephen D.; Kenny, John; Poortinga, Wouter; Böhm, Gisela; Steg, Linda
The politicisation of climate change attitudes in Europe Journal Article
In: Electoral Studies, vol. 79, 2022, ISSN: 0261-3794.
@article{5765a1d2c5d74ab6836ae1195c92e07d,
title = {The politicisation of climate change attitudes in Europe},
author = {Stephen D. Fisher and John Kenny and Wouter Poortinga and Gisela Böhm and Linda Steg},
doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102499},
issn = {0261-3794},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-07-16},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
volume = {79},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Do voters for different parties have distinct climate attitudes because of their positions on other issues? With European Social Survey (ESS) data, we find that in Western (but not Central and Eastern) Europe there is a linkage between left-right self-placement and climate attitudes that cannot be accounted for by economic egalitarianism or liberal cultural attitudes. That linkage partly but not fully accounts for why voters for different party families have different beliefs and worries about climate change. Green party voters are more climate conscious than other voters with similar left-wing identities and political values. Not only Populist-Right but also mainstream Conservative party-family voters are less worried about climate change than their left-right orientations and other political values suggest. While Western European countries nearly all follow the same pattern, there is no consistent structure in Central and Eastern European countries. Across Europe non-voters are less worried about climate change than voters.},
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Do voters for different parties have distinct climate attitudes because of their positions on other issues? With European Social Survey (ESS) data, we find that in Western (but not Central and Eastern) Europe there is a linkage between left-right self-placement and climate attitudes that cannot be accounted for by economic egalitarianism or liberal cultural attitudes. That linkage partly but not fully accounts for why voters for different party families have different beliefs and worries about climate change. Green party voters are more climate conscious than other voters with similar left-wing identities and political values. Not only Populist-Right but also mainstream Conservative party-family voters are less worried about climate change than their left-right orientations and other political values suggest. While Western European countries nearly all follow the same pattern, there is no consistent structure in Central and Eastern European countries. Across Europe non-voters are less worried about climate change than voters.
Rao, Nitya; Patil, Sheetal; Singh, Chandni; Roy, Parama; Pryor, Charles; Poonacha, Prathigna; Genes, Mariam
Cultivating Sustainable and Healthy Cities: A Systematic Literature Review of the Outcomes of Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture Journal Article
In: Sustainable Cities and Society, vol. 85, 2022, ISSN: 2210-6707.
@article{4e74a0805ed64cf59d64e838c7addcff,
title = {Cultivating Sustainable and Healthy Cities: A Systematic Literature Review of the Outcomes of Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture},
author = {Nitya Rao and Sheetal Patil and Chandni Singh and Parama Roy and Charles Pryor and Prathigna Poonacha and Mariam Genes},
doi = {10.1016/j.scs.2022.104063},
issn = {2210-6707},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-07-14},
journal = {Sustainable Cities and Society},
volume = {85},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Despite considerable interest in urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) in recent decades, its contributions to urban sustainability and human wellbeing remain contested. This systematic literature review examines the geographical landscape of the peer-reviewed literature on UPA and assesses its reported outcomes on sustainability and wellbeing. Following systematic review protocols, we undertook a two-step literature screening and quality assessment process. From a total of 4,029 articles, based inclusion-exclusion criteria, we filtered 320 articles for quantitative and 86 for qualitative assessment. Quantitative analysis confirmed an exponential increase in literature on UPA since 2015 and a regional bias towards the Global North. The qualitative analysis identified six thematic outcomes of UPA under three sustainability pillars - environmental sustainability; material well-being; labour and livelihoods; land tenure and urban planning; and food and nutritional security as part of economic sustainability; and subjective and relational wellbeing as well as gender and social differentiation as elements of social sustainability. Environmental sustainability was most discussed, followed by subjective wellbeing and food and nutritional security. Gender and social differentiation issues were least represented in the papers. There remain knowledge gaps around how urban policy and planning can recognise, leverage, and scale up the sustainability and wellbeing co-benefits of UPA.},
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Despite considerable interest in urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) in recent decades, its contributions to urban sustainability and human wellbeing remain contested. This systematic literature review examines the geographical landscape of the peer-reviewed literature on UPA and assesses its reported outcomes on sustainability and wellbeing. Following systematic review protocols, we undertook a two-step literature screening and quality assessment process. From a total of 4,029 articles, based inclusion-exclusion criteria, we filtered 320 articles for quantitative and 86 for qualitative assessment. Quantitative analysis confirmed an exponential increase in literature on UPA since 2015 and a regional bias towards the Global North. The qualitative analysis identified six thematic outcomes of UPA under three sustainability pillars - environmental sustainability; material well-being; labour and livelihoods; land tenure and urban planning; and food and nutritional security as part of economic sustainability; and subjective and relational wellbeing as well as gender and social differentiation as elements of social sustainability. Environmental sustainability was most discussed, followed by subjective wellbeing and food and nutritional security. Gender and social differentiation issues were least represented in the papers. There remain knowledge gaps around how urban policy and planning can recognise, leverage, and scale up the sustainability and wellbeing co-benefits of UPA.
Kenny, John
The formation of British attitudes towards the Common Market: 1957–72 Journal Article
In: JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 2022.
@article{0215309e5c4d4e88bfd76f61b9ab741b,
title = {The formation of British attitudes towards the Common Market: 1957–72},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1111/jcms.13381},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-07-11},
journal = {JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies},
abstract = {This paper uses an extensive collection of historical surveys that have only recently been made available to researchers to examine the formation of British attitudes towards the then European Economic Community. It demonstrates that – up until 1967 – the demographic predictors of support for UK membership were unstable. Thereafter, coinciding with the second UK application, these attitudes started to stabilise and harden, with support becoming highest among men, the youngest age cohorts, the middle class and those with greater education. The renewed politicization of the issue in 1967 also coincided with Labour voters becoming significantly more likely to support membership. Following the change in the parties' positions, Labour voters subsequently become substantially less supportive than Conversative voters. The paper thus supports existing analyses on the role of elite cues, while providing new, robust evidence of the change in demographic associations over this formative period.},
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This paper uses an extensive collection of historical surveys that have only recently been made available to researchers to examine the formation of British attitudes towards the then European Economic Community. It demonstrates that – up until 1967 – the demographic predictors of support for UK membership were unstable. Thereafter, coinciding with the second UK application, these attitudes started to stabilise and harden, with support becoming highest among men, the youngest age cohorts, the middle class and those with greater education. The renewed politicization of the issue in 1967 also coincided with Labour voters becoming significantly more likely to support membership. Following the change in the parties' positions, Labour voters subsequently become substantially less supportive than Conversative voters. The paper thus supports existing analyses on the role of elite cues, while providing new, robust evidence of the change in demographic associations over this formative period.
Rahman, Md. Munsur; Haque, Anisul; Nicholls, Robert J.; Darby, Stephen E.; Urmi, Mahmida Tul; Dustegir, Md. Maruf; Dunn, Frances E.; Tahsin, Anika; Razzaque, Sadmina; Horsburgh, Kevin; Haque, Md. Aminul
Sustainability of the coastal zone of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta under climatic and anthropogenic stresses Journal Article
In: Science of the Total Environment, vol. 829, 2022, ISSN: 0048-9697, (Acknowledgements: Collecting the bathymetry data was supported by the ‘ESPA Deltas (NE/J002755/1)’ project supported by the ESPA programme, funded by the Department for International Development (DfID), the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK, and the National Water Resources Database hosted at Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO), Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh (GoB). The model development was supported by the DECCMA Project (Grant No. IDRC 107642), part of the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's DfID and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada, the WARPO Projects, ‘Research on the Morphological processes under Climate Changes, Sea Level Rise and Anthropogenic Intervention in the coastal zone’ and ‘Research on Sediment Distribution and Management in South-West Region of Bangladesh’ funded from MoWR, GoB and the ACCORD project (NE/R000123/1) funded by the UK NERC (through National Oceanographic Center, NOC).).
@article{5760653e432747c5a23a89cca0b75311,
title = {Sustainability of the coastal zone of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta under climatic and anthropogenic stresses},
author = {Md. Munsur Rahman and Anisul Haque and Robert J. Nicholls and Stephen E. Darby and Mahmida Tul Urmi and Md. Maruf Dustegir and Frances E. Dunn and Anika Tahsin and Sadmina Razzaque and Kevin Horsburgh and Md. Aminul Haque},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154547},
issn = {0048-9697},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-07-10},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
volume = {829},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta is one of the world's largest deltas. It is currently experiencing high rates of relative sea-level rise of about 5 mm/year, reflecting anthropogenic climate change and land subsidence. This is expected to accelerate further through the 21st Century, so there are concerns that the GBM delta will be progressively submerged. In this context, a core question is: can sedimentation on the delta surface maintain its elevation relative to sea level? This research seeks to answer this question by applying a two-dimensional flow and morphological model which is capable of handling dynamic interactions between the river and floodplain systems and simulating floodplain sedimentation under different flow-sediment regimes and anthropogenic interventions. We find that across a range of flood frequencies and adaptation scenarios (including the natural polder-free state), the retained volume of sediment varies between 22% and 50% of the corresponding sediment input. This translates to average rates of sedimentation on the delta surface of 5.5 mm/yr to 7.5 mm/yr. Hence, under present conditions, sedimentation associated with quasi-natural conditions can exceed current rates of relative sea-level rise and potentially create new land mass. These findings highlight that encouraging quasi-natural conditions through the widespread application of active sediment management measures has the potential to promote more sustainable outcomes for the GBM delta. Practical measures to promote include tidal river management, and appropriate combinations of cross-dams, bandal-like structures, and dredging.},
note = {Acknowledgements: Collecting the bathymetry data was supported by the ‘ESPA Deltas (NE/J002755/1)’ project supported by the ESPA programme, funded by the Department for International Development (DfID), the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK, and the National Water Resources Database hosted at Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO), Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh (GoB). The model development was supported by the DECCMA Project (Grant No. IDRC 107642), part of the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's DfID and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada, the WARPO Projects, ‘Research on the Morphological processes under Climate Changes, Sea Level Rise and Anthropogenic Intervention in the coastal zone’ and ‘Research on Sediment Distribution and Management in South-West Region of Bangladesh’ funded from MoWR, GoB and the ACCORD project (NE/R000123/1) funded by the UK NERC (through National Oceanographic Center, NOC).},
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pubstate = {published},
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The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta is one of the world's largest deltas. It is currently experiencing high rates of relative sea-level rise of about 5 mm/year, reflecting anthropogenic climate change and land subsidence. This is expected to accelerate further through the 21st Century, so there are concerns that the GBM delta will be progressively submerged. In this context, a core question is: can sedimentation on the delta surface maintain its elevation relative to sea level? This research seeks to answer this question by applying a two-dimensional flow and morphological model which is capable of handling dynamic interactions between the river and floodplain systems and simulating floodplain sedimentation under different flow-sediment regimes and anthropogenic interventions. We find that across a range of flood frequencies and adaptation scenarios (including the natural polder-free state), the retained volume of sediment varies between 22% and 50% of the corresponding sediment input. This translates to average rates of sedimentation on the delta surface of 5.5 mm/yr to 7.5 mm/yr. Hence, under present conditions, sedimentation associated with quasi-natural conditions can exceed current rates of relative sea-level rise and potentially create new land mass. These findings highlight that encouraging quasi-natural conditions through the widespread application of active sediment management measures has the potential to promote more sustainable outcomes for the GBM delta. Practical measures to promote include tidal river management, and appropriate combinations of cross-dams, bandal-like structures, and dredging.
Coppola, Alysha I.; Wagner, Sasha; Lennartz, Sinikka T.; Seidel, Michael; Ward, Nicholas D.; Dittmar, Thorsten; Santín, Cristina; Jones, Matthew W.
The black carbon cycle and its role in the Earth system Journal Article
In: Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 2022, ISSN: 2662-138X, (Funding Information: A.I.C. acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Ambizione grant ‘Fire in the Ocean’ (PZ00P2_185835) and thanks T. Eglinton, A. Varkalis and L. Tinkham. M.S. and T.D. acknowledge funding by the German Science Foundation (DFG) within the Cluster of Excellence EXC 2077 ‘The Ocean Floor — Earth’s Uncharted Interface’ (project number 390741603). N.D.W. acknowledges funding from the US Department of Energy (DOE)-funded COMPASS-FME project. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated by Battelle for the US DOE under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. Additional support was provided by the National Science Foundation OCE #2017577 (to S.W.). M.W.J. was funded by an independent research fellowship from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (grant NE/V01417X/1).).
@article{45460ce2c141489eadc147beaddb50a1,
title = {The black carbon cycle and its role in the Earth system},
author = {Alysha I. Coppola and Sasha Wagner and Sinikka T. Lennartz and Michael Seidel and Nicholas D. Ward and Thorsten Dittmar and Cristina Santín and Matthew W. Jones},
doi = {10.1038/s43017-022-00316-6},
issn = {2662-138X},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-07-07},
journal = {Nature Reviews Earth and Environment},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {Black carbon (BC) is produced by incomplete combustion of biomass by wildfires and burning of fossil fuels. BC is environmentally persistent over centuries to millennia, sequestering carbon in marine and terrestrial environments. However, its production, storage and dynamics, and therefore its role in the broader carbon cycling during global change, are poorly understood. In this Review, we discuss BC cycling across the land-to-ocean continuum. Wildfires are the main source of BC, producing 128 ± 84 teragrams per year. Negative climate–BC feedbacks could arise as wildfire increases with anthropogenic warming, producing more BC, which in turn will sequester carbon, but the magnitude of these effects are unknown. Most BC is stored in terrestrial systems with some transported to the ocean via rivers and the atmosphere. However, the oceanic BC budget is not balanced, with known BC removal fluxes exceeding BC inputs. We demonstrate these observed inconsistencies using a simple ocean box model, which highlights key areas of future research. Measurements of BC mineralization and export rates along the land-to-ocean continuum and quantification of previously unexplored sources of oceanic BC are needed to close the global BC budget.},
note = {Funding Information: A.I.C. acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Ambizione grant ‘Fire in the Ocean’ (PZ00P2_185835) and thanks T. Eglinton, A. Varkalis and L. Tinkham. M.S. and T.D. acknowledge funding by the German Science Foundation (DFG) within the Cluster of Excellence EXC 2077 ‘The Ocean Floor — Earth’s Uncharted Interface’ (project number 390741603). N.D.W. acknowledges funding from the US Department of Energy (DOE)-funded COMPASS-FME project. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated by Battelle for the US DOE under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. Additional support was provided by the National Science Foundation OCE #2017577 (to S.W.). M.W.J. was funded by an independent research fellowship from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (grant NE/V01417X/1).},
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Black carbon (BC) is produced by incomplete combustion of biomass by wildfires and burning of fossil fuels. BC is environmentally persistent over centuries to millennia, sequestering carbon in marine and terrestrial environments. However, its production, storage and dynamics, and therefore its role in the broader carbon cycling during global change, are poorly understood. In this Review, we discuss BC cycling across the land-to-ocean continuum. Wildfires are the main source of BC, producing 128 ± 84 teragrams per year. Negative climate–BC feedbacks could arise as wildfire increases with anthropogenic warming, producing more BC, which in turn will sequester carbon, but the magnitude of these effects are unknown. Most BC is stored in terrestrial systems with some transported to the ocean via rivers and the atmosphere. However, the oceanic BC budget is not balanced, with known BC removal fluxes exceeding BC inputs. We demonstrate these observed inconsistencies using a simple ocean box model, which highlights key areas of future research. Measurements of BC mineralization and export rates along the land-to-ocean continuum and quantification of previously unexplored sources of oceanic BC are needed to close the global BC budget.
Quine, Timothy A.; Cressey, Elizabeth L.; Dungait, Jennifer A. J.; Baets, Sarah; Meersmans, Jeroen; Jones, Matthew W.; Nicholas, Andrew P.
Geomorphically mediated carbon dynamics of floodplain soils and Implications for net effect of carbon erosion Journal Article
In: Hydrological Processes, 2022, ISSN: 0885-6087, (ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This work was funded by UK Natural Environment Research Council as part of the Impacts of Climate Change on Erosion, Sediment and Transport and Soil Carbon in the UK and Europe project (NE/E011713/1). Matthew W. Jones’ contribution was supported initially by NERC PhD studentship (NE/L002434/1) and thereafter by Horizon 2020 ‘CHE’ project (no. 776186). We thank Sophie M. Green for her helpful comments on an early manuscript, Daisy Atkins for her digitisation of the Culm catchment, Richard Jones and Neville England for their help collecting samples, and the technician team at Exeter University for their assistance with laboratory work. DATA AVAILABILITY: The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in “figshare” at http://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.17263883.v1).
@article{eced6cb52b5b4133816b6c80b3cccfc0,
title = {Geomorphically mediated carbon dynamics of floodplain soils and Implications for net effect of carbon erosion},
author = {Timothy A. Quine and Elizabeth L. Cressey and Jennifer A. J. Dungait and Sarah Baets and Jeroen Meersmans and Matthew W. Jones and Andrew P. Nicholas},
issn = {0885-6087},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-07-07},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {The fate of organic carbon deposited in floodplain sediments is an important control on the magnitude and direction of the carbon flux from anthropogenically accelerated erosion and channelization of the riverine network. Globally, rates of deposition and the mean residence time (MRT) of carbon within different geomorphic settings remains poorly constrained. We sampled the soil profile to 0.8 m depth from two geomorphic zones: active channel belt (ACB) and lowland floodplain, under long-term pasture adjacent to the river Culm in SW England, UK. We evaluated sedimentation rates and carbon storage using fallout radionuclide 137Cs, particle size and total carbon analyses. Variation in decomposition was assessed via empirical and numerical techniques, using soil aggregate size and density fractionation combined with natural abundance C analysis. Carbon decomposition was simulated using the RothC model and catchment implications were explored using a floodplain evolution model. Sedimentation and carbon accumulation rates were 5-6 times greater in the ACB than the floodplain. Carbon decomposition rates also varied with geomorphic setting. Soil carbon in floodplain cores had more rapid decomposition rates indicated by greater 13C-enrichment and subsoils dominated by mineral-associated soil organic carbon. The carbon in ACB cores was less processed and 13C-depleted by comparison, with more light fraction and macroaggregate-carbon throughout the cores. Decomposition rates in the ACB were estimated to be 4-fold less than the floodplain, as indicated by the RothC model. Including the ACB in floodplain carbon MRT calculations in the floodplain evolution model increased overall MRT by 10%. The major differences in the balance of sedimentation and decomposition rates between active and inactive floodplains suggest that the relative extent of these contrasting floodplain zones is critical to the overall carbon balance of floodplains. Restoration projects could enhance soil carbon storage by maximising active floodplain areas by increasing river channel complexity},
note = {ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This work was funded by UK Natural Environment Research Council as part of the Impacts of Climate Change on Erosion, Sediment and Transport and Soil Carbon in the UK and Europe project (NE/E011713/1). Matthew W. Jones’ contribution was supported initially by NERC PhD studentship (NE/L002434/1) and thereafter by Horizon 2020 ‘CHE’ project (no. 776186). We thank Sophie M. Green for her helpful comments on an early manuscript, Daisy Atkins for her digitisation of the Culm catchment, Richard Jones and Neville England for their help collecting samples, and the technician team at Exeter University for their assistance with laboratory work. DATA AVAILABILITY: The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in “figshare” at http://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.17263883.v1},
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The fate of organic carbon deposited in floodplain sediments is an important control on the magnitude and direction of the carbon flux from anthropogenically accelerated erosion and channelization of the riverine network. Globally, rates of deposition and the mean residence time (MRT) of carbon within different geomorphic settings remains poorly constrained. We sampled the soil profile to 0.8 m depth from two geomorphic zones: active channel belt (ACB) and lowland floodplain, under long-term pasture adjacent to the river Culm in SW England, UK. We evaluated sedimentation rates and carbon storage using fallout radionuclide 137Cs, particle size and total carbon analyses. Variation in decomposition was assessed via empirical and numerical techniques, using soil aggregate size and density fractionation combined with natural abundance C analysis. Carbon decomposition was simulated using the RothC model and catchment implications were explored using a floodplain evolution model. Sedimentation and carbon accumulation rates were 5-6 times greater in the ACB than the floodplain. Carbon decomposition rates also varied with geomorphic setting. Soil carbon in floodplain cores had more rapid decomposition rates indicated by greater 13C-enrichment and subsoils dominated by mineral-associated soil organic carbon. The carbon in ACB cores was less processed and 13C-depleted by comparison, with more light fraction and macroaggregate-carbon throughout the cores. Decomposition rates in the ACB were estimated to be 4-fold less than the floodplain, as indicated by the RothC model. Including the ACB in floodplain carbon MRT calculations in the floodplain evolution model increased overall MRT by 10%. The major differences in the balance of sedimentation and decomposition rates between active and inactive floodplains suggest that the relative extent of these contrasting floodplain zones is critical to the overall carbon balance of floodplains. Restoration projects could enhance soil carbon storage by maximising active floodplain areas by increasing river channel complexity
Forster, Johanna; Shelton, Clare; White, Carole S.; Dupeyron, Agathe; Mizinova, Alena
Prioritising wellbeing and resilience to Build Back Better: insights from a Dominican small-scale fishing community Journal Article
In: Disasters, vol. 46, no. S1, pp. S51–S77, 2022, ISSN: 0361-3666, (Supplement: ‘Building back better’? Lessons from disaster recovery in the Caribbean. Published in honour of Emeritus Professor David Barker Funding Information: The work was funded by a Global Challenges Research Fund (quality‐related) grant awarded by the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom (code: DEV31GFJF).).
@article{a3ac8f3e5e4c4204a71ed3c41f7d3126,
title = {Prioritising wellbeing and resilience to Build Back Better: insights from a Dominican small-scale fishing community},
author = {Johanna Forster and Clare Shelton and Carole S. White and Agathe Dupeyron and Alena Mizinova},
doi = {10.1111/disa.12541},
issn = {0361-3666},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-07-01},
journal = {Disasters},
volume = {46},
number = {S1},
pages = {S51--S77},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Climate change is increasing the severity of extreme weather events, particularly hurricanes, presenting a significant challenge to Caribbean coastal communities. In the aftermath of a major disaster, government interventions typically prioritise infrastructure, assets, and the economy through rebuilding roads, reviving economic sectors, and providing financial compensation. This is driven by a focus on macro-level quantitative indicators rather than by local, multidimensional subjective and relational factors, closer to lived experiences and livelihoods. Using frameworks outlining social well-being and agency, this paper explores strategies used by a fisheries-dependent community in Dominica to recover from Hurricane Maria in 2017 and pursue well-being. The findings highlight the importance of multidimensional well-being, particularly relational and subjective dimensions, including existing social networks, and personal relationships critical for recovery after Maria. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates how recovery initiatives that concentrate solely on material well-being, such as employment, can undermine agency in the capacity of a community to recover and build resilience.},
note = {Supplement: ‘Building back better’? Lessons from disaster recovery in the Caribbean. Published in honour of Emeritus Professor David Barker Funding Information: The work was funded by a Global Challenges Research Fund (quality‐related) grant awarded by the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom (code: DEV31GFJF).},
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Climate change is increasing the severity of extreme weather events, particularly hurricanes, presenting a significant challenge to Caribbean coastal communities. In the aftermath of a major disaster, government interventions typically prioritise infrastructure, assets, and the economy through rebuilding roads, reviving economic sectors, and providing financial compensation. This is driven by a focus on macro-level quantitative indicators rather than by local, multidimensional subjective and relational factors, closer to lived experiences and livelihoods. Using frameworks outlining social well-being and agency, this paper explores strategies used by a fisheries-dependent community in Dominica to recover from Hurricane Maria in 2017 and pursue well-being. The findings highlight the importance of multidimensional well-being, particularly relational and subjective dimensions, including existing social networks, and personal relationships critical for recovery after Maria. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates how recovery initiatives that concentrate solely on material well-being, such as employment, can undermine agency in the capacity of a community to recover and build resilience.
Barclay, Jenni; Robertson, Richie; Scarlett, Jazmin P.; Pyle, David M.; Armijos, Maria Teresa
In: Disasters, vol. 46, no. S1, pp. S10–S50, 2022, ISSN: 0361-3666, (Supplement: ‘Building back better’? Lessons from disaster recovery in the Caribbean. Published in honour of Emeritus Professor David Barker Acknowledgement: This paper has arisen partly from the conversations sparked through the AHRC Disasters Network, particularly the inspiration from Caroline Williams of the University of Bristol We wish to acknowledge the support from the Global Challenges Research Fund grant AH/S00579X/1 and NE/P0175719/1 and ‘Curating Crises’ (AH/W00898X/1). JB was also supported by a Royal Society APEX Award (APXR1180094), and JS supported by the University of Hull Department of Geography, Geology and Environment scholarship and the Dudley Stamp Memorial Fund of the Royal Geographical Society with IGB. DMP acknowledges support from the NERC Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET). Two anonymous reviewers are thanked for their helpful comments which led to an improvement in this paper. Data Availability Statement: The data that supports the findings of this study are available in the supplementary material of this article and this contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.).
@article{1ae0d08ad3db41149375c3a8add42c9c,
title = {Disaster Aid? Mapping historical responses to volcanic eruptions from 1800–2000 in the English-speaking Eastern Caribbean: their role in creating vulnerabilities},
author = {Jenni Barclay and Richie Robertson and Jazmin P. Scarlett and David M. Pyle and Maria Teresa Armijos},
doi = {10.1111/disa.12537},
issn = {0361-3666},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-07-01},
journal = {Disasters},
volume = {46},
number = {S1},
pages = {S10--S50},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {This paper uses volcanic eruptions on the Caribbean islands of Montserrat and Saint Vincent to explore the role that British colonial rule in the past and near past (1800–2000) has played in response to and recovery from hazardous events, and in turn, the influence that the nature of the hazards has on these responses. It shows that systemic vulnerabilities to natural hazards have been created by inadequate aid responses and longer-term chronic problems and demonstrates that hazard impacts are compounded by them. Vulnerabilities could be reduced by analysing integrated hazard impacts to generate mitigative measures across hazards and identify actions that more closely match timescales of political decision-making. Incorporating local knowledge and experience into risk analysis will enable the most effective use of aid resources, ahead of emergencies. Finally, coupling aid for long-term development with emergency response would improve outcomes and adaptation to longer-term vulnerabilities in immediate rebuilding and short-term recovery.},
note = {Supplement: ‘Building back better’? Lessons from disaster recovery in the Caribbean. Published in honour of Emeritus Professor David Barker Acknowledgement: This paper has arisen partly from the conversations sparked through the AHRC Disasters Network, particularly the inspiration from Caroline Williams of the University of Bristol We wish to acknowledge the support from the Global Challenges Research Fund grant AH/S00579X/1 and NE/P0175719/1 and ‘Curating Crises’ (AH/W00898X/1). JB was also supported by a Royal Society APEX Award (APXR1180094), and JS supported by the University of Hull Department of Geography, Geology and Environment scholarship and the Dudley Stamp Memorial Fund of the Royal Geographical Society with IGB. DMP acknowledges support from the NERC Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET). Two anonymous reviewers are thanked for their helpful comments which led to an improvement in this paper. Data Availability Statement: The data that supports the findings of this study are available in the supplementary material of this article and this contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This paper uses volcanic eruptions on the Caribbean islands of Montserrat and Saint Vincent to explore the role that British colonial rule in the past and near past (1800–2000) has played in response to and recovery from hazardous events, and in turn, the influence that the nature of the hazards has on these responses. It shows that systemic vulnerabilities to natural hazards have been created by inadequate aid responses and longer-term chronic problems and demonstrates that hazard impacts are compounded by them. Vulnerabilities could be reduced by analysing integrated hazard impacts to generate mitigative measures across hazards and identify actions that more closely match timescales of political decision-making. Incorporating local knowledge and experience into risk analysis will enable the most effective use of aid resources, ahead of emergencies. Finally, coupling aid for long-term development with emergency response would improve outcomes and adaptation to longer-term vulnerabilities in immediate rebuilding and short-term recovery.
Wong, Chi Ming; Rugg, Bradley; Geere, Jo-Anne
In: Musculoskeletal Care, 2022, ISSN: 1478-2189.
@article{d92f34267ae74cdb9091b205da9c14d7,
title = {The effects of Pilates exercise in comparison to other forms of exercise on pain and disability in individuals with chronic non-specific low back pain: A systematic review with meta-analysis},
author = {Chi Ming Wong and Bradley Rugg and Jo-Anne Geere},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/msc.1667},
issn = {1478-2189},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-07-01},
journal = {Musculoskeletal Care},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Objective: To compare the effects of Pilates exercise (PE) with other forms of exercise on pain and disability in individuals with chronic non-specific low back pain (CNSLBP) and to inform clinical practice and future research.Study design: Systematic review with meta-analysis conducted and reported in line the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-analysis.Literature search: Six electronic databases were searched from inception to April 2021.Study selection criteria: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the effect of PE with other forms of exercise for adults with CNSLBP on pain and disability.Data synthesis: Two reviewers assessed the risk of bias of the trials, guided by the Cochrane RoB2 tool. Available data were extracted for meta-analysis with subgroup analysis. Pilates exercise was compared to general exercise (GE), direction-specific exercise (DSE) and spinal stabilisation exercise (SSE). Certainty of evidence was interpreted following the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.Results: Eleven RCTs were included. A low certainty of evidence supported PE was more effective than GE in pain reduction [Effect size (ES) 0.44]. Moreover, very low levels of certainty were revealed for effectiveness of PE compared with DSE for pain reduction (ES 0.65) and equivalence of PE and SSE for pain and disability.Conclusions: This review found no strong evidence for using one type of exercise intervention over another when managing patients with CNSLBP. Existing evidence does not allow this review to draw definitive recommendations. In the absence of a superior exercise form clinicians should work collaboratively with the patient, using the individual's goals and preferences to guide exercise selection. Further appropriately designed research is warranted to explore this topic further.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Objective: To compare the effects of Pilates exercise (PE) with other forms of exercise on pain and disability in individuals with chronic non-specific low back pain (CNSLBP) and to inform clinical practice and future research.Study design: Systematic review with meta-analysis conducted and reported in line the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-analysis.Literature search: Six electronic databases were searched from inception to April 2021.Study selection criteria: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the effect of PE with other forms of exercise for adults with CNSLBP on pain and disability.Data synthesis: Two reviewers assessed the risk of bias of the trials, guided by the Cochrane RoB2 tool. Available data were extracted for meta-analysis with subgroup analysis. Pilates exercise was compared to general exercise (GE), direction-specific exercise (DSE) and spinal stabilisation exercise (SSE). Certainty of evidence was interpreted following the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.Results: Eleven RCTs were included. A low certainty of evidence supported PE was more effective than GE in pain reduction [Effect size (ES) 0.44]. Moreover, very low levels of certainty were revealed for effectiveness of PE compared with DSE for pain reduction (ES 0.65) and equivalence of PE and SSE for pain and disability.Conclusions: This review found no strong evidence for using one type of exercise intervention over another when managing patients with CNSLBP. Existing evidence does not allow this review to draw definitive recommendations. In the absence of a superior exercise form clinicians should work collaboratively with the patient, using the individual's goals and preferences to guide exercise selection. Further appropriately designed research is warranted to explore this topic further.
Liu, Zhu; Deng, Zhu; Zhu, Biqing; Ciais, Philippe; Davis, Steven J.; Tan, Jianguang; Andrew, Robbie M.; Boucher, Olivier; Arous, Simon Ben; Canadell, Josep G.; Dou, Xinyu; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gentine, Pierre; Guo, Rui; Hong, Chaopeng; Jackson, Robert B.; Kammen, Daniel M.; Ke, Piyu; Quere, Corinne Le; Monica, Crippa; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Peters, Glen P.; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Wang, Yilong; Zheng, Bo; Zhong, Haiwang; Sun, Taochun; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
Global patterns of daily CO2 emissions reductions in the first year of COVID-19 Journal Article
In: Nature Geoscience, 2022, ISSN: 1752-0894.
@article{4a1bf4dba0214013b58e6328c956228a,
title = {Global patterns of daily CO2 emissions reductions in the first year of COVID-19},
author = {Zhu Liu and Zhu Deng and Biqing Zhu and Philippe Ciais and Steven J. Davis and Jianguang Tan and Robbie M. Andrew and Olivier Boucher and Simon Ben Arous and Josep G. Canadell and Xinyu Dou and Pierre Friedlingstein and Pierre Gentine and Rui Guo and Chaopeng Hong and Robert B. Jackson and Daniel M. Kammen and Piyu Ke and Corinne Le Quere and Crippa Monica and Greet Janssens-Maenhout and Glen P. Peters and Katsumasa Tanaka and Yilong Wang and Bo Zheng and Haiwang Zhong and Taochun Sun and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-022-00965-8},
issn = {1752-0894},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-30},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {Observed daily changes in CO2 emissions from across the globe reveal the sectors and countries where pandemic-related emissions declines were most pronounced in 2020.Day-to-day changes in CO2 emissions from human activities, in particular fossil-fuel combustion and cement production, reflect a complex balance of influences from seasonality, working days, weather and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we provide a daily CO2 emissions dataset for the whole year of 2020, calculated from inventory and near-real-time activity data. We find a global reduction of 6.3% (2,232 MtCO(2)) in CO2 emissions compared with 2019. The drop in daily emissions during the first part of the year resulted from reduced global economic activity due to the pandemic lockdowns, including a large decrease in emissions from the transportation sector. However, daily CO2 emissions gradually recovered towards 2019 levels from late April with the partial reopening of economic activity. Subsequent waves of lockdowns in late 2020 continued to cause smaller CO2 reductions, primarily in western countries. The extraordinary fall in emissions during 2020 is similar in magnitude to the sustained annual emissions reductions necessary to limit global warming at 1.5 degrees C. This underscores the magnitude and speed at which the energy transition needs to advance.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Observed daily changes in CO2 emissions from across the globe reveal the sectors and countries where pandemic-related emissions declines were most pronounced in 2020.Day-to-day changes in CO2 emissions from human activities, in particular fossil-fuel combustion and cement production, reflect a complex balance of influences from seasonality, working days, weather and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we provide a daily CO2 emissions dataset for the whole year of 2020, calculated from inventory and near-real-time activity data. We find a global reduction of 6.3% (2,232 MtCO(2)) in CO2 emissions compared with 2019. The drop in daily emissions during the first part of the year resulted from reduced global economic activity due to the pandemic lockdowns, including a large decrease in emissions from the transportation sector. However, daily CO2 emissions gradually recovered towards 2019 levels from late April with the partial reopening of economic activity. Subsequent waves of lockdowns in late 2020 continued to cause smaller CO2 reductions, primarily in western countries. The extraordinary fall in emissions during 2020 is similar in magnitude to the sustained annual emissions reductions necessary to limit global warming at 1.5 degrees C. This underscores the magnitude and speed at which the energy transition needs to advance.
Jones, Matthew W.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Veraverbeke, Sander; Andela, Niels; Lasslop, Gitta; Forkel, Matthias; Smith, Adam J. P.; Burton, Chantelle; Betts, Richard A.; Werf, Guido R.; Sitch, Stephen; Canadell, Josep G.; Santín, Cristina; Kolden, Crystal; Doerr, Stefan H.; Quere, Corinne Le
Global and regional trends and drivers of fire under climate change Journal Article
In: Reviews of Geophysics, vol. 60, no. 3, 2022, ISSN: 8755-1209.
@article{188034f38a53449294592feaf6839ac2,
title = {Global and regional trends and drivers of fire under climate change},
author = {Matthew W. Jones and John T. Abatzoglou and Sander Veraverbeke and Niels Andela and Gitta Lasslop and Matthias Forkel and Adam J. P. Smith and Chantelle Burton and Richard A. Betts and Guido R. Werf and Stephen Sitch and Josep G. Canadell and Cristina Santín and Crystal Kolden and Stefan H. Doerr and Corinne Le Quere},
doi = {10.1029/2020RG000726},
issn = {8755-1209},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-30},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
volume = {60},
number = {3},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
abstract = {Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, and perpetuating climate change. Here, we review current understanding of the impacts of climate change on fire weather (weather conditions conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfires) and the consequences for regional fire activity as mediated by a range of other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity and lightning) and human factors (including ignition, suppression, and land use). Through supplemental analyses, we present a stocktake of regional trends in fire weather and burned area (BA) during recent decades, and we examine how fire activity relates to its bioclimatic and human drivers. Fire weather controls the annual timing of fires in most world regions and also drives inter-annual variability in BA in the Mediterranean, the Pacific US and high latitude forests. Increases in the frequency and extremity of fire weather have been globally pervasive due to climate change during 1979–2019, meaning that landscapes are primed to burn more frequently. Correspondingly, increases in BA of ∼50% or higher have been seen in some extratropical forest ecoregions including in the Pacific US and high-latitude forests during 2001–2019, though interannual variability remains large in these regions. Nonetheless, other bioclimatic and human factors can override the relationship between BA and fire weather. For example, BA in savannahs relates more strongly to patterns of fuel production or to the fragmentation of naturally fire-prone landscapes by agriculture. Similarly, BA trends in tropical forests relate more strongly to deforestation rates and forest degradation than to changing fire weather. Overall, BA has reduced by 27% globally in the past two decades, due in large part to a decline in BA in African savannahs. According to climate models, the prevalence and extremity of fire weather has already emerged beyond its pre-industrial variability in the Mediterranean due to climate change, and emergence will become increasingly widespread at additional levels of warming. Moreover, several of the major wildfires experienced in recent years, including the Australian bushfires of 2019/2020, have occurred amidst fire weather conditions that were considerably more likely due to climate change. Current fire models incompletely reproduce the observed spatial patterns of BA based on their existing representations of the relationships between fire and its bioclimatic and human controls, and historical trends in BA also vary considerably across models. Advances in the observation of fire and understanding of its controlling factors are supporting the addition or optimization of a range of processes in models. Overall, climate change is exerting a pervasive upwards pressure on fire globally by increasing the frequency and intensity of fire weather, and this upwards pressure will escalate with each increment of global warming. Improvements to fire models and a better understanding of the interactions between climate, climate extremes, humans and fire are required to predict future fire activity and to mitigate against its consequences.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, and perpetuating climate change. Here, we review current understanding of the impacts of climate change on fire weather (weather conditions conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfires) and the consequences for regional fire activity as mediated by a range of other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity and lightning) and human factors (including ignition, suppression, and land use). Through supplemental analyses, we present a stocktake of regional trends in fire weather and burned area (BA) during recent decades, and we examine how fire activity relates to its bioclimatic and human drivers. Fire weather controls the annual timing of fires in most world regions and also drives inter-annual variability in BA in the Mediterranean, the Pacific US and high latitude forests. Increases in the frequency and extremity of fire weather have been globally pervasive due to climate change during 1979–2019, meaning that landscapes are primed to burn more frequently. Correspondingly, increases in BA of ∼50% or higher have been seen in some extratropical forest ecoregions including in the Pacific US and high-latitude forests during 2001–2019, though interannual variability remains large in these regions. Nonetheless, other bioclimatic and human factors can override the relationship between BA and fire weather. For example, BA in savannahs relates more strongly to patterns of fuel production or to the fragmentation of naturally fire-prone landscapes by agriculture. Similarly, BA trends in tropical forests relate more strongly to deforestation rates and forest degradation than to changing fire weather. Overall, BA has reduced by 27% globally in the past two decades, due in large part to a decline in BA in African savannahs. According to climate models, the prevalence and extremity of fire weather has already emerged beyond its pre-industrial variability in the Mediterranean due to climate change, and emergence will become increasingly widespread at additional levels of warming. Moreover, several of the major wildfires experienced in recent years, including the Australian bushfires of 2019/2020, have occurred amidst fire weather conditions that were considerably more likely due to climate change. Current fire models incompletely reproduce the observed spatial patterns of BA based on their existing representations of the relationships between fire and its bioclimatic and human controls, and historical trends in BA also vary considerably across models. Advances in the observation of fire and understanding of its controlling factors are supporting the addition or optimization of a range of processes in models. Overall, climate change is exerting a pervasive upwards pressure on fire globally by increasing the frequency and intensity of fire weather, and this upwards pressure will escalate with each increment of global warming. Improvements to fire models and a better understanding of the interactions between climate, climate extremes, humans and fire are required to predict future fire activity and to mitigate against its consequences.
Warren, Rachel; Andrews, Oliver; Brown, Sally; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Forstenhäusler, Nicole; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; Goodwin, Philip; Harris, Ian; He, Yi; Hope, Chris; Manful, Desmond; Osborn, Timothy J.; Price, Jeff; Vuuren, Detlef; Wright, Rebecca Mary
Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2°C above pre-industrial levels Journal Article
In: Climatic Change, vol. 172, no. 3-4, 2022, ISSN: 0165-0009, (Funding: This research leading to these results received funding from the UK Government, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, as part of the Implications of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C project. OA, YH, JP and RW were also funded by joint UK NERC and UK Government Department of BEIS grant NE/P01495X/1.).
@article{e65f2b44bd1e45c2a1c3fb666dca6848,
title = {Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2°C above pre-industrial levels},
author = {Rachel Warren and Oliver Andrews and Sally Brown and Felipe J. Colón-González and Nicole Forstenhäusler and David E. H. J. Gernaat and Philip Goodwin and Ian Harris and Yi He and Chris Hope and Desmond Manful and Timothy J. Osborn and Jeff Price and Detlef Vuuren and Rebecca Mary Wright},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9},
issn = {0165-0009},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-29},
journal = {Climatic Change},
volume = {172},
number = {3-4},
publisher = {Springer},
abstract = {The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne disease, coastal and fluvial flooding and projected impacts on agriculture and the economy, allowing for uncertainties in regional climate projection. Risk-related metrics associated with 2 °C warming, depending on sector, are reduced by 10–44% globally if warming is further reduced to 1.5 °C. Comparing with a baseline in which warming of 3.66 °C occurs by 2100, constraining warming to 1.5 °C reduces these risk indicators globally by 32–85%, and constraining warming to 2 °C reduces them by 26–74%. In percentage terms, avoided risk is highest for fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress, but in absolute terms risk reduction is greatest for drought. Although water stress decreases in some regions, it is often accompanied by additional exposure to flooding. The magnitude of the percentage of damage avoided is similar to that calculated for avoided global economic risk associated with these same climate change scenarios. We also identify West Africa, India and North America as hotspots of climate change risk in the future.},
note = {Funding: This research leading to these results received funding from the UK Government, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, as part of the Implications of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C project. OA, YH, JP and RW were also funded by joint UK NERC and UK Government Department of BEIS grant NE/P01495X/1.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne disease, coastal and fluvial flooding and projected impacts on agriculture and the economy, allowing for uncertainties in regional climate projection. Risk-related metrics associated with 2 °C warming, depending on sector, are reduced by 10–44% globally if warming is further reduced to 1.5 °C. Comparing with a baseline in which warming of 3.66 °C occurs by 2100, constraining warming to 1.5 °C reduces these risk indicators globally by 32–85%, and constraining warming to 2 °C reduces them by 26–74%. In percentage terms, avoided risk is highest for fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress, but in absolute terms risk reduction is greatest for drought. Although water stress decreases in some regions, it is often accompanied by additional exposure to flooding. The magnitude of the percentage of damage avoided is similar to that calculated for avoided global economic risk associated with these same climate change scenarios. We also identify West Africa, India and North America as hotspots of climate change risk in the future.
Osborne, Matthew; Lambe, Fiona; Ran, Ylva; Dehmel, Naira; Tabacco, Giovanni Alberto; Balungira, Joshua; Perez-Viana, Borja; Widmark, Erik; Holmlid, Stefan; Verschoor, Arjan
Designing development interventions: The application of service design and discrete choice experiments in complex settings Journal Article
In: World Development, vol. 158, 2022, ISSN: 0305-750X.
@article{ce2205cac16c4f29a1e2003d02fb7150,
title = {Designing development interventions: The application of service design and discrete choice experiments in complex settings},
author = {Matthew Osborne and Fiona Lambe and Ylva Ran and Naira Dehmel and Giovanni Alberto Tabacco and Joshua Balungira and Borja Perez-Viana and Erik Widmark and Stefan Holmlid and Arjan Verschoor},
doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105998},
issn = {0305-750X},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-25},
journal = {World Development},
volume = {158},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The persistence of problems such as endemic poverty, rising inequalities, climate change and biodiversity loss demands us to find solutions which are embedded in a highly complex web of interacting social, technological, and ecological processes. Service design (SD), an approach to directly involve citizens in the development and improvement of services and systems, shows promise as a tool to support the design of interventions to address complex development challenges in the Global South. In this paper we describe how service design was used alongside discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to inform the design of a Weather Index Insurance product for small holder farmers in Uganda. As part of the service design process, we used archetypes to capture and articulate the multiple vulnerabilities of farmers and quickly test prototype insurance packages to identify important design features. DCEs tested promising design features in a manner that complemented as well as triangulated the service design phase. The results of both phases were used to inform the design of a WII product that has been taken up by major insurance providers in Uganda. The approach complements and builds on qualitative work typically done to inform DCEs by opening up space for research participants to question core assumptions, and by involving respondents directly in the process of designing a future service.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The persistence of problems such as endemic poverty, rising inequalities, climate change and biodiversity loss demands us to find solutions which are embedded in a highly complex web of interacting social, technological, and ecological processes. Service design (SD), an approach to directly involve citizens in the development and improvement of services and systems, shows promise as a tool to support the design of interventions to address complex development challenges in the Global South. In this paper we describe how service design was used alongside discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to inform the design of a Weather Index Insurance product for small holder farmers in Uganda. As part of the service design process, we used archetypes to capture and articulate the multiple vulnerabilities of farmers and quickly test prototype insurance packages to identify important design features. DCEs tested promising design features in a manner that complemented as well as triangulated the service design phase. The results of both phases were used to inform the design of a WII product that has been taken up by major insurance providers in Uganda. The approach complements and builds on qualitative work typically done to inform DCEs by opening up space for research participants to question core assumptions, and by involving respondents directly in the process of designing a future service.
Fuldauer, Lena I.; Thacker, Scott; Haggis, Robyn A.; Fuso-Nerini, Francesco; Nicholls, Robert J.; Hall, Jim W.
Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals Journal Article
In: Nature Communications, vol. 13, 2022, ISSN: 2041-1723, (Funding Information: We appreciate the contributions of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council by grants (L.I.F.), EP/N509711/1 (L.I.F.), and EP/N017064/1 (J.W.H). Acknowledgements: We thank Prof. Nathalie Seddon and colleagues at the University of Oxford and beyond for providing useful suggestions that improved this paper. We acknowledge the image courtesy of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment. The content of this publication has not been approved by the United Nations and does not reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or the Member States.).
@article{7de42a5ecca54f55858dd735fa757945,
title = {Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals},
author = {Lena I. Fuldauer and Scott Thacker and Robyn A. Haggis and Francesco Fuso-Nerini and Robert J. Nicholls and Jim W. Hall},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-31202-w},
issn = {2041-1723},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-23},
journal = {Nature Communications},
volume = {13},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {The international community has committed to achieve 169 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets by 2030 and to enhance climate adaptation under the Paris Agreement. Despite the potential for synergies, aligning SDG and climate adaptation efforts is inhibited by an inadequate understanding of the complex relationship between SDG targets and adaptation to impacts of climate change. Here we propose a framework to conceptualise how ecosystems and socio-economic sectors mediate this relationship, which provides a more nuanced understanding of the impacts of climate change on all 169 SDG targets. Global application of the framework reveals that adaptation of wetlands, rivers, cropland, construction, water, electricity, and housing in the most vulnerable countries is required to safeguard achievement of 68% of SDG targets from near-term climate risk by 2030. We discuss how our framework can help align National Adaptation Plans with SDG targets, thus ensuring that adaptation advances, rather than detracts from, sustainable development.},
note = {Funding Information: We appreciate the contributions of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council by grants (L.I.F.), EP/N509711/1 (L.I.F.), and EP/N017064/1 (J.W.H). Acknowledgements: We thank Prof. Nathalie Seddon and colleagues at the University of Oxford and beyond for providing useful suggestions that improved this paper. We acknowledge the image courtesy of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment. The content of this publication has not been approved by the United Nations and does not reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or the Member States.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The international community has committed to achieve 169 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets by 2030 and to enhance climate adaptation under the Paris Agreement. Despite the potential for synergies, aligning SDG and climate adaptation efforts is inhibited by an inadequate understanding of the complex relationship between SDG targets and adaptation to impacts of climate change. Here we propose a framework to conceptualise how ecosystems and socio-economic sectors mediate this relationship, which provides a more nuanced understanding of the impacts of climate change on all 169 SDG targets. Global application of the framework reveals that adaptation of wetlands, rivers, cropland, construction, water, electricity, and housing in the most vulnerable countries is required to safeguard achievement of 68% of SDG targets from near-term climate risk by 2030. We discuss how our framework can help align National Adaptation Plans with SDG targets, thus ensuring that adaptation advances, rather than detracts from, sustainable development.
Beck, Silke; Forsyth, Tim; Mahony, Martin
Urgent need to move toward solution-orientated environmental assessments Journal Article
In: One Earth, vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 586–588, 2022, ISSN: 2590-3322.
@article{def3d3f9d7a2465aa43cf78687cd74e3,
title = {Urgent need to move toward solution-orientated environmental assessments},
author = {Silke Beck and Tim Forsyth and Martin Mahony},
doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2022.05.021},
issn = {2590-3322},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-17},
journal = {One Earth},
volume = {5},
number = {6},
pages = {586--588},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The trend of moving away from global environmental assessments and toward solution-oriented assessments raises new challenges because of the need to engage directly with politics, values, and deliberation. Here, we argue that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) have still not developed sufficient capacity to engage with these novel challenges and that the IPBES assessment of transformative change is an opportunity to put this right.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
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The trend of moving away from global environmental assessments and toward solution-oriented assessments raises new challenges because of the need to engage directly with politics, values, and deliberation. Here, we argue that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) have still not developed sufficient capacity to engage with these novel challenges and that the IPBES assessment of transformative change is an opportunity to put this right.
no, Alex Guizar Couti; Jones, Julia P. G.; Balmford, Andrew; Carmenta, Rachel; Coomes, David A.
A global evaluation of the effectiveness of voluntary REDD+ projects at reducing deforestation and degradation in the moist tropics Journal Article
In: Conservation Biology, 2022, ISSN: 0888-8892, (This is online, but I am not sure if it is OA or not - hence chosing 'unknown' on the public access question).
@article{5d219d3804b64d529e4210c12980d5db,
title = {A global evaluation of the effectiveness of voluntary REDD+ projects at reducing deforestation and degradation in the moist tropics},
author = {Alex Guizar Couti no and Julia P. G. Jones and Andrew Balmford and Rachel Carmenta and David A. Coomes},
doi = {10.1111/cobi.13970},
issn = {0888-8892},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-17},
journal = {Conservation Biology},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) projects aim to contribute to climate change mitigation by protecting and enhancing carbon stocks in tropical forests, but there are no systematic global evaluations of their impact. Using a new data set for tropical humid forests, we used a standardised evaluation approach to quantify the performance of a representative sample of 40 voluntary REDD+ certified under the Verified Carbon Standard, located in nine countries. In the first five years of implementation, deforestation within project areas was reduced by 47% (95% CI = 24–68%) compared with matched counterfactual pixels, while degradation rates were 58% lower (95% CI = 49–63%). Reductions were small in absolute terms but greater in sites located in high deforestation settings, and did not appear to be substantially undermined by leakage activities in forested areas within 10-km of project boundaries. At COP26 the international community renewed its commitment to tackling tropical deforestation as a nature-based solution to climate change. Our results indicate that incentivising forest conservation through voluntary site-based projects can slow tropical deforestation; they also highlight the particular importance of targeting financing to areas at greater risk of deforestation.},
note = {This is online, but I am not sure if it is OA or not - hence chosing 'unknown' on the public access question},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) projects aim to contribute to climate change mitigation by protecting and enhancing carbon stocks in tropical forests, but there are no systematic global evaluations of their impact. Using a new data set for tropical humid forests, we used a standardised evaluation approach to quantify the performance of a representative sample of 40 voluntary REDD+ certified under the Verified Carbon Standard, located in nine countries. In the first five years of implementation, deforestation within project areas was reduced by 47% (95% CI = 24–68%) compared with matched counterfactual pixels, while degradation rates were 58% lower (95% CI = 49–63%). Reductions were small in absolute terms but greater in sites located in high deforestation settings, and did not appear to be substantially undermined by leakage activities in forested areas within 10-km of project boundaries. At COP26 the international community renewed its commitment to tackling tropical deforestation as a nature-based solution to climate change. Our results indicate that incentivising forest conservation through voluntary site-based projects can slow tropical deforestation; they also highlight the particular importance of targeting financing to areas at greater risk of deforestation.
Alahamade, Wedad; Lake, Iain; Reeves, Claire E.; Iglesia, Beatriz De La
A multi-variate time series clustering approach based on intermediate fusion: A case study in air pollution data imputation Journal Article
In: Neurocomputing, vol. 490, pp. 229–245, 2022, ISSN: 0925-2312.
@article{efc25503c42944f4b05c7064556ea0c7,
title = {A multi-variate time series clustering approach based on intermediate fusion: A case study in air pollution data imputation},
author = {Wedad Alahamade and Iain Lake and Claire E. Reeves and Beatriz De La Iglesia},
doi = {10.1016/j.neucom.2021.09.079},
issn = {0925-2312},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-14},
journal = {Neurocomputing},
volume = {490},
pages = {229--245},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Multivariate Time Series Clustering (MVTS) is an essential task, especially for large and complex dataset, but it has received limited attention in the literature. We are motivated by a real-world problem: the need to cluster air pollution data to produce plausible imputations for missing measurements for some pollutants. Our main focus will be on the UK air quality assessments, the study uses data collected from automatic monitoring stations during four-year period (2015–2018).In this work, we propose a MVTS clustering method followed by an imputation methods for the whole Time Series (TS). We compare two approaches to cluster the stations: univariate TS clustering using Shape-Based Distance (SBD) for individual pollutants, and MVTS clustering using the fused similarity that combines the SBD for all the pollutants. We run a k-means algorithm to produce clusters with each approach on the same dataset.Our analysis shows that using MVTS clustering produces the best clusters as measured by various quality indexes and by the imputations they help to reduce the error average between imputed and real values based on the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and its standard deviation (Std).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Multivariate Time Series Clustering (MVTS) is an essential task, especially for large and complex dataset, but it has received limited attention in the literature. We are motivated by a real-world problem: the need to cluster air pollution data to produce plausible imputations for missing measurements for some pollutants. Our main focus will be on the UK air quality assessments, the study uses data collected from automatic monitoring stations during four-year period (2015–2018).In this work, we propose a MVTS clustering method followed by an imputation methods for the whole Time Series (TS). We compare two approaches to cluster the stations: univariate TS clustering using Shape-Based Distance (SBD) for individual pollutants, and MVTS clustering using the fused similarity that combines the SBD for all the pollutants. We run a k-means algorithm to produce clusters with each approach on the same dataset.Our analysis shows that using MVTS clustering produces the best clusters as measured by various quality indexes and by the imputations they help to reduce the error average between imputed and real values based on the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and its standard deviation (Std).
Peake, Lewis R.; Dawson, Lorna A.; Price, J. Paul Newell; Aller, M. Fernanda; Bhogal, Anne; Doody, Donnacha G.; Gregory, Andrew S.; McKinley, Jennifer M.
Priorities for UK soils Journal Article
In: Geoderma Regional, vol. 29, 2022, ISSN: 2352-0094.
@article{4d1088ce534844ab89c7de0e5782efc9,
title = {Priorities for UK soils},
author = {Lewis R. Peake and Lorna A. Dawson and J. Paul Newell Price and M. Fernanda Aller and Anne Bhogal and Donnacha G. Doody and Andrew S. Gregory and Jennifer M. McKinley},
doi = {10.1016/j.geodrs.2022.e00512},
issn = {2352-0094},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-01},
journal = {Geoderma Regional},
volume = {29},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The predominance of agriculture in the UK is a major factor determining the main soil threats and priorities. The main soil degradation processes are compaction, erosion and soil organic matter loss, while soil contamination and sealing is also a significant issue. Agricultural land take threatens soil ecosystem services but receives little attention. An urgent need to tackle climate change has resulted in a new direction for land use and soil policy.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The predominance of agriculture in the UK is a major factor determining the main soil threats and priorities. The main soil degradation processes are compaction, erosion and soil organic matter loss, while soil contamination and sealing is also a significant issue. Agricultural land take threatens soil ecosystem services but receives little attention. An urgent need to tackle climate change has resulted in a new direction for land use and soil policy.
Blakelock, Elizabeth; Turnpenny, John
In: Policy & Politics, 2022, ISSN: 0305-5736.
@article{a1d65f51e05a4c55989e12e560235fd1,
title = {The impact of participatory policy formulation on regulatory legitimacy: the case of Great Britain’s Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem)},
author = {Elizabeth Blakelock and John Turnpenny},
doi = {10.1332/030557321X16510710879298},
issn = {0305-5736},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-06-01},
journal = {Policy & Politics},
publisher = {Policy Press},
abstract = {Energy markets policy in Great Britain has been largely delegated from elected representatives to a market regulator: the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem). Regulatory legitimacy requires due process and appropriate expertise to expose the regulator to democratic influence. As the legitimacy of regulatory participation processes start to be discussed more intensively in the European context, this timely article examines the relationship between the use of policy formulation tools and the resulting legitimacy gained by an independent market regulator. It employs a detailed case study analysing how participatory policy formulation tools - deliberative focus groups with members of the public, and stakeholder consultations - were used in energy markets policy formulation in Ofgem between 2007 and 2016. Through assessing the actors, venues, capacities and effects associated with selection and use of the tools, it finds there were inequalities of influence between different policy actors which posed a significant challenge to legitimacy.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Energy markets policy in Great Britain has been largely delegated from elected representatives to a market regulator: the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem). Regulatory legitimacy requires due process and appropriate expertise to expose the regulator to democratic influence. As the legitimacy of regulatory participation processes start to be discussed more intensively in the European context, this timely article examines the relationship between the use of policy formulation tools and the resulting legitimacy gained by an independent market regulator. It employs a detailed case study analysing how participatory policy formulation tools - deliberative focus groups with members of the public, and stakeholder consultations - were used in energy markets policy formulation in Ofgem between 2007 and 2016. Through assessing the actors, venues, capacities and effects associated with selection and use of the tools, it finds there were inequalities of influence between different policy actors which posed a significant challenge to legitimacy.
Kenny, John
The changing prioritization of environmental protection in Britain: 1982-2019 Journal Article
In: Government and Opposition, 2022, ISSN: 0017-257X, (Acknowledgements: The author would like to thank Ben Clements, Peter Enns, Will Jennings, Joan Madia, Andra Roescu, Riley Taiji, Giacomo Vagni and the three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on previous drafts that greatly improved the article. An earlier version of the article was presented at the 2020 Environmental Social Sciences workshop at the University of Bern, and the author is grateful for feedback received at this. This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (grant number ESRC ES/S000380/1).).
@article{ba737ebd216441d783d99311def4ac13,
title = {The changing prioritization of environmental protection in Britain: 1982-2019},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1017/gov.2022.17},
issn = {0017-257X},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-05-30},
journal = {Government and Opposition},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {This paper examines the evolution of long-term trends in the prioritisation of environmental protection in Britain over a period of four decades. It does so by compiling comparable questions tapping into the same underlying environmental dimension from a range of sources, including historical polling data that has only recently been made available to the research community. At the aggregate-level, prioritisation largely tracks changing economic conditions as well key environmental events, with the winter of 2019 showing the highest recorded levels. Furthermore, trends in individuals’ willingness to prioritise the environment may not always go in tandem with trends in environmental salience. At the individual-level, educational attainment is the only consistently significant demographic correlate over time. However, there is evidence of increasing politicisation of the environment, with left-right orientations only becoming an important correlate of environmental prioritisation in recent years in line with rising divergence on the issue at the elite level.},
note = {Acknowledgements: The author would like to thank Ben Clements, Peter Enns, Will Jennings, Joan Madia, Andra Roescu, Riley Taiji, Giacomo Vagni and the three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on previous drafts that greatly improved the article. An earlier version of the article was presented at the 2020 Environmental Social Sciences workshop at the University of Bern, and the author is grateful for feedback received at this. This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (grant number ESRC ES/S000380/1).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This paper examines the evolution of long-term trends in the prioritisation of environmental protection in Britain over a period of four decades. It does so by compiling comparable questions tapping into the same underlying environmental dimension from a range of sources, including historical polling data that has only recently been made available to the research community. At the aggregate-level, prioritisation largely tracks changing economic conditions as well key environmental events, with the winter of 2019 showing the highest recorded levels. Furthermore, trends in individuals’ willingness to prioritise the environment may not always go in tandem with trends in environmental salience. At the individual-level, educational attainment is the only consistently significant demographic correlate over time. However, there is evidence of increasing politicisation of the environment, with left-right orientations only becoming an important correlate of environmental prioritisation in recent years in line with rising divergence on the issue at the elite level.
Turner, Rachel A.; Forster, Johanna; Fitzsimmons, Clare; Mahon, Robin
Expanding narratives of governance constraints to improve coral reef conservation Journal Article
In: Conservation Biology, 2022, ISSN: 0888-8892, (Funding Information: This research was funded by the European Union 7th Framework program (FP7/2007‐2013) under grant agreement 244161.).
@article{fe4e7e2932ea458f935be4a979050499,
title = {Expanding narratives of governance constraints to improve coral reef conservation},
author = {Rachel A. Turner and Johanna Forster and Clare Fitzsimmons and Robin Mahon},
doi = {10.1111/cobi.13933},
issn = {0888-8892},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-05-16},
journal = {Conservation Biology},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {To understand and address the failures of reef governance, it is critical to understand the perceptions of diverse policy makers and practitioners about the challenges they face in achieving their goals. Examining the discourse of policy makers and practitioners can reveal the extent to which these perceptions capture the full spectrum of potential governance challenges, including those related to management, institutional structures and processes, the values and principles underpinning governance, and the social and environmental context. We conducted semistructured interviews with 110 policy makers and practitioners across multiple sectors, scales, and contexts in Barbados, St Kitts and Nevis, Belize, and Honduras. We used thematic qualitative analysis informed by theories of interactive governance and governability to examine the challenges perceived by governance actors. Perceived governance challenges were broadly consistent across countries, but differed by sector (V = 0.819, F},
note = {Funding Information: This research was funded by the European Union 7th Framework program (FP7/2007‐2013) under grant agreement 244161.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
To understand and address the failures of reef governance, it is critical to understand the perceptions of diverse policy makers and practitioners about the challenges they face in achieving their goals. Examining the discourse of policy makers and practitioners can reveal the extent to which these perceptions capture the full spectrum of potential governance challenges, including those related to management, institutional structures and processes, the values and principles underpinning governance, and the social and environmental context. We conducted semistructured interviews with 110 policy makers and practitioners across multiple sectors, scales, and contexts in Barbados, St Kitts and Nevis, Belize, and Honduras. We used thematic qualitative analysis informed by theories of interactive governance and governability to examine the challenges perceived by governance actors. Perceived governance challenges were broadly consistent across countries, but differed by sector (V = 0.819, F
Geese, Lucas; Martínez-Cantó, Javier
Working as a team: Do legislators coordinate their geographic representation efforts in party-centred environments? Journal Article
In: Party Politics, 2022, ISSN: 1354-0688.
@article{2ec20126283542a594b05bb5212b7d89,
title = {Working as a team: Do legislators coordinate their geographic representation efforts in party-centred environments?},
author = {Lucas Geese and Javier Martínez-Cantó},
doi = {10.1177/13540688221098157},
issn = {1354-0688},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-05-13},
journal = {Party Politics},
publisher = {Sage Publications},
abstract = {Why do legislators engage in geographic representation in party-centred electoral systems, where they face weak re-election incentives to cultivate a personal vote? Existing research offers cross-pressuring incentive structures and intrinsic localism motivations as individual-level factors to explain this puzzle. In this article, we propose an alternative argument based on the principle of collective action within party-internal structures of labour division. We argue that legislators elected in the same multi-member district and under the same party label (party delegations) share collective vote-seeking incentives to collaborate with each other in order to strike a balance between the collective benefits and individual costs of constituency-oriented activities. Results from a comparative study of written parliamentary questions in Germany and Spain support our argument. Specifically, the study suggests that individual localism attributes interact with the team composition of party delegations to shape constituency-orientated behaviour.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Why do legislators engage in geographic representation in party-centred electoral systems, where they face weak re-election incentives to cultivate a personal vote? Existing research offers cross-pressuring incentive structures and intrinsic localism motivations as individual-level factors to explain this puzzle. In this article, we propose an alternative argument based on the principle of collective action within party-internal structures of labour division. We argue that legislators elected in the same multi-member district and under the same party label (party delegations) share collective vote-seeking incentives to collaborate with each other in order to strike a balance between the collective benefits and individual costs of constituency-oriented activities. Results from a comparative study of written parliamentary questions in Germany and Spain support our argument. Specifically, the study suggests that individual localism attributes interact with the team composition of party delegations to shape constituency-orientated behaviour.
Wilder, Thomas; Zhai, Xiaoming; Munday, David R.; Joshi, Manoj
The response of a baroclinic anticyclonic eddy to relative wind stress forcing Journal Article
In: Journal of Physical Oceanography, 2022, ISSN: 0022-3670.
@article{6860f994446340798ff78543a21ee77d,
title = {The response of a baroclinic anticyclonic eddy to relative wind stress forcing},
author = {Thomas Wilder and Xiaoming Zhai and David R. Munday and Manoj Joshi},
doi = {10.1175/JPO-D-22-0044.1},
issn = {0022-3670},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-05-12},
journal = {Journal of Physical Oceanography},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
abstract = {Including the ocean surface current in the calculation of wind stress is known to damp mesoscale eddies through a negative wind power input, and have potential ramifications for eddy longevity. Here, we study the spin-down of a baroclinic anticyclonic eddy subject to absolute (no ocean surface current) and relative (including ocean surface current) wind stress forcing by employing an idealised high-resolution numerical model. Results from this study demonstrate that relative wind stress dissipates surface mean kinetic energy (MKE) and also generates additional vertical motions throughout the whole water column via Ekman pumping. Wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping generates additional baroclinic conversion (mean potential to mean kinetic energy) that is found to offset the damping of surface MKE by increasing deep MKE. A scaling analysis of relative wind stress-induced baroclinic conversion and relative wind stress damping confirms these numerical findings, showing that additional energy conversion counteracts relative wind stress damping. What is more, wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping is found to modify surface potential vorticity gradients that lead to an earlier destabilisation of the eddy. Therefore, the onset of eddy instabilities and eventual eddy decay takes place on a shorter timescale in the simulation with relative wind stress.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Including the ocean surface current in the calculation of wind stress is known to damp mesoscale eddies through a negative wind power input, and have potential ramifications for eddy longevity. Here, we study the spin-down of a baroclinic anticyclonic eddy subject to absolute (no ocean surface current) and relative (including ocean surface current) wind stress forcing by employing an idealised high-resolution numerical model. Results from this study demonstrate that relative wind stress dissipates surface mean kinetic energy (MKE) and also generates additional vertical motions throughout the whole water column via Ekman pumping. Wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping generates additional baroclinic conversion (mean potential to mean kinetic energy) that is found to offset the damping of surface MKE by increasing deep MKE. A scaling analysis of relative wind stress-induced baroclinic conversion and relative wind stress damping confirms these numerical findings, showing that additional energy conversion counteracts relative wind stress damping. What is more, wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping is found to modify surface potential vorticity gradients that lead to an earlier destabilisation of the eddy. Therefore, the onset of eddy instabilities and eventual eddy decay takes place on a shorter timescale in the simulation with relative wind stress.
Groen, Lisanne; Alexander, Meghan; King, Julie; Jager, Nicolas; Huitema, Dave
Re-examining policy stability in climate adaptation through a lock-in perspective Journal Article
In: Journal of European Public Policy, 2022, ISSN: 1350-1763, (Funding: This work was supported, under the Open Research Area (ORA) programme, by the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek [grant 464.18.101]; the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [grant 396892926]; and the Economic and Social Research Council [grant ES/S015264/1].).
@article{541d61d411b74533b8efca0e626af287,
title = {Re-examining policy stability in climate adaptation through a lock-in perspective},
author = {Lisanne Groen and Meghan Alexander and Julie King and Nicolas Jager and Dave Huitema},
doi = {10.1080/13501763.2022.2064535},
issn = {1350-1763},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-05-11},
journal = {Journal of European Public Policy},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Responding to current and future climate change demands urgent, transformative adaptation, yet in many policy systems inaction continues to prevail. This paper examines apparent resistance to policy change and the persistence of business-as-usual through a ‘lock-in perspective’, which means that attention is paid to how reinforcing mechanisms drive stabilisation and resistance in policy systems. Offering a fresh synthesis of known lock-in mechanisms in the literature, this paper explores the role of those mechanisms in two empirical cases of coastal adaptation: England (U.K.) and Schleswig-Holstein (Germany). While several known lock-mechanisms are observable, some are newly identified in this adaptation context. We offer a critical reflection on the added value of the lock-in perspective for understanding policy stability. In turn, the identification of self- and mutually-reinforcing mechanisms provides a much-needed foundation for targeted policy interventions and efforts to ‘unlock’ climate adaptation pathways.},
note = {Funding: This work was supported, under the Open Research Area (ORA) programme, by the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek [grant 464.18.101]; the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [grant 396892926]; and the Economic and Social Research Council [grant ES/S015264/1].},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Responding to current and future climate change demands urgent, transformative adaptation, yet in many policy systems inaction continues to prevail. This paper examines apparent resistance to policy change and the persistence of business-as-usual through a ‘lock-in perspective’, which means that attention is paid to how reinforcing mechanisms drive stabilisation and resistance in policy systems. Offering a fresh synthesis of known lock-in mechanisms in the literature, this paper explores the role of those mechanisms in two empirical cases of coastal adaptation: England (U.K.) and Schleswig-Holstein (Germany). While several known lock-mechanisms are observable, some are newly identified in this adaptation context. We offer a critical reflection on the added value of the lock-in perspective for understanding policy stability. In turn, the identification of self- and mutually-reinforcing mechanisms provides a much-needed foundation for targeted policy interventions and efforts to ‘unlock’ climate adaptation pathways.
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