Tyndall Centre Journal Articles
2026
Fernandes, A. R.; Lake, Iain; Diletti, G.; Ceci, R.; Scortichini, G.
Relative Disposition of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in Paired Liver and Muscle Tissues from Different Species of Farm Animals and Different Contamination Scenarios Journal Article
In: Environmental Research, 2026, ISSN: 0013-9351.
@article{2f75249346f84a75a9631493f333cb68,
title = {Relative Disposition of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in Paired Liver and Muscle Tissues from Different Species of Farm Animals and Different Contamination Scenarios},
author = {A. R. Fernandes and Iain Lake and G. Diletti and R. Ceci and G. Scortichini},
issn = {0013-9351},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-23},
journal = {Environmental Research},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are preferentially retained in animal liver and adipose. Distribution between these tissues is of particular interest in species raised for food but is difficult to ascertain because of limited study numbers, most of which use tissues sourced from different animals. This report overcame such limitations by using paired liver/muscle from the same animals. It combined data from seven independent studies on four species and variable (low, moderate, high) levels of pasture/housing contamination. In >150 animals sampled in the UK and Italy, PCDD/F and PCB toxic equivalence (TEQ) occurred to a significantly (P<0.001) higher level in livers of sheep and pigs (>15:1, liver:muscle), reducing to 4:1 for cattle, but chicken tissues showed similar distribution. Occurrence levels were consistent with pasture contamination. Congener patterns in muscle and liver were similar for chickens and pigs but were notable different for PCDD/Fs in sheep. Remarkably, PCDD/Fs consistently dominated the TEQ in UK cattle and sheep (average, 69% - liver and 52% - muscle), rising to 69% (chickens) and 81-95% (pigs). Conversely, PCBs dominated TEQ (average, 65-95% and 80-98% in liver and muscle respectively) in Italian cattle and sheep. This divergence may arise from differences in feed, husbandry and geography but elevated PCB contamination has been reported in some Southern Italian locations. The higher liver contamination corresponds to the ability of these contaminants to induce and bind to the hepatic CYP1A2 enzyme, restricting CYP-mediated metabolism with resulting liver retention or sequestration.},
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Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are preferentially retained in animal liver and adipose. Distribution between these tissues is of particular interest in species raised for food but is difficult to ascertain because of limited study numbers, most of which use tissues sourced from different animals. This report overcame such limitations by using paired liver/muscle from the same animals. It combined data from seven independent studies on four species and variable (low, moderate, high) levels of pasture/housing contamination. In >150 animals sampled in the UK and Italy, PCDD/F and PCB toxic equivalence (TEQ) occurred to a significantly (P<0.001) higher level in livers of sheep and pigs (>15:1, liver:muscle), reducing to 4:1 for cattle, but chicken tissues showed similar distribution. Occurrence levels were consistent with pasture contamination. Congener patterns in muscle and liver were similar for chickens and pigs but were notable different for PCDD/Fs in sheep. Remarkably, PCDD/Fs consistently dominated the TEQ in UK cattle and sheep (average, 69% - liver and 52% - muscle), rising to 69% (chickens) and 81-95% (pigs). Conversely, PCBs dominated TEQ (average, 65-95% and 80-98% in liver and muscle respectively) in Italian cattle and sheep. This divergence may arise from differences in feed, husbandry and geography but elevated PCB contamination has been reported in some Southern Italian locations. The higher liver contamination corresponds to the ability of these contaminants to induce and bind to the hepatic CYP1A2 enzyme, restricting CYP-mediated metabolism with resulting liver retention or sequestration.
Falleiro, Rodrigo Moraes; Rodovalho, Fernando Viana; Zacharias, Gabriel Constantino; Oliveira, Guilherme Camargo; Schmidt, Isabel Belloni; Steil, Lara; Carmenta, Rachel
Wildfire protection in indigenous lands of Brazil: the role of fire brigades programs Journal Article
In: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, vol. 13, no. 1, 2026, ISSN: 2662-9992, (Data availability: The data on active fires used in the survey is public and available at https://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/queimadas/bdqueimadas/.).
@article{915117dd1ef34eb58dba21d1a4c1ee9f,
title = {Wildfire protection in indigenous lands of Brazil: the role of fire brigades programs},
author = {Rodrigo Moraes Falleiro and Fernando Viana Rodovalho and Gabriel Constantino Zacharias and Guilherme Camargo Oliveira and Isabel Belloni Schmidt and Lara Steil and Rachel Carmenta},
doi = {10.1057/s41599-025-06390-7},
issn = {2662-9992},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-20},
journal = {Humanities and Social Sciences Communications},
volume = {13},
number = {1},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
abstract = {Brazil’s indigenous lands (ILs) are important for global environmental sustainability. Despite this, ILs are increasingly threatened by wildfires, largely driven by climate change. The main public policy implemented by the Brazilian government to protect ILs has been the Federal Brigades Program (BRIFs), created in 2013 within the Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama). Coordinated by the National Center for Prevention and Suppression of Wildfires (Prevfogo), with the support of the National Indigenous Peoples Foundation (Funai), the BRIFs are the result of a long learning process, which led to the integrated fire management (IFM). Since then, protection strategies have begun to value social participation, traditional knowledge, and landscape management with prescribed burning. After a decade of operation, now is an opportune moment to evaluate the results of the BRIFs and the paradigm shift it represented. This study evaluated 42 ILs encompassing 25,355,413.6 hectares. Active fire satellite data, captured from outside the prescribed burning season, allowed estimation of wildfire occurrences. Using a before–after-control-intervention approach, ILs covered and not covered by BRIFs were compared before (2003–2012) and after (2014–2023) the program’s implementation. These treatments were evaluated both collectively and separately by ecosystems: fire-prone savannas (Cerrado biome) and fire-sensitive forests (Amazon biome). The data was analyzed using the Chi-Square Adherence test, graphs, and trend lines. Results show that ILs covered by BRIFs presented a significant reduction of 22.7% in the number of active fires following program implementation, whilst those not covered showed an increase of 12.3%. In the Cerrado biome, the reduction in the ILs covered by BRIFs was evident soon after program implementation. In the Amazon biome, this reduction took longer, but the differences are highlighted by the trend curves. These results were achieved with an annual investment of USD 1.02 per hectare protected. We conclude that BRIFs have been effective in protecting Brazil’s ILs from wildfires. Due to its efficiency, combined with low financial cost and equitable gains, the BRIFs Program offers a model for the protection of regions with ecological and social similarities, such as many tropical countries.},
note = {Data availability: The data on active fires used in the survey is public and available at https://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/queimadas/bdqueimadas/.},
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pubstate = {published},
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Brazil’s indigenous lands (ILs) are important for global environmental sustainability. Despite this, ILs are increasingly threatened by wildfires, largely driven by climate change. The main public policy implemented by the Brazilian government to protect ILs has been the Federal Brigades Program (BRIFs), created in 2013 within the Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama). Coordinated by the National Center for Prevention and Suppression of Wildfires (Prevfogo), with the support of the National Indigenous Peoples Foundation (Funai), the BRIFs are the result of a long learning process, which led to the integrated fire management (IFM). Since then, protection strategies have begun to value social participation, traditional knowledge, and landscape management with prescribed burning. After a decade of operation, now is an opportune moment to evaluate the results of the BRIFs and the paradigm shift it represented. This study evaluated 42 ILs encompassing 25,355,413.6 hectares. Active fire satellite data, captured from outside the prescribed burning season, allowed estimation of wildfire occurrences. Using a before–after-control-intervention approach, ILs covered and not covered by BRIFs were compared before (2003–2012) and after (2014–2023) the program’s implementation. These treatments were evaluated both collectively and separately by ecosystems: fire-prone savannas (Cerrado biome) and fire-sensitive forests (Amazon biome). The data was analyzed using the Chi-Square Adherence test, graphs, and trend lines. Results show that ILs covered by BRIFs presented a significant reduction of 22.7% in the number of active fires following program implementation, whilst those not covered showed an increase of 12.3%. In the Cerrado biome, the reduction in the ILs covered by BRIFs was evident soon after program implementation. In the Amazon biome, this reduction took longer, but the differences are highlighted by the trend curves. These results were achieved with an annual investment of USD 1.02 per hectare protected. We conclude that BRIFs have been effective in protecting Brazil’s ILs from wildfires. Due to its efficiency, combined with low financial cost and equitable gains, the BRIFs Program offers a model for the protection of regions with ecological and social similarities, such as many tropical countries.
Carmenta, Rachel; Anderson, Liana; Armijos, M. Teresa; Lugo, Victoria; Marsh, Hazel; Young, Maria Eugenia Ulfe
Global Framings of Pandemic Recovery: Insights Across Conservation, Development and Health Fields Journal Article
In: The Journal of Environment & Development, 2026, ISSN: 1552-5465.
@article{e813f714a0864f6e88c09fb23e231075,
title = {Global Framings of Pandemic Recovery: Insights Across Conservation, Development and Health Fields},
author = {Rachel Carmenta and Liana Anderson and M. Teresa Armijos and Victoria Lugo and Hazel Marsh and Maria Eugenia Ulfe Young},
doi = {10.1177/10704965251407170},
issn = {1552-5465},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-16},
journal = {The Journal of Environment & Development},
abstract = {In many contexts recovery from COVID-19 is ongoing. The impacts of the pandemic were diverse and their distribution uneven, which may in part explain the diversity in the ways in which its recovery has been framed. Numerous framings concerning what constitutes ‘recovery’, what its pursuit should entail, who (or what) it should target and whose vision the notion of recovery should represent have been expressed by various fields of study. An assessment of the way in which diverse fields (e.g. health, conservation and development) have represented the priorities of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is so far not available. This knowledge gap is important since understanding the threads in common, and those distinct between fields, may help move towards a more integrated appraisal of the multiple priorities salient to recovery. Integration however also involves representing diverse knowledges, values and lived experiences and supporting disaster-resilient communities requires being attentive to the voices of the most marginalized. Due recognition of and engagement with these groups is essential for enhancing the justice and equity of recovery-focused interventions, and can help ensure that interventions do not presume, misplace or misrepresent local priorities. With growing recognition of the need for decolonial, grounded and co-developed responses to processes of recovery, nature futures and global development there is a need to understand how COVID-19 recovery has been conceived and articulated across fields, and crucially, the extent to which it has included the perceptions of socially, economically and politically marginalized groups. We analyzed 30 papers (10 per field), and asked (1) How does COVID-19 recovery tend to be framed within these fields, including the representation of intersecting risks? (2) Where is there divergence and congruence in recovery discourses across these fields, and what would an integrated understanding of recovery look like? (3) To what extent are local voices reflected or acknowledged in these international framings? We found that while perspectives differed, all highlighted how COVID-19 exposed pre-existing interconnected crises. Many framed the root cause as flawed economic growth models, which was considered in need of various degrees of transformation combined with more integrated governance. Crucially, few framings had strong representation of local, or marginalized voices and relatively few papers actively grounded their calls, or prominently advocated for such practices. Our findings point to a need for more co-created knowledge generation and agenda setting for COVID-19 recovery, and disaster recovery more broadly.},
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In many contexts recovery from COVID-19 is ongoing. The impacts of the pandemic were diverse and their distribution uneven, which may in part explain the diversity in the ways in which its recovery has been framed. Numerous framings concerning what constitutes ‘recovery’, what its pursuit should entail, who (or what) it should target and whose vision the notion of recovery should represent have been expressed by various fields of study. An assessment of the way in which diverse fields (e.g. health, conservation and development) have represented the priorities of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is so far not available. This knowledge gap is important since understanding the threads in common, and those distinct between fields, may help move towards a more integrated appraisal of the multiple priorities salient to recovery. Integration however also involves representing diverse knowledges, values and lived experiences and supporting disaster-resilient communities requires being attentive to the voices of the most marginalized. Due recognition of and engagement with these groups is essential for enhancing the justice and equity of recovery-focused interventions, and can help ensure that interventions do not presume, misplace or misrepresent local priorities. With growing recognition of the need for decolonial, grounded and co-developed responses to processes of recovery, nature futures and global development there is a need to understand how COVID-19 recovery has been conceived and articulated across fields, and crucially, the extent to which it has included the perceptions of socially, economically and politically marginalized groups. We analyzed 30 papers (10 per field), and asked (1) How does COVID-19 recovery tend to be framed within these fields, including the representation of intersecting risks? (2) Where is there divergence and congruence in recovery discourses across these fields, and what would an integrated understanding of recovery look like? (3) To what extent are local voices reflected or acknowledged in these international framings? We found that while perspectives differed, all highlighted how COVID-19 exposed pre-existing interconnected crises. Many framed the root cause as flawed economic growth models, which was considered in need of various degrees of transformation combined with more integrated governance. Crucially, few framings had strong representation of local, or marginalized voices and relatively few papers actively grounded their calls, or prominently advocated for such practices. Our findings point to a need for more co-created knowledge generation and agenda setting for COVID-19 recovery, and disaster recovery more broadly.
Dawson, Neil; Martin, Adrian; Rodriguez, Iokiñe
Why restoring nature can work so much more effectively when led by local people Journal Article
In: The Conversation, 2026.
@article{8bda53901cc44858ac03866e5ce14739,
title = {Why restoring nature can work so much more effectively when led by local people},
author = {Neil Dawson and Adrian Martin and Iokiñe Rodriguez},
doi = {10.64628/AB.76fjwewkm},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-15},
journal = {The Conversation},
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Ohenhen, L. O.; Shirzaei, M.; Davis, J. L.; Tiwari, A.; Nicholls, Robert; Dasho, O.; Sadhasivam, N.; Seeger, K.; Werth, S.; Chadwick, A. J.; Onyike, F.; Lucy, J.; Atkins, C.; Daramola, S.; Ankamah, A.; Minderhoud, P. S. J.; Olsemann, J.; Yemele, G. C.
The Global Threat of Sinking Deltas Journal Article
In: Nature, 2026, ISSN: 0028-0836.
@article{c9e37067928f4b079d2c51d9ccd5b1ea,
title = {The Global Threat of Sinking Deltas},
author = {L. O. Ohenhen and M. Shirzaei and J. L. Davis and A. Tiwari and Robert Nicholls and O. Dasho and N. Sadhasivam and K. Seeger and S. Werth and A. J. Chadwick and F. Onyike and J. Lucy and C. Atkins and S. Daramola and A. Ankamah and P. S. J. Minderhoud and J. Olsemann and G. C. Yemele},
issn = {0028-0836},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-14},
journal = {Nature},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {River deltas are essential socio-ecological systems, sustaining dense human 30 populations, major economic centers, and vital ecosystems worldwide. Rising sea levels 31 and subsiding land threaten the sustainability of these valuable landscapes with relative sea-level rise and associated flood, land-loss, and salinization hazards. Despite these risks, vulnerability assessments are impeded by the lack of contemporary, high-resolution delta-wide subsidence observations. Here, we present spatially variable surface elevation changes across 40 global deltas using interferometric synthetic aperture radar. Using this dataset, we quantify delta surface elevation loss and reveal the prevalence and severity of subsidence in river deltas worldwide. Our analysis of three key anthropogenic drivers of delta elevation changes shows that groundwater storage have the strongest relative influence on VLM in 10 of the 40 deltas. In the other 2deltas, the contributions vary with mixed influences from multiple drivers or are dominated by sediment flux or urban expansion. Furthermore, we find that contemporary subsidence surpasses absolute (geocentric) sea-level rise as the dominant driver of relative sea-level rise for most deltas over the 21st century. These findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions addressing subsidence as an immediate and localized challenge, in parallel with broader efforts to mitigate/adapt to climate change-driven global sea-level rise.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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River deltas are essential socio-ecological systems, sustaining dense human 30 populations, major economic centers, and vital ecosystems worldwide. Rising sea levels 31 and subsiding land threaten the sustainability of these valuable landscapes with relative sea-level rise and associated flood, land-loss, and salinization hazards. Despite these risks, vulnerability assessments are impeded by the lack of contemporary, high-resolution delta-wide subsidence observations. Here, we present spatially variable surface elevation changes across 40 global deltas using interferometric synthetic aperture radar. Using this dataset, we quantify delta surface elevation loss and reveal the prevalence and severity of subsidence in river deltas worldwide. Our analysis of three key anthropogenic drivers of delta elevation changes shows that groundwater storage have the strongest relative influence on VLM in 10 of the 40 deltas. In the other 2deltas, the contributions vary with mixed influences from multiple drivers or are dominated by sediment flux or urban expansion. Furthermore, we find that contemporary subsidence surpasses absolute (geocentric) sea-level rise as the dominant driver of relative sea-level rise for most deltas over the 21st century. These findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions addressing subsidence as an immediate and localized challenge, in parallel with broader efforts to mitigate/adapt to climate change-driven global sea-level rise.
Smith, Roland; Nicholls, Robert; Tebboth, Mark; Kent, Avidan
Persistent vulnerability and precarious futures: the limits of adaptation in ‘climate migrant’ informal settlements of coastal Bangladesh Journal Article
In: Climate and Development, 2026, ISSN: 1756-5529.
@article{0285da2b9752410eb2946293666c94a4,
title = {Persistent vulnerability and precarious futures: the limits of adaptation in ‘climate migrant’ informal settlements of coastal Bangladesh},
author = {Roland Smith and Robert Nicholls and Mark Tebboth and Avidan Kent},
doi = {10.1080/17565529.2026.2619446},
issn = {1756-5529},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-14},
journal = {Climate and Development},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
abstract = {Populations exposed and vulnerable to climatic shocks and environmental degradation are increasingly likely to employ migration as an adaptive strategy in response to escalating severity and frequency of hazards associated with climate change. This study responds to the critical need to assess the role of migration in adaptation, particularly how post-migration conditions shape vulnerability, well-being and opportunities for existing households and their subsequent generations. Drawing on qualitative, participatory research in so-called ‘climate migrant’ slums in southwest Bangladesh, the study examines how migration reconfigures household risk by changing levels of exposure whilst reshaping and potentially reproducing conditions of vulnerability. While moving away from high-risk rural areas may reduce exposure, informal urban settlements remain exposed and are marked by socio-economic precarity and political exclusion, reinforcing vulnerability. Many such households are rendered immobile, both in terms of future migration and socio-economic mobility. Therefore, the success of migration as an adaptation strategy will depend not only on reducing exposure to hazards but also on addressing broader social, economic and political factors that shape vulnerability, enabling households to withstand future hazards and support long-term development.},
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Populations exposed and vulnerable to climatic shocks and environmental degradation are increasingly likely to employ migration as an adaptive strategy in response to escalating severity and frequency of hazards associated with climate change. This study responds to the critical need to assess the role of migration in adaptation, particularly how post-migration conditions shape vulnerability, well-being and opportunities for existing households and their subsequent generations. Drawing on qualitative, participatory research in so-called ‘climate migrant’ slums in southwest Bangladesh, the study examines how migration reconfigures household risk by changing levels of exposure whilst reshaping and potentially reproducing conditions of vulnerability. While moving away from high-risk rural areas may reduce exposure, informal urban settlements remain exposed and are marked by socio-economic precarity and political exclusion, reinforcing vulnerability. Many such households are rendered immobile, both in terms of future migration and socio-economic mobility. Therefore, the success of migration as an adaptation strategy will depend not only on reducing exposure to hazards but also on addressing broader social, economic and political factors that shape vulnerability, enabling households to withstand future hazards and support long-term development.
Brainard, Julii; Sedekia, Yovitha; Jones, Natalia R.; Matte, Michael; Sunday, Patrick; Watson-Jones, Deborah; Mapemba, Daniel Dennis; Kabakama, Severin A; Mulogo, Edgar Mugema; Ntaro, Moses; Tran, Hanh Thi; Hunter, Paul; Geere, Jo-Anne
Extreme weather impacts on health services and communities in lower income countries : A thematic systematic review Journal Article
In: Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2026, ISSN: 0035-9203, (Data availability: The data matrices are are available as Supplementary file S1 at https://osf.io/c95xq/files.).
@article{dc5d08f8c7144b28bbb7e8a82f7c8897,
title = {Extreme weather impacts on health services and communities in lower income countries : A thematic systematic review},
author = {Julii Brainard and Yovitha Sedekia and Natalia R. Jones and Michael Matte and Patrick Sunday and Deborah Watson-Jones and Daniel Dennis Mapemba and Severin A Kabakama and Edgar Mugema Mulogo and Moses Ntaro and Hanh Thi Tran and Paul Hunter and Jo-Anne Geere},
issn = {0035-9203},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-12},
journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {BackgroundMost previous research about the dangers of extreme weather events was applicable to populations in high income countries. Data summarising harms related to extreme weather events in lower income settings are lacking.MethodsA systematic review thematically summarised evidence about weather-event-linked harms and responses in low- and lower-middle income countries. Peer review and grey literature were systematically searched and selected. Data were extracted about harms, responses and outcomes relevant to six WHO Building Blocks of health care systems. Framework analysis was used to identify predominant themes related to harms, responses and the WHO Building Blocks.ResultsIncluded reports numbered 183. Flooding and high winds were the most common type of extreme weather event documented. The main community experience themes identified were displacement of populations and disruption. The main themes identified for health service delivery were: Vulnerability, Disruption and Resilience. Documented examples of resilience or recovery were far fewer for all six WHO healthcare system Building Blocks than descriptions of vulnerability and disruption.ConclusionsExtreme weather events can be highly disruptive and harmful to health care systems and communities in LMIC settings that are often already highly vulnerable.},
note = {Data availability: The data matrices are are available as Supplementary file S1 at https://osf.io/c95xq/files.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
BackgroundMost previous research about the dangers of extreme weather events was applicable to populations in high income countries. Data summarising harms related to extreme weather events in lower income settings are lacking.MethodsA systematic review thematically summarised evidence about weather-event-linked harms and responses in low- and lower-middle income countries. Peer review and grey literature were systematically searched and selected. Data were extracted about harms, responses and outcomes relevant to six WHO Building Blocks of health care systems. Framework analysis was used to identify predominant themes related to harms, responses and the WHO Building Blocks.ResultsIncluded reports numbered 183. Flooding and high winds were the most common type of extreme weather event documented. The main community experience themes identified were displacement of populations and disruption. The main themes identified for health service delivery were: Vulnerability, Disruption and Resilience. Documented examples of resilience or recovery were far fewer for all six WHO healthcare system Building Blocks than descriptions of vulnerability and disruption.ConclusionsExtreme weather events can be highly disruptive and harmful to health care systems and communities in LMIC settings that are often already highly vulnerable.
Kenny, John
Book Review: Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion: A Guide for Decision-Makers By Clifford Young and Kathryn Ziemer. Journal Article
In: Italian Political Science Review / Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 2026, ISSN: 0048-8402.
@article{283f596dcbe943028bbe09e5d5f1aa43,
title = {Book Review: Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion: A Guide for Decision-Makers By Clifford Young and Kathryn Ziemer.},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1017/ipo.2025.10085},
issn = {0048-8402},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-12},
journal = {Italian Political Science Review / Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
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2025
Jones, David; Maria, Corrado Di; Valente, Simone
Financial Intermediation and Structural Change Journal Article
In: The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2025, ISSN: 0347-0520.
@article{a72bbb1d4d2c49a6bf73c672cc0d7a87,
title = {Financial Intermediation and Structural Change},
author = {David Jones and Corrado Di Maria and Simone Valente},
issn = {0347-0520},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-19},
journal = {The Scandinavian Journal of Economics},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Does financial intermediation affect structural change? We address this question both theoretically and empirically, focussing on whether financial development reinforces structural change during the post-industrialization phase, where employment, value-added and expenditure shares change towards services and away from manufacturing. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model in which structural change may be driven by mutually independent engines – sectoral productivity gaps, asymmetric factor elasticities – as well as by learning by doing. In all its variants, the model robustly predicts that exogenous reductions in intermediation costs – e.g., deregulation shocks – reinforce structural change. We take this prediction to the data by examining the effects of bank branching deregulation in the United States in the 1960s-1990s period. Within a staggered difference-in-differences framework, we show that bank branching deregulation reinforced the pattern of structural change already underway, leading to an increase in the services share of output and employment in deregulated states.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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Does financial intermediation affect structural change? We address this question both theoretically and empirically, focussing on whether financial development reinforces structural change during the post-industrialization phase, where employment, value-added and expenditure shares change towards services and away from manufacturing. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model in which structural change may be driven by mutually independent engines – sectoral productivity gaps, asymmetric factor elasticities – as well as by learning by doing. In all its variants, the model robustly predicts that exogenous reductions in intermediation costs – e.g., deregulation shocks – reinforce structural change. We take this prediction to the data by examining the effects of bank branching deregulation in the United States in the 1960s-1990s period. Within a staggered difference-in-differences framework, we show that bank branching deregulation reinforced the pattern of structural change already underway, leading to an increase in the services share of output and employment in deregulated states.
Ouyang, Zutao; Jackson, Robert B.; Saunois, Marielle; Canadell, Josep G.; Zhao, Yuanhong; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Krummel, Paul B.; Patra, Prabir K.; Peters, Glen P.; Dennison, Fraser; Gasser, Thomas; Archibald, Alexander T.; Arora, Vivek; Baudoin, Gabriel; Chandra, Naveen; Ciais, Philippe; Davis, Stephen J.; Feron, Sarah; Guo, Fangzhou; Hauglustaine, Didier; Jones, Christopher D.; Jones, Matthew; Kato, Etsushi; Kennedy, Daniel; Knauer, Jürgen; Lienert, Sebastian; Lombardozzi, Danica; Melton, Joe R.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; O'Sullivan, Michael; Pétron, Gabrielle; Poulter, Benjamin; Rogelj, Joeri; Calle, David Sandoval; Smith, Pete; Suntharalingam, Parvadha; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Chenghao; Wiltshire, Andy
The global hydrogen budget Journal Article
In: Nature, vol. 648, no. 8094, pp. 616–624, 2025, ISSN: 0028-0836, (Data availability Anthropogenic emission data: CEDS data are available from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/input4MIPs/, EDCAR v.8.1 is available from https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ap81/, ECLIPSE v.6b is available from https://iiasa.ac.at/models-tools-data/ global-emission-fields-of-air-pollutants-and-ghgs/. Fire burning and emission data: GFED is available from https://www.globalfiredata. org/, FINN is available from https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/d312009/, GFAS is available from ECMWF at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/ dataset/global-fire-assimilation-system, and QFED is available from https://ftp.as.harvard.edu/gcgrid/data/ExtData/HEMCO/QFED/v2018· 07/. CMIP6 fire data is obtained from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/ input4MIPs/. Biogenic VOC emission data: MEGANv3.2 VOC is obtained from https://www.scidb.cn/en/detail?dataSetId=flcdb0cfbd70410d 88f491a75844912b, and CAMS-GLOB-BIOvl.2, CAMS-GLOB-BIOv3.0, CAMS-GLOB-BlOv3.1, and MEGAN-MACC are obtained from https:// eccad.aeris-data.fr/. OH fields and CH, fields: INVAST OH Fields can be requested from Didier Hauglustaine, other seven CMIP6 OH fields are available from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/input4MIPs/, The three CH4 fields can be requested from Marielle Saunois and Prabir K. Patra. Soil attributes: GLDAS data are available from https://ldas.gsfc. nasa.gov/gldas, and TRENDY model data are obtained from individual modelers and also partially available at https://mdosullivan.github.io/ GCB/. Different emission factors are summarized in Supplementary Information, and the gridded Η2 sinks and sources data produced in this study is available at Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/records/17162658). Figure 2 is created using Adobe Illustrator. Source data are provided with this paper.).
@article{f45a17f7065f47bfb398bb42953a6654,
title = {The global hydrogen budget},
author = {Zutao Ouyang and Robert B. Jackson and Marielle Saunois and Josep G. Canadell and Yuanhong Zhao and Catherine Morfopoulos and Paul B. Krummel and Prabir K. Patra and Glen P. Peters and Fraser Dennison and Thomas Gasser and Alexander T. Archibald and Vivek Arora and Gabriel Baudoin and Naveen Chandra and Philippe Ciais and Stephen J. Davis and Sarah Feron and Fangzhou Guo and Didier Hauglustaine and Christopher D. Jones and Matthew Jones and Etsushi Kato and Daniel Kennedy and Jürgen Knauer and Sebastian Lienert and Danica Lombardozzi and Joe R. Melton and Julia E. M. S. Nabel and Michael O'Sullivan and Gabrielle Pétron and Benjamin Poulter and Joeri Rogelj and David Sandoval Calle and Pete Smith and Parvadha Suntharalingam and Hanqin Tian and Chenghao Wang and Andy Wiltshire},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1},
issn = {0028-0836},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-17},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {648},
number = {8094},
pages = {616–624},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2,3,4,5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr−1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr−1, respectively, for 2010–2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01–0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production.},
note = {Data availability Anthropogenic emission data: CEDS data are available from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/input4MIPs/, EDCAR v.8.1 is available from https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ap81/, ECLIPSE v.6b is available from https://iiasa.ac.at/models-tools-data/ global-emission-fields-of-air-pollutants-and-ghgs/. Fire burning and emission data: GFED is available from https://www.globalfiredata. org/, FINN is available from https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/d312009/, GFAS is available from ECMWF at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/ dataset/global-fire-assimilation-system, and QFED is available from https://ftp.as.harvard.edu/gcgrid/data/ExtData/HEMCO/QFED/v2018· 07/. CMIP6 fire data is obtained from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/ input4MIPs/. Biogenic VOC emission data: MEGANv3.2 VOC is obtained from https://www.scidb.cn/en/detail?dataSetId=flcdb0cfbd70410d 88f491a75844912b, and CAMS-GLOB-BIOvl.2, CAMS-GLOB-BIOv3.0, CAMS-GLOB-BlOv3.1, and MEGAN-MACC are obtained from https:// eccad.aeris-data.fr/. OH fields and CH, fields: INVAST OH Fields can be requested from Didier Hauglustaine, other seven CMIP6 OH fields are available from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/input4MIPs/, The three CH4 fields can be requested from Marielle Saunois and Prabir K. Patra. Soil attributes: GLDAS data are available from https://ldas.gsfc. nasa.gov/gldas, and TRENDY model data are obtained from individual modelers and also partially available at https://mdosullivan.github.io/ GCB/. Different emission factors are summarized in Supplementary Information, and the gridded Η2 sinks and sources data produced in this study is available at Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/records/17162658). Figure 2 is created using Adobe Illustrator. Source data are provided with this paper.},
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pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2,3,4,5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr−1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr−1, respectively, for 2010–2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01–0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production.
Kenny, John; Fisher, Stephen D.
Europeans’ climate consciousness: Increased yet more politicised Journal Article
In: Environmental Politics, 2025, ISSN: 0964-4016, (Data availability statement: The data analysed in this paper is accessible through the European Social Survey DataPortal: https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/data-portal).
@article{4971d2cd96534abf8507b4e29d401986,
title = {Europeans’ climate consciousness: Increased yet more politicised},
author = {John Kenny and Stephen D. Fisher},
doi = {10.1080/09644016.2025.2597649},
issn = {0964-4016},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-16},
journal = {Environmental Politics},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {As climate change became more important to voters and political parties in the late 2010s in Europe, this paper asks whether aspects of public opinion on the issue also became more politicised, in the sense of being more closely linked to either party-family vote choice or left–right identity. We consider change from Wave 8 (2016–17) to Wave 10 (2020–22) of the European Social Survey (ESS). Climate consciousness increased overall, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. Politicisation of climate change increased mostly in Western Europe, where climate consciousness increased more on the left, and for left-wing party voters, than on the right. The Populist-Right party family, as a group, was distinctive in the relative stability of climate consciousness among their voters. Our results show increased politicisation of climate change attitudes within Western European countries, but also convergence between polities of the East and West at higher levels of climate consciousness.},
note = {Data availability statement: The data analysed in this paper is accessible through the European Social Survey DataPortal: https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/data-portal},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
As climate change became more important to voters and political parties in the late 2010s in Europe, this paper asks whether aspects of public opinion on the issue also became more politicised, in the sense of being more closely linked to either party-family vote choice or left–right identity. We consider change from Wave 8 (2016–17) to Wave 10 (2020–22) of the European Social Survey (ESS). Climate consciousness increased overall, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. Politicisation of climate change increased mostly in Western Europe, where climate consciousness increased more on the left, and for left-wing party voters, than on the right. The Populist-Right party family, as a group, was distinctive in the relative stability of climate consciousness among their voters. Our results show increased politicisation of climate change attitudes within Western European countries, but also convergence between polities of the East and West at higher levels of climate consciousness.
Villaseñor, Adrián; Esposito, Lucio; Kumar, Sunil; Macedo, Sandra
The absolute and relative facets of the economic gradient in educational attainment: large-scale evidence from Brazil Journal Article
In: European Journal of Development Research, 2025, ISSN: 0957-8811.
@article{5346430cb92e4ae7934ffa5b483e5541,
title = {The absolute and relative facets of the economic gradient in educational attainment: large-scale evidence from Brazil},
author = {Adrián Villaseñor and Lucio Esposito and Sunil Kumar and Sandra Macedo},
issn = {0957-8811},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-15},
journal = {European Journal of Development Research},
publisher = {Palgrave Macmillian},
abstract = {A large body of research has shown that students from better-off households tend to have higher educational achievement. However, there is scant evidence able to disentangle the role of absolute and relative economic status in affording this advantage. We address this gap by estimating econometric models where the two measures of economic status are jointly employed as explanatory variables: household income (reflecting command over resources) and relative deprivation (reflecting economic disadvantage relative to students in the same school). Using large data from seven waves of Brazilian high-stakes secondary education exams (N~8 million), we show robust evidence that both household income (0.020 SD [p<0.000]) and relative deprivation (-0.068 SD [p<0.000]) are significant predictors of exam scores. This suggests that the nature of the educational advantage granted by economic status is twofold. Although the variables available in the dataset do not allow us to test for specific mechanisms, the literature from an array of academic disciplines supports the interpretation of our empirical results that alongside the role played by household income through material pathways to education (e.g. affordability of a range of educational inputs such as food, transport, learning material, school fees, etc.), relative deprivation might also shape outcomes through psychosocial pathways related to self-esteem, aspirations, motivation and identity. In addition, our results suggest that the effects of relative deprivation might be more detrimental for those in households with higher incomes.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
A large body of research has shown that students from better-off households tend to have higher educational achievement. However, there is scant evidence able to disentangle the role of absolute and relative economic status in affording this advantage. We address this gap by estimating econometric models where the two measures of economic status are jointly employed as explanatory variables: household income (reflecting command over resources) and relative deprivation (reflecting economic disadvantage relative to students in the same school). Using large data from seven waves of Brazilian high-stakes secondary education exams (N~8 million), we show robust evidence that both household income (0.020 SD [p<0.000]) and relative deprivation (-0.068 SD [p<0.000]) are significant predictors of exam scores. This suggests that the nature of the educational advantage granted by economic status is twofold. Although the variables available in the dataset do not allow us to test for specific mechanisms, the literature from an array of academic disciplines supports the interpretation of our empirical results that alongside the role played by household income through material pathways to education (e.g. affordability of a range of educational inputs such as food, transport, learning material, school fees, etc.), relative deprivation might also shape outcomes through psychosocial pathways related to self-esteem, aspirations, motivation and identity. In addition, our results suggest that the effects of relative deprivation might be more detrimental for those in households with higher incomes.
Brown, David; Martin, Adrian; Fisher, Janet A.; Gingembre, Mathilde
Towards a transformative approach to just rural transitions: Landscape restoration in the Scottish highlands Journal Article
In: Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space, vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 1839–1865, 2025, ISSN: 2514-8486, (Data availability statement: The data that has been used is confidential. Funding information: This work was supported by the JPI Climate- SOLSTICE programme (SOLSTICE Consortium Agreement, 2020-12-1) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council Landscape Decisions Fellowship (grant no. NE/V007904/1).).
@article{014e86f8686e4505a1cc2e412c5362f5,
title = {Towards a transformative approach to just rural transitions: Landscape restoration in the Scottish highlands},
author = {David Brown and Adrian Martin and Janet A. Fisher and Mathilde Gingembre},
doi = {10.1177/25148486251367163},
issn = {2514-8486},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space},
volume = {8},
number = {6},
pages = {1839–1865},
publisher = {Sage Publications},
abstract = {Driven by international policy agendas to restore landscapes, large-scale land-use changes are expected in rural areas, with significant implications for landscape characteristics, land-uses, livelihoods, economies and cultures. It is increasingly recognised that the long-term success of restoration initiatives requires integrating social considerations, yet uncertainties remain over the pathways for achieving this. This paper explores the basis for- and barriers to- a just and sustainable vision of the landscape through a case study of the Affric-Kintail area in the Scottish Highlands, a context in which environmental policy agendas and natural capital investments are driving rural landscape change. Drawing from multidimensional, empirical environmental justice, this paper investigates the diverse justice claims voiced by rural communities. The research highlights a spectrum of justice concerns tied to diverse, contested meanings and practices of just transitions, where we distinguish between socio-technical and transformative approaches to just transition. As a result, our case study points to fundamental structural and socio-economic barriers to realising just transformation in rural Scotland, rooted in vast inequalities in power, wealth and landownership, and a depth of justice concerns around rural landscape transformations which have so far been left aside by restoration agendas and just transition policy discourses.},
note = {Data availability statement: The data that has been used is confidential. Funding information: This work was supported by the JPI Climate- SOLSTICE programme (SOLSTICE Consortium Agreement, 2020-12-1) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council Landscape Decisions Fellowship (grant no. NE/V007904/1).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Driven by international policy agendas to restore landscapes, large-scale land-use changes are expected in rural areas, with significant implications for landscape characteristics, land-uses, livelihoods, economies and cultures. It is increasingly recognised that the long-term success of restoration initiatives requires integrating social considerations, yet uncertainties remain over the pathways for achieving this. This paper explores the basis for- and barriers to- a just and sustainable vision of the landscape through a case study of the Affric-Kintail area in the Scottish Highlands, a context in which environmental policy agendas and natural capital investments are driving rural landscape change. Drawing from multidimensional, empirical environmental justice, this paper investigates the diverse justice claims voiced by rural communities. The research highlights a spectrum of justice concerns tied to diverse, contested meanings and practices of just transitions, where we distinguish between socio-technical and transformative approaches to just transition. As a result, our case study points to fundamental structural and socio-economic barriers to realising just transformation in rural Scotland, rooted in vast inequalities in power, wealth and landownership, and a depth of justice concerns around rural landscape transformations which have so far been left aside by restoration agendas and just transition policy discourses.
Mahony, Martin; Barclay, Jenni; Pascal, Karen; Pyle, David M.; Scarlett, Jazmin
Science in a crisis: Assembling volcanic knowledge in twentieth century Montserrat Journal Article
In: Journal of Historical Geography, vol. 90, pp. 1–12, 2025, ISSN: 0305-7488, (Data availability: The authors do not have permission to share data. Funding information: This research was supported by the UK Arts & Humanities Research Council (AHRC) and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), as part of the project ‘Curating Crises: The Past as a Key to Improving the Stewardship of Hazard Knowledge for the Future’ (AH/W00898X/1). Additional support was provided from the NERC Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET; to DMP) and the GCRF and Newton Fund Consolidation Accounts (GNCA; Oxford and UEA).).
@article{712c49bf480a44c38a5098df367f0e18,
title = {Science in a crisis: Assembling volcanic knowledge in twentieth century Montserrat},
author = {Martin Mahony and Jenni Barclay and Karen Pascal and David M. Pyle and Jazmin Scarlett},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhg.2025.08.002},
issn = {0305-7488},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Journal of Historical Geography},
volume = {90},
pages = {1–12},
publisher = {Academic Press Inc.},
abstract = {In the 1930s Montserrat, part of the British Leeward Islands colony, experienced a prolonged period of seismic unrest which many on the island interpreted as presaging a volcanic eruption. During the crisis several international scientists visited Montserrat and advised the local and imperial authorities on the likelihood of an eruption, and the island became a key node in an increasingly global volcanology. The process of assembling reliable knowledge about the volcanic system and its likely future behaviour was nonetheless heavily structured by colonial hierarchies and contestations over the reliability of different observers and the utility of long term monitoring. When the volcano eventually began erupting in 1995 it put paid to lingering governmental doubts over its very existence. We propose that work on the geographies of science has so far paid insufficient attention to the spatialities of crisis science, and that doing so can shed new light on both the history and persistence of colonial practices in the environmental sciences and in disaster management. Adopting longer perspectives on the politics of crisis science can yield new insights into the geographies and political geologies of a crisis-ridden present.},
note = {Data availability: The authors do not have permission to share data. Funding information: This research was supported by the UK Arts & Humanities Research Council (AHRC) and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), as part of the project ‘Curating Crises: The Past as a Key to Improving the Stewardship of Hazard Knowledge for the Future’ (AH/W00898X/1). Additional support was provided from the NERC Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET; to DMP) and the GCRF and Newton Fund Consolidation Accounts (GNCA; Oxford and UEA).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
In the 1930s Montserrat, part of the British Leeward Islands colony, experienced a prolonged period of seismic unrest which many on the island interpreted as presaging a volcanic eruption. During the crisis several international scientists visited Montserrat and advised the local and imperial authorities on the likelihood of an eruption, and the island became a key node in an increasingly global volcanology. The process of assembling reliable knowledge about the volcanic system and its likely future behaviour was nonetheless heavily structured by colonial hierarchies and contestations over the reliability of different observers and the utility of long term monitoring. When the volcano eventually began erupting in 1995 it put paid to lingering governmental doubts over its very existence. We propose that work on the geographies of science has so far paid insufficient attention to the spatialities of crisis science, and that doing so can shed new light on both the history and persistence of colonial practices in the environmental sciences and in disaster management. Adopting longer perspectives on the politics of crisis science can yield new insights into the geographies and political geologies of a crisis-ridden present.
Cahillane, Ashley; Forster, Johanna; Kołbuk, Dorota; Brannigan, John
Offshore cultural ecosystem services: evidence from open-sea research Journal Article
In: Ecosystem Services, vol. 76, 2025, ISSN: 2212-0416, (Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request.).
@article{23b11ead14804c16a6a10cd28ab47754,
title = {Offshore cultural ecosystem services: evidence from open-sea research},
author = {Ashley Cahillane and Johanna Forster and Dorota Kołbuk and John Brannigan},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecoser.2025.101783},
issn = {2212-0416},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Ecosystem Services},
volume = {76},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Offshore marine environments tend to be characterised as uninhabited resource pools, and therefore, compared to terrestrial and coastal environments, have received little attention as sources of cultural ecosystem benefits. Ecosystem valuations of offshore marine areas have largely been based on the monetary values of provisioning and regulating services, and have not taken full account of intangible and non-monetary values. Effective management of marine areas depends upon a comprehensive assessment of the wide range of ecosystem benefits to society, including such cultural benefits as sense of place, cultural identity, aesthetic appreciation and inspiration, connection with nature, and education and research. This paper describes a novel approach to collecting data on cultural ecosystem benefits in offshore areas by stationing a cultural ecosystem services researcher on board a research vessel to carry out observational and ethnographic research, and to conduct semi-structured interviews with researchers and crew. The approach draws from humanities and social science methodologies for investigating embodied experiences, emotional responses, and psychological attachments. Results show a wide range of cultural ecosystem benefits associated with offshore, and a high degree of recognition of the sea as a powerful yet vulnerable environment demanding care and respect. Greater understanding of the cultural values of key users of offshore marine ecosystems will help to inform more effective marine management decisions and practices, and there is considerable scope for in situ participatory and observational research as described in this paper to help to achieve a more holistic assessment of marine cultural ecosystem benefits.},
note = {Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Offshore marine environments tend to be characterised as uninhabited resource pools, and therefore, compared to terrestrial and coastal environments, have received little attention as sources of cultural ecosystem benefits. Ecosystem valuations of offshore marine areas have largely been based on the monetary values of provisioning and regulating services, and have not taken full account of intangible and non-monetary values. Effective management of marine areas depends upon a comprehensive assessment of the wide range of ecosystem benefits to society, including such cultural benefits as sense of place, cultural identity, aesthetic appreciation and inspiration, connection with nature, and education and research. This paper describes a novel approach to collecting data on cultural ecosystem benefits in offshore areas by stationing a cultural ecosystem services researcher on board a research vessel to carry out observational and ethnographic research, and to conduct semi-structured interviews with researchers and crew. The approach draws from humanities and social science methodologies for investigating embodied experiences, emotional responses, and psychological attachments. Results show a wide range of cultural ecosystem benefits associated with offshore, and a high degree of recognition of the sea as a powerful yet vulnerable environment demanding care and respect. Greater understanding of the cultural values of key users of offshore marine ecosystems will help to inform more effective marine management decisions and practices, and there is considerable scope for in situ participatory and observational research as described in this paper to help to achieve a more holistic assessment of marine cultural ecosystem benefits.
Sayers, P. B.; Birkinshaw, S. J.; Carr, S.; He, Y.; Lewis, L.; Smith, B.; Redhead, J.; Pywell, R.; Ford, A.; Virgo, J.; Nicholls, R. J.; Price, J.; Warren, R.; Forstenhäusler, N.; Smith, A.; Russell, A.
A national assessment of natural flood management and its contribution to fluvial flood risk reduction Journal Article
In: Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol. 18, no. 4, 2025, ISSN: 1753-318X, (The underlying HBV and SHETRAN results are available on DAFNI for registered users. Further datasets continued to be added.).
@article{6eddca46464a45b6a8ea63e59fd6adba,
title = {A national assessment of natural flood management and its contribution to fluvial flood risk reduction},
author = {P. B. Sayers and S. J. Birkinshaw and S. Carr and Y. He and L. Lewis and B. Smith and J. Redhead and R. Pywell and A. Ford and J. Virgo and R. J. Nicholls and J. Price and R. Warren and N. Forstenhäusler and A. Smith and A. Russell},
doi = {10.1111/jfr3.70151},
issn = {1753-318X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
volume = {18},
number = {4},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {The desire to promote Natural Flood Management (NFM) has not yet been matched by implementation. In part, this reflects thelack of scientific evidence regarding the ability of NFM measures to contribute to risk reduction at the national scale. Broad scaleunderstanding, as exemplified for Great Britain in this paper, is necessary evidence for policy development and a prerequisitefor implementation at scale. This does not imply a lack of confidence in the wider benefits that NFM provide (for biodiversity,carbon sequestration, well-being and many others), but without credible quantified flood risk reduction evidence, progress hasbeen slow. This paper integrates national-scale hydrological models (using SHETRAN and HBV-TYN) and fluvial flood riskanalysis (using the Future Flood Explorer, FFE) to quantify the flood risk reduction benefits of NFM across Great Britain underconditions of future climate and socio-economic change. An optimisation of these benefits is presented considering alternativeNFM policy ambitions and other demands on land (urban development, agriculture, and biodiversity). The findings suggest NFMhas the potential to make a significant contribution to national flood risk reduction when implemented as part of a portfolio ofmeasures. An optimisation through to 2100 suggests investment in NFM achieves a benefit-to-cost ratio of ~3 to 5 (based on thereduction in Expected Annual Damage (EAD) to residential properties alone). By the 2050s, this equates to an ~£80 m reductionin EAD under a scenario of low population growth and a 2°C rise in global warming by 2100. This increases to £110 m given ascenario of high population growth and a 4°C rise. Assuming current levels of adaptation continue in all other aspects of floodrisk management, this represents ~9%–13% of the reduction in EAD achieved by the portfolio as a whole. By the 2080s, the con-tribution of NFM to risk reduction increases to ~£110 and ~£145 m under these two scenarios. These figures are based on thereduction in EAD to residential properties alone, and do not include the substantial co-benefits that would also accrue.},
note = {The underlying HBV and SHETRAN results are available on DAFNI for registered users. Further datasets continued to be added.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The desire to promote Natural Flood Management (NFM) has not yet been matched by implementation. In part, this reflects thelack of scientific evidence regarding the ability of NFM measures to contribute to risk reduction at the national scale. Broad scaleunderstanding, as exemplified for Great Britain in this paper, is necessary evidence for policy development and a prerequisitefor implementation at scale. This does not imply a lack of confidence in the wider benefits that NFM provide (for biodiversity,carbon sequestration, well-being and many others), but without credible quantified flood risk reduction evidence, progress hasbeen slow. This paper integrates national-scale hydrological models (using SHETRAN and HBV-TYN) and fluvial flood riskanalysis (using the Future Flood Explorer, FFE) to quantify the flood risk reduction benefits of NFM across Great Britain underconditions of future climate and socio-economic change. An optimisation of these benefits is presented considering alternativeNFM policy ambitions and other demands on land (urban development, agriculture, and biodiversity). The findings suggest NFMhas the potential to make a significant contribution to national flood risk reduction when implemented as part of a portfolio ofmeasures. An optimisation through to 2100 suggests investment in NFM achieves a benefit-to-cost ratio of ~3 to 5 (based on thereduction in Expected Annual Damage (EAD) to residential properties alone). By the 2050s, this equates to an ~£80 m reductionin EAD under a scenario of low population growth and a 2°C rise in global warming by 2100. This increases to £110 m given ascenario of high population growth and a 4°C rise. Assuming current levels of adaptation continue in all other aspects of floodrisk management, this represents ~9%–13% of the reduction in EAD achieved by the portfolio as a whole. By the 2080s, the con-tribution of NFM to risk reduction increases to ~£110 and ~£145 m under these two scenarios. These figures are based on thereduction in EAD to residential properties alone, and do not include the substantial co-benefits that would also accrue.
Anthony, E.; Syvitski, J.; Cohen, K. M.; Saito, Y.; Zăinescu, F.; Vespremeanu-Stroe, A.; j. Nicholls, R.; Marriner, N.; Amorosi, A.; Maselli, V.; s. j. Minderhoud, P.; Tamura, T.; Day, J.; d. Woodroffe, C.; Preoteasa, L.; Tatui, F.; Sabatier, F.; Morhange, C.; Besset, M.; Kemp, P.; Chen, Z.
A 7000-year record of human influence on Global River Deltas: Geomorphology, stratigraphy, the Anthropocene overprint and future Journal Article
In: Earth-Science Reviews, vol. 271, 2025, ISSN: 0012-8252, (Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article.).
@article{1aa59fbf564a450f9c4b4f8d51733942,
title = {A 7000-year record of human influence on Global River Deltas: Geomorphology, stratigraphy, the Anthropocene overprint and future},
author = {E. Anthony and J. Syvitski and K. M. Cohen and Y. Saito and F. Zăinescu and A. Vespremeanu-Stroe and R. j. Nicholls and N. Marriner and A. Amorosi and V. Maselli and P. s. j. Minderhoud and T. Tamura and J. Day and C. d. Woodroffe and L. Preoteasa and F. Tatui and F. Sabatier and C. Morhange and M. Besset and P. Kemp and Z. Chen},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105302},
issn = {0012-8252},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
volume = {271},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {With the inception of most of the world's deltas about 8000 years ago, deltaic floodplains started offering, about a thousand years later, arable land, water and ecosystem services for early human settlements. We identify delta geomorphic changes and proxies and geoarchaeological markers of the human presence on deltas and in their stratigraphy over the last 7000 years, and from ancient maps. We analyse the human-delta relationship in four phases: Neolithic, Metal Ages, Common Era, and Anthropocene, marking increasing human adaptation to changing delta geomorphology modulated by fluctuations in relative sea level and fluvial sediment supply. These adaptations fostered the emergence of urbanization and served as a catalyst for technological innovation and human modification of deltas. The sparse Neolithic human presence in delta stratigraphy gradually expanded to become pervasive in the contemporary Anthropocene, reflecting the twin effects of global population growth and increasingly favourable conditions for humans. We explore the links between early deltaic and non-deltaic communities and gauge the impact of humans on sediment supply from river catchments, and its consequences, notably in terms of frequent delta avulsions, expansion or vulnerability, and explore its inextricable links with climate variation. The Anthropocene is witnessing a profoundly transformed, globally distributed, human-managed delta landscape dominated by important urbanization, reduction in sediment supply, increasing intentional but also unintentional delta modifications, and vulnerability to sea-level rise compounded by exacerbated subsidence. Understanding the human-delta relationship over the past 7000 years contributes to fostering stronger links between geoscience and cultural heritage, to better delta management and sustainability, including an upstream river-basin scale perspective, and to better anticipation of delta futures, notably under the threat of sea-level rise.},
note = {Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
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With the inception of most of the world's deltas about 8000 years ago, deltaic floodplains started offering, about a thousand years later, arable land, water and ecosystem services for early human settlements. We identify delta geomorphic changes and proxies and geoarchaeological markers of the human presence on deltas and in their stratigraphy over the last 7000 years, and from ancient maps. We analyse the human-delta relationship in four phases: Neolithic, Metal Ages, Common Era, and Anthropocene, marking increasing human adaptation to changing delta geomorphology modulated by fluctuations in relative sea level and fluvial sediment supply. These adaptations fostered the emergence of urbanization and served as a catalyst for technological innovation and human modification of deltas. The sparse Neolithic human presence in delta stratigraphy gradually expanded to become pervasive in the contemporary Anthropocene, reflecting the twin effects of global population growth and increasingly favourable conditions for humans. We explore the links between early deltaic and non-deltaic communities and gauge the impact of humans on sediment supply from river catchments, and its consequences, notably in terms of frequent delta avulsions, expansion or vulnerability, and explore its inextricable links with climate variation. The Anthropocene is witnessing a profoundly transformed, globally distributed, human-managed delta landscape dominated by important urbanization, reduction in sediment supply, increasing intentional but also unintentional delta modifications, and vulnerability to sea-level rise compounded by exacerbated subsidence. Understanding the human-delta relationship over the past 7000 years contributes to fostering stronger links between geoscience and cultural heritage, to better delta management and sustainability, including an upstream river-basin scale perspective, and to better anticipation of delta futures, notably under the threat of sea-level rise.
Raj, Rengalakshmi; Ravula, Padmaja; Kumari, Pratheepa; Bhanjdeo, Arundhita; Sogani, Reetu; Rao, Nitya
Male migration and the transformation of gendered agriculture work: A comparative exploration of heterogeneity across selected Indian states Journal Article
In: Gender, Place & Culture, vol. 32, no. 12, pp. 1757–1785, 2025, ISSN: 0966-369X, (Funding information: Funding support for this study was provided by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Grant Ref: BB/P027970/1 under the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) award to Transforming India’s Green Revolution by Research and Empowerment for Sustainable food Supplies (TIGR2ESS).).
@article{f61943b087a04392a0afcf0f39d0d654,
title = {Male migration and the transformation of gendered agriculture work: A comparative exploration of heterogeneity across selected Indian states},
author = {Rengalakshmi Raj and Padmaja Ravula and Pratheepa Kumari and Arundhita Bhanjdeo and Reetu Sogani and Nitya Rao},
doi = {10.1080/0966369X.2025.2468178},
issn = {0966-369X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Gender, Place & Culture},
volume = {32},
number = {12},
pages = {1757–1785},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Male migration among agriculture-dependent households has emerged as an important livelihood strategy for coping with poverty, food insecurity, climate change, and several other risks and shocks in the Global South. Emerging research on the impacts of male migration on women’s agency, especially in agricultural production and decision-making, paints a one-size-fits-all picture. This paper, through a comparative, qualitative analysis of the implications of male out-migration on gender roles and responsibilities in agriculture across four different agroecologies in India – forested, mountainous, semi-arid, and coastal – highlights the heterogeneity in women’s experiences of male migration in the Indian context. While the nature of migration and the amount and regularity of remittances shape the increase or decline in women’s work and responsibilities, factors like age, caste, class, life stage, and context also play a significant role. We note that current scholarship has given too much importance to the narrative on remittance-driven livelihoods at the cost of multiple factors that shape women’s roles, experiences, and strategic choices in migrant-sending communities. What appears critical for transformative change is state policy that facilitates and enables collective action, central to overcoming the patriarchal constraints women encounter, especially as they shift from labouring to managerial roles in farming.},
note = {Funding information: Funding support for this study was provided by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Grant Ref: BB/P027970/1 under the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) award to Transforming India’s Green Revolution by Research and Empowerment for Sustainable food Supplies (TIGR2ESS).},
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Male migration among agriculture-dependent households has emerged as an important livelihood strategy for coping with poverty, food insecurity, climate change, and several other risks and shocks in the Global South. Emerging research on the impacts of male migration on women’s agency, especially in agricultural production and decision-making, paints a one-size-fits-all picture. This paper, through a comparative, qualitative analysis of the implications of male out-migration on gender roles and responsibilities in agriculture across four different agroecologies in India – forested, mountainous, semi-arid, and coastal – highlights the heterogeneity in women’s experiences of male migration in the Indian context. While the nature of migration and the amount and regularity of remittances shape the increase or decline in women’s work and responsibilities, factors like age, caste, class, life stage, and context also play a significant role. We note that current scholarship has given too much importance to the narrative on remittance-driven livelihoods at the cost of multiple factors that shape women’s roles, experiences, and strategic choices in migrant-sending communities. What appears critical for transformative change is state policy that facilitates and enables collective action, central to overcoming the patriarchal constraints women encounter, especially as they shift from labouring to managerial roles in farming.
Wilson, Charlie; Arvanitopoulos, Theodoros; Schaub, Simon; Jordan, Andrew; Tosun, Jale; Vasilakos, Nicholas
Climate policy portfolios that accelerate emission reductions Journal Article
In: Nature Communications, 2025, ISSN: 2041-1723.
@article{6c07a28b92e14905bcaca43893a6ae30,
title = {Climate policy portfolios that accelerate emission reductions},
author = {Charlie Wilson and Theodoros Arvanitopoulos and Simon Schaub and Andrew Jordan and Jale Tosun and Nicholas Vasilakos},
issn = {2041-1723},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-27},
journal = {Nature Communications},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {The corpus of national climate policies continues to grow, but to what effect? Using data on 2,782 policy instruments in 43 OECD countries and major emerging economies over the period 2000–2019 we show that national climate policy portfolios that specialise on certain instrument types and sectors are associated with faster reductions in fossil CO2 emission intensity. Supported by exemplar country case studies, we also provide quantitative evidence that the effectiveness of climate policy is amplified by the presence of long-term emission reduction targets and governmental bodies including dedicated ministries and intergovernmental organisations. Over the study period, the cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by adopting all portfolios amounted to 15.9 GtCO2 of which half was in the emerging economies. Our findings identify what type of climate policy portfolios are best at accelerating emission reductions in line with Paris Agreement goals.},
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The corpus of national climate policies continues to grow, but to what effect? Using data on 2,782 policy instruments in 43 OECD countries and major emerging economies over the period 2000–2019 we show that national climate policy portfolios that specialise on certain instrument types and sectors are associated with faster reductions in fossil CO2 emission intensity. Supported by exemplar country case studies, we also provide quantitative evidence that the effectiveness of climate policy is amplified by the presence of long-term emission reduction targets and governmental bodies including dedicated ministries and intergovernmental organisations. Over the study period, the cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by adopting all portfolios amounted to 15.9 GtCO2 of which half was in the emerging economies. Our findings identify what type of climate policy portfolios are best at accelerating emission reductions in line with Paris Agreement goals.
Jennings, Will; Kenny, John; Roescu, Andra; Smedley, Stuart; Weldon, Kathleen; Enns, Peter K.
In: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 2025, ISSN: 1745-7289.
@article{1e7d54c2f8984a108fede39391d79ddc,
title = {Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the Gallup Poll in Britain, 1955–1991},
author = {Will Jennings and John Kenny and Andra Roescu and Stuart Smedley and Kathleen Weldon and Peter K. Enns},
doi = {10.1080/17457289.2025.2585102},
issn = {1745-7289},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-22},
journal = {Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {From the 1930s to early 2000s, the British affiliate and later subsidiary of the Gallup Organization conducted around three thousand surveys of public opinion in Great Britain. While the records of the headline results of some of these polls can be found in Gallup’s monthly reports and news reports from the time, most of the individual level survey data were previously believed to have been lost. This article details how we have been able to reconstruct much of this important historical record, converting almost 800 survey datasets from 1955 to 1991 found in the archives of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. It first offers a brief overview of how the data were converted from the original column-binary format and what it reveals about methodological practices of Gallup in Britain. We then develop weights to improve the representativeness of the data across the entire time period, using the data to offer a number of insights into long-term trends in British public opinion.},
keywords = {},
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From the 1930s to early 2000s, the British affiliate and later subsidiary of the Gallup Organization conducted around three thousand surveys of public opinion in Great Britain. While the records of the headline results of some of these polls can be found in Gallup’s monthly reports and news reports from the time, most of the individual level survey data were previously believed to have been lost. This article details how we have been able to reconstruct much of this important historical record, converting almost 800 survey datasets from 1955 to 1991 found in the archives of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. It first offers a brief overview of how the data were converted from the original column-binary format and what it reveals about methodological practices of Gallup in Britain. We then develop weights to improve the representativeness of the data across the entire time period, using the data to offer a number of insights into long-term trends in British public opinion.
Friedlingstein, Pierre; O'Sullivan, Michael; Jones, Matthew W.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Bakker, Dorothee C. E.; Hauck, Judith; Landschutzer, Peter; Quéré, Corinne Le; Li, Hongmei; Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Peters, Glen P.; Peters, Wouter; Pongratz, Julia; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Sitch, Stephen; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Aas, Kjetil; Alin, Simone R.; Anthoni, Peter; Barbero, Leticia; Bates, Nicholas R.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Benoit-Cattin, Alice; Berghoff, Carla F.; Bernardello, Raffaelle; Bopp, Laurent; Brasika, Ida B. M.; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Chandra, Naveen; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Collier, Nathan O.; Colligan, Thomas H.; Cronin, Margot; Djeutchouang, Laique; Dou, Xinyu; Enright, Matt P.; Enyo, Kazutaka; Erb, Michael; Evans, Wiley; Feely, Richard A.; Feng, Liang; Ford, Daniel J.; Foster, Adrianna; Fransner, Filippa; Gasser, Thomas; Gehlen, Marion; Gkritzalis, Thanos; Souza, Jefferson Goncalves De; Grassi, Giacomo; Gregor, Luke; Gruber, Nicolas; Guenet, Bertrand; Gürses, Özgür; Harrington, Kirsty; Harris, Ian; Heinke, Jens; Hurtt, George C.; Iida, Yosuke; Ilyina, Tatiana; Ito, Akihiko; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Jain, Atul K.; Jarníková, Tereza; Jersild, Annika; Jiang, Fei; Jones, Steve D.; Kato, Etsushi; Keeling, Ralph F.; Goldewijk, Kees Klein; Knauer, Jürgen; Kong, Yawen; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Koven, Charles; Kunimitsu, Taro; Lan, Xin; Liu, Junjie; Liu, Zhiqiang; Liu, Zhu; Monaco, Claire Lo; Ma, Lei; Marland, Gregg; Mcguire, Patrick C.; McKinley, Galen A.; Melton, Joe; Monacci, Natalie; Monier, Erwan; Morgan, Eric J.; Munro, David R.; Müller, Jens D.; Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro; Nayagam, Lorna R.; Niwa, Yosuke; Nutzel, Tobias; Olsen, Are; Omar, Abdirahman M.; Pan, Naiqing; Pandey, Sudhanshu; Pierrot, Denis; Qin, Zhangcai; Regnier, Pierre A. G.; Rehder, Gregor; Resplandy, Laure; Roobaert, Alizée; Rosan, Thais M.; Rödenbeck, Christian; Schwinger, Jörg; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Smallman, T. Luke; Spada, Victoria; Sreeush, Mohana G.; Sun, Qing; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Sweeney, Colm; Swingedouw, Didier; Séférian, Roland; Takao, Shintaro; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Tian, Hanqin; Tian, Xiangjun; Tilbrook, Bronte; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Tubiello, Francesco; Ooijen, Erik Van; Werf, Guido; Velde, Sebastiaan J.; Walker, Anthony; Wanninkhof, Rik; Yang, Xiaojuan; Yuan, Wenping; Yue, Xu; Zeng, Jiye
Global Carbon Budget 2025 Journal Article
In: Earth System Science Data, 2025, ISSN: 1866-3508, (Data sets Data Supporting the Global Carbon Budget 2025 P. Friedlingstein et al. https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025).
@article{4ee15f193d994ddfa079bd74ef575375,
title = {Global Carbon Budget 2025},
author = {Pierre Friedlingstein and Michael O'Sullivan and Matthew W. Jones and Robbie M. Andrew and Dorothee C. E. Bakker and Judith Hauck and Peter Landschutzer and Corinne Le Quéré and Hongmei Li and Ingrid T. Luijkx and Glen P. Peters and Wouter Peters and Julia Pongratz and Clemens Schwingshackl and Stephen Sitch and Josep G. Canadell and Philippe Ciais and Kjetil Aas and Simone R. Alin and Peter Anthoni and Leticia Barbero and Nicholas R. Bates and Nicolas Bellouin and Alice Benoit-Cattin and Carla F. Berghoff and Raffaelle Bernardello and Laurent Bopp and Ida B. M. Brasika and Matthew A. Chamberlain and Naveen Chandra and Frédéric Chevallier and Louise P. Chini and Nathan O. Collier and Thomas H. Colligan and Margot Cronin and Laique Djeutchouang and Xinyu Dou and Matt P. Enright and Kazutaka Enyo and Michael Erb and Wiley Evans and Richard A. Feely and Liang Feng and Daniel J. Ford and Adrianna Foster and Filippa Fransner and Thomas Gasser and Marion Gehlen and Thanos Gkritzalis and Jefferson Goncalves De Souza and Giacomo Grassi and Luke Gregor and Nicolas Gruber and Bertrand Guenet and Özgür Gürses and Kirsty Harrington and Ian Harris and Jens Heinke and George C. Hurtt and Yosuke Iida and Tatiana Ilyina and Akihiko Ito and Andrew R. Jacobson and Atul K. Jain and Tereza Jarníková and Annika Jersild and Fei Jiang and Steve D. Jones and Etsushi Kato and Ralph F. Keeling and Kees Klein Goldewijk and Jürgen Knauer and Yawen Kong and Jan Ivar Korsbakken and Charles Koven and Taro Kunimitsu and Xin Lan and Junjie Liu and Zhiqiang Liu and Zhu Liu and Claire Lo Monaco and Lei Ma and Gregg Marland and Patrick C. Mcguire and Galen A. McKinley and Joe Melton and Natalie Monacci and Erwan Monier and Eric J. Morgan and David R. Munro and Jens D. Müller and Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka and Lorna R. Nayagam and Yosuke Niwa and Tobias Nutzel and Are Olsen and Abdirahman M. Omar and Naiqing Pan and Sudhanshu Pandey and Denis Pierrot and Zhangcai Qin and Pierre A. G. Regnier and Gregor Rehder and Laure Resplandy and Alizée Roobaert and Thais M. Rosan and Christian Rödenbeck and Jörg Schwinger and Ingunn Skjelvan and T. Luke Smallman and Victoria Spada and Mohana G. Sreeush and Qing Sun and Adrienne J. Sutton and Colm Sweeney and Didier Swingedouw and Roland Séférian and Shintaro Takao and Hiroaki Tatebe and Hanqin Tian and Xiangjun Tian and Bronte Tilbrook and Hiroyuki Tsujino and Francesco Tubiello and Erik Van Ooijen and Guido Werf and Sebastiaan J. Velde and Anthony Walker and Rik Wanninkhof and Xiaojuan Yang and Wenping Yuan and Xu Yue and Jiye Zeng},
issn = {1866-3508},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-13},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
abstract = {Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use and land-use change data. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured at surface stations, and the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ.},
note = {Data sets Data Supporting the Global Carbon Budget 2025 P. Friedlingstein et al. https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025},
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use and land-use change data. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured at surface stations, and the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ.
Kumar, Sunil; Esposito, Lucio; Villaseñor, Adrián; Macedo, Sandra
Gender, race and their interplay with economic status: Intersectionality and asymmetric jeopardies in Brazilian education Journal Article
In: World Development, vol. 199, 2025, ISSN: 0305-750X, (Data availability: Data will be made available on request.).
@article{84ef2940744f43cba7187233e662635d,
title = {Gender, race and their interplay with economic status: Intersectionality and asymmetric jeopardies in Brazilian education},
author = {Sunil Kumar and Lucio Esposito and Adrián Villaseñor and Sandra Macedo},
doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107232},
issn = {0305-750X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-13},
journal = {World Development},
volume = {199},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {A large body of research has illustrated how inequalities in educational achievements globally are rooted in a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. However, the sources of educational disadvantages are too often considered in isolation, without addressing how they interplay with one another. Building upon the intersectionality and multiple jeopardy frameworks, in this paper we employ a sequential mixed-methods approach to analyse the role played by economic status, gender and race in shaping education attainment in Brazilian high-stakes secondary education exams. Our specific focus is on how economic status, conceptualised as comprising an absolute and a relative facet, interplays with gender and race. Our quantitative analysis reveals that the two components of economic status interplay symmetrically with gender but asymmetrically with race. Gender attainment gaps shrink with higher absolute and relative status. Race attainment gaps also shrink with higher absolute status, but they expand with higher relative status. We use the insights obtained from the literature as well as from our qualitative interviews to situate and explain these findings. Our work improves the understanding of the multifaceted disadvantage experienced by students from underprivileged households in Brazil, highlighting how economic inequality and discrimination hinder educational attainment and jeopardise social mobility.},
note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
A large body of research has illustrated how inequalities in educational achievements globally are rooted in a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. However, the sources of educational disadvantages are too often considered in isolation, without addressing how they interplay with one another. Building upon the intersectionality and multiple jeopardy frameworks, in this paper we employ a sequential mixed-methods approach to analyse the role played by economic status, gender and race in shaping education attainment in Brazilian high-stakes secondary education exams. Our specific focus is on how economic status, conceptualised as comprising an absolute and a relative facet, interplays with gender and race. Our quantitative analysis reveals that the two components of economic status interplay symmetrically with gender but asymmetrically with race. Gender attainment gaps shrink with higher absolute and relative status. Race attainment gaps also shrink with higher absolute status, but they expand with higher relative status. We use the insights obtained from the literature as well as from our qualitative interviews to situate and explain these findings. Our work improves the understanding of the multifaceted disadvantage experienced by students from underprivileged households in Brazil, highlighting how economic inequality and discrimination hinder educational attainment and jeopardise social mobility.
Friedlingstein, Pierre; Quéré, Corinne Le; O’Sullivan, Michael; Hauck, Judith; Landschützer, Peter; Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Li, Hongmei; der woude, Auke Van; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Pongratz, Julia; Regnier, Pierre; Andrew, Robbie M.; c. e. Bakker, Dorothee; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Gasser, Thomas; Jones, Matthew W.; Lan, Xin; Morgan, Eric; Olsen, Are; Peters, Glen P.; Peters, Wouter; Sitch, Stephen; Tian, Hanqin
Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget Journal Article
In: Nature, vol. 649, no. 8095, pp. 98–103, 2025, ISSN: 0028-0836, (Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.).
@article{927a2e137a084499abef532a18d7a573,
title = {Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget},
author = {Pierre Friedlingstein and Corinne Le Quéré and Michael O’Sullivan and Judith Hauck and Peter Landschützer and Ingrid T. Luijkx and Hongmei Li and Auke Van der woude and Clemens Schwingshackl and Julia Pongratz and Pierre Regnier and Robbie M. Andrew and Dorothee c. e. Bakker and Josep G. Canadell and Philippe Ciais and Thomas Gasser and Matthew W. Jones and Xin Lan and Eric Morgan and Are Olsen and Glen P. Peters and Wouter Peters and Stephen Sitch and Hanqin Tian},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-025-09802-5},
issn = {0028-0836},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-12},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {649},
number = {8095},
pages = {98–103},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {Despite the adoption of the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from burning fossil fuels continue to increase, pushing atmospheric CO 2 levels to 423 ppm in 2024 and driving human-induced warming to 1.36 °C, within years of breaching the 1.5 °C limit 1,2. Accurate reporting of anthropogenic and natural CO 2 sources and sinks is a prerequisite to tracking the effectiveness of climate policy and detecting carbon-sink responses to climate change. Yet notable mismatches between reported emissions and sinks have so far prevented confident interpretation of their trends and drivers 1. Here we present and integrate recent advances in observations and process understanding to address some long-standing issues in global carbon budget estimates. We show that the magnitude of the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, whereas net emissions from anthropogenic land-use change are revised upwards 1. The ocean sink is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with recent evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations 3,4. Climate change reduces the efficiency of the sinks, particularly on land, contributing 8.3 ± 1.4 ppm to the atmospheric CO 2 increase since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation have turned Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO 2 sinks to sources. This underscores the need to halt deforestation and limit warming to prevent further loss of carbon stored on land. Improved confidence in assessments of CO 2 sources and sinks is fundamental for effective climate policy.},
note = {Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
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Despite the adoption of the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from burning fossil fuels continue to increase, pushing atmospheric CO 2 levels to 423 ppm in 2024 and driving human-induced warming to 1.36 °C, within years of breaching the 1.5 °C limit 1,2. Accurate reporting of anthropogenic and natural CO 2 sources and sinks is a prerequisite to tracking the effectiveness of climate policy and detecting carbon-sink responses to climate change. Yet notable mismatches between reported emissions and sinks have so far prevented confident interpretation of their trends and drivers 1. Here we present and integrate recent advances in observations and process understanding to address some long-standing issues in global carbon budget estimates. We show that the magnitude of the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, whereas net emissions from anthropogenic land-use change are revised upwards 1. The ocean sink is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with recent evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations 3,4. Climate change reduces the efficiency of the sinks, particularly on land, contributing 8.3 ± 1.4 ppm to the atmospheric CO 2 increase since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation have turned Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO 2 sinks to sources. This underscores the need to halt deforestation and limit warming to prevent further loss of carbon stored on land. Improved confidence in assessments of CO 2 sources and sinks is fundamental for effective climate policy.
Lorenzoni, Irene; Jordan, Andrew James; Sullivan-Thomsett, Chantal; Geese, Lucas
A review of National Citizens’ Climate Assemblies: Learning from deliberative events Journal Article
In: Climate Policy, vol. 25, no. 9, pp. 1546–1562, 2025, ISSN: 1469-3062, (Funding information: Funding for this work was generously provided by a European Research Council Advanced Grant ‘DeepDCarb’ (Grant Number 882601) and the UK ESRC Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST, Phases 1 and 2) (ES/S012257/1 and UKRI072).).
@article{1e7b5f9fe6a146fcacc3835aba285d03,
title = {A review of National Citizens’ Climate Assemblies: Learning from deliberative events},
author = {Irene Lorenzoni and Andrew James Jordan and Chantal Sullivan-Thomsett and Lucas Geese},
doi = {10.1080/14693062.2024.2449416},
issn = {1469-3062},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-01},
journal = {Climate Policy},
volume = {25},
number = {9},
pages = {1546–1562},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
abstract = {Citizen’s Climate Assemblies (CCA) have been hailed by academics and non-academics as initiatives to improve the legitimacy and efficacy of climate policy governance. Yet it is only recently that such normative claims have been explored empirically. This article reviews the rapidly emerging literature on citizens’ assemblies – and specifically national citizens’ climate assemblies (NCCAs) – and related deliberative events. It critically reflects upon the emerging themes in the literature and assesses their significance for understanding climate policy and governance. It reveals that advocates of assemblies originally claimed that they would: (1) provide an opportunity to improve the input of evidence into policymaking; (2) raise the political awareness of climate action among citizens and elites; and (3) improve the quality of policymaking. However, a much more nuanced picture of their actual role is beginning to appear. It indicates that each assembly is in fact unique in character, shaped by how it combines design features and the contextual conditions in which they operate. This further affects their impact. Views on NCCAs vary significantly: whilst some politicians are dismissive of their contribution, environmental NGOs have generally been the most supportive; the reception among publics has varied greatly; business and industry have only recently begun to discuss their relevance. Although the recommendations of NCCAs are variously implemented, acknowledgement of their wider and deeper impacts is also emerging, alongside proposals for more systematic assessments of their long-term effects. We reflect on future prospects for NCCAs in relation to political institutions, policy processes and wider society.},
note = {Funding information: Funding for this work was generously provided by a European Research Council Advanced Grant ‘DeepDCarb’ (Grant Number 882601) and the UK ESRC Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST, Phases 1 and 2) (ES/S012257/1 and UKRI072).},
keywords = {},
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tppubtype = {article}
}
Citizen’s Climate Assemblies (CCA) have been hailed by academics and non-academics as initiatives to improve the legitimacy and efficacy of climate policy governance. Yet it is only recently that such normative claims have been explored empirically. This article reviews the rapidly emerging literature on citizens’ assemblies – and specifically national citizens’ climate assemblies (NCCAs) – and related deliberative events. It critically reflects upon the emerging themes in the literature and assesses their significance for understanding climate policy and governance. It reveals that advocates of assemblies originally claimed that they would: (1) provide an opportunity to improve the input of evidence into policymaking; (2) raise the political awareness of climate action among citizens and elites; and (3) improve the quality of policymaking. However, a much more nuanced picture of their actual role is beginning to appear. It indicates that each assembly is in fact unique in character, shaped by how it combines design features and the contextual conditions in which they operate. This further affects their impact. Views on NCCAs vary significantly: whilst some politicians are dismissive of their contribution, environmental NGOs have generally been the most supportive; the reception among publics has varied greatly; business and industry have only recently begun to discuss their relevance. Although the recommendations of NCCAs are variously implemented, acknowledgement of their wider and deeper impacts is also emerging, alongside proposals for more systematic assessments of their long-term effects. We reflect on future prospects for NCCAs in relation to political institutions, policy processes and wider society.
Kelley, Douglas I.; Burton, Chantelle; Giuseppe, Francesca Di; Jones, Matthew W.; Barbosa, Maria L. F.; Brambleby, Esther; McNorton, Joe R.; Liu, Zhongwei; Bradley, Anna S. I.; Blackford, Katie; Burke, Eleanor; Ciavarella, Andrew; Tomaso, Enza Di; Eden, Jonathan; Ferreira, Igor José M.; Fiedler, Lukas; Hartley, Andrew J.; Keeping, Theodore R.; Lampe, Seppe; Lombardi, Anna; Mataveli, Guilherme; Qu, Yuquan; Silva, Patrícia S.; Spuler, Fiona R.; Steinmann, Carmen B.; Torres-Vázquez, Miguel Ángel; Veiga, Renata; Wees, Dave; Wessel, Jakob B.; Wright, Emily; Bilbao, Bibiana; Bourbonnais, Mathieu; Gao, Cong; Bella, Carlos M. Di; Dintwe, Kebonye; Donovan, Victoria M.; Harris, Sarah; Kukavskaya, Elena A.; N’Dri, Aya Brigitte; Santín, Cristina; Selaya, Galia; Sjöström, Johan; Abatzoglou, John T.; Andela, Niels; Carmenta, Rachel; Chuvieco, Emilio; Giglio, Louis; Hamilton, Douglas S.; Hantson, Stijn; Meier, Sarah; Parrington, Mark; Sadegh, Mojtaba; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Sedano, Fernando; Turco, Marco; Werf, Guido R.; Veraverbeke, Sander; Anderson, Liana O.; Clarke, Hamish; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Kolden, Crystal A.
State of Wildfires 2024–2025 Journal Article
In: Earth System Science Data, vol. 17, no. 10, pp. 5377–5488, 2025, ISSN: 1866-3508.
@article{66f707419fe546cfbd006d55240aac7e,
title = {State of Wildfires 2024–2025},
author = {Douglas I. Kelley and Chantelle Burton and Francesca Di Giuseppe and Matthew W. Jones and Maria L. F. Barbosa and Esther Brambleby and Joe R. McNorton and Zhongwei Liu and Anna S. I. Bradley and Katie Blackford and Eleanor Burke and Andrew Ciavarella and Enza Di Tomaso and Jonathan Eden and Igor José M. Ferreira and Lukas Fiedler and Andrew J. Hartley and Theodore R. Keeping and Seppe Lampe and Anna Lombardi and Guilherme Mataveli and Yuquan Qu and Patrícia S. Silva and Fiona R. Spuler and Carmen B. Steinmann and Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez and Renata Veiga and Dave Wees and Jakob B. Wessel and Emily Wright and Bibiana Bilbao and Mathieu Bourbonnais and Cong Gao and Carlos M. Di Bella and Kebonye Dintwe and Victoria M. Donovan and Sarah Harris and Elena A. Kukavskaya and Aya Brigitte N’Dri and Cristina Santín and Galia Selaya and Johan Sjöström and John T. Abatzoglou and Niels Andela and Rachel Carmenta and Emilio Chuvieco and Louis Giglio and Douglas S. Hamilton and Stijn Hantson and Sarah Meier and Mark Parrington and Mojtaba Sadegh and Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz and Fernando Sedano and Marco Turco and Guido R. Werf and Sander Veraverbeke and Liana O. Anderson and Hamish Clarke and Paulo M. Fernandes and Crystal A. Kolden},
doi = {10.5194/essd-17-5377-2025},
issn = {1866-3508},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-16},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
volume = {17},
number = {10},
pages = {5377–5488},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
abstract = {Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires globally, yet our understanding of these high-impact events remains uneven and shaped by media attention and regional research biases. The State of Wildfires project systematically tracks global and regional fire activity of each annual fire season, analyses the causes of prominent extreme wildfire events, and projects the likelihood of similar events occurring in future climate scenarios. This, its second annual report, covers the March 2024 to February 2025 fire season. During the 2024–2025 fire season, fire-related carbon (C) emissions totalled 2.2 Pg C, 9 % above average and the sixth highest on record since 2003, despite below-average global burned area (BA). Extreme fire seasons in South America’s rainforests, dry forests, and wetlands and in Canada’s boreal forests pushed up the global C emissions total. Fire C emissions were over 4 times above average in Bolivia, 3 times above average in Canada, and ∼ 50 % above average in Brazil and Venezuela. Wildfires in 2024–2025 caused 100 fatalities in Nepal, 34 in South Africa, and 31 in Los Angeles, with additional fatalities reported in Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, Portugal, and Türkiye. The Eaton and Palisades fires in Southern California caused 150 000 evacuations and USD 140 billion in damages. Communities in Brazil, Bolivia, Southern California, and northern India were exposed to fine particulate matter at concentrations 13–60 times WHO’s daily air quality standards. We evaluated the causes and predictability of four extreme wildfire episodes from the 2024–2025 fire season, including in Northeast Amazonia (January–March 2024), the Pantanal–Chiquitano border regions of Brazil and Bolivia (August–September 2024), Southern California (January 2025), and the Congo Basin (July–August 2024). Anomalous weather created conditions for these regional extremes, while fuel availability and human ignitions shaped spatial patterns and temporal fire dynamics. In the three tropical regions, prolonged drought was the dominant fire enabler, whereas in California, extreme heat, wind, and antecedent fuel build-up were compounding enablers. Our attribution analyses show that climate change made extreme fire weather in Northeast Amazonia 30–70 times more likely, increasing BA roughly 4-fold compared to a scenario without climate change. In the Pantanal–Chiquitano, fire weather was 4–5 times more likely, with 35-fold increases in BA. Meanwhile, our analyses suggest that BA was 25 times higher in Southern California due to climate change. The Congo Basin’s fire weather was 3–8 times more likely with climate change, with a 2.7-fold increase in BA. Socioeconomic changes since the pre-industrial period, including land-use change, also likely increased BA in Northeast Amazonia. Our models project that events on the scale of 2024–2025 will become up to 57 %, 34 %, and 50 % more frequent than in the modern era in Northeast Amazonia, the Pantanal–Chiquitano, and the Congo Basin, respectively, under a medium–high scenario (SSP370) by 2100. Climate action can limit the added risk, with frequency increases held to below 15 % in all three regions under a strong mitigation scenario (SSP126). In Southern California, the future trajectory of extreme fire likelihood remains highly uncertain due to poorly constrained climate–vegetation–fire interactions influencing fuel moisture, though our models suggest that risk may decline in future. This annual report from the State of Wildfires project integrates and advances cutting-edge fire observations and modelling with regional expertise to track changing global wildfire hazard, guiding policy and practice towards improved preparedness, mitigation, adaptation, and societal benefit. Thirteen new datasets and model codebases presented in this work are available from the State of Wildfires Project’s Zenodo community, including updated annual statistics on wildfire extent (Jones et al., 2025; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15525674), outputs from modelling of fire causality using PoF model (Di Giuseppe, 2025; https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.8570224.v1) and codebase for the extreme event attribution/projections model, ConFLAME (Barbosa et al., 2025a, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16790787).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires globally, yet our understanding of these high-impact events remains uneven and shaped by media attention and regional research biases. The State of Wildfires project systematically tracks global and regional fire activity of each annual fire season, analyses the causes of prominent extreme wildfire events, and projects the likelihood of similar events occurring in future climate scenarios. This, its second annual report, covers the March 2024 to February 2025 fire season. During the 2024–2025 fire season, fire-related carbon (C) emissions totalled 2.2 Pg C, 9 % above average and the sixth highest on record since 2003, despite below-average global burned area (BA). Extreme fire seasons in South America’s rainforests, dry forests, and wetlands and in Canada’s boreal forests pushed up the global C emissions total. Fire C emissions were over 4 times above average in Bolivia, 3 times above average in Canada, and ∼ 50 % above average in Brazil and Venezuela. Wildfires in 2024–2025 caused 100 fatalities in Nepal, 34 in South Africa, and 31 in Los Angeles, with additional fatalities reported in Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, Portugal, and Türkiye. The Eaton and Palisades fires in Southern California caused 150 000 evacuations and USD 140 billion in damages. Communities in Brazil, Bolivia, Southern California, and northern India were exposed to fine particulate matter at concentrations 13–60 times WHO’s daily air quality standards. We evaluated the causes and predictability of four extreme wildfire episodes from the 2024–2025 fire season, including in Northeast Amazonia (January–March 2024), the Pantanal–Chiquitano border regions of Brazil and Bolivia (August–September 2024), Southern California (January 2025), and the Congo Basin (July–August 2024). Anomalous weather created conditions for these regional extremes, while fuel availability and human ignitions shaped spatial patterns and temporal fire dynamics. In the three tropical regions, prolonged drought was the dominant fire enabler, whereas in California, extreme heat, wind, and antecedent fuel build-up were compounding enablers. Our attribution analyses show that climate change made extreme fire weather in Northeast Amazonia 30–70 times more likely, increasing BA roughly 4-fold compared to a scenario without climate change. In the Pantanal–Chiquitano, fire weather was 4–5 times more likely, with 35-fold increases in BA. Meanwhile, our analyses suggest that BA was 25 times higher in Southern California due to climate change. The Congo Basin’s fire weather was 3–8 times more likely with climate change, with a 2.7-fold increase in BA. Socioeconomic changes since the pre-industrial period, including land-use change, also likely increased BA in Northeast Amazonia. Our models project that events on the scale of 2024–2025 will become up to 57 %, 34 %, and 50 % more frequent than in the modern era in Northeast Amazonia, the Pantanal–Chiquitano, and the Congo Basin, respectively, under a medium–high scenario (SSP370) by 2100. Climate action can limit the added risk, with frequency increases held to below 15 % in all three regions under a strong mitigation scenario (SSP126). In Southern California, the future trajectory of extreme fire likelihood remains highly uncertain due to poorly constrained climate–vegetation–fire interactions influencing fuel moisture, though our models suggest that risk may decline in future. This annual report from the State of Wildfires project integrates and advances cutting-edge fire observations and modelling with regional expertise to track changing global wildfire hazard, guiding policy and practice towards improved preparedness, mitigation, adaptation, and societal benefit. Thirteen new datasets and model codebases presented in this work are available from the State of Wildfires Project’s Zenodo community, including updated annual statistics on wildfire extent (Jones et al., 2025; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15525674), outputs from modelling of fire causality using PoF model (Di Giuseppe, 2025; https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.8570224.v1) and codebase for the extreme event attribution/projections model, ConFLAME (Barbosa et al., 2025a, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16790787).
