Tyndall Centre Journal Articles
2025
Breitenstein, Sofia; Kenny, John; Larner, Jac; Stiers, Dieter; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
The Authentic A**hole: Candidate consistency, causality, and the vote Journal Article
In: Polity, vol. 57, no. 2, pp. 240–252, 2025, ISSN: 0032-3497.
@article{1a006bb7c72845a1be660755ddcad03d,
title = {The Authentic A**hole: Candidate consistency, causality, and the vote},
author = {Sofia Breitenstein and John Kenny and Jac Larner and Dieter Stiers and Michael S. Lewis-Beck},
doi = {10.1086/734478},
issn = {0032-3497},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-04-01},
journal = {Polity},
volume = {57},
number = {2},
pages = {240–252},
publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
abstract = {Despite politicians’ authenticity being increasingly invoked in public discourse to explain their electoral fortunes, empirical research on the trait in electoral studies remains nascent. Here we advance our knowledge through a vignette survey experiment carried out on a national British sample. Firstly, we demonstrate that respondents are more likely to perceive a hypothetical politician as authentic when that politician resists political pressure in order to maintain a consistency between their stated policy positions and their political actions. This is the case whether respondents agree with their policy position or not. We also show that a candidate being perceived as authentic carries electoral benefits for them. Furthermore, consistency between a politician’s policy position and their actions enhances citizens’ perception of authenticity, consequently increasing the likelihood that they will vote for that politician. This study contributes to understanding authenticity in politics, offering valuable insights into the causal mechanisms of its electoral implications.},
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Despite politicians’ authenticity being increasingly invoked in public discourse to explain their electoral fortunes, empirical research on the trait in electoral studies remains nascent. Here we advance our knowledge through a vignette survey experiment carried out on a national British sample. Firstly, we demonstrate that respondents are more likely to perceive a hypothetical politician as authentic when that politician resists political pressure in order to maintain a consistency between their stated policy positions and their political actions. This is the case whether respondents agree with their policy position or not. We also show that a candidate being perceived as authentic carries electoral benefits for them. Furthermore, consistency between a politician’s policy position and their actions enhances citizens’ perception of authenticity, consequently increasing the likelihood that they will vote for that politician. This study contributes to understanding authenticity in politics, offering valuable insights into the causal mechanisms of its electoral implications.
Kenny, John; Breitenstein, Sofia; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
Political authenticity: Cases and consequences Journal Article
In: Polity, vol. 57, no. 2, pp. 189–197, 2025, ISSN: 0032-3497.
@article{6a0afe57590d43419315f7b1b3e7ce13,
title = {Political authenticity: Cases and consequences},
author = {John Kenny and Sofia Breitenstein and Michael S. Lewis-Beck},
doi = {10.1086/734784},
issn = {0032-3497},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-04-01},
journal = {Polity},
volume = {57},
number = {2},
pages = {189–197},
publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
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Kenny, John; Geese, Lucas
An authenticity expectations gap? A comparison of publics' and Members of Parliament's views on politicians being true to themselves Journal Article
In: Polity, vol. 57, no. 2, pp. 350–369, 2025, ISSN: 0032-3497, (The funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601).).
@article{d9a28d723c1845c38f6cc05d29538343,
title = {An authenticity expectations gap? A comparison of publics' and Members of Parliament's views on politicians being true to themselves},
author = {John Kenny and Lucas Geese},
doi = {10.1086/734680},
issn = {0032-3497},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-04-01},
journal = {Polity},
volume = {57},
number = {2},
pages = {350–369},
publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
abstract = {Authentic representatives may offer voters an antidote to the perceived failings of the stereotypical out-of-touch “fake” politician. While gaining more scholarly attention, the nascent literature rarely considers both publics’ and politicians’ views simultaneously. Here, we draw on rare public opinion and Member of Parliament (MPs) surveys fielded in 2023 in Britain and Germany. One hundred UK MPs and seventy-nine German MPs answered the extent to which they will act according to their strongly held views when these come into conflict with those of (1) their voters, (2) their party, or (3) the consensus of independent experts. Publics in these countries were asked for each of these situations the extent to which MPs should act according to their own views. We thus measure preferences for a central feature of an authentic politician in being consistent in representing their core beliefs in their behaviors. We find that German MPs are much more willing compared to UK MPs to state they would follow their own views when faced with a conflict with their voters, and at higher levels in comparison to situations when they are faced with a conflict with their party. Yet publics in both countries have a greater wish on average for an MP to be true to themselves when their views conflict with their party line than when they conflict with their voters. From this emerges expectation gaps between what MPs prioritize, and the principles that publics would like to see them emphasize.},
note = {The funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601).},
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Authentic representatives may offer voters an antidote to the perceived failings of the stereotypical out-of-touch “fake” politician. While gaining more scholarly attention, the nascent literature rarely considers both publics’ and politicians’ views simultaneously. Here, we draw on rare public opinion and Member of Parliament (MPs) surveys fielded in 2023 in Britain and Germany. One hundred UK MPs and seventy-nine German MPs answered the extent to which they will act according to their strongly held views when these come into conflict with those of (1) their voters, (2) their party, or (3) the consensus of independent experts. Publics in these countries were asked for each of these situations the extent to which MPs should act according to their own views. We thus measure preferences for a central feature of an authentic politician in being consistent in representing their core beliefs in their behaviors. We find that German MPs are much more willing compared to UK MPs to state they would follow their own views when faced with a conflict with their voters, and at higher levels in comparison to situations when they are faced with a conflict with their party. Yet publics in both countries have a greater wish on average for an MP to be true to themselves when their views conflict with their party line than when they conflict with their voters. From this emerges expectation gaps between what MPs prioritize, and the principles that publics would like to see them emphasize.
Najafi-Tavani, Zhaleh; Zantidou, Eleni; Leonidou, Constantinos N.; Zeriti, Athina
Business model innovation and export performance Journal Article
In: Journal of International Business Studies, vol. 56, pp. 360–382, 2025, ISSN: 0047-2506, (Funding information: Open access funding provided by the Cyprus Libraries Consortium (CLC).).
@article{b6a0b37449be4637958df0ea93a73bbf,
title = {Business model innovation and export performance},
author = {Zhaleh Najafi-Tavani and Eleni Zantidou and Constantinos N. Leonidou and Athina Zeriti},
doi = {10.1057/s41267-023-00645-8},
issn = {0047-2506},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-04-01},
journal = {Journal of International Business Studies},
volume = {56},
pages = {360–382},
publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.},
abstract = {Although business model innovation (BMI) is generally beneficial for firms, few studies have investigated whether and under what conditions BMI benefits materialize in foreign markets. This research applies two complementary theoretical perspectives to understand the role of BMI in helping firms achieve enhanced performance in export markets. We argue that the effectiveness of the two types of BMI (novelty- and efficiency-centered) is influenced by factors such as relational embeddedness, international experience, and competitive intensity. Using primary data from 263 managers and CEOs from 194 exporting firms, we find that novelty- and efficiency-centered BMI boosts performance by strengthening exporters’ differentiation and cost advantages, respectively. We also show that for firms operating in mildly competitive environments and in a narrow set of countries, novelty-centered BMI is more likely to lead to a differentiation advantage. At the same time, exporters can attain greater cost advantages from efficiency-centered BMI if they have established strong relationships with their export customers/buyers and have been internationally active for a long time. Managers might need to pay close attention to the level of competition, as it can have both positive and negative implications for advantage-driven export performance outcomes.},
note = {Funding information: Open access funding provided by the Cyprus Libraries Consortium (CLC).},
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pubstate = {published},
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Although business model innovation (BMI) is generally beneficial for firms, few studies have investigated whether and under what conditions BMI benefits materialize in foreign markets. This research applies two complementary theoretical perspectives to understand the role of BMI in helping firms achieve enhanced performance in export markets. We argue that the effectiveness of the two types of BMI (novelty- and efficiency-centered) is influenced by factors such as relational embeddedness, international experience, and competitive intensity. Using primary data from 263 managers and CEOs from 194 exporting firms, we find that novelty- and efficiency-centered BMI boosts performance by strengthening exporters’ differentiation and cost advantages, respectively. We also show that for firms operating in mildly competitive environments and in a narrow set of countries, novelty-centered BMI is more likely to lead to a differentiation advantage. At the same time, exporters can attain greater cost advantages from efficiency-centered BMI if they have established strong relationships with their export customers/buyers and have been internationally active for a long time. Managers might need to pay close attention to the level of competition, as it can have both positive and negative implications for advantage-driven export performance outcomes.
Ballesteros, Caridad; Lincke, Daniel; Nicholls, Robert J.; Heslop, Jack; Hinkel, Jochen; Malagón-Santos, Victor; Slangen, Aimée B. A.
Migration, land loss and costs to 2100 due to coastal flooding under the IPCC AR6 sea-level rise scenarios and plausible adaptation choices Journal Article
In: Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 12, 2025, ISSN: 2296-7745, (Data availability statement: The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/Supplementary Material. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author. Funding information: This publication was supported by PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 155.).
@article{27c4aa5709724ba8bd729e17e00aa4e4,
title = {Migration, land loss and costs to 2100 due to coastal flooding under the IPCC AR6 sea-level rise scenarios and plausible adaptation choices},
author = {Caridad Ballesteros and Daniel Lincke and Robert J. Nicholls and Jack Heslop and Jochen Hinkel and Victor Malagón-Santos and Aimée B. A. Slangen},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2025.1505633},
issn = {2296-7745},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-03-27},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
volume = {12},
publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},
abstract = {Sea-level rise (SLR) through the 21 st century and beyond is inevitable, threatening coastal areas and their inhabitants unless there is appropriate adaptation. We investigate coastal flooding to 2100 under the full range of IPCC AR6 (2021) SLR scenarios assuming plausible adaptation. The adaptation chooses the most economically robust adaptation option, protection or retreat. People living in unprotected coastal areas that are inundated frequently (below 1-in-1 year flood) are assumed to migrate and the land is considered lost. Globally, from across the range of SLR and related socioeconomic scenarios, we estimate between 4 million and 72 million people could migrate over the 21 st century, and a net land loss in the range of 2,800 km 2 to 490,000 km 2 . India and Vietnam consistently show the highest absolute migration, while Small Island Developing States are the most affected when considering relative migration and land loss. Protection is the most robust adaptation option under all scenarios for 2.8% of the global coastline, but this protects 78% of global population and 91% of assets in coastal areas. Climate stabilisation (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) does not avoid all coastal impacts and costs as sea levels still rise albeit more slowly. The impacts and costs are also sensitive to the socio-economic scenario: SSP3-7.0 experiences higher migration than SSP5-8.5 despite lower SLR, reflecting the larger population and lower GDP. Our findings can inform national and intergovernmental agencies and organizations on the magnitude of SLR impacts and costs and guide assessments of adaptation policies and strategies.},
note = {Data availability statement: The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/Supplementary Material. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author. Funding information: This publication was supported by PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 155.},
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Sea-level rise (SLR) through the 21 st century and beyond is inevitable, threatening coastal areas and their inhabitants unless there is appropriate adaptation. We investigate coastal flooding to 2100 under the full range of IPCC AR6 (2021) SLR scenarios assuming plausible adaptation. The adaptation chooses the most economically robust adaptation option, protection or retreat. People living in unprotected coastal areas that are inundated frequently (below 1-in-1 year flood) are assumed to migrate and the land is considered lost. Globally, from across the range of SLR and related socioeconomic scenarios, we estimate between 4 million and 72 million people could migrate over the 21 st century, and a net land loss in the range of 2,800 km 2 to 490,000 km 2 . India and Vietnam consistently show the highest absolute migration, while Small Island Developing States are the most affected when considering relative migration and land loss. Protection is the most robust adaptation option under all scenarios for 2.8% of the global coastline, but this protects 78% of global population and 91% of assets in coastal areas. Climate stabilisation (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) does not avoid all coastal impacts and costs as sea levels still rise albeit more slowly. The impacts and costs are also sensitive to the socio-economic scenario: SSP3-7.0 experiences higher migration than SSP5-8.5 despite lower SLR, reflecting the larger population and lower GDP. Our findings can inform national and intergovernmental agencies and organizations on the magnitude of SLR impacts and costs and guide assessments of adaptation policies and strategies.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Kenny, John; Leiter, Debra; Murr, Andreas Erwin; Ogili, Onyinye B.; Stegmaier, Mary; Tien, Charles
Election forecasting: Political economy models Journal Article
In: International Journal of Forecasting, 2025, ISSN: 0169-2070.
@article{0128a46e7af54b12a1dd218717da8d66,
title = {Election forecasting: Political economy models},
author = {Michael S. Lewis-Beck and John Kenny and Debra Leiter and Andreas Erwin Murr and Onyinye B. Ogili and Mary Stegmaier and Charles Tien},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.02.006},
issn = {0169-2070},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-03-18},
journal = {International Journal of Forecasting},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely known approach; however, the lesser-known political economy models take a different scientific tack, relying on regression analysis and voting theory, particularly the force of “fundamentals.” We begin our discussion with two advanced industrial democracies, the US and UK. We then examine two less frequently forecasted cases, Mexico and Ghana, to highlight the potential for political-economic forecasting and the challenges faced. In evaluating the performance of political economy models, we argue for their accuracy but do not neglect lead time, parsimony, and transparency. Furthermore, we suggest how the political economic approach can be adapted to the changing landscape that democratic electorates face.},
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We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely known approach; however, the lesser-known political economy models take a different scientific tack, relying on regression analysis and voting theory, particularly the force of “fundamentals.” We begin our discussion with two advanced industrial democracies, the US and UK. We then examine two less frequently forecasted cases, Mexico and Ghana, to highlight the potential for political-economic forecasting and the challenges faced. In evaluating the performance of political economy models, we argue for their accuracy but do not neglect lead time, parsimony, and transparency. Furthermore, we suggest how the political economic approach can be adapted to the changing landscape that democratic electorates face.
Menor, I. Oliveras; Prat-Guitart, N.; l. Spadoni, G.; Hsu, A.; Fernandes, P. M.; Puig-Gironès, R.; Ascoli, D.; Bilbao, B. A.; Bacciu, V.; Brotons, L.; Carmenta, R.; de-Miguel, S.; Gonçalves, L. G.; Humphrey, G.; Ibarnegaray, V.; Jones, M. W.; Machado, M. S.; Millán, A.; Falleiro, R. Morais; Mouillot, F.; Pinto, C.; Pons, P.; Regos, A.; de Oliveira, M. Senra; Harrison, S. P.; Pascual, D. Armenteras
Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes Journal Article
In: Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 6, 2025, ISSN: 2662-4435, (Data availability statement: Data sharing not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study. Funding information: Authors are grateful to the FIRE-ADAPT project (EU grant HORIZON-MSCA-2021-SE-01086416) for support and to the FIRE-ADAPT Consortium for general discussion of ideas during study hubs and exchange secondments. I.O.M. and M.S.M. were supported by NERC grant NE/W00058X/1. P.M.F. was supported by National Funds from FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under project UIDB/04033/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04033/2020). L.B. was supported by the wildE Horizon Europe (GAP- 101081251) project. B.A.B. was funded by the LANDMARC project (European Union’s Horizon 2020 grant agreement No 869367). AR.was supported by the EU-funded ‘Firelogue’ project (Grant agreement ID: 101036534) and a ‘Ramón y Cajal’ fellowship program of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (RYC2022-036822-I). S.dM. was supported by a Serra Húnter fellowship provided by the Government of Catalonia (Generalitat de Catalunya). G.J.H. was supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Ottawa, Canada. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of IDRC or its Board of Governors.M.W.J. was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC; NE/V01417X/1). D.A.P. was supported by the Colombia Ministry of Science and the General System of Royalties project BPIN 2020000100456.).
@article{be8dd018a5204af98454403bd50f6a00,
title = {Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes},
author = {I. Oliveras Menor and N. Prat-Guitart and G. l. Spadoni and A. Hsu and P. M. Fernandes and R. Puig-Gironès and D. Ascoli and B. A. Bilbao and V. Bacciu and L. Brotons and R. Carmenta and S. de-Miguel and L. G. Gonçalves and G. Humphrey and V. Ibarnegaray and M. W. Jones and M. S. Machado and A. Millán and R. Morais Falleiro and F. Mouillot and C. Pinto and P. Pons and A. Regos and M. Senra de Oliveira and S. P. Harrison and D. Armenteras Pascual},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9},
issn = {2662-4435},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-03-15},
journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
volume = {6},
publisher = {Nature Research},
abstract = {Altered fire regimes are a global challenge, increasingly exacerbated by climate change, which modifies fire weather and prolongs fire seasons. These changing conditions heighten the vulnerability of ecosystems and human populations to the impacts of wildfires on the environment, society, and the economy. The rapid pace of these changes exposes significant gaps in knowledge, tools, technology, and governance structures needed to adopt informed, holistic approaches to fire management that address both current and future challenges. Integrated Fire Management is an approach that combines fire prevention, response, and recovery while integrating ecological, socio-economic, and cultural factors into management strategies. However, Integrated Fire Management remains highly context-dependent, encompassing a wide array of fire management practices with varying degrees of ecological and societal integration. This review explores Integrated Fire Management as both an adaptation and mitigation strategy for altered fire regimes. It provides an overview of the progress and challenges associated with implementing Integrated Fire Management across different regions worldwide. The review also proposes five core objectives and outlines a roadmap of incremental steps for advancing Integrated Fire Management as a strategy to adapt to ongoing and future changes in fire regimes, thereby maximizing its potential to benefit both people and nature.},
note = {Data availability statement: Data sharing not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study. Funding information: Authors are grateful to the FIRE-ADAPT project (EU grant HORIZON-MSCA-2021-SE-01086416) for support and to the FIRE-ADAPT Consortium for general discussion of ideas during study hubs and exchange secondments. I.O.M. and M.S.M. were supported by NERC grant NE/W00058X/1. P.M.F. was supported by National Funds from FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under project UIDB/04033/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04033/2020). L.B. was supported by the wildE Horizon Europe (GAP- 101081251) project. B.A.B. was funded by the LANDMARC project (European Union’s Horizon 2020 grant agreement No 869367). AR.was supported by the EU-funded ‘Firelogue’ project (Grant agreement ID: 101036534) and a ‘Ramón y Cajal’ fellowship program of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (RYC2022-036822-I). S.dM. was supported by a Serra Húnter fellowship provided by the Government of Catalonia (Generalitat de Catalunya). G.J.H. was supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Ottawa, Canada. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of IDRC or its Board of Governors.M.W.J. was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC; NE/V01417X/1). D.A.P. was supported by the Colombia Ministry of Science and the General System of Royalties project BPIN 2020000100456.},
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Altered fire regimes are a global challenge, increasingly exacerbated by climate change, which modifies fire weather and prolongs fire seasons. These changing conditions heighten the vulnerability of ecosystems and human populations to the impacts of wildfires on the environment, society, and the economy. The rapid pace of these changes exposes significant gaps in knowledge, tools, technology, and governance structures needed to adopt informed, holistic approaches to fire management that address both current and future challenges. Integrated Fire Management is an approach that combines fire prevention, response, and recovery while integrating ecological, socio-economic, and cultural factors into management strategies. However, Integrated Fire Management remains highly context-dependent, encompassing a wide array of fire management practices with varying degrees of ecological and societal integration. This review explores Integrated Fire Management as both an adaptation and mitigation strategy for altered fire regimes. It provides an overview of the progress and challenges associated with implementing Integrated Fire Management across different regions worldwide. The review also proposes five core objectives and outlines a roadmap of incremental steps for advancing Integrated Fire Management as a strategy to adapt to ongoing and future changes in fire regimes, thereby maximizing its potential to benefit both people and nature.
Bullock, Simon; Larkin, Alice; Köhler, Jonathan
Beyond fuel: the case for a wider perspective on shipping and climate change Journal Article
In: Climate Policy, pp. 1–9, 2025, ISSN: 1469-3062.
@article{35f380ec809d44b99e6e8acc685aed61,
title = {Beyond fuel: the case for a wider perspective on shipping and climate change},
author = {Simon Bullock and Alice Larkin and Jonathan Köhler},
doi = {10.1080/14693062.2024.2447474},
issn = {1469-3062},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-03-13},
journal = {Climate Policy},
pages = {1–9},
publisher = {Taylor & Francis},
abstract = {In July 2023, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) set a new climate change strategy for the international shipping sector. Critically, this strategy now includes “checkpoint” and ‘strive’ greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2040, en route to zero emissions by around 2050. Recent analysis highlights that the IMO’s ‘strive’ targets are essential staging posts and the minimum level of ambition for the sector to play its part in meeting the Paris Climate goals. However, progress towards meeting the IMO’s 2030 and 2040 goals is being stymied by an overly dominant narrative discourse focused on fuels and longer term (2050) targets: this focus is at odds with the new short-term targets, due to the long lead time for deployment of green fuels at scale, particularly given the slow turn-over of shipping fleets. This article sets out why a change in emphasis towards short-term energy and emission reduction is critical if the sector is to play its part in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. It sets out why this is a no-regrets option, complementing necessary ongoing work on alternative fuels. Recommendations for realising this shift in emphasis include aligning the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) with the IMO’s new ’strive’ target, shifting the focus of organisational strategies towards reducing cumulative emissions, and rethinking ship design to optimise for ultra-efficiency, wind-assist propulsion and battery power.},
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In July 2023, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) set a new climate change strategy for the international shipping sector. Critically, this strategy now includes “checkpoint” and ‘strive’ greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2040, en route to zero emissions by around 2050. Recent analysis highlights that the IMO’s ‘strive’ targets are essential staging posts and the minimum level of ambition for the sector to play its part in meeting the Paris Climate goals. However, progress towards meeting the IMO’s 2030 and 2040 goals is being stymied by an overly dominant narrative discourse focused on fuels and longer term (2050) targets: this focus is at odds with the new short-term targets, due to the long lead time for deployment of green fuels at scale, particularly given the slow turn-over of shipping fleets. This article sets out why a change in emphasis towards short-term energy and emission reduction is critical if the sector is to play its part in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. It sets out why this is a no-regrets option, complementing necessary ongoing work on alternative fuels. Recommendations for realising this shift in emphasis include aligning the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) with the IMO’s new ’strive’ target, shifting the focus of organisational strategies towards reducing cumulative emissions, and rethinking ship design to optimise for ultra-efficiency, wind-assist propulsion and battery power.
Schmid, Alejandro Gallego; Vásquez-Ibarra, Leonardo; Guerrero, Ana Belén; Henninger, Claudia; Rebolledo-Leiva, Ricardo
In: Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 486, 2025, ISSN: 0959-6526.
@article{623c9df868cd481ab0e53bc643f21488,
title = {Circular economy in a recently transitioned high-income country in Latin America and the Caribbean: Barriers, drivers, strengths, opportunities, key stakeholders and priorities in Chile},
author = {Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Leonardo Vásquez-Ibarra and Ana Belén Guerrero and Claudia Henninger and Ricardo Rebolledo-Leiva},
doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.144429},
issn = {0959-6526},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-03-13},
journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},
volume = {486},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {This study explores Chile's efforts to adopt a circular economy (CE) to enhance sustainability and economic resilience as a newly high-income country in Latin America and the Caribbean. Conducting 22 semi-structured interviews, the research identifies barriers, drivers, strengths, opportunities, key stakeholders, and priorities for transitioning to a CE. Through qualitative analysis, the study examines Chile's CE landscape from cultural, political, technological, and economic perspectives, uncovering significant isomorphic pressures from international norms and sector spillovers. Findings indicate that despite proactive initiatives like the Roadmap for Circular Chile, several challenges persist. These include cultural resistance, limited public awareness and professional training, increased consumerism, inadequate regulatory enforcement, insufficient data and technological infrastructure outside metropolitan areas, an economy still reliant on resource extraction, and a lack of financial support from both public and private sectors. Conversely, Chile's robust regulatory framework, commitment to international environmental agreements, and growing sustainability interest among younger populations drive CE progress. Additionally, traditional knowledge, local entrepreneurship, and the Extended Producer Responsibility law support localised circular models. Opportunities are particularly significant in the mining, agriculture, and tourism sectors, where CE principles can foster innovation, economic growth, and sustainable resource management. The study emphasises the essential roles of government agencies, institutions, and businesses as key stakeholders. It highlights the need to enhance public awareness, reform educational systems to include comprehensive environmental education, and train a skilled workforce to support the CE transition. By addressing these areas, Chile can effectively advance its circular economy initiatives and achieve greater sustainability and economic resilience.},
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This study explores Chile's efforts to adopt a circular economy (CE) to enhance sustainability and economic resilience as a newly high-income country in Latin America and the Caribbean. Conducting 22 semi-structured interviews, the research identifies barriers, drivers, strengths, opportunities, key stakeholders, and priorities for transitioning to a CE. Through qualitative analysis, the study examines Chile's CE landscape from cultural, political, technological, and economic perspectives, uncovering significant isomorphic pressures from international norms and sector spillovers. Findings indicate that despite proactive initiatives like the Roadmap for Circular Chile, several challenges persist. These include cultural resistance, limited public awareness and professional training, increased consumerism, inadequate regulatory enforcement, insufficient data and technological infrastructure outside metropolitan areas, an economy still reliant on resource extraction, and a lack of financial support from both public and private sectors. Conversely, Chile's robust regulatory framework, commitment to international environmental agreements, and growing sustainability interest among younger populations drive CE progress. Additionally, traditional knowledge, local entrepreneurship, and the Extended Producer Responsibility law support localised circular models. Opportunities are particularly significant in the mining, agriculture, and tourism sectors, where CE principles can foster innovation, economic growth, and sustainable resource management. The study emphasises the essential roles of government agencies, institutions, and businesses as key stakeholders. It highlights the need to enhance public awareness, reform educational systems to include comprehensive environmental education, and train a skilled workforce to support the CE transition. By addressing these areas, Chile can effectively advance its circular economy initiatives and achieve greater sustainability and economic resilience.
Douglas, Hunter C.; Revell, Laura E.; Joshi, Manoj; King, Andrew; Harrington, Luke J.; Frame, David J.
Drivers of regional variation in the de-emergence of climate change under negative emissions Journal Article
In: Journal of Climate, vol. 38, no. 5, pp. 1333–1350, 2025, ISSN: 0894-8755, (Data availability statement: The data and code that support the findings of this study will be available at: https://github.com/hdouglas/de-emergence. CMIP6 simulation results are available from: https://esgfnode.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/ Funding information: H. C. D., L. E. R., L. J. H., and D. J. F. acknowledge funding from the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment via the Endeavour Fund Whakahura programme (Grant ID: RTVU1906). A. D. K. acknowledges the Australian Government National Environmental Science Program.).
@article{a9a41f80765c4bd9ad377fa7bd81beb3,
title = {Drivers of regional variation in the de-emergence of climate change under negative emissions},
author = {Hunter C. Douglas and Laura E. Revell and Manoj Joshi and Andrew King and Luke J. Harrington and David J. Frame},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0257.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-03-01},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {38},
number = {5},
pages = {1333–1350},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
abstract = {A central question of climate change impact assessments is identifying when the signal of change emerges from the noise of natural variability, though to date, this framework has been almost exclusively applied under warming conditions. In this work, we investigate the phenomenon of de-emergence, where temperatures rise beyond a given threshold and subsequently drop back below that threshold as forcing reverses. Large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR), also referred to as negative emissions, has been proposed to lower global average temperatures and to mitigate damage to the Earth system, though the regional effects of this have been understudied to date. Here, we analyze the results of eight Earth system models (ESMs) that participated in the CDR Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP). Decades after CO 2 concentrations return to preindustrial levels following a gradual quadrupling, the only regions that most models agree to return to preindustrial temperatures are an area across northwestern Eurasia and a small area off the coast of West Antarctica. Around half of the models project de-emergence for areas of North America and East Asia. We investigate potential causes for these patterns and find that the land areas that cool more also exhibit enhanced latent heat flux, net carbon uptake, and precipitation, implying enhanced evapotranspiration. The region off West Antarctica appears to experience a cooling influence from changes to sea ice and meltwater. Both regions experience changes to cloud radiative effects that cause net cooling. The distribution of de-emergence patterns raises questions about the equity and fairness of overshoot scenarios.},
note = {Data availability statement: The data and code that support the findings of this study will be available at: https://github.com/hdouglas/de-emergence. CMIP6 simulation results are available from: https://esgfnode.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/ Funding information: H. C. D., L. E. R., L. J. H., and D. J. F. acknowledge funding from the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment via the Endeavour Fund Whakahura programme (Grant ID: RTVU1906). A. D. K. acknowledges the Australian Government National Environmental Science Program.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
A central question of climate change impact assessments is identifying when the signal of change emerges from the noise of natural variability, though to date, this framework has been almost exclusively applied under warming conditions. In this work, we investigate the phenomenon of de-emergence, where temperatures rise beyond a given threshold and subsequently drop back below that threshold as forcing reverses. Large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR), also referred to as negative emissions, has been proposed to lower global average temperatures and to mitigate damage to the Earth system, though the regional effects of this have been understudied to date. Here, we analyze the results of eight Earth system models (ESMs) that participated in the CDR Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP). Decades after CO 2 concentrations return to preindustrial levels following a gradual quadrupling, the only regions that most models agree to return to preindustrial temperatures are an area across northwestern Eurasia and a small area off the coast of West Antarctica. Around half of the models project de-emergence for areas of North America and East Asia. We investigate potential causes for these patterns and find that the land areas that cool more also exhibit enhanced latent heat flux, net carbon uptake, and precipitation, implying enhanced evapotranspiration. The region off West Antarctica appears to experience a cooling influence from changes to sea ice and meltwater. Both regions experience changes to cloud radiative effects that cause net cooling. The distribution of de-emergence patterns raises questions about the equity and fairness of overshoot scenarios.
Luna-Celino, Vanessa; Kainer, Karen A.; Carmenta, Rachel; Loiselle, Bette; Cuellar, Ashley
Burning perceptions that integrate wellbeing and ecosystem services to inform fire governance in the Peruvian Andes Journal Article
In: Journal of Rural Studies, vol. 116, 2025, ISSN: 0743-0167.
@article{34d6984f40884d20953c013400a97a4e,
title = {Burning perceptions that integrate wellbeing and ecosystem services to inform fire governance in the Peruvian Andes},
author = {Vanessa Luna-Celino and Karen A. Kainer and Rachel Carmenta and Bette Loiselle and Ashley Cuellar},
doi = {10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103610},
issn = {0743-0167},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-26},
journal = {Journal of Rural Studies},
volume = {116},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Fire is an essential tool enabling tropical subsistence agriculture, but can escape beyond its intended borders when not adequately controlled. Indeed this risk may be increasing under changing ecological and climatic shifts with implications for what constitutes adequate fire management. Understanding the perceptions of key actors about the role of fire and effective management is a crucial step in fire governance because it exposes views and can facilitate transparent decision-making and conflict management. Drawing on frameworks of wellbeing and ecosystem services, we conducted Q methodology with 56 fire users and managers, including subsistence-based Quechua farmers, firefighters, researchers, nonprofit staff, and government agents. Factor analysis revealed three distinct viewpoints on the role of fire, ranging from emphasizing the negative impacts of escaped fires on ecosystem services (e.g., on biodiversity and climate change impacts) to acknowledging benefits of intentional fires for rural wellbeing (e.g., that agricultural burns open new farmland or fire as the most accessible way to work the farm). We also found three viewpoints regarding fire management deemed effective: top-down fire suppression, community-based fire suppression, and community-based fire management. Integrating these diverse perspectives, actionable insights for decision making should include: legal recognition of traditional controlled burns, training programs that support volunteer community fire brigades, and integrated fire management solutions at multiple scales (community, district, regional, and national). Our analysis, grounded in the Peruvian Andes, suggests pathways for effective fire governance that can reconcile the different needs, uses, and types of fire.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Fire is an essential tool enabling tropical subsistence agriculture, but can escape beyond its intended borders when not adequately controlled. Indeed this risk may be increasing under changing ecological and climatic shifts with implications for what constitutes adequate fire management. Understanding the perceptions of key actors about the role of fire and effective management is a crucial step in fire governance because it exposes views and can facilitate transparent decision-making and conflict management. Drawing on frameworks of wellbeing and ecosystem services, we conducted Q methodology with 56 fire users and managers, including subsistence-based Quechua farmers, firefighters, researchers, nonprofit staff, and government agents. Factor analysis revealed three distinct viewpoints on the role of fire, ranging from emphasizing the negative impacts of escaped fires on ecosystem services (e.g., on biodiversity and climate change impacts) to acknowledging benefits of intentional fires for rural wellbeing (e.g., that agricultural burns open new farmland or fire as the most accessible way to work the farm). We also found three viewpoints regarding fire management deemed effective: top-down fire suppression, community-based fire suppression, and community-based fire management. Integrating these diverse perspectives, actionable insights for decision making should include: legal recognition of traditional controlled burns, training programs that support volunteer community fire brigades, and integrated fire management solutions at multiple scales (community, district, regional, and national). Our analysis, grounded in the Peruvian Andes, suggests pathways for effective fire governance that can reconcile the different needs, uses, and types of fire.
Raj, Rengalakshmi; Ravula, Padmaja; Kumari, Pratheepa; Bhanjdeo, Arundhita; Sogani, Reetu; Rao, Nitya
Male migration and the transformation of gendered agriculture work: A comparative exploration of heterogeneity across selected Indian states Journal Article
In: Gender, Place & Culture, pp. 1, 2025, ISSN: 0966-369X, (Funding information: Funding support for this study was provided by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Grant Ref: BB/P027970/1 under the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) award to Transforming India’s Green Revolution by Research and Empowerment for Sustainable food Supplies (TIGR2ESS).).
@article{f61943b087a04392a0afcf0f39d0d654,
title = {Male migration and the transformation of gendered agriculture work: A comparative exploration of heterogeneity across selected Indian states},
author = {Rengalakshmi Raj and Padmaja Ravula and Pratheepa Kumari and Arundhita Bhanjdeo and Reetu Sogani and Nitya Rao},
doi = {10.1080/0966369X.2025.2468178},
issn = {0966-369X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-25},
journal = {Gender, Place & Culture},
pages = {1},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Male migration among agriculture-dependent households has emerged as an important livelihood strategy for coping with poverty, food insecurity, climate change, and several other risks and shocks in the Global South. Emerging research on the impacts of male migration on women’s agency, especially in agricultural production and decision-making, paints a one-size-fits-all picture. This paper, through a comparative, qualitative analysis of the implications of male out-migration on gender roles and responsibilities in agriculture across four different agroecologies in India – forested, mountainous, semi-arid, and coastal – highlights the heterogeneity in women’s experiences of male migration in the Indian context. While the nature of migration and the amount and regularity of remittances shape the increase or decline in women’s work and responsibilities, factors like age, caste, class, life stage, and context also play a significant role. We note that current scholarship has given too much importance to the narrative on remittance-driven livelihoods at the cost of multiple factors that shape women’s roles, experiences, and strategic choices in migrant-sending communities. What appears critical for transformative change is state policy that facilitates and enables collective action, central to overcoming the patriarchal constraints women encounter, especially as they shift from labouring to managerial roles in farming.},
note = {Funding information: Funding support for this study was provided by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Grant Ref: BB/P027970/1 under the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) award to Transforming India’s Green Revolution by Research and Empowerment for Sustainable food Supplies (TIGR2ESS).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Male migration among agriculture-dependent households has emerged as an important livelihood strategy for coping with poverty, food insecurity, climate change, and several other risks and shocks in the Global South. Emerging research on the impacts of male migration on women’s agency, especially in agricultural production and decision-making, paints a one-size-fits-all picture. This paper, through a comparative, qualitative analysis of the implications of male out-migration on gender roles and responsibilities in agriculture across four different agroecologies in India – forested, mountainous, semi-arid, and coastal – highlights the heterogeneity in women’s experiences of male migration in the Indian context. While the nature of migration and the amount and regularity of remittances shape the increase or decline in women’s work and responsibilities, factors like age, caste, class, life stage, and context also play a significant role. We note that current scholarship has given too much importance to the narrative on remittance-driven livelihoods at the cost of multiple factors that shape women’s roles, experiences, and strategic choices in migrant-sending communities. What appears critical for transformative change is state policy that facilitates and enables collective action, central to overcoming the patriarchal constraints women encounter, especially as they shift from labouring to managerial roles in farming.
Rao, Nitya; Sathe, Reema; Grist, Natasha
Gender, intersectionality and climate smart agriculture in South Asia: A review Journal Article
In: PLoS Climate, vol. 4, no. 2, 2025, ISSN: 2767-3200.
@article{c46f7fc153c349c6bfb80e6fae315038,
title = {Gender, intersectionality and climate smart agriculture in South Asia: A review},
author = {Nitya Rao and Reema Sathe and Natasha Grist},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pclm.0000482},
issn = {2767-3200},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-25},
journal = {PLoS Climate},
volume = {4},
number = {2},
publisher = {Public Library of Science},
abstract = {Food systems-based livelihoods are precarious for many of the most vulnerable and marginalised people, with climate variability and change posing a grave threat to food security. South Asia is expected to be one of the three most concentrated regions of hunger in the world by 2050. Whilst highly diverse in both socio-cultural systems and ecosystems, the majority depend on smallholder farming throughout the region. Transforming both agriculture and food systems is therefore critical to sustainable and equitable development and achieving food security. Yet the critical role of gender and intersectionality is still inadequately woven into this future. In this paper, we find little evidence of robust intersectional contextualisation in design and analysis of Climate Smart Agriculture practices. We examine existing evidence to illustrate how a nuanced understanding of gender relations and intersectionality can inform a climate smart approach to landscape and uses of the land to ensure food and nutritional security in the face of climate change. Gender segregated data analysis, which helps recognize the most vulnerable, is an essential underpinning to this transformed approach to policymaking and project design. Direct support is required, alongside structured interventions beyond the farm gate in relation to access to credit and finance, leadership and capacity building and an equity focussed transformation of national and regional policy frameworks on climate impacts. Focusing on literature from India, supplemented with wider South Asian research, we find that despite growing evidence on the relationship between gender, agriculture and climate change, an intersectional analysis of climate smart agriculture, including class, and caste and other social identities, remains limited.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Food systems-based livelihoods are precarious for many of the most vulnerable and marginalised people, with climate variability and change posing a grave threat to food security. South Asia is expected to be one of the three most concentrated regions of hunger in the world by 2050. Whilst highly diverse in both socio-cultural systems and ecosystems, the majority depend on smallholder farming throughout the region. Transforming both agriculture and food systems is therefore critical to sustainable and equitable development and achieving food security. Yet the critical role of gender and intersectionality is still inadequately woven into this future. In this paper, we find little evidence of robust intersectional contextualisation in design and analysis of Climate Smart Agriculture practices. We examine existing evidence to illustrate how a nuanced understanding of gender relations and intersectionality can inform a climate smart approach to landscape and uses of the land to ensure food and nutritional security in the face of climate change. Gender segregated data analysis, which helps recognize the most vulnerable, is an essential underpinning to this transformed approach to policymaking and project design. Direct support is required, alongside structured interventions beyond the farm gate in relation to access to credit and finance, leadership and capacity building and an equity focussed transformation of national and regional policy frameworks on climate impacts. Focusing on literature from India, supplemented with wider South Asian research, we find that despite growing evidence on the relationship between gender, agriculture and climate change, an intersectional analysis of climate smart agriculture, including class, and caste and other social identities, remains limited.
Adaji, Mercy; Vasilakos, Nicholas; Kebede, Bereket
Powering Africa’s sustainable future: The role of cross-border electricity trade on renewable electricity generation Journal Article
In: Energy & Environment, 2025, ISSN: 0958-305X.
@article{6d81492361fa42a2a92f266fa021c4cf,
title = {Powering Africa’s sustainable future: The role of cross-border electricity trade on renewable electricity generation},
author = {Mercy Adaji and Nicholas Vasilakos and Bereket Kebede},
issn = {0958-305X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-17},
journal = {Energy & Environment},
publisher = {Sage Publications},
abstract = {Electricity trade plays a pivotal role in Africa's energy transition pathway, aiding in the distribution of new infrastructure costs, addressing the intermittency of renewable energies, and capitalising on their spatial concentration. Despite these advantages driving the establishment of a regional single electricity market, trading volumes remain relatively low. This study empirically explores Africa's cross-border electricity trade's influence on renewable electricity generation. Utilising a fixed effects model, data for 21 African countries from the World Bank and the International Energy Agency spanning 1996 to 2020 is collected and analysed. The results reveal that a 1% increase in electricity trade significantly raises the share of renewables in total electricity output by approximately 0.05%. Additionally, it is noted that net-exporting countries exhibit weaker positive impacts from electricity trade compared to net importers. Our results highlight the importance of governance quality as a driver of growth in the sector.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Electricity trade plays a pivotal role in Africa's energy transition pathway, aiding in the distribution of new infrastructure costs, addressing the intermittency of renewable energies, and capitalising on their spatial concentration. Despite these advantages driving the establishment of a regional single electricity market, trading volumes remain relatively low. This study empirically explores Africa's cross-border electricity trade's influence on renewable electricity generation. Utilising a fixed effects model, data for 21 African countries from the World Bank and the International Energy Agency spanning 1996 to 2020 is collected and analysed. The results reveal that a 1% increase in electricity trade significantly raises the share of renewables in total electricity output by approximately 0.05%. Additionally, it is noted that net-exporting countries exhibit weaker positive impacts from electricity trade compared to net importers. Our results highlight the importance of governance quality as a driver of growth in the sector.
Clist, Paul; D'Exelle, Ben; Verschoor, Arjan
Risk taking with social consequences Journal Article
In: Journal of Development Studies, 2025, ISSN: 0022-0388, (Code availability: The data and code are available here https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MN2BMQ and https://paulclist.github.io/. Funding information: The research was funded by ESRC-DFID grant ES/J008893/1.).
@article{57c517b101c847639b3b8006a517c8e9,
title = {Risk taking with social consequences},
author = {Paul Clist and Ben D'Exelle and Arjan Verschoor},
doi = {10.1080/00220388.2025.2453523},
issn = {0022-0388},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-02},
journal = {Journal of Development Studies},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Strong egalitarian norms and preferences may affect entrepreneurship. If people feel guilty of their success they may take fewer risks, whilst if they expect their successes to be celebrated, they would take more risks. In this paper we ask whether anticipated social consequences influence risky choices. Do people take more, less or the same risk when inequality results from risky choice? We provide experimental evidence from rural Uganda. Subjects choose lotteries for themselves and a partner under different risk resolutions, allowing us to identify their type. We find anticipated social consequences influence risk taking for most people, as only one quarter are indifferent. Two-fifths are ex post inequality seeking, holding their own pay off constant, and take more risk when inequality is common. This possibility is not considered by previous experiments in the West, but is the largest category for our sample. Only one-third are ex-post inequality averse, reducing inequality of outcomes at a cost to their expected earnings. We show types are robust, and document large gender-based heterogeneity. These results imply inequality-aversion is not holding back risk taking on average. Rather there is great heterogeneity in how people respond to anticipated social consequences.},
note = {Code availability: The data and code are available here https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MN2BMQ and https://paulclist.github.io/. Funding information: The research was funded by ESRC-DFID grant ES/J008893/1.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Strong egalitarian norms and preferences may affect entrepreneurship. If people feel guilty of their success they may take fewer risks, whilst if they expect their successes to be celebrated, they would take more risks. In this paper we ask whether anticipated social consequences influence risky choices. Do people take more, less or the same risk when inequality results from risky choice? We provide experimental evidence from rural Uganda. Subjects choose lotteries for themselves and a partner under different risk resolutions, allowing us to identify their type. We find anticipated social consequences influence risk taking for most people, as only one quarter are indifferent. Two-fifths are ex post inequality seeking, holding their own pay off constant, and take more risk when inequality is common. This possibility is not considered by previous experiments in the West, but is the largest category for our sample. Only one-third are ex-post inequality averse, reducing inequality of outcomes at a cost to their expected earnings. We show types are robust, and document large gender-based heterogeneity. These results imply inequality-aversion is not holding back risk taking on average. Rather there is great heterogeneity in how people respond to anticipated social consequences.
Heaton, Matthew; Perez-Viana, Borja; Emmrich, Peter; Mulat, Belay; Verschoor, Arjan
Understanding farmer preferences to guide crop improvement: The case of grasspea in Ethiopia Journal Article
In: Journal of Development Studies, 2025, ISSN: 0022-0388, (Funding information: This study was supported by the Global Challenges Research Fund.).
@article{955a5c3b3d68404b89e364d68e0e071b,
title = {Understanding farmer preferences to guide crop improvement: The case of grasspea in Ethiopia},
author = {Matthew Heaton and Borja Perez-Viana and Peter Emmrich and Belay Mulat and Arjan Verschoor},
doi = {10.1080/00220388.2025.2453519},
issn = {0022-0388},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-02},
journal = {Journal of Development Studies},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Building climate resilience in agriculture may usefully rely on crop improvement informed by social science studies of farmer preferences. Here, we present the case of grasspea in Ethiopia, a resilient and nutritious legume that can survive conditions where many other crops fail. Excessive consumption however carries the risk of an irreversible, crippling disease, this is possible in the future since the weather extremes that climate change is predicted to bring will create the conditions in which grasspea is one of the food sources that will likely see increased consumption. Crucially, farmers are not fully aware of this risk and may therefore not adopt the low-toxin grasspea that crop scientists have developed and that is about to enter the breeding pipeline. In this study we use focus group discussions, key informant interviews and choice experiments to investigate farmer preferences for grasspea improvement. We confirm that farmers do not place much value on reduced toxicity. Instead, they have strong preferences for other improvements, such as resistance to pests. This suggests that improvements that are needed in future but not yet preferred (i.e. reduced toxicity) should be bundled with improvements that farmers already prefer.},
note = {Funding information: This study was supported by the Global Challenges Research Fund.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Building climate resilience in agriculture may usefully rely on crop improvement informed by social science studies of farmer preferences. Here, we present the case of grasspea in Ethiopia, a resilient and nutritious legume that can survive conditions where many other crops fail. Excessive consumption however carries the risk of an irreversible, crippling disease, this is possible in the future since the weather extremes that climate change is predicted to bring will create the conditions in which grasspea is one of the food sources that will likely see increased consumption. Crucially, farmers are not fully aware of this risk and may therefore not adopt the low-toxin grasspea that crop scientists have developed and that is about to enter the breeding pipeline. In this study we use focus group discussions, key informant interviews and choice experiments to investigate farmer preferences for grasspea improvement. We confirm that farmers do not place much value on reduced toxicity. Instead, they have strong preferences for other improvements, such as resistance to pests. This suggests that improvements that are needed in future but not yet preferred (i.e. reduced toxicity) should be bundled with improvements that farmers already prefer.
Wu, Hangxing; Zhang, Min; He, Yi; Chen, Peiyan; Pasquier, Ulysse; Hu, Hengzhi; Wen, Jiahong
Scenario-based flood adaption of a fast-developing delta city: Modeling the extreme compound flood adaptations for Shanghai Journal Article
In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, vol. 117, 2025, ISSN: 2212-4209, (Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request. Funding information: This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42171282) and Shanghai Pujiang Program (21PJC096).).
@article{f2f92852ea0e4f539c8679910463e0d2,
title = {Scenario-based flood adaption of a fast-developing delta city: Modeling the extreme compound flood adaptations for Shanghai},
author = {Hangxing Wu and Min Zhang and Yi He and Peiyan Chen and Ulysse Pasquier and Hengzhi Hu and Jiahong Wen},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105207},
issn = {2212-4209},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-01},
journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
volume = {117},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The heavy Zhengzhou "7·20" rainstorm, partially caused by Typhoon In-fa in 2021, poured an unprecedented rainfall of 201.9 mm/h, leading to severe flooding and damage. Although many studies in various Chinese cities have preliminarily assessed the potential flood losses under "7·20" rainstorm, much research has focused on the contribution of climate change, limited attention has been paid to the potential impacts of urbanization development, which is crucial for designing flood adaptation strategies. Using high-resolution ocean-land coupled numerical model, we focus on Shanghai, a fast-developing delta city, to evaluate the potential impact of "7·20" rainstorm associated with local coastal storm hazards for flood adaptation planning under future urbanization scenarios. Our findings reveal that rapid urbanization in Shanghai can significantly amplify flood risks caused by events equivalent to "7·20" rainstorm. By 2050, the projected increases in exposed assets and losses can be up to 8 and 5 times, respectively, if such events occur. The adaptation measure of heightening seawalls and dikes provides robust protection against compound fluvial-coastal flooding events, but is costly and less effective against pluvial flooding. In contrast, low-impact development measures of increasing green area may not offer the highest asset exposure reduction but have low initial costs and provide significant ecological benefits. Lowering green space offers the greatest reduction in exposed assets and losses from pluvial flooding, but it’s also costly and may alter the urban landscape. A combination of these measures, where applicable, is recommended to optimize flood resilience and promote sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing delta cities.},
note = {Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request. Funding information: This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42171282) and Shanghai Pujiang Program (21PJC096).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The heavy Zhengzhou "7·20" rainstorm, partially caused by Typhoon In-fa in 2021, poured an unprecedented rainfall of 201.9 mm/h, leading to severe flooding and damage. Although many studies in various Chinese cities have preliminarily assessed the potential flood losses under "7·20" rainstorm, much research has focused on the contribution of climate change, limited attention has been paid to the potential impacts of urbanization development, which is crucial for designing flood adaptation strategies. Using high-resolution ocean-land coupled numerical model, we focus on Shanghai, a fast-developing delta city, to evaluate the potential impact of "7·20" rainstorm associated with local coastal storm hazards for flood adaptation planning under future urbanization scenarios. Our findings reveal that rapid urbanization in Shanghai can significantly amplify flood risks caused by events equivalent to "7·20" rainstorm. By 2050, the projected increases in exposed assets and losses can be up to 8 and 5 times, respectively, if such events occur. The adaptation measure of heightening seawalls and dikes provides robust protection against compound fluvial-coastal flooding events, but is costly and less effective against pluvial flooding. In contrast, low-impact development measures of increasing green area may not offer the highest asset exposure reduction but have low initial costs and provide significant ecological benefits. Lowering green space offers the greatest reduction in exposed assets and losses from pluvial flooding, but it’s also costly and may alter the urban landscape. A combination of these measures, where applicable, is recommended to optimize flood resilience and promote sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing delta cities.
Israelsson, Jennifer; Macintyre, Helen L.; Jenkins, Katie; Sanderson, Michael
Bringing real-world problems into climate models – RMetS Weather and Climate conference workshop Journal Article
In: Weather, vol. 80, pp. 70–71, 2025, ISSN: 0043-1656, (Funding information: JI and HM acknowledge support from the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health.).
@article{c40e90aa46af4ea9a77768d93e9bb37c,
title = {Bringing real-world problems into climate models – RMetS Weather and Climate conference workshop},
author = {Jennifer Israelsson and Helen L. Macintyre and Katie Jenkins and Michael Sanderson},
doi = {10.1002/wea.7666},
issn = {0043-1656},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-01},
journal = {Weather},
volume = {80},
pages = {70–71},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Most of us will experience climate change through impacts to our lives, such as increases in risk of heat-related illness, water scarcity or changes in the spread of vector-borne and infectious diseases. Our supply and quality of food might be affected by changes in crop yields and biodiversity, and economic consequences may be felt through damage to infrastructure from extreme weather. To better prepare and respond to future climate change, detailed understanding of future climate-related risks and the impacts they may pose to natural and human systems is needed. Here we present findings of a workshop in the UK to explore the challenges and opportunities of this topic.},
note = {Funding information: JI and HM acknowledge support from the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Most of us will experience climate change through impacts to our lives, such as increases in risk of heat-related illness, water scarcity or changes in the spread of vector-borne and infectious diseases. Our supply and quality of food might be affected by changes in crop yields and biodiversity, and economic consequences may be felt through damage to infrastructure from extreme weather. To better prepare and respond to future climate change, detailed understanding of future climate-related risks and the impacts they may pose to natural and human systems is needed. Here we present findings of a workshop in the UK to explore the challenges and opportunities of this topic.
Feriga, Moustafa; Gracia, Nancy Lozano; Serneels, Pieter
The impact of climate change on work: Lessons for developing countries Journal Article
In: World Bank Research Observer, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 104–146, 2025, ISSN: 0257-3032.
@article{af3d9892d40e49ff90f0a6044c1e23f0,
title = {The impact of climate change on work: Lessons for developing countries},
author = {Moustafa Feriga and Nancy Lozano Gracia and Pieter Serneels},
doi = {10.1093/wbro/lkae002},
issn = {0257-3032},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-01},
journal = {World Bank Research Observer},
volume = {40},
number = {1},
pages = {104–146},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
abstract = {We identify five areas where climate change may impact work and draw lessons for developing countries by reviewing the evidence. Firstly, demand for labor is unevenly affected, with agriculture, heat-exposed manufacturing, and the brown energy sector experiencing downturns, while other sectors may see a rise, resulting in an uncertain overall impact. Secondly, climate change impacts labor supply through absenteeism, shirking, and altering work-time patterns, depending on the activity and sector. Thirdly, productivity may decline, especially in heat-exposed industries, primarily due to health reasons. Fourthly, heightened earnings variability likely increases vulnerability among the self-employed. Fifthly, climate change can influence labor allocation and catalyze sectoral reallocation. Higher temperatures are also linked to increased migration. But caution is needed in interpreting these findings, as studies across these topics predominantly use fixed effect estimation and concentrate on short-term impacts, neglecting adaptation. Emerging research on adaptation indicates that workplace cooling is unappealing for firms with narrow profit margins, while coping strategies of farms and households have unclear optimality due to adoption barriers. Government responses remain understudied, with six potential areas identified: green jobs, green skills, labor-oriented adaptation, flexible work regulation, labor market integration, and social protection. We conclude by outlining future research directions.},
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We identify five areas where climate change may impact work and draw lessons for developing countries by reviewing the evidence. Firstly, demand for labor is unevenly affected, with agriculture, heat-exposed manufacturing, and the brown energy sector experiencing downturns, while other sectors may see a rise, resulting in an uncertain overall impact. Secondly, climate change impacts labor supply through absenteeism, shirking, and altering work-time patterns, depending on the activity and sector. Thirdly, productivity may decline, especially in heat-exposed industries, primarily due to health reasons. Fourthly, heightened earnings variability likely increases vulnerability among the self-employed. Fifthly, climate change can influence labor allocation and catalyze sectoral reallocation. Higher temperatures are also linked to increased migration. But caution is needed in interpreting these findings, as studies across these topics predominantly use fixed effect estimation and concentrate on short-term impacts, neglecting adaptation. Emerging research on adaptation indicates that workplace cooling is unappealing for firms with narrow profit margins, while coping strategies of farms and households have unclear optimality due to adoption barriers. Government responses remain understudied, with six potential areas identified: green jobs, green skills, labor-oriented adaptation, flexible work regulation, labor market integration, and social protection. We conclude by outlining future research directions.
Cataldo, Nicolas Enrique Labra; Schmid, Alejandro Gallego; Muñoz, Edmundo; McLachlan, Carly
Environmental assessment of formal and informal waste treatment of liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors Journal Article
In: Science of the Total Environment, vol. 962, 2025, ISSN: 0048-9697.
@article{8c565e85204348b99bde1041d54f2483,
title = {Environmental assessment of formal and informal waste treatment of liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors},
author = {Nicolas Enrique Labra Cataldo and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Edmundo Muñoz and Carly McLachlan},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178273},
issn = {0048-9697},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-25},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
volume = {962},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {In Santiago, Chile, 315,000 liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors are discarded annually. Of this amount, the formal sector of refurbishment and recycling manages only 5 %, creating the conditions for the emergence of informal management systems. This study provides the first comprehensive environmental and circularity assessment of monitor treatment across multiple impact categories, identifying trade-offs associated with formal and informal operations. For this, a life cycle assessment approach is utilised at both the product-level and the municipal management systems level, addressing the processes from the collection of the monitor to its end-of-life. At the product-level, two formal and two informal routes for managing an LCD monitor were evaluated. The results reveal that formal treatment companies have the best environmental performance in all the midpoint categories of ReCiPe, achieving benefits 42,000 times greater than formal disposal for marine eutrophication, and 25 % better than informal flea market traders across all categories. The analysis of management processes attributes most environmental benefits to refurbishment, representing between 76 % and 99 % of the magnitude of the assessed environmental impacts. A sensitivity analysis shows that the environmental performance of an informal trader surpasses that of a formal treatment company when both offer the same expected lifespan for a refurbished monitor and maintain their respective refurbishment rates offered. The municipal-level analysis was carried out through the evaluation of three scenarios. The results indicate that the scenario in which the informal sector cooperates with the formal sector and exclusively dedicates to collecting monitors exhibits superior environmental performance, averaging environmental benefits that are ten times greater than the current scenario and achieving valorisation rates of 22 %, the highest among the evaluated scenarios. The results of this research contribute to the discussion on formalisation and the promotion of the circular economy in the Global South.},
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In Santiago, Chile, 315,000 liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors are discarded annually. Of this amount, the formal sector of refurbishment and recycling manages only 5 %, creating the conditions for the emergence of informal management systems. This study provides the first comprehensive environmental and circularity assessment of monitor treatment across multiple impact categories, identifying trade-offs associated with formal and informal operations. For this, a life cycle assessment approach is utilised at both the product-level and the municipal management systems level, addressing the processes from the collection of the monitor to its end-of-life. At the product-level, two formal and two informal routes for managing an LCD monitor were evaluated. The results reveal that formal treatment companies have the best environmental performance in all the midpoint categories of ReCiPe, achieving benefits 42,000 times greater than formal disposal for marine eutrophication, and 25 % better than informal flea market traders across all categories. The analysis of management processes attributes most environmental benefits to refurbishment, representing between 76 % and 99 % of the magnitude of the assessed environmental impacts. A sensitivity analysis shows that the environmental performance of an informal trader surpasses that of a formal treatment company when both offer the same expected lifespan for a refurbished monitor and maintain their respective refurbishment rates offered. The municipal-level analysis was carried out through the evaluation of three scenarios. The results indicate that the scenario in which the informal sector cooperates with the formal sector and exclusively dedicates to collecting monitors exhibits superior environmental performance, averaging environmental benefits that are ten times greater than the current scenario and achieving valorisation rates of 22 %, the highest among the evaluated scenarios. The results of this research contribute to the discussion on formalisation and the promotion of the circular economy in the Global South.
Jones, Natalia R.; Elson, Richard; Wade, Matthew J.; McIntyre-Nolan, Shannon; Woods, Andrew; Lewis, James; Hatziioanou, Diane; Vivancos, Roberto; Hunter, Paul R.; Lake, Iain R.
Localised wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels linked to COVID-19 cases: A long-term multisite study in England Journal Article
In: Science of the Total Environment, vol. 962, 2025, ISSN: 0048-9697, (Data availability statement: The UKHSA welcomes applications from organisations looking to use these data, and all applications will be rigorously reviewed using an objective, standards-based process. Potential applicants should contact DataAccess@ukhsa.gov.uk. Funding information: NRJ, RE, PH and IRL are funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency, King's College London, and the University of East Anglia.).
@article{59f0b470a9dc41d5bd785dffe573983e,
title = {Localised wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels linked to COVID-19 cases: A long-term multisite study in England},
author = {Natalia R. Jones and Richard Elson and Matthew J. Wade and Shannon McIntyre-Nolan and Andrew Woods and James Lewis and Diane Hatziioanou and Roberto Vivancos and Paul R. Hunter and Iain R. Lake},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178455},
issn = {0048-9697},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-25},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
volume = {962},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) can monitor for the presence of human health pathogens in the population. During COVID-19, WBS was widely used to determine wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration (concentrations) providing information on community COVID-19 cases (cases). However, studies examining the relationship between concentrations and cases tend to be localised or focussed on small-scale institutional settings. Few have examined this relationship in multiple settings, over long periods, with large sample numbers, nor attempted to quantify the relationship between concentrations and cases or detail how catchment characteristics affected these. This 18-month study (07/20-12/21) explored the correlation and quantitative relationship between concentrations and cases using censored regression. Our analysis used >94,000 wastewater samples collected from 452 diverse sampling sites (259 Sewage Treatment Works (STW) and 193 Sewer Network Sites (SNS)) covering ~65% of the English population. Wastewater concentrations were linked to ~6 million diagnostically confirmed COVID-19 cases. High correlation coefficients were found between concentrations and cases (STW: median r=0.66, IQR:0.57–0.74; SNS: median r=0.65, IQR:0.54–0.74). The quantitative relationship (regression coefficient) between concentrations and cases was variable between catchments. Catchment and sampling characteristics (e.g. size of population and grab vs automated sampling) had significant but small effects on correlation and regression coefficients. During the last six months of the study correlation coefficients reduced and regression coefficients became highly variable between catchments. This coincided with a shift towards younger cases, a highly vaccinated population and rapid emergence of the variant Omicron. The English WBS programme was rapidly introduced at scale during COVID-19. Laboratory methods evolved and study catchments were highly diverse in size and characteristics. Despite this diversity, findings indicate that WBS provides an effective proxy for establishing COVID-19 dynamics across a wide variety of communities. While there is potential for predicting COVID-19 cases from wastewater concentration, this may be more effective at smaller scales. },
note = {Data availability statement: The UKHSA welcomes applications from organisations looking to use these data, and all applications will be rigorously reviewed using an objective, standards-based process. Potential applicants should contact DataAccess@ukhsa.gov.uk. Funding information: NRJ, RE, PH and IRL are funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency, King's College London, and the University of East Anglia.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) can monitor for the presence of human health pathogens in the population. During COVID-19, WBS was widely used to determine wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration (concentrations) providing information on community COVID-19 cases (cases). However, studies examining the relationship between concentrations and cases tend to be localised or focussed on small-scale institutional settings. Few have examined this relationship in multiple settings, over long periods, with large sample numbers, nor attempted to quantify the relationship between concentrations and cases or detail how catchment characteristics affected these. This 18-month study (07/20-12/21) explored the correlation and quantitative relationship between concentrations and cases using censored regression. Our analysis used >94,000 wastewater samples collected from 452 diverse sampling sites (259 Sewage Treatment Works (STW) and 193 Sewer Network Sites (SNS)) covering ~65% of the English population. Wastewater concentrations were linked to ~6 million diagnostically confirmed COVID-19 cases. High correlation coefficients were found between concentrations and cases (STW: median r=0.66, IQR:0.57–0.74; SNS: median r=0.65, IQR:0.54–0.74). The quantitative relationship (regression coefficient) between concentrations and cases was variable between catchments. Catchment and sampling characteristics (e.g. size of population and grab vs automated sampling) had significant but small effects on correlation and regression coefficients. During the last six months of the study correlation coefficients reduced and regression coefficients became highly variable between catchments. This coincided with a shift towards younger cases, a highly vaccinated population and rapid emergence of the variant Omicron. The English WBS programme was rapidly introduced at scale during COVID-19. Laboratory methods evolved and study catchments were highly diverse in size and characteristics. Despite this diversity, findings indicate that WBS provides an effective proxy for establishing COVID-19 dynamics across a wide variety of communities. While there is potential for predicting COVID-19 cases from wastewater concentration, this may be more effective at smaller scales.
Clarke, Joanne; Haour, Anne; Morel, Hana; Forster, Johanna; Orlove, Ben; Holtorf, Cornelius; Hutcheson, Andy; Adinorkuor, Victoria Aryee; Brunnschweiler, Christa; Brooks, Nick; Wade, Sarah; Wellington, Nii-Adziri; Addo, Kwasi Appeaning; Simpson, Nicholas P.
Curating transformation can strengthen adaptation and minimize losses and damages Journal Article
In: npj Climate Action, vol. 4, no. 4, 2025, ISSN: 2731-9814.
@article{a277e673d7654abb9c79a61adea69495,
title = {Curating transformation can strengthen adaptation and minimize losses and damages},
author = {Joanne Clarke and Anne Haour and Hana Morel and Johanna Forster and Ben Orlove and Cornelius Holtorf and Andy Hutcheson and Victoria Aryee Adinorkuor and Christa Brunnschweiler and Nick Brooks and Sarah Wade and Nii-Adziri Wellington and Kwasi Appeaning Addo and Nicholas P. Simpson},
doi = {10.1038/s44168-025-00210-z},
issn = {2731-9814},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-23},
journal = {npj Climate Action},
volume = {4},
number = {4},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
abstract = {Heritage conservation recognizes that losses and damages cannot be entirely prevented, that decisions about what to keep and what to let go are fundamental to maintaining values for future generations; even when what is valued is gone. The heritage principle of curating transformation can advance climate action through pragmatic and participatory management of losses and damages, offering lessons for climate change adaptation and giving people agency over what is lost.},
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Heritage conservation recognizes that losses and damages cannot be entirely prevented, that decisions about what to keep and what to let go are fundamental to maintaining values for future generations; even when what is valued is gone. The heritage principle of curating transformation can advance climate action through pragmatic and participatory management of losses and damages, offering lessons for climate change adaptation and giving people agency over what is lost.
Redhead, John W.; Brown, Matt; Price, Jeff; Robinson, Emma; Nicholls, Robert J.; Warren, Rachel; Pywell, Richard F.
National horizon scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate Journal Article
In: Climate Resilience and Sustainability, vol. 4, no. 1, 2025, ISSN: 2692-4587.
@article{a2e6223c5a804ae593edc8aec5b5bc62,
title = {National horizon scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate},
author = {John W. Redhead and Matt Brown and Jeff Price and Emma Robinson and Robert J. Nicholls and Rachel Warren and Richard F. Pywell},
doi = {10.1002/cli2.70007},
issn = {2692-4587},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-23},
journal = {Climate Resilience and Sustainability},
volume = {4},
number = {1},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Most national assessments of climate change-related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process-based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high-level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre-industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Most national assessments of climate change-related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process-based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high-level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre-industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.
Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Vahedifard, Farshid; Sadhasivam, Nitheshnirmal; Ohenhen, Leonard; Dasho, Oluwaseyi; Tiwari, Ashutosh; Werth, Susanna; Azhar, Mohammed; Zhao, Yunxia; Nicholls, Robert J.; Aghakouchak, Amir
Aging dams, political instability, poor human decisions and climate change: Recipe for human disaster Journal Article
In: npj Natural Hazards, vol. 2, no. 1, 2025, ISSN: 2948-2100, (Data availability statement: No datasets were generated or analyzed during the current study. Acknowledgements: A grant from DoD supported this research. The building footprint is provided by Google Research (https://data.humdata.org/dataset/buildings-footprint-floods-derna-libya). European Space Agency, Sentinel-1 SAR images are obtained through Alaska Satellite Facilities at https://asf.alaska.edu/. The InSAR deformation datasets and distortion angles generated in this study are available at https://doi.org/10.7294/25374619.).
@article{69ec0695a7604cbb9e8b0a20d49e4a0f,
title = {Aging dams, political instability, poor human decisions and climate change: Recipe for human disaster},
author = {Manoochehr Shirzaei and Farshid Vahedifard and Nitheshnirmal Sadhasivam and Leonard Ohenhen and Oluwaseyi Dasho and Ashutosh Tiwari and Susanna Werth and Mohammed Azhar and Yunxia Zhao and Robert J. Nicholls and Amir Aghakouchak},
doi = {10.1038/s44304-024-00056-1},
issn = {2948-2100},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-16},
journal = {npj Natural Hazards},
volume = {2},
number = {1},
publisher = {Nature Research},
abstract = {In Derna, Libya, a record-breaking storm and subsequent dam failures on September 10, 2023, caused over 11,000 deaths. Analyzing satellite data from 2016–2023, we found 1.8 mm/yr of differential settlement in dams contributed to their failure, and flooding damaged ~8570 buildings. We argue that the interplay of aging infrastructure, political instability, climate change, and human decisions drove this disaster, stressing the need for a holistic ‘healthcare’ management approach to prevent future catastrophes.},
note = {Data availability statement: No datasets were generated or analyzed during the current study. Acknowledgements: A grant from DoD supported this research. The building footprint is provided by Google Research (https://data.humdata.org/dataset/buildings-footprint-floods-derna-libya). European Space Agency, Sentinel-1 SAR images are obtained through Alaska Satellite Facilities at https://asf.alaska.edu/. The InSAR deformation datasets and distortion angles generated in this study are available at https://doi.org/10.7294/25374619.},
keywords = {},
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In Derna, Libya, a record-breaking storm and subsequent dam failures on September 10, 2023, caused over 11,000 deaths. Analyzing satellite data from 2016–2023, we found 1.8 mm/yr of differential settlement in dams contributed to their failure, and flooding damaged ~8570 buildings. We argue that the interplay of aging infrastructure, political instability, climate change, and human decisions drove this disaster, stressing the need for a holistic ‘healthcare’ management approach to prevent future catastrophes.
Smith, Adam J. P.; Minns, Asher; Nicholls, Robert J.; Beswick, Anna; Jenkins, Katie; Avrutin, Sandy; Robson, Craig
Reflections on delivering place-based climate risk data in support of local adaptation decisions Journal Article
In: Climate Risk Management, vol. 48, 2025, ISSN: 2212-0963, (Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request. Funding information: The research described here is part of the NERC funded project: OpenCLIM (Open CLimate Impacts modelling framework) (NE/T013931/1). Ongoing knowledge exchange work is aligned with the NERC funded project: Maximising UK Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Hub (grant reference APP23040). AJPS was supported by Impact funding from the University of East Anglia (UEA).).
@article{55c54292efaf48ffb0a8a58ed539fad6,
title = {Reflections on delivering place-based climate risk data in support of local adaptation decisions},
author = {Adam J. P. Smith and Asher Minns and Robert J. Nicholls and Anna Beswick and Katie Jenkins and Sandy Avrutin and Craig Robson},
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2025.100701},
issn = {2212-0963},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
volume = {48},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Strengthening the adaptive capacity of the UK, via national plans and local-scale interventions, requires easy access to climate risk information and adaptation scenarios. Stakeholder engagement can ensure the right balance between top-down prescriptive modelling, and bottom-up, solution-focussed and lived experience approaches. National-scale, spatially-explicit, integrated climate risk frameworks can help inform the needs of localised climate risk assessments, but there are barriers to local actors accessing the information.},
note = {Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request. Funding information: The research described here is part of the NERC funded project: OpenCLIM (Open CLimate Impacts modelling framework) (NE/T013931/1). Ongoing knowledge exchange work is aligned with the NERC funded project: Maximising UK Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Hub (grant reference APP23040). AJPS was supported by Impact funding from the University of East Anglia (UEA).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
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Strengthening the adaptive capacity of the UK, via national plans and local-scale interventions, requires easy access to climate risk information and adaptation scenarios. Stakeholder engagement can ensure the right balance between top-down prescriptive modelling, and bottom-up, solution-focussed and lived experience approaches. National-scale, spatially-explicit, integrated climate risk frameworks can help inform the needs of localised climate risk assessments, but there are barriers to local actors accessing the information.
