Tyndall Centre Journal Articles

@article{81632e3cc49046548f8c7cd9bee8b337,

title = {A framework for classifying climate change questions used in public opinion surveys},

author = {John Kenny and Lucas Geese and Andrew Jordan and Irene Lorenzoni},

doi = {10.1080/09644016.2024.2429264},

issn = {0964-4016},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-20},

journal = {Environmental Politics},

publisher = {Routledge},

abstract = {Climate change is a significant site of political contestation, with public opinion frequently invoked to support claims for more (or less) action. Yet, ‘climate change public opinion’ is an umbrella term encompassing many different components. Empirical research has recently burgeoned, but an up-to-date and globally comprehensive guide to navigating the interconnected concepts currently measured is still lacking. In this review, we develop an original classification framework based on questions fielded in over 315 surveys across different parts of the world. We reflect on what aspects the questions elicit, relate them to patterns in the existing empirical literature, and identify and reflect on important implications for future research. Given the diversity of climate-relevant concepts that can be measured via survey questions, we recommend that researchers are clear about which component(s) of climate change public opinion they are eliciting, how they analyze these, and situate their research claims and policy recommendations accordingly.},

note = {Funding information: The work was supported by the European Research Council (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601) and the UK Economic and Social Research Council (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) ES/S012257/1).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{7e97afd2c1d64eff83fd3e1f95692558,

title = {Framing resilience to manage complex environmental systems},

author = {Ian Townend and Jon French and Robert Nicholls},

doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2024.09.008},

issn = {1479-2605},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-15},

journal = {Planet Earth},

volume = {7},

number = {11},

pages = {1941–1952},

publisher = {Natural Environment Research Council},

abstract = {The significant challenges of managing complex environmental systems in a changing world are widely acknowledged. There are widespread calls for transformation in our approach and for the adoption of more holistic perspectives. In this paper, we explore the concept of “resilience” within a system dynamics framework as an attractive and appropriate conceptual approach for this problem. We link this to the evaluation and selection of adaptation pathways and transitions within the constraints of a “safe operating space,” recognizing planetary boundaries as well as operational and sectoral constraints. We discuss the relative merits of using quantitative modeling to explore the evolution of individual system state functions versus the use of suites of measures that aim to characterize and track the overall resilience of complex environmental systems. Using national and global examples, we demonstrate how such a resilience-based approach can be made operational, which is a fundamental requirement for wider adoption.},

note = {Funding Information: This work is a follow-on from a project supported by the Strategic Priorities Fund, UK Climate Resilience Programme, through a UK Research & Innovation award (NE/S016651/1).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{6379eb791dd7438e810389bc36bc20ef,

title = {Sustainability-aligned values: Exploring the concept, evidence, and practice},

author = {Adrian Martin and Patricia Balvanera and Christopher M. Raymond and Erik Gómez-Baggethun and Uta Eser and Rachelle K. Gould and Louise Guibrunet and Zuzana V. Harmáčková and Andra I. Horcea-Milcu and Ann-Kathrin Koessler and Ritesh Kumar and Dominic Lenzi and Juliana Merçon and Agatha Nthenge and Patrick J. O'Farrell and Unai Pascual and Julian Rode and Yuki Yoshida and Noelia Zafra-Calvo},

doi = {10.5751/ES-15498-290418},

issn = {1708-3087},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-12},

journal = {Ecology and Society},

volume = {29},

number = {4},

publisher = {The Resilience Alliance},

abstract = {Modern environmental thought has always involved normative claims about the values needed for sustainability. This has often played out in debates between proponents of anthropocentric and ecocentric ways of valuing nature. More recently, there has been a flourishing of interest in relational and pluricentric ways of valuing nature, coinciding with a “turn to values” in the sustainability literature. In this paper we explore the meaning and use of the term “sustainability-aligned values.” Following the 2022 IPBES Values Assessment we consider these as values that are crucial for shaping decisions that will help bring about sustainability. Our characterization of sustainably-aligned values assumes inherent pluralism because of diverse interpretations of sustainability and of pathways toward it. Nevertheless, a review of three bodies of literature suggests that there is considerable agreement about the kinds of values that align with sustainability. In particular, the nurturing of certain relational values is now widely seen as supportive of sustainability, including values regarding what matters in human interactions with nature (such as stewardship), and values regarding relationships between humans (such as collectivism). We proceed to pose critical questions about the proposition that certain values support sustainability. We ask whether this emerging body of thought is consistent with pluralist requirements to foster values diversity, whether an agenda to nurture values aligned with sustainability is actionable, and how mobilizing sustainability-aligned values entails addressing power imbalances.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: No new data is used in this paper.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{aa6c47730f5c4e18b84f4fc3bac71a7c,

title = {Theory and the future of land-climate science},

author = {Michael P. Byrne and Gabriele C. Hegerl and Jacob Scheff and Ori Adam and Alexis Berg and Michela Biasutti and Simona Bordoni and Aiguo Dai and Ruth Geen and Matthew Henry and Spencer A. Hill and Cathy Hohenegger and Vincent Humphrey and Manoj Joshi and Alexandra G. Konings and Marysa M. Laguë and F. Hugo Lambert and Flavio Lehner and Justin S. Mankin and Kaighin A. McColl and Karen A. McKinnon and Angeline G. Pendergrass and Marianne Pietschnig and Luca Schmidt and Andrew P. Schurer and E. Marian Scott and David Sexton and Steven C. Sherwood and Lucas R. Vargas Zeppetello and Yi Zhang},

doi = {10.1038/s41561-024-01553-8},

issn = {1752-0894},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-01},

journal = {Nature Geoscience},

volume = {17},

number = {11},

pages = {1079–1086},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Climate over land—where humans live and the majority of food is produced—is changing rapidly, driving severe impacts through extreme heat, wildfires, drought and flooding. Our ability to monitor and model this changing climate is being transformed through new observational systems and increasingly complex Earth system models. But fundamental understanding of the processes governing land climate has not kept pace, weakening our ability to interpret and utilize data from these advanced tools. Here we argue that for land-climate science to accelerate forwards, an alternative approach is needed. We advocate a parallel scientific effort, one emphasizing robust theories, that aims to inspire current and future land-climate scientists to better comprehend the processes governing land climate, its variability and extremes and its sensitivity to global warming. Such an effort, we believe, is essential to better understand the risks people face, where they live, in an era of climate change.},

note = {Data availability statement: The model data used to produce Fig. 1 are provided by the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling and can be accessed at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. Funding information: We thank the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland for generously funding a workshop on land-climate science at the University of St Andrews (6–8 June 2022), which inspired this Perspective. M.P.B. was supported by the UKRI Frontier Research Guarantee scheme (grant number EP/Y027868/1), S.A.H. was funded by NSF award no. 2123327 and A.D. was funded by NSF award no. AGS-2015780.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{950dded18c9940a0ab8cb36fc9fe54b5,

title = {Politicians and climate change: A systematic review of the literature},

author = {Brendan Moore and Lucas Geese and John Kenny and Harriet Dudley and Andrew Jordan and Alba Prados Pascual and Irene Lorenzoni and Simon Schaub and Joan Enguer and Jale Tosun},

doi = {10.1002/wcc.908},

issn = {1757-7780},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-01},

journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},

volume = {15},

number = {6},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Politicians' engagement with climate change is the focus of an emerging literature, but this research has not been subjected to systematic analysis. To address this important gap, we perform a systematic review of 141 articles on politicians and climate change published between 1985 and 2021. We find a growing research area; almost half of the articles were published after 2018. Existing research is fragmented and focused on a small number of democracies in the Global North, with the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Norway and Australia being the most-heavily studied. Substantively, we analyze politicians' motivations, the incentives and barriers they face, and the strategies they employ to block/enable climate action. We find evidence of politicians being both intrinsically and extrinsically motivated. Intrinsic motivations often derive from formative experiences occurring prior to entering politics. Extrinsic motivations most commonly include publics/voters and external events. Importantly, intrinsic and extrinsic motivations vary in different political contexts, and indeed these two motivations may pull politicians in different directions. Politicians may employ various strategies—such as reframing—to achieve their desired policy outcomes. Moreover, politicians' motivations and strategies in relation to climate change are not static, but often vary. We conclude that there is an urgent need for research on how politicians are enabled and/or constrained by political system characteristics. Research is especially called for in the Global South and/or less democratic systems, as well as on investigating how politicians are (not) decarbonizing difficult-to-abate sectors and how they reconcile the sometimes-competing demands for climate change mitigation and adaptation.},

note = {Funding Information: Funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601), and the UK ESRC (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) (Grant ES/S012257/) and the SeNSS DTP (Grant ES/P00072X/1)).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{c20c38218b814d0c862a6f97881d2795,

title = {Correcting misperceptions about trends and norms to address weak collective action – Experimental evidence from a recycling program},

author = {Hanna Fuhrmann-Riebel and Ben D'Exelle and Kristian Lopez Vargas and Sebastian Tonke and Arjan Verschoor},

doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103046},

issn = {0095-0696},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-01},

journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},

volume = {128},

publisher = {Academic Press Inc.},

abstract = {Finding ways to encourage collective action in contexts where only a minority adopts the desired behavior is central to solving many of today’s global environmental problems. We study how correcting people’s beliefs about social norms and behavioral trends encourages collective action in a setting where the desired behavior is not yet prevalent. In a field experiment, we test whether low sign-up rates for a recycling program in urban Peru can be increased by providing information (1) that most people regard participation in the program as important, i.e., on the “injunctive norm”, (2) on an increasing recent trend in sign-up rates. We find that the effectiveness of the treatments depends on people’s prior beliefs: Correcting inaccurate beliefs increases sign-up decisions significantly among people who either substantially underestimate the injunctive norm or who underestimate the positive trend. As this sub-group of people is in the minority in our set-up, we do not observe statistically significant average treatment effects. We further find that the effects of the treatments increase in the level of underestimation. Our evidence demonstrates that belief updating can be used effectively to encourage collective action where it is weak as long as a meaningful number of people underestimates the relevant trends and norms.},

note = {Funding information: This research was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the University of East Anglia, UK (UEA GCRF Rapid Response Fund).},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{848b8b999b934de2ba60717b1626dea6,

title = {Spray coating of 2D materials in the production of antifouling membranes for membrane distillation},

author = {Clara Skuse and Monica Alberto and Jose Miguel Luque-Alled and Vicente Orts Mercadillo and Edidiong Asuquo and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Adisa Azapagic and Patricia Gorgojo},

doi = {10.1016/j.memsci.2024.123162},

issn = {0376-7388},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-01},

journal = {Journal of Membrane Science},

volume = {711},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Membrane surface coatings with 2D materials have been shown to exhibit antifouling properties for water-treatment applications; however, synthesis methods currently based on vacuum filtration are not easily scalable. This study describes a scalable method for coating membranes with a range of 2D materials including graphene oxide (GO), hexagonal boron nitride (hBN), molybdenum disulphide (MoS2) and tungsten disulphide (WS2). Isopropyl alcohol solutions containing each class of the 2D flakes were spray-coated onto commercial polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) using a pyrolyser. The nanomaterials were secured with polydopamine (PDA) as a crosslinker in a method that could easily be integrated into a scalable roll-to-roll process. Changes in morphology, surface roughness, hydrophobicity, mechanical durability and chemical composition were evaluated using scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, contact angle, tensile strength measurements and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. The 2D nanomaterials-coated membranes were tested in membrane distillation (MD) experiments over 72 h and compared to pristine PVDF and PDA/PVDF membranes. Salt rejection and MD performance stability were evaluated using feedwaters with high concentrations of humic acid (150 ppm) and paraffin oil (200 ppm) simulating simple organic wastewater from oil and gas extraction. The flux decline ratio was measured in terms of percentage permeate loss per hour (%/h), to allow for future comparisons with studies with different experimental times. The pristine PVDF membrane failed after 10 h by pore-wetting due to fouling while the PDA/PVDF membrane had the largest flux decline ratio (0.3 %/h). The membranes coated with GO and hBN had flux decline ratios orders of magnitude lower (0.0021 ± 0.005 and 0.028 ± 0.01 %/h, respectively). All membranes had a high salt rejection (>99.9 %). The GO-coated membrane was the only membrane type that was able to treat both surfactant-containing and foulant-containing feedwaters. The improved performance is attributed to the decrease in both surface roughness and hydrophobicity, which reduces the adsorption of foulants onto the membrane surface. This work shows a facile, scalable method to overcome fouling limitations in MD.},

note = {Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Authors},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{67db9618dcaa42138b526da391a24bad,

title = {Reconciling conservation and development requires enhanced integration and broader aims: A cross-continental assessment of landscape approaches},

author = {Natalia Estrada-Carmona and Rachel Carmenta and James Reed and Ermias Betemariam and Fabrice Declerck and Thomas Falk and Abigail K. Hart and Sarah K. Jones and Fritz Kleinschroth and Matthew McCartney and Ruth Meinzen-Dick and Jeff Milder and Marcela Quintero and Roseline Remans and Diego Valbuena and Louise Willemen and Camilla Zanzanaini and Wei Zhang},

doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2024.08.014},

issn = {1479-2605},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-18},

journal = {Planet Earth},

volume = {7},

number = {10},

pages = {1858–1873},

publisher = {Natural Environment Research Council},

abstract = {Expectations for agricultural landscapes in subtropical and tropical regions are high, aiming for conservation and development amid climate change, unfair trade, poverty, and environmental degradation. Landscape approaches (LAs) are gaining momentum as means to reconcile expectations, although they face multiple challenges, including unclear distinctions among LAs and stakeholder involvement. We studied 380 LAs from three continents via questionnaires with landscape managers (2012–2015 and 2021) and identified three LA types through cluster analysis: an “integrated” type with longer-term, multisectoral goals involving various stakeholders early in the design and two shorter-term types focused on sectoral priorities of preservation or production. Better-performing LAs are associated with longevity, inclusivity, and diversified investments across goals, notably those enabling social justice. International stakeholder analysis shows broad support for LAs but identifies gaps between support and LAs’ needs. The growing interest in LAs is promising. Yet, underpinning effective and lasting LAs that reconcile multiple expectations requires better support.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{85a30e022c71471a9da66196657e7cbe,

title = {Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics},

author = {Matthew W. Jones and Sander Veraverbeke and Niels Andela and Stefan H. Doerr and Crystal Kolden and Guilherme Mataveli and M. Lucrecia Pettinari and Corinne Le Quéré and Thais M. Rosan and Guido R. Werf and Dave Wees and John T. Abatzoglou},

doi = {10.1126/science.adl5889},

issn = {0036-8075},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-18},

journal = {Science},

volume = {386},

number = {6719},

publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},

abstract = {Climate change increases fire-favorable weather in forests, but fire trends are also affected by multiple other controlling factors that are difficult to untangle. We use machine learning to systematically group forest ecoregions into 12 global forest pyromes, with each showing distinct sensitivities to climatic, human, and vegetation controls. This delineation revealed that rapidly increasing forest fire emissions in extratropical pyromes, linked to climate change, offset declining emissions in tropical pyromes during 2001 to 2023. Annual emissions tripled in one extratropical pyrome due to increases in fire-favorable weather, compounded by increased forest cover and productivity. This contributed to a 60% increase in forest fire carbon emissions from forest ecoregions globally. Our results highlight the increasing vulnerability of forests and their carbon stocks to fire disturbance under climate change.},

note = {Data and materials availability: Pyromes are provided in three geospatial formats at Zenodo (131); shapefiles; 0.25° grids; and 0.05° grids. Gridded correlations for all variables are also available at Zenodo (131). The R code used for clustering forest ecoregions into pyromes is also archived at Zenodo (131). The raw data representing burned area, carbon emissions, and all predictor variables in our analysis are publicly available (49, 58, 59, 61, 62, 67–70, 132), except for the lightning flash data from the WWLLN (63), which are subject to a commercial agreement but can be provided in a gridded and coarsened form upon request. Funding: This work was funded by the following: UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/V01417X/1 (M.W.J.); European Commission (E.C.) Horizon 2020 (H2020) project VERIFY grant 776810 (M.W.J.); São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) grants 2019/25701-8, 2020/15230-5 and 2023/03206-0 (G.M.); EC H2020 project FirEURisk grant no. 101003890 (S.H.D., M.L.P.); NERC project UK-FDRS grant NE/T003553/1 (S.H.D.); European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) FireCCI project contract no. 4000126706/19/I-NB (MLP); Royal Society grant RPR1191063 (C.L.Q.); National Science Foundation grant OAI-2019762 (JTA).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{86ffa79345b3424798a8a930de2fc259,

title = {Green ammonia adoption in shipping: Opportunities and challenges across the fuel supply chain},

author = {Abhilasha Fullonton and Amanda Lea-Langton and Fatima Madugu and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2024.106444},

issn = {0308-597X},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-15},

journal = {Marine Policy},

volume = {171},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The IMO’s 2023 revised targets increase pressure on shipping and trading organisations to urgently cut energy consumption and transition away from fossil fuels. Although there are several alternative fuel options for shipping, ammonia is a prominent contender. Green ammonia is produced from renewable hydrogen with no direct CO2 emissions when combusted, making it an important option to interrogate. This research uses a mixed methods approach, including analysing shipping stakeholders’ perspectives, to consider the full range of factors relating to its deployment and use. Challenges to its adoption include low fleet renewal as a result of uncertainties around being first movers, managing NOx and N2O emissions if used in a combustion engine and lack of economic incentives. Nevertheless, green ammonia's storage advantages over hydrogen, established experience of ammonia handling for the fertiliser industry and its direct emission free application in fuel cells, underpin interest in its development. The study emphasizes though that the on-ground realities of transitioning away from fossil fuels require significant developments across the entire fuel supply chain. This extends beyond considerations around ammonia’s technological viability and encompass changes needed to onboard and portside infrastructure, incentives to accelerate retrofit and fleet renewal, and recognition of risks posed by first-movers in the sector. Furthermore, with short timeliness associated with Paris targets, and anticipated rising costs of new fuel infrastructure, there is an imperative to implement mitigation policy that focuses on urgently reducing reliance on liquid fuels, while alternative fuel deployment is established at scale.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{e880e62e13c0476d96fff72de45fc102,

title = {Overconfidence in climate overshoot},

author = {Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Gaurav Ganti and Quentin Lejeune and Biqing Zhu and Peter Pfleiderer and Ruben Prütz and Philippe Ciais and Thomas L. Frölicher and Sabine Fuss and Thomas Gasser and Matthew J. Gidden and Chahan M. Kropf and Fabrice Lacroix and Robin Lamboll and Rosanne Martyr and Fabien Maussion and Jamie W. McCaughey and Malte Meinshausen and Matthias Mengel and Zebedee Nicholls and Yann Quilcaille and Benjamin Sanderson and Sonia I. Seneviratne and Jana Sillmann and Christopher J. Smith and Norman J. Steinert and Emily Theokritoff and Rachel Warren and Jeff Price and Joeri Rogelj},

doi = {10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9},

issn = {0028-0836},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-10},

journal = {Nature},

volume = {634},

number = {8033},

pages = {366–373},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2–5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.},

note = {Data availability statement: The PROVIDE v.1.2 scenario data used for Fig. 2 is available at Zenodo [69 ](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6963586). The data underlying the GFDL-ESM2M and NorESM2-LM simulations included in Fig. 3 and Extended Data Figs. 5 and 6 are available at Zenodo [70] (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11091132 and https://doi.org/10.11582/2022.00012). Data required to reproduce Extended Data Figs. 7 and 8 can be found at https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip6-dkrz/. Data required to reproduce Fig. 4 and Extended Data Figs. 3, 4, 9 and 10 are included in the code repository. Code availability statement: The analysis was performed with Python and spatial projections rely on the cartopy package. The scripts to replicate Figs. 2–5 are available at Zenodo [71] (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13208166). Funding information: The authors acknowledge support from the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmes of the European Union under grant agreement no. 101003687 (PROVIDE). G.G. acknowledges support from the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) under grant agreement no. 01LS2108D (CDR PoEt). T.G. also acknowledges support from the Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe research and innovation programmes of the European Union under grant agreement nos. 773421 (Nunataryuk) and 101056939 (RESCUE). J.S. is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) under Excellence Strategy of Germany—EXC 2037:CLICCS—Climate, Climatic Change, and Society—project no. 390683824, contribution to the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) of Universität Hamburg. The GFDL ESM2M simulations were conducted at the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre. B.S. acknowledges support from the Research Council of Norway under grant agreement no. 334811 (TRIFECTA).},

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@article{d767027fe3494540bf0d057381990ee8,

title = {Teleconnection and the Antarctic response to the Indian Ocean Dipole in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models},

author = {Arnab Sen and Pranab Deb and Adrian J. Matthews and Manoj M. Joshi},

doi = {10.1002/qj.4854},

issn = {0035-9009},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},

volume = {150},

number = {765},

pages = {5020–5036},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Tropical–Antarctic teleconnections are known to have large impacts on Antarctic climate variability at multiple timescales. Anomalous tropical convection triggers upper-level quasi-stationary Rossby waves, which propagate to high southern latitudes and impact the local environment. Here the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Antarctica was examined using daily gridded reanalysis data and the linear response theory method (LRTM) during September–November of 1980–2015. The individual contribution of the IOD over the Antarctic climate is challenging to quantify, as positive IOD events often co-occur with El Niño events. However, using the LRTM, the extratropical response due to a positive IOD was successfully extracted from the combined signal in the composite map of anomalous 250-hPa geopotential height. Applying the method to a set of models from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), significant differences were observed in the extratropical response to the IOD among the models, due to bias in the Rossby waveguide and IOD precipitation pattern. The LRTM was then applied to evaluate the extratropical response of the 850-hPa temperature, wind anomalies, and sea-ice concentration anomalies in observation data, as well as models that represented both the IOD precipitation and the extratropical waveguide adequately. The IOD induced cold southerly flow over the west of the Ross Sea, Weddell Sea, and Antarctic Peninsula, causing cold surface-temperature anomalies and the increase of sea ice, and warm northerly flow over the east of the Ross Sea and Amundsen Sea, causing warm surface-temperature anomalies and the decrease of sea ice. We recommend the LRTM as a complementary method to standard analysis of climate variability from observations and global climate models.},

note = {ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme and the climate modeling groups for producing and sharing the CMIP outputs, which can be accessed from https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/esgf-ceda/. NSIDC dataset was downloaded from https://nsidc.org/data. NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II and CMAP datasets were downloaded from SEN ET AL. NOAA PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their website at https://psl.noaa.gov. ERA5 dataset can be downloaded from https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu. The HadISST dataset was downloaded from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, from their website at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/. AS and PD were supported by Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur. We sincerely thank the anonymous reviewers whose valuable comments and suggestions helped to improve the readability of our paper.},

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@article{c5a58e94af7e410283a846d6d17459f1,

title = {Reviewing the science on 50 years of conservation: Knowledge production biases and lessons for practice},

author = {Neil M. Dawson and Brendan Coolsaet and Aditi Bhardwaj and David Brown and Bosco Lliso and Jacqueline Loos and Laura Mannocci and Adrian Martin and Malena Oliva and Unai Pascual and Pasang Sherpa and Thomas Worsdell},

doi = {10.1007/s13280-024-02049-w},

issn = {0044-7447},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {AMBIO},

volume = {53},

number = {10},

pages = {1395–1413},

publisher = {Allen Press Inc.},

abstract = {Drawing on 662 studies from 102 countries, we present a systematic review of published empirical studies about site-level biodiversity conservation initiated between 1970 and 2019. Within this sample, we find that knowledge production about the Global South is largely produced by researchers in the Global North, implying a neocolonial power dynamic. We also find evidence of bias in reported ecological outcomes linked to lack of independence in scientific studies, serving to uphold narratives about who should lead conservation. We explore relationships in the sample studies between conservation initiative types, the extent of Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ influence in governance, and reported social and ecological outcomes. Findings reveal positive ecological and social outcomes are strongly associated with higher levels of influence of Indigenous Peoples and local communities and their institutions, implying equity in conservation practice should be advanced not only for moral reasons, but because it can enhance conservation effectiveness.},

note = {Data availability statement: The dataset for this study is available at Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7688777. Acknowledgements: This study was funded by the Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB) of the French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB) under the Just Conservation project. Additional support was provided by Lille Catholic University under the AMBROISE funding call. JL acknowledges funding by the Robert-Bosch foundation for the project “Wildlife, Values, Justice”. UP acknowledges BC3’s Maria de Maeztu excellence accreditation 2023-2026 (Ref. CEX2021-001201- M) provided by MCIN/AEI/https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033.},

keywords = {},

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}

@article{e4d261e424ec499bbe5839d114d41b33,

title = {Permafrost region greenhouse gas budgets suggest a weak CO2 sink and CH4 and N2O sources, but magnitudes differ between top-down and bottom-up methods},

author = {G. Hugelius and J. Ramage and E. Burke and A. Chatterjee and T. L. Smallman and T. Aalto and A. Bastos and C. Biasi and J. G. Canadell and N. Chandra and F. Chevallier and P. Ciais and J. Chang and L. Feng and M. W. Jones and T. Kleinen and M. Kuhn and R. Lauerwald and J. Liu and E. López-Blanco and I. T. Luijkx and M. E. Marushchak and S. M. Natali and Y. Niwa and D. Olefeldt and P. I. Palmer and P. K. Patra and W. Peters and S. Potter and B. Poulter and B. M. Rogers and W. J. Riley and M. Saunois and E. A. G. Schuur and R. L. Thompson and C. Treat and A. Tsuruta and M. R. Turetsky and A. -M. Virkkala and C. Voigt and J. Watts and Q. Zhu and B. Zheng},

doi = {10.1029/2023GB007969},

issn = {0886-6236},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},

volume = {38},

number = {10},

publisher = {American Geophysical Union},

abstract = {Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present-day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling and process-based models) and top-down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land-to-atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches show a sink of CO2 in natural ecosystems (bottom-up: −29 (−709, 455), top-down: −587 (−862, −312) Tg CO2-C yr−1) and sources of CH4 (bottom-up: 38 (22, 53), top-down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH4-C yr−1) and N2O (bottom-up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top-down: 0.09 (−0.19, 0.37) Tg N2O-N yr−1). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP-100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP-20), the region is a net GHG source because CH4 dominates the total forcing. The net CO2 sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO2 emissions as well as CH4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N2O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process-based models and the compilation of process-model ensembles for CH4 and N2O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well-distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: Process-based model simulations were accessed from their archives, including the CMIP5 archive (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5) and CMIP6 archive (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6). We downloaded and extracted carbon stocks and fluxes from both the Permafrost Carbon Network (PCN) and Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) ensembles via the ORNL DAAC (Huntzinger et al., 2018; McGuire et al., 2022, respectively). Data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phases 2 and 3 (ISIMIP2a and ISIMIP2b) is available from https://www.isimip.org. CARDAMOM data is available via https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/7505. All data sources for data-driven ecosystem upscaling are provided by Ramage et al. (2024). Monthly data for all models included in the top-down inversion ensembles are available via the Bolin Centre Database (Hugelius et al., 2024). The CARDAMOM-permafrost data set can be freely downloaded from https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/7505. Funding information: European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme to the Nunataryuk. Grant Number: 773421; Swedish Research Council. Grant Number: 2022-04839; Swedish Academy of Science. Grant Number: FR-2021/0004; Atmosphere and Climate Competence Center. Grant Number: 337550; National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Grant Number: 80NM0018D0004; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Grant Number: 01LP1921A; Natural Environment Research Council. Grant Number: NE/R016518/1, NE/N018079/1},

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}

@article{38b2154ab8dd4b0b93047dc03558a38e,

title = {Exploring intersectional approaches to waste through grassroots innovations in the U.K.},

author = {Cat Acheson and Tom Hargreaves and Helen Pallett and Gill Seyfang},

doi = {10.1080/13549839.2024.2368523},

issn = {1354-9839},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {Local Environment},

volume = {29},

number = {10},

pages = {1287–1306},

publisher = {Routledge},

abstract = {Waste is an urgent global challenge. Patterns of excessive resource consumption and disposal are causing immense environmental and social damage. This paper argues that solutions to the waste crisis must be intersectional – addressing the ways in which multiple, overlapping forms of oppression are embedded in resource consumption and the generation of waste. Existing approaches to reducing waste in the U.K. and other Global North contexts have largely failed to take such an approach, but we identify grassroots innovations as a movement which may be well positioned to confront waste challenges in an intersectional way. Drawing on 19 interviews with practitioners and experts in the field of Grassroots Waste Innovations (GWIs), as well as analysis of select documents relating to key waste prevention projects, the article investigates the extent to which GWIs are taking an intersectional approach, and what this looks like. The research finds that GWIs are not generally understood in an intersectional way, but some compelling examples can be found. Framings, project design, and coalition-building emerge as key features of an intersectional approach. However, there are also some significant constraining factors. These include concerns that placing too much emphasis on multiple political causes will be off-putting to participants, lack of capacity, unhelpful funding structures, and the risk of tokenising people from marginalised groups in an attempt to increase diversity.},

note = {Funding information: The authors would like to thank Norfolk County Council for contributing funding to this research project.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{b4d16aa1dcdc4da9b9200d19aaf231f0,

title = {Delta sustainability from the Holocene to the Anthropocene and envisioning the future},

author = {Edward Anthony and Jaia Syvitski and Florin Zăinescu and Robert J. Nicholls and Kim M. Cohen and Nick Marriner and Yoshiki Saito and John Day and Philip S. J. Minderhoud and Alessandro Amorosi and Zhongyuan Chen and Christophe Morhange and Toru Tamura and Alfred Vespremeanu-Stroe and Manon Besset and François Sabatier and David Kaniewski and Vittorio Maselli},

doi = {10.1038/s41893-024-01426-3},

issn = {2398-9629},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {Nature Sustainability},

volume = {7},

number = {10},

pages = {1235–1246},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {River deltas offer numerous ecosystem services and host an estimated global population of 350 million to more than 500 million inhabitants in over 100 countries. To maintain their sustainability into the future, deltas need to withstand sea-level rise from global warming, but human pressures and diminishing sediment supplies are exacerbating their vulnerability. In this Review, we show how deltas have served as environmental incubators for societal development over the past 7,000 years, and how this tightly interlocked relationship now poses challenges to deltas globally. Without climate stabilization, the sustainability of populous low-to-mid-latitude deltas will be difficult to maintain, probably terminating the delta–human relationship that we know today.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{dcc3fd3757834ff293c2376fd18254d6,

title = {Are you thinking what I’m thinking? The role of professionals’ imaginaries in the development of smart home technologies},

author = {Vinicius Juliani Pereira and Tom Hargreaves},

doi = {10.1016/j.futures.2024.103458},

issn = {0016-3287},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {Futures},

volume = {163},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {This article draws on a co-design workshop with professionals working in the field of smart energy in the UK, to explore their imaginaries of smart homes and how these are (in)formed by their everyday ‘lay’ experiences. Smart home technologies (SHTs) are fundamentally embedded in future visions of energy transitions as they are expected to support actions to tackle climate change. Nevertheless, literature and adoption rates reveal an apparent gap between householders’ needs, expectations, and uses of SHTs, and how professional designers and developers view the same technology. Previous studies on SHTs imaginaries coming from industry and experts have focused on how users are represented in institutional visions, however, they routinely neglect the individual subjectivities of professionals producing such representations. The article presents three core results on the role of SHTs in digital energy futures: (1) it generates visual and textual conceptualizations of professionals’ imaginaries around smart domestic environments; (2) it identifies empirical insights on the formative role of professionals’ personal imaginaries for smart energy transitions; and (3) it calls for an alternative and more reflexive co-design practice to envision a fairer and more inclusive energy future.},

note = {Funding information: The authors acknowledge the support of the GECKO Innovative Training Network and the Energy Systems Catapult UK. This project received funding from the European Commission under the Horizon 2020 MSCA-ITN-2020 Innovative Training Networks program (Grant Agreement No 955422).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{a6ac7c4311d6423a8e80b9d333f01f2e,

title = {Addressing risks to mental health from climate change: A policy capacity analysis of England},

author = {John Turnpenny and Meghan Alexander},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2024.2362848},

issn = {1469-3062},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {Climate Policy},

volume = {24},

number = {9},

pages = {1211–1224},

publisher = {Earthscan},

abstract = {Climate change and mental health are inextricably linked crises that demand urgent responses within the health sector and beyond. Mental health challenges associated with climate change are wide-ranging. They include depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress resulting from increased exposure to extreme weather events, generalized climate anxiety and indirect impacts. However, there is a significant adaptation gap when it comes to addressing the mental health risks posed by climate change. Lack of capacity is frequently cited as a barrier to adaptation, yet ‘capacity’ covers many facets. This article examines the capacities of policy systems to design and implement adaptation initiatives for addressing the increasing risks to mental health posed by climate change. Focusing on England (UK) as an illustrative case study, this article deploys a policy capacity framework and draws on semi-structured interviews and policy document analysis. It identifies the ways that analytical, operational and political policy (in)capacities manifest across relevant policy areas, which include health, flood and coastal erosion risk management, spatial planning, natural environment and emergency management. Our analysis reveals that despite some strengths in analytical and political capacity, strained operational capacity is exacerbating and reinforcing adaptation gaps. We also demonstrate some of the complex interactions between different types of capacities that both enable and hamper adaptation. This article demonstrates the value of analysing policy capacity, and its potential in identifying and designing the necessary interventions to help circumvent a growing mental health crisis under climate change.},

note = {Funding information: This work was supported by the UK Economic and Social Research Council under ORA (Round 5) Grant Reference ES/S015264/1 (‘Understanding Climate adaptation policy lock-ins’). Rights Retention Statement: For the purpose of open access, the author(s) has applied a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{72cd041aa7f8432cb0c68a4299e23f6f,

title = {Constraining the trend in the ocean CO2 sink during 2000–2022},

author = {Nicolas Mayot and Erik T. Buitenhuis and Rebecca M. Wright and Judith Hauck and Dorothee C. E. Bakker and Corinne Le Quéré},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-024-52641-7},

issn = {2041-1723},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-09-28},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {15},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {The ocean will ultimately store most of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by human activities. Despite its importance, estimates of the 2000−2022 trend in the ocean CO2 sink differ by a factor of two between observation-based products and process-based models. Here we address this discrepancy using a hybrid approach that preserves the consistency of known processes but constrains the outcome using observations. We show that the hybrid approach reproduces the stagnation of the ocean CO2 sink in the 1990s and its reinvigoration in the 2000s suggested by observation-based products and matches their amplitude. It suggests that process-based models underestimate the amplitude of the decadal variability in the ocean CO2 sink, but that observation-based products on average overestimate the decadal trend in the 2010s. The hybrid approach constrains the 2000−2022 trend in the ocean CO2 sink to 0.42 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1 decade−1, and by inference the total land CO2 sink to 0.28 ± 0.13 Pg C yr−1 decade−1.},

note = {Data available here: https://osf.io/2kzps/?view_only=6ad809f1887342a0a19907e40a33e7cf},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{65b7ddc499854e62b94ce7891a6205c0,

title = {Innovation in coastal governance: management and expectations of the UK’s first sandscaping scheme},

author = {Irene Lorenzoni and Sophie A. Day and Martin Mahony and Trevor J. Tolhurst and Rosalind H. Bark},

doi = {10.1007/s10113-024-02248-x},

issn = {1436-3798},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-09-01},

journal = {Regional Environmental Change},

volume = {24},

number = {3},

publisher = {Springer},

abstract = {Many coastal places around the UK face change, with impacts on communities, livelihoods, and landscapes. A tidal surge in 2013 caused significant erosion and flooding on the east coast of England (UK). This was the catalyst for the innovative Bacton to Walcott Coastal Management Scheme, also known as the Sandscaping Scheme, implemented in summer 2019. It is a one-off, large-scale beach nourishment scheme with a design prediction of 15–20 years functional life, the first of its kind in the UK and worldwide outside of the Netherlands. Through stakeholder interviews and a household questionnaire survey, this paper examines the institutional and political challenges, expectations, and hopes associated with this Scheme just before its implementation. The findings indicate that a combination of factors enabled technical and institutional experimentation and innovation at this location: critical erosion risk at a site of strategic infrastructure adjacent to two highly vulnerable villages, extensive stakeholder collaboration across scales, resolute leadership, and recognition of co-benefits. Although most interviewees and local residents foresaw significant benefit from the Scheme—not least respite from the deep anxiety caused by the threat of flooding and erosion risk—tensions were expressed around uncertainty beyond the Scheme’s lifetime and the need to start effective conversations about future adaptation options for the area. This study provides reflections for similar nature-based coastal management schemes elsewhere. It highlights the fundamental challenges facing the governance of natural and social coastal systems for adapting to current and future coastal change and the importance of articulating local and sometimes intangible understandings and expectations of adaptive coastal management interventions.},

note = {Funding information: This study was funded and supported by the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1fb48a7f583a408a80e4dc8a32238118,

title = {Challenges to anticipatory coastal adaptation for transformative nature-based solutions},

author = {Isabel Cotton and Johanna Forster and Irene Lorenzoni and Trevor J. Tolhurst},

doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102893},

issn = {0959-3780},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-09-01},

journal = {Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions},

volume = {88},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Much of England’s coastline is underprepared for adapting to long-term coastal change, with many coastal areas moving from ‘hold the line’ to managed realignment as this century progresses. This paper offers a unique case study of a frontage experiencing this transition. It explores the perspectives of Bacton and Walcott residents and coastal policymakers on managing the risk of coastal change for the Bacton-Walcott frontage on the Norfolk coast (UK), after the projected lifetime of a nature-based solution (NBS), known as sandscaping. Drawing upon survey and interview data, this research finds local residents have an increased sense of security of future coastal change through the perceived importance of the nearby Bacton Gas Terminal (currently supplying up to a third of the UK’s gas supply), and the protection afforded to it by sandscaping. For policymakers, sandscaping has bought time to prepare for managed realignment, whereas for residents, sandscaping has bought time to postpone it. There is a risk of maladaptation if reduced concern of future erosion affects willingness to engage in coastal adaptation in the present. This case study highlights the multiple temporal and spatial interests in coastal management, where decision-making at a local level has national-scale implications for domestic energy supply, and where novel nature-based solutions may bring additional uncertainty and complexity to building social resilience. It provides insights on the challenges of anticipatory adaptation, which is of relevance to other coastal areas looking to mitigate climate impacts and better prepare against future risk.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2cc49cf2eada445b82c54ab0b79a8085,

title = {A systematic review of the impact of post-harvest aquatic food processing technology on gender equality and social justice},

author = {Nitya Rao and Lee Hooper and Heather Gray and Natasha Grist and Johanna Forster and Julie Bremner and Ghezal Sabir and Matthew Heaton and Nisha Marwaha and Sudarshan Thakur and Abraham Wanyama and Liangzi Zhang},

url = {https://www.iifet2024.org/},

doi = {10.1038/s43016-024-01034-6},

issn = {2662-1355},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-09-01},

journal = {Nature Food},

volume = {5},

number = {9},

pages = {731–741},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Post-harvest practices and technologies are key to reducing global aquatic harvest loss. The lives of post-harvest fisheries workers, over half of them women, are deeply affected by these technologies, but their equity and equality outcomes are poorly understood. This systematic review synthesizes evidence of post-harvest aquatic food processing technology outcomes, showing that persistent inequalities in social structure and norms disadvantage women across a range of technologies, both traditional and improved, especially regarding control over resources. We found that improved technologies bring enhanced productivity and possibly income for workers, yet contracts are often precarious due to pre-existing social inequities. While power and control of resources is more unequal in factory settings, it is not necessarily equal in traditional contexts either, despite offering greater flexibility. More rigorous comparative research, including voices of diverse actors, is key to understanding the impacts of different technologies on gender equality and social justice and inform policymaking.},

note = {Data availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request. The DOIs of the studies included in the systematic review are presented in Supplementary Table 1. Funding information: This Review received partial funding from the Economic and Social Research Council grant ES/R010404/1 to the project Coastal Transformations and Fisher Wellbeing.; IIFET 2024 Penang : Aquatic food systems in the blue economy ; Conference date: 15-07-2024 Through 19-07-2024},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{af2358d62d684a30adc05450e5a93bac,

title = {Environmental assessment of cement production with added graphene},

author = {Raphael Tarpani and Akilu Yunusa-Kaltungo and Meini Su and Patrick Manu and Clara Cheung and Michael Watson and Paul Ladislaus and Alejandro Gallego Schmid},

doi = {10.1016/j.cesys.2024.100206},

issn = {2666-7894},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-09-01},

journal = {Cleaner Environmental Systems},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Cement production significantly contributes to climate change, necessitating alternatives to mitigate the environmental impacts of this essential construction material. This study evaluates 18 environmental impacts of producing Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) and Graphene (Gr) using life cycle assessment (LCA). Additionally, we explore whether mixing OPC and Gr can lower the life cycle environmental impacts of the final product (OPCGr). Our results show that OPC production in the United Kingdom generates 775 kg CO2 eq./t, 57% only from geogenic CO2 emissions. Gr production via electrochemical exfoliation in Australia results in 121,000-143,000 kg CO2 eq./t, primarily due to electricity generation. Using hydro and nuclear power (e.g., in Brazil and France) can sharply reduce these impacts (global warming potential in the range of 11,000-35,000 kg CO2 eq./t). Adding 0.02 wt% of Gr in powder form (Grpowder) from Australia to the OPC and assuming a 16.5% reduction in its usage due to increased strength, results in 674 kg CO2 eq./t OPCGr (a 13% reduction). However, some impact categories like marine eutrophication and freshwater ecotoxicity potentials increase sharply (> 28%). Using Grpowder from Brazil and France further reduces the OPCGr global warming potential and the overall environmental footprint.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{222384bbfb544b75895689106cabe68b,

title = {Effects of an increased financial incentive on follow-up in an online, automated smoking cessation trial: A randomised controlled Study Within a Trial (SWAT)},

author = {Juliet High and Kelly Grant and Aimie Hope and Lee Shepstone and Claire West and Antony Colles and Felix Naughton},

doi = {10.1093/ntr/ntae068},

issn = {1462-2203},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-09-01},

journal = {Nicotine and Tobacco Research},

volume = {26},

number = {9},

pages = {1259–1263},

publisher = {Oxford University Press},

abstract = {Introduction: Poor retention in clinical trials can impact on statistical power, reliability, validity, and generalizability of findings and is a particular challenge in smoking cessation studies. In online trials with automated follow-up mechanisms, poor response also increases the resource need for manual follow-up. This study compared two financial incentives on response rates at 6 months follow up, in an online, automated smoking cessation feasibility trial of a cessation smartphone app (Quit Sense). Aims and Methods: A study within a trial (SWAT), embedded within a host randomized controlled trial. Host trial participants were randomized 1:1 to receive either a £10 or £20 voucher incentive, for completing the 6-month questionnaire. Stratification for randomization to the SWAT was by minimization to ensure an even split of host trial arm participants and by 6-week response rate. Outcome measures were: Questionnaire completion rate, time to completion, number of completers requiring manual follow-up, and completeness of responses. Results: Two hundred and four participants were randomized to the SWAT. The £20 and £10 incentives did not differ in completion rate at 6 months (79% vs. 74%; p = .362) but did reduce the proportion of participants requiring manual follow-up (46% vs. 62%; p = .018) and the median completion time (7 days vs. 15 days; p = .008). Measure response completeness rates were higher among £20 incentive participants, though differences were small for the host trial’s primary smoking outcome. Conclusions: Benefits to using relatively modest increases in incentive for online smoking cessation trials include more rapid completion of follow-up questionnaires and reduced manual follow-up.},

note = {Funding information: This study is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research Programme (17/92/31). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{f7db0252b99a4609ad66e956b7113ce9,

title = {Quantifying future changes of flood hazards within the Broadland catchment in the UK},

author = {Ross Gudde and Yi He and Ulysse Pasquier and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Ciar Noble and Qianyu Zha},

doi = {10.1007/s11069-024-06590-5},

issn = {0921-030X},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-09-01},

journal = {Natural Hazards},

volume = {120},

number = {11},

pages = {9893–9915},

publisher = {Springer},

abstract = {Flooding represents the greatest natural threat to the UK, presenting severe risk to populations along coastlines and floodplains through extreme tidal surge and hydrometeorological events. Climate change is projected to significantly elevate flood risk through increased severity and frequency of occurrences, which will be exacerbated by external drivers of risk such as property development and population growth throughout floodplains. This investigation explores the entire flood hazard modelling chain, utilising the nonparametric bias correction of UKCP18 regional climate projections, the distributed HBV-TYN hydrological model and HEC-RAS hydraulic model to assess future manifestation of flood hazard within the Broadland Catchment, UK. When assessing the independent impact of extreme river discharge and storm surge events as well as the impact of a compound event of the two along a high emission scenario, exponential increases in hazard extent over time were observed. The flood extent increases from 197 km2 in 1990 to 200 km2 in 2030, and 208 km2 in 2070. In parallel, exponential population exposure increases were found from 13,917 (1990) to 14,088 (2030) to 18,785 (2070). This methodology could see integration into policy-based flood risk management by use of the developed hazard modelling tool for future planning and suitability of existing infrastructure at a catchment scale.},

note = {Funding Information: Author YH has received research support from a NERC funded project: OpenCLIM (Open CLimate Impacts Modelling framework) (NE/T013931/1). Author NF has received research support from the Faculty of Science of the UEA and Amar-Franses and Foster-Jenkins Trust.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}