Tyndall Centre Journal Articles

@article{97f954dabdbc488fb24ccad61dd7e40f,

title = {Reinterpreting scaling as synchronising and sequencing: A case study of food system innovation in eastern India},

author = {Costanza Conti and Prashant Parida and Andy Hall and Nitya Rao and Girigan Gopi and E. D. I. Oliver King and Soumya Swaminathan},

doi = {10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104831},

issn = {0308-521X},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-08-01},

journal = {Agricultural Systems},

volume = {237},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Context: While early debates on scaling focused on widespread technology adoption on farm, the food system transformation agenda has reframed scaling as a systemic process requiring interconnected changes at the system level. Yet, what enables scaling processes to succeed, going beyond pilot projects, remains unclear. Objective: This case study revisits how scaling of sustainable innovation can occur, shedding light both on the features of a scaling process that can trigger food system transformation, and the roles organisations can play in supporting such scaling. The case explores these questions by examining efforts of the M. S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) to reintroduce and expand production and consumption of millets in Odisha, India. Methods: We conduct a purposive search for relevant information, including published and unpublished MSSRF documents, academic and technical literature, and key informant interviews. Interviews were conducted with custodian farmers, rural consumers, MSSRF staff with direct knowledge of historical interventions, government advisors, and policymakers. The data was organised historically to showcase the evolution of the scaling process. Results and Conclusions: The case study reveals how the scaling process happened across different but interconnected spheres —the local sphere, the networks, relationships and intermediation sphere, and the system sphere. Within each sphere, MSSRF tackled several elements: technologies, infrastructure, behaviours and values, Research & Development (R&D) trajectories, policies and institutions, and political economy. Once these elements had undergone change in one sphere, the organisation could move to operating in the next sphere. In the case of MSSRF, at the local sphere, this meant building technologies and infrastructure through participatory R&D while setting up community institutions to help behavioural shifts. The initial credibility built for the innovation at the local sphere allowed the organisation to move to the next – with much broader visibility and expansion of technology, infrastructure, R&D, community institutions as well as policy interest. This interest and expansion once again led to changes in the system sphere, where the innovation was anchored at the state level through the set-up of an ad-hoc innovation-mission, further bolstering the changes in the multiple elements. This finding highlights an important feature of scaling: both synchronised (i.e. happening at the same time) and sequenced (i.e. happening in a temporally coordinated manner) changes are critical for interventions to move beyond the local sphere towards the system sphere. Significance: The paper offers a novel conceptual framework (the 3S framework) for understanding scaling as a process that requires both synchronisation across multiple system scales and strategic sequencing over time. Without synchronisation and sequencing, “pilots never fail but never scale”, as they find themselves unable to couple acceptability and change at the local level, with sustained engagement and efforts to “move up” to the next spheres, which would ultimately achieve scaling. The paper then points to the importance of multifunctional organisations capable of operating across different scales and successfully performing a synchronisation and sequencing function, scaling innovation and moving towards the broader transformation of the food system.},

note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request.},

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}

@article{d1090465c5e0484ca9c3a290de67d901,

title = {Developing a cloud-based service offering actionable coastal climate risk and adaptation data across Europe},

author = {Arjen P. Luijendijk and Etienne Kras and Luis Rodriguez Galvez and Floris Calkoen and Charalampos Skoulikaris and Eva Loukogeorgaki and Remi Thieblemont and Vincent Bascoul and Susano Romao and Jacinta Hamley and Paul Sayers and Robert Nicholls and Angelique Melet and Goneri Cozannet},

doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100678},

issn = {2405-8807},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-08-01},

journal = {Climate Services},

volume = {43},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Coastal zones face increasing climate-driven hazards such as sea-level rise, storm surges, flooding and erosion, threatening infrastructure and ecosystems. Addressing the need for actionable climate information in adaptation planning, we developed an integrated Coastal Climate Core Services platform for Europe that consolidates sea-level projections, flood and erosion maps, exposure data, damage estimates, and adaptation options into a unified, cloud-based service. Co-designed with national authorities, municipal planners, and infrastructure owners, the platform offers an interactive web viewer for non-experts and a collaborative coding environment for advanced users. It delivers localized, FAIR(Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable)-compliant data supporting evidence-based adaptation planning and compliance with European frameworks. By bridging scientific data and operational climate services, this platform (https://platform.coclicoservices.eu) enhances climate resilience and informs strategic coastal risk management across Europe and shows how a broad-scale coastal climate service can be delivered.},

note = {Data availability: EDITO: https://coclico.lab.dive.edito.eu (CoCliCo (Original data))},

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}

@article{f696e5bda42047f5acbec5a4bdad865b,

title = {Canada’s 2023 wildfire smoke caused a 2.8 percent drop in solar power generation, costing two billion dollars},

author = {Iulian-Alin Roșu and Matthew W. Jones and Manolis Grillakis and Manolis P. Petrakis and Matthew Kasoar and Rafaila-Nikola Mourgela and Lampros Gkounelas and Apostolos Voulgarakis},

doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03860-x},

issn = {2662-4435},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-28},

journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},

publisher = {Nature Research},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{75f675d0e7784fd9af9a4f1b50e357f8,

title = {MRBA60: Long-term consistent global burned area dataset from Sentinel-3 and MODIS products},

author = {Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez and Carlota Segura-Garcia and Marco Turco and Amin Khairoun and M. Lucrecia Pettinari and Erika Solano-Romero and Mariano García and Patricia Oliva and Matthew W. Jones and Emilio Chuvieco},

doi = {10.1038/s41597-026-07959-w},

issn = {2052-4463},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-25},

journal = {Scientific Data},

publisher = {Nature Research},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{821db28de28144eaa5b3082e60700f72,

title = {Mapping the global distribution of coastal World Heritage Sites: Glo-CoH, a new Global Coastal Heritage dataset},

author = {David Bescoby and Joanne Clarke and Chukwuma Okolie and Robert J. Nicholls and Nicholas P. Simpson and Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Michalis Ioannis Vousdoukas},

doi = {10.1038/s41597-026-07758-3},

issn = {2052-4463},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-24},

journal = {Scientific Data},

volume = {13},

number = {1},

publisher = {Nature Research},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{9008f76903f546fe8535516aa70ac090,

title = {Fire weather waves drive extreme fires globally},

author = {Cong Yin and John T. Abatzoglou and Piyush Jain and Mojtaba Sadegh and Mike D. Flannigan and Matthew W. Jones},

doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03858-5},

issn = {2662-4435},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-23},

journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},

publisher = {Nature Research},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{5842de23983e4c738db6fc5c070f3e7e,

title = {Microfoundations of Environmental Strategy: How Support and Climate Influence Proximal vs. Distal Employee Green Behaviours},

author = {Duncan Maguire and George Michaelides and Olga Tregaskis},

doi = {10.1002/bse.71267},

issn = {0964-4733},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-16},

journal = {Business Strategy and the Environment},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Employee green behaviour (EGB) is essential for advancing organizational sustainability, yet the role of emotional support mechanisms in fostering different types of EGB remains underexamined. This study examines how perceived organizational support (POS), perceived supervisory support (PSS), and affective commitment interact with a green organizational climate to predict EGB. Distinguishing between proximal (low-complexity) and distal (high-complexity) EGB led to novel understandings of predictive social exchange mechanisms. Using survey data from 408 employees in the UK and USA, results indicate that POS primarily predicts distal EGB, while PSS relates more closely to proximal EGB. Affective commitment emerges as an important mediator for the effects of POS and PSS. Critically, green organizational climate strengthens these relationships, particularly for distal behaviours. These findings highlight the importance of combining supportive workplace relationships with pro-environmental norms to encourage more meaningful sustainability behaviours in employees. This research also informs practical interventions that balance climate initiatives with support in the workplace.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ba5ccbead83d4af5a122e38b3b09da19,

title = {Can Reminders Promote Regular Pro-Environmental Behavior? Experimental Evidence from Peru},

author = {Hanna Fuhrmann-Riebel and Ben D'Exelle and Kristian Lopez Vargas and Sebastian Tonke and Arjan Verschoor},

issn = {0305-750X},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-01},

journal = {World Development},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Tackling environmental pollution requires a permanent change in regular, repeated behavior of households. Bringing about change in such behavior may require interventions that are not limited to a single point in time, yet little evidence exists on how frequently we need to target households to initiate behavioral change and to form new habits in regular pro-environmental behavior. To fill this gap, we investigate the impact of mobile text reminders on households’ recycling behavior in urban Peru, by randomly varying the frequency of reminders over a nine-week treatment period. We find that reminders increase both the likelihood that households start to recycle, and the frequency of recycling among households that already recycled before the intervention. The effects are stronger if reminders are repeated over a longer period. Our findings suggest that low-cost mobile text reminders can support repeated pro environmental behavior, and that some repetition may be needed to maximize their effectiveness.},

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}

@article{f514ba8fb4c6492b98287dea3835ccff,

title = {The effect of weather on unscheduled healthcare utilisation for mental health conditions 1 in England, 2014–2022.},

author = {Richard Elson and Julii Brainard and Natalia R. Jones and Alex J. Elliot and Iain R. Lake},

doi = {10.3389/fpsyt.2026.1835204},

issn = {1664-0640},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-06-30},

journal = {Frontiers in Psychiatry},

publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},

abstract = {Background: Weather conditions have been associated with adverse mental health outcomes, and concern about climate change has increased interest in these relationships. However, much of the existing literature focuses on extreme weather events such as heatwaves or acute clinical outcomes such as suicide. There is less research on the population-level variations in mental health–related healthcare utilisation across the full range of weather conditions. Objective: To examine associations between daily weather conditions and mental health–related healthcare contacts in England using large-scale national surveillance data. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study across nine English regions from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2022. Outcomes were daily counts of unscheduled mental health–related contacts to emergency departments (EDs), general practice out-of-hours (GP OOH), and the NHS 111 telephone advice service. Weather exposures were mean daily temperature (°C), hours of full sunshine, and total daily rainfall (mm). Associations were estimated using distributed lag non-linear models at regional level and synthesised using two-stage multivariate meta-analysis, adjusting for seasonality, long-term trends, day of week, public holidays, and population size. Results: Unscheduled mental health–related healthcare contacts showed modest but consistent associations with temperature and sunshine. Across services, relative risks were higher at increasing temperatures up to approximately 18 °C and on days with fewer hours of sunshine. Sunshine showed the most consistent pattern, with increased healthcare utilisation on days with low sunshine across all services. Rainfall was not consistently associated with healthcare contacts. Age-stratified analyses indicated a U-shaped association between temperature and ED attendances among adults aged over 64 years, with higher utilisation during both colder and warmer conditions. Overall variations in healthcare demand were modest, generally within ±10–20% of typical daily levels. Conclusion: In England, short-term variations in temperature and sunshine are associated with changes in unscheduled mental health–related healthcare utilisation, while rainfall shows little consistent effect. Although effect sizes were modest, these findings have implications for understanding weather-related fluctuations in healthcare demand and for planning mental health services under current and future climate conditions.},

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@article{a29de1ca20174aca8c92431bf7e849cb,

title = {Beyond the “Big 5”: diversifying seafood preferences in South West England},

author = {Ellen Mcharg and Gaetano Grilli and Tiziana Luisetti and Rosalind H. Bark and Silvia Ferrini},

doi = {10.1108/BFJ-08-2025-1054},

issn = {0007-070X},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-06-23},

journal = {British Food Journal},

volume = {128},

number = {13},

pages = {602–625},

publisher = {Emerald Publishing},

abstract = {Purpose: Seafood consumption can support sustainable dietary transitions by reducing reliance on other animal proteins and boosting local food production. Despite UK health advice to “eat two portions of fish per week, including one oily fish”, UK seafood consumption remains low and focuses on mostly imported “Big 5” species (salmon, cod, haddock, tuna and prawns), overlooking many locally caught small oily species (e.g. mackerel, herring and pilchard). To improve food security and public health while reducing the environmental impact of seafood, it is necessary to identify effective ways to encourage local, sustainable seafood consumption, diversifying the species eaten. Design/methodology/approach: Through an online discrete choice experiment in South West England, preferences for fish species, origin, format, sustainability messaging and price were assessed. A split-sample design explored the role of the UK healthy diet guidance, presenting information “nudges” from the NHS or respondent’s supermarket. Findings: The results confirm strong, statistically significant preferences for salmon and cod, which were not influenced by health guidance. Seafood format preferences varied by species, especially for breaded products, suggesting opportunities to promote small oily fish consumption in more desirable formats. Sustainability messages were favoured over none, though their impact on choices was marginal. Originality/value: This study expands the existing literature by systematically exploring preferences and trade-offs across a diverse range of species, going beyond the “Big 5” to assess opportunities and barriers to shift consumption towards small oily fish. In doing so, we consolidate previously fragmented evidence on UK seafood preferences and offer policy-relevant insights for food and health strategies, and the processing and marketing of sustainable seafood.},

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@article{304b68cdb94344fc9be95ad265395463,

title = {Escalating Hydroclimatic Extremes and Volatility in the UK Under 2°C and 4°C Warming},

author = {Yi He and Desmond Manful and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Yingchun Huang and Ben Smith and Qianyu Zha},

doi = {10.1029/2025EF007156},

issn = {2328-4277},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-06-17},

journal = {Earth's Future},

volume = {14},

number = {6},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Hydrological extremes, including both floods and droughts, are projected to intensify under global warming, yet their joint evolution and variability across temperate catchments remain underexplored. This study uses bias-corrected regional climate projections from the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) and a distributed HBV-TYN hydrological model to simulate future river flows across 698 UK catchments under 2 °C and 4 °C global warming scenarios. Compared to previous UK-wide assessments, this study provides the most extensive high-resolution, bias-corrected, ensemble-based analysis of river flow responses under warming-level-specific timeframes. A comprehensive suite of hydrometeorological metrics is applied, including the maximum number of consecutive dry days, extreme precipitation totals, high and low flow percentiles, flood return levels, and the Standardised Precipitation and Streamflow Indices. Results reveal a regionally divergent intensification of extremes of extremes: (1) precipitation extremes intensify under warming, with daily and multi-day rainfall maxima increasing in western and northern regions, while dry spells lengthen in the south and east; and (2) high flows and flood magnitudes increase especially in western and northern regions, while persistent low flows and drought frequency intensify in the south and east. Projections also indicate a growing incidence of hydroclimatic whiplash, abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes, posing challenges for water resources management. This is the first national-scale UK study to quantify hydrological whiplash across a full climate ensemble. These findings highlight the urgent need for regionally tailored, climate-resilient water management strategies to address the compounding risks of flooding, drought, and increased hydroclimatic volatility under future warming.},

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@article{abff7d5e6fd24548928b04df5318aad6,

title = {Food Systems Literacy in Indigenous Health and Nutrition},

author = {Nitya Rao and Helene Binesse},

issn = {2662-1355},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-06-13},

journal = {Nature Food},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Indigenous and traditional knowledge and practices have been acknowledged as offering potential solutions to the triple crises of climate change, biodiversity loss and poor health and nutrition. Yet, top-down, medicalised approaches dominate health and nutrition education and practice. Based on 39 peer-reviewed studies, this systematic review explores why this is the case and how it might change by strengthening food systems literacy – the knowledge, skills and communicative practices through which people engage with food systems. It also examines the role of different worldviews and forms of knowledge production to highlight the challenges and good practices embedded in selected interventions with Indigenous communities. The studies included here encompass various communicative and learning practices, institutions and interventions around health and nutrition with Indigenous communities across regions. They offer insights into how culturally grounded, participatory approaches can advance food systems literacy and support pathways towards more sustainable, resilient, equitable and healthier food systems.},

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@article{6ef2b2dce5084f8c96b3a9b46b2fc511,

title = {Unpacking adaptation lock-ins: Explaining the persistence of the adaptation gap},

author = {Nicolas W. Jager and Meghan Alexander and Lisanne Groen and Dave Huitema and Bernd Siebenhuner and Julie P. King and John Turnpenny and Tim Rayner and Jean Huge and Torsten Grothmann},

doi = {10.1016/j.esg.2026.100320},

issn = {2589-8116},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-06-01},

journal = {Earth System Governance},

volume = {28},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Climate change adaptation is increasingly outpaced by accelerating climate risks, resulting in a persistent and widening adaptation gap. Many current interventions remain incremental and insufficient, failing to address the scale of transformation required. We argue that this shortfall is best understood through the concept of adaptation lock-ins—systemic constraints that both cause and result from maladaptation. These lock-ins generate self-reinforcing dynamics that trap institutions and policy systems in established trajectories, hindering more ambitious and forward-looking action. In this paper, we explore how a deeper understanding of lock-ins can help explain enduring adaptation deficits and structural barriers to sustainable change. We also discuss methodological approaches to identifying lock-in mechanisms and show how such insights can be mobilized to inform deliberate ‘unlocking’ strategies that enable more equitable and transformative adaptation pathways and sustainability transformations.},

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@article{aba7dc5362104192be46783a7a956f0b,

title = {Global Drivers of Phytoplankton Phenology Trends},

author = {Joe K. Guest and Marie Fanny Racault and Corinne Le Quéré},

doi = {10.1111/gcb.70955},

issn = {1354-1013},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-06-01},

journal = {Global Change Biology},

volume = {32},

number = {6},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Phytoplankton are key contributors to global primary production and serve as sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems. Changes in phytoplankton phenology, and in particular the onset, termination, and duration of their growing period, have important implications for higher trophic levels that feed on them. Several local studies have provided evidence linking phenological shifts to climate change. However, global analyses have so far relied on time-series observations of surface chlorophyll covering less than two decades, making it difficult to separate trends from variability and establish the coherence of underlying drivers at the global level. Here we use the OC-CCIv5 satellite-derived observations harmonised across satellite sensors and the NEMO-PlankTOM12 global ocean biogeochemical model to revisit recent trends in phytoplankton phenology and identify their global drivers during the 1998–2020 period. Using statistical analysis to separate and control for covariance among underlying drivers, we show that SST warming trends are clearly associated with earlier initiation, later termination, and longer duration of the phytoplankton growing season. In contrast, changes in MLD, SST variability, and chlorophyll are associated with shifts in initiation and termination in the same direction, such that both boundaries move in parallel, partly cancelling their effect on duration. The PlankTOM12 model successfully reproduces most of the observed patterns in phenology and their association with the underlying drivers, providing evidence of the mechanistic relationships, and helping to ascertain the global significance of the drivers. Our findings suggest that trends towards earlier initiation, later termination, and longer duration of phytoplankton growing periods are likely associated with climate change, and may therefore persist in the near future under continued global warming.},

note = {Publisher Copyright: © 2026 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.},

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@article{575bc724bcee458480375243d462fb7c,

title = {Human ignitions dominate the fire regimes of the Brazilian Cerrado},

author = {Carlota Segura-Garcia and Thomas A. J. Janssen and Renata Libonati and Lucas S. Menezes and Guilherme Mataveli and Sander Veraverbeke and Matthew W. Jones and Imma Oliveras Menor},

doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03633-6},

issn = {2662-4435},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-05-22},

journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},

publisher = {Nature Research},

abstract = {Before human settlement, lightning was the predominant ignition source shaping the expansion of fire-adapted savannas and grasslands such as the Cerrado. However, humans have since altered ignition frequency, timing and intensity of fires, further influencing these ecosystems. Even though humans are considered the main cause of fires in the tropics, no study has quantitatively disentangled the relative contributions of lightning and human ignitions across the entire Cerrado. Here, we present a region-wide assessment of lightning and human-caused fire regimes, linking individual fire events and lightning occurrence through an attribution algorithm. We show that humans account for nearly 90% of ignitions, effectively redefining the natural fire regime of the Cerrado. Lightning ignitions peak during the dry-to-wet transition, whereas humans ignite fires throughout the dry season extending its duration threefold. Further, humans disproportionately drive fires with extreme behaviour, which have outsized ecological impacts, by igniting fires about ten times larger or two times more intense than lightning. These findings highlight the dominant role of humans in shaping Cerrado fire regimes, with profound implications for biodiversity conservation, ecosystem resilience and carbon cycling in tropical savannas, stressing the need for fire management policies that differentiate between traditional, prescribed and agricultural ignitions.},

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@article{1106dbe185674a588cbc2c4b203133be,

title = {Widespread peat carbon losses driven by the 2025 Scottish megafire},

author = {Johanna Schoenecker and Martin J. Baur and Juliana Kohli and Sarah Baker and Matthew Jones and Sander Veraverbeke and Alexandra G. Konings and Adam F. A. Pellegrini},

doi = {10.1038/s41561-026-01994-3},

issn = {1752-0894},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-05-20},

journal = {Nature Geoscience},

volume = {19},

number = {7},

pages = {763–766},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Drier and warmer climates have allowed fires to increasingly burn carbon-dense peatland ecosystems. Here we document a 2025 Scottish megafire in the UK, which spread rapidly and burned severely across peatlands in Scotland with anomalously low soil moisture, emitting 38,600 MgC (25,200–119,000 MgC). Peat combustion contributed nearly 85% of total emissions, suggesting drier climates increase fire emissions from peat, which can require decades to centuries to recover.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{d00e1c1a50db455fa1e6a346d8f5288c,

title = {The impact of extreme weather events on primary healthcare facilities in Vietnam: results from a cross-sectional survey of 128 commune health centers affected by Super Typhoon Yagi (2024)},

author = {Do Thi Hanh Trang and Hoang Van Minh and Tran Thi Tuyet Hanh and Le Thi Thanh Huong and Jo-Anne Geere and Brahim Herbane and Paul Hutchings and Mike Vanderes and Duong Duc Thien and Do Manh Cuong and Nguyen Huy Minh and Nguyen Quynh Anh and Ho Thi Tu and Paul Hunter},

doi = {10.21037/jphe},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-05-19},

journal = {Journal of Public Health and Emergency},

volume = {10},

abstract = {Background: Health system resilience is crucial for minimizing mortality and morbidity during emergencies and extreme weather events (EWEs). Vietnam is among the countries with the highest disaster risk globally. However, evidence on the immediate impacts of EWEs on grassroots primary healthcare facilities remains limited. This study aimed to investigate the immediate impacts of super Typhoon Yagi (7-9 September 2024) on various aspects of commune health centers (CHCs) across the 10 most severely affected provinces in northern Vietnam. Methods: A cross-sectional survey using a structured, self-administered questionnaire was conducted in December 2024 with 128 CHCs most severely affected, accounted for 6.9% of the total CHCs in the 10 selected provinces. The survey assessed damage to infrastructure, the healthcare workforce capacity, and service delivery within one-week following Typhoon Yagi. Results: Typhoon Yagi caused widespread infrastructure damage, with 27.3% to 52.3% of CHCs reporting physical impacts across service areas. Severe damage or destruction was most frequent in utility systems, including clean water tanks (10.8%) and lighting (14.0%). One-quarter (25.8%) of CHCs reported staff shortages due to absenteeism, while 51.4% noted mental health impacts on workers. Service delivery was significantly hampered: 40.6% of CHCs lost electricity and 39.8% experienced complete communication failure. Consequently, about a half of the facilities reported interruptions in important curative services, and 13.4% saw severe or complete disruption of vaccination services. There were strong associations between infrastructure damage and impacts on key clinical and preventive services and reduced staff presence. Conclusions: While the study focuses on an extreme scenario by sampling the most severely impacted CHCs, the findings highlight acute vulnerabilities in CHC infrastructure and workforce stability, which resulted in critically limited service delivery under maximum stress. These results reflect localized gaps in disaster preparedness rather than nationwide deficiencies; however, they serve as a critical “stress test” for the primary healthcare system. Strengthening resilience must be prioritized, particularly in high-risk regions, to ensure service continuity amidst Vietnam’s ongoing administrative restructuring.},

note = {Data Sharing Statement: Available at https://jphe.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/jphe-2026-1-00},

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}

@article{999a46d2b156464f8bfe0aac553863d5,

title = {International cooperation and conflict in a social-ecological system: study of mountain gorillas as a common pool resource},

author = {Urmila Basu Mallick and Anna Behm Masozera and Fidele Ruzigandekwe and Taye Teferi and Christopher Koliba and Luke Sandford and Adrian Martin},

doi = {10.1111/csp2.70288},

issn = {2578-4854},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-05-18},

journal = {Conservation Science and Practice},

volume = {8},

number = {6},

pages = {1–16},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {The endangered mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei) is a subspecies of the eastern gorilla dependent on habitat shared by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Rwanda, and Republic of Uganda, and is considered here as a common pool resource. The intergovernmental framework established by Treaty as the Greater Virunga Transboundary Collaboration (GVTC) has exhibited adaptability and resilience in a sustained medium-level conflict context but is yet to achieve high-level cooperation for gorilla conservation. A combined Institutional Analysis and Development and Social-Ecological Systems framework analysis illuminates changes to key variables influencing cooperation over time, notably the increased number and value of habituated mountain gorilla groups, and a growing number of actors and associated interests. Our findings highlight that operational rules and norms for cooperation did not change as expected over time in response to changes to other variables in the social-ecological system. The forthcoming species conservation action planning process would benefit from (a) formal affirmation and/or renegotiation of discrete agreements related to operational rules and norms, facilitated by the GVTC, (b) the re-creation of a broad coalition of networked actors for collaborative and long-term mountain gorilla conservation, and (c) agreed social performance measures relevant for the resource system.},

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@article{bb6d57a27ce24888b6652d6680fbbd6b,

title = {Subsidence more than doubles sea-level rise today along densely populated coasts},

author = {Julius Oelsmann and Robert J. Nicholls and Daniel Lincke and Marta Marcos and Manoochehr Shirzaei and Laura Sánchez and Leonard Ohenhen and Denise Dettmering and Jochen Hinkel and Benjamin P. Horton and Florian Seitz},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-72293-z},

issn = {2041-1723},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-05-16},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {17},

number = {1},

publisher = {Nature Research},

abstract = {Despite its strong influence on relative sea-level (RSL) rise, there is still low confidence in estimates of vertical land motion (VLM) and its contribution to RSL change. To address this problem, we synergize diverse VLM data, which now cover almost 65% of the coastal population, and are key to resolve small scale subsidence, including East, South, and Southeast Asian cities and populated deltaic regions, largely not covered by earlier geodetic measurements. We find that the average modern (1995-2020) global RSL rise experienced by coastal populations (6 mm/year) is about twice as large as the climate-driven absolute sea-level rise. This reflects a strong tendency for higher rates of subsidence in densely populated areas, with 71% of the global coastal population living in subsiding regions. Paired with community efforts to extend consistent observations, these data are essential to ensure reliable estimates of present and future RSL rise to support risk and adaptation assessment.},

note = {Data Availability: The global VLM reconstruction from Oelsmann et al., 2024 [OE24] is available at https://zenodo.org/records/8308347. GNSS VLM data [Blewitt et al., 2018] are available at https://geodesy.unr.edu/velocities/midas.IGS14.txt. InSAR VLM estimates for Europe can be downloaded from the EGMS data explorer https://egms.land.copernicus.eu/. InSAR VLM data for the US [8] is provided for different regions: The Pacific coast (available through the Virginia Tech Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.7294/17711000), the Atlantic coast (https://doi.org/10.7294/19350959) and the Gulf coast (https://doi.org/10.7294/22731326). The InSAR city subsidence data from Shirzaei et al., 2024 is available at: https://data.lib.vt.edu/articles/dataset/InSAR-Based_Coastal_Land_Subsidence/25864435/1. Delta InSAR data from Nienhuis et al., 2017 is available at https://osf.io/m83z4/files/osfstorage. The delta-subsidence data from Ohenhen et al., 2026 is available at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15015923). Subsidence data for Chinese cities [Ao et al., 2024] can be obtained from https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl4366#supplementary-materials. The GIA estimates contained in the VLM data are available at https://vesl.jpl.nasa.gov/solid-earth/gia/. The ASLC data were obtained from https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/product/SEALEVEL_GLO_PHY_L4_MY_008_047/description. The information of the coastal segments of the DIVA model (location, population, length) and the VLM estimates of NI21b can be obtained from the source files provided at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-00993-z#Sec16. Figures are made with data from Natural Earth (free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com). The delta subsidence and the total global estimates of this study is available at (zenodo-link) (currently available from this temporary repository:) https://tulane.box.com/s/m12eo06roaojub48rh1bpitxt8hqntb2 Code Availability: The code used to process data and generate all figures is available at zenodo (doi link will be uploaded with final editorial checks) linked to the following GitHub repository (link will be included)},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{4ee15f193d994ddfa079bd74ef575375,

title = {Global Carbon Budget 2025},

author = {Pierre Friedlingstein and Michael O'Sullivan and Matthew W. Jones and Robbie M. Andrew and Dorothee C. E. Bakker and Judith Hauck and Peter Landschutzer and Corinne Le Quéré and Hongmei Li and Ingrid T. Luijkx and Glen P. Peters and Wouter Peters and Julia Pongratz and Clemens Schwingshackl and Stephen Sitch and Josep G. Canadell and Philippe Ciais and Kjetil Aas and Simone R. Alin and Peter Anthoni and Leticia Barbero and Nicholas R. Bates and Nicolas Bellouin and Alice Benoit-Cattin and Carla F. Berghoff and Raffaelle Bernardello and Laurent Bopp and Ida B. M. Brasika and Matthew A. Chamberlain and Naveen Chandra and Frédéric Chevallier and Louise P. Chini and Nathan O. Collier and Thomas H. Colligan and Margot Cronin and Laique Djeutchouang and Xinyu Dou and Matt P. Enright and Kazutaka Enyo and Michael Erb and Wiley Evans and Richard A. Feely and Liang Feng and Daniel J. Ford and Adrianna Foster and Filippa Fransner and Thomas Gasser and Marion Gehlen and Thanos Gkritzalis and Jefferson Goncalves De Souza and Giacomo Grassi and Luke Gregor and Nicolas Gruber and Bertrand Guenet and Özgür Gürses and Kirsty Harrington and Ian Harris and Jens Heinke and George C. Hurtt and Yosuke Iida and Tatiana Ilyina and Akihiko Ito and Andrew R. Jacobson and Atul K. Jain and Tereza Jarníková and Annika Jersild and Fei Jiang and Steve D. Jones and Etsushi Kato and Ralph F. Keeling and Kees Klein Goldewijk and Jürgen Knauer and Yawen Kong and Jan Ivar Korsbakken and Charles Koven and Taro Kunimitsu and Xin Lan and Junjie Liu and Zhiqiang Liu and Zhu Liu and Claire Lo Monaco and Lei Ma and Gregg Marland and Patrick C. Mcguire and Galen A. McKinley and Joe Melton and Natalie Monacci and Erwan Monier and Eric J. Morgan and David R. Munro and Jens D. Müller and Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka and Lorna R. Nayagam and Yosuke Niwa and Tobias Nutzel and Are Olsen and Abdirahman M. Omar and Naiqing Pan and Sudhanshu Pandey and Denis Pierrot and Zhangcai Qin and Pierre A. G. Regnier and Gregor Rehder and Laure Resplandy and Alizée Roobaert and Thais M. Rosan and Christian Rödenbeck and Jörg Schwinger and Ingunn Skjelvan and T. Luke Smallman and Victoria Spada and Mohana G. Sreeush and Qing Sun and Adrienne J. Sutton and Colm Sweeney and Didier Swingedouw and Roland Séférian and Shintaro Takao and Hiroaki Tatebe and Hanqin Tian and Xiangjun Tian and Bronte Tilbrook and Hiroyuki Tsujino and Francesco Tubiello and Erik Van Ooijen and Guido Werf and Sebastiaan J. Velde and Anthony Walker and Rik Wanninkhof and Xiaojuan Yang and Wenping Yuan and Xu Yue and Jiye Zeng},

doi = {10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026},

issn = {1866-3508},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-05-13},

journal = {Earth System Science Data},

volume = {18},

number = {5},

pages = {3211–3288},

publisher = {Copernicus Publications},

abstract = {Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E LUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (G ATM) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the ocean (S OCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO 2-products. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the land (S LAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. This year, we introduced corrections on the ELUC, SOCEAN and SLAND estimates. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ. For the year 2024, EFOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr -1), ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr -1, for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO 2 yr -1). Also, for 2024, GATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr -1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr -1), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr -1 and SLAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr -1, leaving a large negative BIM (-1.7 GtC yr -1), suggesting that the total sink or GATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2024 of +1.0 % (0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).},

note = {Data sets Data Supporting the Global Carbon Budget 2025 P. Friedlingstein et al. https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{346ace5517934244a90abfc8c302e0ee,

title = {Wealth Redistribution Policies to Mitigate the Impact of Development Assistance Defunding: a Retrospective Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis up to 2030},

author = {Gonzalo Barreix Sibils and Rodrigo Volmir Rezende Anderle and Andrea Ferreira da Silva and Lucas de Oliveira Ferreira de Sales and Daiaina Pena and Caterina Monti and Claudia Garcia Vaz and Lucio Esposito and Edward Anderson and Xavier Jara and Hugo Santa and Gabriela Dos Santos Jesus and Daniella Medeiros Cavalcanti and Ariel Nhacolo and Ivalda Macicame and Quique Bassat and Davide Rasella},

issn = {0140-6736},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-05-12},

journal = {The Lancet},

publisher = {Elsevier},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{6b45a55050f441cf9497a3413e4a4967,

title = {Bias-corrected UKCP18 Convection-Permitting Model Projections for England},

author = {Qianyu Zha and Yi He and Timothy J. Osborn and Nicole Forstenhäusler},

doi = {10.5194/hess-30-2395-2026},

issn = {1607-7938},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-04-27},

journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)},

volume = {30},

number = {8},

pages = {2395–2415},

publisher = {Copernicus Publications},

abstract = {The UKCP18 Convection-permitting model (CPM) provides the latest high-resolution climate projections for the UK. Compared with regional climate model projections, the CPM projections are more capable of simulating small-scale atmospheric convection particularly during extreme weather events such as intense rainfall and localised storms. However, systematic biases still exist in these projections. To improve the reliability of these projections, bias correction is crucial. In this study, we apply and evaluate a quantile mapping (QM) bias correction method for UKCP18-CPM hourly precipitation (with diurnal correction) and daily temperature over England. We quantify how closely the bias corrected simulations align with observations relative to the raw simulations. The raw UKCP18-CPM simulations exhibit wet precipitation biases, particularly in northern England, with annual mean biases ranging from 4.6 % to 18.3 %, and cool temperature biases, with annual mean biases from −0.87 to 0.02 °C. Bias correction substantially improved agreement with observational datasets, increasing R2 values for the 95th percentile of hourly precipitation from 0.80–0.88 to 0.98 and achieving near-perfect alignment (R2 = 1) for temperature extremes. Future projections for the 2070s indicate notable increases in annual maximum precipitation by 25.1 %–39.1 % and mean daily temperature by 3.1 to 4.5 °C, highlighting the potential for more intense climate-related events. Overall, the applied bias-correction method brings UKCP18-CPM simulations into closer agreement with observations for both mean behaviour and extremes, providing a more reliable basis for high-resolution impact modelling and assessments that require hourly precipitation forcing.},

note = {Data availability: The dataset is available at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16213003; Zha et al., 2025).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ab73fc0988c140d49d8f8ffc9708560e,

title = {Unlocking the potential of integrated multi-trophic aquaculture in coastal Kenya: Assessment of system status, stakeholder awareness, and pathways for sustainable mariculture development},

author = {Esther Magondu and Mavindu Muthoka and Douglas Okemwa and Markose Zwedie and Lucy Njogu and Jonathan Munguti and Joshua Aboah and David Mirera and Rodrigue Yossa},

doi = {10.1111/jwas.70092},

issn = {0893-8849},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-04-14},

journal = {Journal of the World Aquaculture Society},

volume = {57},

number = {2},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) is an emerging system that offers a model for sustainable aquaculture intensification, yet its global uptake is limited while its utilization in sub-Saharan Africa remains unknown. This study assessed the status of mariculture systems, stakeholder awareness, and pathways for IMTA adoption along Kenya's coastline to inform sustainable mariculture development. A mixed-methods approach was applied across five counties—Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Tana River—using structured surveys (n = 300), focus group discussions (n = 15), and key informant interviews (n = 19). Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and logistic regression, while qualitative insights were thematically coded and triangulated. Results show that aquaculture is predominantly small-scale (95.3%) and pond-based (68.3%). There were significant regional differences in aquaculture systems and species composition (χ 2 = 113.311, p < 0.001; Cramer's V = 0.658). Though IMTA adoption was low (2.3%), willingness to adopt was high across the counties. Ordinal logistic regression confirmed county as a significant predictor of willingness (χ 2 = 47.996, p < 0.001), with the strongest effects in Kwale (β = 2.023, p < 0.001) and Lamu (β = 1.363, p < 0.001). Multinomial regression identified lack of knowledge, capacity, and financial resources as major barriers (χ 2 = 67.038, p < 0.001). Qualitative findings emphasized grassroots innovation potential and strong community interest, contingent on training and infrastructure support. This study establishes a baseline for guiding IMTA policy, demonstrating strong latent readiness for inclusive, climate-smart mariculture within Kenya's Blue Economy strategy.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{327dcaefd35c409890924991725adb36,

title = {A geospatial database of coastal characteristics for erosion assessment of Europe's coastal floodplains},

author = {Susan Hanson and Robert Nicholls and Floris Calkoen and Gonéri Cozannet and Arjen P. Luijendijk},

doi = {10.5194/nhess-26-1685-2026},

issn = {1561-8633},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-04-14},

journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {26},

number = {4},

pages = {1685–1703},

publisher = {Copernicus Publications},

abstract = {Coastal erosion and flooding are linked, with erosion potentially exacerbating flood extents and risk, but analysis of the combined hazards is limited. This paper describes the CoasTER geographic database specifically designed for the first time to integrate existing information on erosion and other relevant characteristics for Europe's coastal floodplains. The CoasTER database updates and builds on earlier erosion research and data sources. At the European scale, it combines fundamental erosion-relevant information (sediment type, land use, floodplains, geomorphology, historical shoreline movement trend) on a standard shoreline to highlight the potential magnitude of erosion-flood interactions by defining where mobile sediments and coastal floodplains are co-located. It also identifies where morphodynamic response to sea-level rise is constrained due to structures/infrastructure. Results indicate almost 80 % (25 000 km) of the total shoreline length associated with European coastal floodplains (approx. 31 000 km) are composed of mobile sediments, with coastal wetlands being the most prevalent geomorphological type. While accretion is the dominant historical trend for these shorelines, approximately 27 % are currently classed as eroding at over 0.5 m yr−1 over the last 40 years. The majority of floodplain shorelines are associated with either developed or agricultural areas and constraining human structures that occur along almost 8000 km of shoreline. The CoasTER database demonstrates that episodic and/or long-term erosion and coastal flooding is a Europe-wide issue that deserves the attention of local to European decision-makers in order to define a coherent management strategy.},

note = {Data availability: The CoasTER database is available as a download in cloud-optimized format and described in a STAC collection produced using CoastPy (see Calkoen et al., 2025). Project/platform website: https://coclicoservices.eu/ (last access: 25 March 2026). Python guidance tutorials: https://github.com/openearth/coclico-workbench/tree/main/tutorials (last access: 25 March 2026). STAC data location: https://minio.dive.edito.eu/project-coclico/coclico-stac-edito/catalog.json (last access: 25 March 2026). Floodplain data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19233592 (Lincke, 2026).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{0a41d0f1d29c40aab5862394fc963015,

title = {Unveiling Gender Inequities in Small-Scale Fisheries and Aquaculture in East Africa: a Harvard Analytical Framework Approach},

author = {Kevin Okoth Ouko and Cherine Lando Yugi and Modock Odiwuor Oketch and Lucy Njogu and Jimmy Brian Mboya and Robert John Ogola and Danstone Aboge and Mavindu Muthoka and Dick Chune Midamba},

doi = {10.1002/aff2.70210},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-04-01},

journal = {Aquaculture, Fish and Fisheries},

volume = {6},

number = {2},

abstract = {Small-scale fisheries and aquaculture constitute critical pillars of food security, livelihoods, and rural economies across East Africa, yet persistent gendered inequalities continue to constrain both equity and sectoral performance. This study provides a synthesis of empirical evidence from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania to examine how structural, institutional, and socio-cultural processes reproduce gender disparities across fisheries and aquaculture value chains. Drawing on a narrative review of peer reviewed and grey literature published between 2015 and 2025, the analysis applies the Harvard Analytical Framework (HAF) to interrogate four interrelated dimensions: Division of labour, access to and control over productive resources, influencing institutional and normative factors, and gender integration within project cycles. The findings indicate that gender inequalities are most pronounced in asset ownership, decision making authority, and benefit distribution rather than participation alone. Women remain concentrated in labour intensive and lower value post-harvest activities, while men dominate harvesting, aquaculture production, licensing systems, and leadership positions within co management institutions. Across the three countries, men retain control over the majority of productive assets, including boats, fishing gear, land, and aquaculture infrastructure, while women's access to credit, extension services, and modern technologies remains constrained. These disparities are reinforced by inheritance regimes, gender norms, and male dominated governance structures that shape access to resources and control over income. Development interventions frequently expand women's participation without addressing underlying structural constraints, thereby contributing to the reproduction of institutional inequalities. By linking structural analysis to policy relevant pathways, the study argues that inclusive blue economy development requires tenure reform, gender responsive financing mechanisms, institutional restructuring, and sustained normative change. The review positions gender equity as a governance and productivity imperative and provides an evidence based foundation for advancing resilient and inclusive fisheries and aquaculture systems in East Africa.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this published article.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}