Tyndall Centre Journal Articles
2025
Pennington, Lois; Welfle, Andrew; Parkes, Ben; Larkin, Alice
Beyond the runway – Quantifying the climate impact of international catering waste Journal Article
In: Waste Management, vol. 203, 2025, ISSN: 0956-053X.
@article{44bdfe45099749eab2f17f7304aed214,
title = {Beyond the runway – Quantifying the climate impact of international catering waste},
author = {Lois Pennington and Andrew Welfle and Ben Parkes and Alice Larkin},
issn = {0956-053X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-08-12},
journal = {Waste Management},
volume = {203},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {International flights generate substantial volumes of waste that pose a unique environmental challenge, as strict biosecurity regulations require it to be disposed of through destructive methods across the world. However, the impact on the world’s climate of managing this waste remains unquantified and largely disregarded in aviation mitigation discussions. This study presents the first analysis of the contribution of cabin waste management to climate change, developing a novel methodology that combines passenger movement data with waste generation factors to quantify volumes, composition, and greenhouse gas emissions of national cabin waste. Applied to the United Kingdom as a case study, our analysis estimates that that approximately 89,000 tonnes of cabin waste entered the UK in 2022. This generated between 10,400 and 40,500 tonnes of CO2 equivalent due to the mandated disposal in landfill or incineration. This climate impact is driven by regulatory requirements that prevent more sustainable waste treatment methods, and by slow industry innovations. Our model demonstrates that allowing cabin waste to be treated like domestic waste could generate climate benefits of 33,900 tonnes CO2 equivalent, through material and energy recovery. With aviation movements projected to grow through to 2050, we identify specific actions that could enable more sustainable cabin waste treatment while maintaining high levels of biosecurity. This research provides a replicable framework for other nations to quantify their cabin waste climate impacts, and evidence-based pathways for urgent regulation and operational reform.},
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International flights generate substantial volumes of waste that pose a unique environmental challenge, as strict biosecurity regulations require it to be disposed of through destructive methods across the world. However, the impact on the world’s climate of managing this waste remains unquantified and largely disregarded in aviation mitigation discussions. This study presents the first analysis of the contribution of cabin waste management to climate change, developing a novel methodology that combines passenger movement data with waste generation factors to quantify volumes, composition, and greenhouse gas emissions of national cabin waste. Applied to the United Kingdom as a case study, our analysis estimates that that approximately 89,000 tonnes of cabin waste entered the UK in 2022. This generated between 10,400 and 40,500 tonnes of CO2 equivalent due to the mandated disposal in landfill or incineration. This climate impact is driven by regulatory requirements that prevent more sustainable waste treatment methods, and by slow industry innovations. Our model demonstrates that allowing cabin waste to be treated like domestic waste could generate climate benefits of 33,900 tonnes CO2 equivalent, through material and energy recovery. With aviation movements projected to grow through to 2050, we identify specific actions that could enable more sustainable cabin waste treatment while maintaining high levels of biosecurity. This research provides a replicable framework for other nations to quantify their cabin waste climate impacts, and evidence-based pathways for urgent regulation and operational reform.
Heaton, Matthew; Perez-Viana, Borja; Emmrich, Peter; Mulat, Belay; Verschoor, Arjan
Understanding farmer preferences to guide crop improvement: The case of grasspea in Ethiopia Journal Article
In: Journal of Development Studies, vol. 61, no. 8, pp. 1221–1241, 2025, ISSN: 0022-0388, (Funding information: This study was supported by the Global Challenges Research Fund. This work was made possible thanks to UKRI-BBSRC funding from the GCRF Agri-Tech Catalyst programme, grant number GCRF-SA-2020-JIC, and GCRF QR funds Rapid Response funds, grant number RR0620-7.).
@article{955a5c3b3d68404b89e364d68e0e071b,
title = {Understanding farmer preferences to guide crop improvement: The case of grasspea in Ethiopia},
author = {Matthew Heaton and Borja Perez-Viana and Peter Emmrich and Belay Mulat and Arjan Verschoor},
doi = {10.1080/00220388.2025.2453519},
issn = {0022-0388},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-08-01},
journal = {Journal of Development Studies},
volume = {61},
number = {8},
pages = {1221–1241},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Building climate resilience in agriculture may usefully rely on crop improvement informed by social science studies of farmer preferences. Here, we present the case of grasspea in Ethiopia, a resilient and nutritious legume that can survive conditions where many other crops fail. Excessive consumption however carries the risk of an irreversible, crippling disease, this is possible in the future since the weather extremes that climate change is predicted to bring will create the conditions in which grasspea is one of the food sources that will likely see increased consumption. Crucially, farmers are not fully aware of this risk and may therefore not adopt the low-toxin grasspea that crop scientists have developed and that is about to enter the breeding pipeline. In this study we use focus group discussions, key informant interviews and choice experiments to investigate farmer preferences for grasspea improvement. We confirm that farmers do not place much value on reduced toxicity. Instead, they have strong preferences for other improvements, such as resistance to pests. This suggests that improvements that are needed in future but not yet preferred (i.e. reduced toxicity) should be bundled with improvements that farmers already prefer.},
note = {Funding information: This study was supported by the Global Challenges Research Fund. This work was made possible thanks to UKRI-BBSRC funding from the GCRF Agri-Tech Catalyst programme, grant number GCRF-SA-2020-JIC, and GCRF QR funds Rapid Response funds, grant number RR0620-7.},
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Building climate resilience in agriculture may usefully rely on crop improvement informed by social science studies of farmer preferences. Here, we present the case of grasspea in Ethiopia, a resilient and nutritious legume that can survive conditions where many other crops fail. Excessive consumption however carries the risk of an irreversible, crippling disease, this is possible in the future since the weather extremes that climate change is predicted to bring will create the conditions in which grasspea is one of the food sources that will likely see increased consumption. Crucially, farmers are not fully aware of this risk and may therefore not adopt the low-toxin grasspea that crop scientists have developed and that is about to enter the breeding pipeline. In this study we use focus group discussions, key informant interviews and choice experiments to investigate farmer preferences for grasspea improvement. We confirm that farmers do not place much value on reduced toxicity. Instead, they have strong preferences for other improvements, such as resistance to pests. This suggests that improvements that are needed in future but not yet preferred (i.e. reduced toxicity) should be bundled with improvements that farmers already prefer.
Hope, Aimie; Naughton, Felix; Notley, Caitlin
Smoking cessation supported by a smartphone app: A qualitative process evaluation of the Quit Sense feasibility RCT Journal Article
In: British Journal of Health Psychology, vol. 30, no. 3, 2025, ISSN: 1359-107X, (DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: The data underlying this article will be shared upon reasonable request to the corresponding author. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research Programme (17/92/31). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.).
@article{38c966b14c364301bc90253d56d8520b,
title = {Smoking cessation supported by a smartphone app: A qualitative process evaluation of the Quit Sense feasibility RCT},
author = {Aimie Hope and Felix Naughton and Caitlin Notley},
doi = {10.1111/bjhp.70010},
issn = {1359-107X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-07-25},
journal = {British Journal of Health Psychology},
volume = {30},
number = {3},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Objectives: Quit Sense is a Just-in-Time Adaptive Intervention (JITAI) smartphone app that provides real-time automated and in-situ support to help people attempting to quit smoking manage cue-induced cravings. This process evaluation study explored views and experiences of feasibility trial participants and assessed: (1) intervention experiences, (2) how these might help explain causal path-ways towards behaviour change and (3) experiences of study participation. Design: Qualitative interviews nested within a two-arm feasibility randomized control trial. Methods: We purposefully sampled 20 participants (15intervention, 5 usual care) for semi-structured telephone interviews. Data were thematically analysed and was supplemented with a descriptive analysis of relevant experiences to hypothesize causal pathways to behaviour change. Results: Motivations for engaging in the trial and intervention included wanting greater accountability and to be part of something. Reasons for disengaging included success-fully quitting (app no longer needed), lapsing/relapsing and preferring other support types. Mechanisms which reportedly enabled successful quit attempts included the app's pre-quit preparation phase through insights into smoking cues, the delivery of lapse avoidance strategies and the supportive messages which helped to reinforce the goal of quitting. The trial was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic and provided examples of situations and contexts in which Quit Sense was used and felt to be (un)helpful for cessation. Conclusions: The Quit Sense app and trial were well received by participants. Participants reported that the preparation phase used for app training prior to their quit date was of particular value and not currently offered by other apps tried.},
note = {DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: The data underlying this article will be shared upon reasonable request to the corresponding author. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research Programme (17/92/31). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.},
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Objectives: Quit Sense is a Just-in-Time Adaptive Intervention (JITAI) smartphone app that provides real-time automated and in-situ support to help people attempting to quit smoking manage cue-induced cravings. This process evaluation study explored views and experiences of feasibility trial participants and assessed: (1) intervention experiences, (2) how these might help explain causal path-ways towards behaviour change and (3) experiences of study participation. Design: Qualitative interviews nested within a two-arm feasibility randomized control trial. Methods: We purposefully sampled 20 participants (15intervention, 5 usual care) for semi-structured telephone interviews. Data were thematically analysed and was supplemented with a descriptive analysis of relevant experiences to hypothesize causal pathways to behaviour change. Results: Motivations for engaging in the trial and intervention included wanting greater accountability and to be part of something. Reasons for disengaging included success-fully quitting (app no longer needed), lapsing/relapsing and preferring other support types. Mechanisms which reportedly enabled successful quit attempts included the app's pre-quit preparation phase through insights into smoking cues, the delivery of lapse avoidance strategies and the supportive messages which helped to reinforce the goal of quitting. The trial was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic and provided examples of situations and contexts in which Quit Sense was used and felt to be (un)helpful for cessation. Conclusions: The Quit Sense app and trial were well received by participants. Participants reported that the preparation phase used for app training prior to their quit date was of particular value and not currently offered by other apps tried.
Durmaz, Zeynep; Schroeder, Heike
Indigenous contestations of carbon markets, carbon colonialism, and power dynamics in international climate negotiations Journal Article
In: Climate, vol. 13, no. 8, 2025, ISSN: 2225-1154, (Data Availability Statement: The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author.).
@article{73ad904632cd4c7ab8e19f606c7e5f24,
title = {Indigenous contestations of carbon markets, carbon colonialism, and power dynamics in international climate negotiations},
author = {Zeynep Durmaz and Heike Schroeder},
doi = {10.3390/cli13080158},
issn = {2225-1154},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-07-24},
journal = {Climate},
volume = {13},
number = {8},
publisher = {MDPI AG},
abstract = {This paper examines the intersection of global climate governance, carbon markets, and Indigenous Peoples’ rights under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It critically analyses how Indigenous Peoples have contested the Article 6 market mechanisms of the Paris Agreement at the height of their negotiation during COP25 and COP26 by drawing attention to their role in perpetuating “carbon colonialism,” thereby revealing deeper power dynamics in global climate governance. Utilising a political ecology framework, this study explores these power dynamics at play during the climate negotiations, focusing on the instrumental, structural, and discursive forms of power that enable or limit Indigenous participation. Through a qualitative case study approach, the research reveals that while Indigenous Peoples have successfully used discursive strategies to challenge market-based solutions, their influence remains limited due to entrenched structural and instrumental power imbalances within the UNFCCC process. This study highlights the need for equitable policies that integrate human rights safeguards and prioritise Indigenous-led, non-market-based approaches to ecological restoration.},
note = {Data Availability Statement: The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author.},
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pubstate = {published},
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This paper examines the intersection of global climate governance, carbon markets, and Indigenous Peoples’ rights under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It critically analyses how Indigenous Peoples have contested the Article 6 market mechanisms of the Paris Agreement at the height of their negotiation during COP25 and COP26 by drawing attention to their role in perpetuating “carbon colonialism,” thereby revealing deeper power dynamics in global climate governance. Utilising a political ecology framework, this study explores these power dynamics at play during the climate negotiations, focusing on the instrumental, structural, and discursive forms of power that enable or limit Indigenous participation. Through a qualitative case study approach, the research reveals that while Indigenous Peoples have successfully used discursive strategies to challenge market-based solutions, their influence remains limited due to entrenched structural and instrumental power imbalances within the UNFCCC process. This study highlights the need for equitable policies that integrate human rights safeguards and prioritise Indigenous-led, non-market-based approaches to ecological restoration.
Luo, Feifei; Samset, Bjørn H.; Stjern, Camilla W.; Joshi, Manoj; Wilcox, Laura J.; Allen, Robert J.; Hua, Wei; Li, Shuanglin
Physical processes influencing the Asian climate due to black carbon emission over East and South Asia Journal Article
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 25, no. 14, pp. 7647–7667, 2025, ISSN: 1680-7375, (Data availability statement: The NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20th Century Reanalysis V3 (20CR) datasets are obtained from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.html (Compo et al., 2011). HadSLP is provided by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and can be downloaded at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadslp2/ (Allan and Ansell, 2006). The PDRMIP data can be accessed through the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) data server at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PDRMIP_2012-2021 (Andrews et al., 2021). Data of the SyRAP–FORTE2 experiments reported in this paper are available without restriction on reasonable request to Camilla W. Stjern at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research. Financial support: This research has been supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (grant no. 2019QZKK010203).).
@article{208afcf3e12b49d586c1971b359af1d3,
title = {Physical processes influencing the Asian climate due to black carbon emission over East and South Asia},
author = {Feifei Luo and Bjørn H. Samset and Camilla W. Stjern and Manoj Joshi and Laura J. Wilcox and Robert J. Allen and Wei Hua and Shuanglin Li},
doi = {10.5194/acp-25-7647-2025},
issn = {1680-7375},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-07-21},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
volume = {25},
number = {14},
pages = {7647–7667},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
abstract = {Many studies have shown that black carbon (BC) aerosols over Asia have significant impacts on regional climate, but with large diversities in intensity, spatial distribution and physical mechanism of regional responses. In this study, we utilized a set of Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) using a reduced complexity climate model, FORTE2, to investigate responses of the Asian climate to BC aerosols over East Asia only, South Asia only, and both regions at once, and thoroughly examine related physical processes. Results show that regional BC aerosols lead to a strong surface cooling, air temperature warming in the low-level troposphere, and drying over the perturbed areas, with seasonal differences in magnitude and spatial distribution. Atmospheric energy budget analysis suggests that reductions in local precipitation primarily depend on the substantial local atmospheric heating due to shortwave absorption by BC. Increases in dry static energy (DSE) flux divergence partly offset the reduced precipitation over north China in summer and most of China and India in the other three seasons. Decreases in DSE flux divergence lead to stronger reduction in precipitation over south China and central India in summer. Changes in DSE flux divergence are mainly due to vertical motions driven by diabatic heating in the middle and lower troposphere. BC perturbations also exert non-local climate impacts through the changes in DSE flux divergence. This study provides a full chain of physical processes of the local climate responses to the Asian BC increases, and gives some insights to better understand the uncertainties of model responses.},
note = {Data availability statement: The NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20th Century Reanalysis V3 (20CR) datasets are obtained from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.html (Compo et al., 2011). HadSLP is provided by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and can be downloaded at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadslp2/ (Allan and Ansell, 2006). The PDRMIP data can be accessed through the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) data server at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PDRMIP_2012-2021 (Andrews et al., 2021). Data of the SyRAP–FORTE2 experiments reported in this paper are available without restriction on reasonable request to Camilla W. Stjern at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research. Financial support: This research has been supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (grant no. 2019QZKK010203).},
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Many studies have shown that black carbon (BC) aerosols over Asia have significant impacts on regional climate, but with large diversities in intensity, spatial distribution and physical mechanism of regional responses. In this study, we utilized a set of Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) using a reduced complexity climate model, FORTE2, to investigate responses of the Asian climate to BC aerosols over East Asia only, South Asia only, and both regions at once, and thoroughly examine related physical processes. Results show that regional BC aerosols lead to a strong surface cooling, air temperature warming in the low-level troposphere, and drying over the perturbed areas, with seasonal differences in magnitude and spatial distribution. Atmospheric energy budget analysis suggests that reductions in local precipitation primarily depend on the substantial local atmospheric heating due to shortwave absorption by BC. Increases in dry static energy (DSE) flux divergence partly offset the reduced precipitation over north China in summer and most of China and India in the other three seasons. Decreases in DSE flux divergence lead to stronger reduction in precipitation over south China and central India in summer. Changes in DSE flux divergence are mainly due to vertical motions driven by diabatic heating in the middle and lower troposphere. BC perturbations also exert non-local climate impacts through the changes in DSE flux divergence. This study provides a full chain of physical processes of the local climate responses to the Asian BC increases, and gives some insights to better understand the uncertainties of model responses.
Lecuye, L.; Calla, S.; Coolsaet, Brendan; Rodriguez, I.; Young, J. C.
Empowering European farmers: Insights from decolonial theory and indigenous people in Latin America Journal Article
In: Journal of Rural Studies, vol. 117, 2025, ISSN: 0743-0167, (Data availability statement: No data was used for the research described in the article. This work was supported by the French Investissements d’Avenir Program, Project ISITE-BFC (Contract ANR-15-IDEX-0003) and built on the collaboration of authors from the POWERBIODIV project, funded by Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB) of the Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB).).
@article{ee5cfded298341c6abbb55418a1ef2ba,
title = {Empowering European farmers: Insights from decolonial theory and indigenous people in Latin America},
author = {L. Lecuye and S. Calla and Brendan Coolsaet and I. Rodriguez and J. C. Young},
doi = {10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103651},
issn = {0743-0167},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-07-01},
journal = {Journal of Rural Studies},
volume = {117},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The modernization of European agriculture and new societal concerns around global environmental change and food quality have led to forms of marginalization and misrecognition of European farmers. These include limited political agency in decision-making, economic dependency on industrial inputs, devaluation of traditional farming knowledge, restrictive regulatory frameworks, socio-technical lock-ins reinforcing productivist models, and increasing social stigmatization by the public. We draw parallels between the root causes of farmers' marginalization in Europe and the oppression of Indigenous people in the Global South. Their common struggle for recognition allows us to see how a decolonial approach could contribute to addressing the social malaise of farmers in Europe. There is much to learn from Indigenous people's experience in facing the coloniality matrix of power in their claim for more justice that could benefit farmers and the transformation toward a fairer agri-food system in Europe},
note = {Data availability statement: No data was used for the research described in the article. This work was supported by the French Investissements d’Avenir Program, Project ISITE-BFC (Contract ANR-15-IDEX-0003) and built on the collaboration of authors from the POWERBIODIV project, funded by Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB) of the Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB).},
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The modernization of European agriculture and new societal concerns around global environmental change and food quality have led to forms of marginalization and misrecognition of European farmers. These include limited political agency in decision-making, economic dependency on industrial inputs, devaluation of traditional farming knowledge, restrictive regulatory frameworks, socio-technical lock-ins reinforcing productivist models, and increasing social stigmatization by the public. We draw parallels between the root causes of farmers' marginalization in Europe and the oppression of Indigenous people in the Global South. Their common struggle for recognition allows us to see how a decolonial approach could contribute to addressing the social malaise of farmers in Europe. There is much to learn from Indigenous people's experience in facing the coloniality matrix of power in their claim for more justice that could benefit farmers and the transformation toward a fairer agri-food system in Europe
Coulthard, Sarah; Hatt, Ainsley; Lewis, Phoebe; Stewart, Bryce D.; Roach, Michael; Clark, Robert; Fanshawe, Sam; White, Carole Sandrine; Urquhart, Julie; Percy, Jerry; Gray, Tim; Bulled, Emily; Richards, Joe; Turner, Rachel; Baker, Edward; Evans, Louisa; Chaigneau, Tom; Hooper, Tom; Longsden, Jack; Anbleyth-Evans, Jeremy
Recognising and protecting the national benefit of sustainable fisheries in the UK Journal Article
In: Fish and Fisheries, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 561–576, 2025, ISSN: 1467-2960, (Fata Availability Statement: All data used in the assessment of fishing fleet decline is publicly available online via the Seafish fleet survey database, as referenced in the article.).
@article{218076dc0145416b9a00cdd0ce22b04d,
title = {Recognising and protecting the national benefit of sustainable fisheries in the UK},
author = {Sarah Coulthard and Ainsley Hatt and Phoebe Lewis and Bryce D. Stewart and Michael Roach and Robert Clark and Sam Fanshawe and Carole Sandrine White and Julie Urquhart and Jerry Percy and Tim Gray and Emily Bulled and Joe Richards and Rachel Turner and Edward Baker and Louisa Evans and Tom Chaigneau and Tom Hooper and Jack Longsden and Jeremy Anbleyth-Evans},
doi = {10.1111/faf.12898},
issn = {1467-2960},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-07-01},
journal = {Fish and Fisheries},
volume = {26},
number = {4},
pages = {561–576},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Sustainable commercial fishing makes valuable contributions to coastal regions and broader national benefits. This paper offers three arguments in relation to what is required for the societal benefits of sustainable fisheries to be fully realised and considers each in the context of the UK but with global relevance. First, there is a need to raise the profile of the full range of benefits that are delivered through sustainable fisheries to coastal communities and the broader public. In the UK, the delivery of a ‘national benefit’ objective through fisheries is now enshrined in law by the Fisheries Act, 2020; we operationalise this through a new framing that distils eight ‘national benefits’ that all sustainable fisheries should deliver. Second, better acknowledgement of what society gains from sustainable fisheries must be paralleled with recognition of what society is simultaneously at risk of losing through the decline of the fishing fleet. We detail this decline in a new analysis of long-term UK data, which highlights that the decline is unequally felt, with some regions of the UK, and small-scale fishing sectors, experiencing loss more acutely. This reality leads us to argue a third point, that if society is to retain and truly harness the benefits that flow from sustainable fisheries, governing bodies must act quickly to ensure that fisheries are environmentally sustainable, diverse and inclusive, pursuing fisheries that ‘leave no one behind’.},
note = {Fata Availability Statement: All data used in the assessment of fishing fleet decline is publicly available online via the Seafish fleet survey database, as referenced in the article.},
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Sustainable commercial fishing makes valuable contributions to coastal regions and broader national benefits. This paper offers three arguments in relation to what is required for the societal benefits of sustainable fisheries to be fully realised and considers each in the context of the UK but with global relevance. First, there is a need to raise the profile of the full range of benefits that are delivered through sustainable fisheries to coastal communities and the broader public. In the UK, the delivery of a ‘national benefit’ objective through fisheries is now enshrined in law by the Fisheries Act, 2020; we operationalise this through a new framing that distils eight ‘national benefits’ that all sustainable fisheries should deliver. Second, better acknowledgement of what society gains from sustainable fisheries must be paralleled with recognition of what society is simultaneously at risk of losing through the decline of the fishing fleet. We detail this decline in a new analysis of long-term UK data, which highlights that the decline is unequally felt, with some regions of the UK, and small-scale fishing sectors, experiencing loss more acutely. This reality leads us to argue a third point, that if society is to retain and truly harness the benefits that flow from sustainable fisheries, governing bodies must act quickly to ensure that fisheries are environmentally sustainable, diverse and inclusive, pursuing fisheries that ‘leave no one behind’.
Rao, Nitya; Marzi, Emma; Baudish, Isabel; Laila, Amar; Conti, Costanza; Hicks, Christina
Citizen voice and state response in the context of food system transformations Journal Article
In: Food Policy, vol. 134, 2025, ISSN: 0306-9192.
@article{0f4dea3a42c741a28e5050de1fbbc35d,
title = {Citizen voice and state response in the context of food system transformations},
author = {Nitya Rao and Emma Marzi and Isabel Baudish and Amar Laila and Costanza Conti and Christina Hicks},
doi = {10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102879},
issn = {0306-9192},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-07-01},
journal = {Food Policy},
volume = {134},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {This paper reviews the dynamic interplay between food activism and state responses, focusing on the diverse ways and strategies used by food movements to advocate for food systems transformation. More so, in a context of growing corporate control in food systems, food activism has been promoting just and sustainable alternatives. State reactions have been evolving, ranging from repression to policy change, to, in some cases, collaboration. Through a combination of summative content analysis of key themes across the literature and a thematic exploration of case studies, the paper highlights key trends in food activism and examines how governments have responded to them. By analysing the interactions between citizens and governments, this paper offers insights for both activists and policymakers seeking to build more inclusive and participatory food governance structures, in their efforts to transform food systems.},
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This paper reviews the dynamic interplay between food activism and state responses, focusing on the diverse ways and strategies used by food movements to advocate for food systems transformation. More so, in a context of growing corporate control in food systems, food activism has been promoting just and sustainable alternatives. State reactions have been evolving, ranging from repression to policy change, to, in some cases, collaboration. Through a combination of summative content analysis of key themes across the literature and a thematic exploration of case studies, the paper highlights key trends in food activism and examines how governments have responded to them. By analysing the interactions between citizens and governments, this paper offers insights for both activists and policymakers seeking to build more inclusive and participatory food governance structures, in their efforts to transform food systems.
Eslami, Sepehr; Essink, Gualbert Oude; Paszkowski, Amelie; Seeger, Katharina; Minderhoud, Philip S. J.; Sloff, Kees; Nicholls, Robert J.
A systems perspective for climate adaptation in deltas Journal Article
In: Nature Climate Change, vol. 15, no. 7, pp. 687–691, 2025, ISSN: 1758-678X.
@article{3232f2d45b59419283f50d9ad0adc5dc,
title = {A systems perspective for climate adaptation in deltas},
author = {Sepehr Eslami and Gualbert Oude Essink and Amelie Paszkowski and Katharina Seeger and Philip S. J. Minderhoud and Kees Sloff and Robert J. Nicholls},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-025-02368-0},
issn = {1758-678X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-07-01},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {15},
number = {7},
pages = {687–691},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {Deltas are complex and are among the most vulnerable landforms under climate change. Studying them collectively highlights common stressors that drive their most significant challenges. A holistic conceptual framing of a delta and its feeding river basin is fundamental to effective adaptation planning.},
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Deltas are complex and are among the most vulnerable landforms under climate change. Studying them collectively highlights common stressors that drive their most significant challenges. A holistic conceptual framing of a delta and its feeding river basin is fundamental to effective adaptation planning.
Clapp, Jennifer; Laila, Amar; Conti, Costanza; Hicks, Christina; Vriezen, Rachael; Gordon, Line; Rao, Nitya
Corporate concentration and power matter for agency in food systems Journal Article
In: Food Policy, vol. 134, 2025, ISSN: 0306-9192, (Funding Information: This research was in part supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, grant # 435-2020-0664 (Clapp) and the Canada Reserach Chairs Program (Clapp).).
@article{43696acdeecf4a5d8d2bf349da8f5d20,
title = {Corporate concentration and power matter for agency in food systems},
author = {Jennifer Clapp and Amar Laila and Costanza Conti and Christina Hicks and Rachael Vriezen and Line Gordon and Nitya Rao},
doi = {10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102897},
issn = {0306-9192},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-07-01},
journal = {Food Policy},
volume = {134},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {High levels of corporate concentration and power in agrifood supply chains raise important policy concerns because they can affect food systems in adverse ways. In this paper, we argue that increased corporate concentration and power in food systems has the capacity to undermine people’s agency– that is, their capability to make choices and exercise their voice. We explore three dimensions of the relationship between concentrated corporate power and people’s agency in food systems. First, dominant firms within highly concentrated food system segments can exercise market power, which enables them to earn excess profits – often by charging higher prices, suppressing wages, and weakening livelihood opportunities. Second, dominant agrifood firms have the capacity to shape material conditions within food systems – determining prevailing technologies used in food production, working conditions, levels of processing of packaged food items, and food environments – in ways that can affect people’s choices. Third, dominant agrifood firms can exercise political power by actively pursuing strategies to influence food policy and governance processes via lobbying and other more indirect measures, weakening opportunities for broader democratic participation in food systems governance. Given these potential outcomes, more policy attention should be paid to corporate concentration and its implications for agency within food systems.},
note = {Funding Information: This research was in part supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, grant # 435-2020-0664 (Clapp) and the Canada Reserach Chairs Program (Clapp).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
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High levels of corporate concentration and power in agrifood supply chains raise important policy concerns because they can affect food systems in adverse ways. In this paper, we argue that increased corporate concentration and power in food systems has the capacity to undermine people’s agency– that is, their capability to make choices and exercise their voice. We explore three dimensions of the relationship between concentrated corporate power and people’s agency in food systems. First, dominant firms within highly concentrated food system segments can exercise market power, which enables them to earn excess profits – often by charging higher prices, suppressing wages, and weakening livelihood opportunities. Second, dominant agrifood firms have the capacity to shape material conditions within food systems – determining prevailing technologies used in food production, working conditions, levels of processing of packaged food items, and food environments – in ways that can affect people’s choices. Third, dominant agrifood firms can exercise political power by actively pursuing strategies to influence food policy and governance processes via lobbying and other more indirect measures, weakening opportunities for broader democratic participation in food systems governance. Given these potential outcomes, more policy attention should be paid to corporate concentration and its implications for agency within food systems.
Cataldo, Nicolás Labra; Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro; McLachlan, Carly
Waste pickers in the Global South: understanding the key features that underpin the dominance of informality Journal Article
In: Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy, vol. 21, no. 1, 2025, ISSN: 1548-7733.
@article{f9088dec2a5e49f99386bdc898ebafc9,
title = {Waste pickers in the Global South: understanding the key features that underpin the dominance of informality},
author = {Nicolás Labra Cataldo and Alejandro Gallego-Schmid and Carly McLachlan},
doi = {10.1080/15487733.2025.2478697},
issn = {1548-7733},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-07-01},
journal = {Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy},
volume = {21},
number = {1},
publisher = {National Biological Information Infrastructure},
abstract = {E-waste management in the Global South relies heavily on the informal sector. The associated workforce, vast in number, faces exposure to harmful substances and often represents society’s most vulnerable segments. While the coexistence of formality and informality has been widely documented, researchers have largely overlooked the features that lead to the thriving of informality. This study identifies these aspects through semi-structured interviews and participant observations with urban e-waste stakeholders in the Santiago Metropolitan Region of Chile. We discern six distinct working profiles (flea-market traders, scrap collectors, scrap dealers, scrapyard operators, collection-center managers, and treatment-company operators) that span a broad informality spectrum. From the characterization of the operations and labor aspects, we distill three key elements that determine the dominance of informality: agility (income-generation speed), capillarity (reach in the material collection), and flexibility (work-time adaptability). Our findings indicate that some profiles of the formal sector in the Santiago Metropolitan Region operate in a grey area with poor operational standards and a lack of contractual relationships, aligning them more closely with informality. We advocate for understanding and utilizing the features of informality to develop integration strategies and suggest a redefined understanding of formality in line with the diverse dimensions of vulnerability in the context of informality. While we identify potential opportunities to enhance a circular economy by embracing some of the advantages of the informal sector, future research should gauge the potential contributions of informality in terms of increasing collection and treatment rates and assess their environmental impact compared to formal services.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
E-waste management in the Global South relies heavily on the informal sector. The associated workforce, vast in number, faces exposure to harmful substances and often represents society’s most vulnerable segments. While the coexistence of formality and informality has been widely documented, researchers have largely overlooked the features that lead to the thriving of informality. This study identifies these aspects through semi-structured interviews and participant observations with urban e-waste stakeholders in the Santiago Metropolitan Region of Chile. We discern six distinct working profiles (flea-market traders, scrap collectors, scrap dealers, scrapyard operators, collection-center managers, and treatment-company operators) that span a broad informality spectrum. From the characterization of the operations and labor aspects, we distill three key elements that determine the dominance of informality: agility (income-generation speed), capillarity (reach in the material collection), and flexibility (work-time adaptability). Our findings indicate that some profiles of the formal sector in the Santiago Metropolitan Region operate in a grey area with poor operational standards and a lack of contractual relationships, aligning them more closely with informality. We advocate for understanding and utilizing the features of informality to develop integration strategies and suggest a redefined understanding of formality in line with the diverse dimensions of vulnerability in the context of informality. While we identify potential opportunities to enhance a circular economy by embracing some of the advantages of the informal sector, future research should gauge the potential contributions of informality in terms of increasing collection and treatment rates and assess their environmental impact compared to formal services.
Clist, Paul; D'Exelle, Ben; Verschoor, Arjan
Risk taking with social consequences Journal Article
In: Journal of Development Studies, vol. 61, no. 7, pp. 1148–1167, 2025, ISSN: 0022-0388, (Code availability: The data and code are available here https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MN2BMQ and https://paulclist.github.io/. Funding information: The research was funded by ESRC-DFID grant ES/J008893/1.).
@article{57c517b101c847639b3b8006a517c8e9,
title = {Risk taking with social consequences},
author = {Paul Clist and Ben D'Exelle and Arjan Verschoor},
doi = {10.1080/00220388.2025.2453523},
issn = {0022-0388},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-07-01},
journal = {Journal of Development Studies},
volume = {61},
number = {7},
pages = {1148–1167},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Strong egalitarian norms and preferences may affect entrepreneurship. If people feel guilty of their success they may take fewer risks, whilst if they expect their successes to be celebrated, they would take more risks. In this paper we ask whether anticipated social consequences influence risky choices. Do people take more, less or the same risk when inequality results from risky choice? We provide experimental evidence from rural Uganda. Subjects choose lotteries for themselves and a partner under different risk resolutions, allowing us to identify their type. We find anticipated social consequences influence risk taking for most people, as only one quarter are indifferent. Two-fifths are ex post inequality seeking, holding their own pay off constant, and take more risk when inequality is common. This possibility is not considered by previous experiments in the West, but is the largest category for our sample. Only one-third are ex-post inequality averse, reducing inequality of outcomes at a cost to their expected earnings. We show types are robust, and document large gender-based heterogeneity. These results imply inequality-aversion is not holding back risk taking on average. Rather there is great heterogeneity in how people respond to anticipated social consequences.},
note = {Code availability: The data and code are available here https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MN2BMQ and https://paulclist.github.io/. Funding information: The research was funded by ESRC-DFID grant ES/J008893/1.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Strong egalitarian norms and preferences may affect entrepreneurship. If people feel guilty of their success they may take fewer risks, whilst if they expect their successes to be celebrated, they would take more risks. In this paper we ask whether anticipated social consequences influence risky choices. Do people take more, less or the same risk when inequality results from risky choice? We provide experimental evidence from rural Uganda. Subjects choose lotteries for themselves and a partner under different risk resolutions, allowing us to identify their type. We find anticipated social consequences influence risk taking for most people, as only one quarter are indifferent. Two-fifths are ex post inequality seeking, holding their own pay off constant, and take more risk when inequality is common. This possibility is not considered by previous experiments in the West, but is the largest category for our sample. Only one-third are ex-post inequality averse, reducing inequality of outcomes at a cost to their expected earnings. We show types are robust, and document large gender-based heterogeneity. These results imply inequality-aversion is not holding back risk taking on average. Rather there is great heterogeneity in how people respond to anticipated social consequences.
Okello, Julius Juma; Just, David R.; Verschoor, Arjan; Mulwa, Chalmers; Xie, Mingcong; Ojwang, Sylvester; Namanda, Sam; Yada, Benard; Ssali, Reuben; Okim, Moses Bunsen; Mutiso, Janet Mwende; Rajendran, Srinivasulu; Campos, Hugo
Behavioral interventions in informal seed systems to nudge sustainable demand for quality seed of sweetpotato Journal Article
In: Agricultural Systems, vol. 229, 2025, ISSN: 0308-521X, (Data availability: Data will be made available on request. Acknowledgments: This research was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), through its investment [OPP1213329] awarded to the International Potato Center (SweetGAINS); the CGIAR Initiative on Market Intelligence; Program for Seed System Innovation for Vegetatively propagated Crops in Africa (PROSSIVA) Project; and the CGIAR Initiative on Seed Equal. We also acknowledge research assistance support from Edwin Sserekumma, Harriet Ayoko, and John Robert Otukei, and logistical support from Dennis Odeke.).
@article{ff34595773064f32b52b8d875c4b1671,
title = {Behavioral interventions in informal seed systems to nudge sustainable demand for quality seed of sweetpotato},
author = {Julius Juma Okello and David R. Just and Arjan Verschoor and Chalmers Mulwa and Mingcong Xie and Sylvester Ojwang and Sam Namanda and Benard Yada and Reuben Ssali and Moses Bunsen Okim and Janet Mwende Mutiso and Srinivasulu Rajendran and Hugo Campos},
doi = {10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104421},
issn = {0308-521X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-17},
journal = {Agricultural Systems},
volume = {229},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {CONTEXT: The introduction of quality-certified seed (QCS) in the informal farmer network-based seed systems, which have largely relied on informal signals of quality, represents a promising innovation towards integrated seed sector development, combining formal and informal sector elements. At the same time, behavioral nudges have emerged as potentially powerful ways to encourage the uptake of innovations among smallholder farmers in developing countries. OBJECTIVE: Here we examine whether nudges may be used to influence adoption rates of QCS in an informal seed system. METHODS: We focused on the use of text message reminders to increase the repurchase of sweetpotato vines that are certified to be free of pests and diseases. Our study site was a sweetpotato growing district in Uganda where yield is severely depressed due to sweetpotato virus disease and sweetpotato weevils. We used a randomized controlled trial involving 120 village clusters to test the effectiveness of text message reminders. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We observe some indication that initial text reminders increased the likelihood of repurchase. In subsequent seasons, additional reminders reduced this likelihood. This suggests that simple reminders may be a useful tool to encourage the swifter integration of formal and informal elements in seed systems, but that their repeated use may be counterproductive. SIGNIFICANCE: This study highlights the potential and limitations of using behavioral nudges to promote sustainable demand for quality seed in informal seed systems. Text reminders can initially encourage adoption of quality seed. However, careful consideration is needed regarding their frequency and implementation to avoid negative effects.},
note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request. Acknowledgments: This research was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), through its investment [OPP1213329] awarded to the International Potato Center (SweetGAINS); the CGIAR Initiative on Market Intelligence; Program for Seed System Innovation for Vegetatively propagated Crops in Africa (PROSSIVA) Project; and the CGIAR Initiative on Seed Equal. We also acknowledge research assistance support from Edwin Sserekumma, Harriet Ayoko, and John Robert Otukei, and logistical support from Dennis Odeke.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
CONTEXT: The introduction of quality-certified seed (QCS) in the informal farmer network-based seed systems, which have largely relied on informal signals of quality, represents a promising innovation towards integrated seed sector development, combining formal and informal sector elements. At the same time, behavioral nudges have emerged as potentially powerful ways to encourage the uptake of innovations among smallholder farmers in developing countries. OBJECTIVE: Here we examine whether nudges may be used to influence adoption rates of QCS in an informal seed system. METHODS: We focused on the use of text message reminders to increase the repurchase of sweetpotato vines that are certified to be free of pests and diseases. Our study site was a sweetpotato growing district in Uganda where yield is severely depressed due to sweetpotato virus disease and sweetpotato weevils. We used a randomized controlled trial involving 120 village clusters to test the effectiveness of text message reminders. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We observe some indication that initial text reminders increased the likelihood of repurchase. In subsequent seasons, additional reminders reduced this likelihood. This suggests that simple reminders may be a useful tool to encourage the swifter integration of formal and informal elements in seed systems, but that their repeated use may be counterproductive. SIGNIFICANCE: This study highlights the potential and limitations of using behavioral nudges to promote sustainable demand for quality seed in informal seed systems. Text reminders can initially encourage adoption of quality seed. However, careful consideration is needed regarding their frequency and implementation to avoid negative effects.
Adaji, Mercy; Vasilakos, Nicholas; Kebede, Bereket
Powering Africa’s sustainable future: The role of cross-border electricity trade on renewable electricity generation Journal Article
In: Energy & Environment, 2025, ISSN: 0958-305X, (Funding information: This work was supported by the HORIZON EUROPE Climate, Energy and Mobility (Grant No. 101081377).).
@article{6d81492361fa42a2a92f266fa021c4cf,
title = {Powering Africa’s sustainable future: The role of cross-border electricity trade on renewable electricity generation},
author = {Mercy Adaji and Nicholas Vasilakos and Bereket Kebede},
doi = {10.1177/0958305X251343068},
issn = {0958-305X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-02},
journal = {Energy & Environment},
publisher = {Sage Publications},
abstract = {Electricity trade plays a pivotal role in Africa's energy transition pathway, aiding in the distribution of new infrastructure costs, addressing the intermittency of renewable energies, and capitalising on their spatial concentration. Despite these advantages driving the establishment of a regional single electricity market, trading volumes remain relatively low. This study empirically explores Africa's cross-border electricity trade's influence on renewable electricity generation. Utilising a fixed effects model, data for 21 African countries from the World Bank and the International Energy Agency spanning 1996 to 2020 is collected and analysed. The results reveal that a 1% increase in electricity trade significantly raises the share of renewables in total electricity output by approximately 0.05%. Additionally, it is noted that net-exporting countries exhibit weaker positive impacts from electricity trade compared to net importers. Our results highlight the importance of governance quality as a driver of growth in the sector.},
note = {Funding information: This work was supported by the HORIZON EUROPE Climate, Energy and Mobility (Grant No. 101081377).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Electricity trade plays a pivotal role in Africa's energy transition pathway, aiding in the distribution of new infrastructure costs, addressing the intermittency of renewable energies, and capitalising on their spatial concentration. Despite these advantages driving the establishment of a regional single electricity market, trading volumes remain relatively low. This study empirically explores Africa's cross-border electricity trade's influence on renewable electricity generation. Utilising a fixed effects model, data for 21 African countries from the World Bank and the International Energy Agency spanning 1996 to 2020 is collected and analysed. The results reveal that a 1% increase in electricity trade significantly raises the share of renewables in total electricity output by approximately 0.05%. Additionally, it is noted that net-exporting countries exhibit weaker positive impacts from electricity trade compared to net importers. Our results highlight the importance of governance quality as a driver of growth in the sector.
Kenny, John; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game? Journal Article
In: Electoral Studies, vol. 95, 2025, ISSN: 0261-3794.
@article{6a2684c29dd14c0ebdd97b9f89edecbb,
title = {Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?},
author = {John Kenny and Michael S. Lewis-Beck},
doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933},
issn = {0261-3794},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-01},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
volume = {95},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.
Carmenta, Rachel; Lima, Mairon G. Bastos; Choiruzzad, Shofwan A. B.; Dawson, Neil; Estrada-Carmona, Natalia; Hicks, Christina; Kallis, Giorgos; Nana, Eric; Killick, Evan; Lees, Alexander; Martin, Adrian; Pascual, Unai; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Reed, James; Turnhout, Esther; Vira, Bhaskar; Zaehringer, Julie G.; Barlow, Jos
Unveiling pervasive assumptions: Moving beyond the poverty-biodiversity loss association in conservation Journal Article
In: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, vol. 74, 2025, ISSN: 1877-3435, (Data Availability: No data were used for the research described in the article.).
@article{01c14b93b4a040d4810840f05551bdec,
title = {Unveiling pervasive assumptions: Moving beyond the poverty-biodiversity loss association in conservation},
author = {Rachel Carmenta and Mairon G. Bastos Lima and Shofwan A. B. Choiruzzad and Neil Dawson and Natalia Estrada-Carmona and Christina Hicks and Giorgos Kallis and Eric Nana and Evan Killick and Alexander Lees and Adrian Martin and Unai Pascual and Nathalie Pettorelli and James Reed and Esther Turnhout and Bhaskar Vira and Julie G. Zaehringer and Jos Barlow},
doi = {10.1016/j.cosust.2025.101537},
issn = {1877-3435},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-01},
journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability},
volume = {74},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {This paper reflects on the continued persistence of the idea in conservation research and practice that poverty drives biodiversity loss (the poverty-biodiversity loss association [PBLA]). We draw on evidence to show how the PBLA has proven resistant to counter-evidence and is particularly visible at local-level implementation, and is often implicit in conservation strategies. We untangle three underlying reasons that help to explain why the PBLA has persisted under a verisimilitude (seeming truth) that can leave it hiding in plain sight. In doing so, we offer conservation science and practice the means to recognise and thereby remedy this thinking where it exists, and in so doing, advance conservation towards its aims of equitable and effective delivery. We outline how the Connected Conservation model may be better equipped to challenge the disproportionate role of wealth in biodiversity decline whilst empowering biodiversity stewards and their plural knowledge, values and governance systems.},
note = {Data Availability: No data were used for the research described in the article.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This paper reflects on the continued persistence of the idea in conservation research and practice that poverty drives biodiversity loss (the poverty-biodiversity loss association [PBLA]). We draw on evidence to show how the PBLA has proven resistant to counter-evidence and is particularly visible at local-level implementation, and is often implicit in conservation strategies. We untangle three underlying reasons that help to explain why the PBLA has persisted under a verisimilitude (seeming truth) that can leave it hiding in plain sight. In doing so, we offer conservation science and practice the means to recognise and thereby remedy this thinking where it exists, and in so doing, advance conservation towards its aims of equitable and effective delivery. We outline how the Connected Conservation model may be better equipped to challenge the disproportionate role of wealth in biodiversity decline whilst empowering biodiversity stewards and their plural knowledge, values and governance systems.
Wilkinson, Sophie; Nowack, Peer; Joshi, Manoj
Process-based machine learning observationally constrains future regional warming projections Journal Article
In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, vol. 2, no. 2, 2025, ISSN: 2993-5210, (Data Availability Statement: All reanalysis and CMIP6 data used in this study are publicly available. A specific list of data sets and variables accessed, data pre-processing steps, and Python code for analysis are archived in Zenodo and available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15115895 (Wilkinson, 2025). Acknowledgments: S.W. was supported by a University of East Anglia Faculty of Science PhD studentship. P.N. and M.J. were supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/V012045/1). We acknowledge the WCRP, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate-modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF. We further used the JASMIN postprocessing system (Lawrence et al., 2013) operated by the Science and Technology Facilities Council on behalf of the UK Natural Environment Research Council. The analysis presented in this paper was mostly carried out on the High Performance Computing Cluster supported by the Research and Specialist Computing Support service at the University of East Anglia.).
@article{59f76545d25c4774aebbfb7ded0c2c91,
title = {Process-based machine learning observationally constrains future regional warming projections},
author = {Sophie Wilkinson and Peer Nowack and Manoj Joshi},
doi = {10.1029/2025JH000698},
issn = {2993-5210},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-01},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation},
volume = {2},
number = {2},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {We present the results of a novel process-based machine learning method to constrain climate model uncertainty in future regional temperature projections. Ridge-ERA5 - a ridge regression model - learns coefficients to represent observed relationships between daily near-surface temperature anomalies and predictor variables from ERA5 reanalysis in Northern Hemisphere land regions. Combining the historically constrained Ridge-ERA5 coefficients with inputs from CMIP6 future projections enables a derivation of observational constraints on regional warming. Although the multi-model mean falls within the constrained range of temperatures in all tested regions, a subset of models which predict the greatest degree of warming tend to be excluded and decomposition of the constraint into predictor variable contributions suggests error-cancellation of feedbacks in some models and regions.},
note = {Data Availability Statement: All reanalysis and CMIP6 data used in this study are publicly available. A specific list of data sets and variables accessed, data pre-processing steps, and Python code for analysis are archived in Zenodo and available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15115895 (Wilkinson, 2025). Acknowledgments: S.W. was supported by a University of East Anglia Faculty of Science PhD studentship. P.N. and M.J. were supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/V012045/1). We acknowledge the WCRP, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate-modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF. We further used the JASMIN postprocessing system (Lawrence et al., 2013) operated by the Science and Technology Facilities Council on behalf of the UK Natural Environment Research Council. The analysis presented in this paper was mostly carried out on the High Performance Computing Cluster supported by the Research and Specialist Computing Support service at the University of East Anglia.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
We present the results of a novel process-based machine learning method to constrain climate model uncertainty in future regional temperature projections. Ridge-ERA5 - a ridge regression model - learns coefficients to represent observed relationships between daily near-surface temperature anomalies and predictor variables from ERA5 reanalysis in Northern Hemisphere land regions. Combining the historically constrained Ridge-ERA5 coefficients with inputs from CMIP6 future projections enables a derivation of observational constraints on regional warming. Although the multi-model mean falls within the constrained range of temperatures in all tested regions, a subset of models which predict the greatest degree of warming tend to be excluded and decomposition of the constraint into predictor variable contributions suggests error-cancellation of feedbacks in some models and regions.
Reed, James; Barlow, Jos; Carmenta, Rachel; Fakheran, Sima; Ickowitz, Amy; Sunderland, Terry
Avoid cherry-picking targets and embrace holistic conservation to pursue the global diodiversity framework Journal Article
In: Conservation Letters, vol. 18, no. 3, 2025, ISSN: 1755-263X, (Data Availability Statement: The authors have nothing to report. Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work.).
@article{cc28d2ea5e00499b97f4fe9830622603,
title = {Avoid cherry-picking targets and embrace holistic conservation to pursue the global diodiversity framework},
author = {James Reed and Jos Barlow and Rachel Carmenta and Sima Fakheran and Amy Ickowitz and Terry Sunderland},
doi = {10.1111/conl.13104},
issn = {1755-263X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-01},
journal = {Conservation Letters},
volume = {18},
number = {3},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {The Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) marked a renewed commitment to addressing the global biodiversity crisis. This framework of four goals and 23 interim targets is intended to guide and accelerate conservation efforts over the next 25 years and is more ambitious than its predecessor, the Aichi 2020 targets. However, the pursuit of multilateral agreements is dependent upon national pledges, and the limited success of the Aichi targets shows that national pledges are of little worth without aligned (sub)national action. We assessed the submitted National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plans of several member countries to determine their alignment with the bold ambition of the GBF. We find a lack of alignment between the GBF and country submissions across many targets, with the notable exception of Target 3—commonly interpreted as increasing protected area coverage to 30% by 2030. Reflecting on the submissions, recent developments, and our collective experience, we outline key considerations that could help guide future submissions and implementation strategies. We caution against cherry-picking specific targets, highlighting that an overemphasis on Target 3 will fail to achieve the overarching vision of living in harmony with nature. This requires a more holistic and inclusive approach to conservation and a focus on the full suite of GBF targets.},
note = {Data Availability Statement: The authors have nothing to report. Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) marked a renewed commitment to addressing the global biodiversity crisis. This framework of four goals and 23 interim targets is intended to guide and accelerate conservation efforts over the next 25 years and is more ambitious than its predecessor, the Aichi 2020 targets. However, the pursuit of multilateral agreements is dependent upon national pledges, and the limited success of the Aichi targets shows that national pledges are of little worth without aligned (sub)national action. We assessed the submitted National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plans of several member countries to determine their alignment with the bold ambition of the GBF. We find a lack of alignment between the GBF and country submissions across many targets, with the notable exception of Target 3—commonly interpreted as increasing protected area coverage to 30% by 2030. Reflecting on the submissions, recent developments, and our collective experience, we outline key considerations that could help guide future submissions and implementation strategies. We caution against cherry-picking specific targets, highlighting that an overemphasis on Target 3 will fail to achieve the overarching vision of living in harmony with nature. This requires a more holistic and inclusive approach to conservation and a focus on the full suite of GBF targets.
Spadoni, Gian Luca; Moris, Jose V.; Segura-Garcia, Carlota; Pessoa, Ana Carolina; Jones, Matthew W.; Machado, Manoela S.; Motta, Renzo; Alencar, Ane Auxiliadora Costa; Ascoli, Davide; Menor, Imma Oliveras
Devegetation is a widespread driver of fire in the Brazilian Cerrado Journal Article
In: Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 385, 2025, ISSN: 0301-4797, (Data availability: Data will be made available on request.).
@article{84da7112a8a3407fb61db34667f188da,
title = {Devegetation is a widespread driver of fire in the Brazilian Cerrado},
author = {Gian Luca Spadoni and Jose V. Moris and Carlota Segura-Garcia and Ana Carolina Pessoa and Matthew W. Jones and Manoela S. Machado and Renzo Motta and Ane Auxiliadora Costa Alencar and Davide Ascoli and Imma Oliveras Menor},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125637},
issn = {0301-4797},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-01},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
volume = {385},
publisher = {Academic Press Inc.},
abstract = {The Cerrado is the largest tropical savanna in the world, featuring a wide range of vegetation types with different sensitivity to fire. The structure, functioning and rich biodiversity of the non-forest formations is intimately associated with the presence of fire, which historically has acted both as a natural disturbance and as a tool used by Indigenous communities. Currently, the Brazilian Cerrado is threatened by substantial devegetation (i.e., conversion of native vegetation to human land uses) and alterations in the fire regime (e.g., frequency, seasonality), negatively impacting biodiversity, local communities, and global climate regulation. Although it is known that land conversion can lead to fires in the Cerrado, the extent and proportion of burned area attributable to this process remain unclear. This study, covering the period 2003–2020, quantifies both the surface of native vegetation lost through land conversion (devegetation) and the area burned by fires ignited in converted areas, focusing on the portion of the Cerrado included in the state of Mato Grosso and the MATOPIBA region. Using geospatial data on devegetation (PRODES Cerrado), fires (Global Fire Atlas), and land use (MapBiomas), we classified individual fires into Devegetation Related Fires (DRF) or devegetation Independent Fires (IF). DRF were those ignited within or in close proximity to devegetated patches up to two years following the conversion, while IF included all other fires. We further examined differences in seasonality and size distribution between DRF and IF, and analysed DRF prevalence across different land tenures, including Indigenous Territories, Protected Areas, and private lands. Over the 18-year study period, DRF burned, with distinctive seasonality and reduced average fire size, approximately 20 million hectares within the study area, which represents about a quarter of the total native vegetation area. This accounts for approximately 12 % of the total burned area in the study region and is comparable to the size of the devegetated area during the same period (around 15 million hectares). Although governance systems like strictly Protected Areas and Indigenous Territories limited devegetation, they could not prevent impacts from DRF, which burned 12 % and 16 % of their total native vegetation area, respectively. These findings highlight the urgent need to halt devegetation and regulate fire use in the Cerrado through integrated fire management policies.},
note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The Cerrado is the largest tropical savanna in the world, featuring a wide range of vegetation types with different sensitivity to fire. The structure, functioning and rich biodiversity of the non-forest formations is intimately associated with the presence of fire, which historically has acted both as a natural disturbance and as a tool used by Indigenous communities. Currently, the Brazilian Cerrado is threatened by substantial devegetation (i.e., conversion of native vegetation to human land uses) and alterations in the fire regime (e.g., frequency, seasonality), negatively impacting biodiversity, local communities, and global climate regulation. Although it is known that land conversion can lead to fires in the Cerrado, the extent and proportion of burned area attributable to this process remain unclear. This study, covering the period 2003–2020, quantifies both the surface of native vegetation lost through land conversion (devegetation) and the area burned by fires ignited in converted areas, focusing on the portion of the Cerrado included in the state of Mato Grosso and the MATOPIBA region. Using geospatial data on devegetation (PRODES Cerrado), fires (Global Fire Atlas), and land use (MapBiomas), we classified individual fires into Devegetation Related Fires (DRF) or devegetation Independent Fires (IF). DRF were those ignited within or in close proximity to devegetated patches up to two years following the conversion, while IF included all other fires. We further examined differences in seasonality and size distribution between DRF and IF, and analysed DRF prevalence across different land tenures, including Indigenous Territories, Protected Areas, and private lands. Over the 18-year study period, DRF burned, with distinctive seasonality and reduced average fire size, approximately 20 million hectares within the study area, which represents about a quarter of the total native vegetation area. This accounts for approximately 12 % of the total burned area in the study region and is comparable to the size of the devegetated area during the same period (around 15 million hectares). Although governance systems like strictly Protected Areas and Indigenous Territories limited devegetation, they could not prevent impacts from DRF, which burned 12 % and 16 % of their total native vegetation area, respectively. These findings highlight the urgent need to halt devegetation and regulate fire use in the Cerrado through integrated fire management policies.
Barton, Harry; McLachlan, Carly; Hoolohan, Claire; Jones, Christopher
Empowering city decision-makers: A practical guide to learning for decarbonisation at the city-level Journal Article
In: Environmental Science & Policy, vol. 167, 2025, ISSN: 1462-9011.
@article{2e0936cd971d4ce89286bc0304660014,
title = {Empowering city decision-makers: A practical guide to learning for decarbonisation at the city-level},
author = {Harry Barton and Carly McLachlan and Claire Hoolohan and Christopher Jones},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104046},
issn = {1462-9011},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-01},
journal = {Environmental Science & Policy},
volume = {167},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {The actions of cities will be pivotal in our transition to a low-carbon future. City-level decision-makers are well placed to influence and facilitate this transition. Decarbonising transport, buildings, and energy is key to combating the climate crisis and reaching self-assigned city-level carbon targets to curb warming and protect the environment. However, deciding which decarbonisation projects to implement is an issue. Choosing the wrong project could have financial or reputational repercussions, thus deciding on an appropriate set of interventions can be challenging for city decision-makers. Learning about the successes and challenges of city-level sustainability projects is vital for decision-makers at the city-level hoping to create of their own low-carbon city. To this end, this article outlines a new, practical method developed with city-level decision-makers that identifies key learning opportunities from other cities based on their own decarbonisation priorities. This city-to-city learning framework makes selecting decarbonisation projects easier and more efficient, as it enables users to identify decarbonisation projects that align with their environmental plans and priorities. The Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) provides a case study for the application of this framework, demonstrating how the learning framework is used to narrow down the most suitable decarbonisation projects for the Greater Manchester city-region, based on bespoke sustainability criteria and targets. This work contributes to the formalisation of city-to-city learning pathways, outlining the ways that cities want to learn from others, and highlighting where to begin this learning process to accelerate climate action.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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}
The actions of cities will be pivotal in our transition to a low-carbon future. City-level decision-makers are well placed to influence and facilitate this transition. Decarbonising transport, buildings, and energy is key to combating the climate crisis and reaching self-assigned city-level carbon targets to curb warming and protect the environment. However, deciding which decarbonisation projects to implement is an issue. Choosing the wrong project could have financial or reputational repercussions, thus deciding on an appropriate set of interventions can be challenging for city decision-makers. Learning about the successes and challenges of city-level sustainability projects is vital for decision-makers at the city-level hoping to create of their own low-carbon city. To this end, this article outlines a new, practical method developed with city-level decision-makers that identifies key learning opportunities from other cities based on their own decarbonisation priorities. This city-to-city learning framework makes selecting decarbonisation projects easier and more efficient, as it enables users to identify decarbonisation projects that align with their environmental plans and priorities. The Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) provides a case study for the application of this framework, demonstrating how the learning framework is used to narrow down the most suitable decarbonisation projects for the Greater Manchester city-region, based on bespoke sustainability criteria and targets. This work contributes to the formalisation of city-to-city learning pathways, outlining the ways that cities want to learn from others, and highlighting where to begin this learning process to accelerate climate action.
Li, Jingyi; Hollis, Cathy; Schmid, Alejandro Gallego
Equity or profit? Understanding the social sustainability challenges of mine water heating network implementation Journal Article
In: Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 124, 2025, ISSN: 2214-6296.
@article{c1687f01c3f44c79bb98b4756e46e053,
title = {Equity or profit? Understanding the social sustainability challenges of mine water heating network implementation},
author = {Jingyi Li and Cathy Hollis and Alejandro Gallego Schmid},
doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2025.104062},
issn = {2214-6296},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-01},
journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},
volume = {124},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {The decarbonisation of the heating sector illustrates the broader tensions between technological innovation, environmental sustainability, and socio-economic equity. Mine water, an indigenous geothermal resource found in disused and flooded coal mines, has the potential to address these tensions through its capacity to deliver renewable, locally sourced heat. However, despite its capability to alleviate fuel poverty, generate employment, and support net-zero ambitions, mine water heating remains underutilised in the UK. This study examines the barriers to implementation, focusing on the Northeast of England—a region historically shaped by coal mining and now marked by economic deprivation and social inequality. Drawing on 33 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders, such as policymakers, industry representatives, local authorities, and residents, the research identifies a range of systemic obstacles. These include protracted and opaque regulatory processes, insufficient financial support mechanisms, and a lack of attention to social equity within policy frameworks. The findings reveal a disconnect between stakeholder expectations and the realities of project deliverability, as well as a narrow policy focus on climate targets that often sidelines pressing social sustainability concerns, such as equitable energy access and community well-being. This research argues for an integrated approach that repositions mine water heating as both an environmental and social intervention. Policy recommendations include creating ring-fenced funding for deprived regions, investing in capacity-building initiatives, and reforming governance processes to enhance project feasibility and inclusivity. Reframing mine water heating as a tool for achieving socially equitable energy transitions underscores its transformative potential for marginalised coalfield communities in the UK and comparable regions globally.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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}
The decarbonisation of the heating sector illustrates the broader tensions between technological innovation, environmental sustainability, and socio-economic equity. Mine water, an indigenous geothermal resource found in disused and flooded coal mines, has the potential to address these tensions through its capacity to deliver renewable, locally sourced heat. However, despite its capability to alleviate fuel poverty, generate employment, and support net-zero ambitions, mine water heating remains underutilised in the UK. This study examines the barriers to implementation, focusing on the Northeast of England—a region historically shaped by coal mining and now marked by economic deprivation and social inequality. Drawing on 33 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders, such as policymakers, industry representatives, local authorities, and residents, the research identifies a range of systemic obstacles. These include protracted and opaque regulatory processes, insufficient financial support mechanisms, and a lack of attention to social equity within policy frameworks. The findings reveal a disconnect between stakeholder expectations and the realities of project deliverability, as well as a narrow policy focus on climate targets that often sidelines pressing social sustainability concerns, such as equitable energy access and community well-being. This research argues for an integrated approach that repositions mine water heating as both an environmental and social intervention. Policy recommendations include creating ring-fenced funding for deprived regions, investing in capacity-building initiatives, and reforming governance processes to enhance project feasibility and inclusivity. Reframing mine water heating as a tool for achieving socially equitable energy transitions underscores its transformative potential for marginalised coalfield communities in the UK and comparable regions globally.
Pereira, Vinicius Juliani
In: Social & Cultural Geography, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 719–720, 2025, ISSN: 1464-9365.
@article{e802d15ad5fb42b29eac083fbd876114,
title = {Threshold: how smart homes change us inside and out: by Heather Suzanne Woods. Tuscaloosa, Alabama, The University of Alabama Press, 2024, 226 pp., $34.95 (paperback), ISBN 978-0-8173-6143-3; $110.00 (hardback), ISBN 978-0-8173-2194-9; $34.95 (eBook), ISBN 978-0-8173-9497-4},
author = {Vinicius Juliani Pereira},
doi = {10.1080/14649365.2024.2443323},
issn = {1464-9365},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-01},
journal = {Social & Cultural Geography},
volume = {26},
number = {6},
pages = {719–720},
publisher = {Routledge},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
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Redhead, John W.; Brown, Matt; Price, Jeff; Robinson, Emma; Nicholls, Robert J.; Warren, Rachel; Pywell, Richard F.
National horizon scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate Journal Article
In: Climate Resilience and Sustainability, vol. 4, no. 1, 2025, ISSN: 2692-4587.
@article{a2e6223c5a804ae593edc8aec5b5bc62,
title = {National horizon scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate},
author = {John W. Redhead and Matt Brown and Jeff Price and Emma Robinson and Robert J. Nicholls and Rachel Warren and Richard F. Pywell},
doi = {10.1002/cli2.70007},
issn = {2692-4587},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-01},
journal = {Climate Resilience and Sustainability},
volume = {4},
number = {1},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Most national assessments of climate change-related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process-based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high-level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre-industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Most national assessments of climate change-related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process-based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high-level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre-industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.
Dewally, K.; Bark, R. H.; Harwood, A. R.; Lovett, A. A.
Learning from the past and embracing future opportunities: Perceptions of new Environmental Land Management Schemes and private nature markets Journal Article
In: Journal of Rural Studies, vol. 119, 2025, ISSN: 0743-0167, (Data availability statement: The authors do not have permission to share data.).
@article{1a6c966a24f14d639dd5335625e0baaa,
title = {Learning from the past and embracing future opportunities: Perceptions of new Environmental Land Management Schemes and private nature markets},
author = {K. Dewally and R. H. Bark and A. R. Harwood and A. A. Lovett},
doi = {10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103723},
issn = {0743-0167},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-05-31},
journal = {Journal of Rural Studies},
volume = {119},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The combination of Brexit and UK government targets, e.g., to address climate change and biodiversity loss, has accelerated the development of new Agri-environmental Scheme (AES), the Environmental Land Management Schemes (ELMS). To improve ELMS design and implementation, it is timely to understand farmers' and farm advisers’ views on these schemes, including their design, rollout and fit with pre-existing and new nature markets, e.g., carbon, Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG). Previous research has assessed AES for their attractiveness to farmers and effectiveness. This study examines new challenges associated with the increasing role of the private sector in funding nature recovery on farms, expected increased levels of participation and an increased requirement for collaboration to deliver landscape-scale nature recovery. To understand how this new policy landscape is perceived by the agricultural sector, 18 interviews were conducted with farmers and advisors (farmer advisors and nature market experts). Findings show that perceptions are shaped by previous involvement with AES (e.g., payment rates, participation costs, inflexibility) which although largely negative, highlight areas for better scheme design. New insights on farmer participation emphasise the roles of policy uncertainty, market integrity concerns, and collaboration, including with non-farmers, e.g., conservation organisations, water companies. Slow policy release was stressed as a key reason for low adoption and underscores the importance of aligning AES incentives with policy objectives. Furthermore, participants raised a need for cross market compatibility, compliance flexibility and fundamental questions about achieving carbon neutrality as a prerequisite for carbon market participation. On the positive side, participants agreed that new schemes/markets are breaking down social barriers through the necessity to work with a wider group of stakeholders and have been a driver for increasing interest in farm clusters.},
note = {Data availability statement: The authors do not have permission to share data.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The combination of Brexit and UK government targets, e.g., to address climate change and biodiversity loss, has accelerated the development of new Agri-environmental Scheme (AES), the Environmental Land Management Schemes (ELMS). To improve ELMS design and implementation, it is timely to understand farmers' and farm advisers’ views on these schemes, including their design, rollout and fit with pre-existing and new nature markets, e.g., carbon, Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG). Previous research has assessed AES for their attractiveness to farmers and effectiveness. This study examines new challenges associated with the increasing role of the private sector in funding nature recovery on farms, expected increased levels of participation and an increased requirement for collaboration to deliver landscape-scale nature recovery. To understand how this new policy landscape is perceived by the agricultural sector, 18 interviews were conducted with farmers and advisors (farmer advisors and nature market experts). Findings show that perceptions are shaped by previous involvement with AES (e.g., payment rates, participation costs, inflexibility) which although largely negative, highlight areas for better scheme design. New insights on farmer participation emphasise the roles of policy uncertainty, market integrity concerns, and collaboration, including with non-farmers, e.g., conservation organisations, water companies. Slow policy release was stressed as a key reason for low adoption and underscores the importance of aligning AES incentives with policy objectives. Furthermore, participants raised a need for cross market compatibility, compliance flexibility and fundamental questions about achieving carbon neutrality as a prerequisite for carbon market participation. On the positive side, participants agreed that new schemes/markets are breaking down social barriers through the necessity to work with a wider group of stakeholders and have been a driver for increasing interest in farm clusters.
Brainard, Julii; Lake, Iain R.; Morbey, Roger A.; Elliot, Alex J.; Hunter, Paul R.
Did COVID-19 surveillance system sensitivity change after Omicron? A retrospective observational study in England Journal Article
In: BMC Infectious Diseases, vol. 25, 2025, ISSN: 1471-2334, (Availability of data and materials: None of the original datasets were collected by ourselves and therefore they should not be redistributed by us. Zoe application, ONSCISE, COVID-19 hospital admissions and Pillar 1 & 2 data all have been accessible in the public domain. Applications for requests to access relevant anonymised data included in this study held by UKSA should be submitted to the UKHSA Office for Data Release at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/accessing-ukhsa-protected-data/accessing-ukhsa-protected-data ). R scripts used for analysis and to generate plots are available at https://github.com/JuliiBrainard/SpotOmicron/tree/main. Funding information: This work was funded and authors were financially renumerated by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King’s College London in partnership with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) in collaboration with the University of East Anglia. AJE is also affiliated with the NIHR HPRU in Gastrointestinal Infections at the University of Liverpool. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, NIHR, UEA, any HPRU, Department of Health or UKHSA. The funders had no role in writing the manuscript. Authors were not precluded from accessing data that supported this study and authors accept responsibility for this submission.).
@article{0da0887d838445718d77a836c8b94bda,
title = {Did COVID-19 surveillance system sensitivity change after Omicron? A retrospective observational study in England},
author = {Julii Brainard and Iain R. Lake and Roger A. Morbey and Alex J. Elliot and Paul R. Hunter},
doi = {10.1186/s12879-025-11120-0},
issn = {1471-2334},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-05-29},
journal = {BMC Infectious Diseases},
volume = {25},
publisher = {BioMed Central},
abstract = {Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic in England, increases and falls in COVID-19 cases were monitored using many surveillance systems (SS). However, surveillance sensitivity may have changed as different variants were introduced to the population, due to greater disease-resistance after comprehensive vaccination programmes and widespread natural infection or for other reasons. Methods: Time series data from ten epidemic trackers in England that were available Sept 2021-June 2022 were compared to each other using Spearman correlation statistics. Least biased and most timely SS in England were identified as ‘best’ standard epidemic trackers, while other COVID-19 tracking datasets we denote as complementary trackers. We compared the best standard trackers with each other and with the complementary trackers. Correlation calculations with 95% confidence intervals were made between complementary and best standard epidemic trackers. We tested the hypothesis that correlation with the best trackers was especially poor during transition periods when Delta, Omicron BA.1 and Omicron BA.2 sublineages were each dominant. Daily ascertainment percentages of incident cases that each SS detected during each variant’s dominance were calculated. We tested for statistically significant (at p < 0.05) differences in the distribution of the ascertainment values during each COVID-19 variant’s dominance, using Welch’s oneway ANOVA. Results: Spearman rho correlation was significantly positive between most complementary and the best trackers over the whole period. There was no apparent visual indication that correlations were especially poor during transition period from Delta to BA.1. There were falls in correlation in the transition period from BA.1 to BA.2 but these falls were relatively small compared to correlation fluctuations over the full period. Ascertainment was highest in the Delta period for complementary systems against the least biased tracker of incidence. Ascertainment was statistically different between the three variant-dominant periods. Conclusions: From September 2021 to June 2022, complementary SS generally reflected case rises and falls. Ascertainment was highest in the Delta-dominant period but no complementary tracker was highly stable. Factors other than which variant was dominant seem likely to have affected how well each tracker reflected true case rises and falls.},
note = {Availability of data and materials: None of the original datasets were collected by ourselves and therefore they should not be redistributed by us. Zoe application, ONSCISE, COVID-19 hospital admissions and Pillar 1 & 2 data all have been accessible in the public domain. Applications for requests to access relevant anonymised data included in this study held by UKSA should be submitted to the UKHSA Office for Data Release at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/accessing-ukhsa-protected-data/accessing-ukhsa-protected-data ). R scripts used for analysis and to generate plots are available at https://github.com/JuliiBrainard/SpotOmicron/tree/main. Funding information: This work was funded and authors were financially renumerated by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King’s College London in partnership with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) in collaboration with the University of East Anglia. AJE is also affiliated with the NIHR HPRU in Gastrointestinal Infections at the University of Liverpool. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, NIHR, UEA, any HPRU, Department of Health or UKHSA. The funders had no role in writing the manuscript. Authors were not precluded from accessing data that supported this study and authors accept responsibility for this submission.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic in England, increases and falls in COVID-19 cases were monitored using many surveillance systems (SS). However, surveillance sensitivity may have changed as different variants were introduced to the population, due to greater disease-resistance after comprehensive vaccination programmes and widespread natural infection or for other reasons. Methods: Time series data from ten epidemic trackers in England that were available Sept 2021-June 2022 were compared to each other using Spearman correlation statistics. Least biased and most timely SS in England were identified as ‘best’ standard epidemic trackers, while other COVID-19 tracking datasets we denote as complementary trackers. We compared the best standard trackers with each other and with the complementary trackers. Correlation calculations with 95% confidence intervals were made between complementary and best standard epidemic trackers. We tested the hypothesis that correlation with the best trackers was especially poor during transition periods when Delta, Omicron BA.1 and Omicron BA.2 sublineages were each dominant. Daily ascertainment percentages of incident cases that each SS detected during each variant’s dominance were calculated. We tested for statistically significant (at p < 0.05) differences in the distribution of the ascertainment values during each COVID-19 variant’s dominance, using Welch’s oneway ANOVA. Results: Spearman rho correlation was significantly positive between most complementary and the best trackers over the whole period. There was no apparent visual indication that correlations were especially poor during transition period from Delta to BA.1. There were falls in correlation in the transition period from BA.1 to BA.2 but these falls were relatively small compared to correlation fluctuations over the full period. Ascertainment was highest in the Delta period for complementary systems against the least biased tracker of incidence. Ascertainment was statistically different between the three variant-dominant periods. Conclusions: From September 2021 to June 2022, complementary SS generally reflected case rises and falls. Ascertainment was highest in the Delta-dominant period but no complementary tracker was highly stable. Factors other than which variant was dominant seem likely to have affected how well each tracker reflected true case rises and falls.
