Tyndall Centre Journal Articles
2025
Brown, David; Martin, Adrian; Fisher, Janet A.; Gingembre, Mathilde
Towards a transformative approach to just rural transitions: Landscape restoration in the Scottish highlands Journal Article
In: Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space, vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 1839–1865, 2025, ISSN: 2514-8486, (Data availability statement: The data that has been used is confidential. Funding information: This work was supported by the JPI Climate- SOLSTICE programme (SOLSTICE Consortium Agreement, 2020-12-1) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council Landscape Decisions Fellowship (grant no. NE/V007904/1).).
@article{014e86f8686e4505a1cc2e412c5362f5,
title = {Towards a transformative approach to just rural transitions: Landscape restoration in the Scottish highlands},
author = {David Brown and Adrian Martin and Janet A. Fisher and Mathilde Gingembre},
doi = {10.1177/25148486251367163},
issn = {2514-8486},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space},
volume = {8},
number = {6},
pages = {1839–1865},
publisher = {Sage Publications},
abstract = {Driven by international policy agendas to restore landscapes, large-scale land-use changes are expected in rural areas, with significant implications for landscape characteristics, land-uses, livelihoods, economies and cultures. It is increasingly recognised that the long-term success of restoration initiatives requires integrating social considerations, yet uncertainties remain over the pathways for achieving this. This paper explores the basis for- and barriers to- a just and sustainable vision of the landscape through a case study of the Affric-Kintail area in the Scottish Highlands, a context in which environmental policy agendas and natural capital investments are driving rural landscape change. Drawing from multidimensional, empirical environmental justice, this paper investigates the diverse justice claims voiced by rural communities. The research highlights a spectrum of justice concerns tied to diverse, contested meanings and practices of just transitions, where we distinguish between socio-technical and transformative approaches to just transition. As a result, our case study points to fundamental structural and socio-economic barriers to realising just transformation in rural Scotland, rooted in vast inequalities in power, wealth and landownership, and a depth of justice concerns around rural landscape transformations which have so far been left aside by restoration agendas and just transition policy discourses.},
note = {Data availability statement: The data that has been used is confidential. Funding information: This work was supported by the JPI Climate- SOLSTICE programme (SOLSTICE Consortium Agreement, 2020-12-1) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council Landscape Decisions Fellowship (grant no. NE/V007904/1).},
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Driven by international policy agendas to restore landscapes, large-scale land-use changes are expected in rural areas, with significant implications for landscape characteristics, land-uses, livelihoods, economies and cultures. It is increasingly recognised that the long-term success of restoration initiatives requires integrating social considerations, yet uncertainties remain over the pathways for achieving this. This paper explores the basis for- and barriers to- a just and sustainable vision of the landscape through a case study of the Affric-Kintail area in the Scottish Highlands, a context in which environmental policy agendas and natural capital investments are driving rural landscape change. Drawing from multidimensional, empirical environmental justice, this paper investigates the diverse justice claims voiced by rural communities. The research highlights a spectrum of justice concerns tied to diverse, contested meanings and practices of just transitions, where we distinguish between socio-technical and transformative approaches to just transition. As a result, our case study points to fundamental structural and socio-economic barriers to realising just transformation in rural Scotland, rooted in vast inequalities in power, wealth and landownership, and a depth of justice concerns around rural landscape transformations which have so far been left aside by restoration agendas and just transition policy discourses.
Mahony, Martin; Barclay, Jenni; Pascal, Karen; Pyle, David M.; Scarlett, Jazmin
Science in a crisis: Assembling volcanic knowledge in twentieth century Montserrat Journal Article
In: Journal of Historical Geography, vol. 90, pp. 1–12, 2025, ISSN: 0305-7488, (Data availability: The authors do not have permission to share data. Funding information: This research was supported by the UK Arts & Humanities Research Council (AHRC) and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), as part of the project ‘Curating Crises: The Past as a Key to Improving the Stewardship of Hazard Knowledge for the Future’ (AH/W00898X/1). Additional support was provided from the NERC Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET; to DMP) and the GCRF and Newton Fund Consolidation Accounts (GNCA; Oxford and UEA).).
@article{712c49bf480a44c38a5098df367f0e18,
title = {Science in a crisis: Assembling volcanic knowledge in twentieth century Montserrat},
author = {Martin Mahony and Jenni Barclay and Karen Pascal and David M. Pyle and Jazmin Scarlett},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhg.2025.08.002},
issn = {0305-7488},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Journal of Historical Geography},
volume = {90},
pages = {1–12},
publisher = {Academic Press Inc.},
abstract = {In the 1930s Montserrat, part of the British Leeward Islands colony, experienced a prolonged period of seismic unrest which many on the island interpreted as presaging a volcanic eruption. During the crisis several international scientists visited Montserrat and advised the local and imperial authorities on the likelihood of an eruption, and the island became a key node in an increasingly global volcanology. The process of assembling reliable knowledge about the volcanic system and its likely future behaviour was nonetheless heavily structured by colonial hierarchies and contestations over the reliability of different observers and the utility of long term monitoring. When the volcano eventually began erupting in 1995 it put paid to lingering governmental doubts over its very existence. We propose that work on the geographies of science has so far paid insufficient attention to the spatialities of crisis science, and that doing so can shed new light on both the history and persistence of colonial practices in the environmental sciences and in disaster management. Adopting longer perspectives on the politics of crisis science can yield new insights into the geographies and political geologies of a crisis-ridden present.},
note = {Data availability: The authors do not have permission to share data. Funding information: This research was supported by the UK Arts & Humanities Research Council (AHRC) and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), as part of the project ‘Curating Crises: The Past as a Key to Improving the Stewardship of Hazard Knowledge for the Future’ (AH/W00898X/1). Additional support was provided from the NERC Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET; to DMP) and the GCRF and Newton Fund Consolidation Accounts (GNCA; Oxford and UEA).},
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In the 1930s Montserrat, part of the British Leeward Islands colony, experienced a prolonged period of seismic unrest which many on the island interpreted as presaging a volcanic eruption. During the crisis several international scientists visited Montserrat and advised the local and imperial authorities on the likelihood of an eruption, and the island became a key node in an increasingly global volcanology. The process of assembling reliable knowledge about the volcanic system and its likely future behaviour was nonetheless heavily structured by colonial hierarchies and contestations over the reliability of different observers and the utility of long term monitoring. When the volcano eventually began erupting in 1995 it put paid to lingering governmental doubts over its very existence. We propose that work on the geographies of science has so far paid insufficient attention to the spatialities of crisis science, and that doing so can shed new light on both the history and persistence of colonial practices in the environmental sciences and in disaster management. Adopting longer perspectives on the politics of crisis science can yield new insights into the geographies and political geologies of a crisis-ridden present.
Cahillane, Ashley; Forster, Johanna; Kołbuk, Dorota; Brannigan, John
Offshore cultural ecosystem services: evidence from open-sea research Journal Article
In: Ecosystem Services, vol. 76, 2025, ISSN: 2212-0416, (Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request.).
@article{23b11ead14804c16a6a10cd28ab47754,
title = {Offshore cultural ecosystem services: evidence from open-sea research},
author = {Ashley Cahillane and Johanna Forster and Dorota Kołbuk and John Brannigan},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecoser.2025.101783},
issn = {2212-0416},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Ecosystem Services},
volume = {76},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Offshore marine environments tend to be characterised as uninhabited resource pools, and therefore, compared to terrestrial and coastal environments, have received little attention as sources of cultural ecosystem benefits. Ecosystem valuations of offshore marine areas have largely been based on the monetary values of provisioning and regulating services, and have not taken full account of intangible and non-monetary values. Effective management of marine areas depends upon a comprehensive assessment of the wide range of ecosystem benefits to society, including such cultural benefits as sense of place, cultural identity, aesthetic appreciation and inspiration, connection with nature, and education and research. This paper describes a novel approach to collecting data on cultural ecosystem benefits in offshore areas by stationing a cultural ecosystem services researcher on board a research vessel to carry out observational and ethnographic research, and to conduct semi-structured interviews with researchers and crew. The approach draws from humanities and social science methodologies for investigating embodied experiences, emotional responses, and psychological attachments. Results show a wide range of cultural ecosystem benefits associated with offshore, and a high degree of recognition of the sea as a powerful yet vulnerable environment demanding care and respect. Greater understanding of the cultural values of key users of offshore marine ecosystems will help to inform more effective marine management decisions and practices, and there is considerable scope for in situ participatory and observational research as described in this paper to help to achieve a more holistic assessment of marine cultural ecosystem benefits.},
note = {Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request.},
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pubstate = {published},
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Offshore marine environments tend to be characterised as uninhabited resource pools, and therefore, compared to terrestrial and coastal environments, have received little attention as sources of cultural ecosystem benefits. Ecosystem valuations of offshore marine areas have largely been based on the monetary values of provisioning and regulating services, and have not taken full account of intangible and non-monetary values. Effective management of marine areas depends upon a comprehensive assessment of the wide range of ecosystem benefits to society, including such cultural benefits as sense of place, cultural identity, aesthetic appreciation and inspiration, connection with nature, and education and research. This paper describes a novel approach to collecting data on cultural ecosystem benefits in offshore areas by stationing a cultural ecosystem services researcher on board a research vessel to carry out observational and ethnographic research, and to conduct semi-structured interviews with researchers and crew. The approach draws from humanities and social science methodologies for investigating embodied experiences, emotional responses, and psychological attachments. Results show a wide range of cultural ecosystem benefits associated with offshore, and a high degree of recognition of the sea as a powerful yet vulnerable environment demanding care and respect. Greater understanding of the cultural values of key users of offshore marine ecosystems will help to inform more effective marine management decisions and practices, and there is considerable scope for in situ participatory and observational research as described in this paper to help to achieve a more holistic assessment of marine cultural ecosystem benefits.
Sayers, P. B.; Birkinshaw, S. J.; Carr, S.; He, Y.; Lewis, L.; Smith, B.; Redhead, J.; Pywell, R.; Ford, A.; Virgo, J.; Nicholls, R. J.; Price, J.; Warren, R.; Forstenhäusler, N.; Smith, A.; Russell, A.
A national assessment of natural flood management and its contribution to fluvial flood risk reduction Journal Article
In: Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol. 18, no. 4, 2025, ISSN: 1753-318X, (The underlying HBV and SHETRAN results are available on DAFNI for registered users. Further datasets continued to be added.).
@article{6eddca46464a45b6a8ea63e59fd6adba,
title = {A national assessment of natural flood management and its contribution to fluvial flood risk reduction},
author = {P. B. Sayers and S. J. Birkinshaw and S. Carr and Y. He and L. Lewis and B. Smith and J. Redhead and R. Pywell and A. Ford and J. Virgo and R. J. Nicholls and J. Price and R. Warren and N. Forstenhäusler and A. Smith and A. Russell},
doi = {10.1111/jfr3.70151},
issn = {1753-318X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
volume = {18},
number = {4},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {The desire to promote Natural Flood Management (NFM) has not yet been matched by implementation. In part, this reflects thelack of scientific evidence regarding the ability of NFM measures to contribute to risk reduction at the national scale. Broad scaleunderstanding, as exemplified for Great Britain in this paper, is necessary evidence for policy development and a prerequisitefor implementation at scale. This does not imply a lack of confidence in the wider benefits that NFM provide (for biodiversity,carbon sequestration, well-being and many others), but without credible quantified flood risk reduction evidence, progress hasbeen slow. This paper integrates national-scale hydrological models (using SHETRAN and HBV-TYN) and fluvial flood riskanalysis (using the Future Flood Explorer, FFE) to quantify the flood risk reduction benefits of NFM across Great Britain underconditions of future climate and socio-economic change. An optimisation of these benefits is presented considering alternativeNFM policy ambitions and other demands on land (urban development, agriculture, and biodiversity). The findings suggest NFMhas the potential to make a significant contribution to national flood risk reduction when implemented as part of a portfolio ofmeasures. An optimisation through to 2100 suggests investment in NFM achieves a benefit-to-cost ratio of ~3 to 5 (based on thereduction in Expected Annual Damage (EAD) to residential properties alone). By the 2050s, this equates to an ~£80 m reductionin EAD under a scenario of low population growth and a 2°C rise in global warming by 2100. This increases to £110 m given ascenario of high population growth and a 4°C rise. Assuming current levels of adaptation continue in all other aspects of floodrisk management, this represents ~9%–13% of the reduction in EAD achieved by the portfolio as a whole. By the 2080s, the con-tribution of NFM to risk reduction increases to ~£110 and ~£145 m under these two scenarios. These figures are based on thereduction in EAD to residential properties alone, and do not include the substantial co-benefits that would also accrue.},
note = {The underlying HBV and SHETRAN results are available on DAFNI for registered users. Further datasets continued to be added.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The desire to promote Natural Flood Management (NFM) has not yet been matched by implementation. In part, this reflects thelack of scientific evidence regarding the ability of NFM measures to contribute to risk reduction at the national scale. Broad scaleunderstanding, as exemplified for Great Britain in this paper, is necessary evidence for policy development and a prerequisitefor implementation at scale. This does not imply a lack of confidence in the wider benefits that NFM provide (for biodiversity,carbon sequestration, well-being and many others), but without credible quantified flood risk reduction evidence, progress hasbeen slow. This paper integrates national-scale hydrological models (using SHETRAN and HBV-TYN) and fluvial flood riskanalysis (using the Future Flood Explorer, FFE) to quantify the flood risk reduction benefits of NFM across Great Britain underconditions of future climate and socio-economic change. An optimisation of these benefits is presented considering alternativeNFM policy ambitions and other demands on land (urban development, agriculture, and biodiversity). The findings suggest NFMhas the potential to make a significant contribution to national flood risk reduction when implemented as part of a portfolio ofmeasures. An optimisation through to 2100 suggests investment in NFM achieves a benefit-to-cost ratio of ~3 to 5 (based on thereduction in Expected Annual Damage (EAD) to residential properties alone). By the 2050s, this equates to an ~£80 m reductionin EAD under a scenario of low population growth and a 2°C rise in global warming by 2100. This increases to £110 m given ascenario of high population growth and a 4°C rise. Assuming current levels of adaptation continue in all other aspects of floodrisk management, this represents ~9%–13% of the reduction in EAD achieved by the portfolio as a whole. By the 2080s, the con-tribution of NFM to risk reduction increases to ~£110 and ~£145 m under these two scenarios. These figures are based on thereduction in EAD to residential properties alone, and do not include the substantial co-benefits that would also accrue.
Wilson, Charlie; Arvanitopoulos, Theodoros; Bulian, Simon; Jordan, Andy; Tosun, Jale; Vasilakos, Nicholas
Climate policy portfolios that accelerate emission reductions Journal Article
In: Nature Communications, 2025, ISSN: 2041-1723.
@article{6c07a28b92e14905bcaca43893a6ae30,
title = {Climate policy portfolios that accelerate emission reductions},
author = {Charlie Wilson and Theodoros Arvanitopoulos and Simon Bulian and Andy Jordan and Jale Tosun and Nicholas Vasilakos},
issn = {2041-1723},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-27},
journal = {Nature Communications},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {The corpus of national climate policies continues to grow, but to what effect? Using data on 2,782 policy instruments in 43 OECD countries and major emerging economies over the period 2000–2019 we show that national climate policy portfolios that specialise on certain instrument types and sectors are associated with faster reductions in fossil CO2 emission intensity. Supported by exemplar country case studies, we also provide quantitative evidence that the effectiveness of climate policy is amplified by the presence of long-term emission reduction targets and governmental bodies including dedicated ministries and intergovernmental organisations. Over the study period, the cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by adopting all portfolios amounted to 15.9 GtCO2 of which half was in the emerging economies. Our findings identify what type of climate policy portfolios are best at accelerating emission reductions in line with Paris Agreement goals.},
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The corpus of national climate policies continues to grow, but to what effect? Using data on 2,782 policy instruments in 43 OECD countries and major emerging economies over the period 2000–2019 we show that national climate policy portfolios that specialise on certain instrument types and sectors are associated with faster reductions in fossil CO2 emission intensity. Supported by exemplar country case studies, we also provide quantitative evidence that the effectiveness of climate policy is amplified by the presence of long-term emission reduction targets and governmental bodies including dedicated ministries and intergovernmental organisations. Over the study period, the cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by adopting all portfolios amounted to 15.9 GtCO2 of which half was in the emerging economies. Our findings identify what type of climate policy portfolios are best at accelerating emission reductions in line with Paris Agreement goals.
Jennings, Will; Kenny, John; Roescu, Andra; Smedley, Stuart; Weldon, Kathleen; Enns, Peter K.
In: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 2025, ISSN: 1745-7289.
@article{1e7d54c2f8984a108fede39391d79ddc,
title = {Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the Gallup Poll in Britain, 1955–1991},
author = {Will Jennings and John Kenny and Andra Roescu and Stuart Smedley and Kathleen Weldon and Peter K. Enns},
doi = {10.1080/17457289.2025.2585102},
issn = {1745-7289},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-22},
journal = {Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {From the 1930s to early 2000s, the British affiliate and later subsidiary of the Gallup Organization conducted around three thousand surveys of public opinion in Great Britain. While the records of the headline results of some of these polls can be found in Gallup’s monthly reports and news reports from the time, most of the individual level survey data were previously believed to have been lost. This article details how we have been able to reconstruct much of this important historical record, converting almost 800 survey datasets from 1955 to 1991 found in the archives of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. It first offers a brief overview of how the data were converted from the original column-binary format and what it reveals about methodological practices of Gallup in Britain. We then develop weights to improve the representativeness of the data across the entire time period, using the data to offer a number of insights into long-term trends in British public opinion.},
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From the 1930s to early 2000s, the British affiliate and later subsidiary of the Gallup Organization conducted around three thousand surveys of public opinion in Great Britain. While the records of the headline results of some of these polls can be found in Gallup’s monthly reports and news reports from the time, most of the individual level survey data were previously believed to have been lost. This article details how we have been able to reconstruct much of this important historical record, converting almost 800 survey datasets from 1955 to 1991 found in the archives of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. It first offers a brief overview of how the data were converted from the original column-binary format and what it reveals about methodological practices of Gallup in Britain. We then develop weights to improve the representativeness of the data across the entire time period, using the data to offer a number of insights into long-term trends in British public opinion.
Friedlingstein, Pierre; Quéré, Corinne Le; O’sullivan, Michael; Hauck, Judith; Landschützer, Peter; t. Luijkx, Ingrid; Li, Hongmei; der woude, Auke Van; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Pongratz, Julia; Regnier, Pierre; m. Andrew, Robbie; c. e. Bakker, Dorothee; g. Canadell, Josep; Ciais, Philippe; Gasser, Thomas; w. Jones, Matthew; Lan, Xin; Morgan, Eric; Olsen, Are; p. Peters, Glen; Peters, Wouter; Sitch, Stephen; Tian, Hanqin
Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget Journal Article
In: Nature, 2025, ISSN: 0028-0836.
@article{927a2e137a084499abef532a18d7a573,
title = {Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget},
author = {Pierre Friedlingstein and Corinne Le Quéré and Michael O’sullivan and Judith Hauck and Peter Landschützer and Ingrid t. Luijkx and Hongmei Li and Auke Van der woude and Clemens Schwingshackl and Julia Pongratz and Pierre Regnier and Robbie m. Andrew and Dorothee c. e. Bakker and Josep g. Canadell and Philippe Ciais and Thomas Gasser and Matthew w. Jones and Xin Lan and Eric Morgan and Are Olsen and Glen p. Peters and Wouter Peters and Stephen Sitch and Hanqin Tian},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-025-09802-5},
issn = {0028-0836},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-12},
journal = {Nature},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
keywords = {},
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Lorenzoni, Irene; Jordan, Andrew James; Sullivan-Thomsett, Chantal; Geese, Lucas
A review of National Citizens’ Climate Assemblies: Learning from deliberative events Journal Article
In: Climate Policy, vol. 25, no. 9, pp. 1546–1562, 2025, ISSN: 1469-3062, (Funding information: Funding for this work was generously provided by a European Research Council Advanced Grant ‘DeepDCarb’ (Grant Number 882601) and the UK ESRC Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST, Phases 1 and 2) (ES/S012257/1 and UKRI072).).
@article{1e7b5f9fe6a146fcacc3835aba285d03,
title = {A review of National Citizens’ Climate Assemblies: Learning from deliberative events},
author = {Irene Lorenzoni and Andrew James Jordan and Chantal Sullivan-Thomsett and Lucas Geese},
doi = {10.1080/14693062.2024.2449416},
issn = {1469-3062},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-01},
journal = {Climate Policy},
volume = {25},
number = {9},
pages = {1546–1562},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
abstract = {Citizen’s Climate Assemblies (CCA) have been hailed by academics and non-academics as initiatives to improve the legitimacy and efficacy of climate policy governance. Yet it is only recently that such normative claims have been explored empirically. This article reviews the rapidly emerging literature on citizens’ assemblies – and specifically national citizens’ climate assemblies (NCCAs) – and related deliberative events. It critically reflects upon the emerging themes in the literature and assesses their significance for understanding climate policy and governance. It reveals that advocates of assemblies originally claimed that they would: (1) provide an opportunity to improve the input of evidence into policymaking; (2) raise the political awareness of climate action among citizens and elites; and (3) improve the quality of policymaking. However, a much more nuanced picture of their actual role is beginning to appear. It indicates that each assembly is in fact unique in character, shaped by how it combines design features and the contextual conditions in which they operate. This further affects their impact. Views on NCCAs vary significantly: whilst some politicians are dismissive of their contribution, environmental NGOs have generally been the most supportive; the reception among publics has varied greatly; business and industry have only recently begun to discuss their relevance. Although the recommendations of NCCAs are variously implemented, acknowledgement of their wider and deeper impacts is also emerging, alongside proposals for more systematic assessments of their long-term effects. We reflect on future prospects for NCCAs in relation to political institutions, policy processes and wider society.},
note = {Funding information: Funding for this work was generously provided by a European Research Council Advanced Grant ‘DeepDCarb’ (Grant Number 882601) and the UK ESRC Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST, Phases 1 and 2) (ES/S012257/1 and UKRI072).},
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Citizen’s Climate Assemblies (CCA) have been hailed by academics and non-academics as initiatives to improve the legitimacy and efficacy of climate policy governance. Yet it is only recently that such normative claims have been explored empirically. This article reviews the rapidly emerging literature on citizens’ assemblies – and specifically national citizens’ climate assemblies (NCCAs) – and related deliberative events. It critically reflects upon the emerging themes in the literature and assesses their significance for understanding climate policy and governance. It reveals that advocates of assemblies originally claimed that they would: (1) provide an opportunity to improve the input of evidence into policymaking; (2) raise the political awareness of climate action among citizens and elites; and (3) improve the quality of policymaking. However, a much more nuanced picture of their actual role is beginning to appear. It indicates that each assembly is in fact unique in character, shaped by how it combines design features and the contextual conditions in which they operate. This further affects their impact. Views on NCCAs vary significantly: whilst some politicians are dismissive of their contribution, environmental NGOs have generally been the most supportive; the reception among publics has varied greatly; business and industry have only recently begun to discuss their relevance. Although the recommendations of NCCAs are variously implemented, acknowledgement of their wider and deeper impacts is also emerging, alongside proposals for more systematic assessments of their long-term effects. We reflect on future prospects for NCCAs in relation to political institutions, policy processes and wider society.
Kelley, Douglas I.; Burton, Chantelle; Giuseppe, Francesca Di; Jones, Matthew W.; Barbosa, Maria L. F.; Brambleby, Esther; McNorton, Joe R.; Liu, Zhongwei; Bradley, Anna S. I.; Blackford, Katie; Burke, Eleanor; Ciavarella, Andrew; Tomaso, Enza Di; Eden, Jonathan; Ferreira, Igor José M.; Fiedler, Lukas; Hartley, Andrew J.; Keeping, Theodore R.; Lampe, Seppe; Lombardi, Anna; Mataveli, Guilherme; Qu, Yuquan; Silva, Patrícia S.; Spuler, Fiona R.; Steinmann, Carmen B.; Torres-Vázquez, Miguel Ángel; Veiga, Renata; Wees, Dave; Wessel, Jakob B.; Wright, Emily; Bilbao, Bibiana; Bourbonnais, Mathieu; Gao, Cong; Bella, Carlos M. Di; Dintwe, Kebonye; Donovan, Victoria M.; Harris, Sarah; Kukavskaya, Elena A.; N’Dri, Aya Brigitte; Santín, Cristina; Selaya, Galia; Sjöström, Johan; Abatzoglou, John T.; Andela, Niels; Carmenta, Rachel; Chuvieco, Emilio; Giglio, Louis; Hamilton, Douglas S.; Hantson, Stijn; Meier, Sarah; Parrington, Mark; Sadegh, Mojtaba; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Sedano, Fernando; Turco, Marco; Werf, Guido R.; Veraverbeke, Sander; Anderson, Liana O.; Clarke, Hamish; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Kolden, Crystal A.
State of Wildfires 2024–2025 Journal Article
In: Earth System Science Data, vol. 17, no. 10, pp. 5377–5488, 2025, ISSN: 1866-3508.
@article{66f707419fe546cfbd006d55240aac7e,
title = {State of Wildfires 2024–2025},
author = {Douglas I. Kelley and Chantelle Burton and Francesca Di Giuseppe and Matthew W. Jones and Maria L. F. Barbosa and Esther Brambleby and Joe R. McNorton and Zhongwei Liu and Anna S. I. Bradley and Katie Blackford and Eleanor Burke and Andrew Ciavarella and Enza Di Tomaso and Jonathan Eden and Igor José M. Ferreira and Lukas Fiedler and Andrew J. Hartley and Theodore R. Keeping and Seppe Lampe and Anna Lombardi and Guilherme Mataveli and Yuquan Qu and Patrícia S. Silva and Fiona R. Spuler and Carmen B. Steinmann and Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez and Renata Veiga and Dave Wees and Jakob B. Wessel and Emily Wright and Bibiana Bilbao and Mathieu Bourbonnais and Cong Gao and Carlos M. Di Bella and Kebonye Dintwe and Victoria M. Donovan and Sarah Harris and Elena A. Kukavskaya and Aya Brigitte N’Dri and Cristina Santín and Galia Selaya and Johan Sjöström and John T. Abatzoglou and Niels Andela and Rachel Carmenta and Emilio Chuvieco and Louis Giglio and Douglas S. Hamilton and Stijn Hantson and Sarah Meier and Mark Parrington and Mojtaba Sadegh and Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz and Fernando Sedano and Marco Turco and Guido R. Werf and Sander Veraverbeke and Liana O. Anderson and Hamish Clarke and Paulo M. Fernandes and Crystal A. Kolden},
doi = {10.5194/essd-17-5377-2025},
issn = {1866-3508},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-16},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
volume = {17},
number = {10},
pages = {5377–5488},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
abstract = {Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires globally, yet our understanding of these high-impact events remains uneven and shaped by media attention and regional research biases. The State of Wildfires project systematically tracks global and regional fire activity of each annual fire season, analyses the causes of prominent extreme wildfire events, and projects the likelihood of similar events occurring in future climate scenarios. This, its second annual report, covers the March 2024 to February 2025 fire season. During the 2024–2025 fire season, fire-related carbon (C) emissions totalled 2.2 Pg C, 9 % above average and the sixth highest on record since 2003, despite below-average global burned area (BA). Extreme fire seasons in South America’s rainforests, dry forests, and wetlands and in Canada’s boreal forests pushed up the global C emissions total. Fire C emissions were over 4 times above average in Bolivia, 3 times above average in Canada, and ∼ 50 % above average in Brazil and Venezuela. Wildfires in 2024–2025 caused 100 fatalities in Nepal, 34 in South Africa, and 31 in Los Angeles, with additional fatalities reported in Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, Portugal, and Türkiye. The Eaton and Palisades fires in Southern California caused 150 000 evacuations and USD 140 billion in damages. Communities in Brazil, Bolivia, Southern California, and northern India were exposed to fine particulate matter at concentrations 13–60 times WHO’s daily air quality standards. We evaluated the causes and predictability of four extreme wildfire episodes from the 2024–2025 fire season, including in Northeast Amazonia (January–March 2024), the Pantanal–Chiquitano border regions of Brazil and Bolivia (August–September 2024), Southern California (January 2025), and the Congo Basin (July–August 2024). Anomalous weather created conditions for these regional extremes, while fuel availability and human ignitions shaped spatial patterns and temporal fire dynamics. In the three tropical regions, prolonged drought was the dominant fire enabler, whereas in California, extreme heat, wind, and antecedent fuel build-up were compounding enablers. Our attribution analyses show that climate change made extreme fire weather in Northeast Amazonia 30–70 times more likely, increasing BA roughly 4-fold compared to a scenario without climate change. In the Pantanal–Chiquitano, fire weather was 4–5 times more likely, with 35-fold increases in BA. Meanwhile, our analyses suggest that BA was 25 times higher in Southern California due to climate change. The Congo Basin’s fire weather was 3–8 times more likely with climate change, with a 2.7-fold increase in BA. Socioeconomic changes since the pre-industrial period, including land-use change, also likely increased BA in Northeast Amazonia. Our models project that events on the scale of 2024–2025 will become up to 57 %, 34 %, and 50 % more frequent than in the modern era in Northeast Amazonia, the Pantanal–Chiquitano, and the Congo Basin, respectively, under a medium–high scenario (SSP370) by 2100. Climate action can limit the added risk, with frequency increases held to below 15 % in all three regions under a strong mitigation scenario (SSP126). In Southern California, the future trajectory of extreme fire likelihood remains highly uncertain due to poorly constrained climate–vegetation–fire interactions influencing fuel moisture, though our models suggest that risk may decline in future. This annual report from the State of Wildfires project integrates and advances cutting-edge fire observations and modelling with regional expertise to track changing global wildfire hazard, guiding policy and practice towards improved preparedness, mitigation, adaptation, and societal benefit. Thirteen new datasets and model codebases presented in this work are available from the State of Wildfires Project’s Zenodo community, including updated annual statistics on wildfire extent (Jones et al., 2025; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15525674), outputs from modelling of fire causality using PoF model (Di Giuseppe, 2025; https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.8570224.v1) and codebase for the extreme event attribution/projections model, ConFLAME (Barbosa et al., 2025a, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16790787).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires globally, yet our understanding of these high-impact events remains uneven and shaped by media attention and regional research biases. The State of Wildfires project systematically tracks global and regional fire activity of each annual fire season, analyses the causes of prominent extreme wildfire events, and projects the likelihood of similar events occurring in future climate scenarios. This, its second annual report, covers the March 2024 to February 2025 fire season. During the 2024–2025 fire season, fire-related carbon (C) emissions totalled 2.2 Pg C, 9 % above average and the sixth highest on record since 2003, despite below-average global burned area (BA). Extreme fire seasons in South America’s rainforests, dry forests, and wetlands and in Canada’s boreal forests pushed up the global C emissions total. Fire C emissions were over 4 times above average in Bolivia, 3 times above average in Canada, and ∼ 50 % above average in Brazil and Venezuela. Wildfires in 2024–2025 caused 100 fatalities in Nepal, 34 in South Africa, and 31 in Los Angeles, with additional fatalities reported in Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, Portugal, and Türkiye. The Eaton and Palisades fires in Southern California caused 150 000 evacuations and USD 140 billion in damages. Communities in Brazil, Bolivia, Southern California, and northern India were exposed to fine particulate matter at concentrations 13–60 times WHO’s daily air quality standards. We evaluated the causes and predictability of four extreme wildfire episodes from the 2024–2025 fire season, including in Northeast Amazonia (January–March 2024), the Pantanal–Chiquitano border regions of Brazil and Bolivia (August–September 2024), Southern California (January 2025), and the Congo Basin (July–August 2024). Anomalous weather created conditions for these regional extremes, while fuel availability and human ignitions shaped spatial patterns and temporal fire dynamics. In the three tropical regions, prolonged drought was the dominant fire enabler, whereas in California, extreme heat, wind, and antecedent fuel build-up were compounding enablers. Our attribution analyses show that climate change made extreme fire weather in Northeast Amazonia 30–70 times more likely, increasing BA roughly 4-fold compared to a scenario without climate change. In the Pantanal–Chiquitano, fire weather was 4–5 times more likely, with 35-fold increases in BA. Meanwhile, our analyses suggest that BA was 25 times higher in Southern California due to climate change. The Congo Basin’s fire weather was 3–8 times more likely with climate change, with a 2.7-fold increase in BA. Socioeconomic changes since the pre-industrial period, including land-use change, also likely increased BA in Northeast Amazonia. Our models project that events on the scale of 2024–2025 will become up to 57 %, 34 %, and 50 % more frequent than in the modern era in Northeast Amazonia, the Pantanal–Chiquitano, and the Congo Basin, respectively, under a medium–high scenario (SSP370) by 2100. Climate action can limit the added risk, with frequency increases held to below 15 % in all three regions under a strong mitigation scenario (SSP126). In Southern California, the future trajectory of extreme fire likelihood remains highly uncertain due to poorly constrained climate–vegetation–fire interactions influencing fuel moisture, though our models suggest that risk may decline in future. This annual report from the State of Wildfires project integrates and advances cutting-edge fire observations and modelling with regional expertise to track changing global wildfire hazard, guiding policy and practice towards improved preparedness, mitigation, adaptation, and societal benefit. Thirteen new datasets and model codebases presented in this work are available from the State of Wildfires Project’s Zenodo community, including updated annual statistics on wildfire extent (Jones et al., 2025; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15525674), outputs from modelling of fire causality using PoF model (Di Giuseppe, 2025; https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.8570224.v1) and codebase for the extreme event attribution/projections model, ConFLAME (Barbosa et al., 2025a, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16790787).
Wang, Yafei; Ye, Yuxuan; Nicholls, Robert J.; Olsson, Lennart; Vuuren, Detlef P.; Peterson, Garry; He, Yao; Li, Manchun; Fan, Jie; Scown, Murray
Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise Journal Article
In: Nature Climate Change, vol. 15, pp. 1071–1077, 2025, ISSN: 1758-678X, (Data availability: The projected land-system maps for five policy scenarios, together with associated validation datasets and sampling points for projecting land subsidence, are available via figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29263130 (ref. 55). The input data used in CLUMondo for land-system change simulations are cited throughout the paper, with full details provided in Supplementary Note 4 and Supplementary Table 4. The SLR data were obtained from the IPCC AR6 database, available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6382554 (ref. 43), while tide and surge data were sourced from the CoDEC dataset, available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3660927 (ref. 56). The CoastalDEM were acquired from Climate Central (https://go.climatecentral.org) and MDT data were obtained from AVISO (https://doi.org/10.24400/527896/a01-2023.003). Sources for explanatory factors used in predicting land-subsidence rates are listed in Supplementary Table 7. All data supporting this study are provided with the paper. Code availability: The CLUMondo model is publicly available via GitHub at https://github.com/VUEG/CLUMondo. Python scripts used for projecting land subsidence and generating figures can be accessed via figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29263130 (ref. 55). The improved geometric inundation model, which incorporates hydrological connectivity and attenuation, is available via GitHub at https://github.com/geoye/attenuated_bathtub. Additional code supporting the findings of this study is available from the corresponding authors upon reasonable request.).
@article{054c130b11744816a4d5f4bff9cad232,
title = {Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise},
author = {Yafei Wang and Yuxuan Ye and Robert J. Nicholls and Lennart Olsson and Detlef P. Vuuren and Garry Peterson and Yao He and Manchun Li and Jie Fan and Murray Scown},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-025-02439-2},
issn = {1758-678X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-01},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {15},
pages = {1071–1077},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {Effective coastal exposure assessments are crucial for adaptively managing threats from sea-level rise (SLR). Despite recent advances, global and regional assessments are constrained by omitting critical factors such as land-use change, failing to disaggregate potential impacts by land uses and oversimplifying land subsidence. Here we address these gaps by developing context-specific scenarios to 2100 based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies. We integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land-system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate SLR, land subsidence, tides and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks. Across our plausible set of downscaled scenarios of shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, policy decisions have a bigger effect on what is exposed to coastal flooding until 2100 than does the magnitude of SLR. Hence, coastal policy decisions largely influence coastal risk and adaptation needs to 2100, demonstrating the necessity of appropriate policy design to manage coastal risks.},
note = {Data availability: The projected land-system maps for five policy scenarios, together with associated validation datasets and sampling points for projecting land subsidence, are available via figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29263130 (ref. 55). The input data used in CLUMondo for land-system change simulations are cited throughout the paper, with full details provided in Supplementary Note 4 and Supplementary Table 4. The SLR data were obtained from the IPCC AR6 database, available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6382554 (ref. 43), while tide and surge data were sourced from the CoDEC dataset, available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3660927 (ref. 56). The CoastalDEM were acquired from Climate Central (https://go.climatecentral.org) and MDT data were obtained from AVISO (https://doi.org/10.24400/527896/a01-2023.003). Sources for explanatory factors used in predicting land-subsidence rates are listed in Supplementary Table 7. All data supporting this study are provided with the paper. Code availability: The CLUMondo model is publicly available via GitHub at https://github.com/VUEG/CLUMondo. Python scripts used for projecting land subsidence and generating figures can be accessed via figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29263130 (ref. 55). The improved geometric inundation model, which incorporates hydrological connectivity and attenuation, is available via GitHub at https://github.com/geoye/attenuated_bathtub. Additional code supporting the findings of this study is available from the corresponding authors upon reasonable request.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Effective coastal exposure assessments are crucial for adaptively managing threats from sea-level rise (SLR). Despite recent advances, global and regional assessments are constrained by omitting critical factors such as land-use change, failing to disaggregate potential impacts by land uses and oversimplifying land subsidence. Here we address these gaps by developing context-specific scenarios to 2100 based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies. We integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land-system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate SLR, land subsidence, tides and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks. Across our plausible set of downscaled scenarios of shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, policy decisions have a bigger effect on what is exposed to coastal flooding until 2100 than does the magnitude of SLR. Hence, coastal policy decisions largely influence coastal risk and adaptation needs to 2100, demonstrating the necessity of appropriate policy design to manage coastal risks.
Jenkins, Katie L.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Sayers, Paul
Climate change adaptation in the port industry: Evaluating evidence of implemented adaptation using a national adaptation inventory Journal Article
In: Earth's Future, vol. 13, no. 10, 2025, ISSN: 2328-4277, (Data Availability Statement: The data on which this article is based are available in Jenkins, K., Ford, A., Robson, C., & Nicholls, R. J. (2022b). UK adaptation inventory database. (Version 2) [Database]. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/4Z9N3. Funding information: KJ, RN and PS acknowledge support from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through the OpenCLIM (Open CLimate Impacts modelling framework) project (NE/T013931/1). RN and PS acknowledge support provided through the CoCliCo Project (Coastal Climate Core Services) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program grant agreement number 101003598.).
@article{c3fbfa581eeb4e26a6c83d5e78546c03,
title = {Climate change adaptation in the port industry: Evaluating evidence of implemented adaptation using a national adaptation inventory},
author = {Katie L. Jenkins and Robert J. Nicholls and Paul Sayers},
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.5336027},
issn = {2328-4277},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-01},
journal = {Earth's Future},
volume = {13},
number = {10},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Ports provide critical infrastructure services, supporting global trade, economic growth and development. Owing to their exposed coastal locations, ports are expected to face increasing climate-related risks, such as sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in storminess. However, there is a gap in current literature evaluating how ports are addressing climate-related risks through implementation of adaptation actions. This study explores if, and how, some of the largest commercial ports in the UK are adapting to risk in practice. Evidence of implemented adaptation action is extracted from Adaptation Reporting Power (ARP) reports, as mandated under the UK Climate Change Act 2008. Evidence of incremental adaptation was identified, in response to an increasingly diverse range of perceived climate-related risks. However, uncertainty around future changes in some climate-related risks, and different risk perceptions, meant ports were also coming to different judgments on when and how they should adapt. A discord between short and longer-term planning was also identified. Consequently, there remains the need to shift thinking from business-as-usual toward a more systematic and integrated consideration of short- and longer-term climate risks, adaptation and wider benefits to support decision making. This would align with a more transformational adaptation approach. This could include exploiting the renewal and investment cycle so new port infrastructure is climate-proofed when constructed. The framework presented here, to identify, catalog and evaluate implemented adaptation actions in the UK, could be applied to other regions. This would provide a more comprehensive picture of how ports are implementing adaptation globally.},
note = {Data Availability Statement: The data on which this article is based are available in Jenkins, K., Ford, A., Robson, C., & Nicholls, R. J. (2022b). UK adaptation inventory database. (Version 2) [Database]. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/4Z9N3. Funding information: KJ, RN and PS acknowledge support from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through the OpenCLIM (Open CLimate Impacts modelling framework) project (NE/T013931/1). RN and PS acknowledge support provided through the CoCliCo Project (Coastal Climate Core Services) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program grant agreement number 101003598.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Ports provide critical infrastructure services, supporting global trade, economic growth and development. Owing to their exposed coastal locations, ports are expected to face increasing climate-related risks, such as sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in storminess. However, there is a gap in current literature evaluating how ports are addressing climate-related risks through implementation of adaptation actions. This study explores if, and how, some of the largest commercial ports in the UK are adapting to risk in practice. Evidence of implemented adaptation action is extracted from Adaptation Reporting Power (ARP) reports, as mandated under the UK Climate Change Act 2008. Evidence of incremental adaptation was identified, in response to an increasingly diverse range of perceived climate-related risks. However, uncertainty around future changes in some climate-related risks, and different risk perceptions, meant ports were also coming to different judgments on when and how they should adapt. A discord between short and longer-term planning was also identified. Consequently, there remains the need to shift thinking from business-as-usual toward a more systematic and integrated consideration of short- and longer-term climate risks, adaptation and wider benefits to support decision making. This would align with a more transformational adaptation approach. This could include exploiting the renewal and investment cycle so new port infrastructure is climate-proofed when constructed. The framework presented here, to identify, catalog and evaluate implemented adaptation actions in the UK, could be applied to other regions. This would provide a more comprehensive picture of how ports are implementing adaptation globally.
Dewally, K.; Bark, R. H.; Harwood, A. R.; Lovett, A. A.
Learning from the past and embracing future opportunities: Perceptions of new Environmental Land Management Schemes and private nature markets Journal Article
In: Journal of Rural Studies, vol. 119, 2025, ISSN: 0743-0167, (Data availability statement: The authors do not have permission to share data.).
@article{1a6c966a24f14d639dd5335625e0baaa,
title = {Learning from the past and embracing future opportunities: Perceptions of new Environmental Land Management Schemes and private nature markets},
author = {K. Dewally and R. H. Bark and A. R. Harwood and A. A. Lovett},
doi = {10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103723},
issn = {0743-0167},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-01},
journal = {Journal of Rural Studies},
volume = {119},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The combination of Brexit and UK government targets, e.g., to address climate change and biodiversity loss, has accelerated the development of new Agri-environmental Scheme (AES), the Environmental Land Management Schemes (ELMS). To improve ELMS design and implementation, it is timely to understand farmers' and farm advisers’ views on these schemes, including their design, rollout and fit with pre-existing and new nature markets, e.g., carbon, Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG). Previous research has assessed AES for their attractiveness to farmers and effectiveness. This study examines new challenges associated with the increasing role of the private sector in funding nature recovery on farms, expected increased levels of participation and an increased requirement for collaboration to deliver landscape-scale nature recovery. To understand how this new policy landscape is perceived by the agricultural sector, 18 interviews were conducted with farmers and advisors (farmer advisors and nature market experts). Findings show that perceptions are shaped by previous involvement with AES (e.g., payment rates, participation costs, inflexibility) which although largely negative, highlight areas for better scheme design. New insights on farmer participation emphasise the roles of policy uncertainty, market integrity concerns, and collaboration, including with non-farmers, e.g., conservation organisations, water companies. Slow policy release was stressed as a key reason for low adoption and underscores the importance of aligning AES incentives with policy objectives. Furthermore, participants raised a need for cross market compatibility, compliance flexibility and fundamental questions about achieving carbon neutrality as a prerequisite for carbon market participation. On the positive side, participants agreed that new schemes/markets are breaking down social barriers through the necessity to work with a wider group of stakeholders and have been a driver for increasing interest in farm clusters.},
note = {Data availability statement: The authors do not have permission to share data.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The combination of Brexit and UK government targets, e.g., to address climate change and biodiversity loss, has accelerated the development of new Agri-environmental Scheme (AES), the Environmental Land Management Schemes (ELMS). To improve ELMS design and implementation, it is timely to understand farmers' and farm advisers’ views on these schemes, including their design, rollout and fit with pre-existing and new nature markets, e.g., carbon, Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG). Previous research has assessed AES for their attractiveness to farmers and effectiveness. This study examines new challenges associated with the increasing role of the private sector in funding nature recovery on farms, expected increased levels of participation and an increased requirement for collaboration to deliver landscape-scale nature recovery. To understand how this new policy landscape is perceived by the agricultural sector, 18 interviews were conducted with farmers and advisors (farmer advisors and nature market experts). Findings show that perceptions are shaped by previous involvement with AES (e.g., payment rates, participation costs, inflexibility) which although largely negative, highlight areas for better scheme design. New insights on farmer participation emphasise the roles of policy uncertainty, market integrity concerns, and collaboration, including with non-farmers, e.g., conservation organisations, water companies. Slow policy release was stressed as a key reason for low adoption and underscores the importance of aligning AES incentives with policy objectives. Furthermore, participants raised a need for cross market compatibility, compliance flexibility and fundamental questions about achieving carbon neutrality as a prerequisite for carbon market participation. On the positive side, participants agreed that new schemes/markets are breaking down social barriers through the necessity to work with a wider group of stakeholders and have been a driver for increasing interest in farm clusters.
Okello, Julius Juma; Just, David R.; Verschoor, Arjan; Mulwa, Chalmers; Xie, Mingcong; Ojwang, Sylvester; Namanda, Sam; Yada, Benard; Ssali, Reuben; Okim, Moses Bunsen; Mutiso, Janet Mwende; Rajendran, Srinivasulu; Campos, Hugo
Behavioral interventions in informal seed systems to nudge sustainable demand for quality seed of sweetpotato Journal Article
In: Agricultural Systems, vol. 229, 2025, ISSN: 0308-521X, (Data availability: Data will be made available on request. Acknowledgments: This research was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), through its investment [OPP1213329] awarded to the International Potato Center (SweetGAINS); the CGIAR Initiative on Market Intelligence; Program for Seed System Innovation for Vegetatively propagated Crops in Africa (PROSSIVA) Project; and the CGIAR Initiative on Seed Equal. We also acknowledge research assistance support from Edwin Sserekumma, Harriet Ayoko, and John Robert Otukei, and logistical support from Dennis Odeke.).
@article{ff34595773064f32b52b8d875c4b1671,
title = {Behavioral interventions in informal seed systems to nudge sustainable demand for quality seed of sweetpotato},
author = {Julius Juma Okello and David R. Just and Arjan Verschoor and Chalmers Mulwa and Mingcong Xie and Sylvester Ojwang and Sam Namanda and Benard Yada and Reuben Ssali and Moses Bunsen Okim and Janet Mwende Mutiso and Srinivasulu Rajendran and Hugo Campos},
doi = {10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104421},
issn = {0308-521X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-01},
journal = {Agricultural Systems},
volume = {229},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {CONTEXT: The introduction of quality-certified seed (QCS) in the informal farmer network-based seed systems, which have largely relied on informal signals of quality, represents a promising innovation towards integrated seed sector development, combining formal and informal sector elements. At the same time, behavioral nudges have emerged as potentially powerful ways to encourage the uptake of innovations among smallholder farmers in developing countries. OBJECTIVE: Here we examine whether nudges may be used to influence adoption rates of QCS in an informal seed system. METHODS: We focused on the use of text message reminders to increase the repurchase of sweetpotato vines that are certified to be free of pests and diseases. Our study site was a sweetpotato growing district in Uganda where yield is severely depressed due to sweetpotato virus disease and sweetpotato weevils. We used a randomized controlled trial involving 120 village clusters to test the effectiveness of text message reminders. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We observe some indication that initial text reminders increased the likelihood of repurchase. In subsequent seasons, additional reminders reduced this likelihood. This suggests that simple reminders may be a useful tool to encourage the swifter integration of formal and informal elements in seed systems, but that their repeated use may be counterproductive. SIGNIFICANCE: This study highlights the potential and limitations of using behavioral nudges to promote sustainable demand for quality seed in informal seed systems. Text reminders can initially encourage adoption of quality seed. However, careful consideration is needed regarding their frequency and implementation to avoid negative effects.},
note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request. Acknowledgments: This research was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), through its investment [OPP1213329] awarded to the International Potato Center (SweetGAINS); the CGIAR Initiative on Market Intelligence; Program for Seed System Innovation for Vegetatively propagated Crops in Africa (PROSSIVA) Project; and the CGIAR Initiative on Seed Equal. We also acknowledge research assistance support from Edwin Sserekumma, Harriet Ayoko, and John Robert Otukei, and logistical support from Dennis Odeke.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
CONTEXT: The introduction of quality-certified seed (QCS) in the informal farmer network-based seed systems, which have largely relied on informal signals of quality, represents a promising innovation towards integrated seed sector development, combining formal and informal sector elements. At the same time, behavioral nudges have emerged as potentially powerful ways to encourage the uptake of innovations among smallholder farmers in developing countries. OBJECTIVE: Here we examine whether nudges may be used to influence adoption rates of QCS in an informal seed system. METHODS: We focused on the use of text message reminders to increase the repurchase of sweetpotato vines that are certified to be free of pests and diseases. Our study site was a sweetpotato growing district in Uganda where yield is severely depressed due to sweetpotato virus disease and sweetpotato weevils. We used a randomized controlled trial involving 120 village clusters to test the effectiveness of text message reminders. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We observe some indication that initial text reminders increased the likelihood of repurchase. In subsequent seasons, additional reminders reduced this likelihood. This suggests that simple reminders may be a useful tool to encourage the swifter integration of formal and informal elements in seed systems, but that their repeated use may be counterproductive. SIGNIFICANCE: This study highlights the potential and limitations of using behavioral nudges to promote sustainable demand for quality seed in informal seed systems. Text reminders can initially encourage adoption of quality seed. However, careful consideration is needed regarding their frequency and implementation to avoid negative effects.
Turnpenny, John
A critical political analysis of wellbeing support for postgraduate researchers in higher education Journal Article
In: Policy & Politics, pp. 689–710, 2025, ISSN: 0305-5736.
@article{fef1e50cb23240fea2193e4cfece91fa,
title = {A critical political analysis of wellbeing support for postgraduate researchers in higher education},
author = {John Turnpenny},
doi = {10.1332/03055736Y2024D000000056},
issn = {0305-5736},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-01},
journal = {Policy & Politics},
pages = {689–710},
publisher = {Policy Press},
abstract = {While improving wellbeing is a prominent policy goal, political analysis of wellbeing is a vital but to date under-researched sub-field. This article is focused on the politics surrounding concern about the wellbeing of postgraduate researchers (PGRs) at higher education institutions in the UK. There have been several recent policy interventions to support PGR wellbeing within the context of ongoing debate about the status of PGRs, including whether they are students or staff. This article asks how and why PGRs’ status ambiguity affects the policy capacities to support PGR wellbeing. It does this through an analysis of capacities to steer, design and benefit from interventions. It is based on 15 interviews with individuals who had prominent leadership roles in recent ‘flagship’ PGR support projects, analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. It shows that while support for PGR wellbeing features prominently in the UK policy context, there appear to be gaps in the effective design and implementation of that support. Specifically, there is evidence of low political capacity at Individual, Organisational and Systemic levels, which leads to significant gaps in operational capacity. These in turn can amplify low political capacity. The article concludes with some implications for a political analysis of wellbeing, consequent policy implications, and some promising lines for future research.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
While improving wellbeing is a prominent policy goal, political analysis of wellbeing is a vital but to date under-researched sub-field. This article is focused on the politics surrounding concern about the wellbeing of postgraduate researchers (PGRs) at higher education institutions in the UK. There have been several recent policy interventions to support PGR wellbeing within the context of ongoing debate about the status of PGRs, including whether they are students or staff. This article asks how and why PGRs’ status ambiguity affects the policy capacities to support PGR wellbeing. It does this through an analysis of capacities to steer, design and benefit from interventions. It is based on 15 interviews with individuals who had prominent leadership roles in recent ‘flagship’ PGR support projects, analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. It shows that while support for PGR wellbeing features prominently in the UK policy context, there appear to be gaps in the effective design and implementation of that support. Specifically, there is evidence of low political capacity at Individual, Organisational and Systemic levels, which leads to significant gaps in operational capacity. These in turn can amplify low political capacity. The article concludes with some implications for a political analysis of wellbeing, consequent policy implications, and some promising lines for future research.
Maguire, Duncan; Michaelides, George; Tregaskis, Olga
The goal proximity of employee green behaviour: Validating and refining the Green Five taxonomy Journal Article
In: Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 393, 2025, ISSN: 0301-4797, (Data availability: Data will be made available on request.).
@article{246ed75d73b545ffac121d5265b40c81,
title = {The goal proximity of employee green behaviour: Validating and refining the Green Five taxonomy},
author = {Duncan Maguire and George Michaelides and Olga Tregaskis},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126877},
issn = {0301-4797},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-01},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
volume = {393},
publisher = {Academic Press Inc.},
abstract = {Employee green behaviours (EGB) is a burgeoning subject, and recent reviews point to the need for conceptual and scale development. We present a new scale based on the goal proximity of EGB. This distinction is embedded within the Green Five and is more conceptually appropriate than the direct-indirect distinction. Using data from 455 participants across the UK and USA, we applied confirmatory factor analysis and multiple regression to evaluate construct validity and the strength of associations in the nomological network. This scale has good psychometric properties capturing the multidimensionality of EGB. The findings introduce a new way to distinguish EGB that focuses on the outcome of the behaviour. This new perspective furthers the theoretical depth of EGB, through the combination of multiple conceptualizations.},
note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Employee green behaviours (EGB) is a burgeoning subject, and recent reviews point to the need for conceptual and scale development. We present a new scale based on the goal proximity of EGB. This distinction is embedded within the Green Five and is more conceptually appropriate than the direct-indirect distinction. Using data from 455 participants across the UK and USA, we applied confirmatory factor analysis and multiple regression to evaluate construct validity and the strength of associations in the nomological network. This scale has good psychometric properties capturing the multidimensionality of EGB. The findings introduce a new way to distinguish EGB that focuses on the outcome of the behaviour. This new perspective furthers the theoretical depth of EGB, through the combination of multiple conceptualizations.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Kenny, John; Leiter, Debra; Murr, Andreas Erwin; Ogili, Onyinye B.; Stegmaier, Mary; Tien, Charles
Election forecasting: Political economy models Journal Article
In: International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 41, no. 4, pp. 1655–1665, 2025, ISSN: 0169-2070.
@article{0128a46e7af54b12a1dd218717da8d66,
title = {Election forecasting: Political economy models},
author = {Michael S. Lewis-Beck and John Kenny and Debra Leiter and Andreas Erwin Murr and Onyinye B. Ogili and Mary Stegmaier and Charles Tien},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.02.006},
issn = {0169-2070},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-01},
journal = {International Journal of Forecasting},
volume = {41},
number = {4},
pages = {1655–1665},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely known approach; however, the lesser-known political economy models take a different scientific tack, relying on regression analysis and voting theory, particularly the force of “fundamentals.” We begin our discussion with two advanced industrial democracies, the US and UK. We then examine two less frequently forecasted cases, Mexico and Ghana, to highlight the potential for political-economic forecasting and the challenges faced. In evaluating the performance of political economy models, we argue for their accuracy but do not neglect lead time, parsimony, and transparency. Furthermore, we suggest how the political economic approach can be adapted to the changing landscape that democratic electorates face.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
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We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely known approach; however, the lesser-known political economy models take a different scientific tack, relying on regression analysis and voting theory, particularly the force of “fundamentals.” We begin our discussion with two advanced industrial democracies, the US and UK. We then examine two less frequently forecasted cases, Mexico and Ghana, to highlight the potential for political-economic forecasting and the challenges faced. In evaluating the performance of political economy models, we argue for their accuracy but do not neglect lead time, parsimony, and transparency. Furthermore, we suggest how the political economic approach can be adapted to the changing landscape that democratic electorates face.
Hast, Marisa; Baker-Austin, Craig; Lake, Iain; Paromita, Pritiza; Cui, Zhaohui; Jones, Natalia R.; Posen, Paulette; Hughes, Michael J.
Vibrio vulnificus epidemiology and risk factors for mortality in the United States, 2000-2022 Journal Article
In: Infectious Diseases, 2025, ISSN: 2374-4243.
@article{dcaa5fe6e06644ada7ea3bb030e1b077,
title = {Vibrio vulnificus epidemiology and risk factors for mortality in the United States, 2000-2022},
author = {Marisa Hast and Craig Baker-Austin and Iain Lake and Pritiza Paromita and Zhaohui Cui and Natalia R. Jones and Paulette Posen and Michael J. Hughes},
doi = {10.1080/23744235.2025.2559883},
issn = {2374-4243},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-09-22},
journal = {Infectious Diseases},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
abstract = {Background: Vibrio vulnificus is a foodborne and waterborne pathogen causing substantial morbidity and mortality; however, its epidemiology remains poorly understood. To inform prevention and control efforts, we characterized U.S. V. vulnificus epidemiology and identified risk factors for mortality. Methods: For all culture-confirmed V. vulnificus cases reported to the Cholera and Other Vibrio Illness Surveillance (COVIS) system from 2000 to 2022, patient characteristics and medical outcomes were described by foodborne vs. non-foodborne transmission routes. Risk factors for mortality were identified using multivariate logistic regression. Results: Two thousand nine hundred and eighty-nine V. vulnificus cases were reported from 2000 to 2022, including 656 (22%) foodborne and 1,619 (54%) non-foodborne cases. Five-year case total increased 70% from 2000–2004 (n = 487) to 2018–2022 (n = 827). Most patients were male, older and White, with reported underlying health conditions; 2,493 (83%) patients were hospitalized and 692 (23%) died. Number of deaths (260 vs. 200) and fatality rate (40% vs. 12%) were higher among foodborne vs. non-foodborne cases. Mortality was associated with history of liver disease/alcoholism (odds ratio (OR) = 6.5, p < 0.001), age 45–59 (OR = 11.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Background: Vibrio vulnificus is a foodborne and waterborne pathogen causing substantial morbidity and mortality; however, its epidemiology remains poorly understood. To inform prevention and control efforts, we characterized U.S. V. vulnificus epidemiology and identified risk factors for mortality. Methods: For all culture-confirmed V. vulnificus cases reported to the Cholera and Other Vibrio Illness Surveillance (COVIS) system from 2000 to 2022, patient characteristics and medical outcomes were described by foodborne vs. non-foodborne transmission routes. Risk factors for mortality were identified using multivariate logistic regression. Results: Two thousand nine hundred and eighty-nine V. vulnificus cases were reported from 2000 to 2022, including 656 (22%) foodborne and 1,619 (54%) non-foodborne cases. Five-year case total increased 70% from 2000–2004 (n = 487) to 2018–2022 (n = 827). Most patients were male, older and White, with reported underlying health conditions; 2,493 (83%) patients were hospitalized and 692 (23%) died. Number of deaths (260 vs. 200) and fatality rate (40% vs. 12%) were higher among foodborne vs. non-foodborne cases. Mortality was associated with history of liver disease/alcoholism (odds ratio (OR) = 6.5, p < 0.001), age 45–59 (OR = 11.
Ebi, Kristie L.; Bi, Peng; Bowen, Kathryn; Brauer, Michael; Chua, Paul L. C.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Dimitrova, Asya; Gasparrini, Antonio; Gouveia, Nelson; Hajat, Shakoor; Hamilton, Ian; Harper, Sherilee; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Hashizume, Masahiro; Heaviside, Clare; Honda, Yasushi; Green, Carole; Jack, Chris; Kim, Ho; Kinney, Patrick; Kone, Brama; Kovats, Sari; Lloyd, Simon J.; Morse, Andrew P.; Ogden, Nicholas H.; Paz, Shlomit; Price, Jeff; Ryan, Sadie J.; Semenza, Jan C.; Sheehan, Timothy; Taylor, Rachael; Ruijven, Bas; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Warren, Rachel; Zaitchik, Ben; Hess, Jeremy J.
Priority climate and health modelling needs Journal Article
In: The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 9, no. 9, 2025, ISSN: 2542-5196, (Acknowledgments: Funding from Wellcome and thank Ms Marci Burden, University of Washington, for project management. The authors also acknowledge the valuable comments from the anonymous reviewers coordinated by the journal Environmental Health Perspectives and acknowledge the support of Lancet Planetary Health in the publication of this Personal View after Environmental Health Perspectives ceased publication.).
@article{26091454d6da4b01ae2cbfc7c5b0d45e,
title = {Priority climate and health modelling needs},
author = {Kristie L. Ebi and Peng Bi and Kathryn Bowen and Michael Brauer and Paul L. C. Chua and Felipe J. Colón-González and Asya Dimitrova and Antonio Gasparrini and Nelson Gouveia and Shakoor Hajat and Ian Hamilton and Sherilee Harper and Tomoko Hasegawa and Masahiro Hashizume and Clare Heaviside and Yasushi Honda and Carole Green and Chris Jack and Ho Kim and Patrick Kinney and Brama Kone and Sari Kovats and Simon J. Lloyd and Andrew P. Morse and Nicholas H. Ogden and Shlomit Paz and Jeff Price and Sadie J. Ryan and Jan C. Semenza and Timothy Sheehan and Rachael Taylor and Bas Ruijven and Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera and Rachel Warren and Ben Zaitchik and Jeremy J. Hess},
doi = {10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101297},
issn = {2542-5196},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-09-01},
journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health},
volume = {9},
number = {9},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Climate and health modelling is necessary for improving understanding of the current and future distribution and timing of climate-related health risks. However, underinvestment in this area has limited the understanding required to inform policies that enable multisectoral interventions to safeguard health. We synthesised insights from a survey of 65 global climate and health modelling experts and 36 participants in a hybrid meeting to identify priority strategies for enhancing the validity, utility, and policy relevance of climate and health models. Foundational investments to support modelling included strengthening research capacity, establishing a network of multinational centres of excellence for transdisciplinary research and capacity building, improving data collection and sharing infrastructure, investing in scenario development and quantitative elaboration, assessing adaptation effectiveness, and committing to intermodel comparisons and interdisciplinary modelling activities. Specific recommendations included updating the 2014 WHO Quantitative Risk Assessment to cover a wider range of causal pathways and health endpoints, using interdisciplinary methods that facilitate model intercomparisons. Additional recommendations included supporting modelling of a broader set of climate–health outcomes, developing models to support early warning systems and investments in their implementation, evaluation, and maintenance, and improving health system capacity for modelling in low-resource settings.},
note = {Acknowledgments: Funding from Wellcome and thank Ms Marci Burden, University of Washington, for project management. The authors also acknowledge the valuable comments from the anonymous reviewers coordinated by the journal Environmental Health Perspectives and acknowledge the support of Lancet Planetary Health in the publication of this Personal View after Environmental Health Perspectives ceased publication.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
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Climate and health modelling is necessary for improving understanding of the current and future distribution and timing of climate-related health risks. However, underinvestment in this area has limited the understanding required to inform policies that enable multisectoral interventions to safeguard health. We synthesised insights from a survey of 65 global climate and health modelling experts and 36 participants in a hybrid meeting to identify priority strategies for enhancing the validity, utility, and policy relevance of climate and health models. Foundational investments to support modelling included strengthening research capacity, establishing a network of multinational centres of excellence for transdisciplinary research and capacity building, improving data collection and sharing infrastructure, investing in scenario development and quantitative elaboration, assessing adaptation effectiveness, and committing to intermodel comparisons and interdisciplinary modelling activities. Specific recommendations included updating the 2014 WHO Quantitative Risk Assessment to cover a wider range of causal pathways and health endpoints, using interdisciplinary methods that facilitate model intercomparisons. Additional recommendations included supporting modelling of a broader set of climate–health outcomes, developing models to support early warning systems and investments in their implementation, evaluation, and maintenance, and improving health system capacity for modelling in low-resource settings.
Stephanides, Phedeas; Chilvers, Jason; Honeybun-Arnolda, Elliot; Hargreaves, Tom; Pallett, Helen; Groves, Chris; Pidgeon, Nicholas; Henwood, Karen; Gross, Robert
Beyond public acceptance: Towards systemic societal responsiveness of net zero infrastructures Journal Article
In: Energy Research and Social Science, vol. 127, 2025, ISSN: 2214-6296, (Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article. Funding information: The review presented in this article was funded by the UK Research Councils as part of the UKERC Phase 4 research programme (EPSRC grant reference EP/S029575/1).).
@article{fce668824cdc4a6980bcd6bbcd6ccbf2,
title = {Beyond public acceptance: Towards systemic societal responsiveness of net zero infrastructures},
author = {Phedeas Stephanides and Jason Chilvers and Elliot Honeybun-Arnolda and Tom Hargreaves and Helen Pallett and Chris Groves and Nicholas Pidgeon and Karen Henwood and Robert Gross},
doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2025.104251},
issn = {2214-6296},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-09-01},
journal = {Energy Research and Social Science},
volume = {127},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Whilst dominant science-policy framings focus on getting publics to accept widespread infrastructural changes deemed necessary for net zero, social science scholarship has argued for the need to move ‘beyond acceptance’. In this paper we advance on existing studies which tend to emphasise a largely sequential progression from acceptance to ‘beyond acceptance’ approaches. We suggest that this can be more accurately viewed as distinct co-existing and interacting perspectives on public responses to net zero infrastructures. We present a framework that identifies four perspectives on how publics relate to infrastructural change. This suggests that alongside perspectives focusing on public acceptance and societal acceptability, two alternative perspectives emphasise the need for societal responsiveness perspectives, one with reference to specific settings and one more systemically. Drawing on a review of academic literature and UK policy documents, we move beyond studies focusing on discrete technologies to analyse how these perspectives are evident across the energy system, with reference to three exemplifying case study areas: wind energy, greenhouse gas removal, and smart home technologies. Our analysis shows that public responses to net zero infrastructures are contingent on particular sociotechnical situations and are interrelated across wider systems. While societal responsiveness perspectives are emerging in contestation to the still dominant focus of gaining acceptance, we suggest that a more systemic perspective on societal responsiveness of net zero infrastructures is needed. We consider the research and policy-practice implications of this systemic societal responsiveness perspective in terms of public responses to, engagement with, and the governance of net zero transitions.},
note = {Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article. Funding information: The review presented in this article was funded by the UK Research Councils as part of the UKERC Phase 4 research programme (EPSRC grant reference EP/S029575/1).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Whilst dominant science-policy framings focus on getting publics to accept widespread infrastructural changes deemed necessary for net zero, social science scholarship has argued for the need to move ‘beyond acceptance’. In this paper we advance on existing studies which tend to emphasise a largely sequential progression from acceptance to ‘beyond acceptance’ approaches. We suggest that this can be more accurately viewed as distinct co-existing and interacting perspectives on public responses to net zero infrastructures. We present a framework that identifies four perspectives on how publics relate to infrastructural change. This suggests that alongside perspectives focusing on public acceptance and societal acceptability, two alternative perspectives emphasise the need for societal responsiveness perspectives, one with reference to specific settings and one more systemically. Drawing on a review of academic literature and UK policy documents, we move beyond studies focusing on discrete technologies to analyse how these perspectives are evident across the energy system, with reference to three exemplifying case study areas: wind energy, greenhouse gas removal, and smart home technologies. Our analysis shows that public responses to net zero infrastructures are contingent on particular sociotechnical situations and are interrelated across wider systems. While societal responsiveness perspectives are emerging in contestation to the still dominant focus of gaining acceptance, we suggest that a more systemic perspective on societal responsiveness of net zero infrastructures is needed. We consider the research and policy-practice implications of this systemic societal responsiveness perspective in terms of public responses to, engagement with, and the governance of net zero transitions.
Hope, Aimie; Naughton, Felix; Notley, Caitlin
Smoking cessation supported by a smartphone app: A qualitative process evaluation of the Quit Sense feasibility RCT Journal Article
In: British Journal of Health Psychology, vol. 30, no. 3, 2025, ISSN: 1359-107X, (DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: The data underlying this article will be shared upon reasonable request to the corresponding author. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research Programme (17/92/31). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.).
@article{38c966b14c364301bc90253d56d8520b,
title = {Smoking cessation supported by a smartphone app: A qualitative process evaluation of the Quit Sense feasibility RCT},
author = {Aimie Hope and Felix Naughton and Caitlin Notley},
doi = {10.1111/bjhp.70010},
issn = {1359-107X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-09-01},
journal = {British Journal of Health Psychology},
volume = {30},
number = {3},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Objectives: Quit Sense is a Just-in-Time Adaptive Intervention (JITAI) smartphone app that provides real-time automated and in-situ support to help people attempting to quit smoking manage cue-induced cravings. This process evaluation study explored views and experiences of feasibility trial participants and assessed: (1) intervention experiences, (2) how these might help explain causal path-ways towards behaviour change and (3) experiences of study participation. Design: Qualitative interviews nested within a two-arm feasibility randomized control trial. Methods: We purposefully sampled 20 participants (15intervention, 5 usual care) for semi-structured telephone interviews. Data were thematically analysed and was supplemented with a descriptive analysis of relevant experiences to hypothesize causal pathways to behaviour change. Results: Motivations for engaging in the trial and intervention included wanting greater accountability and to be part of something. Reasons for disengaging included success-fully quitting (app no longer needed), lapsing/relapsing and preferring other support types. Mechanisms which reportedly enabled successful quit attempts included the app's pre-quit preparation phase through insights into smoking cues, the delivery of lapse avoidance strategies and the supportive messages which helped to reinforce the goal of quitting. The trial was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic and provided examples of situations and contexts in which Quit Sense was used and felt to be (un)helpful for cessation. Conclusions: The Quit Sense app and trial were well received by participants. Participants reported that the preparation phase used for app training prior to their quit date was of particular value and not currently offered by other apps tried.},
note = {DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: The data underlying this article will be shared upon reasonable request to the corresponding author. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research Programme (17/92/31). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Objectives: Quit Sense is a Just-in-Time Adaptive Intervention (JITAI) smartphone app that provides real-time automated and in-situ support to help people attempting to quit smoking manage cue-induced cravings. This process evaluation study explored views and experiences of feasibility trial participants and assessed: (1) intervention experiences, (2) how these might help explain causal path-ways towards behaviour change and (3) experiences of study participation. Design: Qualitative interviews nested within a two-arm feasibility randomized control trial. Methods: We purposefully sampled 20 participants (15intervention, 5 usual care) for semi-structured telephone interviews. Data were thematically analysed and was supplemented with a descriptive analysis of relevant experiences to hypothesize causal pathways to behaviour change. Results: Motivations for engaging in the trial and intervention included wanting greater accountability and to be part of something. Reasons for disengaging included success-fully quitting (app no longer needed), lapsing/relapsing and preferring other support types. Mechanisms which reportedly enabled successful quit attempts included the app's pre-quit preparation phase through insights into smoking cues, the delivery of lapse avoidance strategies and the supportive messages which helped to reinforce the goal of quitting. The trial was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic and provided examples of situations and contexts in which Quit Sense was used and felt to be (un)helpful for cessation. Conclusions: The Quit Sense app and trial were well received by participants. Participants reported that the preparation phase used for app training prior to their quit date was of particular value and not currently offered by other apps tried.
Naughton, Felix; Barnes, Sylvia; Gardener, Carole; Notley, Caitlin; Begh, Rachna; Lindson, Nicola; Waqar, Salman; Siegele-Brown, Chloë; Hope, Aimie
Designing religiously informed and culturally acceptable tobacco cessation interventions for UK-based Muslims Journal Article
In: Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 2025, ISSN: 1462-2203, (Data Availability: As this was a public involvement project, data are not available. Funding: This project was funded by the Norfolk and Waveney Integrated Care Board, UK.).
@article{6c42388165864762a3c181584f4a108d,
title = {Designing religiously informed and culturally acceptable tobacco cessation interventions for UK-based Muslims},
author = {Felix Naughton and Sylvia Barnes and Carole Gardener and Caitlin Notley and Rachna Begh and Nicola Lindson and Salman Waqar and Chloë Siegele-Brown and Aimie Hope},
doi = {10.1093/ntr/ntaf178},
issn = {1462-2203},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-08-28},
journal = {Nicotine and Tobacco Research},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
abstract = {Introduction: Globally, tobacco use rates in Muslim communities, particularly among men, are significantly higher than in non-Muslim communities. In the United Kingdom, there are also low rates of help-seeking among British Muslims who use tobacco. Ramadan could be a “window of opportunity” to support tobacco use behavior change but we lack the voice of British Muslim communities on culturally tailored cessation support. We undertook a public and patient involvement and engagement (PPIE) project to gain views from representatives of these communities. Aims and Methods: Discussions with 15 PPIE representatives from, or who worked with, a variety of British Muslim communities identified through gatekeepers, social media, and snowballing approaches. Key points and views from PPIE discussions were summarized into broad themes. Results: Opportunities and challenges with culturally adapting tobacco cessation support to Ramadan were raised. “Light touch” positive religious messaging connected to tobacco cessation was recommended, and overemphasizing religion in messaging content to be avoided. Quitting during Ramadan was felt challenging due to fasting, precluding the use of nicotine replacement products or medication, and reinforcing tobacco use as part of fast-breaking routines. Instead, PPIE representatives suggested quitting in advance of Ramadan or promoting cessation afterward by capitalizing on tobacco reduction achieved during Ramadan. There was support for digital cessation approaches, but it was felt many in their communities would prefer traditional approaches, including interpersonal support and messaging through influential community members. Conclusions: “Light touch” culturally tailored tobacco cessation support before or after Ramadan was felt more promising than supporting cessation initiation during Ramadan. Implications: Members of British Muslim communities identified challenges with using Ramadan as a “window of opportunity” for tobacco behavior change and favored quitting ahead of time for Ramadan or capitalizing on tobacco behavior change achieved during Ramadan to promote a quit attempt afterward. Taking a “light touch” approach with religiously tailored messaging could help engage Muslim people who smoke in cessation support. However, avoiding any strong or negatively framed tobacco-related messages linked to religious phrases or imagery is important. This work reinforces the importance of engaging with communities when considering culturally adapting interventions to prevent misdirected adaptions.},
note = {Data Availability: As this was a public involvement project, data are not available. Funding: This project was funded by the Norfolk and Waveney Integrated Care Board, UK.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Introduction: Globally, tobacco use rates in Muslim communities, particularly among men, are significantly higher than in non-Muslim communities. In the United Kingdom, there are also low rates of help-seeking among British Muslims who use tobacco. Ramadan could be a “window of opportunity” to support tobacco use behavior change but we lack the voice of British Muslim communities on culturally tailored cessation support. We undertook a public and patient involvement and engagement (PPIE) project to gain views from representatives of these communities. Aims and Methods: Discussions with 15 PPIE representatives from, or who worked with, a variety of British Muslim communities identified through gatekeepers, social media, and snowballing approaches. Key points and views from PPIE discussions were summarized into broad themes. Results: Opportunities and challenges with culturally adapting tobacco cessation support to Ramadan were raised. “Light touch” positive religious messaging connected to tobacco cessation was recommended, and overemphasizing religion in messaging content to be avoided. Quitting during Ramadan was felt challenging due to fasting, precluding the use of nicotine replacement products or medication, and reinforcing tobacco use as part of fast-breaking routines. Instead, PPIE representatives suggested quitting in advance of Ramadan or promoting cessation afterward by capitalizing on tobacco reduction achieved during Ramadan. There was support for digital cessation approaches, but it was felt many in their communities would prefer traditional approaches, including interpersonal support and messaging through influential community members. Conclusions: “Light touch” culturally tailored tobacco cessation support before or after Ramadan was felt more promising than supporting cessation initiation during Ramadan. Implications: Members of British Muslim communities identified challenges with using Ramadan as a “window of opportunity” for tobacco behavior change and favored quitting ahead of time for Ramadan or capitalizing on tobacco behavior change achieved during Ramadan to promote a quit attempt afterward. Taking a “light touch” approach with religiously tailored messaging could help engage Muslim people who smoke in cessation support. However, avoiding any strong or negatively framed tobacco-related messages linked to religious phrases or imagery is important. This work reinforces the importance of engaging with communities when considering culturally adapting interventions to prevent misdirected adaptions.
Kenny, John; Geese, Lucas; Jordan, Andrew; Lorenzoni, Irene
A framework for classifying climate change questions used in public opinion surveys Journal Article
In: Environmental Politics, vol. 34, no. 6, pp. 1114–1140, 2025, ISSN: 0964-4016, (Funding information: The work was supported by the European Research Council (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601) and the UK Economic and Social Research Council (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) ES/S012257/1).).
@article{81632e3cc49046548f8c7cd9bee8b337,
title = {A framework for classifying climate change questions used in public opinion surveys},
author = {John Kenny and Lucas Geese and Andrew Jordan and Irene Lorenzoni},
doi = {10.1080/09644016.2024.2429264},
issn = {0964-4016},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-08-22},
journal = {Environmental Politics},
volume = {34},
number = {6},
pages = {1114–1140},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Climate change is a significant site of political contestation, with public opinion frequently invoked to support claims for more (or less) action. Yet, ‘climate change public opinion’ is an umbrella term encompassing many different components. Empirical research has recently burgeoned, but an up-to-date and globally comprehensive guide to navigating the interconnected concepts currently measured is still lacking. In this review, we develop an original classification framework based on questions fielded in over 315 surveys across different parts of the world. We reflect on what aspects the questions elicit, relate them to patterns in the existing empirical literature, and identify and reflect on important implications for future research. Given the diversity of climate-relevant concepts that can be measured via survey questions, we recommend that researchers are clear about which component(s) of climate change public opinion they are eliciting, how they analyze these, and situate their research claims and policy recommendations accordingly.},
note = {Funding information: The work was supported by the European Research Council (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601) and the UK Economic and Social Research Council (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) ES/S012257/1).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Climate change is a significant site of political contestation, with public opinion frequently invoked to support claims for more (or less) action. Yet, ‘climate change public opinion’ is an umbrella term encompassing many different components. Empirical research has recently burgeoned, but an up-to-date and globally comprehensive guide to navigating the interconnected concepts currently measured is still lacking. In this review, we develop an original classification framework based on questions fielded in over 315 surveys across different parts of the world. We reflect on what aspects the questions elicit, relate them to patterns in the existing empirical literature, and identify and reflect on important implications for future research. Given the diversity of climate-relevant concepts that can be measured via survey questions, we recommend that researchers are clear about which component(s) of climate change public opinion they are eliciting, how they analyze these, and situate their research claims and policy recommendations accordingly.
Seydi, Seyd Teymoor; Abatzoglou, John T.; Jones, Matthew W.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Filippelli, Gabriel; Hurteau, Matthew D.; Aghakouchak, Amir; Luce, Charles H.; Miao, Chiyuan; Sadegh, Mojtaba
Increasing global human exposure to wildland fires despite declining burned area Journal Article
In: Science, vol. 389, no. 6762, pp. 826–829, 2025, ISSN: 0036-8075, (Funding: This work was supported by the Joint Fire Science Program (grant L21AC10247 to M.S. and J.T.A.), the National Science Foundation (grants OAI-2019762 to J.T.A. and 2429021 to M.S.), Boise State University Healthy Idaho Initiative (M.S.), and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC grant NE/V01417X/1 to M.W.J.). Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US government.).
@article{080c05639a474e7b80de710326ece3cc,
title = {Increasing global human exposure to wildland fires despite declining burned area},
author = {Seyd Teymoor Seydi and John T. Abatzoglou and Matthew W. Jones and Crystal A. Kolden and Gabriel Filippelli and Matthew D. Hurteau and Amir Aghakouchak and Charles H. Luce and Chiyuan Miao and Mojtaba Sadegh},
doi = {10.1126/science.adu6408},
issn = {0036-8075},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-08-21},
journal = {Science},
volume = {389},
number = {6762},
pages = {826–829},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
abstract = {Although half of Earth’s population resides in the wildland-urban interface, human exposure to wildland fires remains unquantified. We show that the population directly exposed to wildland fires increased 40% globally from 2002 to 2021 despite a 26% decline in burned area. Increased exposure was mainly driven by enhanced colocation of wildland fires and human settlements, doubling the exposure per unit burned area. We show that population dynamics accounted for 25% of the 440 million human exposures to wildland fires. Although wildfire disasters in North America, Europe, and Oceania have garnered the most attention, 85% of global exposures occurred in Africa. The top 0.01% of fires by intensity accounted for 0.6 and 5% of global exposures and burned area, respectively, warranting enhanced efforts to increase fire resilience in disaster-prone regions.},
note = {Funding: This work was supported by the Joint Fire Science Program (grant L21AC10247 to M.S. and J.T.A.), the National Science Foundation (grants OAI-2019762 to J.T.A. and 2429021 to M.S.), Boise State University Healthy Idaho Initiative (M.S.), and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC grant NE/V01417X/1 to M.W.J.). Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US government.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Although half of Earth’s population resides in the wildland-urban interface, human exposure to wildland fires remains unquantified. We show that the population directly exposed to wildland fires increased 40% globally from 2002 to 2021 despite a 26% decline in burned area. Increased exposure was mainly driven by enhanced colocation of wildland fires and human settlements, doubling the exposure per unit burned area. We show that population dynamics accounted for 25% of the 440 million human exposures to wildland fires. Although wildfire disasters in North America, Europe, and Oceania have garnered the most attention, 85% of global exposures occurred in Africa. The top 0.01% of fires by intensity accounted for 0.6 and 5% of global exposures and burned area, respectively, warranting enhanced efforts to increase fire resilience in disaster-prone regions.
Peaple, Mark; Skinner, Daniel T.; Inglis, Gordon N.; Joshi, Manoj; Langdon, Peter; Matthews, Adrian J.; Osborn, Timothy J.; Sear, David
Ocean variability drives a millennial-scale shift in South Pacific hydroclimate Journal Article
In: Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 6, 2025, (Data availability: Proxy data generated as part of this study are available via the Open Science Framework. Reanalysis SST data are from the twentieth century Reanalysis product, version. CMIP6 model data used are available via the Earth System Grid Federation. Funding information: This study was supported by NERC grant NE/W005565/1. Field work was supported by National Geographic Expedition awards NGS-58688R-19 and NGS94645R-21 to D.S. In addition, G.N.I. was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship (DHFR1191178).).
@article{5a447e17d32e4fe2871d2b92c701d839,
title = {Ocean variability drives a millennial-scale shift in South Pacific hydroclimate},
author = {Mark Peaple and Daniel T. Skinner and Gordon N. Inglis and Manoj Joshi and Peter Langdon and Adrian J. Matthews and Timothy J. Osborn and David Sear},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-025-02676-5},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-08-19},
journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
volume = {6},
publisher = {Nature Research},
abstract = {The South Pacific Convergence Zone is a band of intense austral summer rainfall in the tropical Pacific. Changes in the South Pacific Convergence Zone are linked to Pacific sea surface temperatures on decadal timescales, but its behaviour and impacts over longer timescales remain poorly understood due to limited proxy records and model uncertainties. We combine new plant wax hydroclimate records with existing proxy evidence and climate model simulations to investigate South Pacific Convergence Zone changes over the past 1500 years. Our findings indicate that between 1000 and 200 years ago, the eastern South Pacific Convergence Zone became wetter while the western part became drier. Model simulations suggest that these centennial-scale changes were driven by Pacific sea surface temperature gradients. This eastward shift coincides with Polynesian colonisation, implying hydroclimate shifts both ‘pushed’ migration eastward and ‘pulled’ successful eastern settlement.},
note = {Data availability: Proxy data generated as part of this study are available via the Open Science Framework. Reanalysis SST data are from the twentieth century Reanalysis product, version. CMIP6 model data used are available via the Earth System Grid Federation. Funding information: This study was supported by NERC grant NE/W005565/1. Field work was supported by National Geographic Expedition awards NGS-58688R-19 and NGS94645R-21 to D.S. In addition, G.N.I. was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship (DHFR1191178).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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}
The South Pacific Convergence Zone is a band of intense austral summer rainfall in the tropical Pacific. Changes in the South Pacific Convergence Zone are linked to Pacific sea surface temperatures on decadal timescales, but its behaviour and impacts over longer timescales remain poorly understood due to limited proxy records and model uncertainties. We combine new plant wax hydroclimate records with existing proxy evidence and climate model simulations to investigate South Pacific Convergence Zone changes over the past 1500 years. Our findings indicate that between 1000 and 200 years ago, the eastern South Pacific Convergence Zone became wetter while the western part became drier. Model simulations suggest that these centennial-scale changes were driven by Pacific sea surface temperature gradients. This eastward shift coincides with Polynesian colonisation, implying hydroclimate shifts both ‘pushed’ migration eastward and ‘pulled’ successful eastern settlement.
Pennington, Lois; Welfle, Andrew; Parkes, Ben; Larkin, Alice
Beyond the runway – Quantifying the climate impact of international catering waste Journal Article
In: Waste Management, vol. 203, 2025, ISSN: 0956-053X.
@article{44bdfe45099749eab2f17f7304aed214,
title = {Beyond the runway – Quantifying the climate impact of international catering waste},
author = {Lois Pennington and Andrew Welfle and Ben Parkes and Alice Larkin},
issn = {0956-053X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-08-12},
journal = {Waste Management},
volume = {203},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {International flights generate substantial volumes of waste that pose a unique environmental challenge, as strict biosecurity regulations require it to be disposed of through destructive methods across the world. However, the impact on the world’s climate of managing this waste remains unquantified and largely disregarded in aviation mitigation discussions. This study presents the first analysis of the contribution of cabin waste management to climate change, developing a novel methodology that combines passenger movement data with waste generation factors to quantify volumes, composition, and greenhouse gas emissions of national cabin waste. Applied to the United Kingdom as a case study, our analysis estimates that that approximately 89,000 tonnes of cabin waste entered the UK in 2022. This generated between 10,400 and 40,500 tonnes of CO2 equivalent due to the mandated disposal in landfill or incineration. This climate impact is driven by regulatory requirements that prevent more sustainable waste treatment methods, and by slow industry innovations. Our model demonstrates that allowing cabin waste to be treated like domestic waste could generate climate benefits of 33,900 tonnes CO2 equivalent, through material and energy recovery. With aviation movements projected to grow through to 2050, we identify specific actions that could enable more sustainable cabin waste treatment while maintaining high levels of biosecurity. This research provides a replicable framework for other nations to quantify their cabin waste climate impacts, and evidence-based pathways for urgent regulation and operational reform.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
International flights generate substantial volumes of waste that pose a unique environmental challenge, as strict biosecurity regulations require it to be disposed of through destructive methods across the world. However, the impact on the world’s climate of managing this waste remains unquantified and largely disregarded in aviation mitigation discussions. This study presents the first analysis of the contribution of cabin waste management to climate change, developing a novel methodology that combines passenger movement data with waste generation factors to quantify volumes, composition, and greenhouse gas emissions of national cabin waste. Applied to the United Kingdom as a case study, our analysis estimates that that approximately 89,000 tonnes of cabin waste entered the UK in 2022. This generated between 10,400 and 40,500 tonnes of CO2 equivalent due to the mandated disposal in landfill or incineration. This climate impact is driven by regulatory requirements that prevent more sustainable waste treatment methods, and by slow industry innovations. Our model demonstrates that allowing cabin waste to be treated like domestic waste could generate climate benefits of 33,900 tonnes CO2 equivalent, through material and energy recovery. With aviation movements projected to grow through to 2050, we identify specific actions that could enable more sustainable cabin waste treatment while maintaining high levels of biosecurity. This research provides a replicable framework for other nations to quantify their cabin waste climate impacts, and evidence-based pathways for urgent regulation and operational reform.
