Tyndall Centre Publications

@article{f45a17f7065f47bfb398bb42953a6654,

title = {The global hydrogen budget},

author = {Zutao Ouyang and Robert B. Jackson and Marielle Saunois and Josep G. Canadell and Yuanhong Zhao and Catherine Morfopoulos and Paul B. Krummel and Prabir K. Patra and Glen P. Peters and Fraser Dennison and Thomas Gasser and Alexander T. Archibald and Vivek Arora and Gabriel Baudoin and Naveen Chandra and Philippe Ciais and Stephen J. Davis and Sarah Feron and Fangzhou Guo and Didier Hauglustaine and Christopher D. Jones and Matthew Jones and Etsushi Kato and Daniel Kennedy and Jürgen Knauer and Sebastian Lienert and Danica Lombardozzi and Joe R. Melton and Julia E. M. S. Nabel and Michael O'Sullivan and Gabrielle Pétron and Benjamin Poulter and Joeri Rogelj and David Sandoval Calle and Pete Smith and Parvadha Suntharalingam and Hanqin Tian and Chenghao Wang and Andy Wiltshire},

doi = {10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1},

issn = {0028-0836},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-12-17},

journal = {Nature},

volume = {648},

number = {8094},

pages = {616–624},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2,3,4,5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr−1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr−1, respectively, for 2010–2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01–0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production.},

note = {Data availability Anthropogenic emission data: CEDS data are available from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/input4MIPs/, EDCAR v.8.1 is available from https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ap81/, ECLIPSE v.6b is available from https://iiasa.ac.at/models-tools-data/ global-emission-fields-of-air-pollutants-and-ghgs/. Fire burning and emission data: GFED is available from https://www.globalfiredata. org/, FINN is available from https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/d312009/, GFAS is available from ECMWF at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/ dataset/global-fire-assimilation-system, and QFED is available from https://ftp.as.harvard.edu/gcgrid/data/ExtData/HEMCO/QFED/v2018· 07/. CMIP6 fire data is obtained from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/ input4MIPs/. Biogenic VOC emission data: MEGANv3.2 VOC is obtained from https://www.scidb.cn/en/detail?dataSetId=flcdb0cfbd70410d 88f491a75844912b, and CAMS-GLOB-BIOvl.2, CAMS-GLOB-BIOv3.0, CAMS-GLOB-BlOv3.1, and MEGAN-MACC are obtained from https:// eccad.aeris-data.fr/. OH fields and CH, fields: INVAST OH Fields can be requested from Didier Hauglustaine, other seven CMIP6 OH fields are available from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/input4MIPs/, The three CH4 fields can be requested from Marielle Saunois and Prabir K. Patra. Soil attributes: GLDAS data are available from https://ldas.gsfc. nasa.gov/gldas, and TRENDY model data are obtained from individual modelers and also partially available at https://mdosullivan.github.io/ GCB/. Different emission factors are summarized in Supplementary Information, and the gridded Η2 sinks and sources data produced in this study is available at Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/records/17162658). Figure 2 is created using Adobe Illustrator. Source data are provided with this paper.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{8d1c34a4c6604e43b93907e271e5d3e9,

title = {Decreasing importance of carbon-climate feedbacks in the Southern Ocean in a warming climate},

author = {Tereza Jarníková and Corinne Le Quéré and Steven Rumbold and Colin Jones},

doi = {10.1126/sciadv.adr3589},

issn = {2375-2548},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-05-16},

journal = {Science Advances},

volume = {11},

number = {20},

publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},

abstract = {The Southern Ocean is an important CO2 sink, mitigating climate change, but its future evolution is uncertain due to the confounding effects of stratospheric ozone recovery and climate change on ocean circulation. Using an Earth System Model, we quantify the relative influence of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gas emissions on this sink from 1950 to 2100. Ozone effects dominated changes in ocean circulation during 1950–2000, but not this century, implying that past trends cannot serve as proxies for future changes. Despite substantial future circulation changes induced by climate change, their effect on the CO2 sink decreases over the 21st century because of compensating factors. Thus, the Southern Ocean is unlikely to be a major future source of amplifying carbon-climate feedbacks this century.},

note = {Data and materials availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. Code and data are also provided on DRYAD: DOI: 10.5061/dryad.jsxksn0mc. For convenience, analysis code is also at https://github.com/tjarnikova/SO-wind-feedback. Funding information: This work was supported by UK Natural Environment Research Council CELOS project (NERC, grant NE/ T01086X/1) (C.L.Q., C.J., T.J., and S.R.), UK Natural Environment Research Council Marine Frontiers project (NERC, grant NE/V011103/1) (C.L.Q. and T.J.), and Royal Society (grant RP R119106) (C.L.Q.).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{b38df326d7dc4ecb89c964341f03083e,

title = {Global nitrous oxide budget (1980-2020)},

author = {Hanqin Tian and Naiqing Pan and Rona L. Thompson and Josep G. Canadell and Parvadha Suntharalingam and Pierre Regnier and Eric A. Davidson and Michael Prather and Philippe Ciais and Marilena Muntean and Shufen Pan and Wilfried Winiwarter and Sönke Zaehle and Feng Zhou and Robert B. Jackson and Hermann W. Bange and Sarah Berthet and Zihao Bian and Daniele Bianchi and Alexander F. Bouwman and Erik T. Buitenhuis and Geoffrey Dutton and Minpeng Hu and Akihiko Ito and Atul K. Jain and Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes and Fortunat Joos and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht and Paul B. Krummel and Xin Lan and Angela Landolfi and Ronny Lauerwald and Ya Li and Chaoqun Lu and Taylor Maavara and Manfredi Manizza and Dylan B. Millet and Jens Mühle and Prabir K. Patra and Glen P. Peters and Xiaoyu Qin and Peter Raymond and Laure Resplandy and Judith A. Rosentreter and Hao Shi and Qing Sun and Daniele Tonina and Francesco N. Tubiello and Guido R. Werf and Nicolas Vuichard and Junjie Wang and Kelley C. Wells and Luke M. Western and Chris Wilson and Jia Yang and Yuanzhi Yao and Yongfa You and Qing Zhu},

doi = {10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024},

issn = {1866-3508},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-06-11},

journal = {Earth System Science Data},

volume = {16},

number = {6},

pages = {2543–2604},

publisher = {Copernicus Publications},

abstract = {Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lived potent greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance that has been accumulating in the atmosphere since the preindustrial period. The mole fraction of atmospheric N2O has increased by nearly 25 % from 270 ppb (parts per billion) in 1750 to 336 ppb in 2022, with the fastest annual growth rate since 1980 of more than 1.3 ppb yr-1 in both 2020 and 2021. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6), the relative contribution of N2O to the total enhanced effective radiative forcing of greenhouse gases was 6.4 % for 1750-2022. As a core component of our global greenhouse gas assessments coordinated by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), our global N2O budget incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks and accounts for the interactions between nitrogen additions and the biogeochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottomup (BU: inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, and process-based land and ocean modeling) and top-down (TD: atmospheric measurement-based inversion) approaches. We provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks in 21 natural and anthropogenic categories in 18 regions between 1980 and 2020. We estimate that total annual anthropogenic N2O emissions have increased 40 % (or 1.9 Tg N yr-1) in the past 4 decades (1980-2020). Direct agricultural emissions in 2020 (3.9 Tg N yr-1, best estimate) represent the large majority of anthropogenic emissions, followed by other direct anthropogenic sources, including fossil fuel and industry, waste and wastewater, and biomass burning (2.1 Tg N yr-1), and indirect anthropogenic sources (1.3 Tg N yr-1) . For the year 2020, our best estimate of total BU emissions for natural and anthropogenic sources was 18.5 (lower-upper bounds: 10.6-27.0) Tg N yr-1, close to our TD estimate of 17.0 (16.6-17.4) Tg N yr-1. For the 2010-2019 period, the annual BU decadal-average emissions for both natural and anthropogenic sources were 18.2 (10.6-25.9) Tg N yr-1 and TD emissions were 17.4 (15.8-19.20) Tg N yr-1. The once top emitter Europe has reduced its emissions by 31 % since the 1980s, while those of emerging economies have grown, making China the top emitter since the 2010s. The observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded projected levels under all scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions. To evaluate mitigation efforts and contribute to the Global Stocktake of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we propose the establishment of a global network for monitoring and modeling N2O from the surface through to the stratosphere. The data presented in this work can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/RQ8P-2Z4R (Tian et al., 2023).},

note = {Data availability: The paper includes extensive notes on the dataset and how it can be accessed. Funding information: Full details of the funders can be found in Appendix Table A4 of the paper.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ba4cfef4a8704f059a426bc448092eec,

title = {Technical and environmental assessment of end-of-life scenarios for plastic packaging with electronic tags},

author = {Ashiq Ahamed and Peng Huang and Joshua Young and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Richard Price and Michael P. Shaver},

doi = {10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107341},

issn = {0921-3449},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-02-01},

journal = {Resources, Conservation and Recycling},

volume = {201},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The end-of-life management of plastics is challenging, especially when inefficient sorting can limit the quality of recycling streams. Radio frequency identification device (RFID) tags can add value to packaging by assisting with post-collection sorting and end-of-life management. We conducted, for the first time, a technical and environmental (LCA) evaluation of plastic packaging with RFID for different end-of-life scenarios, including mechanical recycling (extrusion), chemical recycling (depolymerisation), and energy-from-waste. The recycling process and plastic quality were unaffected by the RFID, although tag particulates can be transferred to the recyclate. LCA results indicated that mechanical recycling of the plastic with either energy-from-waste treatment (Scenario 1) or chemical recycling (Scenario 3) of the RFID is superior to chemical recycling of the plastic and RFID (Scenario 2) among all the impact categories except stratospheric ozone depletion potential. For example, the global warming potential of Scenario 2 (223.63 gCO2e) was determined to be more than twice than that of the Scenarios 1 and 3 (111.04 and 111.78 gCO2e, respectively). However, as per sensitivity analysis, with further advancements particularly in catalyst development and energy mix, chemical recycling can be a potential solution as it ensures the highest recyclate quality and facilitates the longest retention of the material value. The growing application of RFID tags in consumer goods makes the technical and environmental investigation of its effects on the end-of-life management paramount.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2711f7bc95ed400baad89f9d8a060a96,

title = {Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations},

author = {Peer Nowack and Paulo Ceppi and Sean Davis and Gabriel Chiodo and Will Ball and Mohamadou Diallo and Birgit Hassler and Yue Jia and James Keeble and Manoj Joshi},

doi = {10.1038/s41561-023-01183-6},

issn = {1752-0894},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-07-01},

journal = {Nature Geoscience},

volume = {16},

number = {7},

pages = {577–583},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its tropical ascent into the stratosphere. Here we derive an observational constraint on this longstanding uncertainty. We use a statistical learning approach to infer historical co-variations between the atmospheric temperature structure and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations. For climate models, we demonstrate that these historically constrained relationships are highly predictive of the water vapour response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. We obtain an observationally constrained range for stratospheric water vapour changes per degree of global warming of 0.31 +/- 0.39~ppmv/K. Across 61 climate models, we find that a large fraction of future model projections are inconsistent with observational evidence. In particular, frequently projected strong increases (>1 ppmv/K) are highly unlikely. Our constraint represents a 50% decrease in the 95th percentile of the climate model uncertainty distribution, which has implications for surface warming, ozone recovery, and the tropospheric circulation response under climate change.},

note = {This paper is dedicated to the authors' coauthor, colleague and friend Will Ball, who passed away in April 2022. He brought this group together, ultimately resulting in this publication. Funding Information: P.N. and P.C. were supported through Imperial College Research Fellowships and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant number NE/V012045/1. P.C. was additionally supported by NERC grant NE/T006250/1. G.C. was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation through the Ambizione grant number PZ00P2_180043. M.A.D. was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), individual research grant number DI2618/1-1. B.H. was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) Synergy grant ‘Understanding and modelling the Earth System with Machine Learning (USMILE)’ under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 855187) and by the Helmholtz Society project ‘Advanced Earth System Model Evaluation for CMIP’ (EVal4CMIP). J.K. was supported by the UK Met Office CSSP-China programme through the POzSUM project and by the NERC-funded InHALE project (NE/X003574/1). P.N. used JASMIN, the UK collaborative data analysis facility, and the High Performance Computing Cluster supported by the Research and Specialist Computing Support service at the University of East Anglia. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), which through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. Acknowledgements: The authors thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access and the funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{336a5131a8ba43a789278dbd38afc543,

title = {Life cycle sustainability assessment and circularity of geothermal power plants},

author = {Jingyi Li and Raphael Ricardo Zepon Tarpani and Laurence Stamford and Alejandro Gallego-Schmid},

doi = {10.1016/j.spc.2022.10.027},

issn = {2352-5509},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Sustainable Production and Consumption},

volume = {35},

pages = {141–156},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Geothermal power generation is expected to increase fivefold worldwide by 2040 compared to 2018. The upcoming growth of geothermal power plants (GPPs) requires assessments of its role in tackling climate change and other impacts within complex environmental, economic and social systems. This study presents the first literature review of GPPs, including comparisons among different GPP technologies, based on life cycle sustainability and circular economy perspectives. A total of 76 core literature studies on geothermal-related topics are reviewed, including technology choices, and critically discussed in terms of their environmental, economic, social and circular economy aspects. Firstly, seven life cycle environmental impact indicators (global warming, acidification, eutrophication, human toxicity, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidation, and cumulative energy demand) are compared both within GPP technologies and to other conventional electricity generation technologies (such as coal and hydro). Secondly, economic sustainability is considered via life cycle costing, and the results show that geothermal could be economically competitive when compared to solar photovoltaic (PV), hydro, and even wind energy sources. Thirdly, social aspects are discussed considering 15 articles that evaluated concerns such as public acceptance, technology safety and local employment rate, although none rigorously considered a life cycle approach. Lastly, a total of 12 articles were found linking the circular economy with GPPs and elaborating on some of the ‘9Rs’ framework. To improve the effectiveness of future research, studies should focus on fulfilling major data gaps in literature such as the lack of detailed documentation for specific materials and background process choices in life cycle assessment databases. The development of GPPs can be an important alternative in efforts to decrease climate change impacts and pursue cleaner energy sources in countries where geothermal energy is more easily available.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ad70f27dc9da4f59b396b0c0ae7b1b0f,

title = {Environmental factors associated with general practitioner consultations for allergic rhinitis in London, England: a retrospective time series analysis},

author = {Dan Todkill and Felipe Jesus Colon Gonzalez and Roger Morbey and Andre Charlett and Shakoor Hajat and Sari Kovats and Nicholas J. Osborne and Rachel McInnes and Sotiris Vardoulakis and Karen Exley and Obaghe Edeghere and Gillian Smith and Alex J. Elliot},

doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2019-036724},

issn = {2044-6055},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-12-04},

journal = {BMJ Open},

volume = {10},

number = {12},

publisher = {BMJ Publishing Group},

abstract = {Objectives: To identify key predictors of general practitioner (GP) consultations for allergic rhinitis (AR) using meteorological and environmental data.Design: A retrospective, time series analysis of GP consultations for AR.Setting: A large GP surveillance network of GP practices in the London area.Participants: The study population was all persons who presented to general practices in London that report to the Public Health England GP in-hours syndromic surveillance system during the study period (3 April 2012 to 11 August 2014).Primary measure: Consultations for AR (numbers of consultations).Results: During the study period there were 186 401 GP consultations for AR. High grass and nettle pollen counts (combined) were associated with the highest increases in consultations (for the category 216-270 grains/m3, relative risk (RR) 3.33, 95% CI 2.69 to 4.12) followed by high tree (oak, birch and plane combined) pollen counts (for the category 260–325 grains/m3, RR 1.69, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.15) and average daily temperatures between 15°C and 20°C (RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.81). Higher levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) appeared to be associated with increased consultations (for the category 70–85 µg/m3, RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.71), but a significant effect was not found with ozone. Higher daily rainfall was associated with fewer consultations (15–20 mm/day; RR 0.812, 95% CI 0.674 to 0.980). Conclusions: Changes in grass, nettle or tree pollen counts, temperatures between 15°C and 20°C, and (to a lesser extent) NO2 concentrations were found to be associated with increased consultations for AR. Rainfall has a negative effect. In the context of climate change and continued exposures to environmental air pollution, intelligent use of these data will aid targeting public health messages and plan healthcare demand.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{c4ed5c9c94a14acfb6f24fe3d6bb7cb5,

title = {A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks},

author = {Hanquin Tian and Rongting Xu and Josep G. Canadell and Rona L. Thompson and Wilfried Winiwarter and Parvadha Suntharalingam and Eric A. Davidson and Philippe Ciais and Robert B. Jackson and Greet Janssens-Maenhout and Michael J. Prather and Pierre Regnier and Naiqing Pan and Shufen Pan and Glen P. Peters and Hao Shi and Francesco N. Tubiello and Sönke Zaehle and Feng Zhou and Almut Arneth and Gianna Battaglia and Sarah Berthet and Laurent Bopp and Alexander F. Bouwman and Erik Buitenhuis and Jinfeng Chang and Martyn P. Chipperfield and Shree R. S. Dangal and Edward J. Dlugokencky and James W. Elkins and Bradley D. Eyre and Bojie Fu and Bradley Hall and Akihiko Ito and Fortunat Joos and Paul B. Krummel and Angela Landolfi and Goulven G. Laruelle and Ronny Lauerwald and Wei Li and Sebastian Lienert and Taylor Maavara and Michael MacLeod and Dylan B. Millet and Stefan Olin and Prabir K. Patra and Ronald G. Prinn and Peter A. Raymond and Daniel J. Ruiz and Guido R. Werf and Nicolas Vuichard and Junjie Wang and Ray F. Weiss and Kelley C. Wells and Chris Wilson and Jia Yang and Yuanzhi Yao},

doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2780-0},

issn = {1476-4687},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-10-08},

journal = {Nature},

volume = {586},

number = {7828},

pages = {248–256},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Nitrous oxide (N2O), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric N2O concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion1 and climate change2, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of N2O emissions, owing to their omission of natural sources and limitations in methodology for attributing anthropogenic sources. Here we present a global N2O inventory that incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and accounts for the interaction between nitrogen additions and the biochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, process-based land and ocean modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversion) approaches to provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks resulting from 21 natural and human sectors between 1980 and 2016. Global N2O emissions were 17.0 (minimum–maximum estimates: 12.2–23.5) teragrams of nitrogen per year (bottom-up) and 16.9 (15.9–17.7) teragrams of nitrogen per year (top-down) between 2007 and 2016. Global human-induced emissions, which are dominated by nitrogen additions to croplands, increased by 30% over the past four decades to 7.3 (4.2–11.4) teragrams of nitrogen per year. This increase was mainly responsible for the growth in the atmospheric burden. Our findings point to growing N2O emissions in emerging economies—particularly Brazil, China and India. Analysis of process-based model estimates reveals an emerging N2O–climate feedback resulting from interactions between nitrogen additions and climate change. The recent growth in N2O emissions exceeds some of the highest projected emission scenarios3,4, underscoring the urgency to mitigate N2O emissions.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{968f8b3e41f74ede99b79199b564286f,

title = {Mineral dust increases the habitability of terrestrial planets but confounds biomarker detection},

author = {Ian Boutle and Manoj Joshi and F. Hugo Lambert and Nathan Mayne and Duncan Lyster and James Manners and Robert Ridgway and Krisztian Kohary},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16543-8},

issn = {2041-1723},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-06-09},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {11},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Identification of habitable planets beyond our solar system is a key goal of current and future space missions. Yet habitability depends not only on the stellar irradiance, but equally on constituent parts of the planetary atmosphere. Here we show, for the first time, that radiatively active mineral dust will have a significant impact on the habitability of Earth-like exoplanets. On tidally-locked planets, dust cools the day-side and warms the night-side, significantly widening the habitable zone. Independent of orbital configuration, we suggest that airborne dust can postpone planetary water loss at the inner edge of the habitable zone, through a feedback involving decreasing ocean coverage and increased dust loading. The inclusion of dust significantly obscures key biomarker gases (e.g. ozone, methane) in simulated transmission spectra, implying an important influence on the interpretation of observations.We demonstrate that future observational and theoretical studies of terrestrial exoplanets must consider the effect of dust.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1053d701429f47a8b4c4824ad045f651b,

title = {Design and environmental sustainability assessment of small-scale off-grid energy systems for remote rural communities},

author = {Jhud Mikhail Aberilla and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Laurence Stamford and Adisa Azapagic},

doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114004},

issn = {0306-2619},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-15},

journal = {Applied Energy},

volume = {258},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Small-scale off-grid renewable energy systems are being increasingly used for rural electrification, commonly as stand-alone home systems or community micro-grids. With the variety of technologies and configurations available, it is not clear which options are sustainable for remote communities. This study investigates the life cycle environmental sustainability of both home and community installations, designed as part of this work, which utilise diesel, solar, and wind resources coupled with battery storage. A total of 21 system configurations (six home systems and 15 micro-grids) have been designed and optimised for a prototypical rural community in the Philippines, considering both stand-alone and hybrid systems. Life cycle assessment (LCA) considering 18 potential impact categories has been carried out to compare the environmental impacts associated with electricity production of each option. At the household level, hybrid solar photovoltaics (PV)-wind systems with storage have 17-40% lower impacts than the equivalent stand-alone installations per kWh generated. Batteries are a major environmental hotspot, causing up to 88% of the life cycle impacts of a home energy system. Among the community micro-grid options, the PV-wind-lead acid battery hybrid system has the lowest impacts in many categories, including climate change, ozone depletion, and acidification. Comparing equivalent architectures for single-household and community-scale installations, PV systems are environmentally more sustainable if installed individually in households, while larger turbines in community micro-grids are environmentally better for wind utilisation. The results suggest that a household-scale PV system integrated within a micro-grid with community-scale wind turbines and Li-ion batteries is environmentally the most sustainable configuration.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1053d701429f47a8b4c4824ad045f651,

title = {Design and environmental sustainability assessment of small-scale off-grid energy systems for remote rural communities},

author = {Jhud Mikhail Aberilla and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Laurence Stamford and Adisa Azapagic},

doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114004},

issn = {0306-2619},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-15},

journal = {Applied Energy},

volume = {258},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Small-scale off-grid renewable energy systems are being increasingly used for rural electrification, commonly as stand-alone home systems or community micro-grids. With the variety of technologies and configurations available, it is not clear which options are sustainable for remote communities. This study investigates the life cycle environmental sustainability of both home and community installations, designed as part of this work, which utilise diesel, solar, and wind resources coupled with battery storage. A total of 21 system configurations (six home systems and 15 micro-grids) have been designed and optimised for a prototypical rural community in the Philippines, considering both stand-alone and hybrid systems. Life cycle assessment (LCA) considering 18 potential impact categories has been carried out to compare the environmental impacts associated with electricity production of each option. At the household level, hybrid solar photovoltaics (PV)-wind systems with storage have 17-40% lower impacts than the equivalent stand-alone installations per kWh generated. Batteries are a major environmental hotspot, causing up to 88% of the life cycle impacts of a home energy system. Among the community micro-grid options, the PV-wind-lead acid battery hybrid system has the lowest impacts in many categories, including climate change, ozone depletion, and acidification. Comparing equivalent architectures for single-household and community-scale installations, PV systems are environmentally more sustainable if installed individually in households, while larger turbines in community micro-grids are environmentally better for wind utilisation. The results suggest that a household-scale PV system integrated within a micro-grid with community-scale wind turbines and Li-ion batteries is environmentally the most sustainable configuration.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{8b99e4a3c1d840a3b54a4b9b9c46d98a,

title = {Antarctic futures: An assessment of climate-driven changes in ecosystem structure, function, and service provisioning in the Southern Ocean},

author = {A. D. Rogers and B. A. V. Frinault and D. K. A. Barnes and N. L. Bindoff and R. Downie and H. W. Ducklow and A. S. Friedlaender and T. Hart and S. L. Hill and E. E. Hofmann and K. Linse and C. R. McMahon and E. J. Murphy and E. A. Pakhomov and G. Reygondeau and I. J. Staniland and D. A. Wolf-Gladrow and R. Wright},

doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-011028},

issn = {1941-0611},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-03},

urldate = {2020-01-03},

journal = {Annual Review of Marine Science},

volume = {12},

pages = {87–120},

publisher = {Annual Reviews Inc.},

abstract = {In this article, we analyze the impacts of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems. Observations demonstrate large-scale changes in the physical variables and circulation of the Southern Ocean driven by warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and a positive Southern Annular Mode. Alterations in the physical environment are driving change through all levels of Antarctic marine food webs, which differ regionally. The distributions of key species, such as Antarctic krill, are also changing. Differential responses among predators reflect differences in species ecology. The impacts of climate change on Antarctic biodiversity will likely vary for different communities and depend on species range. Coastal communities and those of sub-Antarctic islands, especially range-restricted endemic communities, will likely suffer the greatest negative consequences of climate change. Simultaneously, ecosystem services in the Southern Ocean will likely increase. Such decoupling of ecosystem services and endemic species will require consideration in the management of human activities such as fishing in Antarctic marine ecosystems.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{d9723b35957b4c30994c4c00dce87beeb,

title = {Environmental impacts of takeaway food containers},

author = {Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Joan Manuel Fernandez Mendoza and Adisa Azapagic},

doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.220},

issn = {0959-6526},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-02-20},

journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},

volume = {211},

pages = {417–427},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The consumption of takeaway food is increasing worldwide. Single-use containers used for takeaway food represent a significant source of waste and environmental impacts due to their low recyclability. Consequently, it is important to identify the best available alternatives and improvement opportunities to reduce the environmental impacts of fast-food containers. For these purposes, this study estimates and compares for the first time the life cycle impacts of three most widely-used types of takeaway container: aluminium, polypropylene and extruded polystyrene. These are also compared to reusable polypropylene containers. The findings suggest that single-use polypropylene containers are the worst option for seven out of 12 impacts considered, including global warming potential. They are followed by the aluminium alternative with five highest impacts, including depletion of ozone layer and human toxicity. Overall, extruded polystyrene containers have the lowest impacts due to the lower material and electricity requirements in their manufacture. They are also the best option when compared to reused takeaway polypropylene containers, unless the latter are reused 3-39 times. The number of uses needed for the reusable “Tupperware” polypropylene food savers is even higher, ranging from 16-208 times, with terrestrial ecotoxicity being always higher than for extruded polystyrene, regardless of the number of uses. However, extruded polystyrene containers are currently not recycled and cannot be considered a sustainable option. If they were recycled in accordance with the European Union 2025 policy on waste packaging, most of their impacts would be reduced by >18%, while also reducing littering and negative effects on marine organisms. Most of the impacts of the other two types of container would also be reduced (>20%) through increased recycling. Implementing the European Union 2025 policy on recycling of waste packaging would reduce all the impacts by 2%-60%, including a 33% reduction in global warming potential. Based on 2025 million takeaway containers used annually in the European Union, the latter would save 61,700 t CO2 eq./yr, equivalent to the emissions of 55,000 light-duty vehicles. The outcomes of this study will be of interest to packaging manufacturers, food outlets, policy makers and consumers.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{d9723b35957b4c30994c4c00dce87bee,

title = {Environmental impacts of takeaway food containers},

author = {Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Joan Manuel Fernandez Mendoza and Adisa Azapagic},

doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.220},

issn = {0959-6526},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-02-20},

journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},

volume = {211},

pages = {417–427},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The consumption of takeaway food is increasing worldwide. Single-use containers used for takeaway food represent a significant source of waste and environmental impacts due to their low recyclability. Consequently, it is important to identify the best available alternatives and improvement opportunities to reduce the environmental impacts of fast-food containers. For these purposes, this study estimates and compares for the first time the life cycle impacts of three most widely-used types of takeaway container: aluminium, polypropylene and extruded polystyrene. These are also compared to reusable polypropylene containers. The findings suggest that single-use polypropylene containers are the worst option for seven out of 12 impacts considered, including global warming potential. They are followed by the aluminium alternative with five highest impacts, including depletion of ozone layer and human toxicity. Overall, extruded polystyrene containers have the lowest impacts due to the lower material and electricity requirements in their manufacture. They are also the best option when compared to reused takeaway polypropylene containers, unless the latter are reused 3-39 times. The number of uses needed for the reusable “Tupperware” polypropylene food savers is even higher, ranging from 16-208 times, with terrestrial ecotoxicity being always higher than for extruded polystyrene, regardless of the number of uses. However, extruded polystyrene containers are currently not recycled and cannot be considered a sustainable option. If they were recycled in accordance with the European Union 2025 policy on waste packaging, most of their impacts would be reduced by >18%, while also reducing littering and negative effects on marine organisms. Most of the impacts of the other two types of container would also be reduced (>20%) through increased recycling. Implementing the European Union 2025 policy on recycling of waste packaging would reduce all the impacts by 2%-60%, including a 33% reduction in global warming potential. Based on 2025 million takeaway containers used annually in the European Union, the latter would save 61,700 t CO2 eq./yr, equivalent to the emissions of 55,000 light-duty vehicles. The outcomes of this study will be of interest to packaging manufacturers, food outlets, policy makers and consumers.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{719ed1bf4d4a433893a1e51a18f520d3b,

title = {Environmental assessment of solar photo-Fenton processes in combination with nanofiltration for the removal of micro-contaminants from real wastewaters},

author = {Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Raphael Tarpani and Sara Miralles-Cuevas and Alejandro Cabrera-Reina and Sixto Malato and Adisa Azapagic},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.361},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-02-10},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {650},

pages = {2210–2220},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Scarcity of water and concerns about the ecotoxicity of micro-contaminants are driving an interest in the use of advanced tertiary processes in wastewater treatment plants. However, the life cycle environmental implications of these treatments remain uncertain. To address this knowledge gap, this study evaluates through life cycle assessment the following four advanced process options for removal of micro-contaminants from real effluents: i) solar photo-Fenton (SPF) operating at acidic pH; ii) acidic SPF coupled with nanofiltration (NF); iii) SPF operating at neutral pH; and iv) neutral SPF coupled with NF. The results show that acidic SPF coupled with NF is the best option for all 15 impacts considered. For example, its climate change potential is almost three times lower than that of the neutral SPF process (311 vs 928 kg CO2 eq./1,000 m3 of treated effluent). The latter is the worst option for 12 impact categories. For the remaining three impacts (acidification, depletion of metals and particulate matter formation), acidic SPF without NF is least sustainable; it is also the second worst option for seven other impacts. Neutral SPF with NF is the second worst technology for climate change, ozone and fossil fuel depletion as well as marine eutrophication. In summary, both types of SPF perform better environmentally with than without NF and the acidic SPF treatment is more sustainable than the neutral version. Thus, the results of this work suggest that ongoing efforts on developing neutral SPF should instead be focused on further improvements of its acidic equivalent coupled with NF. These results can also be used to inform future development of policy related to the removal of micro-contaminants from wastewater.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{719ed1bf4d4a433893a1e51a18f520d3,

title = {Environmental assessment of solar photo-Fenton processes in combination with nanofiltration for the removal of micro-contaminants from real wastewaters},

author = {Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Raphael Tarpani and Sara Miralles-Cuevas and Alejandro Cabrera-Reina and Sixto Malato and Adisa Azapagic},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.361},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-02-10},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {650},

pages = {2210–2220},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Scarcity of water and concerns about the ecotoxicity of micro-contaminants are driving an interest in the use of advanced tertiary processes in wastewater treatment plants. However, the life cycle environmental implications of these treatments remain uncertain. To address this knowledge gap, this study evaluates through life cycle assessment the following four advanced process options for removal of micro-contaminants from real effluents: i) solar photo-Fenton (SPF) operating at acidic pH; ii) acidic SPF coupled with nanofiltration (NF); iii) SPF operating at neutral pH; and iv) neutral SPF coupled with NF. The results show that acidic SPF coupled with NF is the best option for all 15 impacts considered. For example, its climate change potential is almost three times lower than that of the neutral SPF process (311 vs 928 kg CO2 eq./1,000 m3 of treated effluent). The latter is the worst option for 12 impact categories. For the remaining three impacts (acidification, depletion of metals and particulate matter formation), acidic SPF without NF is least sustainable; it is also the second worst option for seven other impacts. Neutral SPF with NF is the second worst technology for climate change, ozone and fossil fuel depletion as well as marine eutrophication. In summary, both types of SPF perform better environmentally with than without NF and the acidic SPF treatment is more sustainable than the neutral version. Thus, the results of this work suggest that ongoing efforts on developing neutral SPF should instead be focused on further improvements of its acidic equivalent coupled with NF. These results can also be used to inform future development of policy related to the removal of micro-contaminants from wastewater.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{fc9a78f02f5043b8af1f3e0f60a0f8b6b,

title = {Life cycle environmental impacts of electricity from fossil fuels in Chile over a ten-year period},

author = {Carlos Gaete Morales and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Laurence Stamford and Adisa Azapagic},

doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.374},

issn = {0959-6526},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {This study uses life cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental impacts of electricity generated from fossil fuels in Chile over a ten–year period, from 2004-2014. The focus on fossil fuels is highly relevant for Chile because around 60% of electricity currently comes from natural gas, coal and oil. The impacts are first considered at the level of individual technologies, followed by the evaluation of the fossil-fuel electricity mix over the period. The study has been carried out using detailed primary data for 94 operating plants. Considering individual technologies, coal power has the worst performance for eight out of 11 impacts, with eutrophication, freshwater and marine ecotoxicity being between ten and 240 times greater than for gas. However, oil is worse than coal for photochemical oxidants (31%) and depletion of elements and ozone layer (four and eight times, respectively). Between 2004 and 2014, the annual environmental impacts doubled, while electricity generation rose only by 55%. The only exception to this is ozone depletion which fell by around 4%. The highest impacts occurred in 2014 mainly because of the high contribution of coal power. Therefore, the environmental performance of fossil-based electricity in Chile has worsened over time due to the growing share of coal power, coupled with the increasing electricity demand. Consequently, policy should aim to increase the efficiency of power plants, avoid the use of petroleum coke, improve emissions control and replace coal and oil with gas power as soon as possible.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{5c5bd3e0d51444c88db392c86909a4ecb,

title = {Assessing the Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Stationary Energy Storage for Electricity Grid Services},

author = {Christopher Jones and Paul J Gilbert and Laurence Stamford},

doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b06231},

issn = {0013-936X},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},

publisher = {American Chemical Society},

abstract = {This paper presents a life cycle assessment for three stationary energy storage systems (ESS); lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) and liquid air energy storage (LAES). The global warming potential (GWP) is assessed in relation to uncertainties in usage of the storage, use-phase energy input, cell replacement and round trip efficiency parameters. Relative climate change mitigation potential in comparison with equivalent diesel-electric and natural gas generation is discussed, as is the effect of recycling at end of life. With variations in input electricity source, recycling and efficiency, the life cycle global warming potential for LFP ranges from 185 kg CO2eq/MWh to 440 kg CO2eq/MWh; for VRFB from 121 kg CO2eq/MWh to 443 kg CO2eq/MWh; and for LAES from 48 kg CO-2eq/MWh to 203 kg CO2eq/MWh. In all cases there are climate change mitigation benefits compared to fossil fuel alternatives. Use of renewable energy for charging and operation, ease of component recycling/reuse and reduced parts replacement is shown to reduce GWP. The climate change mitigation potential of ESS for electricity grid operation is further enhanced by increasing use of the storage assets. Recycling of ESS is shown to reduce terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication and particulate matter impacts. Reduced ozone depletion potential for VRFB and LFP can be achieved by reducing nafion and PVDF components respectively.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{fc9a78f02f5043b8af1f3e0f60a0f8b6,

title = {Life cycle environmental impacts of electricity from fossil fuels in Chile over a ten-year period},

author = {Carlos Gaete Morales and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Laurence Stamford and Adisa Azapagic},

doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.374},

issn = {0959-6526},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {This study uses life cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental impacts of electricity generated from fossil fuels in Chile over a ten–year period, from 2004-2014. The focus on fossil fuels is highly relevant for Chile because around 60% of electricity currently comes from natural gas, coal and oil. The impacts are first considered at the level of individual technologies, followed by the evaluation of the fossil-fuel electricity mix over the period. The study has been carried out using detailed primary data for 94 operating plants. Considering individual technologies, coal power has the worst performance for eight out of 11 impacts, with eutrophication, freshwater and marine ecotoxicity being between ten and 240 times greater than for gas. However, oil is worse than coal for photochemical oxidants (31%) and depletion of elements and ozone layer (four and eight times, respectively). Between 2004 and 2014, the annual environmental impacts doubled, while electricity generation rose only by 55%. The only exception to this is ozone depletion which fell by around 4%. The highest impacts occurred in 2014 mainly because of the high contribution of coal power. Therefore, the environmental performance of fossil-based electricity in Chile has worsened over time due to the growing share of coal power, coupled with the increasing electricity demand. Consequently, policy should aim to increase the efficiency of power plants, avoid the use of petroleum coke, improve emissions control and replace coal and oil with gas power as soon as possible.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}