Tyndall Centre Publications
The following database includes publications by researchers exclusively from the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the University of Manchester.
12.
Li, Wenzhu; Cunningham, Lee; Osman, Ashraf; Sun, Hongjian
Enhancing Grid Flood Resilience with CFD Fragility Modelling and Risk-Constrained DRL Proceedings Article
In: 2025 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm), pp. 1–6, IEEE, United States, 2025, (2025 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm) ; Conference date: 29-09-2025 Through 02-10-2025).
@inproceedings{7cdd4696834748c4bba233a6ace1355d,
title = {Enhancing Grid Flood Resilience with CFD Fragility Modelling and Risk-Constrained DRL},
author = {Wenzhu Li and Lee Cunningham and Ashraf Osman and Hongjian Sun},
url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/conhome/11204555/proceeding},
doi = {10.1109/SmartGridComm65349.2025.11204561},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-21},
booktitle = {2025 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm)},
pages = {1–6},
publisher = {IEEE},
address = {United States},
abstract = {Flood-induced failures in power distribution networks compromise grid resilience, while existing resilient control strategies often rely on static risk models and lack integration with physical flood dynamics. This paper presents a hybrid framework that combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) with Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to enable dynamic risk-aware control under evolving flood conditions. High-resolution flood scenarios are simulated using ANSYS Fluent, where stochastic hydrodynamic parameters are sampled from calibrated Weibull distributions. These parameters are embedded into a Maskable Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) agent trained with Conditional Value-at Risk (CVaR) constraints, enabling the learning of risk constrained control policies without requiring real-time CFD computations. This architecture preserves physical fidelity while ensuring dynamic feasibility. When evaluated on the extended IEEE 123-bus feeder, the proposed CFD–DRL controller achieves a 49% reduction in energy not supplied (ENS) and improves CVaR compliance from 85% to 98%, compared to the conventional MPC baseline. The results demonstrate that integrating high-fidelity numerical modelling with scalable learning-based control significantly enhances the adaptability and robustness of flood-resilient grid operations.},
note = {2025 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm) ; Conference date: 29-09-2025 Through 02-10-2025},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
Flood-induced failures in power distribution networks compromise grid resilience, while existing resilient control strategies often rely on static risk models and lack integration with physical flood dynamics. This paper presents a hybrid framework that combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) with Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to enable dynamic risk-aware control under evolving flood conditions. High-resolution flood scenarios are simulated using ANSYS Fluent, where stochastic hydrodynamic parameters are sampled from calibrated Weibull distributions. These parameters are embedded into a Maskable Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) agent trained with Conditional Value-at Risk (CVaR) constraints, enabling the learning of risk constrained control policies without requiring real-time CFD computations. This architecture preserves physical fidelity while ensuring dynamic feasibility. When evaluated on the extended IEEE 123-bus feeder, the proposed CFD–DRL controller achieves a 49% reduction in energy not supplied (ENS) and improves CVaR compliance from 85% to 98%, compared to the conventional MPC baseline. The results demonstrate that integrating high-fidelity numerical modelling with scalable learning-based control significantly enhances the adaptability and robustness of flood-resilient grid operations.
11.
Wu, Hangxing; Zhang, Min; He, Yi; Chen, Peiyan; Pasquier, Ulysse; Hu, Hengzhi; Wen, Jiahong
Scenario-based flood adaption of a fast-developing delta city: Modeling the extreme compound flood adaptations for Shanghai Journal Article
In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, vol. 117, 2025, ISSN: 2212-4209, (Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request. Funding information: This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42171282) and Shanghai Pujiang Program (21PJC096).).
@article{f2f92852ea0e4f539c8679910463e0d2,
title = {Scenario-based flood adaption of a fast-developing delta city: Modeling the extreme compound flood adaptations for Shanghai},
author = {Hangxing Wu and Min Zhang and Yi He and Peiyan Chen and Ulysse Pasquier and Hengzhi Hu and Jiahong Wen},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105207},
issn = {2212-4209},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-01},
journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
volume = {117},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The heavy Zhengzhou "7·20" rainstorm, partially caused by Typhoon In-fa in 2021, poured an unprecedented rainfall of 201.9 mm/h, leading to severe flooding and damage. Although many studies in various Chinese cities have preliminarily assessed the potential flood losses under "7·20" rainstorm, much research has focused on the contribution of climate change, limited attention has been paid to the potential impacts of urbanization development, which is crucial for designing flood adaptation strategies. Using high-resolution ocean-land coupled numerical model, we focus on Shanghai, a fast-developing delta city, to evaluate the potential impact of "7·20" rainstorm associated with local coastal storm hazards for flood adaptation planning under future urbanization scenarios. Our findings reveal that rapid urbanization in Shanghai can significantly amplify flood risks caused by events equivalent to "7·20" rainstorm. By 2050, the projected increases in exposed assets and losses can be up to 8 and 5 times, respectively, if such events occur. The adaptation measure of heightening seawalls and dikes provides robust protection against compound fluvial-coastal flooding events, but is costly and less effective against pluvial flooding. In contrast, low-impact development measures of increasing green area may not offer the highest asset exposure reduction but have low initial costs and provide significant ecological benefits. Lowering green space offers the greatest reduction in exposed assets and losses from pluvial flooding, but it’s also costly and may alter the urban landscape. A combination of these measures, where applicable, is recommended to optimize flood resilience and promote sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing delta cities.},
note = {Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request. Funding information: This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42171282) and Shanghai Pujiang Program (21PJC096).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The heavy Zhengzhou "7·20" rainstorm, partially caused by Typhoon In-fa in 2021, poured an unprecedented rainfall of 201.9 mm/h, leading to severe flooding and damage. Although many studies in various Chinese cities have preliminarily assessed the potential flood losses under "7·20" rainstorm, much research has focused on the contribution of climate change, limited attention has been paid to the potential impacts of urbanization development, which is crucial for designing flood adaptation strategies. Using high-resolution ocean-land coupled numerical model, we focus on Shanghai, a fast-developing delta city, to evaluate the potential impact of "7·20" rainstorm associated with local coastal storm hazards for flood adaptation planning under future urbanization scenarios. Our findings reveal that rapid urbanization in Shanghai can significantly amplify flood risks caused by events equivalent to "7·20" rainstorm. By 2050, the projected increases in exposed assets and losses can be up to 8 and 5 times, respectively, if such events occur. The adaptation measure of heightening seawalls and dikes provides robust protection against compound fluvial-coastal flooding events, but is costly and less effective against pluvial flooding. In contrast, low-impact development measures of increasing green area may not offer the highest asset exposure reduction but have low initial costs and provide significant ecological benefits. Lowering green space offers the greatest reduction in exposed assets and losses from pluvial flooding, but it’s also costly and may alter the urban landscape. A combination of these measures, where applicable, is recommended to optimize flood resilience and promote sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing delta cities.
10.
Wilder, Thomas; Zhai, Xiaoming; Munday, David R.; Joshi, Manoj
Constraining an eddy energy dissipation rate due to relative wind stress for use in energy budget-based eddy parameterisations Journal Article
In: Ocean Science, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 1669–1686, 2023, ISSN: 1812-0784, (Financial support: This work was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council through the EnvEast Doctoral Training Partnership (grant no. NE/L002582/1) and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003536 (ESM2025 – Earth System Models for the Future).).
@article{0fb8588e561e4b7c98c20a9d558d183f,
title = {Constraining an eddy energy dissipation rate due to relative wind stress for use in energy budget-based eddy parameterisations},
author = {Thomas Wilder and Xiaoming Zhai and David R. Munday and Manoj Joshi},
doi = {10.5194/os-19-1669-2023},
issn = {1812-0784},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-30},
journal = {Ocean Science},
volume = {19},
number = {6},
pages = {1669–1686},
publisher = {European Geosciences Union},
abstract = {A geostrophic eddy energy dissipation rate due to the interaction of the large-scale wind field and mesoscale ocean currents, or relative wind stress, is derived here for use in eddy energy budget-based eddy parameterisations. We begin this work by analytically deriving a relative wind stress damping term and a baroclinic geostrophic eddy energy equation. The time evolution of this analytical eddy energy in response to relative wind stress damping is compared directly with a baroclinic eddy in a general circulation model for both anticyclones and cyclones. The dissipation of eddy energy is comparable between each model and eddy type, although the numerical model diverges from the analytical model at around day 150, likely due to the presence of non-linear baroclinic processes. A constrained dissipation rate due to relative wind stress is then proposed using terms from the analytical eddy energy budget. This dissipation rate depends on the potential energy of the eddy thermocline displacement, which also depends on eddy length scale. Using an array of ocean datasets, and computing two forms for the eddy length scale, a range of values for the dissipation rate are presented. The analytical dissipation rate is found to vary from 0.25 to 4 times that of a constant dissipation rate employed in previous studies. The dissipation rates are generally enhanced in the Southern Ocean but smaller in the western boundaries. This proposed dissipation rate offers a tool to parameterise the damping of total eddy energy in coarse resolution global climate models and may have implications for a wide range of climate processes.},
note = {Financial support: This work was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council through the EnvEast Doctoral Training Partnership (grant no. NE/L002582/1) and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003536 (ESM2025 – Earth System Models for the Future).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
A geostrophic eddy energy dissipation rate due to the interaction of the large-scale wind field and mesoscale ocean currents, or relative wind stress, is derived here for use in eddy energy budget-based eddy parameterisations. We begin this work by analytically deriving a relative wind stress damping term and a baroclinic geostrophic eddy energy equation. The time evolution of this analytical eddy energy in response to relative wind stress damping is compared directly with a baroclinic eddy in a general circulation model for both anticyclones and cyclones. The dissipation of eddy energy is comparable between each model and eddy type, although the numerical model diverges from the analytical model at around day 150, likely due to the presence of non-linear baroclinic processes. A constrained dissipation rate due to relative wind stress is then proposed using terms from the analytical eddy energy budget. This dissipation rate depends on the potential energy of the eddy thermocline displacement, which also depends on eddy length scale. Using an array of ocean datasets, and computing two forms for the eddy length scale, a range of values for the dissipation rate are presented. The analytical dissipation rate is found to vary from 0.25 to 4 times that of a constant dissipation rate employed in previous studies. The dissipation rates are generally enhanced in the Southern Ocean but smaller in the western boundaries. This proposed dissipation rate offers a tool to parameterise the damping of total eddy energy in coarse resolution global climate models and may have implications for a wide range of climate processes.
9.
Wilder, Thomas; Zhai, Xiaoming; Munday, David R.; Joshi, Manoj
The response of a baroclinic anticyclonic eddy to relative wind stress forcing Journal Article
In: Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol. 52, no. 9, pp. 2129–2142, 2022, ISSN: 0022-3670, (Funding Information: This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council through the EnvEast Doctoral Training Partnership (Grant NE/L002582/1).).
@article{6860f994446340798ff78543a21ee77d,
title = {The response of a baroclinic anticyclonic eddy to relative wind stress forcing},
author = {Thomas Wilder and Xiaoming Zhai and David R. Munday and Manoj Joshi},
doi = {10.1175/JPO-D-22-0044.1},
issn = {0022-3670},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-09-01},
journal = {Journal of Physical Oceanography},
volume = {52},
number = {9},
pages = {2129–2142},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
abstract = {Including the ocean surface current in the calculation of wind stress is known to damp mesoscale eddies through a negative wind power input, and have potential ramifications for eddy longevity. Here, we study the spin-down of a baroclinic anticyclonic eddy subject to absolute (no ocean surface current) and relative (including ocean surface current) wind stress forcing by employing an idealised high-resolution numerical model. Results from this study demonstrate that relative wind stress dissipates surface mean kinetic energy (MKE) and also generates additional vertical motions throughout the whole water column via Ekman pumping. Wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping generates additional baroclinic conversion (mean potential to mean kinetic energy) that is found to offset the damping of surface MKE by increasing deep MKE. A scaling analysis of relative wind stress-induced baroclinic conversion and relative wind stress damping confirms these numerical findings, showing that additional energy conversion counteracts relative wind stress damping. What is more, wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping is found to modify surface potential vorticity gradients that lead to an earlier destabilisation of the eddy. Therefore, the onset of eddy instabilities and eventual eddy decay takes place on a shorter timescale in the simulation with relative wind stress.},
note = {Funding Information: This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council through the EnvEast Doctoral Training Partnership (Grant NE/L002582/1).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Including the ocean surface current in the calculation of wind stress is known to damp mesoscale eddies through a negative wind power input, and have potential ramifications for eddy longevity. Here, we study the spin-down of a baroclinic anticyclonic eddy subject to absolute (no ocean surface current) and relative (including ocean surface current) wind stress forcing by employing an idealised high-resolution numerical model. Results from this study demonstrate that relative wind stress dissipates surface mean kinetic energy (MKE) and also generates additional vertical motions throughout the whole water column via Ekman pumping. Wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping generates additional baroclinic conversion (mean potential to mean kinetic energy) that is found to offset the damping of surface MKE by increasing deep MKE. A scaling analysis of relative wind stress-induced baroclinic conversion and relative wind stress damping confirms these numerical findings, showing that additional energy conversion counteracts relative wind stress damping. What is more, wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping is found to modify surface potential vorticity gradients that lead to an earlier destabilisation of the eddy. Therefore, the onset of eddy instabilities and eventual eddy decay takes place on a shorter timescale in the simulation with relative wind stress.
8.
Traut, M.; Gilbert, P.; Walsh, C.; Bows, A.; Filippone, A.; Stansby, P.; Wood, R.
Propulsive power contribution of a kite and a Flettner rotor on selected shipping routes Journal Article
In: Applied Energy, vol. 113, no. 1, pp. 362–372, 2014, ISSN: 0306-2619.
@article{d65fb8afbb5749eeaf32456ae47b6718b,
title = {Propulsive power contribution of a kite and a Flettner rotor on selected shipping routes},
author = {M. Traut and P. Gilbert and C. Walsh and A. Bows and A. Filippone and P. Stansby and R. Wood},
doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.07.026},
issn = {0306-2619},
year = {2014},
date = {2014-01-01},
journal = {Applied Energy},
volume = {113},
number = {1},
pages = {362–372},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Wind is a renewable energy source that is freely available on the world’s oceans. As shipping faces the challenge of reducing its dependence on fossil fuels and cutting its carbon emissions this paper seeks to explore the potential for harnessing wind power for shipping. Numerical models of two wind power technologies, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite, are linked with wind data along a set of five trade routes. Wind-generated thrust and propulsive power are computed as a function of local wind and ship velocity. The average wind power contribution on a given route ranges between 193 kW and 373 kW for a single Flettner rotor and between 127 kW and 461 kW for the towing kite. The variability of the power output from the Flettner rotor is shown to be smaller than that from the towing kite while, due to the different dependencies on wind speed and direction, the average power contribution from a Flettner rotor is higher than that from the kite on some routes and lower on others.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Wind is a renewable energy source that is freely available on the world’s oceans. As shipping faces the challenge of reducing its dependence on fossil fuels and cutting its carbon emissions this paper seeks to explore the potential for harnessing wind power for shipping. Numerical models of two wind power technologies, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite, are linked with wind data along a set of five trade routes. Wind-generated thrust and propulsive power are computed as a function of local wind and ship velocity. The average wind power contribution on a given route ranges between 193 kW and 373 kW for a single Flettner rotor and between 127 kW and 461 kW for the towing kite. The variability of the power output from the Flettner rotor is shown to be smaller than that from the towing kite while, due to the different dependencies on wind speed and direction, the average power contribution from a Flettner rotor is higher than that from the kite on some routes and lower on others.
7.
Traut, M.; Gilbert, P.; Walsh, C.; Bows, A.; Filippone, A.; Stansby, P.; Wood, R.
Propulsive power contribution of a kite and a Flettner rotor on selected shipping routes Journal Article
In: Applied Energy, vol. 113, no. 1, pp. 362–372, 2014, ISSN: 0306-2619.
@article{d65fb8afbb5749eeaf32456ae47b6718,
title = {Propulsive power contribution of a kite and a Flettner rotor on selected shipping routes},
author = {M. Traut and P. Gilbert and C. Walsh and A. Bows and A. Filippone and P. Stansby and R. Wood},
doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.07.026},
issn = {0306-2619},
year = {2014},
date = {2014-01-01},
journal = {Applied Energy},
volume = {113},
number = {1},
pages = {362–372},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Wind is a renewable energy source that is freely available on the world’s oceans. As shipping faces the challenge of reducing its dependence on fossil fuels and cutting its carbon emissions this paper seeks to explore the potential for harnessing wind power for shipping. Numerical models of two wind power technologies, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite, are linked with wind data along a set of five trade routes. Wind-generated thrust and propulsive power are computed as a function of local wind and ship velocity. The average wind power contribution on a given route ranges between 193 kW and 373 kW for a single Flettner rotor and between 127 kW and 461 kW for the towing kite. The variability of the power output from the Flettner rotor is shown to be smaller than that from the towing kite while, due to the different dependencies on wind speed and direction, the average power contribution from a Flettner rotor is higher than that from the kite on some routes and lower on others.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Wind is a renewable energy source that is freely available on the world’s oceans. As shipping faces the challenge of reducing its dependence on fossil fuels and cutting its carbon emissions this paper seeks to explore the potential for harnessing wind power for shipping. Numerical models of two wind power technologies, a Flettner rotor and a towing kite, are linked with wind data along a set of five trade routes. Wind-generated thrust and propulsive power are computed as a function of local wind and ship velocity. The average wind power contribution on a given route ranges between 193 kW and 373 kW for a single Flettner rotor and between 127 kW and 461 kW for the towing kite. The variability of the power output from the Flettner rotor is shown to be smaller than that from the towing kite while, due to the different dependencies on wind speed and direction, the average power contribution from a Flettner rotor is higher than that from the kite on some routes and lower on others.
6.
Lenton, TM; Vaughan, NE
The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options Journal Article
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 9, no. 15, pp. 5539–5561, 2009, ISSN: 1680-7324, (Gold Open Access).
@article{c58e2861ed8b43f18f84ccc281958851,
title = {The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options},
author = {TM Lenton and NE Vaughan},
doi = {www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/5539/2009/},
issn = {1680-7324},
year = {2009},
date = {2009-01-01},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
volume = {9},
number = {15},
pages = {5539--5561},
publisher = {European Geosciences Union},
abstract = {Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO2 emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges", but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean upwelling or downwelling have trivial effects on any meaningful timescale. Our approach provides a common framework for the evaluation of climate geoengineering proposals, and our results should help inform the prioritisation of further research into them.},
note = {Gold Open Access},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO2 emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges", but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean upwelling or downwelling have trivial effects on any meaningful timescale. Our approach provides a common framework for the evaluation of climate geoengineering proposals, and our results should help inform the prioritisation of further research into them.
5.
Vaughan, N; Lenton, T
The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options Journal Article
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 9, pp. 5539–5561, 2009.
@article{1358,
title = {The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options},
author = {N Vaughan and T Lenton},
url = {www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/5539/2009/},
year = {2009},
date = {2009-01-01},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
volume = {9},
pages = {5539–5561},
chapter = {5539},
abstract = {Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earthtextquoterights current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO2 emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation textquotedblleftwedgestextquotedblright, but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean upwelling or downwelling have trivial effects on any meaningful timescale. Our approach provides a common framework for the evaluation of climate geoengineering proposals, and our results should help inform the prioritisation of further research into them.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earthtextquoterights current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO2 emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation textquotedblleftwedgestextquotedblright, but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean upwelling or downwelling have trivial effects on any meaningful timescale. Our approach provides a common framework for the evaluation of climate geoengineering proposals, and our results should help inform the prioritisation of further research into them.
4.
Dickson, M E; Walkden, M; Hall, JW; Pearson, S; Rees, J
Numerical modelling of potential climate-change impacts on rates of soft-cliff recession, northeast Norfolk, UK Journal Article
In: Coastal Dynamics textquoteright05, 2006.
@article{654b,
title = {Numerical modelling of potential climate-change impacts on rates of soft-cliff recession, northeast Norfolk, UK},
author = {M E Dickson and M Walkden and JW Hall and S Pearson and J Rees},
year = {2006},
date = {2006-01-01},
journal = {Coastal Dynamics textquoteright05},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
3.
Bates, P; Dawson, R; Hall, JW; Horritt, M; Nicholls, R J; Wicks, R J; Hassan, MAAM
Simplified two-dimensional numerical modelling of coastal flooding and example applications Journal Article
In: Coastal Engineering, vol. 52, no. 9, pp. 793-810, 2005.
@article{476,
title = {Simplified two-dimensional numerical modelling of coastal flooding and example applications},
author = {P Bates and R Dawson and JW Hall and M Horritt and R J Nicholls and R J Wicks and MAAM Hassan},
year = {2005},
date = {2005-01-01},
journal = {Coastal Engineering},
volume = {52},
number = {9},
pages = {793-810},
chapter = {793},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
2.
Fuentes, M; Guttorp, P; Challenor, P
Statistical assessment of numerical models Journal Article
In: International Statistical Review, vol. 71, no. 2, pp. 201-221, 2003.
@article{709b,
title = {Statistical assessment of numerical models},
author = {M Fuentes and P Guttorp and P Challenor},
year = {2003},
date = {2003-01-01},
journal = {International Statistical Review},
volume = {71},
number = {2},
pages = {201-221},
chapter = {201},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
1.
Latos, Beata; Ferrett, Samantha; Lefort, Thierry; Matthews, Adrian J.; Lubis, Sandro W.; Senior, Natasha V.; Peyrillé, Philippe; Nguyen, Hanh; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Diong, Jeong-Yik; Baranowski, Dariusz B.; Flatau, Maria K.; Flatau, Piotr J.; Pramuwardani, Ida; Muhammad, Fadhlil R.; Permana, Donaldi S.; Ferdiansyah, Muhamad R.; Wandala, Agie; Kiki,; Abubakar, Idhan; Praditya, Tito; Hermawan, Eddy; Piskozub, Jacek
The role of equatorial waves in triggering precipitation extremes in the Maritime Continent Journal Article
In: Monthly Weather Review, 0000, ISSN: 0027-0644, (Availability Statement: GPM-IMERG precipitation data were supplied by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration through their website at https://gpm.nasa.gov/. ERA5 and ERA-Interim data were accessed from the Copernicus climate data store (CDS) at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/ (doi:10.24381/cds/bd0915c6). MetUM forecast data used in this study may be supplied upon request from the corresponding author. Data availability of other NWP models used in this study are outlined in Table. 1 and can be obtained from the S2S and TIGGE databases. CCKW trajectories are available at https://github.com/adrianjmatthews/CCKW database. The analysis was conducted using custom scripts developed in Python, which are available upon request from the corresponding author.).
@article{246190b874974d709ef8a291091c223f,
title = {The role of equatorial waves in triggering precipitation extremes in the Maritime Continent},
author = {Beata Latos and Samantha Ferrett and Thierry Lefort and Adrian J. Matthews and Sandro W. Lubis and Natasha V. Senior and Philippe Peyrillé and Hanh Nguyen and Matthew C. Wheeler and Jeong-Yik Diong and Dariusz B. Baranowski and Maria K. Flatau and Piotr J. Flatau and Ida Pramuwardani and Fadhlil R. Muhammad and Donaldi S. Permana and Muhamad R. Ferdiansyah and Agie Wandala and Kiki and Idhan Abubakar and Tito Praditya and Eddy Hermawan and Jacek Piskozub},
issn = {0027-0644},
journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
abstract = {This review offers a comprehensive analysis of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and their pivotal role in driving precipitation extremes across the Maritime Continent. It examines the current understanding of CCEWs, evaluates the performance of numerical models and forecasting techniques in predicting these phenomena, and pinpoints critical areas for improvement. The discussion centers on three key types of equatorial waves: equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. By connecting scientific insights with practical forecasting applications, the review sheds light on the challenges of predicting these waves while identifying opportunities to advance both fundamental knowledge and forecasting accuracy. Designed as an educational resource, it targets operational forecasting centers, meteorologists, and researchers, aiming to enhance the prediction of extreme weather events in the region.},
note = {Availability Statement: GPM-IMERG precipitation data were supplied by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration through their website at https://gpm.nasa.gov/. ERA5 and ERA-Interim data were accessed from the Copernicus climate data store (CDS) at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/ (doi:10.24381/cds/bd0915c6). MetUM forecast data used in this study may be supplied upon request from the corresponding author. Data availability of other NWP models used in this study are outlined in Table. 1 and can be obtained from the S2S and TIGGE databases. CCKW trajectories are available at https://github.com/adrianjmatthews/CCKW database. The analysis was conducted using custom scripts developed in Python, which are available upon request from the corresponding author.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This review offers a comprehensive analysis of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and their pivotal role in driving precipitation extremes across the Maritime Continent. It examines the current understanding of CCEWs, evaluates the performance of numerical models and forecasting techniques in predicting these phenomena, and pinpoints critical areas for improvement. The discussion centers on three key types of equatorial waves: equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. By connecting scientific insights with practical forecasting applications, the review sheds light on the challenges of predicting these waves while identifying opportunities to advance both fundamental knowledge and forecasting accuracy. Designed as an educational resource, it targets operational forecasting centers, meteorologists, and researchers, aiming to enhance the prediction of extreme weather events in the region.
