Tyndall Centre Publications

@article{44bdfe45099749eab2f17f7304aed214,

title = {Beyond the runway – Quantifying the climate impact of international catering waste},

author = {Lois Pennington and Andrew Welfle and Ben Parkes and Alice Larkin},

issn = {0956-053X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-08-12},

journal = {Waste Management},

volume = {203},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {International flights generate substantial volumes of waste that pose a unique environmental challenge, as strict biosecurity regulations require it to be disposed of through destructive methods across the world. However, the impact on the world’s climate of managing this waste remains unquantified and largely disregarded in aviation mitigation discussions. This study presents the first analysis of the contribution of cabin waste management to climate change, developing a novel methodology that combines passenger movement data with waste generation factors to quantify volumes, composition, and greenhouse gas emissions of national cabin waste. Applied to the United Kingdom as a case study, our analysis estimates that that approximately 89,000 tonnes of cabin waste entered the UK in 2022. This generated between 10,400 and 40,500 tonnes of CO2 equivalent due to the mandated disposal in landfill or incineration. This climate impact is driven by regulatory requirements that prevent more sustainable waste treatment methods, and by slow industry innovations. Our model demonstrates that allowing cabin waste to be treated like domestic waste could generate climate benefits of 33,900 tonnes CO2 equivalent, through material and energy recovery. With aviation movements projected to grow through to 2050, we identify specific actions that could enable more sustainable cabin waste treatment while maintaining high levels of biosecurity. This research provides a replicable framework for other nations to quantify their cabin waste climate impacts, and evidence-based pathways for urgent regulation and operational reform.},

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@article{955a5c3b3d68404b89e364d68e0e071b,

title = {Understanding farmer preferences to guide crop improvement: The case of grasspea in Ethiopia},

author = {Matthew Heaton and Borja Perez-Viana and Peter Emmrich and Belay Mulat and Arjan Verschoor},

doi = {10.1080/00220388.2025.2453519},

issn = {0022-0388},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-08-01},

journal = {Journal of Development Studies},

volume = {61},

number = {8},

pages = {1221–1241},

publisher = {Routledge},

abstract = {Building climate resilience in agriculture may usefully rely on crop improvement informed by social science studies of farmer preferences. Here, we present the case of grasspea in Ethiopia, a resilient and nutritious legume that can survive conditions where many other crops fail. Excessive consumption however carries the risk of an irreversible, crippling disease, this is possible in the future since the weather extremes that climate change is predicted to bring will create the conditions in which grasspea is one of the food sources that will likely see increased consumption. Crucially, farmers are not fully aware of this risk and may therefore not adopt the low-toxin grasspea that crop scientists have developed and that is about to enter the breeding pipeline. In this study we use focus group discussions, key informant interviews and choice experiments to investigate farmer preferences for grasspea improvement. We confirm that farmers do not place much value on reduced toxicity. Instead, they have strong preferences for other improvements, such as resistance to pests. This suggests that improvements that are needed in future but not yet preferred (i.e. reduced toxicity) should be bundled with improvements that farmers already prefer.},

note = {Funding information: This study was supported by the Global Challenges Research Fund. This work was made possible thanks to UKRI-BBSRC funding from the GCRF Agri-Tech Catalyst programme, grant number GCRF-SA-2020-JIC, and GCRF QR funds Rapid Response funds, grant number RR0620-7.},

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@article{38c966b14c364301bc90253d56d8520b,

title = {Smoking cessation supported by a smartphone app: A qualitative process evaluation of the Quit Sense feasibility RCT},

author = {Aimie Hope and Felix Naughton and Caitlin Notley},

doi = {10.1111/bjhp.70010},

issn = {1359-107X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-25},

journal = {British Journal of Health Psychology},

volume = {30},

number = {3},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Objectives: Quit Sense is a Just-in-Time Adaptive Intervention (JITAI) smartphone app that provides real-time automated and in-situ support to help people attempting to quit smoking manage cue-induced cravings. This process evaluation study explored views and experiences of feasibility trial participants and assessed: (1) intervention experiences, (2) how these might help explain causal path-ways towards behaviour change and (3) experiences of study participation. Design: Qualitative interviews nested within a two-arm feasibility randomized control trial. Methods: We purposefully sampled 20 participants (15intervention, 5 usual care) for semi-structured telephone interviews. Data were thematically analysed and was supplemented with a descriptive analysis of relevant experiences to hypothesize causal pathways to behaviour change. Results: Motivations for engaging in the trial and intervention included wanting greater accountability and to be part of something. Reasons for disengaging included success-fully quitting (app no longer needed), lapsing/relapsing and preferring other support types. Mechanisms which reportedly enabled successful quit attempts included the app's pre-quit preparation phase through insights into smoking cues, the delivery of lapse avoidance strategies and the supportive messages which helped to reinforce the goal of quitting. The trial was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic and provided examples of situations and contexts in which Quit Sense was used and felt to be (un)helpful for cessation. Conclusions: The Quit Sense app and trial were well received by participants. Participants reported that the preparation phase used for app training prior to their quit date was of particular value and not currently offered by other apps tried.},

note = {DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: The data underlying this article will be shared upon reasonable request to the corresponding author. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research Programme (17/92/31). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.},

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}

@article{73ad904632cd4c7ab8e19f606c7e5f24,

title = {Indigenous contestations of carbon markets, carbon colonialism, and power dynamics in international climate negotiations},

author = {Zeynep Durmaz and Heike Schroeder},

doi = {10.3390/cli13080158},

issn = {2225-1154},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-24},

journal = {Climate},

volume = {13},

number = {8},

publisher = {MDPI AG},

abstract = {This paper examines the intersection of global climate governance, carbon markets, and Indigenous Peoples’ rights under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It critically analyses how Indigenous Peoples have contested the Article 6 market mechanisms of the Paris Agreement at the height of their negotiation during COP25 and COP26 by drawing attention to their role in perpetuating “carbon colonialism,” thereby revealing deeper power dynamics in global climate governance. Utilising a political ecology framework, this study explores these power dynamics at play during the climate negotiations, focusing on the instrumental, structural, and discursive forms of power that enable or limit Indigenous participation. Through a qualitative case study approach, the research reveals that while Indigenous Peoples have successfully used discursive strategies to challenge market-based solutions, their influence remains limited due to entrenched structural and instrumental power imbalances within the UNFCCC process. This study highlights the need for equitable policies that integrate human rights safeguards and prioritise Indigenous-led, non-market-based approaches to ecological restoration.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author.},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{208afcf3e12b49d586c1971b359af1d3,

title = {Physical processes influencing the Asian climate due to black carbon emission over East and South Asia},

author = {Feifei Luo and Bjørn H. Samset and Camilla W. Stjern and Manoj Joshi and Laura J. Wilcox and Robert J. Allen and Wei Hua and Shuanglin Li},

doi = {10.5194/acp-25-7647-2025},

issn = {1680-7375},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-21},

journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},

volume = {25},

number = {14},

pages = {7647–7667},

publisher = {Copernicus Publications},

abstract = {Many studies have shown that black carbon (BC) aerosols over Asia have significant impacts on regional climate, but with large diversities in intensity, spatial distribution and physical mechanism of regional responses. In this study, we utilized a set of Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) using a reduced complexity climate model, FORTE2, to investigate responses of the Asian climate to BC aerosols over East Asia only, South Asia only, and both regions at once, and thoroughly examine related physical processes. Results show that regional BC aerosols lead to a strong surface cooling, air temperature warming in the low-level troposphere, and drying over the perturbed areas, with seasonal differences in magnitude and spatial distribution. Atmospheric energy budget analysis suggests that reductions in local precipitation primarily depend on the substantial local atmospheric heating due to shortwave absorption by BC. Increases in dry static energy (DSE) flux divergence partly offset the reduced precipitation over north China in summer and most of China and India in the other three seasons. Decreases in DSE flux divergence lead to stronger reduction in precipitation over south China and central India in summer. Changes in DSE flux divergence are mainly due to vertical motions driven by diabatic heating in the middle and lower troposphere. BC perturbations also exert non-local climate impacts through the changes in DSE flux divergence. This study provides a full chain of physical processes of the local climate responses to the Asian BC increases, and gives some insights to better understand the uncertainties of model responses.},

note = {Data availability statement: The NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20th Century Reanalysis V3 (20CR) datasets are obtained from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.html (Compo et al., 2011). HadSLP is provided by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and can be downloaded at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadslp2/ (Allan and Ansell, 2006). The PDRMIP data can be accessed through the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) data server at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PDRMIP_2012-2021 (Andrews et al., 2021). Data of the SyRAP–FORTE2 experiments reported in this paper are available without restriction on reasonable request to Camilla W. Stjern at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research. Financial support: This research has been supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (grant no. 2019QZKK010203).},

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@article{ee5cfded298341c6abbb55418a1ef2ba,

title = {Empowering European farmers: Insights from decolonial theory and indigenous people in Latin America},

author = {L. Lecuye and S. Calla and Brendan Coolsaet and I. Rodriguez and J. C. Young},

doi = {10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103651},

issn = {0743-0167},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Journal of Rural Studies},

volume = {117},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {The modernization of European agriculture and new societal concerns around global environmental change and food quality have led to forms of marginalization and misrecognition of European farmers. These include limited political agency in decision-making, economic dependency on industrial inputs, devaluation of traditional farming knowledge, restrictive regulatory frameworks, socio-technical lock-ins reinforcing productivist models, and increasing social stigmatization by the public. We draw parallels between the root causes of farmers' marginalization in Europe and the oppression of Indigenous people in the Global South. Their common struggle for recognition allows us to see how a decolonial approach could contribute to addressing the social malaise of farmers in Europe. There is much to learn from Indigenous people's experience in facing the coloniality matrix of power in their claim for more justice that could benefit farmers and the transformation toward a fairer agri-food system in Europe},

note = {Data availability statement: No data was used for the research described in the article. This work was supported by the French Investissements d’Avenir Program, Project ISITE-BFC (Contract ANR-15-IDEX-0003) and built on the collaboration of authors from the POWERBIODIV project, funded by Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB) of the Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB).},

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@article{218076dc0145416b9a00cdd0ce22b04d,

title = {Recognising and protecting the national benefit of sustainable fisheries in the UK},

author = {Sarah Coulthard and Ainsley Hatt and Phoebe Lewis and Bryce D. Stewart and Michael Roach and Robert Clark and Sam Fanshawe and Carole Sandrine White and Julie Urquhart and Jerry Percy and Tim Gray and Emily Bulled and Joe Richards and Rachel Turner and Edward Baker and Louisa Evans and Tom Chaigneau and Tom Hooper and Jack Longsden and Jeremy Anbleyth-Evans},

doi = {10.1111/faf.12898},

issn = {1467-2960},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Fish and Fisheries},

volume = {26},

number = {4},

pages = {561–576},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Sustainable commercial fishing makes valuable contributions to coastal regions and broader national benefits. This paper offers three arguments in relation to what is required for the societal benefits of sustainable fisheries to be fully realised and considers each in the context of the UK but with global relevance. First, there is a need to raise the profile of the full range of benefits that are delivered through sustainable fisheries to coastal communities and the broader public. In the UK, the delivery of a ‘national benefit’ objective through fisheries is now enshrined in law by the Fisheries Act, 2020; we operationalise this through a new framing that distils eight ‘national benefits’ that all sustainable fisheries should deliver. Second, better acknowledgement of what society gains from sustainable fisheries must be paralleled with recognition of what society is simultaneously at risk of losing through the decline of the fishing fleet. We detail this decline in a new analysis of long-term UK data, which highlights that the decline is unequally felt, with some regions of the UK, and small-scale fishing sectors, experiencing loss more acutely. This reality leads us to argue a third point, that if society is to retain and truly harness the benefits that flow from sustainable fisheries, governing bodies must act quickly to ensure that fisheries are environmentally sustainable, diverse and inclusive, pursuing fisheries that ‘leave no one behind’.},

note = {Fata Availability Statement: All data used in the assessment of fishing fleet decline is publicly available online via the Seafish fleet survey database, as referenced in the article.},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{0f4dea3a42c741a28e5050de1fbbc35d,

title = {Citizen voice and state response in the context of food system transformations},

author = {Nitya Rao and Emma Marzi and Isabel Baudish and Amar Laila and Costanza Conti and Christina Hicks},

doi = {10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102879},

issn = {0306-9192},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Food Policy},

volume = {134},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {This paper reviews the dynamic interplay between food activism and state responses, focusing on the diverse ways and strategies used by food movements to advocate for food systems transformation. More so, in a context of growing corporate control in food systems, food activism has been promoting just and sustainable alternatives. State reactions have been evolving, ranging from repression to policy change, to, in some cases, collaboration. Through a combination of summative content analysis of key themes across the literature and a thematic exploration of case studies, the paper highlights key trends in food activism and examines how governments have responded to them. By analysing the interactions between citizens and governments, this paper offers insights for both activists and policymakers seeking to build more inclusive and participatory food governance structures, in their efforts to transform food systems.},

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@article{3232f2d45b59419283f50d9ad0adc5dc,

title = {A systems perspective for climate adaptation in deltas},

author = {Sepehr Eslami and Gualbert Oude Essink and Amelie Paszkowski and Katharina Seeger and Philip S. J. Minderhoud and Kees Sloff and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-025-02368-0},

issn = {1758-678X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {15},

number = {7},

pages = {687–691},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Deltas are complex and are among the most vulnerable landforms under climate change. Studying them collectively highlights common stressors that drive their most significant challenges. A holistic conceptual framing of a delta and its feeding river basin is fundamental to effective adaptation planning.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{43696acdeecf4a5d8d2bf349da8f5d20,

title = {Corporate concentration and power matter for agency in food systems},

author = {Jennifer Clapp and Amar Laila and Costanza Conti and Christina Hicks and Rachael Vriezen and Line Gordon and Nitya Rao},

doi = {10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102897},

issn = {0306-9192},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Food Policy},

volume = {134},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {High levels of corporate concentration and power in agrifood supply chains raise important policy concerns because they can affect food systems in adverse ways. In this paper, we argue that increased corporate concentration and power in food systems has the capacity to undermine people’s agency– that is, their capability to make choices and exercise their voice. We explore three dimensions of the relationship between concentrated corporate power and people’s agency in food systems. First, dominant firms within highly concentrated food system segments can exercise market power, which enables them to earn excess profits – often by charging higher prices, suppressing wages, and weakening livelihood opportunities. Second, dominant agrifood firms have the capacity to shape material conditions within food systems – determining prevailing technologies used in food production, working conditions, levels of processing of packaged food items, and food environments – in ways that can affect people’s choices. Third, dominant agrifood firms can exercise political power by actively pursuing strategies to influence food policy and governance processes via lobbying and other more indirect measures, weakening opportunities for broader democratic participation in food systems governance. Given these potential outcomes, more policy attention should be paid to corporate concentration and its implications for agency within food systems.},

note = {Funding Information: This research was in part supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, grant # 435-2020-0664 (Clapp) and the Canada Reserach Chairs Program (Clapp).},

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@article{f9088dec2a5e49f99386bdc898ebafc9,

title = {Waste pickers in the Global South: understanding the key features that underpin the dominance of informality},

author = {Nicolás Labra Cataldo and Alejandro Gallego-Schmid and Carly McLachlan},

doi = {10.1080/15487733.2025.2478697},

issn = {1548-7733},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy},

volume = {21},

number = {1},

publisher = {National Biological Information Infrastructure},

abstract = {E-waste management in the Global South relies heavily on the informal sector. The associated workforce, vast in number, faces exposure to harmful substances and often represents society’s most vulnerable segments. While the coexistence of formality and informality has been widely documented, researchers have largely overlooked the features that lead to the thriving of informality. This study identifies these aspects through semi-structured interviews and participant observations with urban e-waste stakeholders in the Santiago Metropolitan Region of Chile. We discern six distinct working profiles (flea-market traders, scrap collectors, scrap dealers, scrapyard operators, collection-center managers, and treatment-company operators) that span a broad informality spectrum. From the characterization of the operations and labor aspects, we distill three key elements that determine the dominance of informality: agility (income-generation speed), capillarity (reach in the material collection), and flexibility (work-time adaptability). Our findings indicate that some profiles of the formal sector in the Santiago Metropolitan Region operate in a grey area with poor operational standards and a lack of contractual relationships, aligning them more closely with informality. We advocate for understanding and utilizing the features of informality to develop integration strategies and suggest a redefined understanding of formality in line with the diverse dimensions of vulnerability in the context of informality. While we identify potential opportunities to enhance a circular economy by embracing some of the advantages of the informal sector, future research should gauge the potential contributions of informality in terms of increasing collection and treatment rates and assess their environmental impact compared to formal services.},

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@article{57c517b101c847639b3b8006a517c8e9,

title = {Risk taking with social consequences},

author = {Paul Clist and Ben D'Exelle and Arjan Verschoor},

doi = {10.1080/00220388.2025.2453523},

issn = {0022-0388},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Journal of Development Studies},

volume = {61},

number = {7},

pages = {1148–1167},

publisher = {Routledge},

abstract = {Strong egalitarian norms and preferences may affect entrepreneurship. If people feel guilty of their success they may take fewer risks, whilst if they expect their successes to be celebrated, they would take more risks. In this paper we ask whether anticipated social consequences influence risky choices. Do people take more, less or the same risk when inequality results from risky choice? We provide experimental evidence from rural Uganda. Subjects choose lotteries for themselves and a partner under different risk resolutions, allowing us to identify their type. We find anticipated social consequences influence risk taking for most people, as only one quarter are indifferent. Two-fifths are ex post inequality seeking, holding their own pay off constant, and take more risk when inequality is common. This possibility is not considered by previous experiments in the West, but is the largest category for our sample. Only one-third are ex-post inequality averse, reducing inequality of outcomes at a cost to their expected earnings. We show types are robust, and document large gender-based heterogeneity. These results imply inequality-aversion is not holding back risk taking on average. Rather there is great heterogeneity in how people respond to anticipated social consequences.},

note = {Code availability: The data and code are available here https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MN2BMQ and https://paulclist.github.io/. Funding information: The research was funded by ESRC-DFID grant ES/J008893/1.},

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@article{ff34595773064f32b52b8d875c4b1671,

title = {Behavioral interventions in informal seed systems to nudge sustainable demand for quality seed of sweetpotato},

author = {Julius Juma Okello and David R. Just and Arjan Verschoor and Chalmers Mulwa and Mingcong Xie and Sylvester Ojwang and Sam Namanda and Benard Yada and Reuben Ssali and Moses Bunsen Okim and Janet Mwende Mutiso and Srinivasulu Rajendran and Hugo Campos},

doi = {10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104421},

issn = {0308-521X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-17},

journal = {Agricultural Systems},

volume = {229},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {CONTEXT: The introduction of quality-certified seed (QCS) in the informal farmer network-based seed systems, which have largely relied on informal signals of quality, represents a promising innovation towards integrated seed sector development, combining formal and informal sector elements. At the same time, behavioral nudges have emerged as potentially powerful ways to encourage the uptake of innovations among smallholder farmers in developing countries. OBJECTIVE: Here we examine whether nudges may be used to influence adoption rates of QCS in an informal seed system. METHODS: We focused on the use of text message reminders to increase the repurchase of sweetpotato vines that are certified to be free of pests and diseases. Our study site was a sweetpotato growing district in Uganda where yield is severely depressed due to sweetpotato virus disease and sweetpotato weevils. We used a randomized controlled trial involving 120 village clusters to test the effectiveness of text message reminders. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We observe some indication that initial text reminders increased the likelihood of repurchase. In subsequent seasons, additional reminders reduced this likelihood. This suggests that simple reminders may be a useful tool to encourage the swifter integration of formal and informal elements in seed systems, but that their repeated use may be counterproductive. SIGNIFICANCE: This study highlights the potential and limitations of using behavioral nudges to promote sustainable demand for quality seed in informal seed systems. Text reminders can initially encourage adoption of quality seed. However, careful consideration is needed regarding their frequency and implementation to avoid negative effects.},

note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request. Acknowledgments: This research was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), through its investment [OPP1213329] awarded to the International Potato Center (SweetGAINS); the CGIAR Initiative on Market Intelligence; Program for Seed System Innovation for Vegetatively propagated Crops in Africa (PROSSIVA) Project; and the CGIAR Initiative on Seed Equal. We also acknowledge research assistance support from Edwin Sserekumma, Harriet Ayoko, and John Robert Otukei, and logistical support from Dennis Odeke.},

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@article{6d81492361fa42a2a92f266fa021c4cf,

title = {Powering Africa’s sustainable future: The role of cross-border electricity trade on renewable electricity generation},

author = {Mercy Adaji and Nicholas Vasilakos and Bereket Kebede},

doi = {10.1177/0958305X251343068},

issn = {0958-305X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-02},

journal = {Energy & Environment},

publisher = {Sage Publications},

abstract = {Electricity trade plays a pivotal role in Africa's energy transition pathway, aiding in the distribution of new infrastructure costs, addressing the intermittency of renewable energies, and capitalising on their spatial concentration. Despite these advantages driving the establishment of a regional single electricity market, trading volumes remain relatively low. This study empirically explores Africa's cross-border electricity trade's influence on renewable electricity generation. Utilising a fixed effects model, data for 21 African countries from the World Bank and the International Energy Agency spanning 1996 to 2020 is collected and analysed. The results reveal that a 1% increase in electricity trade significantly raises the share of renewables in total electricity output by approximately 0.05%. Additionally, it is noted that net-exporting countries exhibit weaker positive impacts from electricity trade compared to net importers. Our results highlight the importance of governance quality as a driver of growth in the sector.},

note = {Funding information: This work was supported by the HORIZON EUROPE Climate, Energy and Mobility (Grant No. 101081377).},

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@article{6a2684c29dd14c0ebdd97b9f89edecbb,

title = {Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?},

author = {John Kenny and Michael S. Lewis-Beck},

doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933},

issn = {0261-3794},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Electoral Studies},

volume = {95},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.},

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@article{01c14b93b4a040d4810840f05551bdec,

title = {Unveiling pervasive assumptions: Moving beyond the poverty-biodiversity loss association in conservation},

author = {Rachel Carmenta and Mairon G. Bastos Lima and Shofwan A. B. Choiruzzad and Neil Dawson and Natalia Estrada-Carmona and Christina Hicks and Giorgos Kallis and Eric Nana and Evan Killick and Alexander Lees and Adrian Martin and Unai Pascual and Nathalie Pettorelli and James Reed and Esther Turnhout and Bhaskar Vira and Julie G. Zaehringer and Jos Barlow},

doi = {10.1016/j.cosust.2025.101537},

issn = {1877-3435},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability},

volume = {74},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {This paper reflects on the continued persistence of the idea in conservation research and practice that poverty drives biodiversity loss (the poverty-biodiversity loss association [PBLA]). We draw on evidence to show how the PBLA has proven resistant to counter-evidence and is particularly visible at local-level implementation, and is often implicit in conservation strategies. We untangle three underlying reasons that help to explain why the PBLA has persisted under a verisimilitude (seeming truth) that can leave it hiding in plain sight. In doing so, we offer conservation science and practice the means to recognise and thereby remedy this thinking where it exists, and in so doing, advance conservation towards its aims of equitable and effective delivery. We outline how the Connected Conservation model may be better equipped to challenge the disproportionate role of wealth in biodiversity decline whilst empowering biodiversity stewards and their plural knowledge, values and governance systems.},

note = {Data Availability: No data were used for the research described in the article.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{59f76545d25c4774aebbfb7ded0c2c91,

title = {Process-based machine learning observationally constrains future regional warming projections},

author = {Sophie Wilkinson and Peer Nowack and Manoj Joshi},

doi = {10.1029/2025JH000698},

issn = {2993-5210},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation},

volume = {2},

number = {2},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {We present the results of a novel process-based machine learning method to constrain climate model uncertainty in future regional temperature projections. Ridge-ERA5 - a ridge regression model - learns coefficients to represent observed relationships between daily near-surface temperature anomalies and predictor variables from ERA5 reanalysis in Northern Hemisphere land regions. Combining the historically constrained Ridge-ERA5 coefficients with inputs from CMIP6 future projections enables a derivation of observational constraints on regional warming. Although the multi-model mean falls within the constrained range of temperatures in all tested regions, a subset of models which predict the greatest degree of warming tend to be excluded and decomposition of the constraint into predictor variable contributions suggests error-cancellation of feedbacks in some models and regions.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: All reanalysis and CMIP6 data used in this study are publicly available. A specific list of data sets and variables accessed, data pre-processing steps, and Python code for analysis are archived in Zenodo and available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15115895 (Wilkinson, 2025). Acknowledgments: S.W. was supported by a University of East Anglia Faculty of Science PhD studentship. P.N. and M.J. were supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/V012045/1). We acknowledge the WCRP, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate-modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF. We further used the JASMIN postprocessing system (Lawrence et al., 2013) operated by the Science and Technology Facilities Council on behalf of the UK Natural Environment Research Council. The analysis presented in this paper was mostly carried out on the High Performance Computing Cluster supported by the Research and Specialist Computing Support service at the University of East Anglia.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{cc28d2ea5e00499b97f4fe9830622603,

title = {Avoid cherry-picking targets and embrace holistic conservation to pursue the global diodiversity framework},

author = {James Reed and Jos Barlow and Rachel Carmenta and Sima Fakheran and Amy Ickowitz and Terry Sunderland},

doi = {10.1111/conl.13104},

issn = {1755-263X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Conservation Letters},

volume = {18},

number = {3},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {The Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) marked a renewed commitment to addressing the global biodiversity crisis. This framework of four goals and 23 interim targets is intended to guide and accelerate conservation efforts over the next 25 years and is more ambitious than its predecessor, the Aichi 2020 targets. However, the pursuit of multilateral agreements is dependent upon national pledges, and the limited success of the Aichi targets shows that national pledges are of little worth without aligned (sub)national action. We assessed the submitted National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plans of several member countries to determine their alignment with the bold ambition of the GBF. We find a lack of alignment between the GBF and country submissions across many targets, with the notable exception of Target 3—commonly interpreted as increasing protected area coverage to 30% by 2030. Reflecting on the submissions, recent developments, and our collective experience, we outline key considerations that could help guide future submissions and implementation strategies. We caution against cherry-picking specific targets, highlighting that an overemphasis on Target 3 will fail to achieve the overarching vision of living in harmony with nature. This requires a more holistic and inclusive approach to conservation and a focus on the full suite of GBF targets.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: The authors have nothing to report. Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}