The UK now uses less energy than almost anyone anticipated 20 years ago, but opportunities to act on this potential were largely missed, according to a new report published by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at The University of Manchester today.
‘Decarbonising the UK Revisited‘ is being launched at the Tyndall Centre’s 25th anniversary conference at the University of East Anglia (UEA): Our Critical Decade for Climate Action Conference, a major meeting of 300 researchers from 20 countries.
The anniversary report, ‘Decarbonising the UK Revisited: Reflecting on 20 years of UK energy system scenarios and their policy implications’, is published to mark the Centre’s 25th year. The report reflects back at the Tyndall Centre’s own energy scenarios that were published in 2005. In 2005, the UK’s carbon reduction ambition was only 60% – it is now net zero. In 2005, David Miliband was Environment Secretary of the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA). Ed Miliband is now Secretary of State for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ).
‘Decarbonising the UK Revisited’ finds that while most energy scenarios assumed some level of reduction in energy demand, only the Tyndall Centre’s “Red” scenario came close to predicting the UK’s actual energy demand in 2022.
Everyday solutions overlooked
The report’s authors say this energy demand mismatch reveals that early scenarios often focused on untested technologies while overlooking practical and proven ways to reduce energy use, such as improving public transport, insulating homes, and reducing air travel.
They identify that these choices often then influenced policy debates, with optimism about new technologies often overshadowing everyday solutions, potentially limiting the scope of decarbonisation that was deemed possible by policymakers and researchers.
By comparing the 2005 scenarios of future energy with the energy changes that have happened, the authors reveal where foresight was limited, where assumptions proved over-ambitious, and where genuine transformation was underestimated.
‘Decarbonising the UK Revisited’ also reflects on two decades of Tyndall Centre energy research. Starting with the Royal Commission’s 60% carbon target by 2050, the Tyndall Centre helped to bring carbon budgets to the centre of UK climate policy and highlighted the need for action across all sectors of the economy, including aviation and shipping.
Time to deliver on climate ambition
Dr Gaurav Gharde, lead researcher and author, commented: “Our research underscores how energy scenarios underestimated the potential of the less exciting but proven solutions – things like energy efficiency, public transport, home insulation – while being too optimistic about how quickly seemingly promising technologies like fossil fuel with carbon capture and storage would actually materialise at scale.”
The authors argue that energy scenarios aiming to support an urgent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions must explore a wider range of options, with greater focus on proven solutions such as efficiency, lifestyle change, and equity. Doing so would open up more options for policymakers to deliver on their climate ambition, reduce reliance on unproven technologies, and align the UK’s energy pathways more closely with climate science.
Reflecting on these lessons, Professor Alice Larkin, co-author of the original 2005 and new 2025 report, added:
“Climate change is accelerating and already impacting on people’s everyday lives, yet our ambition has been failing to meet the scale of the challenge. With time running out, we need to better understand how to reconfigure existing technologies and behaviours, so we can transition more rapidly to a low-energy, low-carbon society.”
Critical decade to act
‘Decarbonising the UK’ is part of a wider project at the Tyndall Centre that explores how energy scenarios influence policy, and what lessons can be drawn halfway through this critical decade for climate action: the name and ambition of the conference at the University of East Anglia, 8-10 September 2025.
