Global shipping must act now to meet new climate targets, with 2030 being the critical deadline. To do this, we need to cut fuel use through efficiency improvements and smarter ship design.
In 2023, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) set a new climate change strategy for the shipping sector, which now includes greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2040, en route to zero emissions by around 2050.
However, progress towards meeting these goals is being blocked by an overly dominant narrative that focuses on fuels and longer-term (2050) targets: this focus is at odds with the new short-term targets, due to the long lead time for deployment of green fuels at scale, particularly given the slow turnover of shipping fleets.
Important research from the Tyndall Centre’s Simon Bullock and Alice Larkin explains why a change in emphasis towards short-term energy and emission reduction is critical if the sector is to play its part in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Rethink ship design and reduce emissions
In their paper in Climate Policy, Bullock and Larkin, based at the University of Manchester, alongside Jonathan Köhler at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, demonstrate that all shipping stakeholders should reassess their climate strategies against carbon budgets and cumulative emissions profiles, rather than 2050 net-zero goals.
The logic of cumulative emissions means that near-term emissions reductions are more important for the climate than similar levels of reductions in later years.
Recommendations for realising this shift include aligning the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) with the IMO’s new “strive” target, shifting the focus of organisational strategies towards reducing cumulative emissions, and rethinking ship design to optimse for ultra-efficiency, wind-assist propulsion and battery power. All of this will also complement the necessary ongoing work on alternative fuels.
- Read the full paper in Climate Policy: Beyond fuel: the case for a wider perspective on shipping and climate change
- Listen to our podcast: How do we reduce shipping emissions?
- Read our report from 2023: Climate targets for the shipping sector
