Simon Bullock

@article{35f380ec809d44b99e6e8acc685aed61,

title = {Beyond fuel: the case for a wider perspective on shipping and climate change},

author = {Simon Bullock and Alice Larkin and Jonathan Köhler},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2024.2447474},

issn = {1469-3062},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-03-13},

journal = {Climate Policy},

pages = {1–9},

publisher = {Taylor & Francis},

abstract = {In July 2023, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) set a new climate change strategy for the international shipping sector. Critically, this strategy now includes “checkpoint” and ‘strive’ greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2040, en route to zero emissions by around 2050. Recent analysis highlights that the IMO’s ‘strive’ targets are essential staging posts and the minimum level of ambition for the sector to play its part in meeting the Paris Climate goals. However, progress towards meeting the IMO’s 2030 and 2040 goals is being stymied by an overly dominant narrative discourse focused on fuels and longer term (2050) targets: this focus is at odds with the new short-term targets, due to the long lead time for deployment of green fuels at scale, particularly given the slow turn-over of shipping fleets. This article sets out why a change in emphasis towards short-term energy and emission reduction is critical if the sector is to play its part in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. It sets out why this is a no-regrets option, complementing necessary ongoing work on alternative fuels. Recommendations for realising this shift in emphasis include aligning the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) with the IMO’s new ’strive’ target, shifting the focus of organisational strategies towards reducing cumulative emissions, and rethinking ship design to optimise for ultra-efficiency, wind-assist propulsion and battery power.},

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@article{78d1abd4c24f4540a900a4a2948a0d93,

title = {Are the IMO’s new targets for international shipping compatible with the Paris Climate Agreement?},

author = {Simon Bullock and James Mason and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2023.2293081},

issn = {1469-3062},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Climate Policy},

volume = {24},

number = {7},

pages = {963–968},

publisher = {Taylor & Francis},

abstract = {International shipping is a major contributor to climate change. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has jurisdiction over the sector’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and in July 2023 agreed a revised climate change strategy, setting tightened targets for emissions reductions by 2030, 2040 and 2050. In this perspective article, we analyse the remaining carbon budgets available to the international shipping sector, to assess whether these new targets constitute a sufficient contribution to meeting the overarching Paris Agreement goal to limit global heating to 1.5°C. The new strategy sets both “indicative checkpoints” and more ambitious “strive” targets. Both represent a major advance over the previous strategy, however only the “strive” targets are compatible with the 1.5°C limit. The first “strive” target is for 30% reductions by 2030, just seven years away. To meet this goal, it is imperative that the IMO, nation states and the shipping industry act immediately to accelerate deployment of known technologies and operational practices that improve energy efficiency and cut CO2 emissions in the existing fleet.},

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@article{78d1abd4c24f4540a900a4a2948a0d93b,

title = {Are the IMO’s new targets for international shipping compatible with the Paris Climate Agreement?},

author = {Simon Bullock and James Mason and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2023.2293081},

issn = {1469-3062},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-12-22},

journal = {Climate Policy},

publisher = {Earthscan},

abstract = {International shipping is a major contributor to climate change. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has jurisdiction over the sector’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and in July 2023 agreed a revised climate change strategy, setting tightened targets for emissions reductions by 2030, 2040 and 2050. In this perspective article, we analyse the remaining carbon budgets available to the international shipping sector, to assess whether these new targets constitute a sufficient contribution to meeting the overarching Paris Agreement goal to limit global heating to 1.5°C. The new strategy sets both “indicative checkpoints” and more ambitious “strive” targets. Both represent a major advance over the previous strategy, however only the “strive” targets are compatible with the 1.5°C limit. The first “strive” target is for 30% reductions by 2030, just seven years away. To meet this goal, it is imperative that the IMO, nation states and the shipping industry act immediately to accelerate deployment of known technologies and operational practices that improve energy efficiency and cut CO2 emissions in the existing fleet.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{d486fdba8b0f4dd58764c4d359018cbc,

title = {Quantifying voyage optimisation with wind propulsion for short-term CO2 mitigation in shipping},

author = {James Mason and Alice Larkin and Simon Bullock and Nico Kolk and John F. Broderick},

doi = {10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.116065},

issn = {0029-8018},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-12-01},

journal = {Ocean Engineering},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{feee7beecf34446a95f977d1a44c25c9,

title = {Accelerating shipping decarbonisation: A case study on UK shore power},

author = {Simon Bullock and Claire Hoolohan and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17475},

issn = {2405-8440},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-07-01},

journal = {Heliyon},

volume = {9},

number = {7},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Shore power connects ships to land-side electricity grids, cutting fuel use in port to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution. It also enables the transition towards greater use of electric vessels. Despite these benefits, the global deployment of shore power is slow, particularly in countries such as the UK. This paper presents findings from a qualitative case study using two theoretical frameworks from the transitions literature to assess barriers to UK shore power deployment. The findings identify a need for capital funding and taxation policies, and illustrate that shipping's low status in the political hierarchy impedes implementation. Measures to strengthen interactions between shipping actors would help increase the political pressure required to implement policies supporting shore power and shipping more broadly. These changes in the governance and organisation of shipping are essential to deliver the near-term emission cuts necessary for aligning UK shipping emissions with the Paris Agreement.},

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@article{22733c3001db44e69fdc665c2e2b5129,

title = {Improving shore power project economics at the Port of Aberdeen},

author = {Simon Bullock and Eliott Higgins and James Crossan and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105625},

issn = {0308-597X},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-06-01},

journal = {Marine Policy},

volume = {152},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Shore power is one of just a few technologies available to the shipping sector that has potential to deliver carbon reductions this decade in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. Shore power connects ships to land-side electricity grids, reducing fossil fuel use while at berth in port and at the same time improving air quality. It is also an enabling technology for the future deployment of electric vessels, allowing battery recharge. Despite being a proven technology, global deployment has been slow, with the literature pointing to clear economic barriers to its uptake. These include high capital costs for ports, high taxes on land-side electricity and the global lack of taxation on ships’ fuel oils. Yet there is a gap in understanding around how to overcome these barriers. Here, a case-study of the Port of Aberdeen in Scotland is used to explore how the economic case for a shore-power system can be improved. A multi-criteria analysis and techno-economic assessment, coupled with port-user and supplier engagement, applicable to other port contexts, sheds light on how to create the much-needed acceleration of shore-power deployment. By building a collaborative approach between the port, ship operators and national government, project viability can be unlocked to more closely align the sector's future carbon pathway with the high ambitions laid out in Paris 2015.},

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@article{b3e3a88dbcd542e19fdfb44128e9081d,

title = {The urgent case for stronger climate targets for international shipping},

author = {Simon Bullock and James Mason and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2021.1991876},

issn = {1469-3062},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Climate Policy},

volume = {22},

number = {3},

pages = {301–309},

publisher = {Taylor & Francis},

abstract = {International shipping is overwhelmingly reliant on fossil fuels, with annual carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to a country the size of Germany. Actions to reduce its emissions are therefore an important element of global efforts to combat climate change. This article re-assesses the international shipping sector’s initial greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets against the Paris Agreement goals. The analysis is based upon the latest data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Maritime Organization (IMO) and uses the concept of carbon budgets to evaluate proportionate 1.5°C emissions pathways for the sector. The consequences of the resulting Paris-compliant pathways for shipping’s existing mitigation targets and strategy are discussed. The article concludes that significantly stronger short- and longer-term targets need to be set for the sector to be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s goals: 34% reductions on 2008 emissions levels by 2030, and zero emissions before 2050, compared with the sector’s existing target of a 50% cut in CO by 2050. Crucially, strengthening the target by the IMO’s strategy revision date of 2023 is imperative. The long asset lifetimes of ships and shipping infrastructure limit the speed of transition such that a delay of even a few years will dictate an untenable rate of decarbonization and increased risk of pushing the already challenging Paris goals out of reach},

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@article{70c6b2b22ada412481d16fa7e6991c48b,

title = {Shipping and the Paris climate agreement: a focus on committed emissions},

author = {Simon Bullock and James Mason and John Broderick and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1186/s42500-020-00015-2},

issn = {2524-4469},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-06-12},

journal = {BMC Energy},

volume = {2},

number = {5},

publisher = {BioMed Central Ltd},

abstract = {The concept of “committed emissions” allows us to understand what proportion of the Paris-constrained and rapidly diminishing global carbon dioxide (CO2) budget is potentially taken up by existing infrastructure. Here, this concept isapplied to international shipping, where long-lived assets increase the likelihood for high levels of committed emissions. To date, committed emissions studies have focussed predominantly on the power sector, or on global analyses in which shipping is a small element, with assumptions of asset lifetimes extrapolated from other transport modes. This study analyses new CO2, ship age and scrappage datasets covering the 11,000 ships included in theEuropean Union’s new emissions monitoring scheme (EU MRV), to deliver original insights on the speed at which new and existing shipping infrastructure must be decarbonised. These results, using ship-specific assumptions on assetlifetimes, show higher committed emissions for shipping than previous estimates based on asset lifetimes similar to the road transport sector. The estimated baseline committed emissions value is equivalent to 85–212% of the carbon budget for 1.5 °C that is available for these EU MRV ships, with the central case exceeding the available carbon budget. The sector does, however, have significant potential to reduce this committed emissions figure without premature scrappage through a combination of slow speeds, operational and technical efficiency measures, and the timely retrofitting of ships to use zero-carbon fuels. Here, it is shown that if mitigation measures are applied comprehensively through strong and rapid policy implementation in the 2020s, and if zero-carbon ships are deployed rapidly from 2030, it is still possible for the ships in the EU MRV system to stay within 1.5 °C carbon budgets. Alongside this, as there are wide variations between and within ship types, this new analysis sheds light on opportunities for decision-makers to tailor policy interventions to deliver more effective CO2 mitigation. Delays to appropriately stringent policy implementation would mean additional measures, such as premature scrappage or curbing the growth in shipping tonne-km, become necessary to meet the Paris climate goals.},

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@article{70c6b2b22ada412481d16fa7e6991c48,

title = {Shipping and the Paris climate agreement: a focus on committed emissions},

author = {Simon Bullock and James Mason and John Broderick and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1186/s42500-020-00015-2},

issn = {2524-4469},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-06-12},

journal = {BMC Energy},

volume = {2},

number = {5},

publisher = {BioMed Central Ltd},

abstract = {The concept of “committed emissions” allows us to understand what proportion of the Paris-constrained and rapidly diminishing global carbon dioxide (CO2) budget is potentially taken up by existing infrastructure. Here, this concept isapplied to international shipping, where long-lived assets increase the likelihood for high levels of committed emissions. To date, committed emissions studies have focussed predominantly on the power sector, or on global analyses in which shipping is a small element, with assumptions of asset lifetimes extrapolated from other transport modes. This study analyses new CO2, ship age and scrappage datasets covering the 11,000 ships included in theEuropean Union’s new emissions monitoring scheme (EU MRV), to deliver original insights on the speed at which new and existing shipping infrastructure must be decarbonised. These results, using ship-specific assumptions on assetlifetimes, show higher committed emissions for shipping than previous estimates based on asset lifetimes similar to the road transport sector. The estimated baseline committed emissions value is equivalent to 85–212% of the carbon budget for 1.5 °C that is available for these EU MRV ships, with the central case exceeding the available carbon budget. The sector does, however, have significant potential to reduce this committed emissions figure without premature scrappage through a combination of slow speeds, operational and technical efficiency measures, and the timely retrofitting of ships to use zero-carbon fuels. Here, it is shown that if mitigation measures are applied comprehensively through strong and rapid policy implementation in the 2020s, and if zero-carbon ships are deployed rapidly from 2030, it is still possible for the ships in the EU MRV system to stay within 1.5 °C carbon budgets. Alongside this, as there are wide variations between and within ship types, this new analysis sheds light on opportunities for decision-makers to tailor policy interventions to deliver more effective CO2 mitigation. Delays to appropriately stringent policy implementation would mean additional measures, such as premature scrappage or curbing the growth in shipping tonne-km, become necessary to meet the Paris climate goals.},

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@article{2266,

title = {Shipping and the Paris climate agreement: a focus on committed emission},

author = {Simon Bullock and A Larkin and J Broderick and J Mason},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-01-01},

journal = {BMC Energy},

abstract = {The concept of textquotedblleftcommitted emissionstextquotedblright allows us to understand what proportion of the Paris-constrained and rapidly diminishing global carbon dioxide (CO2) budget is potentially taken up by existing infrastructure. 



Here, this concept is applied to international shipping, where long-lived assets increase the likelihood for high levels of committed emissions. To date, committed emissions studies have focussed predominantly on the power sector, or on global analyses in which shipping is a small element, with assumptions of asset lifetimes extrapolated from other transport modes. 



This study analyses new CO2, ship age and scrappage datasets covering the 11,000 ships included in the European Uniontextquoterights new emissions monitoring scheme (EU MRV), to deliver original insights on the speed at which new and existing shipping infrastructure must be decarbonised. These results, using ship-specific assumptions on asset lifetimes, show higher committed emissions for shipping than previous estimates based on asset lifetimes similar to the road transport sector. 



The estimated baseline committed emissions value is equivalent to 85–212% of the carbon budget for 1.5 textdegreeC that is available for these EU MRV ships, with the central case exceeding the available carbon budget. The sector does, however, have significant potential to reduce this committed emissions figure without premature scrappage through a combination of slow speeds, operational and technical efficiency measures, and the timely retrofitting of ships to use zero-carbon fuels. Here, it is shown that if mitigation measures are applied comprehensively through strong and rapid policy implementation in the 2020s, and if zero-carbon ships are deployed rapidly from 2030, it is still possible for the ships in the EU MRV system to stay within 1.5 textdegreeC carbon budgets. 



Alongside this, as there are wide variations between and within ship types, this new analysis sheds light on opportunities for decision-makers to tailor policy interventions to deliver more effective CO2 mitigation. Delays to appropriately stringent policy implementation would mean additional measures, such as premature scrappage or curbing the growth in shipping tonne-km, become necessary to meet the Paris climate goals.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{b3e3a88dbcd542e19fdfb44128e9081db,

title = {The urgent case for stronger climate targets for international shipping},

author = {Simon Bullock and James Mason and Alice Larkin},

issn = {1469-3062},

journal = {Climate Policy},

publisher = {Earthscan},

abstract = {International shipping is overwhelmingly reliant on fossil fuels, with annual carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to a country the size of Germany. Actions to reduce its emissions are therefore an important element of global efforts to combat climate change. This article re-assesses the international shipping sector’s initial greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets against the Paris Agreement goals. The analysis is based upon the latest data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Maritime Organization (IMO) and uses the concept of carbon budgets to evaluate proportionate 1.5°C emissions pathways for the sector. The consequences of the resulting Paris-compliant pathways for shipping’s existing mitigation targets and strategy are discussed. The article concludes that significantly stronger short- and longer-term targets need to be set for the sector to be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s goals: 34% reductions on 2008 emissions levels by 2030, and zero emissions before 2050, compared with the sector’s existing target of a 50% cut in CO by 2050. Crucially, strengthening the target by the IMO’s strategy revision date of 2023 is imperative. The long asset lifetimes of ships and shipping infrastructure limit the speed of transition such that a delay of even a few years will dictate an untenable rate of decarbonization and increased risk of pushing the already challenging Paris goals out of reach},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{22733c3001db44e69fdc665c2e2b5129b,

title = {Improving shore power project economics at the Port of Aberdeen},

author = {Simon Bullock and Eliott Higgins and James Crossan and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105625},

issn = {0308-597X},

journal = {Marine Policy},

volume = {152},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Shore power is one of just a few technologies available to the shipping sector that has potential to deliver carbon reductions this decade in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. Shore power connects ships to land-side electricity grids, reducing fossil fuel use while at berth in port and at the same time improving air quality. It is also an enabling technology for the future deployment of electric vessels, allowing battery recharge. Despite being a proven technology, global deployment has been slow, with the literature pointing to clear economic barriers to its uptake. These include high capital costs for ports, high taxes on land-side electricity and the global lack of taxation on ships’ fuel oils. Yet there is a gap in understanding around how to overcome these barriers. Here, a case-study of the Port of Aberdeen in Scotland is used to explore how the economic case for a shore-power system can be improved. A multi-criteria analysis and techno-economic assessment, coupled with port-user and supplier engagement, applicable to other port contexts, sheds light on how to create the much-needed acceleration of shore-power deployment. By building a collaborative approach between the port, ship operators and national government, project viability can be unlocked to more closely align the sector's future carbon pathway with the high ambitions laid out in Paris 2015.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}