A major new project will aim to understand and predict the little-known ‘tipping points’ in marine ecosystems due to climate change, and their consequences and opportunities for the UK – particularly the fishing industry.
A project led by the University of East Anglia (UEA) – ‘Forecasting Tipping points In Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Responses’ (TiMBER) – has just been awarded a grant by the UK Government’s Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA): an R&D funding agency created to pursue research at the edge of what is scientifically and technologically possible and to unlock breakthroughs that benefit everyone.
This particular collaboration between UEA, Cefas, the National Oceanography Centre (NOC), the Institute of Computing for Climate Science (ICCS) at the University of Cambridge, and the Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS), is one of 27 international teams awarded funding under ARIA’s £81m Forecasting Tipping Points programme, a five-year effort to detect the earliest signs of climate tipping points – the key thresholds that, when crossed, lead to large, accelerating and practically irreversible changes in the climate system.
Tipping points: past and future
The consequences of climate tipping points could be devastating, potentially exposing half a billion people globally to annual flooding events, and triggering severe repercussions for our biodiversity, food security, agriculture, and more.
The project TiMBER will focus on the North Atlantic, which is known to be vulnerable to physical climate tipping points. Little is known about tipping points in marine ecosystems, but they would have profound socio-economic implications for the UK, especially for the fishing industry.
Tipping points in marine ecosystems have occurred in the past and are expected in the future, for example in response to industrialised cod overfishing in the North West Atlantic in the 1980s, or in response to changing climate conditions during the geological past.
Ocean Systems Model in development
Co-led by Programme Directors Gemma Bale and Sarah Bohndiek, ARIA’s Forecasting Tipping Points programme looks to create an early warning system capable of equipping us with the information, understanding and time we need to accelerate proactive climate adaptation and mitigation.
As part of this, and building on the UK’s strong modelling capability, TiMBER will develop an Ocean Systems Model and apply it, together with new and existing data from ARIA and AI methods, to assess the risks of tipping points in marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry.
It will identify early warning indicators for ‘sentinel’ marine species – those that are sensitive to climate or to changes in ecosystems – and recommend strategies for cost-effective monitoring networks and for adaptation.
TiMBER will also quantify the implications of tipping points on the ocean’s uptake of carbon emissions from human activities.
TiMBER’s lead R&D Creator Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science at UEA and member of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, says:
“Given the serious implications of tipping points, our research is both timely and necessary and we welcome the opportunity provided by this grant. By helping the UK anticipate, prepare for and respond to marine changes, TiMBER will support sustainable and resilient fisheries.
“Here we bring together a world-class team of researchers from different disciplines including experienced policy advisors, to develop the tools and understanding necessary to assess the risks of tipping points in marine ecosystems and their consequences and opportunities for the UK.
“Tackling the challenges of climate change requires novel approaches and thinking differently about what might be possible. This is what we aim to do through TiMBER.”
This article has been adapted from a news story on Sunday 16 February 2025 by UEA
