Friedlingstein, Pierre; O’Sullivan, Michael; Jones, Matthew W.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Gregor, Luke; Hauck, Judith; Quéré, Corinne Le; Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Olsen, Are; Peters, Glen P.; Peters, Wouter; Pongratz, Julia; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Sitch, Stephen; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Jackson, Robert B.; Alin, Simone R.; Alkama, Ramdane; Arneth, Almut; Arora, Vivek K.; Bates, Nicholas R.; Becker, Meike; Bellouin, Nicolas; Bittig, Henry C.; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Cronin, Margot; Evans, Wiley; Falk, Stefanie; Feely, Richard A.; Gasser, Thomas; Gehlen, Marion; Gkritzalis, Thanos; Gloege, Lucas; Grassi, Giacomo; Gruber, Nicolas; Gürses, Özgür; Harris, Ian; Hefner, Matthew; Houghton, Richard A.; Hurtt, George C.; Iida, Yosuke; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jain, Atul K.; Jersild, Annika; Kadono, Koji; Kato, Etsushi; Kennedy, Daniel; Goldewijk, Kees Klein; Knauer, Jürgen; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Landschützer, Peter; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lindsay, Keith; Liu, Junjie; Liu, Zhu; Marland, Gregg; Mayot, Nicolas; McGrath, Matthew J.; Metzl, Nicolas; Monacci, Natalie M.; Munro, David R.; Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro; Niwa, Yosuke; O’Brien, Kevin; Ono, Tsuneo; Palmer, Paul I.; Pan, Naiqing; Pierrot, Denis; Pocock, Katie; Poulter, Benjamin; Resplandy, Laure; Robertson, Eddy; Rödenbeck, Christian; Rodriguez, Carmen; Rosan, Thais M.; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Shutler, Jamie D.; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Steinhoff, Tobias; Sun, Qing; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Sweeney, Colm; Takao, Shintaro; Tanhua, Toste; Tans, Pieter P.; Tian, Xiangjun; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Tubiello, Francesco; Werf, Guido R.; Walker, Anthony P.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Whitehead, Chris; Wranne, Anna Willstrand; Wright, Rebecca; Yuan, Wenping; Yue, Chao; Yue, Xu; Zaehle, Sönke; Zeng, Jiye; Zheng, Bo
Global Carbon Budget 2022 Journal Article
In: Earth System Science Data, vol. 14, no. 11, pp. 4811–4900, 2022, ISSN: 1866-3508.
@article{d1031fa06d624b17b55160ab499fb863,
title = {Global Carbon Budget 2022},
author = {Pierre Friedlingstein and Michael O'Sullivan and Matthew W. Jones and Robbie M. Andrew and Luke Gregor and Judith Hauck and Corinne Le Quéré and Ingrid T. Luijkx and Are Olsen and Glen P. Peters and Wouter Peters and Julia Pongratz and Clemens Schwingshackl and Stephen Sitch and Josep G. Canadell and Philippe Ciais and Robert B. Jackson and Simone R. Alin and Ramdane Alkama and Almut Arneth and Vivek K. Arora and Nicholas R. Bates and Meike Becker and Nicolas Bellouin and Henry C. Bittig and Laurent Bopp and Frédéric Chevallier and Louise P. Chini and Margot Cronin and Wiley Evans and Stefanie Falk and Richard A. Feely and Thomas Gasser and Marion Gehlen and Thanos Gkritzalis and Lucas Gloege and Giacomo Grassi and Nicolas Gruber and Özgür Gürses and Ian Harris and Matthew Hefner and Richard A. Houghton and George C. Hurtt and Yosuke Iida and Tatiana Ilyina and Atul K. Jain and Annika Jersild and Koji Kadono and Etsushi Kato and Daniel Kennedy and Kees Klein Goldewijk and Jürgen Knauer and Jan Ivar Korsbakken and Peter Landschützer and Nathalie Lefèvre and Keith Lindsay and Junjie Liu and Zhu Liu and Gregg Marland and Nicolas Mayot and Matthew J. McGrath and Nicolas Metzl and Natalie M. Monacci and David R. Munro and Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka and Yosuke Niwa and Kevin O'Brien and Tsuneo Ono and Paul I. Palmer and Naiqing Pan and Denis Pierrot and Katie Pocock and Benjamin Poulter and Laure Resplandy and Eddy Robertson and Christian Rödenbeck and Carmen Rodriguez and Thais M. Rosan and Jörg Schwinger and Roland Séférian and Jamie D. Shutler and Ingunn Skjelvan and Tobias Steinhoff and Qing Sun and Adrienne J. Sutton and Colm Sweeney and Shintaro Takao and Toste Tanhua and Pieter P. Tans and Xiangjun Tian and Hanqin Tian and Bronte Tilbrook and Hiroyuki Tsujino and Francesco Tubiello and Guido R. Werf and Anthony P. Walker and Rik Wanninkhof and Chris Whitehead and Anna Willstrand Wranne and Rebecca Wright and Wenping Yuan and Chao Yue and Xu Yue and Sönke Zaehle and Jiye Zeng and Bo Zheng},
doi = {10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022},
issn = {1866-3508},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-11-11},
urldate = {2022-11-11},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
volume = {14},
number = {11},
pages = {4811–4900},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
abstract = {Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ.For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ.For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).