A new study in Carbon Management warns that extreme weather could disrupt Britain’s future electricity system, even with planned network upgrades, and highlights “demand flexibility” as a critical tool for resilience.
Researchers from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, based at the University of Manchester, have examined a range of 2050 Net Zero energy scenarios for Great Britain, assessing how climate risks might affect both electricity supply and demand technologies, as well as the resilience of transmission and distribution networks.
The study from Jaise Kuriakose, Eduardo A. Martínez Ceseña and Ruth Wood identifies specific seasonal periods that are most likely to stress the system, using windstorms as a case study. While planned network investments will improve overall capacity and resilience, they may not fully prevent power outages. The study explores potential solutions to these vulnerabilities.
Extreme weather and energy use
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, driving higher electricity demand. During summer heatwaves, electricity demand for cooling rises significantly. At the same time, wind speeds often drop during hot, calm periods, reducing output from wind turbines – a key component of the UK’s Net Zero energy supply. This combination of higher demand and lower supply creates a particularly vulnerable period for the electricity system.
Winter brings a different set of challenges. Severe windstorms, which may extend into autumn and spring, could damage critical network infrastructure. When these storms coincide with high demand for electricity from heating systems, the risk of outages increases. The researchers emphasise that this is not a theoretical scenario: the combination of physical stress on infrastructure and high demand is a realistic concern under several Net Zero pathways, making resilience measures essential.
The report acknowledges that improvements to transmission and distribution networks will strengthen Britain’s electricity system, enhancing capacity and overall resilience. However, even with planned upgrades, extreme weather events could still cause temporary shortfalls under certain scenarios.
Demand flexibility: Low-regret solution
Researchers highlight the need to plan for extreme events, not just average conditions, to design a system capable of withstanding climate extremes.
One of the most important solutions put forward is “demand flexibility” – the ability to shift or reduce electricity use during periods of peak demand or constrained supply. The study describes it as a vital, “low-regret” approach: it does not eliminate all risk but has strong potential to reduce the likelihood of outages.
To implement demand flexibility effectively, the country requires major policy and regulatory reforms. Social and technical barriers must be addressed, and consumers will need support and incentives to change how and when they use electricity, particularly for heating and cooling systems that drive seasonal demand peaks.
Without these measures, even a fully decarbonised electricity system could remain vulnerable to extreme weather, leaving Britain exposed to potential power disruptions.
- Read the full study in Carbon Management: “Assessing climate risks to Net Zero power system in Great Britain”
- Learn more about our research theme, ‘Reaching zero emissions’
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