Future climate change is expected to drive a major increase in cooling demand in UK social housing, highlighting the need for climate-adapted housing design to reduce energy use, support residents’ wellbeing, and ease pressure on energy infrastructure.
A study carried out by researchers at the University of Manchester has found that future climate change will see a clear shift towards summer cooling requirements, with implications for grid capacity, occupant wellbeing, and energy affordability.
The research, published in MDPI, aims to understand how the UK’s designs for social housing need to change, as future climate change alters the demand for heating and cooling in the summer and winter months, and how we might approach this change in energy demands, in order to mitigate the environmental effects.
Need for new homes to better meet cooling demands
In 2019, heating accounted for around 45 per cent of total energy consumption. The study argues that in order to reduce this consumption, a comprehensive understanding of homes, and how climate change will affect their energy performance in the future, is needed.
The study records a likely substantial increase in cooling demand projected for 2050 and 2080, suggesting that cooling demand will rise in 2050 by 138.69 per cent.
Researchers suggest that by using the correct weather files (typical-year data that represents long-term historical data used to test housing designs) to test housing designs, which accurately represent the effects of future climate change, we can build homes which are better suited to the increased need for cooling requirements.
By building homes in such a manner, we could reduce the amount of energy used to meet demands for heating and cooling of housing, and as such reduce our consumption of fossil fuels to do so.
Adaptive designs for social housing residents
Dr Claire Brown, of The University of Manchester, said of the research:
“The implications of climate change for the residential energy system are far reaching. These emerging stresses challenge the viability of a ‘business-as-usual’ approach to housing provision and highlight the need for adaptive, forward-looking design and policy interventions to prevent future harm to residents of social housing in the UK and beyond.”
This article is adapted from a news story originally published on Tuesday 16 June 2026 by the University of Manchester
Related links
- Read the MDPI journal article: “Designing Climate-Resilient Social Housing: Why Weather File Choice Matters for Future Energy Demand” by by Claire Brown and Andrew Welfle
- Check out our “Tyndall Spotlight” on the research work of Claire Brown
- Read up on our research theme, “Catalysing adaptation and resilience”
