Robert Nicholls

@article{7e97afd2c1d64eff83fd3e1f95692558,

title = {Framing resilience to manage complex environmental systems},

author = {Ian Townend and Jon French and Robert Nicholls},

doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2024.09.008},

issn = {1479-2605},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-11-15},

journal = {Planet Earth},

volume = {7},

number = {11},

pages = {1941–1952},

publisher = {Natural Environment Research Council},

abstract = {The significant challenges of managing complex environmental systems in a changing world are widely acknowledged. There are widespread calls for transformation in our approach and for the adoption of more holistic perspectives. In this paper, we explore the concept of “resilience” within a system dynamics framework as an attractive and appropriate conceptual approach for this problem. We link this to the evaluation and selection of adaptation pathways and transitions within the constraints of a “safe operating space,” recognizing planetary boundaries as well as operational and sectoral constraints. We discuss the relative merits of using quantitative modeling to explore the evolution of individual system state functions versus the use of suites of measures that aim to characterize and track the overall resilience of complex environmental systems. Using national and global examples, we demonstrate how such a resilience-based approach can be made operational, which is a fundamental requirement for wider adoption.},

note = {Funding Information: This work is a follow-on from a project supported by the Strategic Priorities Fund, UK Climate Resilience Programme, through a UK Research & Innovation award (NE/S016651/1).},

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@article{b4d16aa1dcdc4da9b9200d19aaf231f0,

title = {Delta sustainability from the Holocene to the Anthropocene and envisioning the future},

author = {Edward Anthony and Jaia Syvitski and Florin Zăinescu and Robert J. Nicholls and Kim M. Cohen and Nick Marriner and Yoshiki Saito and John Day and Philip S. J. Minderhoud and Alessandro Amorosi and Zhongyuan Chen and Christophe Morhange and Toru Tamura and Alfred Vespremeanu-Stroe and Manon Besset and François Sabatier and David Kaniewski and Vittorio Maselli},

doi = {10.1038/s41893-024-01426-3},

issn = {2398-9629},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-10-01},

journal = {Nature Sustainability},

volume = {7},

number = {10},

pages = {1235–1246},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {River deltas offer numerous ecosystem services and host an estimated global population of 350 million to more than 500 million inhabitants in over 100 countries. To maintain their sustainability into the future, deltas need to withstand sea-level rise from global warming, but human pressures and diminishing sediment supplies are exacerbating their vulnerability. In this Review, we show how deltas have served as environmental incubators for societal development over the past 7,000 years, and how this tightly interlocked relationship now poses challenges to deltas globally. Without climate stabilization, the sustainability of populous low-to-mid-latitude deltas will be difficult to maintain, probably terminating the delta–human relationship that we know today.},

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@article{b9bac3e45cd14be8b27a224a7ca02aa4,

title = {Assessing current coastal subsidence at continental scale: Insights from Europe using the European Ground Motion Service},

author = {Rémi Thiéblemont and Gonéri Le Cozannet and Robert J. Nicholls and Jérémy Rohmer and Guy Wöppelmann and Daniel Raucoules and Marcello Michele and Alexandra Toimil and Daniel Lincke},

doi = {10.1029/2024EF004523},

issn = {2328-4277},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-08-01},

journal = {Earths Future},

volume = {12},

number = {8},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Beside climate-change-induced sea-level rise (SLR), land subsidence can strongly amplify coastal risk in flood-prone areas. Mapping and quantifying contemporary vertical land motion (VLM) at continental scales has long been a challenge due to the absence of gridded observational products covering these large domains. Here, we fill this gap by using the new European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) to assess the current state of coastal VLM in Europe. First, we compare the InSAR-based EGMS Ortho (Level 3) with nearby global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) vertical velocity estimates and show that the geodetic reference frame used to calibrate EGMS strongly influences coastal vertical land velocity estimates at the millimeter per year level and this needs to be considered with caution. After adjusting the EGMS vertical velocity estimates to a more updated and accurate International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2014), we performed an assessment of VLM in European low elevation coastal flood plains (CFPs). We find that nearly half of the European CFP area is, on average, subsiding at a rate faster than 1 mm/yr. More importantly, we find that urban areas and populations located in the CFP experience a near −1 mm/yr VLM on average (excluding the uplifting Fennoscandia region). For harbors, the average VLM is even larger and increases to −1.5 mm/yr on average. This demonstrates the widespread importance of continental-scale assessments based on InSAR and GNSS to better identify areas at higher risk from relative SLR due to coastal subsidence.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: EGMS Ortho products first release (2015–2021) is obtained from European Environment Agency (2023). The ULR-repro3 GNSS products are available from Gravelle et al. (2022). The GNSS NGL14 solution (Blewitt et al., 2018) used in this study is distributed by SONEL at the landing page (https://www.sonel.org/-Vertical-land-movements-.html?lang=en#id498). EUREF EPN D2150 densification GNSS solution was obtained from EUREF (https://epnd.sgo-penc.hu/downloads/). The results from the GIA model were downloaded from Frederikse, Caron, and Landerer (2019). CORINE Land Cover raster is obtained from CLC raster is obtained from European Environment Agency (2020). European population gridded data set from 2021 is obtained from Eurostat (2023). The Copernicus Global Digital Elevation Model at 30-m resolution used to define European coastal flood plains from European Space Agency, Sinergise (2021). Vertical land motion estimates in European coastal flood plains are provided in Thiéblemont (2024). Funding information: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme. Grant Number: 101003598; HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council. Grant Number: 101075609},

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@article{46fda79ac89e41b2b5b32274c1b60237,

title = {Climate change science is evolving toward adaptation and mitigation solutions},

author = {Danial Khojasteh and Milad Haghani and Abbas Shamsipour and Clara C. Zwack and William Glamore and Robert J. Nicholls and Matthew H. England},

doi = {10.1002/wcc.884},

issn = {1757-7780},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-07-01},

journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},

volume = {15},

number = {4},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Synthesizing the extensive and ever-growing climate change literature is becoming increasingly challenging using conventional review processes, yet is crucial to understand key trends, including knowledge and policy related gaps, managing widespread impacts, and prioritizing future efforts. Here, we employ a systematic approach to interrogate ~130,000 international peer-reviewed climate change articles published between 1990 and 2021. We examine the time–space evolution of research topics and international collaborations, providing insights into broad scale climate change research themes, how they are developed and/or are interconnected. Our analyses indicate that significant thematic adjustments have occurred over the past three decades. Whilst all major areas of climate research have grown in output metrics, there has been a relative shift from understanding the physical science basis toward evaluating climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. There has also been a significant internationalization of climate research with the ratio of international over domestic research increasing from 0.05 in 1990 to nearly 0.60 in 2021. These findings reveal a growing need for collective and coupled adaptation-mitigation actions to address climate change. The repeatable method and overall results presented herein can help to complement existing large-scale literature assessments, such as future IPCC reports.},

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@article{c6e7679ae5de425d970a5221dec908f4,

title = {Tracking the spatial footprints of extreme storm surges around the coastline of the UK and Ireland},

author = {Paula Camus and Ivan D. Haigh and Niall Quinn and Thomas Wahl and Thomas Benson and Ben Gouldby and Ahmed A. Nasr and Md Mamunur Rashid and Alejandra R. Enríquez and Stephen E. Darby and Robert J. Nicholls and Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo},

doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2024.100662},

issn = {2212-0947},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-06-01},

journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},

volume = {44},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Storm surges are the most important driver of flooding in many coastal areas. Understanding the spatial extent of storm surge events has important financial and practical implications for flood risk management, reinsurance, infrastructure reliability and emergency response. In this paper, we apply a new tracking algorithm to a high-resolution surge hindcast (CODEC, 1980–2017) to characterize the spatial dependence and temporal evolution of extreme surge events along the coastline of the UK and Ireland. We quantify the severity of each spatial event based on its footprint extremity to select and rank the collection of events. Several surge footprint types are obtained based on the most impacted coastal stretch from each particular event, and these are linked to the driving storm tracks. Using the collection of the extreme surge events, we assess the spatial distribution and interannual variability of the duration, size, severity, and type. We find that the northeast coastline is most impacted by the longest and largest storm surge events, while the English Channel experiences the shortest and smallest storm surge events. The interannual variability indicates that the winter seasons of 1989-90 and 2013–14 were the most serious in terms of the number of events and their severity, based on the return period along the affected coastlines. The most extreme surge event and the highest number of events occurred in the winter season 1989–90, while the proportion of events with larger severities was higher during the winter season 2013–14. This new spatial analysis approach of surge extremes allows us to distinguish several categories of spatial footprints of events around the UK/Ireland coast and link these to distinct storm tracks. The spatial dependence structures detected can improve multivariate statistical methods which are crucial inputs to coastal flooding assessments.},

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@article{33a087d6ab27459a9bfed1e9b416d370,

title = {Earth’s sinking surface: China’s major cities show considerable subsidence from human activities},

author = {Robert J. Nicholls and Manoochehr Shirzaei},

doi = {10.1126/science.ado9986},

issn = {0036-8075},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-04-19},

journal = {Science},

volume = {384},

number = {6693},

pages = {268–269},

publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},

note = {Funding Information: R.J.N. is funded by PROTECT, CoCliCo, under European Unionu2019s Horizon 2020 grants 869304 and 101003598. M.S. is supported by the US National Science Foundation.},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{033df60862ec42a7860006407cd36eac,

title = {Practitioner needs to adapt to Sea-Level Rise: Distilling information from global workshops},

author = {Daniella Hirschfeld and Ray Boyle and Robert J. Nicholls and David Behar and Miguel Esteban and Jochen Hinkel and Gordon Smith and David J. Hanslow},

doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100452},

issn = {2405-8807},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-04-01},

journal = {Climate Services},

volume = {34},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Climate-induced sea-level rise threatens the world’s coastal populations, critical infrastructure, and ecosystems. The science of sea-level rise (SLR) has developed to inform understanding of global climate mitigation and adaptation challenges, but there is much less engagement with practitioners to discern their climate services needs and support the development of adaptation planning and action on the ground. In addition, adaptation planning and implementation processes for SLR are relatively new and practitioners developing leading practices are seeking interaction with their peers and the SLR science community. To address these gaps, we co-produced online global workshops with sixty-nine practitioners from twenty-six countries. These workshops aimed to increase understanding of the state of SLR adaptation planning practice worldwide, gather information on practitioners' existing knowledge and service needs to advance their adaptation efforts, and facilitate exchange between practitioners engaged with coastal adaptation and the SLR science community. The workshops uncovered commonalities across contexts and identified consistent needs from scientists and other technical experts amongst the practitioner community. These needs include generating more localized SLR impact data, understanding of compound risk, creating data timelines for decision making, and developing clarity about uncertainties and probabilities. We also observed important differences between urban and rural locations and between places with different economic resources. To meet their needs, practitioners identified three crucial next steps: 1) Develop more online engagement opportunities, 2) Establish a global practitioner community of practice, and 3) Scale and improve the provision of climate services.},

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@article{f72db45b1e134e4182daf917e7afc303,

title = {Disappearing cities on US coasts},

author = {Leonard O. Ohenhen and Manoochehr Shirzaei and Chandrakanta Ojha and Sonam F. Sherpa and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.1038/s41586-024-07038-3},

issn = {0028-0836},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-03-07},

journal = {Nature},

volume = {627},

number = {8002},

pages = {108–115},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {The sea level along the US coastlines is projected to rise by 0.25–0.3 m by 2050, increasing the probability of more destructive flooding and inundation in major cities1,2,3. However, these impacts may be exacerbated by coastal subsidence—the sinking of coastal land areas4—a factor that is often underrepresented in coastal-management policies and long-term urban planning2,5. In this study, we combine high-resolution vertical land motion (that is, raising or lowering of land) and elevation datasets with projections of sea-level rise to quantify the potential inundated areas in 32 major US coastal cities. Here we show that, even when considering the current coastal-defence structures, further land area of between 1,006 and 1,389 km2 is threatened by relative sea-level rise by 2050, posing a threat to a population of 55,000–273,000 people and 31,000–171,000 properties. Our analysis shows that not accounting for spatially variable land subsidence within the cities may lead to inaccurate projections of expected exposure. These potential consequences show the scale of the adaptation challenge, which is not appreciated in most US coastal cities.},

note = {Funding Information: L.O.O. is supported by a U.S. Geological Survey grant. M.S. is supported by U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation grants.},

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@article{ffbab5daac5c49ae852d4644766e4399,

title = {Sea-level rise induced change in exposure of low-lying coastal land: implications for coastal conservation strategies},

author = {Rémi Thiéblemont and Gonéri Cozannet and Jérémy Rohmer and Adrien Privat and Romain Guidez and Caterina Negulescu and Xénia Philippenko and Arjen Luijendijk and Floris Calkoen and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.1007/s44218-024-00041-1},

issn = {2561-4150},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-02-27},

journal = {Anthropocene Coasts},

volume = {7},

publisher = {Canadian Science Publishing},

abstract = {Coastal erosion and flooding are projected to increase during the 21st century due to sea-level rise (SLR). To prevent adverse impacts of unmanaged coastal development, national organizations can apply a land protection policy, which consists of acquiring coastal land to avoid further development. Yet, these reserved areas remain exposed to flooding and erosion enhanced by SLR. Here, we quantify the exposure of the coastal land heritage portfolio of the French Conservatoire du littoral (Cdl). We find that 30% (~40%) of the Cdl lands owned (projected to be owned) are located below the contemporary highest tide level. Nearly 10% additional surface exposure is projected by 2100 under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) and 2150 for the moderate scenario (SSP2-4.5). The increase in exposure is largest along the West Mediterranean coast of France. We also find that Cdl land exposure increases more rapidly for SLR in the range of 0–1 m than for SLR in the range 2–4 m. Thus, near-future uncertainty on SLR has the largest impact on Cdl land exposure evolution and related land acquisition planning. Concerning erosion, we find that nearly 1% of Cdl land could be lost in 2100 if observed historical trends continue. Adding the SLR effect could lead to more than 3% land loss. Our study confirms previous findings that Cdl needs to consider land losses due to SLR in its land acquisition strategy and start acquiring land farther from the coast.},

note = {Funding information: The research leading to these results received funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 869304 (H2020-Protect).},

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@article{f623d496c5c9456296e4c934416b4cb5,

title = {A comparative assessment of accommodation strategies based on elevated buildings for coastal adaptation},

author = {Ulysse Pasquier and Robert J. Nicholls and Gonéri Le Cozannet and Paul Sayers},

doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2024.100655},

issn = {2212-0963},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

journal = {Climate Risk Management},

volume = {46},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Elevating parts or the entirety of the structure of buildings in exposed coastal areas can be an effective way of managing the growing risks associated with climate change and sea level rise. While these accommodation measures are well known, there is little to no research on their role in coastal adaptation policy in Europe or on accommodation taking place at all. A systematic review of grey literature was carried out in metropolitan France, the UK and Ireland to assess the current state of structural accommodation. The analysis shows that although measures such as the raising of floor levels of new developments are common practice as part of property-level resilience and flood risk management on the coasts of the three studied countries, accommodation remains driven by local spatial planning and poorly integrated in overarching adaptation policies. Accommodation is found to be unevenly distributed along the assessed coasts and in many locations is happening in protected or sheltered locations to manage residual risk. Comparisons with the experience from the US – where elevated buildings have been an established strategy for over 50 years – suggest that accommodation could be enhanced by providing guidelines that better account for coastal processes such as the impacts of waves, as well as by promoting financial incentives through subsidies or insurance schemes. National coastal adaptation policies are rapidly evolving in Europe and could benefit from a better understanding of the advantages and limitations of accommodation by elevating buildings.},

note = {Acknowledgements: This research was conducted as part of the Coastal Climate Core Services (CoCliCo) Project. CoCliCo project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101003598. The extended coastal floodplain dataset was produced as part of the CoCliCo project and provided by Daniel Lincke and Jochen Hinkel (Global Climate Forum). The authors would also like to acknowledge Céline Perherin (CEREMA) for providing constructive comments and suggestions based on a draft version of this manuscript.},

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@article{3f6f5df7ccf841b69348deb823585ce4,

title = {Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India},

author = {Sourav Samanta and Sugata Hazra and Jon R. French and Robert J. Nicholls and Partho P. Mondal},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166624},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-12-10},

urldate = {2023-08-27},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {903},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {In this paper we conduct exploratory simulations of the possible evolution of the Indian Sundarbans mangroves to 2100 under a range of future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, considering the effects of both inundation and shoreline erosion. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to simulate habitat transitions due to inundation and these outputs are combined with an empirical model of SLR-driven shoreline erosion. A set of plausible climate-induced SLR scenarios are considered, together with delta subsidence and constrained vertical sediment accretion. Significant mangrove decline is found in all cases: the greater the rise in sea level the greater the losses. By the end of the century, the Indian Sundarbans mangroves could lose between 42 % and 80 % of their current area if current management is continued. Managed realignment could offset these losses but at the expense of productive land and the migration of the human population.},

note = {Funding information: This research was funded under the “Towards a Sustainable Earth: Environment-human systems and the UN Global Goals” (TaSE) program in the project “Opportunities and trade-offs between the SDGs for food, welfare and the environment in deltas”. Funding was provided by NERC Grant NE/S012478/1, Formas Grant 2019-00045, and the UKIERI-DBT (Grant BT/IN/TaSE/70/SH/2018-19) under UK-India Education Research Initiative. RN has been supported by funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 101037097 (REST-COAST project).},

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@article{a7401dc33a35445f9c9ce323f93ccbfa,

title = {Illustrative multi-centennial projections of global mean sea-level rise and their application},

author = {Fiona E. Turner and Victor Malagon Santos and Tamsin L. Edwards and Aimée B. A. Slangen and Robert J. Nicholls and Gonéri Le Cozannet and James O’Neill and Mira Adhikari},

doi = {10.1029/2023EF003550},

issn = {2328-4277},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-12-01},

journal = {Earths Future},

volume = {11},

number = {12},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {We produce projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea-level rise on these long timescales, with [5, 95]% intervals of [0.3, 4.3]m and [1.0, 7.6]m under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 respectively, and a difference in the 95% quantile of 1.6 m at 2300 and 3.3 m at 2500 for the two scenarios. The largest and most uncertain component is the Antarctic ice sheet, projected to contribute 5%–95% intervals of [−0.1, 2.3]m by 2500 under SSP1-2.6 and [0.0, 3.8]m under SSP2-4.5. We discuss how the simple statistical extensions used here could be replaced with more physically based methods for more robust predictions. We show that, despite their uncertainties, current multi-centennial projections combined into multi-study projections as presented here can be used to avoid future “lock-ins” in terms of risk and adaptation needs to sea-level rise.},

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@article{f993b5a7870e4665bb27323a3577ca18,

title = {Status of global coastal adaptation},

author = {Alexandre K. Magnan and Robert Bell and Virginie K. E. Duvat and James D. Ford and Matthias Garschagen and Marjolijn Haasnoot and Carmen Lacambra and Iñigo J. Losada and Katharine J. Mach and Mélinda Noblet and Devanathan Parthasaranthy and Marcello Sano and Katharine Vincent and Ariadna Anisimov and Susan Hanson and Alexandra Malmström and Robert J. Nicholls and Gundula Winter},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-023-01834-x},

issn = {1758-678X},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-11-01},

urldate = {2023-11-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {13},

number = {11},

pages = {1213–1221},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {The state of progress towards climate adaptation is currently unclear. Here we apply a structured expert judgement to assess multiple dimensions shaping adaptation (equally weighted): risk knowledge, planning, action, capacities, evidence on risk reduction, long-term pathway strategies. We apply this approach to 61 local coastal case studies clustered into four urban and rural archetypes to develop a locally informed perspective on the state of global coastal adaptation. We show with medium confidence that today’s global coastal adaptation is halfway to the full adaptation potential. Urban archetypes generally score higher than rural ones (with a wide spread of local situations), adaptation efforts are unbalanced across the assessment dimensions and strategizing for long-term pathways remains limited. The results provide a multi-dimensional and locally grounded assessment of global coastal adaptation and lay new foundations for international climate negotiations by showing that there is room to refine global adaptation targets and identify priorities transcending development levels.},

note = {Acknowledgments: The authors thank the French Development Agency for its support to the GAP-Track project. A.K.M. received funding from the ‘Investissements d’avenir ’programme supported by the French National Research Agency (ANR; grant ANR-349 10-LABX-14-01). V.K.E.D. and A.K.M. received funding from the French National Research Agency (STORISK projects, grant ANR- 15-CE03-0003, and FUTURISKS project, grant ANR-22-POCE-0002) projects). I.J.L. acknowledges financial support from the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (COASTALfutures project, grant PID2021-126506OB-100, funding from MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/FEDER UE). The authors also thank the local and national public authorities of most of the case studies for logistical support and information provision.},

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@article{4717830e7fee49498fd3209a1fd3fe55,

title = {Transitions in modes of coastal adaptation: Addressing blight, engagement and sustainability},

author = {Sally Brown and Emma L. Tompkins and Natalie Suckall and Jon French and Ivan D. Haigh and Eli Lazarus and Robert J. Nicholls and Edmund Penning-Rowsell and Charlie E. L. Thompson and Ian Townend and Sien Plank},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2023.1153134},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-09-01},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {10},

publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},

abstract = {Coastal defences have long provided protection from erosion and flooding to cities, towns and villages. In many parts of the world, continued defence is being questioned due to both environmental, sustainability and economic considerations. This is exemplified in England and Wales, where strategic Shoreline Management Plans envisage realignment of many protected coasts, often with low population densities, over the coming decades. The policy transition from protection to realignment is often resisted by affected communities and can have high political costs. Whilst some preparations for such transitions have been made, the communities affected are often not fully aware of the implications of policy change, and this brings the potential for blight. In this paper, we investigate the challenges of implementing transitions in coastal policy within England and Wales. The analysis is based on data obtained from three workshops held in 2019 that were attended by council members, engineers, planners, scientists and other relevant professionals. Five conditions are found to promote contention: (i) policy actors with competing priorities and different decision making time frames (immediate to decadal to a century); (ii) divergence between regulations and ad hoc political decisions (e.g. in relation to the demand for new housing); (iii) limited or non-existent funding to support policy transition; (iv) community expectation that protection is forever; and (v) a disconnection between people and ongoing coastal change. Our research indicates that transitions can be better supported through: (1) integrated multi-scalar preparedness for coastal change; (2) an accessible evidence base and future vision to nurture political confidence in adaptation; and (3) defined, time-bound and accessible diverse funding streams to achieve transitions. Critically, these generic actions need to be embedded within the local political and planning system to facilitate transition to more sustainable coasts and their communities.},

note = {Funding information: Research was undertaken at the University of Southampton ethics number 48389. Funding was provided by the Natural Environment Research Council grant NE/S016651/1 ‘Coastal resilience in the face of sea-level rise: making the most of natural systems’, and time in-kind from Bournemouth University (SB) and the University of Leeds (NS).},

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@article{23f9aff09da145959e9f2e9dac3db2fd,

title = {Adaptation to multi-meter sea-level rise should start now},

author = {Gonéri Le Cozannet and Robert J. Nicholls and Gael Durand and Aimée B. A. Slangen and Daniel Lincke and Anne Chapuis},

doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/acef3f},

issn = {1748-9326},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-09-01},

urldate = {2023-09-01},

journal = {Environmental Research Letters},

volume = {18},

number = {9},

publisher = {IOP Publishing Ltd},

abstract = {Sea-level rise will fundamentally change coastal zones worldwide (Cooley et al 2022). A global two meters rise of sea level will be exceeded sooner or later within a time window ranging from one century to as long as two millennia, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions and polar ice-sheet melting (Fox-Kemper et al 2021). Here, we show that in addition to climate mitigation to slow this rise, adaptation to two meters of sea-level rise should start now. This involves changing our mindset to define a strategic vision for these threatened coastal areas and identify realistic pathways to achieve this vision. This can reduce damages, losses, and lock-ins in the future, identify problems before they become critical and exploit opportunities if they emerge. To meet this challenge, it is essential that coastal adaptation becomes core to coastal development, especially for long-lived critical infrastructure. Coastal adaptation will be an ongoing process for many decades and centuries, requiring the support of climate services, which make the links between science, policy and adaptation practice.},

note = {Funding information: This research is funded by PROTECT and CoCliCo. These Projects have received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grants Agreements Nos. 869304 and 101003598; PROTECT contribution number 72. Data availability statement: Data shown in figure 1 can be accessed through the NASA portal: https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool. All data that support the findings of this study are included within the article.},

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tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{b8463fd874ff4bd1b39bfe3304715d47,

title = {Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region},

author = {Melissa Wood and Ivan D. Haigh and Quan Quan Le and Hung Nghia Nguyen and Hoang Ba Tran and Stephen E. Darby and Robert Marsh and Nikolaos Skliris and Joël J. -M. Hirschi and Robert J. Nicholls and Nadia Bloemendaal},

doi = {10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023},

issn = {1561-8633},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-07-13},

journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {23},

number = {7},

pages = {2475–2504},

abstract = {Coastal floods, driven by extreme sea levels, are one of the most dangerous natural hazards. The people at highest risk are those living in low-lying coastal areas exposed to tropical-cyclone-forced storm surges. Here we apply a novel modelling framework to estimate past and/or present and future storm-surge-level and extreme-sea-level probabilities along the coastlines of southern China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia. A regional hydrodynamic model is configured to simulate 10 000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone activity, representative of a past/present (1980–2017) and high-emission-scenario future (2015–2050) period. Results show that extreme storm surges, and therefore total water levels, will increase substantially in the coming decades, driven by an increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones. Storm surges along the southern Chinese and northern and southern Vietnamese coastlines increase by up to 1 m, significantly larger than expected changes in mean sea-level rise over the same period. The length of coastline that is presently exposed to storm surge levels of 2.5 m or greater will more than double by 2050. Sections of Cambodian, Thai, and Malaysian coastlines are projected to experience storm surges (at higher return periods) in the future, not previously seen, due to a southward shift in tropical cyclone tracks. Given these findings, coastal flood management and adaptation in these areas should be reviewed for their resilience against future extreme sea levels.},

note = {Financial information: This work was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant no. NE/S003150/1) and, in Vietnam, by the National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (NAFOSTED-RCUK) fund and the Ministry of Science and Technology (Mekong River project, code DTDL-48/18). Nadia Bloemendaal was funded by a VICI grant from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research 569 (NWO grant no. 453-13-006) and the ERC Advanced Grant (COASTMOVE (grant no. 884442)).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ee10c45841574a16ad7450e1c780f7bf,

title = {Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation},

author = {Daniella Hirschfeld and David Behar and Robert J. Nicholls and Niamh Cahill and Thomas James and Benjamin P. Horton and Michelle E. Portman and Rob Bell and Matthew Campo and Miguel Esteban and Bronwyn Goble and Munsur Rahman and Kwasi Appeaning Addo and Faiz Ahmed Chundeli and Monique Aunger and Orly Babitsky and Anders Beal and Ray Boyle and Jiayi Fang and Amir Gohar and Susan Hanson and Saul Karamesines and MJ Kim and Hilary Lohmann and Kathy McInnes and Nobuo Mimura and Doug Ramsay and Landis Wenger and Hiromune Yokoki},

doi = {10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x},

issn = {2662-4435},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-04-03},

journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},

volume = {4},

publisher = {Nature Research},

abstract = {Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.},

note = {Acknowledgements: Many people across the world provided critical information to our questionnaire. We would like to thank them for taking time out of their busy schedules to support this research. D.H. was funded by Utah State University’s Office of Research. D.B. was funded by the people of the City and County of San Francisco and the SFPUC to participate in this research. R.J.N. was supported by the PROTECT Project. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 54. NC’s work was conducted with the financial support of Science Foundation Ireland and co-funded by Geological Survey Ireland under grant number 20/FFP-P/8610. For T.J., this is a contribution of the Climate Change Geoscience Program of Natural Resources Canada. BPH is supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 499. R.G.B. was supported by the NZ SeaRise Program funded by New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment Contract to the Research Trust at Victoria University (Contract ID - RTVU1705). M.C. acknowledges support from the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program. For M.E., the present work was performed as a part of activities of Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University. K.M. was supported by the Climate Systems Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental science Program (NESP) and CSIRO. We would like to recognize Muhammad Hadi Ikhsan for his work on the figures.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{e78b8e9870194efb8768193f3ed04e38,

title = {Pathways to sustain atolls under rising sea levels through land claim and island raising},

author = {Sally Brown and Robert J. Nicholls and Alan Bloodworth and Oliver Bragg and Audrey Clauss and Stuart Field and Laura Gibbons and Milda Pladaite and Malcolm Szuplewski and James Watling and Ali Shareef and Zammath Khaleel},

doi = {10.1088/2752-5295/acb4b3},

issn = {2752-5295},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-02-16},

journal = {Environmental Research: Climate},

volume = {2},

number = {1},

publisher = {IOP Publishing Ltd},

abstract = {Low-lying atoll nations (e.g., the Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Marshall Islands) are highly vulnerable to climate change, especially sea-level rise. Stringent climate change mitigation will slow but not stop sea-level rise, which will continue for centuries, mandating additional long-term adaptation. At the same time, urbanisation is concentrating population in a few centres, especially around capital islands which creates additional pressure as most atoll nations are ‘land-poor’. This paper demonstrates how structural adaptation using land claim and island raising can be utilised within an adaptation pathway approach to sustain enough islands and land area above rising sea levels to satisfy societal and economic needs over multiple centuries. This approach is illustrated using the Maldives, especially around the capital and its environs (Greater Malé). Raising, expanding and connecting ‘urban’ islands can provide multiple benefits. Significant developments have already occurred in Greater Malé and further developments there and for other urban centres in the Maldives are expected. Migration to urban centres, especially Malé, is widespread and this adaptation approach assumes this trend continues, implying many other islands are depopulated or abandoned. Tourism is core to the Maldives economy and tourist islands require a different ambience to urban islands. They could be sustained with sympathetic soft engineering reinforcing the natural processes that produce atolls. While land advance and island raising provides a technical solution for sealevel rise, any application must also address the additional policy, human, physical, engineering and economic/ financial challenges that are raised. Nonetheless, by aligning adaptation through land advance/raising with existing development trends, atoll nations have the potential to persist and prosper for many centuries even as sea levels inevitably rise. This provides a realistic alternative to widespread assumptions about forced migration and ultimate national abandonment. The lessons here may find wider application to other small island settings and even mainland coasts.},

note = {Data availability statement: No new data was generated in this paper. Model inputs that are freely available and not commercially sensitive can be found in Wadey et al (2017) and Brown et al (2020). The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at the following URL/DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12567. Funding information: S B and R J N were funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme’s collaborative project RISES-AM- (Contract FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage-603396) and the United Kingdom Natural Environment Research Council and United Kingdom Government Department of Business Energy & Industrial Strategy grant ‘ADJUST1.5’, NE/P01495X/1. O B, A C, S F, L G, M P, M S and J W acknowledge funding from the School of Engineering, University of Southampton, where all authors (apart from A S and Z K) were based for the primary study.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{bacc7b51258147519fdc9e7c868a780c,

title = {Barriers and enablers for upscaling coastal restoration},

author = {Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla and Iván Cáceres and Xavier Le Roux and Jochen Hinkel and Mark Schuerch and Robert J. Nicholls and del Mar Otero and Joanna Staneva and Mindert Vries and Umberto Pernice and Christophe Briere and Nuno Caiola and Vicente Gracia and Carles Ibáñez and Silvia Torresan},

doi = {10.1016/j.nbsj.2022.100032},

issn = {2772-4115},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-12-01},

journal = {Nature-Based Solutions},

volume = {2},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Coastal restoration is often distrusted and, at best, implemented at small scales, which hampers its potential for coastal adaptation. Present technical, economic and management barriers stem from sectoral and poorly coordinated local interventions, which are insufficiently monitored and maintained, precluding the upscaling required to build up confidence in ecosystem restoration. The paper posits that there is enough knowledge, technology, financial and governance capabilities for increasing the pace and scale of restoration, before the onset of irreversible coastal degradation. We propose a systemic restoration, which integrates Nature based Solutions (NbS) building blocks, to provide climate-resilient ecosystem services and improved biodiversity to curb coastal degradation. The result should be a reduction of coastal risks from a decarbonised coastal protection, which at the same time increases coastal blue carbon. We discuss barriers and enablers for coastal adaptation-through-restoration plans, based on vulnerable coastal archetypes, such as deltas, estuaries, lagoons and coastal bays. These plans, based on connectivity and accommodation space, result in enhanced resilience and biodiversity under increasing climatic and human pressures. The paper concludes with a review of the interconnections between the technical, financial and governance dimensions of restoration, and discusses how to fill the present implementation gap.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{c1738022b0b046e9b059991c47a3ac2a,

title = {Understanding the drivers of coastal flood exposure and risk from 1860 to 2100},

author = {Daniel Lincke and Jochen Hinkel and Matthias Mengel and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.1029/2021EF002584},

issn = {2328-4277},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-12-01},

journal = {Earths Future},

volume = {10},

number = {12},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Global coastal flood exposure (population and assets) has been growing since the beginning of the industrial age and is likely to continue to grow through 21st century. Three main drivers are responsible: (1) climate-related mean sea-level change, (2) vertical land movement contributing to relative sea-level rise, and (3) socio-economic development. This paper attributes growing coastal exposure and flood risk from 1860 to 2100 to these three drivers. For historic flood exposure (1860 to 2005) we find that the roughly six-fold increase in population exposure and 53-fold increase in asset exposure are almost completely explained by socio-economic development (>97% for population and >99% for assets). For future exposure (2005 to 2100), assuming a middle-of-the-road regionalized socio-economic scenario (SSP2) without coastal migration and sea-level rise according to RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, climate-change induced sea-level rise will become the most important driver for the growth in population exposure, while growth in asset exposure will still be mainly determined by socio-economic development.},

note = {Research Funding: PROTECT project. Grant Number: 869304; ERA4CS Projects ISIPEDIA. Grant Number: 01LS1711C; INSeaPTION. Grant Number: 01LS1703A; FORMAS; BMBF; IFD; MINECO; ANR; EU. Grant Number: 690462; CoCliCo project. Grant Number: 101003598; COACCH project. Grant Number: 776479},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{7da7406929704bbdbbb1a01e369284e3,

title = {Benefits of subsidence control for coastal flooding in China},

author = {Jiayi Fang and Robert J. Nicholls and Sally Brown and Daniel Lincke and Jochen Hinkel and Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Shiqiang Du and Qing Zhao and Min Liu and Peijun Shi},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-34525-w},

issn = {2041-1723},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-11-14},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {13},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to 5 times higher than climate-induced SLR, reflecting that people are concentrated in subsiding locations. In 2050, assuming these subsidence rates continue, land area, population and assets exposed to the 100-year coastal flood event is 20%-39%, 17%-37% and 18%-39% higher than assuming climate change alone, respectively. Realistic subsidence control measures can avoid up to two thirds of this additional growth in exposure, with adaptation required to address the residual. This analysis emphasizes subsidence as a RSLR hazard in China that requires a broad-scale policy response, utilizing subsidence control combined with coastal adaptation.},

note = {Data availability: All datasets used in the production of this paper are available from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.696911558. Source data are provided with this paper. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License. Code availability: The DIVA code is available at https://gitlab.com/daniel.lincke.globalclimateforum.org/diva_published. The R code used to produce the numbers, tables and figures is available from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.696911558. Source data are provided with this paper. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License. Acknowledgements: J.F., S.D. and P.S. were supported by National Key R & D Programme of China (2017YFC1503001), National Natural Science Foundation of China (42001096) and Expertise-Introduction Project for Disciplinary Innovation of Universities: Hazard and Risk Science Base at Beijing Normal University (BP0820003). A.T.V., D.L., J.H., R.J.N. and S.B. were supported by the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under grant agreement No. 603396 (RISES-AM project). S.B. undertook most of this work at the University of Southampton, where she remains a visitor. It does not reflect the views or positions of subsequent organisations she moved to. R.J.N., D.L. and J.H. were supported by the PROTECT Project. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 42.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{9adf3eafcb77465394b476648cdee064,

title = {A high‐end estimate of sea‐level rise for practitioners},

author = {R. S. W. Wal and R. J. Nicholls and D. Behar and K. McInnes and D. Stammer and J. A. Lowe and J. A. Church and R. Deconto and X. Fettweis and H. Goelzer and M. Haasnoot and I. D. Haigh and J. Hinkel and B. P. Horton and T. S. James and A. Jenkins and G. Lecozannet and A. Levermann and W. H. Lipscomb and B. Marzeion and F. Pattyn and T. Payne and T. Pfeffer and S. F. Price and H. Seroussi and S. Sun and W. Veatch and K. White},

doi = {10.1029/2022EF002751},

issn = {2328-4277},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-11-01},

journal = {Earths Future},

volume = {10},

number = {11},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Sea-level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2 ˚C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5) we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2 ˚C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.},

note = {Research Funding: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; UK Met Office; National Center for Atmospheric Research; National Science Foundation. Grant Number: 1852977; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. Grant Number: MA 6966/1-2; Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS. Grant Numbers: O0100718F, EOS ID 30454083; Earth Observatory of Singapore Australian Research Council. Grant Numbers: DP190101173, DP190101173; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research; QNLM; CSIRO; PROTECT; European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. Grant Number: 869304; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union project RECEIPT. Grant Number: 820712; Research Council of Norway. Grant Numbers: 270061, 295046, 324639; National Infrastructure for High Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway. Grant Numbers: NS8006K, NS8085K, NS9560K, NS9252K, NS5011K; Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Programme; Climate Change Geoscience Program of the Geological Survey of Canada; Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund. Grant Number: MOE2019-T3-1-004; Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology; Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative; Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science. Grant Number: SR200100008; NASA’s Cryospheric Science and Sea Level Change Team programs; NPP; U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research program.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2e6d6f26582148858cdc775fe25f4743,

title = {A typology of responsibility for coastal flood risk adaptation},

author = {Sien Plank and Sally Brown and Emma L. Thompkins and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2022.954950},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-09-23},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {9},

publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},

abstract = {The management of coastal flood risk is adapting to meet the challenges and increased risks posed by population change as well as by climate change, especially sea level rise. Protection is being targeted to areas where the benefits are highest, while elsewhere there is a shift towards more localized “living with floods” and “resilience” approaches. Such decentralized approaches to flood risk management (FRM) require a diverse range of stakeholder groups to be engaged as “flood risk citizens”. Engagement of households in FRM is central to this process. Despite significant research on stakeholder engagement in coastal and flood risk management, there is less focus on the nature of responsibility in coastal adaptation. There is no framework by which to assess the different types of responsibility in hazard management and adaptation, and little research on the implications of expecting these responsibilities of stakeholder groups. In this paper, we identify five types of responsibility that are embedded throughout the disaster risk reduction cycle of managing coastal flooding. We build this ”typology of responsibility” on existing work on the evolution of stakeholder engagement and stakeholder responsibility relationships in risk management processes, and a dataset of institutional stakeholder interviews and households surveys conducted across three case studies in England, the United Kingdom, in 2018 and 2019. We analyze the interviews using thematic analysis to explore institutional stakeholder perceptions of responsibility in coastal FRM, and analyze the household survey through descriptive and inferential statistics. By developing the first disaster risk reduction focused typology of responsibility for coastal flooding, we provide researchers and decision-makers with a tool to guide their planning and allocation of responsibilities in risk management for floods and other climate-driven hazards.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: All data supporting this study are openly available from the University of Southampton repository at https://doi.org/10.5258/SOTON/D1609 and http://dx.doi.org/10.5258/SOTON/D1608. Funding information: This work was funded through UKRI ESRC ES/W006189/1. The first named author would like to thank the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and the Leverhulme Trust for their funding toward the PhD research on which this paper is based.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{3c35ab204e6e4f989b39ceec9ad16d78,

title = {Daily synoptic conditions associated with occurrences of compound events in estuaries along North Atlantic coastlines},

author = {Paula Camus and Ivan D. Haigh and Thomas Wahl and Ahmed A. Nasr and Fernando Méndez and Stephen E. Darby and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.1002/joc.7556},

issn = {0899-8418},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-09-01},

journal = {International Journal of Climatology},

volume = {42},

number = {11},

pages = {5694–5713},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Coastal compound flooding events occur when extreme events of rainfall, river discharge and sea level coincide and collectively increase water surface elevation, exacerbating flooding. The meteorological conditions that generate these events are usually low-pressure systems that generate high winds and intense rainfall. In this study, we identify the types of synoptic atmospheric conditions that are typically associated with coastal compound events using a weather-type approach, for the North Atlantic coastlines (encompassing northwest Europe and the east coast of the U.S.). Compound events are identified along the estuaries of the study region from 1980 to 2014 based on an impact function defined by water surface elevation that resulted from the combination of river discharge and sea level. We find that compound events are more frequent along European as opposed to US coastlines. In both cases, they are associated with a few dominant weather patterns. European hotspots of compound events are concentrated in the west coast of UK, the northwest coast of the Iberian Peninsula and around the Strait of Gibraltar. These areas share the same weather patterns which represent the main pathways of storms that cross the North Atlantic Ocean. In the case of US locations, the areas with highest number of compound events are located mainly in the Gulf of Mexico and along Mexico and along the mid-eastern US coastlines. In these areas, compound events are produced by transitional weather patterns, which describe storms that travel northward parallel to the coastline. Splitting the occurrence of compound events in the corresponding weather types discriminates the interannual variability based on the relationship with dominant climate indices in the North Atlantic Ocean.},

note = {Funding Information: This research forms part of the CHANCE project, which is supported by awards from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NE/S010262/1) and US National Science Foundation (1929382). The authors would like to thank Dirk Eilander for providing support about the use of dataset of simulated water levels and discharge at river mouth locations globally which is available on Zenodo (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.3665734).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{5760653e432747c5a23a89cca0b75311,

title = {Sustainability of the coastal zone of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta under climatic and anthropogenic stresses},

author = {Md. Munsur Rahman and Anisul Haque and Robert J. Nicholls and Stephen E. Darby and Mahmida Tul Urmi and Md. Maruf Dustegir and Frances E. Dunn and Anika Tahsin and Sadmina Razzaque and Kevin Horsburgh and Md. Aminul Haque},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154547},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-07-10},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {829},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta is one of the world's largest deltas. It is currently experiencing high rates of relative sea-level rise of about 5 mm/year, reflecting anthropogenic climate change and land subsidence. This is expected to accelerate further through the 21st Century, so there are concerns that the GBM delta will be progressively submerged. In this context, a core question is: can sedimentation on the delta surface maintain its elevation relative to sea level? This research seeks to answer this question by applying a two-dimensional flow and morphological model which is capable of handling dynamic interactions between the river and floodplain systems and simulating floodplain sedimentation under different flow-sediment regimes and anthropogenic interventions. We find that across a range of flood frequencies and adaptation scenarios (including the natural polder-free state), the retained volume of sediment varies between 22% and 50% of the corresponding sediment input. This translates to average rates of sedimentation on the delta surface of 5.5 mm/yr to 7.5 mm/yr. Hence, under present conditions, sedimentation associated with quasi-natural conditions can exceed current rates of relative sea-level rise and potentially create new land mass. These findings highlight that encouraging quasi-natural conditions through the widespread application of active sediment management measures has the potential to promote more sustainable outcomes for the GBM delta. Practical measures to promote include tidal river management, and appropriate combinations of cross-dams, bandal-like structures, and dredging.},

note = {Acknowledgements: Collecting the bathymetry data was supported by the ‘ESPA Deltas (NE/J002755/1)’ project supported by the ESPA programme, funded by the Department for International Development (DfID), the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK, and the National Water Resources Database hosted at Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO), Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh (GoB). The model development was supported by the DECCMA Project (Grant No. IDRC 107642), part of the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's DfID and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada, the WARPO Projects, ‘Research on the Morphological processes under Climate Changes, Sea Level Rise and Anthropogenic Intervention in the coastal zone’ and ‘Research on Sediment Distribution and Management in South-West Region of Bangladesh’ funded from MoWR, GoB and the ACCORD project (NE/R000123/1) funded by the UK NERC (through National Oceanographic Center, NOC).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{7de42a5ecca54f55858dd735fa757945,

title = {Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals},

author = {Lena I. Fuldauer and Scott Thacker and Robyn A. Haggis and Francesco Fuso-Nerini and Robert J. Nicholls and Jim W. Hall},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-31202-w},

issn = {2041-1723},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-06-23},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {13},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {The international community has committed to achieve 169 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets by 2030 and to enhance climate adaptation under the Paris Agreement. Despite the potential for synergies, aligning SDG and climate adaptation efforts is inhibited by an inadequate understanding of the complex relationship between SDG targets and adaptation to impacts of climate change. Here we propose a framework to conceptualise how ecosystems and socio-economic sectors mediate this relationship, which provides a more nuanced understanding of the impacts of climate change on all 169 SDG targets. Global application of the framework reveals that adaptation of wetlands, rivers, cropland, construction, water, electricity, and housing in the most vulnerable countries is required to safeguard achievement of 68% of SDG targets from near-term climate risk by 2030. We discuss how our framework can help align National Adaptation Plans with SDG targets, thus ensuring that adaptation advances, rather than detracts from, sustainable development.},

note = {Author correction: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33518-z},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{3ce6dc14fc9a4b5db013f561ea866f8c,

title = {Editorial: Climate Services for Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise},

author = {Gonéri Le Cozannet and Robert James Nicholls and Roderik Wal and Michael Dylan Sparrow and Jing Li and Julie Billy},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2022.943079},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-06-09},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {9},

publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},

note = {Funding Information: We thank Ricardo Briganti, Juan Jose Munoz-Perez, João Canning-Clode and Ivica Vilibic for editing papers involving editors of this Research Topic. We thank the WRCP Grand Challenge on Regional Sea level and Coastal Impacts, Clivar and BRGM for organizing the workshop and US-Clivar, UNESCO/IOC for sponsorship. Funding Information: GC, RN, RW were supported by PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 37.},

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}

@article{1c3aec9840884b11a9881bad60aa3552,

title = {Evaluation of flexibility in adaptation projects for climate change},

author = {Myung-Jin Kim and Robert J. Nicholls and John M. Preston and Gustavo A. De Almeida},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-022-03331-0},

issn = {0165-0009},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-03-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {171},

publisher = {Springer},

abstract = {Climate change adaptation inherently entails investment decision-making under the high levels of uncertainty. To address this issue, a single fixed large investment can be divided into two or more sequential investments. This reduces the initial investment cost and adds flexibility about the size and timing of subsequent investment decisions. This flexibility enables future investment decisions to be made when further information about the magnitude of climate change becomes available. This paper presents a real option analysis framework to evaluate adaptations including flexibility to reduce both the risk and uncertainty of climate change, against increasing coastal flooding due to sea-level rise as an example. The paper considers (i) how to design the sequence of adaptation options under growing risk of sea-level rise, and (ii) how to make the efficient use of flexibility included in adaptations for addressing uncertainty. A set of flexibilities (i.e. wait or future growth) are incorporated into single-stage investments (i.e. raising coastal defence from 2.5 mAOD to 3.5mAOD or 4.0 mAOD) in stages so that multiple-stage adaptations with different heights are created. The proposed method compares these sequentially growing adaptations in economic terms, including optimisation, providing additional information on the efficiency of flexible adaptation strategies given the uncertainty of climate change. The results from the evaluation enable decision-makers to identify long-lasting robust adaptation against the uncertainty of climate change.},

note = {Funding Information: This research is supported by the School of Engineering, University of Southampton (UK).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{5dc6c446afc346bb964660e3cfbbb341,

title = {Developing socio-ecological scenarios: A participatory process for engaging stakeholders},

author = {Andrew Allan and Emily J. Barbour and Robert Nicholls and Craig W. Hutton and Michelle Lim and Mashfiqus Salehin and Md Munsur Rahman},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150512},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-02-10},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {807},

number = {1},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Deltas are experiencing profound demographic, economic and land use changes and human-induced catchment and climate change. Bangladesh exemplifies these difficulties through multiple climate risks including subsidence/sea-level rise, temperature rise, and changing precipitation patterns, as well as changing management of the Ganges and Brahmaputra catchments. There is a growing population and economy driving numerous more local changes, while dense rural population and poverty remain significant. Identifying appropriate policy and planning responses is extremely difficult in these circumstances. This paper adopts a participatory scenario development process incorporating both socio-economic and biophysical elements across multiple scales and sectors as part of an integrated assessment of ecosystem services and livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh. Rather than simply downscale global perspectives, the analysis was driven by a large and diverse stakeholder group who met with the researchers over four years as the assessment was designed, implemented and applied. There were four main stages: (A) establish meta-framework for the analysis; (B) develop qualitative scenarios of key trends; (C) translate these scenarios into quantitative form for the integrated assessment model analysis; and (D) a review of the model results, which raises new stakeholder insights (e.g., preferred adaptation and policy responses) and questions. Step D can be repeated leading to an iterative learning loop cycle, and the process can potentially be ongoing. The strong and structured process of stakeholder engagement gave strong local ownership of the scenarios and the wider process. This process can be generalised for widespread application across socio-ecological systems following the same four-stage approach. It demands sustained engagement with stakeholders and hence needs to be linked to a long-term research process. However, it facilitates a more credible foundation for planning especially where there are multiple interacting factors.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{ff74620ae7ea44809de5b387aa11f3d3,

title = {Sea-level rise: From global perspectives to local services},

author = {Gaël Durand and Michiel R. Broeke and Goneri Le Cozannet and Tamsin L. Edwards and Paul R. Holland and Nicolas C. Jourdain and Ben Marzeion and Ruth Mottram and Robert J. Nicholls and Frank Pattyn and Frank Paul and Aimée B. A. Slangen and Ricarda Winkelmann and Clara Burgard and Caroline J. Calcar and Jean-Baptiste Barré and Amélie Bataille and Anne Chapuis},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2021.709595},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-20},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {8},

publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},

abstract = {Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers as well as the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of the two ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of ∼65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{10ecc00ad55c4781bf574beb9d1ae4c3,

title = {Identifying adaptation ‘on the ground’: Development of a UK adaptation inventory},

author = {Katie Jenkins and Alistair Ford and Craig Robson and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2022.100430},

issn = {2212-0963},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Climate Risk Management},

volume = {36},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Adaptation plays a crucial role in managing the unavoidable risks from climate change. The UK is considered to be at the forefront of national adaptation planning. However, the extent to which plans and programmes translate into tangible risk reducing action on the ground, as opposed to adaptive capacity building, remains less clear. Given that there is no formal database of adaptation action for the UK, despite the various needs of government to identify, assess and report on adaptation progress, including the UK national stocktake on adaptation under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, this study outlines the development of an up-to-date and forward-looking UK Adaptation Inventory. The Inventory documents adaptation on the ground, based on national reporting to government by public and private sector organisations and a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature. The framework is centred on identifying and documenting current and planned adaptation; how it is being implemented in terms of the types of adaptation actions; and the sectors where adaptation is occurring and where gaps may remain. For the sub-set of sectors captured there is clear evidence of a wide range of cross-sectoral and sector-specific adaptation being implemented. In total, 360 examples were identified, over 80% of which have already been implemented. This comprises 134 different types of adaptation action, largely aimed at reducing vulnerability using engineered, built environment or technological mechanisms. Compared to the situation a decade earlier, this suggests that significant progress has occurred in the UK in terms of reporting and implementing adaptation, including adaptation by the private sector in climate sensitive sectors. At the broader level, the Inventory is a first step in providing a baseline assessment for the UK stocktake on adaptation; can help inform other organisations about adaptation options that are available; and provide case studies of actions in practice to help support decision-making.},

note = {Funding Information: This research is part of a NERC funded project: OpenCLIM (Open CLimate Impacts modelling framework) (NE/T013931/1).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{b1525104d4c1492c9afa7ec491658e13,

title = {Living with sea-level rise in North-West Europe: Science-policy challenges across scales},

author = {Bart Hurk and Alexander Bisaro and Marjolijn Haasnoot and Robert J. Nicholls and Katrin Rehdanz and Dana Stuparu},

doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2022.100403},

issn = {2212-0963},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Climate Risk Management},

volume = {35},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Sea-level rise (SLR) confronts coastal societies and stakeholders with increasing hazards and coastal risks with large uncertainties associated to these changes. Adaptation to SLR requires societal and policy decision-making to consider these changing risks, which are in turn defined by socio-economic development objectives and the local societal context. Here, we review some of the key challenges facing governments, stakeholders and scientists in adapting to SLR, and key aspects of successful adaptation, by exploring different approaches to SLR and coastal adaptation planning in three western European countries, the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom. Several common challenges of SLR adaptation emerge across the different settings, including the inherent uncertainty regarding future conditions, the significant social and socio-economic consequences, the consideration and distribution of (residual) risk over communities, and the long legacy of present-day decisions that affect future risk and management options supporting future generations. These challenges are addressed differently in the three countries, e.g. in the governance level at which adaptation is initiated, although common elements also emerge. One common emerging element is adaptive pathways planning, which entails dynamic decision-making that breaks uncertain decisions into manageable elements or steps over time, while keeping options for the future. Another common element is the development of effective local science-policy interfaces, as engagement of local decision-makers and citizens is essential to manage conflicting interests. Lastly, we find that social and communication sciences have great potential to support effective science-policy interfaces, e.g. though identifying societal tipping points. Yet, in decisions on SLR adaptation, insights from these fields are rarely used to date. We conclude that supporting science-policy interactions for adaptation decision-making at relevant (inter)national to local scales through tailored multi-disciplinary scientific assessments is an important way forward for SLR adaptation in Europe.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2130dce9b28949f8af8fb990b778bc73,

title = {Assessment and attribution of mangrove forest changes in the Indian Sundarbans from 2000 to 2020},

author = {Sourav Samanta and Sugata Hazra and Partho P. Mondal and Abhra Chanda and Sandip Giri and Jon R. French and Robert Nicholls},

doi = {10.3390/rs13244957},

issn = {2072-4292},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-12-07},

journal = {Remote Sensing},

volume = {13},

number = {24},

publisher = {MDPI AG},

abstract = {The Indian Sundarbans, together with Bangladesh, comprise the largest mangrove forest in the world. Reclamation of the mangroves in this region ceased in the 1930s. However, they are still subject to adverse environmental influences, such as sediment starvation due to migration of the main river channels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta over the last few centuries, cyclone landfall, wave action from the Bay of Bengal—changing hydrology due to upstream water diversion—and the pervasive effects of relative sea-level rise. This study builds on earlier work to assess changes from 2000 to 2020 in mangrove extent, genus composition, and mangrove ‘health’ indicators, using various vegetation indices derived from Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery by performing maximum likelihood supervised classification. We show that about 110 km 2 of mangroves disappeared within the reserve forest due to erosion, and 81 km 2 were gained within the inhabited part of Sundarbans Biosphere Reserve (SBR) through plantation and regeneration. The gains are all outside the contiguous mangroves. However, they partially compensate for the losses of the contiguous mangroves in terms of carbon. Genus composition, analyzed by amalgamating data from published literature and ground-truthing surveys, shows change towards more salt-tolerant genus accompanied by a reduction in the prevalence of freshwater-loving Heiritiera, Nypa, and Sonneratia assemblages. Health indicators, such as the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), show a monotonic trend of deterioration over the last two decades, which is more pronounced in the sea-facing parts of the mangrove forests. An increase in salinity, a temperature rise, and rainfall reduction in the pre-monsoon and the post-monsoon periods appear to have led to such degradation. Collectively, these results show a decline in mangrove area and health, which poses an existential threat to the Indian Sundarbans in the long term, especially under scenarios of climate change and sea-level rise. Given its unique values, the policy process should acknowledge and address these threats.},

note = {Funding Information: This research was funded under the “Towards a Sustainable Earth: Environment-human systems and the UN Global Goals” (TaSE) program in the project “Opportunities and trade-offs between the SDGs for food, welfare and the environment in deltas”. Funding was provided by NERC Grant NE/S012478/1, Formas Grant 2019-00045, and the UKIERI-DBT (Grant No. BT/IN/TaSE/70/ SH/2018-19) under UK-India Education Research Initiative.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{f87c35e42ec74c688c257cf19fc76bdb,

title = {Coastal landfills and rising sea levels: A challenge for the 21st century},

author = {Robert J. Nicholls and Richard P. Beaven and Anne Stringfellow and Daniel Monfort and Gonéri Le Cozannet and Thomas Wahl and Julia Gebert and Matthew Wadey and Arne Arns and Kate L. Spencer and Debra Reinhart and Timo Heimovaara and Victor M. Santos and Alejandra R. Enríquez and Samantha Cope},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2021.710342},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-30},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {8},

publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},

abstract = {Populated coastal areas worldwide have a legacy of numerous solid waste disposal sites. At the same time, mean sea level is rising and likely to accelerate, increasing flooding and/or erosion. There is therefore concern that landfill sites located at and near the coast pose a growing risk to the environment from the potential release of liquid and solid waste materials. This paper aims to assess our present understanding of this issue as well as research and practice needs by synthesizing the available evidence across a set of developed country cases, comprising England, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United States (Florida). Common insights gained here include: (1) a lack of data and limited appreciation of waste release from coastal landfill as a potential problem; (2) recognition of the scale and diversity of coastal landfill waste within a range of generic settings (or situations); and (3) a lack of robust protocols that allow the impact of different categories of waste release to the coast to be assessed in a consistent and evidence-based manner, most particularly for solid waste. Hence, a need for greater understanding of the following issues is identified: (1) the amount, character and impact of waste that could be released from landfill sites; (2) the acceptability and regulation of waste eroding from coastal landfills; (3) present and future erosion rates at landfill sites suggesting the need for more monitoring and relevant predictive tools; (4) the full range of possible management methods for dealing with waste release from landfills and the science to support them; and (5) relevant long-term funding mechanisms to address this issue. The main focus and experience of current management practice has been protection/retention, or removal of landfills, with limited consideration of other feasible solutions and how they might be facilitated. Approaches to assess and address solid waste release to the marine/coastal environment represent a particular gap. Lastly, as solid waste will persist indefinitely and sea levels will rise for many centuries, the long timescale of this issue needs wider appreciation and should be included in coastal and waste policy.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{eb56d7ab66274b80abf4c4989b5e51c0,

title = {The UK needs an open data portal dedicated to coastal flood and erosion hazard risk and resilience},

author = {Eli D. Lazarus and Sofia Aldabet and Charlotte E. l. Thompson and Christopher T. Hill and Robert J. Nicholls and Jon R. French and Sally Brown and Emma L. Tompkins and Ivan D. Haigh and Ian H. Townend and Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell},

doi = {10.1139/anc-2020-0023},

issn = {2561-4150},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-17},

journal = {Anthropocene Coasts},

volume = {4},

number = {1},

pages = {137–146},

publisher = {Canadian Science Publishing},

abstract = {In the UK, coastal flooding and erosion are two of the primary climate-related hazards to communities, businesses, and infrastructure. To better address the ramifications of those hazards, now and into the future, the UK needs to transform its scattered, fragmented coastal data resources into a systematic, integrated portal for quality-assured, publicly accessible open data. Such a portal would support analyses of coastal risk and resilience by hosting, in addition to data layers for coastal flooding and erosion, a diverse array of spatial datasets for building footprints, infrastructure networks, land use, population, and various socio-economic measures and indicators derived from survey and census data. The portal would facilitate novel combinations of spatial data layers to yield scientifically, societally, and economically beneficial insights into UK coastal systems.},

note = {Funding Information: The authors are grateful for support from the Strategic Priorities Fund UK Climate Resilience Programme through UK Research & Innovation award NE/S016651/1, and a Southampton Marine and Maritime Institute (SMMI) Doctoral Studentship to S.A.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{dc75b84a0ea2414f8041be65edda814f,

title = {Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article)},

author = {Piero Lionello and David Barriopedro and Christian Ferrarin and Robert J. Nicholls and Mirko Orlić and Fabio Raicich and Marco Reale and Georg Umgiesser and Michalis Vousdoukas and Davide Zanchettin},

doi = {10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021},

issn = {1561-8633},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {21},

number = {8},

pages = {2705–2731},

abstract = {Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water height anomalies individually and can increase the probability of extreme events when they act constructively. The largest extreme water heights are mostly caused by the storm surges produced by the sirocco winds, leading to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centres are located either north or south of the Alps. Historically, the most intense events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the inter-annual variability in extreme water heights is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in water height extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle does not appear to be steadily present if more than 100 years of observations are considered. The historic increase in the frequency of floods since the mid-19th century is explained by relative mean sea level rise. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overcompensating for the small projected decrease in marine storminess. The future increase in extreme water heights covers a wide range, largely reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, especially towards the end of the century. For a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the magnitude of 1-in-100-year water height values at the northern Adriatic coast is projected to increase by 26–35 cm by 2050 and by 53–171 cm by 2100 with respect to the present value and is subject to continued increase thereafter. For a moderate-emission scenario (RCP4.5), these values are 12–17 cm by 2050 and 24–56 cm by 2100. Local subsidence (which is not included in these estimates) will further contribute to the future increase in extreme water heights. This analysis shows the need for adaptive long-term planning of coastal defences using flexible solutions that are appropriate across the large range of plausible future water height extremes.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{c3ee875165cb4d2e994dd95644aa5e70,

title = {Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)},

author = {Davide Zanchettin and Sara Bruni and Fabio Raicich and Piero Lionello and Fanny Adloff and Alexey Androsov and Fabrizio Antonioli and Vincenzo Artale and Eugenio Carminati and Christian Ferrarin and Vera Fofonova and Robert J. Nicholls and Sara Rubinetti and Angelo Rubino and Gianmaria Sannino and Giorgio Spada and Rémi Thiéblemont and Michael Tsimplis and Georg Umgiesser and Stefano Vignudelli and Guy Wöppelmann and Susanna Zerbini},

doi = {10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021},

issn = {1561-8633},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {21},

number = {8},

pages = {2643–2678},

abstract = {The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the observational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, an average change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude comparable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{6dab136dfe74418e8bd2fa273910816d,

title = {The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)},

author = {Georg Umgiesser and Marco Bajo and Christian Ferrarin and Andrea Cucco and Piero Lionello and Davide Zanchettin and Alvise Papa and Alessandro Tosoni and Maurizio Ferla and Elisa Coraci and Sara Morucci and Franco Crosato and Andrea Bonometto and Andrea Valentini and Mirko Orlić and Ivan D. Haigh and Jacob Woge Nielsen and Xavier Bertin and André Bustorff Fortunato and Begoña Pérez Gómez and Enrique Alvarez Fanjul and Denis Paradis and Didier Jourdan and Audrey Pasquet and Baptiste Mourre and Joaquín Tintoré and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021},

issn = {1561-8633},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {21},

number = {8},

pages = {2679–2704},

abstract = {This paper reviews the state of the art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice already depends on operational storm surge forecasting systems to warn the population and economy of imminent flood threats, as well as help to protect the extensive cultural heritage. This will be more important in the future, with the new mobile barriers called MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) that will be completed by 2021. The barriers will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of storm surge forecasting in Europe is reviewed. The challenges for the surge forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. This includes consideration of selected historic extreme events that were particularly difficult to forecast. Four potential improvements are identified: (1) improve meteorological forecasts, (2) develop ensemble forecasting, (3) assimilation of water level measurements and (4) develop a multimodel approach.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{bc4e076c13d3412f98782a550c02adb7,

title = {Venice flooding and sea level: past evolution, present issues, and future projections (introduction to the special issue)},

author = {Piero Lionello and Robert J. Nicholls and Georg Umgiesser and Davide Zanchettin},

doi = {10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021},

issn = {1561-8633},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {21},

number = {8},

pages = {2633–2641},

abstract = {Venice is an iconic place and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural values at risk. The frequency of the flooding of the city centre has dramatically increased in recent decades, and this threat is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. This special issue is a collection of three review articles addressing different and complementary aspects of the hazards causing the floods of Venice, namely (1) the relative sea level rise, (2) the occurrence of extreme water heights, and (3) the prediction of extreme water heights and floods. It emerges that the effect of compound events poses critical challenges to the forecast of floods, particularly from the perspective of effectively operating the new mobile barriers (Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico – MoSE) in Venice and that the relative sea level rise is the key factor determining the future growth of the flood hazard, so that the present defence strategy is likely to become inadequate within this century under a high-emission scenario. Two strands of research are needed in the future. First, there is a need to better understand and reduce the uncertainty of the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes at Venice. However, this uncertainty might not be substantially reduced in the near future, reflecting the uncertain anthropogenic emissions and structural model features. Hence, complementary adaptive planning strategies appropriate for conditions of uncertainty should be explored and developed in the future.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{e10e7ea9078f41feb0099a4e3fcc79a1,

title = {Operationalising coastal resilience to flood and erosion hazard: A demonstration for England},

author = {I. H. Townend and J. R. French and R. J. Nicholls and S. Brown and S. Carpenter and I. D. Haigh and C. T. Hill and E. Lazarus and E. C. Penning-Rowsell and C. E. L. Thompson and E. L. Tompkins},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146880},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-20},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {783},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Resilience is widely seen as an important attribute of coastal systems and, as a concept, is increasingly prominent in policy documents. However, there are conflicting ideas on what constitutes resilience and its operationalisation as an overarching principle of coastal management remains limited. In this paper, we show how resilience to coastal flood and erosion hazard could be measured and applied within policy processes, using England as a case study. We define resilience pragmatically, integrating what is presently a disparate set of policy objectives for coastal areas. Our definition uses the concepts of resistance, recovery and adaptation, to consider how the economic, social and environmental dimensions of coastal systems respond to change. We develop a set of composite indicators for each dimension, grounded empirically with reference to national geospatial datasets. A prototype Coastal Resilience Model (CRM) has been developed, which combines the dimensions and generates a quantitative resilience index. We apply it to England's coastal hazard zone, capturing a range of different stakeholder perspectives using relative indicator weightings. The illustrative results demonstrate the practicality of formalising and quantifying resilience. To re-focus national policy around the stated desire of enhancing resilience to coastal flooding and erosion would require firm commitment from government to monitor progress towards resilience, requiring extension of the present risk-based approach, and a consensus methodology in which multiple (and sometimes conflicting) stakeholder values are explicitly considered. Such a transition may also challenge existing governance arrangements at national and local levels, requiring incentives for coastal managers to engage with and apply this new approach, more departmental integration and inter-agency cooperation. The proposed Coastal Resilience Model, with the tools to support planning and measure progress, has the potential to help enable this transition.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{3ff1bad79d67420fa67b14b9c2fb5e0d,

title = {Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines},

author = {Janaka Bamunawala and Roshanka Ranasinghe and Ali Dastgheib and Robert J. Nicholls and A. Brad Murray and Patrick L. Barnard and T. A. J. G. Sirisena and Trang Minh Duong and Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher and Ad Spek},

doi = {10.1038/s41598-021-93221-9},

issn = {2045-2322},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-07-07},

journal = {Scientific Reports},

volume = {11},

number = {1},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets around the world, using a probabilistic, reduced complexity, system-based model that considers catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic way. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates (90% of cases) over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. However, the remaining systems are projected to accrete under the same scenario, reflecting fluvial influence. This diverse range of response compared to earlier methods implies that erosion hazards at inlet-interrupted coasts have been inadequately characterised to date. The methods used here need to be applied widely to support evidence-based coastal adaptation.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{20d3c75f4f664c91b59174761d2cb675,

title = {Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C},

author = {Sally Brown and Katie Jenkins and Philip Goodwin and Daniel Lincke and Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Richard S. J. Tol and Rhosanna Jenkins and Rachel Warren and Robert J. Nicholls and Svetlana Jevrejeva and Agustin Sanchez Arcilla and Ivan D. Haigh},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-021-03130-z},

issn = {0165-0009},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-07-06},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {167},

number = {1-2},

publisher = {Springer},

abstract = {Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, this paper quantifies the economic costs of flooding and protection due to sea-level rise using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework. Results are presented for World Bank income groups and five selected countries from the present to 2100. Annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are more influenced by socio-economic development than sea-level rise, indicating that there are opportunities to control risk with development choices. In contrast, annual sea dike investment costs are more dependent on the magnitude of sea-level rise. In terms of total costs with adaptation, upper middle, low middle and low income groups are projected to have higher relative costs as a proportion of GDP compared with high income groups. If low income countries protected now, flood costs could be reduced after 2050 and beyond. However, without further adaptation, their coasts will experience growing risks and costs leaving them increasingly reliant on emergency response measures. Without mitigation or adaptation, greater inequalities in damage costs between income groups could result. At country level, annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are projected to rapidly increase with approximately 0.2 m of sea-level rise, leaving limited time to plan and adapt.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{10cff45011ca4e2bb6afd0de878c3d58,

title = {Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns},

author = {Paula Camus and Ivan D. Haigh and Ahmed A. Nasr and Thomas Wahl and Stephen E. Darby and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021},

issn = {1561-8633},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-07-06},

journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {21},

number = {7},

pages = {2021–2040},

abstract = {In coastal regions, floods can arise through a combination of multiple drivers, including direct surface run-off, river discharge, storm surge, and waves. In this study, we analyse compound flood potential in Europe and environs caused by these four main flooding sources using state-of-the-art databases with coherent forcing (i.e. ERA5). First, we analyse the sensitivity of the compound flooding potential to several factors: (1) sampling method, (2) time window to select the concurrent event of the conditioned driver, (3) dependence metrics, and (4) wave-driven sea level definition. We observe higher correlation coefficients using annual maxima than peaks over threshold. Regarding the other factors, our results show similar spatial distributions of the compound flooding potential. Second, the dependence between the pairs of drivers using the Kendall rank correlation coefficient and the joint occurrence are synthesized for coherent patterns of compound flooding potential using a clustering technique. This quantitative multi-driver assessment not only distinguishes where overall compound flooding potential is the highest, but also discriminates which driver combinations are more likely to contribute to compound flooding. We identify that hotspots of compound flooding potential are located along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{a597cb89f1294b459c9bae18b77faab7,

title = {Integrated assessment of the food-water-land-ecosystems nexus in Europe: Implications for sustainability},

author = {Abiy S. Kebede and Robert J. Nicholls and Derek Clarke and Cristina Savin and Paula A. Harrison},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144461},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-05-10},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {768},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Climate and socio-economic change impacts are likely to cross traditional sectoral and regional boundaries with cascading indirect, and potentially far-reaching, repercussions. This is particularly important for the food-water-land-ecosystems (FWLE) nexus, which is fundamental for the achievement of at least six of the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A holistic understanding of the FWLE nexus interactions and how and to what extent various exogenous drivers of change affect them is therefore central to cross-sectoral adaptation planning. Here, we present such an integrated assessment for Europe applying a regional Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP). The study explores a wide range of future climate and socio-economic scenarios using more than 900 model simulations. The results show that food production is likely to be the main driver of Europe's future landscape change dynamics (with or without climate change). Agriculture and land use allocation is often driven by complex cross-sectoral interactions with cascading effects on other sectors such as forestry, biodiversity, and water under the various scenarios. The modelling also highlighted that while sustaining current levels of food production at the European level could be achievable under most climate and socio-economic scenarios, there are significant regional differences with winners and losers. The analysis raises the question of whether current production and consumption policies are sustainable in the long-term. Such systematic integrated model-based analysis plays a crucial role in informing development of cross-sectoral policies that maximise synergies and minimise trade-offs across nexus sectors, regions, and scenarios. This is essential to achieve the SDGs.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{90d60fc95d824748a26e19f59b333cce,

title = {Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process},

author = {Robert J. Nicholls and Susan E. Hanson and Jason A. Lowe and Aimée B. A. Slangen and Thomas Wahl and Jochen Hinkel and Antony J. Long},

doi = {10.1002/wcc.706},

issn = {1757-7780},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-05-01},

journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},

volume = {12},

number = {3},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {The release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the types of SLR information available is presented, including for sea‐level extremes. An intercomparison of the evolution of the headline projected ranges across all the IPCC reports show an increase from the fourth and fifth assessments to the most recent “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” assessment. IPCC reports have begun to highlight the importance of potential high‐end sea‐level response, mainly reflecting uncertainties in the Greenland/Antarctic ice sheet components, and how this might be considered in scenarios. The methods that are developed here are practical and consider coastal risk assessment, adaptation planning, and long‐term decision‐making to be an ongoing process and ensure that despite the large uncertainties, pragmatic adaptation decisions can be made. It is concluded that new sea‐level information should not be seen as an automatic reason for abandoning existing assessments, but as an opportunity to review (i) the assessment's robustness in the light of new science and (ii) the utility of proactive adaptation and planning strategies, especially over the more uncertain longer term.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{02b0ec50c36c4d209f714a2a9d14cc26,

title = {A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure},

author = {Robert J. Nicholls and Daniel Lincke and Jochen Hinkel and Sally Brown and Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Benoit Meyssignac and Susan E. Hanson and Jan-ludolf Merkens and Jiayi Fang},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-021-00993-z},

issn = {1758-678X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-04-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {11},

number = {4},

pages = {338–342},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Climate-induced sea-level rise and vertical land movements, including natural and human-induced subsidence in sedimentary coastal lowlands, combine to change relative sea levels around the world’s coasts. Although this affects local rates of sea-level rise, assessments of the coastal impacts of subsidence are lacking on a global scale. Here, we quantify global-mean relative sea-level rise to be 2.5 mm yr−1 over the past two decades. However, as coastal inhabitants are preferentially located in subsiding locations, they experience an average relative sea-level rise up to four times faster at 7.8 to 9.9 mm yr−1. These results indicate that the impacts and adaptation needs are much higher than reported global sea-level rise measurements suggest. In particular, human-induced subsidence in and surrounding coastal cities can be rapidly reduced with appropriate policy for groundwater utilization and drainage. Such policy would offer substantial and rapid benefits to reduce growth of coastal flood exposure due to relative sea-level rise.},

note = {Erratum at 10.1038/s41558-021-01064-z},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{b2f439425b9d44188c69d2c5dd44ffea,

title = {Social vulnerability to environmental hazards in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, India and Bangladesh},

author = {Shouvik Das and Sugata Hazra and Anisul Haque and Munsur Rahman and Robert J. Nicholls and Amit Ghosh and Tuhin Ghosh and Mashfiqus Salehin and Ricardo Safra De Campos},

doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101983},

issn = {2212-4209},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-02-01},

journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},

volume = {53},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {The coastal areas of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta are acknowledged hotspots of environmental and social concerns. This reflects a large, mainly rural population of 56.7 million, which is exposed to a range of natural hazards exacerbated by climate change, sea-level rise and subsidence. There are high levels of poverty and limited social well-being, including poor access to education, health, drinking water, and sanitation facilities. A spatial assessment of social vulnerability can indicate which communities are more susceptible to environmental hazards, while a temporal assessment may indicate how such vulnerability is changing due to development and other drivers. This study provides the first analysis of social vulnerability across the entire coastal delta within Bangladesh and India. It uses consistent and common secondary data at the sub-district level for two time periods: 2001 and 2011. These are used to construct a socio-economic vulnerability index across the region using Principal Component Analysis. Three main conclusions emerge. Firstly, there is a cross-shore social vulnerability gradient across the whole delta, with more vulnerable people living near the coast. Here, the benefits of access to marine fisheries are not apparent. Secondly, non-agricultural development and economic expansion have reduced the vulnerability significantly, showing its benefits. Lastly, despite general positive development trends, shocks due to major cyclone landfall appear to have enhanced vulnerability in the impacted areas. Further comprehensive analysis across the whole delta is recommended to improve our understanding of the common threats and possible solutions.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}