Robert Nicholls

@article{2032,

title = {Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300},

author = {P Goodwin and S Brown and I Haigh and R J Nicholls and J Matter},

url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017EF000732},

doi = {10.1002/2017EF000732},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Earths Future},

volume = {3},

pages = {601-615},

chapter = {601},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2022,

title = {Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300},

author = {S Brown and R J Nicholls and P Goodwin and I Haigh and D Lincke and A T Vafeidis and J Hinkel},

url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/article/10.1002/2017EF000738/editor-highlight/},

doi = {10.1002/2017EF000738},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Earths Future},

volume = {6},

pages = {583-600},

chapter = {583},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2081,

title = {Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5textdegreeC and 2.0textdegreeC: implications for coastal areas},

author = {R J Nicholls and S Brown and P Goodwin and T Wahl and J Lowe and M Solan and JA Godbold and I Haigh and D Lincke and J Hinkel and C Wolff and J-L Merkens},

url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0448},

doi = {10.1098/rsta.2016.0448},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A},

abstract = {
The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5textdegreeC and 2.0textdegreeC stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.
This article is part of the theme issue textquoteleftThe Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5textdegreeC above pre-industrial levelstextquoteright.
},

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tppubtype = {article}

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@article{1619,

title = {A comparison of two global datasets of extreme sea levels and resulting flood exposure},

author = {S Muis and M Verlaan and R J Nicholls and S Brown and J Hinkel and D Lincke and A T Vafeidis and P Scussolini and H C Winsemius and P J Ward},

doi = {DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000430},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

abstract = {
Estimating the current risk of coastal flooding requires adequate information on extreme sea levels. For over a decade, the only global data available was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL) dataset, which applies a static approximation to estimate extreme sea levels. Recently, a dynamically derived dataset was developed: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here, we compare the two datasets. The differences between DCESL and GTSR are generally larger than the confidence intervals of GTSR. Compared to observed extremes, DCESL generally overestimates extremes with a mean bias of 0.6m. With a mean bias of -0.2m GTSR generally underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model is applied to calculate the present-day flood exposure in terms of the land area and the population below the 1 in 100-year sea levels. Global exposed population is 28% lower when based on GTSR instead of DCESL. Considering the limited data available at the time, DCESL provides a good estimate of the spatial variation in extremes around the world. However, GTSR allows for an improved assessment of the impacts of coastal floods, including confidence bounds. We further improve the assessment of coastal impacts by correcting for the conflicting vertical datum of sea-level extremes and land elevation, which has not been accounted for in previous global assessments. Converting the extreme sea levels to the same vertical reference used for the elevation data is shown to be a critical step resulting in 39-59% higher estimate of population exposure. textcopyright 2017 American Geophysical Union.
},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1602,

title = {A systematic assessment of maritime disruptions affecting UK ports, coastal areas and surrounding seas from 1950 to 2014},

author = {E F Adam and S Brown and R J Nicholls and M Tsimplis},

url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-016-2347-4},

doi = {10.1007/s11069-016-2347-4},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-08-01},

journal = {Natural Hazards},

volume = {83},

pages = {691-713},

chapter = {691},

abstract = {
Maritime disruptions can have severe negative implications including affecting business operations, regional and national economies and causing damage to vessels. This study analysed maritime disruptions in UK ports, coastal areas and surrounding seas from 1950 to 2014, systematically assessing their scale, duration, extent and consequences. Disruptions are a single or sequence of hazardous events that negatively affect textquoteleftbusiness as usualtextquoteright conditions, ranging from minor to major disruption and even loss of life. To express this range, a severity scale was developed and applied. A database of maritime disruptions and their severities was constructed using data archaeology, identifying 88 events, primarily caused by wind storms (36 %), human error (23 %), mechanical faults (14 %) and storm surges (12 %). All events other than human error or mechanical faults occurred between October and March (typically associated with autumn/winter storms and depressions), with 65 % recorded between November and January. Maritime disruptions from weather events tended to have regional/national impacts, whereas human error or mechanical faults were usually locally severe. Since 2000, ports demonstrated more frequent disruption to wind storms due to mechanization, increased delay and closure reporting, and refined health and safety regulations. Most frequently affected were the sea areas Fair Isle and Dover, and the Felixstowe and Dover ports. Through time, primary impacts shifted from extensive flooding and structural damage to financial impacts and disruption, associated with adaptation including implementation/upgrading of coastal defences, storm warning systems and legislation. Port and governmental bodies responded adaptively (e.g. Thames Barrier construction and development of automatic tracking systems). The UKtextquoterights maritime disruption vulnerability has altered significantly since 1950 and continues to evolve.
},

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}

@article{1604,

title = {Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: The case of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna},

author = {S Brown and R J Nicholls},

url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969715300589},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.124},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-09-01},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {527-528},

pages = {362-374},

chapter = {362},

abstract = {
Relative sea/land level changes are fundamental to people living in deltas. Net subsidence is complex and attributed to tectonics, compaction, sedimentation and anthropogenic causes. It can have severe impacts and needs to be quantified and where possible (for subsidence due to anthropogenic causes) avoided. For the highly populated Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, a large range of net subsidence rates are described in the literature, yet the reasons behind this wide range of values are poorly understood. This paper documents and analyses rates of subsidence (for publications until 2014) and relates these findings to human influences (development).
205 point measurements of net subsidence were found, reported in 24 studies. Reported measurements were often repetitive in multiple journals, with some lacking detail as to precise location, cause and method, questioning reliability of the rate of subsidence. Rates differed by locality, methodology and period of measurement. Ten different measurement methods were recorded, with radio-carbon dating being the most common. Temporal and spatially, rates varied between - 1.1 mm/yr (i.e. uplift) and 43.8 mm/yr. The overall mean reported rate was 5.6 mm/yr, and the overall median 2.9 mm/yr, with 7.3 mm/yr representing one standard deviation. These rates were reduced if inaccurate or vague records were omitted. The highest rates were recorded in the Sylhet Plateau, Dhaka and Kolkata. Highest rates were recorded in the last 1000 years, where the mean increased to 8.8 mm/yr and a standard deviation of 7.5 mm/yr. This could be partly due to shorter-term measurement records, or anthropogenic influence as multiple high rates are often found in urban settings. Continued development may cause rates to locally increase (e.g. due to groundwater abstraction and/or drainage). Improved monitoring is required over a wider area, to determine long-term trends, particularly as short-term records are highly variable. Focus in regions where wide spread development is occurring or is expected would be advantageous.
Abbreviations
GPS, Differential Geographical Positioning System; 
GRACE, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; 
InSAR, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar\end{itemize}

},

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@article{1183,

title = {Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe: a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors},

author = {A S Kebede and R Dunford and M Mokrech and E Audsley and PA Harrison and IP Holman and R J Nicholls and S Rickebusch and MDA Rounsevell and S Sabate and F Sallaba and A Sanchez and C Savin and M Trnka and F Wimmer},

url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1313-y},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1313-y},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {128},

pages = {261-277},

chapter = {261},

abstract = {
Integrated cross-sectoral impact assessments facilitate a comprehensive understanding of interdependencies and potential synergies, conflicts, and trade-offs between sectors under changing conditions. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a European integrated assessment model, the CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform (IAP). The IAP incorporates important cross-sectoral linkages between six key European land- and water-based sectors: agriculture, biodiversity, flooding, forests, urban, and water. Using the IAP, we investigate the direct and indirect implications of a wide range of climatic and socio-economic drivers to identify: (1) those sectors and regions most sensitive to future changes, (2) the mechanisms and directions of sensitivity (direct/indirect and positive/negative), (3) the form and magnitudes of sensitivity (linear/non-linear and strong/weak/insignificant), and (4) the relative importance of the key drivers across sectors and regions. The results are complex. Most sectors are either directly or indirectly sensitive to a large number of drivers (more than 18 out of 24 drivers considered). Over twelve of these drivers have indirect impacts on biodiversity, forests, land use diversity, and water, while only four drivers have indirect effects on flooding. In contrast, for the urban sector all the drivers are direct. Moreover, most of the driver–indicator relationships are non-linear, and hence there is the potential for textquoteleftsurprisestextquoteright. This highlights the importance of considering cross-sectoral interactions in future impact assessments. Such systematic analysis provides improved information for decision-makers to formulate appropriate adaptation policies to maximise benefits and minimise unintended consequences.
},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1579,

title = {Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation},

author = {S Brown and R J Nicholls and S Hanson and G Brundrit and JA. Dearing and M E Dickson and SL. Gallop and S Gao and I Haigh and J Hinkel and JA. Jiménez and R J T Klein and W Kron and AN. Lázár and CF Neves and A Newton and C Pattiaratachi and A Payo and K Pye and A Sánchez-Arcilla and M Siddall and A Shareef and E Tompkins and A Vafeidis and B van Maanen and PJ. Ward and CD. Woodroffe},

url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2344.html},

doi = {10.1038/nclimate2344},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-08-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Chnage},

volume = {4},

pages = {752-755},

chapter = {752},

abstract = {
With the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)textquoterights Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)^{}, climate change has again been identified as an important driver of change. Coasts are particularly vulnerable, as they are directly affected by rising sea levels, storminess and other climate drivers: this is accentuated by other issues and changes such as urbanisation, including indirect landward and seaward influences (for example, reduced water and sediment input due to dams). Adverse consequences include increased flooding, salinization, erosion, and wetland and biodiversity loss^{}. Several recent extreme meteorological events have caused catastrophic human and economic losses in coastal areas, such as Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar, 2008), Storm Xynthia (France, 2010), Hurricane Sandy (eastern United States, Canada and Caribbean, 2012) and Typhoon Haiyan (Philippines, 2013). Although coasts have always been hazardous places to live, global economic losses have significantly increased in recent decades^{}. Climate change is exacerbating those risks. This Commentary demonstrates how successive IPCC coastal chapters^{,, , , } have shifted from impacts towards adaptation, assessing the relative role of climate change within a broader environmental framework, with increasing clarity and nuance, despite continuing uncertainties.
},

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@article{1410,

title = {Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts},

author = {P Willems and R Weisse and D Bellafiore and M Menendez and F Mendez and R J Nicholls and G Umgiesser},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Coastal Engineering},

volume = {87},

pages = {4-14},

chapter = {4},

abstract = {
Extreme sea levels at European coasts and their changes over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are considered, including a method to analyze extreme sea levels and to assess their changes in a consistent way at different sites. The approach is based on using a combination of statistical tools and dynamical modelling as well as observational data and scenarios for potential future developments. The analysis is made for both time series of extreme sea levels and individually for the different components contributing to the extremes comprising (i) mean sea level changes, (ii) wind waves and storm surges and (iii), for relevant places, river flows. It is found that while regionally results vary in detail, some general inferences can be obtained. In particular it is found, that extreme sea levels show pronounced short-term and long-term variability partly associated with seasonal and nodal tidal cycles. Long-term trends are mostly associated with corresponding mean sea level changes while changes in wave and storm surge climate mostly contribute to inter-annual and decadal variability, but do not show substantial long-term trends. It is expected that this situation will continue for the upcoming decades and that long-term variability dominates over long-term trends at least for the coming decades. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.
},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{865,

title = {Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise},

author = {C Ionescu and X Fettweis and A Levermann and B Marzeion and J Hinkel and D Lincke and A Vafeidis and M Perrette and R J Nicholls and R S J Tol},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {PNAS},

abstract = {
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data, population data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional sea level was derived from four different climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, each combined with three land-ice scenarios based on the published range of contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Without adaptation, 0.2-4.6% of global population is expected to be flooded annually in 2100 under 25-123 cm of global mean sea-level rise, with expected annual losses of 0.3-9.3% of global gross domestic product. Damages of this magnitude are very unlikely to be tolerated by society and adaptation will be widespread. The global costs of protecting the coast with dikes are significant with annual investment and maintenance costs of US$ 12-71 billion in 2100, but much smaller than the global cost of avoided damages even without accounting for indirect costs of damage to regional production supply. Flood damages by the end of this century are much more sensitive to the applied protection strategy than to variations in climate and socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data sources (topography and climate model). Our results emphasize the central role of long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These should also take into account that protecting large parts of the developed coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in the case of defense failure.
},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

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@article{1112,

title = {Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact},

author = {R J Nicholls and T Osborn and P Zelazowski and J Lowe and N W Arnell and S Brown and S Gosling and J Hinkel and C Huntingford and B Lloyd-Hughes},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

pages = {1-13},

chapter = {1},

abstract = {
Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator. © 2014 The Author(s).
},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1145,

title = {Identification of textquoteleftenergetictextquoteright swell waves in a tidal strait},

author = {T Palmer and R J Nicholls and NC Wells and A Saulter and T Mason},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Continental Shelf Research},

volume = {88},

pages = {203-215},

chapter = {203},

abstract = {
Energetic swell waves present a significant coastal hazard. Overtopping is particularly sensitive to these longer period waves, potentially resulting in coastal flooding. In narrow tidal seas which are linked to large oceans, such as the English Channel, the importance of swell for design considerations is not immediately obvious. However, historical experience shows occasional severe impacts from long period waves, such as on 6th February 1904, 13th February 1979 and most recently two events in February 2014. When wave buoy measurements are analyzed using spectral partitioning methods, it is possible to identify swell wave systems with significant energy within the overall spectrum. This often coincides with the occurrence of storm waves, which might mask the presence of the swell component without such analysis. Two case studies where flooding occurred during storm events are examined in this paper. It has been possible to associate individual spectral components with the occurrence of overtopping of coastal defences at a particular location. Further investigation of the characteristics and frequency of energetic swell waves are recommended to enhance prediction and the design of coastal defences, and hence reduce their consequences.
},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{990b,

title = {The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment},

author = {JA Lowe and TM Osborne and GA Rose and P Zelazowski and TJ Osborn and TR Wheeler and B Lloyd-Hughes and P Smith and R J Nicholls and N A Arnell and S Brown and SN Gosling and P Gottschalk and J Hinkel and C Huntingford},

url = {http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/371828},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

abstract = {
The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate andsocio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.
},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{536b,

title = {Implications of sea-level rise and extreme events around Europe: A review of coastal energy infrastructure},

author = {S Brown and S Hanson and R J Nicholls},

url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0996-9},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0996-9},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {122},

pages = {81-95},

chapter = {81},

abstract = {
Sea-levelrise and extremeevents have the potential to significantly impact coastalenergyinfrastructure through flooding and erosion. Disruptions to supply, transportation and storage of energy have global ramifications and potential contamination of the natural environment. On a European scale, there is limited information about energy facilities and their strategic plans for adapting to climate change. Using a Geographical Information System this paper assesses coastalenergyinfrastructure, comprising (1) oil/gas/LNG/tanker terminals and (2) nuclear power stations. It discusses planning and adaptation for sea-levelrise and extremeevents. Results indicate 158 major oil/gas/LNG/tanker terminals in the European coastal zone, with 40 % located on the North Sea coast. There are 71 operating nuclear reactors on the coast (37 % of the total of European coastal countries), with further locations planned in the Black, Mediterranean and Baltic Seas. The UK has three times more coastalenergy facilities than any other country. Many north-west European countries who have a high reliance on coastalenergyinfrastructure have a high awareness of sea-levelrise and plan for future change. With long design lives of energy facilities, anticipating short, medium and long-term environmental and climatic change is crucial in the design, future monitoring and maintenance of facilities. Adaptation of coastalinfrastructure is of international importance, so will be an ongoing important issue throughout the 21^{st} century. textcopyright 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
},

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tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1043,

title = {An integrated approach for assessing flood impacts due to future climate and socio-economic conditions and the scope of adaptation in Europe},

author = {M Mokrech and A S Kebede and R J Nicholls and F Wimmer and F Luc},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {128},

pages = {245-260},

chapter = {245},

abstract = {
The Coastal Fluvial Flood (CFFlood) model for assessing coastal and fluvial flood impacts under current and future climate and socio-economic conditions is presented and applied at the European scale. Flood frequency is estimated as a function of river flows, extreme sea levels and estimated defence standards to determine the flood extent and depth. Flood consequences are estimated by combining the latter with information on urban areas, population density and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Climate and socio-economic scenarios and possible adaptation choices are included to analyse future conditions. In 2010, almost 6 % of the European population is estimated to live in the 100 year flood area. The corresponding economic loss is €236 billion, assuming no defences. Estimated flood protection reduces economic damage substantially by 67 to 99 % and the number of people flooded is reduced by 37 to 99 % for the 100 year event. Impact simulations show that future climate and socio-economic conditions may increase flood impacts, especially in coastal areas due to sea-level rise. In contrast, impacts caused by fluvial flooding sometimes decrease, especially in southern and western regions of Europe due to decreases in precipitation and consequent run-off. Under high-end scenarios, flood impacts increase substantially unless there are corresponding adaptation efforts
},

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tppubtype = {article}

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@article{1140,

title = {A quantified system-of-systems modeling framework for robust national infrastructure planning},

author = {A Otto and JW Hall and AJ Hickford and R J Nicholls and D Alderson and S Barr},

url = {http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/368332/},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {IEEE Systems Journal},

abstract = {
National infrastructure (NI) systems (i.e., energy, transport, water, waste, and information and communications technology) provide essential services to the economy and contribute to human well-being. These systems have evolved over centuries, being planned and implemented piecewise, and are mostly managed in isolation from one another. Here, we argue that the growing interconnection between these systems and the convergent challenges ahead (i.e., demographic, technological, and climate change) call for an integrated “system-of-systems” approach to managing NI. Toward that end, we propose a modeling framework for the long-term (to 2100) simulation of NI system performance in a highly uncertain future. The approach is based on the assessment of the performance of infrastructure services in a wide range of possible future conditions. This robust optimization is used to identify cross-sectoral strategies that ensure satisfactory infrastructure performance. We demonstrate the framework using Great Britain&$#$39;s NI as an example.
},

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tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1049,

title = {Risk assessment of estuaries under climate change: Lessons from Western Europe},

author = {S Narayan and R J Nicholls and J Sothmann and N Ohle and D Shuster and P Willems and J Monbaliu and Z Chen and D Felts and J Ge and F Hissel and J Kappenberg},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Southampton},

volume = {87},

pages = {32-49},

chapter = {32},

abstract = {
Climate change with rising sea levels and possible changes in surge levels and wave climate will have a large impact on how we protect our coastal areas and cities. Here the focus is on estuarine locations not only affected by tide and surge propagation, but also potentially influenced by freshwater discharge. Mitigation measures might be diverse ranging from pure hard &$#$39;engineering&$#$39; solutions all the way to significant realignment. The variation in the type/origin and extent of the flood sources greatly influences subsequent risk management measures. At the same time, society is increasingly demanding that we take a holistic view on risk management, embracing and balancing safety, ecological and socio-economic aspects. This requires that all these diverse factors need to be considered together and integrated. In this context, the Source-Pathway-Receptor (SPR) approach offers a powerful holistic tool to investigate changing risk connected to extreme events.The traditional SPR approach with a consecutive treatment of the flood, pathway and receptor is well understood and is widely used in coastal flood risk analysis. Here an enhanced 2D conceptual version of the SPR method is used to better describe the system and to allow flexibility in considering multiple scales, flood sources and pathways. The new approach is demonstrated by three estuarine case studies in western Europe: the Gironde estuary, France; the Dendermonde region in the Scheldt estuary, Belgium; and HafenCity (Hamburg) in the Elbe estuary, Germany. They differ considerably in the surface area considered, in the type of flood sources, and hence also in the SPR configuration. After a brief introduction of the typical characteristics of the three study sites including some lessons learned from past flood protection measures, the differences in application and results of the SPR approach are discussed. Emphasis is on the specific aspects for each study site, but embedded in a generic SPR framework. The resulting generic lessons learned about the flood sources and how this shapes subsequent analysis are transferable to numerous important estuaries worldwide. copy; 2014 Elsevier B.V.
},

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tppubtype = {article}

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@article{1115,

title = {Sea-level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts},

author = {R J Nicholls and S Hanson and J Lowe and RA Warrick and X Lu and A Long},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},

volume = {5},

pages = {129-150},

chapter = {129},

abstract = {
Global-mean sea-level rise will drive impacts and adaptation needs around the world&$#$39;s coasts over the 21st century and beyond. A key element in assessing these issues is the development of scenarios (or plausible futures) of local relative sea-level rise to support impact assessment and adaptation planning. This requires combining a number of different but uncertain components of sea level which can be linked to climatic and non-climatic (i.e., uplift/subsidence of coastal land) factors. A major concern remains about the possibility of significant contributions from the major Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and this must be factored into the assessments, despite the uncertainty. This paper reviews the different mechanisms which contribute to sea-level change and considers a methodology for combining the available data to create relative (or local) sea-level rise scenarios suitable for impact and adaptation assessments across a range of sophistication of analysis. The methods that are developed are pragmatic and consider the different needs of impact assessment, adaptation planning, and long-term decision making. This includes the requirements of strategic decision makers who rightly focus on low probability but high consequence changes and their consequences. Hence plausible high end sea-level rise scenarios beyond the conventional Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) range and which take into account evidence beyond that from the current generation of climate models are developed and their application discussed. Continued review and development of sea-level scenarios is recommended, starting with assimilating the insights of the forthcoming IPCC AR5 assessment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1114,

title = {The AVOID programmetextquoterights new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation},

author = {R J Nicholls and SN Gosling and JR O{textquoteright}Hanley and A Gambhir and Rachel Warren and JA Lowe and N W Arnell and C Hope and PM Berry and S Brown},

year  = {2013},

date = {2013-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {120},

pages = {55-70},

chapter = {55},

abstract = {
Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions.
 
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{714b,

title = {A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA},

author = {A Ganopolski and L McFadden and R J T Klein and A Vafeidis and J Hinkel and R J Nicholls and R S J Tol and Z Wang and J Hamilton and G Boot},

year  = {2013},

date = {2013-01-01},

journal = {Global and Planetary Change},

volume = {111},

pages = {150-158},

chapter = {150},

abstract = {
This paper presents a first assessment of the global effects of climate-induced sea-level rise on the erosion of sandy beaches, and its consequent impacts in the form of land loss and forced migration of people. We consider direct erosion on open sandy coasts and indirect erosion near selected tidal inlets and estuaries, using six global mean sea-level scenarios (in the range of 0.2-0.8m) and six SRES socio-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. Impacts are assessed both without and with adaptation in the form of shore and beach nourishment, based on cost-benefit analysis that includes the benefits of maintaining sandy beaches for tourism. Without nourishment, global land loss would amount to about 6000-17,000km^{2} during the 21st century, leading to 1.6-5.3million people being forced to migrate and migration costs of US$ 300-1000billion (not discounted). Optimal beach and shore nourishment would cost about US$ 65-220billion (not discounted) during the 21st century and would reduce land loss by 8-14%, forced migration by 56-68% and the cost of forced migration by 77-84% (not discounted). The global share of erodible coast that is nourished increases from about 4% in 2000 to 18-33% in 2100, with beach nourishment being 3-4 times more frequent than shore nourishment, reflecting the importance of tourism benefits. In absolute terms, with or without nourishment, large countries with long shorelines appear to have the largest costs, but in relative terms, small island states appear most impacted by erosion. Considerable uncertainty remains due to the limited availability of basic coastal geomorphological data and models on a global scale. Future work should also further explore the effects of beach tourism, including considering sub-national distributions of beach tourists. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{535b,

title = {Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA},

author = {S Brown and R J Nicholls and J Lowe and J Hinkel},

year  = {2013},

date = {2013-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

pages = {1-14},

chapter = {1},

abstract = {
Due to complexities of creating sea-level rise scenarios, impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise are often produced from a limited number of models assuming a global uniform rise in sea level. A greater number of models, including those with a pattern reflecting regional variations would help to assure reliability and a range of projections, indicating where models agree and disagree. This paper determines how nine new patterned-scaled sea-level rise scenarios (plus the uniform and patterned ensemble mean rises) influence global and regional coastal impacts (wetland loss, dry land loss due to erosion and the expected number of people flooded per year by extreme sea levels). The DIVA coastal impacts model was used under an A1B scenario, and assumed defences were not upgraded as conditions evolved. For seven out of nine climate models, impacts occurred at a proportional rate to global sea-level rise. For the remaining two models, higher than average rise in sea level was projected in northern latitudes or around populated coasts thus skewing global impact projections compared with the ensemble global mean. Regional variability in impacts were compared using the ensemble mean uniform and patterned scenarios: The largest relative difference in impacts occurred around the Mediterranean coast, and the largest absolute differences around low-lying populated coasts, such as south, south-east and east Asia. Uniform projections of sea-level rise impacts remain a useful method to determine global impacts, but improved regional scale models of sea-level rise, particularly around semi-enclosed seas and densely populated low-lying coasts will provide improved regional impact projections and a characterisation of their uncertainties. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1580,

title = {Proportionate adaptation},

author = {JW Hall and S Brown and R J Nicholls and N Pidgeon and RT Watson},

url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n12/full/nclimate1749.html?W},

doi = {10.1038/nclimate1749},

year  = {2012},

date = {2012-11-01},

journal = {Nature Climate change},

volume = {2},

pages = {833-834},

chapter = {833},

abstract = {
Adaptation is intended to reduce the harmful impacts of climate change. We expect to incur fewer climate-related losses after adaptation, so we are prepared to bear some cost to obtain the benefits of adaptation. The costs of adaptation take many forms, including the up-front expenses of building infrastructure, installing early warning systems and establishing effective institutions, but also the environmental impacts of some adaptations and the costs of foregoing development opportunities in locations at high risk, such as coastal floodplains. Economic theory suggests that we should be willing to pay for adaptation up to a point at which the marginal benefit of an increment of risk reduction is equal to the cost of buying that increment (Fig. 1).
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{823,

title = {The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century. An application of the DIVA and IMAGE models},

author = {J Hinkel and D P van Vuuren and R J Nicholls and R J T Klein},

isbn = {01650009},

year  = {2012},

date = {2012-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

pages = {1-12},

chapter = {1},

abstract = {
This paper studies the effects of mitigation and adaptation on coastal flood impacts. We focus on a scenario that stabilizes concentrations at 450 ppm-CO _{2}-eq leading to 42 cm of global mean sea-level rise in 1995-2100 (GMSLR) and an unmitigated one leading to 63 cm of GMSLR. We also consider sensitivity scenarios reflecting increased tropical cyclone activity and a GMSLR of 126 cm. The only adaptation considered is upgrading and maintaining dikes. Under the unmitigated scenario and without adaptation, the number of people flooded reaches 168 million per year in 2100. Mitigation reduces this number by factor 1.4, adaptation by factor 461 and both options together by factor 540. The global annual flood cost (including dike upgrade cost, maintenance cost and residual damage cost) reaches US$ 210 billion per year in 2100 under the unmitigated scenario without adaptation. Mitigation reduces this number by factor 1.3, adaptation by factor 5.2 and both options together by factor 7.8. When assuming adaptation, the global annual flood cost relative to GDP falls throughout the century from about 0.06 % to 0.01-0.03 % under all scenarios including the sensitivity ones. From this perspective, adaptation to coastal flood impacts is meaningful to be widely applied irrespective of the level of mitigation. From the perspective of a some less-wealthy and small island countries, however, annual flood cost can amount to several percent of national GDP and mitigation can lower these costs significantly. We conclude that adaptation and mitigation are complimentary policies in coastal areas. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{913,

title = {Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: Population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania},

author = {A S Kebede and R J Nicholls},

isbn = {14363798},

year  = {2012},

date = {2012-01-01},

journal = {Regional Environmental Change},

volume = {12},

pages = {81-94},

chapter = {81},

abstract = {
The paper provides a first quantitative estimate of the potential number of people and value of assets exposed to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The study used an elevation-based geographic information system-analysis based on physical exposure and socio-economic vulnerability under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. It particularly considered a worst-case scenario assuming even if defences (natural and/or man-made) exist, they are subjected to failure under a 100-year flood event. About 8% of Dar es Salaam lies within the low-elevation coastal zone (below the 10 m contour lines). Over 210,000 people could be exposed to a 100-year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 30,000 people in 2005. The asset that could be damaged due to such event is also estimated to rise from US$35 million (2005) to US$10 billion (2070). Results show that socio-economic changes in terms of rapid population growth, urbanisation, economic growth, and their spatial distribution play a significant role over climate change in the overall increase in exposure. However, the study illustrates that steering development away from low-lying areas that are not (or less) threatened by sea-level rise and extreme climates could be an effective strategic response to reduce the future growth in exposure. Enforcement of such policy where informal settlements dominate urbanisation (as in many developing countries) could undoubtedly be a major issue. It should be recognised that this analysis only provides indicative results. Lack of sufficient and good quality observational local climate data (e.g. long-term sea-level measurements), finer-resolution spatial population and asset distribution and local elevation data, and detailed information about existing coastal defences and current protection levels are identified as limitations of the study. As such, it should be seen as a first step towards analysing these issues and needs to be followed by more detailed, city-based analyses. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{915,

title = {Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise: a preliminary case study of Mombasa, Kenya},

author = {A S Kebede and R J Nicholls and S Hanson and M Mokrech},

year  = {2012},

date = {2012-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Coastal Research},

abstract = {
n/a
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{821,

title = {Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: An application of DIVA},

author = {J Hinkel and S Brown and L Exner and R J Nicholls and A Vafeidis and A S Kebede},

isbn = {14363798},

year  = {2012},

date = {2012-01-01},

journal = {Regional Environmental Change},

volume = {12},

pages = {207-224},

chapter = {207},

abstract = {
This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995-2100. We find that in 2100, 16-27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US$ 5 and US$ 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11-36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa&$#$39;s current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US$ 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US$ 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US$ 2 and US$ 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{513,

title = {Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise},

author = {F Bosello and R J Nicholls and J Richards and R Roson and R S J Tol},

isbn = {01650009},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

pages = {1-19},

chapter = {1},

abstract = {
This paper uses two models to examine the direct and indirect costs of sea-level rise for Europe for a range of sea-level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s: (1) the DIVA model to estimate the physical impacts of sea-level rise and the direct economic cost, including adaptation, and (2) the GTAP-EF model to assess the indirect economic implications. Without adaptation, impacts are quite significant with a large land loss and increase in the incidence of coastal flooding. By the end of the century Malta has the largest relative land loss at 12% of its total surface area, followed by Greece at 3.5% land loss. Economic losses are however larger in Poland and Germany ($483 and $391 million, respectively). Coastal protection is very effective in reducing these impacts and optimally undertaken leads to protection levels that are higher than 85% in the majority of European states. While the direct economic impact of sea-level rise is always negative, the final impact on countries&$#$39; economic performances estimated with the GTAP-EF model may be positive or negative. This is because factor substitution, international trade, and changes in investment patterns interact with possible positive implications. The policy insights are (1) while sea-level rise has negative and huge direct economic effects, overall effects on GDP are quite small (max -0.046% in Poland); (2) the impact of sea-level rise is not confined to the coastal zone and sea-level rise indirectly affects landlocked countries as well (Austria for instance loses -0.003% of its GDP); and (3) adaptation is crucial to keep the negative impacts of sea-level rise at an acceptable level. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{863,

title = {Exploring data-related uncertainties in analyses of land area and population in the "Low-Elevation Coastal Zone" (LECZ},

author = {M Iichter and A Vafeidis and R J Nicholls and G Kaiser},

isbn = {07490208},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Coastal Research},

volume = {27},

pages = {757-768},

chapter = {757},

abstract = {
Analyses of land area and population distribution in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) and their potential susceptibility to future sea level rise have been used to derive first-order assessments of areas and populations at risk. Variations in results are shown to be highly dependent on the input datasets. In this paper we explore differences in land and population distribution estimates in the LECZ resulting from the use of three digital elevation models and two population datasets at global, continent, and country levels. Results at the global scale show differences of up to 150% in area estimates, depending on the elevation model used. The differences are most extreme below 1 m elevation and diminish at higher elevation increments. On the continent level, the use of different elevation models produced area estimate differences ranging from more than 1200% at an elevation of 1 m to 160% in the LECZ. Country-level differences are even higher. Similarly, substantial differences in population distribution can arise with the use of different population datasets. Population counts below 1 m elevation range from 1% to 2.3% of the total global population. In the LECZ, estimates vary from 9.2% to 10.9% of the total global population. Differences at continental and country levels are also significant depending on the elevation model and the population dataset used. These large differences indicate that results of such analyses should be regarded with caution and within the context of the methods and materials used. © 2011, the Coastal Education & Research Foundation (CERF).
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{914,

title = {Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania},

author = {A S Kebede and R J Nicholls},

isbn = {14363798},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Regional Environmental Change},

pages = {1-14},

chapter = {1},

abstract = {
The paper provides a first quantitative estimate of the potential number of people and value of assets exposed to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The study used an elevation-based geographic information system-analysis based on physical exposure and socio-economic vulnerability under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. It particularly considered a worst-case scenario assuming even if defences (natural and/or man-made) exist, they are subjected to failure under a 100-year flood event. About 8% of Dar es Salaam lies within the low-elevation coastal zone (below the 10 m contour lines). Over 210,000 people could be exposed to a 100-year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 30,000 people in 2005. The asset that could be damaged due to such event is also estimated to rise from US$35 million (2005) to US$10 billion (2070). Results show that socio-economic changes in terms of rapid population growth, urbanisation, economic growth, and their spatial distribution play a significant role over climate change in the overall increase in exposure. However, the study illustrates that steering development away from low-lying areas that are not (or less) threatened by sea-level rise and extreme climates could be an effective strategic response to reduce the future growth in exposure. Enforcement of such policy where informal settlements dominate urbanisation (as in many developing countries) could undoubtedly be a major issue. It should be recognised that this analysis only provides indicative results. Lack of sufficient and good quality observational local climate data (e.g. long-term sea-level measurements), finer-resolution spatial population and asset distribution and local elevation data, and detailed information about existing coastal defences and current protection levels are identified as limitations of the study. As such, it should be seen as a first step towards analysing these issues and needs to be followed by more detailed, city-based analyses. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{793,

title = {A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes},

author = {S Hanson and R J Nicholls and N Patmore and S Hallegatte and J Corfee-Morlot and C Herweijer and J Chateau},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {140},

number = {1},

chapter = {89},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1409,

title = {Keeping nuclear and other coastal sites safe from climate change},

author = {R Wilby and R J Nicholls and Rachel Warren and HS Wheater and D Clarke and R Dawson},

isbn = {0965089X},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Civil Engineering},

volume = {164},

pages = {129-136},

chapter = {129},

abstract = {
The UK&$#$39;s eight proposed new nuclear power stations are all to be sited on the coast. With a total cradle-to-grave life cycle of at least 160 years, and heightened awareness of inundation risk following the failure of the Fukushima I nuclear plant in Japan this year, Britain&$#$39;s nuclear developers have to show how they plan to cope with the possibility of rising sea levels, higher sea temperatures and more extreme weather events over the next two centuries. This paper describes the adaptation options for new nuclear and other major long-lived coastal developments. Despite uncertainty about climate scenarios for the 2200s, it explains how flexibility of design and safety margins can be incorporated from the outset and, when combined with routine environmental monitoring, how sites can be adaptively managed throughout their life cycles.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1104,

title = {Planning for the impacts of sea level rise},

author = {R J Nicholls},

isbn = {10428275},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Oceanography},

volume = {24},

pages = {144-157},

chapter = {144},

abstract = {
Coastal areas constitute important habitats, and they contain a large and growing population, much of it located in economic centers such as London, New York, Tokyo, Shanghai, Mumbai, and Lagos. The range of coastal hazards includes climate-induced sea level rise, a long-term threat that demands broad response. Global sea levels rose 17 cm through the twentieth century, and are likely to rise more rapidly through the twenty-first century when a rise of more than 1 m is possible. In some locations, these changes may be exacerbated by (1) increases in storminess due to climate change, although this scenario is less certain, and (2) widespread human induced subsidence due to ground fluid withdrawal from, and drainage of, susceptible soils, especially in deltas. Relative sea level rise has a range of potential impacts, including higher extreme sea levels (and flooding), coastal erosion, salinization of surface and ground waters, and degradation of coastal habitats such as wetlands. Without adaptation, large land areas and millions of people could be displaced by sea level rise. Appropriate responses include climate mitigation (a global response) and/or adaptation (a local response). A combination of these strategies appears to be the most appropriate approach to sea level rise regardless of the uncertainty. Adaptation responses can be characterized as (1) protect, (2) accommodate, or (3) retreat. While these adaptation responses could reduce impacts significantly, they will need to be consistent with responses to all coastal hazards, as well as with wider societal and development objectives; hence, an integrated coastal management philosophy is required. In some developed countries, including England and the Netherlands, proactive adaptation plans are already being formulated. Coastal cities worldwide will be a major focus for adaptation efforts because of their concentrations of people and assets. Developing countries will pose adaptation challenges, especially in deltaic areas and small islands, which are the most vulnerable settings. © 2011 by The Oceanography Society. All rights reserved.
 
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1203,

title = {Reconstructing coastal flood occurrence combining sea level and media sources: A case study of the Solent, UK since 1935},

author = {A Ruocco and R J Nicholls and I Haigh and M Wadey},

isbn = {0921030X},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Natural Hazards},

volume = {59},

pages = {1773-1796},

chapter = {1773},

abstract = {
Using newly digitised sea-level data for the ports of Southampton (1935-2005) and Portsmouth (1961-2005) on the south coast of the UK, this study investigates the relationship between the 100 highest sea-level events recorded at the two cities and the incidence of coastal floods in the adjoining Solent region. The main sources of flood data are the daily newspapers The Southern Daily Echo, based in Southampton and The News, based in Portsmouth, supported by a range of local publications and records. The study indicates a strong relationship between the highest measured sea levels and the incidence of coastal floods and highlights the most vulnerable areas to coastal flooding which include parts of Portsmouth, Southampton, Hayling Island, Fareham and Cowes. The most severe flood in the dataset resulted from the storm surge events of 13-17 December 1989 when eight consecutive extreme high waters occurred. The data suggest that while extreme sea-level events are becoming more common, the occurrence of flood events is not increasing. This is attributed to improved flood remediation measures combined with a reduction of storm intensity since the 1980s. However, several recent events of significance were still recorded, particularly 3 November 2005 when Eaststoke on Hayling Island (near Portsmouth) was flooded due to high sea levels combined with energetic swell waves. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{760b,

title = {Rising sea levels in the English Channel 1900 to 2100},

author = {I Haigh and R J Nicholls and N Wells},

isbn = {17417597},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Maritime Engineering},

volume = {164},

pages = {81-92},

chapter = {81},

abstract = {
There is great concern about rising sea levels in the coming century, particularly in terms of extreme sea levels and the increased likelihood of coastal flooding. This is especially true for the south-east coast of England where rising sea levels interact with a growing population and economy. This paper examines how extreme sea levels (excluding waves) have changed through the twentieth century at 16 sites around the English Channel. Extreme sea levels were found to have increased at all 16 sites, but at rates not statistically different from the observed rise in mean sea level. Potential future changes in extreme high sea levels throughout the twenty-first century are estimated for nine UK south coast sites using the 2009 projections from the UK Climate Impacts Programme. For the low, medium and high emissions scenarios (12, 40 and 81 cm total ocean rise, respectively), the exceedence frequency of extreme high sea levels along the south coast would on average increase over the twenty-first century by a factor of 10, 100 and about 1800, respectively. Finally these changes are considered in relation to a large recent surge event in March 2008, which caused significant flooding in the central Channel.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1147,

title = {Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions},

author = {A Pardaens and J Lowe and S Brown and R J Nicholls and D de Gusmao},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},

volume = {38},

chapter = {L12604},

abstract = {Using projections from two coupled climate models (HadCM3C and HadGEM2-AO), we consider the effect on 21st century sea-level rise (SLR) of mitigation policies relative to a scenario of business-as-usual (BAU). Around a third of the global-mean SLR over the century is avoided by a mitigation scenario under which global-mean near surface air temperature stabilises close to the Copenhagen Accord limit of a 2textdegreeC increase. Under BAU (a variant of the A1B scenario) the model-averaged projected SLR for 2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999 is 0.29 m–0.51 m (5%– 95% uncertainties from treatment of land-based ice melt); under mitigation (E1 scenario) it is 0.17 m–0.34 m. This reduction is primarily from reduced thermal expansion. The spatial patterns of regional SLR are fairly dissimilar between the models, but are qualitatively similar across scenarios for a particular model. An impacts model suggests that by the end of the 21st century and without upgrade in defences around 55% of the 84 million additional people flooded per year globally under BAU (from SLR alone) could be avoided under such mitigation. The above projections of SLR follow the methodology of the IPCC Fourth 

Assessment. We have, however, also conducted a sensitivity study of SLR and its impacts where the possibility of accelerated ice sheet dynamics is accounted for.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1110,

title = {Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a textquotedblleftbeyond 4 degree world" in the 21st Century},

author = {R J Nicholls and N Marinova and J Lowe and S Brown and P Vellinga and D de Gusmao and J Hinkel and R S J Tol},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society},

volume = {369},

pages = {161-181},

chapter = {161},

abstract = {
The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4° C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m- the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4° C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed. © 2011 The Royal Society.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{820,

title = {Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA},

author = {J Hinkel and S Brown and L Exner and R J Nicholls and A Vafeidis and A S Kebede},

isbn = {14363798},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Regional Environmental Change},

pages = {1-8},

chapter = {1},

abstract = {
This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995-2100. We find that in 2100, 16-27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US$ 5 and US$ 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11-36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa&$#$39;s current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US$ 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US$ 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US$ 2 and US$ 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1045,

title = {The Tyndall coastal simulator},

author = {M Mokrech and S Hanson and R J Nicholls and J Wolf and M Walkden and C Fontaine and S A Nicholson-Cole and SR Jude and J Leake and P Stansby and A Watkinson and MDA Rounsevell and J Lowe and JW Hall},

isbn = {14000350},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Coastal Conservation},

volume = {15},

pages = {325-335},

chapter = {325},

abstract = {
The threat of sea-level rise and climate change means that coastal managers are being increasingly asked to make long-term assessments of potential coastal impacts and responses. In the UK, shoreline management planning (for flood and erosion hazards) and spatial planning now takes a 100 year perspective. An integrated framework across a wide range of physical and social issues is required for the assessment of coastal impacts and consequently for making sound management decisions. This paper provides an overview of the development of the &$#$39;Tyndall Coastal Simulator&$#$39; including the underlying philosophy that is being followed. The Simulator is based on a series of linked climate models (CM) within a nested framework which recognises three spatial scales: (i) the global (GCM) scale; (ii) the regional scale and (iii) the Simulator Domain (a physiographic unit, such as a coastal sub-cell). Within the nesting, the larger scale provides the boundary conditions for the smaller scale. The models feed into each other and describe a range of relevant processes: sea level, tides, surges, waves, sediment transport and coastal morphology. Different climate scenarios, as well as the range of uncertainty, are being explored. Communication of results is a major issue and the Simulator includes a dedicated GIS-based user interface that allows a wide range of queries of model outputs. The paper demonstrates the possibility of developing an integrated framework that is multi-scale and capable of linking various models in order to simulate complex coastal processes and consequently allowing long-term assessments that are useful for setting future management plans. © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{970b,

title = {Technologies for Climate Change Adaptation: Coastal Erosion and Flooding},

author = {M Linham and R J Nicholls},

year  = {2010},

date = {2010-11-01},

journal = {TNA Guidebook Series},

pages = {150},

publisher = {UNEP Risv r Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development, Roskilde, Denmark},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{762,

title = {Assessing changes in extreme sea levels: Application to the English Channel, 1900-2006},

author = {I Haigh and R J Nicholls and NC Wells},

year  = {2010},

date = {2010-01-01},

journal = {Continental Shelf Research},

volume = {9},

number = {30},

chapter = {1042},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{822,

title = {Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA},

author = {J Hinkel and R J Nicholls and A Vafeidis and R S J Tol and T Avagianou},

year  = {2010},

date = {2010-01-01},

journal = {Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change},

volume = {7},

number = {15},

chapter = {703},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{791,

title = {Capturing Coastal Geomorphological Change within Regional Integrated Assessment: An Outcome-Driven Fuzzy Logic Approach},

author = {S Hanson and R J Nicholls and P Balson and I Brown and J French and T Spencer and W Sutherland},

year  = {2010},

date = {2010-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Coastal Research},

volume = {5},

number = {26},

chapter = {831},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{761b,

title = {A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels},

author = {I Haigh and R J Nicholls and NC Wells},

year  = {2010},

date = {2010-01-01},

journal = {Coastal Engineering},

volume = {9},

number = {57},

chapter = {838},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1297,

title = {The economic impact of substantial sea-level rise},

author = {R S J Tol and D Anthoff and R J Nicholls},

year  = {2010},

date = {2010-01-01},

journal = {Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change},

volume = {4},

number = {15},

chapter = {321},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1111,

title = {Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones},

author = {R J Nicholls and A Cazenave},

year  = {2010},

date = {2010-01-01},

journal = {Science},

volume = {328},

number = {5985},

chapter = {1517},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1020,

title = {Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle},

author = {E McLeod and J Hinkel and A Vafeidis and R J Nicholls and N Harvey and R Salm},

year  = {2010},

date = {2010-01-01},

journal = {Sustainability Science},

volume = {5},

number = {2},

chapter = {207},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1149,

title = {Adaptation to climate change: Assessing the Costs. Investment and Financial Flows to Address Climate Change.},

author = {M Parry and N W Arnell and PM Berry and D Dodman and S Fankhauser and C Hope and S Kovats and R J Nicholls and D Satterthwaite and R Tiffin and T Wheeler and J Lowe and H Hanson},

year  = {2009},

date = {2009-01-01},

journal = {Environment},

volume = {51},

number = {6},

pages = {29-34},

chapter = {29},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{790,

title = {An assessment of the exposure of large port cities to coastal flooding: a global assessment},

author = {S Hanson and R J Nicholls and S Hallegatte and J Corfee-Morlot},

year  = {2009},

date = {2009-01-01},

journal = {LOICZ Imprint},

pages = {3-6},

chapter = {3},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}