James Mason

@article{78d1abd4c24f4540a900a4a2948a0d93,

title = {Are the IMO’s new targets for international shipping compatible with the Paris Climate Agreement?},

author = {Simon Bullock and James Mason and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2023.2293081},

issn = {1469-3062},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-12-22},

journal = {Climate Policy},

publisher = {Earthscan},

abstract = {International shipping is a major contributor to climate change. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has jurisdiction over the sector’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and in July 2023 agreed a revised climate change strategy, setting tightened targets for emissions reductions by 2030, 2040 and 2050. In this perspective article, we analyse the remaining carbon budgets available to the international shipping sector, to assess whether these new targets constitute a sufficient contribution to meeting the overarching Paris Agreement goal to limit global heating to 1.5°C. The new strategy sets both “indicative checkpoints” and more ambitious “strive” targets. Both represent a major advance over the previous strategy, however only the “strive” targets are compatible with the 1.5°C limit. The first “strive” target is for 30% reductions by 2030, just seven years away. To meet this goal, it is imperative that the IMO, nation states and the shipping industry act immediately to accelerate deployment of known technologies and operational practices that improve energy efficiency and cut CO2 emissions in the existing fleet.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{70c6b2b22ada412481d16fa7e6991c48,

title = {Shipping and the Paris climate agreement: a focus on committed emissions},

author = {Simon Bullock and James Mason and John Broderick and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1186/s42500-020-00015-2},

issn = {2524-4469},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-06-12},

journal = {BMC Energy},

volume = {2},

number = {5},

publisher = {BioMed Central Ltd},

abstract = {The concept of “committed emissions” allows us to understand what proportion of the Paris-constrained and rapidly diminishing global carbon dioxide (CO2) budget is potentially taken up by existing infrastructure. Here, this concept isapplied to international shipping, where long-lived assets increase the likelihood for high levels of committed emissions. To date, committed emissions studies have focussed predominantly on the power sector, or on global analyses in which shipping is a small element, with assumptions of asset lifetimes extrapolated from other transport modes. This study analyses new CO2, ship age and scrappage datasets covering the 11,000 ships included in theEuropean Union’s new emissions monitoring scheme (EU MRV), to deliver original insights on the speed at which new and existing shipping infrastructure must be decarbonised. These results, using ship-specific assumptions on assetlifetimes, show higher committed emissions for shipping than previous estimates based on asset lifetimes similar to the road transport sector. The estimated baseline committed emissions value is equivalent to 85–212% of the carbon budget for 1.5 °C that is available for these EU MRV ships, with the central case exceeding the available carbon budget. The sector does, however, have significant potential to reduce this committed emissions figure without premature scrappage through a combination of slow speeds, operational and technical efficiency measures, and the timely retrofitting of ships to use zero-carbon fuels. Here, it is shown that if mitigation measures are applied comprehensively through strong and rapid policy implementation in the 2020s, and if zero-carbon ships are deployed rapidly from 2030, it is still possible for the ships in the EU MRV system to stay within 1.5 °C carbon budgets. Alongside this, as there are wide variations between and within ship types, this new analysis sheds light on opportunities for decision-makers to tailor policy interventions to deliver more effective CO2 mitigation. Delays to appropriately stringent policy implementation would mean additional measures, such as premature scrappage or curbing the growth in shipping tonne-km, become necessary to meet the Paris climate goals.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2266,

title = {Shipping and the Paris climate agreement: a focus on committed emission},

author = {Simon Bullock and A Larkin and J Broderick and J Mason},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-01-01},

journal = {BMC Energy},

abstract = {The concept of textquotedblleftcommitted emissionstextquotedblright allows us to understand what proportion of the Paris-constrained and rapidly diminishing global carbon dioxide (CO2) budget is potentially taken up by existing infrastructure. 



Here, this concept is applied to international shipping, where long-lived assets increase the likelihood for high levels of committed emissions. To date, committed emissions studies have focussed predominantly on the power sector, or on global analyses in which shipping is a small element, with assumptions of asset lifetimes extrapolated from other transport modes. 



This study analyses new CO2, ship age and scrappage datasets covering the 11,000 ships included in the European Uniontextquoterights new emissions monitoring scheme (EU MRV), to deliver original insights on the speed at which new and existing shipping infrastructure must be decarbonised. These results, using ship-specific assumptions on asset lifetimes, show higher committed emissions for shipping than previous estimates based on asset lifetimes similar to the road transport sector. 



The estimated baseline committed emissions value is equivalent to 85–212% of the carbon budget for 1.5 textdegreeC that is available for these EU MRV ships, with the central case exceeding the available carbon budget. The sector does, however, have significant potential to reduce this committed emissions figure without premature scrappage through a combination of slow speeds, operational and technical efficiency measures, and the timely retrofitting of ships to use zero-carbon fuels. Here, it is shown that if mitigation measures are applied comprehensively through strong and rapid policy implementation in the 2020s, and if zero-carbon ships are deployed rapidly from 2030, it is still possible for the ships in the EU MRV system to stay within 1.5 textdegreeC carbon budgets. 



Alongside this, as there are wide variations between and within ship types, this new analysis sheds light on opportunities for decision-makers to tailor policy interventions to deliver more effective CO2 mitigation. Delays to appropriately stringent policy implementation would mean additional measures, such as premature scrappage or curbing the growth in shipping tonne-km, become necessary to meet the Paris climate goals.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1e6862643af64042978bcfbeab09ffd1,

title = {Mitigating stochastic uncertainty from weather routing for ships with wind propulsion},

author = {James Mason and Alice Larkin and Alejandro Gallego-Schmid},

doi = {10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.114674},

issn = {0029-8018},

journal = {Ocean Engineering},

volume = {281},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Reducing the shipping sector's contribution to climate change requires urgent emission reductions this decade. Both weather routing and wind propulsion offer immediate solutions, where combining sails with efficient routing amplifies the performance of each technology. However, while large emission savings are theoretically available, the impact of stochastic uncertainty from wind forecasts is unknown. Here, we present a novel approach that exploits fuel consumption calculations from over a thousand departures across three routes to characterise stochastic uncertainty. We show that routes with ideal wind conditions and long voyage times are most sensitive to uncertain forecast inputs, reducing savings from Flettner rotors and weather routing by up to 44% when a priori weather routing strategies are used. This paper further shows how an adaptive weather routing strategy can be used as an accurate prediction tool to reduce uncertainty on all routes investigated, reliably amplifying carbon savings from Flettner rotors by between 1.16 and 2.48 times typical great circle route savings. Overall, this paper provides greater assurance around the previously estimated carbon savings that serves to strengthen confidence in a wind-assisted decarbonisation strategy and its potential to provide essential emission reductions this decade.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{b3e3a88dbcd542e19fdfb44128e9081d,

title = {The urgent case for stronger climate targets for international shipping},

author = {Simon Bullock and James Mason and Alice Larkin},

issn = {1469-3062},

journal = {Climate Policy},

publisher = {Earthscan},

abstract = {International shipping is overwhelmingly reliant on fossil fuels, with annual carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to a country the size of Germany. Actions to reduce its emissions are therefore an important element of global efforts to combat climate change. This article re-assesses the international shipping sector’s initial greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets against the Paris Agreement goals. The analysis is based upon the latest data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Maritime Organization (IMO) and uses the concept of carbon budgets to evaluate proportionate 1.5°C emissions pathways for the sector. The consequences of the resulting Paris-compliant pathways for shipping’s existing mitigation targets and strategy are discussed. The article concludes that significantly stronger short- and longer-term targets need to be set for the sector to be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s goals: 34% reductions on 2008 emissions levels by 2030, and zero emissions before 2050, compared with the sector’s existing target of a 50% cut in CO by 2050. Crucially, strengthening the target by the IMO’s strategy revision date of 2023 is imperative. The long asset lifetimes of ships and shipping infrastructure limit the speed of transition such that a delay of even a few years will dictate an untenable rate of decarbonization and increased risk of pushing the already challenging Paris goals out of reach},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}