Tyndall Centre Publications

@article{4ab247ff003342e2b514fcbff3877b0c,

title = {Evaluating bundles of interventions to prevent peat-fires in Indonesia},

author = {Rachel Carmenta and Aiora Zabala and Bambang Trihadmojo and David Gaveau and Mohammad Agus Salim and Jacob Phelps},

doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102154},

issn = {0959-3780},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-03-01},

journal = {Global Environmental Change},

volume = {67},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {The carbon-dense peatlands of Indonesia are a landscape of global importance undergoing rapid land-use change. Here, peat drained for agricultural expansion increases the risk of large-scale uncontrolled fires. Several solutions to this complex environmental, humanitarian and economic crisis have been proposed, such as forest protection measures and agricultural support. However, numerous programmes have largely failed. Bundles of interventions are proposed as promising strategies in integrated approaches, but what policy interventions to combine and how to align such bundles to local conditions remains unclear. We evaluate the impact of two types of interventions and of their combinations, in reducing fire occurrence through driving behavioural change: incentives (i.e. rewards that are conditional on environmental performance), and deterrents (e.g. sanction, soliciting concerns for health). We look at the impact of these interventions in 10 villages with varying landscape and fire-risk contexts in Sumatra, Indonesia. A private-led implementation of a standardised programme allows us to study outcome variability through a natural experiment design. We conduct a systematic cross-case comparison to identify the most effective combinations of interventions, using two-step qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and geospatial and socio-economic survey data (n = 303). We analysed the combined influence of proximate conditions (interventions, e.g. fear of sanction) and remote ones (context; e.g. extent of peat soil) on fire outcomes. We show how, depending on the level of risk in the pre-existing context, certain bundles of interventions are needed to succeed. We found that, despite the programme being framed as rewards-based, people were not responding to the reward alone. Rather sanctions and soliciting concern appeared central to fire prevention, raising important equity implications. Our results contribute to the emerging global interest in peat fire mitigation, and the rapidly developing literature on PES performance.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{86e6831ac86c4f458ef2798e82c3bc26,

title = {Conservation tillage and soil health: lessons from a 5-year UK farm trial (2013-2018)},

author = {Richard Cooper and Zanist Hama-Aziz and Kevin Hiscock and Andrew Lovett and Emilie Vrain and Stephen Dugdale and Gilla Sunnenberg and Trudie Dockerty and Poul Hovesen and Lister Noble},

doi = {10.1016/j.still.2020.104648},

issn = {0167-1987},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-08-01},

journal = {Soil and Tillage Research},

volume = {202},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {In 2010, the UK government launched the Demonstration Test Catchments (DTC) platform to evaluate the extent to which on-farm mitigation measures can cost-effectively reduce the impacts of agricultural water pollution on river ecology whilst maintaining food production capacity. In this paper, we compare the impacts on soil health of two types of conservation tillage (direct drill and shallow non-inversion) against conventional mouldboard ploughing after five years (2013–2018) of adoption within the River Wensum DTC. Across the 143 ha conservation tillage trial area, temporal changes in the physical, chemical and biological condition of the soils were examined through the analysis of 324 soil samples, whilst the impacts on soil water chemistry were assessed through the analysis of 1176 samples of subsurface field drainage. Riverine water pollution was also explored through high-resolution (30 min) hydrochemistry measurements generated by an automated, in-situ bankside monitoring station located 650 m downstream of the trial area. Results revealed that conservation tillage did not significantly alter the soil physical, chemical or biological condition relative to conventional ploughing during the first five years. In addition, conservation tillage did not reduce nutrient leaching losses into field drainage and did not significantly impact upon river water quality, despite the trial area covering 20% of the catchment. Economically, however, conservation tillage yielded net profit margins 13% higher than conventional ploughing after five years of practice due to a combination of operational efficiency savings and improved yields. Overall, the results of this study demonstrate that conservation tillage alone is ineffective at improving the short-term environmental sustainability of farming practices in this lowland intensive arable setting and indicates that a broader, integrated approach to conservation agriculture is required incorporating aspects of cover cropping, crop rotations and precision farming techniques. The improvements in farm business performance do, however, demonstrate land managers can make important financial gains by converting to a conservation tillage system.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{94cc4486250143519f2bfdf1b340ae36,

title = {Historical Trajectories of Disaster Risk in Dominica},

author = {Jennifer Barclay and Emily Wilkinson and Carole White and Clare Shelton and Johanna Forster and Roger Few and Irene Lorenzoni and George Woolhouse and Claire Jowitt and Harriette Stone and Lennox Honychurch},

doi = {10.1007/s13753-019-0215-z},

issn = {2095-0055},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-06-01},

journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Science},

volume = {10},

number = {2},

pages = {149--165},

publisher = {Springer},

abstract = {The calamitous consequences of 2017 Hurricane Maria for the Caribbean island of Dominica highlighted the acute and increasing susceptibility of the region to disasters. Despite increasing international attention to disaster risk reduction, recovery from hazard events can be especially lengthy and difficult for small island developing states. In this article, we build on existing understandings of disaster risk as a physical and social condition, showing that historical processes are fundamental to understanding how conditions of risk emerge and persist over time. We take an integrated approach to analyzing the drivers of risk accumulation, using the example of Dominica, where processes set in motion during the colonial period have shaped the location of people and assets, the degree to which they might be harmed, the societal repercussions of that harm and the prospects for recovery. We focus on the underlying economic vulnerabilities and physical exposure to hazards created by agricultural, economic, and social practices, and successive disaster responses that have constrained recovery. Uncovering these historical drivers and persistent issues, elucidates lessons for pursuing a more resilient development trajectory, including through the promotion of economic restructuring and diversification, and land reform.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2132,

title = {Over-pumping of groundwater in Irbid governorate, northern Jordan: a conceptual model to analyze the effects of urbanization and agricultural activities on groundwater levels and salinity},

author = {T Odeh and AH Mohammad and H Hussen and M Ismail and T Almomani},

doi = {10.1007/s12665-018-8031-0},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Earth Sciences},

volume = {78},

abstract = {
The governorate of Irbid has the highest population density in Jordan and most of its water demand is supplied by groundwater. Both natural population growth and waves of migrations increased the number of its inhabitants during the last 40 years. This population growth has increased: the amount of land covered by urban and agricultural development over this time period; and the groundwater demand by 227% due to increasing of drinking water demand, urban water usage and for agricultural irrigation. As a result of the continuous pumping, groundwater levels have decreased by about 70 m and the salinity of pumped groundwater has increased by about 1000 textmuS/cm in some areas. A conceptual model to account for the observed changes in groundwater levels and salinity has been developed through an integrated approach of remote sensing and geographic information systems. textcopyright 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1753,

title = {An Integrated Approach to Assess the Resilience of Future Electricity Infrastructure Networks to Climate Hazards},

author = {G Fu and S Wilkinson and R Dawson and H J Fowler and CG Kilsby and M Panteli and PL Mancarella},

doi = {10.1109/JSYST.2017.2700791},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

journal = {IEEE Systems Journal},

volume = {99},

pages = {1-12},

chapter = {1},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ef27c054ea624c268c5ecc372cd88fc9,

title = {Spatiotemporal patterns and source attribution of nitrogen load in a river basin with complex pollution sources},

author = {Xiaoying Yang and Qun Liu and Guangtao Fu and Yi He and Xingzhang Luo and Zheng Zheng},

doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2016.02.040},

issn = {0043-1354},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-05-01},

journal = {Water Research},

volume = {94},

pages = {187–199},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Environmental problems such as eutrophication caused by excessive nutrient discharge are global challenges. There are complex pollution sources of nitrogen (N) discharge in many river basins worldwide. Knowledge of its pollution sources and their respective load contributions is essential to developing effective N pollution control strategies. N loads from all known anthropogenic pollution sources in the Upper Huai River basin of China were simulated with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The performances of SWAT driven by daily and hourly rainfall inputs were assessed and it was found that the one driven by hourly rainfall outperformed the one driven by daily rainfall in simulating both total nitrogen (TN) and ammonia nitrogen (NH4-N) loads. The hourly SWAT model was hence used to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of TN and NH4-N loads and their source attributions. TN load exhibited significant seasonal variations with the largest in summer and the smallest in spring. Despite its declining proportion of contribution downstream, crop production remained the largest contributor of TN load followed by septic tanks, concentrated animal feedlot operations (CAFOs), municipal sewage treatment plants, industries, and scattered animal feedlot operations (SAFOs). There was much less seasonal variation in NH4-N load. CAFOs remained the largest source of NH4-N load throughout the basin, while contributions from industries and municipal sewage treatment plants were more evident downstream. Our study results suggest the need to shift the focus of N load reduction from “end-of-pipe” sewage treatment to an integrated approach emphasizing stakeholder involvement and source prevention.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1721,

title = {Spatiotemporal patterns and source attribution of nitrogen load in a river basin with complex pollution sources},

author = {Xiaoying Yang and Qun Liu and Guangtao Fu and Yi He and Xingzhang Luo and Zheng Zheng},

doi = {DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2016.02.040},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

abstract = {
Environmental problems such as eutrophication caused by excessive nutrient discharge are global challenges. There are complex pollution sources of nitrogen (N) discharge in many river basins worldwide. Knowledge of its pollution sources and their respective load contributions is essential to developing effective N pollution control strategies. N loads from all known anthropogenic pollution sources in the Upper Huai River basin of China were simulated with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The performances of SWAT driven by daily and hourly rainfall inputs were assessed and it was found that the one driven by hourly rainfall outperformed the one driven by daily rainfall in simulating both total nitrogen (TN) and ammonia nitrogen (NH4-N) loads. The hourly SWAT model was hence used to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of TN and NH4-N loads and their source attributions. TN load exhibited significant seasonal variations with the largest in summer and the smallest in spring. Despite its declining proportion of contribution downstream, crop production remained the largest contributor of TN load followed by septic tanks, concentrated animal feedlot operations (CAFOs), municipal sewage treatment plants, industries, and scattered animal feedlot operations (SAFOs). There was much less seasonal variation in NH4-N load. CAFOs remained the largest source of NH4-N load throughout the basin, while contributions from industries and municipal sewage treatment plants were more evident downstream. Our study results suggest the need to shift the focus of N load reduction from "end-of-pipe" sewage treatment to an integrated approach emphasizing stakeholder involvement and source prevention. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1043,

title = {An integrated approach for assessing flood impacts due to future climate and socio-economic conditions and the scope of adaptation in Europe},

author = {M Mokrech and A S Kebede and R J Nicholls and F Wimmer and F Luc},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {128},

pages = {245-260},

chapter = {245},

abstract = {
The Coastal Fluvial Flood (CFFlood) model for assessing coastal and fluvial flood impacts under current and future climate and socio-economic conditions is presented and applied at the European scale. Flood frequency is estimated as a function of river flows, extreme sea levels and estimated defence standards to determine the flood extent and depth. Flood consequences are estimated by combining the latter with information on urban areas, population density and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Climate and socio-economic scenarios and possible adaptation choices are included to analyse future conditions. In 2010, almost 6 % of the European population is estimated to live in the 100 year flood area. The corresponding economic loss is €236 billion, assuming no defences. Estimated flood protection reduces economic damage substantially by 67 to 99 % and the number of people flooded is reduced by 37 to 99 % for the 100 year event. Impact simulations show that future climate and socio-economic conditions may increase flood impacts, especially in coastal areas due to sea-level rise. In contrast, impacts caused by fluvial flooding sometimes decrease, especially in southern and western regions of Europe due to decreases in precipitation and consequent run-off. Under high-end scenarios, flood impacts increase substantially unless there are corresponding adaptation efforts
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{772,

title = {Assessing the effectiveness of non-structural flood management measures in the Thames Estuary under conditions of socio-economic and environmental change},

author = {JW Hall and N Roche and R Dawson and T Ball and J Werritty and A Werritty},

isbn = {09593780},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Global Environmental Change},

volume = {21},

pages = {628-646},

chapter = {628},

abstract = {
Risk analysis and appraisal of the benefits of structural flood risk management measures such as embankments is well established. Here, a method to quantify, over extended timescales, the effectiveness of non-structural measures such as land use spatial planning, insurance and flood resilient construction is presented. The integrated approach couples socio-economic and climate change scenarios with long term land use modelling and flood risk analysis to generate maps and time series of expected annual damages. The analysis has been applied on a case study in the Thames Estuary in the UK. Stakeholders helped develop a number of scenarios that might lead to substantial changes in existing planning and insurance policies in the UK. The effectiveness of these changes was analysed and showed the substantial benefits in terms of reduction of future flood risks that are achievable with changes in planning policy, financial incentives and resilient property construction in the floodplain. Moreover, the reward can be increased through earlier action. Subsequently, the benefits of a range of policies are explored under the UK Foresight socio-economic scenarios. Different structural and non structural flood management interventions are tested and the results demonstrate that despite the potential for large increases in flood risk in the Thames Estuary, in all scenarios substantial flood risk reductions are possible. The effectiveness of non-structural measures is however sensitive to socio-economic changes and governance arrangements. The analysis described here will help to identify portfolios of non-structural and structural options that are robust to uncertainties. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
 
},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}