Tyndall Centre Publications
The following database includes publications by researchers exclusively from the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the University of Manchester.
Tilsted, Joachim Peter; Mah, Alice; Nielsen, Tobias Dan; Finkill, Guy; Bauer, Fredric
Petrochemical transition narratives: Selling fossil fuel solutions in a decarbonizing world Journal Article
In: Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 94, 0000, ISSN: 2214-6296, (Funding Information: To reinforce this narrative, proponents often reference life cycle assessment studies that promote the embedded emissions benefits of plastics compared to alternatives [84,89]. For example, a report sponsored by the American Chemistry Council [90] finds that emissions related to plastic packaging could increase significantly if all plastic packaging in the US was replaced by alternative materials. Claiming benefits by referencing a benchmark with higher emissions is a relative rather than absolute assessment, meaning that the chosen benchmark matters a great deal to this line of reasoning (for example, one could imagine “reduced use” reference scenario). Moreover, this argument does not say anything about whether the unit of analysis performs “well enough” given ecological limits [91], a tendency that is mirrored in corporate sustainability reporting more generally [92]. Quantifying “avoided emissions” requires consistency, or else it results in incoherence [93]. For example, in the quote above, Linde makes it accounting in reference to a hypothetical scenario in which customers do not apply Linde products, seemingly assuming that no relevant substitutes exist. In attributing these reductions to Linde, double counting occurs when their customers report lower direct emissions. Use of “creative accounting” is not unique but rather a widespread tendency in the industry, especially in relation to life cycle assessment [41].The research was supported by funding from the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation and the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (Mistra) through the “STEPS – Sustainable Plastics and Transition Pathways” programme. Funding Information: The research was supported by funding from the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation and the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (Mistra) through the "STEPS – Sustainable Plastics and Transition Pathways" programme. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s)).
@article{7ce534f168b1473abc209b787da8ada6b,
title = {Petrochemical transition narratives: Selling fossil fuel solutions in a decarbonizing world},
author = {Joachim Peter Tilsted and Alice Mah and Tobias Dan Nielsen and Guy Finkill and Fredric Bauer},
doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2022.102880},
issn = {2214-6296},
journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},
volume = {94},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Being integral to the fossil-based energy order and as a key driver of multiple and intersecting ecological crises, the petrochemical industry faces increasing pressures to transform. This paper examines how major petrochemical companies navigate these pressures. Drawing from literatures on discursive power, narratives, and neoGramscian political economy, we introduce the concept of narrative realignment as a nuanced iteration of corporate discursive power that reframes problems of and solutions to green transitions. Specifically, we identify and explore common transition-related narratives, analysing climate and sustainability communications from the largest producers in the petrochemical sector. We argue that these strategic narratives portray the petrochemical industry as key to a successful transition and fend off criticisms by reducing them to misunderstandings. This framing works to reduce pressures for deep mitigation while repositioning the industry as part of the solution. Building on these findings, we demonstrate how petrochemical transition narratives relate to but also diverge from the position of fossil fuel extractors. Despite relying on fossil feedstock and being solidly placed in the fossil economy, petrochemical majors increasingly focus on repositioning themselves proactively as transition enablers. The argument illustrates the work of downstream actors to legitimize the existing energy order.},
note = {Funding Information: To reinforce this narrative, proponents often reference life cycle assessment studies that promote the embedded emissions benefits of plastics compared to alternatives [84,89]. For example, a report sponsored by the American Chemistry Council [90] finds that emissions related to plastic packaging could increase significantly if all plastic packaging in the US was replaced by alternative materials. Claiming benefits by referencing a benchmark with higher emissions is a relative rather than absolute assessment, meaning that the chosen benchmark matters a great deal to this line of reasoning (for example, one could imagine “reduced use” reference scenario). Moreover, this argument does not say anything about whether the unit of analysis performs “well enough” given ecological limits [91], a tendency that is mirrored in corporate sustainability reporting more generally [92]. Quantifying “avoided emissions” requires consistency, or else it results in incoherence [93]. For example, in the quote above, Linde makes it accounting in reference to a hypothetical scenario in which customers do not apply Linde products, seemingly assuming that no relevant substitutes exist. In attributing these reductions to Linde, double counting occurs when their customers report lower direct emissions. Use of “creative accounting” is not unique but rather a widespread tendency in the industry, especially in relation to life cycle assessment [41].The research was supported by funding from the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation and the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (Mistra) through the “STEPS – Sustainable Plastics and Transition Pathways” programme. Funding Information: The research was supported by funding from the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation and the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (Mistra) through the "STEPS – Sustainable Plastics and Transition Pathways" programme. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s)},
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Gough, Clair; Palmer, J; Haszeldine, S; Mander, Sarah
The UKERC/UKCCSC carbon capture and storage roadmap Book
No publisher name, 0000.
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title = {The UKERC/UKCCSC carbon capture and storage roadmap},
author = {Clair Gough and J Palmer and S Haszeldine and Sarah Mander},
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Tarpani, Raphael; Schmid, Alejandro Gallego
Urban water supply and life cycle assessment Book Chapter
In: Bolognesi, Thomas; Pinto, Francisco Silva; Farrelly, Megan (Ed.): Routledge Handbook on Urban Water Governance, pp. 64–77, Routledge, United Kingdom, 0000, ISBN: 9780367523534.
@inbook{018ef62be6ba460f890e14834fc2543bb,
title = {Urban water supply and life cycle assessment},
author = {Raphael Tarpani and Alejandro Gallego Schmid},
editor = {Thomas Bolognesi and Francisco Silva Pinto and Megan Farrelly},
isbn = {9780367523534},
booktitle = {Routledge Handbook on Urban Water Governance},
pages = {64–77},
publisher = {Routledge},
address = {United Kingdom},
abstract = {Guaranteeing drinking water access to populations living in urban centres is expected to become a significant challenge. This is due to threats such as climate change, deterioration of freshwater sources, and rapid urbanization. In order to minimize this negative prospect, urban centres should begin to update their water supply infrastructure, improve water distribution practices, or even implement the use of techniques such as desalination, advanced treatments for wastewater reuse, and rainwater harvesting.Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a commonly used tool to evaluate the environmental impacts, enable better decision-making among stakeholders and inform research on the topic. LCAs promote the evaluation of the environmental performance of systems, products, or services throughout their entire life cycle, translating inputs and outputs of resources, materials, energy, emissions, and waste into potential environmental impacts. However, the LCA of urban water supplies should be performed considering specific guidelines and the particularities of the local geography and water-related infrastructure. Finally LCAs should report a detailed interpretation of the results following a consistent framework. In this way, the outcomes from an LCA study can indicate best practices, interventions, or modifications necessary to decrease the environmental burdens associated with urban water supplies.},
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ricardo zepon Tarpani, Raphael; Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro
Environmental impacts of a digital health and well-being service in elderly living schemes Journal Article
In: Cleaner Environmental Systems, vol. 12, 0000, ISSN: 2666-7894.
@article{f7c76314e6e6486993cad096075a2c8eb,
title = {Environmental impacts of a digital health and well-being service in elderly living schemes},
author = {Raphael ricardo zepon Tarpani and Alejandro Gallego-Schmid},
doi = {10.1016/j.cesys.2023.100161},
issn = {2666-7894},
journal = {Cleaner Environmental Systems},
volume = {12},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Over the past decade, digitalization and digital technologies (DTs) have undergone rapid evolution, transforming how goods and services are produced and consumed in modern societies. Health and well-being sectors have embraced this digital revolution. Besides the economic and social benefits, digitalization can significantly enhance patient diagnostics and prognostics while improving overall service efficiency. To ensure long-term sustainability, it is important to assess and reduce the environmental impacts of digital services. This article examines the life cycle impacts of a digital service implemented in three elderly living schemes (ELSs) located in the United Kingdom (UK). The digital service consists of six electronic devices (EDs) that enable communication between residents, visitors, staff, and offsite monitoring (OM). The equipment is connected using Power over Ethernet (PoE) technology, which includes smart network switch and uninterruptable power supply units. The digital service's global warming potential (GWP) was estimated at 718–741 kg CO2 eq./resident for two of the ELSs and 1509 kg CO2 eq./resident for a third ELS, considering a service period of 20 years. The reason for the significant difference is the greater use of air conditioner (A/C) units to cool down server rooms and fewer residents in the third scheme. The consumption of electricity was found to be the main contributor to most of the environmental impacts. However, in certain categories such as mineral resource scarcity, freshwater eutrophication, and freshwater and marine ecotoxicity potentials, printed circuit boards (PCBs) were the main contributors. A sensitivity analysis considering different national electricity mixes demonstrated that the French electricity grid promoted the reduction in 14 impact categories, whereas the German, Italian, Spanish and Japanese grids increased on average impacts on most categories. Another sensitivity analysis demonstrates that reducing A/C unit running time by 28% resulted in an average impact reduction of 5.5%, becoming equivalent to the results obtained for the French electricity grid. Finally, extending the expected lifespan of electronic equipment by 20% yielded the highest average decrease in environmental impacts (8.1%). While digitalization has the potential to enhance patient healthcare and reduce costs, it is crucial to carefully assess its environmental impacts and implement mitigation strategies to ensure sustainable development in the healthcare sector.},
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Clair, Rebecca St.; Pappas, Dimitrios; Fletcher, Carly; Sharmina, Maria
Resilient or environmentally friendly? Both are possible when seafood businesses prepare for long-term risks Journal Article
In: Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 408, 0000, ISSN: 0959-6526.
@article{b92d324f6a054126be6457bedf5f3d5bb,
title = {Resilient or environmentally friendly? Both are possible when seafood businesses prepare for long-term risks},
author = {Rebecca St. Clair and Dimitrios Pappas and Carly Fletcher and Maria Sharmina},
doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137045},
issn = {0959-6526},
journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},
volume = {408},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {To ensure sustainable seafood production for future generations, seafood businesses must be resilient in the face of future shocks and stresses. Recent research suggests that by increasing alignment with principles of circular economy such as eliminating waste and regenerating natural environments, seafood companies may be able to improve their general resilience (i.e. resilience to unforeseen disruptions). Research presented here empirically explores potential links between circular economy, risk mitigation and resilience through a survey and workshops with seafood businesses in the United Kingdom. We found that many of the seafood companies participating in our research are actively implementing a range of circular economy actions such as recycling materials and minimising the use of single-use plastics. When identifying specific risks, businesses tended to adopt short-term mitigation measures that were less likely than longer-term measures to be aligned with circular economy principles. While businesses felt confident about their ability to adapt to and survive future risks, a focus on short-term risk mitigation might reduce their capacity to plan for longer-term risks. An inability to identify and prepare for longer-term risks may also impede businesses’ ability to increase their resilience to unforeseen disruptions and lock companies into a reactive, rather than a capacity-building cycle of risk mitigation.},
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Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah
CCS industrial clusters: building a social licence to operate Journal Article
In: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 0000, ISSN: 1750-5836.
@article{04e9c079d81f48cbb31dc508ad2cfe70b,
title = {CCS industrial clusters: building a social licence to operate},
author = {Clair Gough and Sarah Mander},
issn = {1750-5836},
journal = {International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {This paper explores the opportunities for, and progress in, establishing a social licence to operate (SLO) for CCS in industrial clusters in the UK, focusing on the perspectives of key stakeholders. The evolution of narratives and networks relating to geographical clusters as niches for CCS in industrial decarbonisation is evaluated in relation to seven pillars supporting SLO. Evidence is drawn from a combination of cluster mapping, documentary analysis and stakeholder interviews to identify the wider contexts underpinning industrial decarbonisation, stakeholder networks, interaction and communication, critical narratives, the conditions for establishing trust and confidence, different scales of social licence and maintaining a SLO. The delivery of a sustainable industrial decarbonisation strategy will depend on multiple layers of social licence involving discourses at different scales and, potentially, for different systems (heat, transport, different industrial processes). Despite setbacks as a result of funding cancellations and changes to government policy, the UK is positioned to be at the forefront of CCS deployment. While there is a high ambition and a strong narrative from government of the urgency to accelerate projects involving CCS, clear coordinated strategy and funding frameworks are necessary to build confidence that UK policy is both compatible with net zero and economically viable.},
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Bows-Larkin, Alice; Wood, Ruth; Bows, Alice; Anderson, Kevin L
How can CO2 Emissions from Aviation be allocated to Regional Administrations for Monitoring and Target Setting? Conference
0000, (European Transport Conference ; Conference date: 06-10-2008 Through 08-10-2008).
@conference{8de65adc033d4c5986491af9c118e71fb,
title = {How can CO2 Emissions from Aviation be allocated to Regional Administrations for Monitoring and Target Setting?},
author = {Alice Bows-Larkin and Ruth Wood and Alice Bows and Kevin L Anderson},
note = {European Transport Conference ; Conference date: 06-10-2008 Through 08-10-2008},
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Bows-Larkin, Alice; Wood, F. R.; Barrett, J.; Dawkins, E.; Mander, S.; McLachlan, C.; Roeder, M; Scott, K
The development of scenarios to examine the role of technology change and consumers in delivering cumulative emission reductions and adapting to climate change impacts under a 2 and 4C future Proceedings Article
In: host publication, 0000, (International Society for Industrial Ecology ; Conference date: 09-06-2011 Through 11-06-2011).
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title = {The development of scenarios to examine the role of technology change and consumers in delivering cumulative emission reductions and adapting to climate change impacts under a 2 and 4C future},
author = {Alice Bows-Larkin and F. R. Wood and J. Barrett and E. Dawkins and S. Mander and C. McLachlan and M Roeder and K Scott},
booktitle = {host publication},
note = {International Society for Industrial Ecology ; Conference date: 09-06-2011 Through 11-06-2011},
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Sharmina, Maria
Hungarian green investment scheme: a game theoretic approach Book
1st, LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, Germany, 0000, ISBN: 978-3838357119.
@book{cec8e21103bb408b8e84c0779f084fd6b,
title = {Hungarian green investment scheme: a game theoretic approach},
author = {Maria Sharmina},
isbn = {978-3838357119},
publisher = {LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing},
address = {Germany},
edition = {1st},
abstract = {Game theoretic concepts are widely used in the environmental area. However, application of game theory to the field of energy efficiency, particularly in the buildings sector, remains largely unexplored. This book aims to prove that game theory might be instrumental in finding the strategies to turn panel block constructions into energy efficient buildings. The research is based on the idea that a well-designed Green Investment Scheme (to be applied in Hungary), or a GIS, is an effective funding mechanism that can motivate a building’s dwellers to opt for an energy efficient renovation of their house. To support this hypothesis, two game theoretic models are developed that present interactions, first, between dwellers within one building and, second, between the government and households. Results suggest a GIS is an efficient instrument of national policy only under certain conditions. The book might be useful for researchers in game theory and energy area, policy makers in environmental departments and construction industry representatives.},
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Freites, Samira Garcia; Welfle, Andrew; Lea-Langton, Amanda; Thornton, Patricia; Gilbert, Paul
The potential of coffee stems gasification to provide bioenergy for coffee farms: a case study in the Colombian coffee sector Journal Article
In: Biomass Conversion and Biorefinery, pp. 1–16, 0000, ISSN: 2190-6823.
@article{978c47abf0a74ffbadb8d88dbd5e41fcb,
title = {The potential of coffee stems gasification to provide bioenergy for coffee farms: a case study in the Colombian coffee sector},
author = {Samira Garcia Freites and Andrew Welfle and Amanda Lea-Langton and Patricia Thornton and Paul Gilbert},
doi = {10.1007/s13399-019-00480-8},
issn = {2190-6823},
journal = {Biomass Conversion and Biorefinery},
pages = {1–16},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
abstract = {The coffee industry constitutes an important part of the global economy. Developing countries produce over 90% of world coffee production, generating incomes for around 25 million smallholder farmers. The scale of this industry poses a challenge with the generation of residues along with the coffee cultivation and processing chain. Coffee stems, obtained after pruning of coffee trees, are one of those abundant and untapped resources in the coffee supply chain. Their high lignocellulosic content, the low calorific value ranging between 17.5 and 18 MJ kg−1and the low ash content make them a suitable solid fuel for thermochemical conversion, such as gasification. This research evaluates the feasibility of using these residues in small-scale downdraft gasifiers coupled to internal combustion engines for power and low-grade heat generation, using process modelling and the Colombian coffee sector as a case study. The producer gas properties(5.6MJNm−3) and the gasifier’s performance characteristics suggest that this gas could be utilized for power generation. A cogeneration system efficiency of 45.6% could be attainable when the system’s low-grade heat is recovered for external applications, like in the coffee drying stage. An analysis of the energy demand and coffee stems availability within the Colombian coffee sector shows that the biomass production level in medium- to large-scale coffee farms is well matched to their energy demands, offering particularly attractive opportunities to deploy this bioenergy system. This work assesses the feasibility of providing coffee stem–sourced low-carbon energy for global coffee pro-duction at relevant operating scales in rural areas.},
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Bows-Larkin, Alice
Two degrees of separation Journal Article
In: New Scientist, no. 2998, pp. 28–29, 0000.
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title = {Two degrees of separation},
author = {Alice Bows-Larkin},
journal = {New Scientist},
number = {2998},
pages = {28–29},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
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Sharmina, Maria; Pappas, Dimitrios; Scott, Kate; Schmid, Alejandro Gallego
Impact of circular economy measures in the European Union built environment on a net-zero target Journal Article
In: Circular Economy and Sustainability, 0000, ISSN: 2730-5988.
@article{9599f1414e00456e9e69eb07d302a377b,
title = {Impact of circular economy measures in the European Union built environment on a net-zero target},
author = {Maria Sharmina and Dimitrios Pappas and Kate Scott and Alejandro Gallego Schmid},
doi = {10.1007/s43615-023-00257-2},
issn = {2730-5988},
journal = {Circular Economy and Sustainability},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
abstract = {Environmental benefits of circular economy (CE) measures, such as waste reduction, need to be weighed against the urgent need to reduce CO 2 emissions to zero, in line with the Paris Agreement climate goals of 1.5–2 °C. Several studies have quantified CO 2 emissions associated with CE measures in the construction sector in different EU countries, with the literature’s focus ranging from bricks and insulation products, to individual buildings, to the entire construction sector. We find that there is a lack of synthesis and comparison of such studies to each other and to the EU CO 2 emission reduction targets, showing a need for estimating the EU-wide mitigation potential of CE strategies. To evaluate the contribution that CE strategies can make to reducing the EU’s emissions, we scale up the CO 2 emission estimates from the existing studies to the EU level and compare them to each other, from both construction-element and sector-wide perspectives. Our analysis shows that average CO 2 savings from sector-wide estimates (mean 39.28 Mt CO 2 eq./year) slightly exceeded construction-element savings (mean 25.06 Mt CO 2 eq./year). We also find that a conservative estimate of 234 Mt CO 2 eq./year in combined emission savings from CE strategies targeting construction elements can significantly contribute towards managing the EU’s remaining carbon budget. While this is a significant mitigation potential, our analysis suggests caution as to how the performance and trade-offs of CE strategies are evaluated, in relation to wider sustainability concerns beyond material and waste considerations.},
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Schmid, Alejandro Gallego; Rivera, Ximena C. Schmidt; Stamford, Laurence
Introduction of life cycle assessment and sustainability concepts in chemical engineering curricula Journal Article
In: International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, 0000, ISSN: 1467-6370.
@article{1be72ef5f6a542faaa6a4078e707b266b,
title = {Introduction of life cycle assessment and sustainability concepts in chemical engineering curricula},
author = {Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Ximena C. Schmidt Rivera and Laurence Stamford},
doi = {10.1108/IJSHE-09-2017-0146},
issn = {1467-6370},
journal = {International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education},
publisher = {Emerald Publishing Limited},
abstract = {Purpose: The implementation of life cycle assessment (LCA) and carbon footprinting represents an important professional and research opportunity for chemical engineers, but this is not broadly reflected in chemical engineering curricula worldwide. This study presents the implementation of a coursework that is easy to apply, free of cost, valid worldwide and flexible enough to cover such holistic topics.Design/methodology/approach: An analysis of chemical engineering curricula worldwide, a literature review and the implementation of a coursework case study are detailed. The latter combines practical exercises using free LCA software, oral presentations and debates.Findings. The coursework goes beyond the calculation of results, giving the students key transferable skills to increase their employability like the capacity to negotiate/discuss in groups, software learning and development of critical thinking. The course is affordable and flexible, enabling adaptation to different sectors and engineering schools. One limitation is the challenge of ensuring robustness and consistency in marking, but this has been already improved with a more explicit rubric. The feedback of the students confirms these findings, including the learning of transferable skills as the major advantage.Originality. This paper addresses, for the first time, the current state of ‘life cycle thinking’ teaching in the curricula of the top 25 chemical engineering schools worldwide, a literature review of previous experience, and a description of a novel coursework taking a theoretical and practical approach to LCA, carbon footprinting and socio-economic sustainability via free software and a comprehensive range of didactic activities.},
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Schmid, Alejandro Gallego; Jeswani, Harish; Mendoza, Joan Manuel Fernandez; Azapagic, Adisa
Life cycle environmental evaluation of kettles: Recommendations for the development of eco-design regulations in the European Union Journal Article
In: Science of the Total Environment, vol. 625, 0000, ISSN: 0048-9697.
@article{3fc8b0b7e42c4e7e89d67441df8e50a7b,
title = {Life cycle environmental evaluation of kettles: Recommendations for the development of eco-design regulations in the European Union},
author = {Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Harish Jeswani and Joan Manuel Fernandez Mendoza and Adisa Azapagic},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.262},
issn = {0048-9697},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
volume = {625},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Between 117 and 200 million kettles are used in the European Union (EU) every year. However, the full environmental impacts of kettles remain largely unknown. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment of conventional plastic and metallic kettles in comparison with eco-kettles. The results show that the use stage contributes 80% to the impacts. For this reason, the eco-kettle has over 30% lower environmental impacts due to a greater water efficiency and related lower energy consumption. These results have been extrapolated to the EU level to consider the implications for proposed eco-design regulations. For these purposes, the effects on the impacts of durability of kettles and improvements in their energy and water efficiency have been assessed as they have been identified as two key parameters in the proposed regulations. The results suggest that increasing the current average durability from 4.4 to seven years would reduce the impacts by less than 5%. Thus, improving durability is not a key issue for improving the environmental performance of kettles and does not justify the need for an eco-design regulation based exclusively on it. However, improvements in water and energy efficiency through eco-design can bring relevant environmental savings. Boiling the exact amount of water needed would reduce the impacts by around a third and using water temperature control by further 2%–5%. The study has also considered the effects of reducing significantly the number of kettles in use after the UK (large user of kettles) leaves the EU and reducing the excess water typically boiled by the consumer. Even under these circumstances, the environmental savings justify the development of a specific EU eco-design regulation for kettles. However, consumer engagement will be key to the implementation and achievement of the expected environmental benefits.},
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Elson, Richard; McIntyre, K. Marie; Hardingham, Megan B.; Luechtefeld, Thomas; Lake, Iain R.
A large language model-assisted workflow for generating a living evidence base for climate-sensitive foodborne disease Miscellaneous
0000.
@misc{fd45d233e85d4e84923a0f5050d52eef,
title = {A large language model-assisted workflow for generating a living evidence base for climate-sensitive foodborne disease},
author = {Richard Elson and K. Marie McIntyre and Megan B. Hardingham and Thomas Luechtefeld and Iain R. Lake},
doi = {10.64898/2026.07.04.26357263},
abstract = {Climate change is altering environmental conditions that influence foodborne disease transmission, yet traditional systematic reviews cannot keep pace with expanding evidence. We assessed whether an LLM-assisted workflow could generate a rapid, repeatable, and policy-relevant living evidence base for climate-sensitive foodborne disease. We combined structured PubMed searches (2010–2023), gold-standard human labelling, and iterative refinement of a GPT-4-Turbo-based auto-labeller within the SysRev platform. Pathogens of public-health importance in England were selected a priori. Model performance was evaluated against human reviewers using recall, precision, specificity, accuracy, and balanced accuracy. The refined inclusion model achieved 89·2% recall, 59·2% precision, 84·5% specificity, and 85·4% accuracy across 1,044 screened abstracts, identifying 436 studies for inclusion. Post-hoc re-evaluation of discordant abstracts showed that records excluded by the model but included during initial human screening did not meet the refined inclusion criteria. Frequently identified climate exposures included rainfall, temperature, seasonality, and humidity; norovirus, Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Cryptosporidium were the most common pathogens. An LLM-assisted workflow can generate living evidence for climate-sensitive foodborne disease with high recall and improved screening consistency. The approach is scalable, auditable, and suitable for secure institutional environments, supporting horizon scanning and climate-health risk assessment.},
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Perez-Viana, Borja; D'Exelle, Ben; Verschoor, Arjan
Informal Risk Sharing and Demand for Index Insurance: Experimental Evidence from Rural Uganda Journal Article
In: Journal of Risk and Insurance, 0000.
@article{bf5e5e43b2274adbb47793214ef2446b,
title = {Informal Risk Sharing and Demand for Index Insurance: Experimental Evidence from Rural Uganda},
author = {Borja Perez-Viana and Ben D'Exelle and Arjan Verschoor},
journal = {Journal of Risk and Insurance},
abstract = {Index insurance holds promise for smallholder farmers in developing countries, but its value is limited by basis risk: the imperfect correlation between the index and actual losses. If basis risk can be informally shared among farmers, the value of index insurance may increase, potentially raising demand. Conversely, the availability of formal insurance may reduce informal risk sharing; if farmers anticipate this, their demand for insurance may decline. The net effect is therefore ambiguous. We designed a lab experiment to study how informal risk sharing affects demand for index insurance and implemented it among farmers in Uganda. We find that demand for index insurance responds negatively to the presence of risk sharing, suggesting that informal arrangements crowd out formal insurance. We also find that absolute informal transfers are larger under index insurance than under indemnity insurance, but this reflects larger losses rather than a higher proportion of losses being shared. At the same time, the availability of risk sharing paradoxically reduces demand for index insurance, primarily by lowering high coverage choices. We discuss how strong local sharing norms and behavioral motives may help explain this finding.},
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Mohamed, Hassan; Greenwood, Naomi; Cooper, Richard J.; Graves, Carolyn; He, Yi
Catchment controls on nutrients at coastal outlets: a national typology for England and Wales Journal Article
In: Journal of Hydrology, vol. 677, no. C, 0000, ISSN: 0022-1694, (Data availability: Full details and workflows of the catchment characterisation, nutrient data processing, and clustering analysis are provided in the project’s GitHub repository (https://github.com/Hassanabubaker/ Coast-Draining-Catchments-Typologies).).
@article{c51508dadce2480fb7a2901faafccefa,
title = {Catchment controls on nutrients at coastal outlets: a national typology for England and Wales},
author = {Hassan Mohamed and Naomi Greenwood and Richard J. Cooper and Carolyn Graves and Yi He},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135970},
issn = {0022-1694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
volume = {677},
number = {C},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Riverine nutrient concentrations at coastal outlets reflect upstream catchment controls and underpin nutrient flux estimates. Existing catchment classifications are not tailored to this scale, limiting their application for interpreting land-to-sea patterns and informing management of marine pressures. This study develops a data-driven typology for 178 coast-draining catchments across England and Wales, grouping them into eight types through geospatial characterisation and clustering. Nutrient concentrations (2000–2024) were retrieved from water quality archives at 271 near-tidal sites.The resulting typology is structured along a topographic gradient, further differentiated by dominant bedrock permeability. A two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) confirmed significant differences between types for NH 4 +, NO 3 − and PO 4 3− (p < 0.001), with a significant seasonal effect for NO 3 − and PO 4 3− only. NO 3 − exhibited strong seasonality in arable lowland low- and high-permeability catchments where winter medians (8.8 and 8.4 mg N/L) exceeded summer values (5.1 and 6.4 mg N/L), reflecting enhanced leaching. NH 4 + showed limited seasonality, with variability governed by point-source inputs. PO 4 3− displayed an inverse seasonal pattern, with higher summer concentrations from reduced dilution of point-source inputs. Despite representing only 1% of the total catchment area, the urban type dominated NH 4 + and PO 4 3− concentrations, peaking in winter for NH 4 + (0.176 mg N/L) and summer for PO 4 3− (0.51 mg P/L), while NO 3 − was controlled by arable types, with increasing urban influence in recent years. These results provide a framework for targeting nutrient management to the dominant controls of each type, supporting more effective nutrient reduction measures under the UK Marine Strategy and OSPAR commitments.},
note = {Data availability: Full details and workflows of the catchment characterisation, nutrient data processing, and clustering analysis are provided in the project’s GitHub repository (https://github.com/Hassanabubaker/ Coast-Draining-Catchments-Typologies).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Paolo, Maria Di; Stevens, David P.; Joshi, Manoj
Climate Patterns of Spin-Orbit Resonant Exoplanets Around Low-Mass Stars Journal Article
In: The Astrophysical Journal, vol. 1005, no. 2, 0000, ISSN: 0004-637X, (Code and Data Availability: The FORTE2.0 Blaker et al. (2021) code, compilation instructions and example run scripts, together with all necessary ancillary files, are accessible at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4108373. The data that support the findings of this study are accessible at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17885048.).
@article{6a92457dfa7a4f57a16ba58f32e3840a,
title = {Climate Patterns of Spin-Orbit Resonant Exoplanets Around Low-Mass Stars},
author = {Maria Di Paolo and David P. Stevens and Manoj Joshi},
doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/ae733d},
issn = {0004-637X},
journal = {The Astrophysical Journal},
volume = {1005},
number = {2},
publisher = {American Astronomical Society},
abstract = {M dwarfs are the most promising candidates for finding habitable worlds through atmospheric characterization. Planets in the habitable zone of low-mass stars experience intense tidal forcings and often become tidally locked. Despite the majority of research being centered on the climate dynamics of synchronously rotating planets in this scenario, synchronous rotation is not an inevitable outcome of tidal locking. Several different circumstances can result in an asynchronous rotation and, in some instances, can lead to spin–orbit resonances (SORs). We explore the climates of two different SOR scenarios with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation climate model. Given the crucial role played by the oceans in shaping planetary climate, we adopt two different ocean tidal forcing parameterizations for each SOR scenario. Each of these cases is simulated with both a dynamic ocean and a thermodynamic ocean. Our findings reveal striking differences between the analyzed resonant case and the commonly studied synchronous rotation case. Periodic climate patterns are observed, with climatic features such as clouds and rainfall exhibiting a 60 ∘ longitudinal shift relative to the substellar point. The evolution of quantities such as thermal emission and reflected light during a stellar period is noteworthy from the observational point of view, showing appreciable differences compared to the synchronous rotation scenario.},
note = {Code and Data Availability: The FORTE2.0 Blaker et al. (2021) code, compilation instructions and example run scripts, together with all necessary ancillary files, are accessible at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4108373. The data that support the findings of this study are accessible at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17885048.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Hope, Aimie; Vaughan, Naomi E.
Insights lost at points of vulnerability in UK policy evidence gathering on carbon dioxide removal Journal Article
In: Environmental Science & Policy, vol. 181, 0000, ISSN: 1462-9011.
@article{b22d597861c34e9ca5797aacd2596302,
title = {Insights lost at points of vulnerability in UK policy evidence gathering on carbon dioxide removal},
author = {Aimie Hope and Naomi E. Vaughan},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104412},
issn = {1462-9011},
journal = {Environmental Science & Policy},
volume = {181},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The methods, quantity, and timing of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is impacted by, and has implications for, decarbonising energy, land use change, agriculture, the earth system response, and global society. Uncertainties in each plus the rapid development of CDR methods and policy, make decision-making challenging. Insights from the social sciences and humanities are underrepresented in CDR decision-making. Qualitative evidence and theoretical insights are challenging to synthesise with quantitative policy outputs and decision tools. Real-world complexities may therefore be missed from feasibility assessments and decision-making around CDR, with consequent risks to delivery. We focus on expert consultation procedures to identify points where real-world insights may be lost. The focus is non-statutory consultations with significant two-way dialogue and multiple stakeholders. Non-statutory processes are less scrutinised and more fluid, with greater scope for the quality of evidence to be impacted by institutional and human biases. Twenty-six semi-structured online interviews were conducted with individuals from NGOs, policy, industry, and academia who work on CDR and related areas. Interviews capture both inside (i.e., policymaker/panel convenor) and outside (i.e., stakeholder/expert) perspectives on evidence gathering procedures. Interviews provide insights into the contexts in which evidence is gathered, which procedures are working well and where changes may promote more robust evidence gathering. We identify points at which insights are lost: (1) expert selection (as this determines the types of evidence heard), (2) during panel sessions (e.g., if some voices are silent or marginalised), and (3) evidence synthesis (e.g., if insights do not fit easily into the intended output).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Arefin, Syed Shamsil; Nicholls, Robert; Nolte, Stefanie; Heslop, Jack
Meta analysis of Manning’s coefficient for saltmarsh and mangroves to support broad scale assessment Journal Article
In: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, vol. 334, 0000, ISSN: 0272-7714.
@article{220c6b00a26d45b4b29e578389bbce33,
title = {Meta analysis of Manning’s coefficient for saltmarsh and mangroves to support broad scale assessment},
author = {Syed Shamsil Arefin and Robert Nicholls and Stefanie Nolte and Jack Heslop},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecss.2026.109791},
issn = {0272-7714},
journal = {Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science},
volume = {334},
publisher = {Academic Press},
abstract = {The natural protection offered by saltmarsh and mangrove wetlands is increasingly recognised and there is widespread interest in understanding this phenomenon to assist nature-based coastal interventions. Roughness plays a fundamental role in shallow-water hydrodynamic process and hence is a critical parameter for simulating flow over coastal vegetation and the resulting dynamics of surge and wave attenuation. This study provides a comprehensive review of our understanding of the Manning's coefficient (T/L1/3) in saltmarsh and mangroves. The literature was screened using a rigorous selection procedure to identify studies relevant to saltmarsh and mangrove hydrodynamics and bed roughness. Considering all the numerical, laboratory and field studies that used Manning's coefficient in saltmarsh and mangrove ecosystems, 36 papers were identified and assessed. The results indicate an interquartile range of Manning's coefficient (s/m1/3) from 0.04 to 0.08 for saltmarshes and 0.10 to 0.14 for mangroves, providing indicative ‘global’ estimates for these two coastal wetland types. Geographic location, tidal range and temperature showed no statistical relationship, supporting the use of global indicative values. However, statistical testing reveals that the Manning's coefficient for saltmarshes and mangroves do show significant cross-shore variability with increasing values from the seaward to landward direction. This should be considered and further assessed, especially in more detailed studies. Hence, this analysis provides an indicative ‘global’ constant estimate of Manning's coefficient for saltmarshes and mangroves, as well as suggestions for more systematic future research on wetland roughness.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}







