Tyndall Centre Publications
The following database includes publications by researchers exclusively from the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the University of Manchester.
20.
Capper, Timothy; Kuriakose, Jaise; Sharmina, Maria
Economic viability of domestic battery storage participation in British flexibility markets Proceedings Article
In: 19th International Conference on AC and DC Power Transmission (ACDC 2023), Institution of Engineering and Technology, United Kingdom, 0000.
@inproceedings{fec9eeec3d4c4f5e8eb60873f50f0995b,
title = {Economic viability of domestic battery storage participation in British flexibility markets},
author = {Timothy Capper and Jaise Kuriakose and Maria Sharmina},
booktitle = {19th International Conference on AC and DC Power Transmission (ACDC 2023)},
publisher = {Institution of Engineering and Technology},
address = {United Kingdom},
abstract = {Curbing emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change is likely to lead to a significant increase in electricity demand due to the electrification of heating and transportation, and a decrease in the balancing reserve due to a decrease in the number of gas turbines. To alleviate the significant network investment costs and the fall in balancing resources, both distribution network operators and the system operator in Great Britain have created markets for behind-the-meter flexibility. For domestic battery storage to play a meaningful role in flexibility markets, it must be beneficial to the households who choose to finance and install it. In this paper we examine the value of domestic battery storage systems, both with and without associated PV installations. We show quantitatively, for the first time, that domestic battery storage is a financially worthwhile investment for households, and that participating in network operator and system operator flexibility markets can be lucrative. Finally, we show that domestic PV installations have a negative value when accounting for the capital investment. However, if a household wanted to install PV for non-financial reasons, investing in a battery alongside the PV gives the installed system a positive value.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
Curbing emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change is likely to lead to a significant increase in electricity demand due to the electrification of heating and transportation, and a decrease in the balancing reserve due to a decrease in the number of gas turbines. To alleviate the significant network investment costs and the fall in balancing resources, both distribution network operators and the system operator in Great Britain have created markets for behind-the-meter flexibility. For domestic battery storage to play a meaningful role in flexibility markets, it must be beneficial to the households who choose to finance and install it. In this paper we examine the value of domestic battery storage systems, both with and without associated PV installations. We show quantitatively, for the first time, that domestic battery storage is a financially worthwhile investment for households, and that participating in network operator and system operator flexibility markets can be lucrative. Finally, we show that domestic PV installations have a negative value when accounting for the capital investment. However, if a household wanted to install PV for non-financial reasons, investing in a battery alongside the PV gives the installed system a positive value.
19.
Li, Jingyi; Tarpani, Raphael Ricardo Zepon; Stamford, Laurence; Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro
Life cycle sustainability assessment and circularity of geothermal power plants Journal Article
In: Sustainable Production and Consumption, vol. 35, pp. 141–156, 0000, ISSN: 2352-5509.
@article{336a5131a8ba43a789278dbd38afc543b,
title = {Life cycle sustainability assessment and circularity of geothermal power plants},
author = {Jingyi Li and Raphael Ricardo Zepon Tarpani and Laurence Stamford and Alejandro Gallego-Schmid},
doi = {10.1016/j.spc.2022.10.027},
issn = {2352-5509},
journal = {Sustainable Production and Consumption},
volume = {35},
pages = {141–156},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Geothermal power generation is expected to increase fivefold worldwide by 2040 compared to 2018. The upcoming growth of geothermal power plants (GPPs) requires assessments of its role in tackling climate change and other impacts within complex environmental, economic and social systems. This study presents the first literature review of GPPs, including comparisons among different GPP technologies, based on life cycle sustainability and circular economy perspectives. A total of 76 core literature studies on geothermal-related topics are reviewed, including technology choices, and critically discussed in terms of their environmental, economic, social and circular economy aspects. Firstly, seven life cycle environmental impact indicators (global warming, acidification, eutrophication, human toxicity, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidation, and cumulative energy demand) are compared both within GPP technologies and to other conventional electricity generation technologies (such as coal and hydro). Secondly, economic sustainability is considered via life cycle costing, and the results show that geothermal could be economically competitive when compared to solar photovoltaic (PV), hydro, and even wind energy sources. Thirdly, social aspects are discussed considering 15 articles that evaluated concerns such as public acceptance, technology safety and local employment rate, although none rigorously considered a life cycle approach. Lastly, a total of 12 articles were found linking the circular economy with GPPs and elaborating on some of the ‘9Rs’ framework. To improve the effectiveness of future research, studies should focus on fulfilling major data gaps in literature such as the lack of detailed documentation for specific materials and background process choices in life cycle assessment databases. The development of GPPs can be an important alternative in efforts to decrease climate change impacts and pursue cleaner energy sources in countries where geothermal energy is more easily available.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Geothermal power generation is expected to increase fivefold worldwide by 2040 compared to 2018. The upcoming growth of geothermal power plants (GPPs) requires assessments of its role in tackling climate change and other impacts within complex environmental, economic and social systems. This study presents the first literature review of GPPs, including comparisons among different GPP technologies, based on life cycle sustainability and circular economy perspectives. A total of 76 core literature studies on geothermal-related topics are reviewed, including technology choices, and critically discussed in terms of their environmental, economic, social and circular economy aspects. Firstly, seven life cycle environmental impact indicators (global warming, acidification, eutrophication, human toxicity, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidation, and cumulative energy demand) are compared both within GPP technologies and to other conventional electricity generation technologies (such as coal and hydro). Secondly, economic sustainability is considered via life cycle costing, and the results show that geothermal could be economically competitive when compared to solar photovoltaic (PV), hydro, and even wind energy sources. Thirdly, social aspects are discussed considering 15 articles that evaluated concerns such as public acceptance, technology safety and local employment rate, although none rigorously considered a life cycle approach. Lastly, a total of 12 articles were found linking the circular economy with GPPs and elaborating on some of the ‘9Rs’ framework. To improve the effectiveness of future research, studies should focus on fulfilling major data gaps in literature such as the lack of detailed documentation for specific materials and background process choices in life cycle assessment databases. The development of GPPs can be an important alternative in efforts to decrease climate change impacts and pursue cleaner energy sources in countries where geothermal energy is more easily available.
18.
Anderson, Kevin; Broderick, John
Natural gas and climate change Book
University of Manchester, United Kingdom, 0000.
@book{c82adf1f17fd4842abebf16c4ab83605b,
title = {Natural gas and climate change},
author = {Kevin Anderson and John Broderick},
publisher = {University of Manchester},
address = {United Kingdom},
abstract = {Natural gas has been presented as a “bridging fuel” that can play an important role in facilitating the transition to a low carbon economy, complementing a significant increase in the utilisation of renewable energy sources. This report reviews recent research on methane emissions and the relative lifecycle carbon intensity of a range of potential natural gas sources. It quantifies carbon budgets and the maximum level of EU natural gas consumption compatible with the Paris Agreement. We find that carbon dioxide from combustion is the dominant contributor to the long-term climate change impact of natural gas. In order to meet its Paris 2°C commitment the EU needs over 12% p.a. mitigation, starting immediately. As such, fossil fuels (including natural gas) have no substantial role in an EU 2°C energy system beyond 2035.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {book}
}
Natural gas has been presented as a “bridging fuel” that can play an important role in facilitating the transition to a low carbon economy, complementing a significant increase in the utilisation of renewable energy sources. This report reviews recent research on methane emissions and the relative lifecycle carbon intensity of a range of potential natural gas sources. It quantifies carbon budgets and the maximum level of EU natural gas consumption compatible with the Paris Agreement. We find that carbon dioxide from combustion is the dominant contributor to the long-term climate change impact of natural gas. In order to meet its Paris 2°C commitment the EU needs over 12% p.a. mitigation, starting immediately. As such, fossil fuels (including natural gas) have no substantial role in an EU 2°C energy system beyond 2035.
17.
Li, Wenzhu; Cunningham, Lee; Mander, Sarah; Schultz, David; Panteli, Mathaios; Gan, Chin Kim
Siting of Electrical Substations for Flood Resilience: Identification of Hazards and Vulnerable Assets Proceedings Article
In: Proceedings of the 2022 MACE PGR Conference, pp. 1–4, 0000, (The 2022 MACE PGR Conference ; Conference date: 01-07-2022 Through 01-07-2022).
@inproceedings{a68dea1043d34154847865006922fb44b,
title = {Siting of Electrical Substations for Flood Resilience: Identification of Hazards and Vulnerable Assets},
author = {Wenzhu Li and Lee Cunningham and Sarah Mander and David Schultz and Mathaios Panteli and Chin Kim Gan},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2022 MACE PGR Conference},
pages = {1–4},
abstract = {Extreme weather events disrupt power-system assets, causing widespread and prolonged power outages. Proper siting of power-system assets can help stakeholders improve their resilience (i.e., the ability to withstand hazards and recover quickly from impacts) at the planning stage. However, resilience is context-dependent because different regions face distinct hazards and these damage power system assets differently. As such, the asset siting schemes for stakeholders involve a complex process of i) identifying hazards and vulnerable assets, ii) determining the failure mechanisms of assets under hazards and iii) weighing up the economic and social effectiveness involved in resilience enhancement measures. This paper will focus on the first step of the process, which is to demonstrate how to identify the most severe hazards (e.g., floods) and affected assets (e.g., substations), using Peninsular Malaysia as the study area. The results of this study can provide research objectives for the subsequent two steps: determining the failure mechanisms of assets subject to hazards, and developing resilience enhancement measures in the third step.},
note = {The 2022 MACE PGR Conference ; Conference date: 01-07-2022 Through 01-07-2022},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
Extreme weather events disrupt power-system assets, causing widespread and prolonged power outages. Proper siting of power-system assets can help stakeholders improve their resilience (i.e., the ability to withstand hazards and recover quickly from impacts) at the planning stage. However, resilience is context-dependent because different regions face distinct hazards and these damage power system assets differently. As such, the asset siting schemes for stakeholders involve a complex process of i) identifying hazards and vulnerable assets, ii) determining the failure mechanisms of assets under hazards and iii) weighing up the economic and social effectiveness involved in resilience enhancement measures. This paper will focus on the first step of the process, which is to demonstrate how to identify the most severe hazards (e.g., floods) and affected assets (e.g., substations), using Peninsular Malaysia as the study area. The results of this study can provide research objectives for the subsequent two steps: determining the failure mechanisms of assets subject to hazards, and developing resilience enhancement measures in the third step.
16.
Zhang, Xi; Ameli, Hossein; Dong, Zihang; Vecchione, Andrea; Schmid, Alejandro Gallego; Strbac, Goran; Sciacovell, Adriano
Values of Latent Heat and Thermochemical Energy Storage Technologies in Low-carbon Energy Systems: Whole System Approach Journal Article
In: Journal of Energy Storage, vol. 50, 0000, ISSN: 2352-152X.
@article{ce9ed9525a84441991652c38d6aa798bb,
title = {Values of Latent Heat and Thermochemical Energy Storage Technologies in Low-carbon Energy Systems: Whole System Approach},
author = {Xi Zhang and Hossein Ameli and Zihang Dong and Andrea Vecchione and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Goran Strbac and Adriano Sciacovell},
doi = {10.1016/j.est.2022.104126},
issn = {2352-152X},
journal = {Journal of Energy Storage},
volume = {50},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Thermal energy storage (TES) is widely expected to play an important role in facilitating the decarbonization of the future energy system. Although significant work has been done in assessing the values of traditional sensible TES, less is known about the role, impact and value of emerging advanced TES at the system level. This is particularly the case of latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) and thermochemical energy storage (TCS). In this context, this paper is dedicated to evaluating the techno-economic values for the whole UK energy system of LHTES and TCS technology using an integrated whole energy system model. First, the key concepts of the whole system modelling framework are introduced. Unique to this work is that the economic benefits delivered by LHTES and TCS to different levels of the UK energy system infrastructure and various energy sectors through the deployment of TES are explicitly analysed, which comprehensively demonstrates the values of selected TES technologies from the whole system perspective. A series of sensitivity studies are implemented to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of LHTES and TCS under different conditions. The simulation results indicate that TES can benefit different sectors of the whole energy system and drive significant cost savings, but the whole system values of TES is closely dependent on the decarbonization requirement. Although LHTES is characterized by relatively low capital costs, when TES penetration is limited and carbon target is tight, the advantage of TCS is outstanding due to its high energy density.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Thermal energy storage (TES) is widely expected to play an important role in facilitating the decarbonization of the future energy system. Although significant work has been done in assessing the values of traditional sensible TES, less is known about the role, impact and value of emerging advanced TES at the system level. This is particularly the case of latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) and thermochemical energy storage (TCS). In this context, this paper is dedicated to evaluating the techno-economic values for the whole UK energy system of LHTES and TCS technology using an integrated whole energy system model. First, the key concepts of the whole system modelling framework are introduced. Unique to this work is that the economic benefits delivered by LHTES and TCS to different levels of the UK energy system infrastructure and various energy sectors through the deployment of TES are explicitly analysed, which comprehensively demonstrates the values of selected TES technologies from the whole system perspective. A series of sensitivity studies are implemented to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of LHTES and TCS under different conditions. The simulation results indicate that TES can benefit different sectors of the whole energy system and drive significant cost savings, but the whole system values of TES is closely dependent on the decarbonization requirement. Although LHTES is characterized by relatively low capital costs, when TES penetration is limited and carbon target is tight, the advantage of TCS is outstanding due to its high energy density.
15.
Li, Wenzhu; Cunningham, Lee; Schultz, David; Mander, Sarah; Gan, Chin Kim; Panteli, Mathaios
Structural Resilience of Pole-mounted Substations Subjected to Flooding: Generalized Framework and a Malaysian Case Study Journal Article
In: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, vol. 10, no. 2, 0000, ISSN: 2376-7642.
@article{66cc47f95802444fa35bf123afcc97a5b,
title = {Structural Resilience of Pole-mounted Substations Subjected to Flooding: Generalized Framework and a Malaysian Case Study},
author = {Wenzhu Li and Lee Cunningham and David Schultz and Sarah Mander and Chin Kim Gan and Mathaios Panteli},
doi = {10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1143},
issn = {2376-7642},
journal = {ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering},
volume = {10},
number = {2},
publisher = {American Society of Civil Engineers},
abstract = {Substations are vital components of electricity supply, representing a weak point in a power network due to their vulnerability to flood events. Pole-mounted substations can effectively mitigate inundation failures by elevating electrical equipment. However, the supporting structures of such substations often are not designed to withstand flood flows, and thus are prone to structural failure. This paper proposes a generalized framework to quantify the structural failure probabilities of pole-mounted substations and to assess their structural resilience to flooding. The generalized framework was applied to a case-study location in Malaysia, where serious flood events are common and pole-mounted substations abound. The study first identifies and quantifies the flood effects on the poles, including pure hydrodynamic forces, the impact of floating debris, debris damming effects, and scouring. The quantified flood effects then are compared with the structural capacity of a typical pole-mounted substation structure and its foundation, to derive a capacity threshold curve for structural failure. The failure probability is illustrated via fragility curves for different flood depths and risk curves for different flood and wind return periods, to assess further the substation’s structural resilience. The aforementioned curves are based on a stochastic distribution of flood depths and velocities represented by a normalized Weibull function. This approach can be adapted easily to depict flood conditions for any given location. Overall, the results of this paper can help stakeholders, including those designing and managing substation structures, to quantify, assess, and further enhance the flood resilience of power-supply networks.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Substations are vital components of electricity supply, representing a weak point in a power network due to their vulnerability to flood events. Pole-mounted substations can effectively mitigate inundation failures by elevating electrical equipment. However, the supporting structures of such substations often are not designed to withstand flood flows, and thus are prone to structural failure. This paper proposes a generalized framework to quantify the structural failure probabilities of pole-mounted substations and to assess their structural resilience to flooding. The generalized framework was applied to a case-study location in Malaysia, where serious flood events are common and pole-mounted substations abound. The study first identifies and quantifies the flood effects on the poles, including pure hydrodynamic forces, the impact of floating debris, debris damming effects, and scouring. The quantified flood effects then are compared with the structural capacity of a typical pole-mounted substation structure and its foundation, to derive a capacity threshold curve for structural failure. The failure probability is illustrated via fragility curves for different flood depths and risk curves for different flood and wind return periods, to assess further the substation’s structural resilience. The aforementioned curves are based on a stochastic distribution of flood depths and velocities represented by a normalized Weibull function. This approach can be adapted easily to depict flood conditions for any given location. Overall, the results of this paper can help stakeholders, including those designing and managing substation structures, to quantify, assess, and further enhance the flood resilience of power-supply networks.
14.
Calver, Philippa; Mander, Sarah; Ghanem, Dana Abi
In: Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 83, pp. 102299, 0000, ISSN: 2214-6296.
@article{1df6e886992e45488ed0dc6736170ee9b,
title = {Low carbon system innovation through an energy justice lens: Exploring domestic heat pump adoption with direct load control in the United Kingdom},
author = {Philippa Calver and Sarah Mander and Dana Abi Ghanem},
doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2021.102299},
issn = {2214-6296},
journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},
volume = {83},
pages = {102299},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {In the context of climate change, global industrialised nations are grappling with transforming energy networks to support a low carbon future. Using an energy justice framework this work aims to understand holistic outcomes of one low-carbon energy network intervention: demand-side response enacted on domestic heat pumps. By exploring participants’ lived experience of a pilot project, from recruitment to installation and use, this work reveals how injustices were reduced, introduced and amplified. Choice, consent, cost, comfort, disruption and control are highlighted as key aspects of interest when considering the distributive, procedural, and recognition implications of this domestic innovation. For a net reduction of energy injustices to be realised, we highlight the need for project designers to work in partnership with end users to optimise the benefits for the household and the electricity system. Whilst this is a UK study, the themes and findings are internationally applicable for interventions that aim to harness the flexibility of heating, the predominantly largest global energy end-use.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
In the context of climate change, global industrialised nations are grappling with transforming energy networks to support a low carbon future. Using an energy justice framework this work aims to understand holistic outcomes of one low-carbon energy network intervention: demand-side response enacted on domestic heat pumps. By exploring participants’ lived experience of a pilot project, from recruitment to installation and use, this work reveals how injustices were reduced, introduced and amplified. Choice, consent, cost, comfort, disruption and control are highlighted as key aspects of interest when considering the distributive, procedural, and recognition implications of this domestic innovation. For a net reduction of energy injustices to be realised, we highlight the need for project designers to work in partnership with end users to optimise the benefits for the household and the electricity system. Whilst this is a UK study, the themes and findings are internationally applicable for interventions that aim to harness the flexibility of heating, the predominantly largest global energy end-use.
13.
Cairns, Iain; Hannon, Matthew; Braunholtz-Speight, Tim; Mclachlan, Carly; Mander, Sarah; Hardy, Jeff; Sharmina, Maria; Manderson, Ed
Financing grassroots innovation diffusion pathways: the case of UK community energy Journal Article
In: Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, vol. 46, 0000, ISSN: 2210-4224, (Funding Information: Fourth, even though the public sector has intervened, introducing new rule sets into the finance meta-regime to support small scale development, thus far this has been insufficient to drive widespread diffusion of CE. The devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales have moved to address a shortage of capital investment for small scale ventures ( Fig. 2 ). In Scotland, for example, the Scottish Government-backed Energy Investment Fund operates as a secondary lender to supply small sums of capital and de-risk investment for private banks ( Cairns et al., 2020c ). Conversely, smaller scale projects receive limited finance support from the UK government. Publisher Copyright: © 2022).
@article{a19367c0cabd4af0874922e322db8e76b,
title = {Financing grassroots innovation diffusion pathways: the case of UK community energy},
author = {Iain Cairns and Matthew Hannon and Tim Braunholtz-Speight and Carly Mclachlan and Sarah Mander and Jeff Hardy and Maria Sharmina and Ed Manderson},
doi = {10.1016/j.eist.2022.11.004},
issn = {2210-4224},
journal = {Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions},
volume = {46},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {This paper explores how finance can better support the diffusion of Grassroots Innovations (GIs), community-led solutions for net-zero transitions. We examine the case of UK community energy (CE), across three ‘diffusion pathways’: niche replication (growth in the number of projects), individual scaling (growth in an organisation's scale) and collective diffusion (a confederation of GIs). We investigate each pathway through analysis of a nationwide survey, interviews and four case studies. We find that while finance currently supports replication of small-scale CE projects, the incompatibility between GIs and the wider finance meta-regime inhibits individual scaling. The UK CE sector has responded with collective diffusion, via business group intermediaries; attracting greater but still insufficient finance. Consequently, for GIs to diffuse effectively, they must be supported to translate across both sectoral regimes (e.g. energy) and broader meta-regimes (e.g. finance). This paper contributes to theory on the role of finance in sociotechnical transitions and the role of intermediaries in GI diffusion.},
note = {Funding Information: Fourth, even though the public sector has intervened, introducing new rule sets into the finance meta-regime to support small scale development, thus far this has been insufficient to drive widespread diffusion of CE. The devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales have moved to address a shortage of capital investment for small scale ventures ( Fig. 2 ). In Scotland, for example, the Scottish Government-backed Energy Investment Fund operates as a secondary lender to supply small sums of capital and de-risk investment for private banks ( Cairns et al., 2020c ). Conversely, smaller scale projects receive limited finance support from the UK government. Publisher Copyright: © 2022},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This paper explores how finance can better support the diffusion of Grassroots Innovations (GIs), community-led solutions for net-zero transitions. We examine the case of UK community energy (CE), across three ‘diffusion pathways’: niche replication (growth in the number of projects), individual scaling (growth in an organisation's scale) and collective diffusion (a confederation of GIs). We investigate each pathway through analysis of a nationwide survey, interviews and four case studies. We find that while finance currently supports replication of small-scale CE projects, the incompatibility between GIs and the wider finance meta-regime inhibits individual scaling. The UK CE sector has responded with collective diffusion, via business group intermediaries; attracting greater but still insufficient finance. Consequently, for GIs to diffuse effectively, they must be supported to translate across both sectoral regimes (e.g. energy) and broader meta-regimes (e.g. finance). This paper contributes to theory on the role of finance in sociotechnical transitions and the role of intermediaries in GI diffusion.
12.
Li, Jingyi; Schmid, Alejandro Gallego; Stamford, Laurence
Integrated sustainability assessment of repurposing onshore abandoned wells for geothermal power generation Journal Article
In: Applied Energy, vol. 359, 0000, ISSN: 0306-2619.
@article{e6996d8b559f44faa75c1528d0bfe709b,
title = {Integrated sustainability assessment of repurposing onshore abandoned wells for geothermal power generation},
author = {Jingyi Li and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Laurence Stamford},
doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122670},
issn = {0306-2619},
journal = {Applied Energy},
volume = {359},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {As global efforts intensify to mitigate climate change through Net-Zero by 2050, the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is of utmost importance. Within this context, geothermal power generation is an underestimated yet rapidly developing field with immense potential. A notable opportunity arises from repurposing abandoned oil and gas wells (AOGWs) as alternative sources for geothermal power production. This study employs multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to examine the techno-sustainability of four geothermal power systems: i) a business-as-usual geothermal power plant (GEObau), ii) repurpose two completely AOGWs for geothermal power generation (R-GEOdouble), iii) repurpose a single completely AOGW (R-GEOsingle), iv) repurpose semi-AOGWs (i.e., wells still in operation but with high water cut, R-GEOsemi). We assessed 30 criteria across technical, environmental, economic, and social dimensions via the analytical hierarchy process. The study identifies R-GEOsemi as the most techno-sustainable option due to its superior performance across environmental, economic, and social dimensions. However, GEObau closely follows R-GEOsemi, securing its position as the second-best option, marked by its outstanding technical proficiency and robust environmental and social performance. Conversely, R-GEOdouble and R-GEOsingle show limited techno-sustainability competitiveness. When sensitivity analyses are applied to the weighting factors, R-GEOsemi demonstrates resilience and remains as the best option in most cases. However, GEObau could outperform R-GEOsemi when the value of technical criteria is increased (weightings >0.255) or when the weightings for environmental or economic aspects decrease (weightings <0.236 and < 0.244 respectively). R-GEOdouble and R-GEOsingle only overtake GEObau when the economic aspect reaches a weighting of 0.659 or more. Despite R-GEOsemi being the most promising option, it faces challenges due to limited power generation capacity and the availability of wells approaching their end-of-lives. The findings underline the necessity for broader stakeholder input, inclusion of more technical and social criteria, and data-driven decision-making processes.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
As global efforts intensify to mitigate climate change through Net-Zero by 2050, the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is of utmost importance. Within this context, geothermal power generation is an underestimated yet rapidly developing field with immense potential. A notable opportunity arises from repurposing abandoned oil and gas wells (AOGWs) as alternative sources for geothermal power production. This study employs multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to examine the techno-sustainability of four geothermal power systems: i) a business-as-usual geothermal power plant (GEObau), ii) repurpose two completely AOGWs for geothermal power generation (R-GEOdouble), iii) repurpose a single completely AOGW (R-GEOsingle), iv) repurpose semi-AOGWs (i.e., wells still in operation but with high water cut, R-GEOsemi). We assessed 30 criteria across technical, environmental, economic, and social dimensions via the analytical hierarchy process. The study identifies R-GEOsemi as the most techno-sustainable option due to its superior performance across environmental, economic, and social dimensions. However, GEObau closely follows R-GEOsemi, securing its position as the second-best option, marked by its outstanding technical proficiency and robust environmental and social performance. Conversely, R-GEOdouble and R-GEOsingle show limited techno-sustainability competitiveness. When sensitivity analyses are applied to the weighting factors, R-GEOsemi demonstrates resilience and remains as the best option in most cases. However, GEObau could outperform R-GEOsemi when the value of technical criteria is increased (weightings >0.255) or when the weightings for environmental or economic aspects decrease (weightings <0.236 and < 0.244 respectively). R-GEOdouble and R-GEOsingle only overtake GEObau when the economic aspect reaches a weighting of 0.659 or more. Despite R-GEOsemi being the most promising option, it faces challenges due to limited power generation capacity and the availability of wells approaching their end-of-lives. The findings underline the necessity for broader stakeholder input, inclusion of more technical and social criteria, and data-driven decision-making processes.
11.
Burgess, Martin; Holmes, Helen; Sharmina, Maria; Shaver, Michael
The Future of UK Plastics Recycling: One Bin to Rule Them All Journal Article
In: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, vol. 164, no. 105191, 0000, ISSN: 0921-3449, (Funding Information: We are grateful for funding from the EPSRC through the UKRI Plastics and Research Innovation Fund (EP/S025200/1). Without the help and support of our partners this project would never have been conceived or executed. Their time and enthusiasm has been invaluable. Many thanks to Alpla, Axion, BASF, Biffa, Braskem, Britvic, BP, Co-op, Defra, Dsposal, Ecosurety, FEC & Northern Gateway, Greater Manchester Combined Authority, iPac Packaging Innovations, Nestl?, PlasticsEurope, PolyTag, Sharpak, Suez, Unilever and two other unnamed companies. Funding Information: We are grateful for funding from the EPSRC through the UKRI Plastics and Research Innovation Fund ( EP/S025200/1 ). Without the help and support of our partners this project would never have been conceived or executed. Their time and enthusiasm has been invaluable. Many thanks to Alpla, Axion, BASF, Biffa, Braskem, Britvic, BP, Co-op, Defra, Dsposal, Ecosurety, FEC & Northern Gateway, Greater Manchester Combined Authority, iPac Packaging Innovations, Nestlé, PlasticsEurope, PolyTag, Sharpak, Suez, Unilever and two other unnamed companies. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 Elsevier B.V. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.).
@article{b8a39fadb463435f90cc5ac20ae14244b,
title = {The Future of UK Plastics Recycling: One Bin to Rule Them All},
author = {Martin Burgess and Helen Holmes and Maria Sharmina and Michael Shaver},
doi = {10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105191},
issn = {0921-3449},
journal = {Resources, Conservation and Recycling},
volume = {164},
number = {105191},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {The use of plastics, and even the existence of this versatile material, has been increasingly demonised in the UK. Public campaigns exist to expand use of recyclable cups and to eliminate plastic straws. Retailers supplying 80% of the market are now members of the UK Plastics Pact, with goals to ensure that products are designed to be recycled, that recycling takes place, and that more recyclate is used in new products.Public awareness has not translated into action, as domestic collection rates for discarded plastics remain pitifully low. We started with a systems-wide vision that these rates can only be increased if all household plastic recycling is made easy and consistent – christened ‘One Bin to Rule Them All’ - and used this premise as a starting point to examine the implications of a fully mixed plastics waste stream entering the supply chain. An agenda for future research was developed through 25 interviews with senior industrial and commercial management and a cross-sector workshop.We determined that if improved household collection rates are to translate into significantly improved recycling rates, rapid progress is required in four areas: standardisation (materials, kerbside collections, waste sorting), infrastructure investment, development of cross-supply chain business models and creation of higher value recyclate. Creating a harmonised national solution to plastic waste sorting is critically dependent on maintaining value in discarded plastics. This in turn reduces plastic leakage into the environment. Enabling this value-based scenario in the UK would form a best-practice model for other regions.},
note = {Funding Information: We are grateful for funding from the EPSRC through the UKRI Plastics and Research Innovation Fund (EP/S025200/1). Without the help and support of our partners this project would never have been conceived or executed. Their time and enthusiasm has been invaluable. Many thanks to Alpla, Axion, BASF, Biffa, Braskem, Britvic, BP, Co-op, Defra, Dsposal, Ecosurety, FEC & Northern Gateway, Greater Manchester Combined Authority, iPac Packaging Innovations, Nestl?, PlasticsEurope, PolyTag, Sharpak, Suez, Unilever and two other unnamed companies. Funding Information: We are grateful for funding from the EPSRC through the UKRI Plastics and Research Innovation Fund ( EP/S025200/1 ). Without the help and support of our partners this project would never have been conceived or executed. Their time and enthusiasm has been invaluable. Many thanks to Alpla, Axion, BASF, Biffa, Braskem, Britvic, BP, Co-op, Defra, Dsposal, Ecosurety, FEC & Northern Gateway, Greater Manchester Combined Authority, iPac Packaging Innovations, Nestlé, PlasticsEurope, PolyTag, Sharpak, Suez, Unilever and two other unnamed companies. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 Elsevier B.V. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The use of plastics, and even the existence of this versatile material, has been increasingly demonised in the UK. Public campaigns exist to expand use of recyclable cups and to eliminate plastic straws. Retailers supplying 80% of the market are now members of the UK Plastics Pact, with goals to ensure that products are designed to be recycled, that recycling takes place, and that more recyclate is used in new products.Public awareness has not translated into action, as domestic collection rates for discarded plastics remain pitifully low. We started with a systems-wide vision that these rates can only be increased if all household plastic recycling is made easy and consistent – christened ‘One Bin to Rule Them All’ - and used this premise as a starting point to examine the implications of a fully mixed plastics waste stream entering the supply chain. An agenda for future research was developed through 25 interviews with senior industrial and commercial management and a cross-sector workshop.We determined that if improved household collection rates are to translate into significantly improved recycling rates, rapid progress is required in four areas: standardisation (materials, kerbside collections, waste sorting), infrastructure investment, development of cross-supply chain business models and creation of higher value recyclate. Creating a harmonised national solution to plastic waste sorting is critically dependent on maintaining value in discarded plastics. This in turn reduces plastic leakage into the environment. Enabling this value-based scenario in the UK would form a best-practice model for other regions.
10.
Zeferina, Vasco; Wood, Ruth; Edwards, Rodger; Tian, Wei
Sensitivity analysis of cooling demand applied to a large office building Journal Article
In: Energy and Buildings, vol. 235, 0000, ISSN: 0378-7788.
@article{49a4b4c4fe73474a903c32e03037da5cb,
title = {Sensitivity analysis of cooling demand applied to a large office building},
author = {Vasco Zeferina and Ruth Wood and Rodger Edwards and Wei Tian},
doi = {10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.110703},
issn = {0378-7788},
journal = {Energy and Buildings},
volume = {235},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Previous dynamic building simulation studies have not often focused on analysing the sensitivity of peak loads to input parameters. However, these peak loads may have a critical impact on system design capacities and power network operation. This study aims to examine the sensitivity of cooling demand related results (total electricity demand, HVAC end-use and space cooling) in a large office building using two global sensitivity analysis methods: Morris elementary effect and Sobol indices. More specifically, this paper examines the implications of different type of climates to the uncertainty in these different cooling output results and the sensitivity of the different parameters for each result. Moreover, this paper investigates the difference between the effects of annual and peak analysis for cooling demand of office buildings, which can provide insight on cooling demand from the perspectives of total cooling energy and system capacity for building cooling systems, respectively.This study has found that generally, the changes are more significant for peak demand than for annual demand. The coefficient of variation for the total peak demand is around 25% and 21% for total annual demand. This study identifies that the ventilation rate is the parameter that contributes the largest for the uncertainty in electricity demand of the HVAC end-use, between 50% to 70% of the change (ST), both for annual and peak demand. Regarding the effect on total electricity demand, ventilation rate is still one of the most critical factors, but equipment and lighting densities also become a significant contributor to the sensitivity of the total demand.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Previous dynamic building simulation studies have not often focused on analysing the sensitivity of peak loads to input parameters. However, these peak loads may have a critical impact on system design capacities and power network operation. This study aims to examine the sensitivity of cooling demand related results (total electricity demand, HVAC end-use and space cooling) in a large office building using two global sensitivity analysis methods: Morris elementary effect and Sobol indices. More specifically, this paper examines the implications of different type of climates to the uncertainty in these different cooling output results and the sensitivity of the different parameters for each result. Moreover, this paper investigates the difference between the effects of annual and peak analysis for cooling demand of office buildings, which can provide insight on cooling demand from the perspectives of total cooling energy and system capacity for building cooling systems, respectively.This study has found that generally, the changes are more significant for peak demand than for annual demand. The coefficient of variation for the total peak demand is around 25% and 21% for total annual demand. This study identifies that the ventilation rate is the parameter that contributes the largest for the uncertainty in electricity demand of the HVAC end-use, between 50% to 70% of the change (ST), both for annual and peak demand. Regarding the effect on total electricity demand, ventilation rate is still one of the most critical factors, but equipment and lighting densities also become a significant contributor to the sensitivity of the total demand.
9.
Bullock, Simon
Barriers and solutions for UK shore-power Miscellaneous
0000, (please cite as Bullock, S. 2020. Barriers and solutions for UK shore-power. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester.).
@misc{56738f6623504180b332193bda420558b,
title = {Barriers and solutions for UK shore-power},
author = {Simon Bullock},
abstract = {Ships can cut their pollution in ports by using shore-power, however this is rare in the UK. This report assesses the barriers to implementation of shore-power, and proposes how they can be overcome. The research is based upon interviews with 40 industry stakeholders. It concludes that shore-power has multiple benefits which can be unlocked by Government interventions on capital grants and electricity pricing, and greater collaborative-working between ports, shipping operators and electricity network operators.},
note = {please cite as Bullock, S. 2020. Barriers and solutions for UK shore-power. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
Ships can cut their pollution in ports by using shore-power, however this is rare in the UK. This report assesses the barriers to implementation of shore-power, and proposes how they can be overcome. The research is based upon interviews with 40 industry stakeholders. It concludes that shore-power has multiple benefits which can be unlocked by Government interventions on capital grants and electricity pricing, and greater collaborative-working between ports, shipping operators and electricity network operators.
8.
Ahamed, Ashiq; Huang, Peng; Young, Joshua; Schmid, Alejandro Gallego; Price, Richard; Shaver, Michael P.
Technical and environmental assessment of end-of-life scenarios for plastic packaging with electronic tags Journal Article
In: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, vol. 201, 0000, ISSN: 0921-3449.
@article{ba4cfef4a8704f059a426bc448092eecb,
title = {Technical and environmental assessment of end-of-life scenarios for plastic packaging with electronic tags},
author = {Ashiq Ahamed and Peng Huang and Joshua Young and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Richard Price and Michael P. Shaver},
doi = {10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107341},
issn = {0921-3449},
journal = {Resources, Conservation and Recycling},
volume = {201},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {The end-of-life management of plastics is challenging, especially when inefficient sorting can limit the quality of recycling streams. Radio frequency identification device (RFID) tags can add value to packaging by assisting with post-collection sorting and end-of-life management. We conducted, for the first time, a technical and environmental (LCA) evaluation of plastic packaging with RFID for different end-of-life scenarios, including mechanical recycling (extrusion), chemical recycling (depolymerisation), and energy-from-waste. The recycling process and plastic quality were unaffected by the RFID, although tag particulates can be transferred to the recyclate. LCA results indicated that mechanical recycling of the plastic with either energy-from-waste treatment (Scenario 1) or chemical recycling (Scenario 3) of the RFID is superior to chemical recycling of the plastic and RFID (Scenario 2) among all the impact categories except stratospheric ozone depletion potential. For example, the global warming potential of Scenario 2 (223.63 gCO2e) was determined to be more than twice than that of the Scenarios 1 and 3 (111.04 and 111.78 gCO2e, respectively). However, as per sensitivity analysis, with further advancements particularly in catalyst development and energy mix, chemical recycling can be a potential solution as it ensures the highest recyclate quality and facilitates the longest retention of the material value. The growing application of RFID tags in consumer goods makes the technical and environmental investigation of its effects on the end-of-life management paramount.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The end-of-life management of plastics is challenging, especially when inefficient sorting can limit the quality of recycling streams. Radio frequency identification device (RFID) tags can add value to packaging by assisting with post-collection sorting and end-of-life management. We conducted, for the first time, a technical and environmental (LCA) evaluation of plastic packaging with RFID for different end-of-life scenarios, including mechanical recycling (extrusion), chemical recycling (depolymerisation), and energy-from-waste. The recycling process and plastic quality were unaffected by the RFID, although tag particulates can be transferred to the recyclate. LCA results indicated that mechanical recycling of the plastic with either energy-from-waste treatment (Scenario 1) or chemical recycling (Scenario 3) of the RFID is superior to chemical recycling of the plastic and RFID (Scenario 2) among all the impact categories except stratospheric ozone depletion potential. For example, the global warming potential of Scenario 2 (223.63 gCO2e) was determined to be more than twice than that of the Scenarios 1 and 3 (111.04 and 111.78 gCO2e, respectively). However, as per sensitivity analysis, with further advancements particularly in catalyst development and energy mix, chemical recycling can be a potential solution as it ensures the highest recyclate quality and facilitates the longest retention of the material value. The growing application of RFID tags in consumer goods makes the technical and environmental investigation of its effects on the end-of-life management paramount.
7.
Bullock, Simon; Mason, James; Larkin, Alice
The urgent case for stronger climate targets for international shipping Journal Article
In: Climate Policy, 0000, ISSN: 1469-3062.
@article{b3e3a88dbcd542e19fdfb44128e9081db,
title = {The urgent case for stronger climate targets for international shipping},
author = {Simon Bullock and James Mason and Alice Larkin},
issn = {1469-3062},
journal = {Climate Policy},
publisher = {Earthscan},
abstract = {International shipping is overwhelmingly reliant on fossil fuels, with annual carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to a country the size of Germany. Actions to reduce its emissions are therefore an important element of global efforts to combat climate change. This article re-assesses the international shipping sector’s initial greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets against the Paris Agreement goals. The analysis is based upon the latest data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Maritime Organization (IMO) and uses the concept of carbon budgets to evaluate proportionate 1.5°C emissions pathways for the sector. The consequences of the resulting Paris-compliant pathways for shipping’s existing mitigation targets and strategy are discussed. The article concludes that significantly stronger short- and longer-term targets need to be set for the sector to be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s goals: 34% reductions on 2008 emissions levels by 2030, and zero emissions before 2050, compared with the sector’s existing target of a 50% cut in CO by 2050. Crucially, strengthening the target by the IMO’s strategy revision date of 2023 is imperative. The long asset lifetimes of ships and shipping infrastructure limit the speed of transition such that a delay of even a few years will dictate an untenable rate of decarbonization and increased risk of pushing the already challenging Paris goals out of reach},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
International shipping is overwhelmingly reliant on fossil fuels, with annual carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to a country the size of Germany. Actions to reduce its emissions are therefore an important element of global efforts to combat climate change. This article re-assesses the international shipping sector’s initial greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets against the Paris Agreement goals. The analysis is based upon the latest data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Maritime Organization (IMO) and uses the concept of carbon budgets to evaluate proportionate 1.5°C emissions pathways for the sector. The consequences of the resulting Paris-compliant pathways for shipping’s existing mitigation targets and strategy are discussed. The article concludes that significantly stronger short- and longer-term targets need to be set for the sector to be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s goals: 34% reductions on 2008 emissions levels by 2030, and zero emissions before 2050, compared with the sector’s existing target of a 50% cut in CO by 2050. Crucially, strengthening the target by the IMO’s strategy revision date of 2023 is imperative. The long asset lifetimes of ships and shipping infrastructure limit the speed of transition such that a delay of even a few years will dictate an untenable rate of decarbonization and increased risk of pushing the already challenging Paris goals out of reach
6.
Larkin, Alice; Kuriakose, Jaise; Sharmina, Maria; Anderson, Kevin
What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations Journal Article
In: Climate Policy, vol. 18, no. 6, pp. 690–714, 0000, ISSN: 1469-3062.
@article{e12cb7d7475b4659b8270285cf5735aeb,
title = {What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations},
author = {Alice Larkin and Jaise Kuriakose and Maria Sharmina and Kevin Anderson},
doi = {10.1080/14693062.2017.1346498},
issn = {1469-3062},
journal = {Climate Policy},
volume = {18},
number = {6},
pages = {690–714},
publisher = {Earthscan},
abstract = {A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what ‘2°C’ implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2°C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2°C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and socio-technical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO2 trends of the largest CO2 emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO2 budget, coupled with a ‘what if’ assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The article concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2°C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2°C scenarios.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what ‘2°C’ implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2°C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2°C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and socio-technical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO2 trends of the largest CO2 emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO2 budget, coupled with a ‘what if’ assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The article concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2°C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2°C scenarios.
5.
Larkin, A.; Hoolohan, C.; Mclachlan, C.
Embracing context and complexity to address environmental challenges in the water-energy-food nexus Journal Article
In: Futures, vol. 123, 0000, ISSN: 0016-3287, (Funding Information: This research was conducted with funding support Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC) [Research Grant EP/N00583X/1 ]. Thanks also go to the participants that contributed to the workshop. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.).
@article{7161bcfdefee4f2588d4c4aeaa3e59cab,
title = {Embracing context and complexity to address environmental challenges in the water-energy-food nexus},
author = {A. Larkin and C. Hoolohan and C. Mclachlan},
doi = {10.1016/j.futures.2020.102612},
issn = {0016-3287},
journal = {Futures},
volume = {123},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Wicked environmental challenges require far-reaching changes to social, economic and technical systems. Yet, dominant ways of assessing how to mitigate global environmental change are highly reductive in their treatment of uncertainty and multidimensionality in these systems. Their common focus on optimal solutions, derived from quantitative techno-economic models, downplays social, geographical and political factors that influence the direction and pace of change. Taking a transdisciplinary approach and using a water-energy-food nexus framing, we demonstrate how participatory scenario analysis can assist stakeholders in articulating why many technologically-focused solutions to complex environmental challenges fail to achieve their intended goals, and how alternative solutions that recognise uncertainty and interdependency can be up-scaled. The findings illustrate the critical importance of changing social, geographical and governance conditions for innovation. The participatory method enables stakeholders to examine the implications of possible future changes and to navigate emergent difficulties and opportunities so that environmental challenges can be addressed effectively. The method allows participants to imagine radically different configurations of socio-technological systems, and examine their feasibility in a manner that challenges the current paradigm in which technologies are more feasible, effective and politically acceptable solutions to global societal challenges than those requiring changes to lifestyles and governance.},
note = {Funding Information: This research was conducted with funding support Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC) [Research Grant EP/N00583X/1 ]. Thanks also go to the participants that contributed to the workshop. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Wicked environmental challenges require far-reaching changes to social, economic and technical systems. Yet, dominant ways of assessing how to mitigate global environmental change are highly reductive in their treatment of uncertainty and multidimensionality in these systems. Their common focus on optimal solutions, derived from quantitative techno-economic models, downplays social, geographical and political factors that influence the direction and pace of change. Taking a transdisciplinary approach and using a water-energy-food nexus framing, we demonstrate how participatory scenario analysis can assist stakeholders in articulating why many technologically-focused solutions to complex environmental challenges fail to achieve their intended goals, and how alternative solutions that recognise uncertainty and interdependency can be up-scaled. The findings illustrate the critical importance of changing social, geographical and governance conditions for innovation. The participatory method enables stakeholders to examine the implications of possible future changes and to navigate emergent difficulties and opportunities so that environmental challenges can be addressed effectively. The method allows participants to imagine radically different configurations of socio-technological systems, and examine their feasibility in a manner that challenges the current paradigm in which technologies are more feasible, effective and politically acceptable solutions to global societal challenges than those requiring changes to lifestyles and governance.
4.
Bullock, Simon; Larkin, Alice; Mason, James
Course to Zero Consultation: UK domestic maritime decarbonisation. Response from the Tyndall Centre, University of Manchester Miscellaneous
0000.
@misc{0e159f4f2f4247359a35401fa1775f75b,
title = {Course to Zero Consultation: UK domestic maritime decarbonisation. Response from the Tyndall Centre, University of Manchester},
author = {Simon Bullock and Alice Larkin and James Mason},
abstract = {Response focussing 5 issues: ambition, feasibility, scope, technology and accounting.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
Response focussing 5 issues: ambition, feasibility, scope, technology and accounting.
3.
Bullock, Simon; Higgins, Eliott; Crossan, James; Larkin, Alice
Improving shore power project economics at the Port of Aberdeen Journal Article
In: Marine Policy, vol. 152, 0000, ISSN: 0308-597X.
@article{22733c3001db44e69fdc665c2e2b5129b,
title = {Improving shore power project economics at the Port of Aberdeen},
author = {Simon Bullock and Eliott Higgins and James Crossan and Alice Larkin},
doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105625},
issn = {0308-597X},
journal = {Marine Policy},
volume = {152},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Shore power is one of just a few technologies available to the shipping sector that has potential to deliver carbon reductions this decade in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. Shore power connects ships to land-side electricity grids, reducing fossil fuel use while at berth in port and at the same time improving air quality. It is also an enabling technology for the future deployment of electric vessels, allowing battery recharge. Despite being a proven technology, global deployment has been slow, with the literature pointing to clear economic barriers to its uptake. These include high capital costs for ports, high taxes on land-side electricity and the global lack of taxation on ships’ fuel oils. Yet there is a gap in understanding around how to overcome these barriers. Here, a case-study of the Port of Aberdeen in Scotland is used to explore how the economic case for a shore-power system can be improved. A multi-criteria analysis and techno-economic assessment, coupled with port-user and supplier engagement, applicable to other port contexts, sheds light on how to create the much-needed acceleration of shore-power deployment. By building a collaborative approach between the port, ship operators and national government, project viability can be unlocked to more closely align the sector's future carbon pathway with the high ambitions laid out in Paris 2015.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Shore power is one of just a few technologies available to the shipping sector that has potential to deliver carbon reductions this decade in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. Shore power connects ships to land-side electricity grids, reducing fossil fuel use while at berth in port and at the same time improving air quality. It is also an enabling technology for the future deployment of electric vessels, allowing battery recharge. Despite being a proven technology, global deployment has been slow, with the literature pointing to clear economic barriers to its uptake. These include high capital costs for ports, high taxes on land-side electricity and the global lack of taxation on ships’ fuel oils. Yet there is a gap in understanding around how to overcome these barriers. Here, a case-study of the Port of Aberdeen in Scotland is used to explore how the economic case for a shore-power system can be improved. A multi-criteria analysis and techno-economic assessment, coupled with port-user and supplier engagement, applicable to other port contexts, sheds light on how to create the much-needed acceleration of shore-power deployment. By building a collaborative approach between the port, ship operators and national government, project viability can be unlocked to more closely align the sector's future carbon pathway with the high ambitions laid out in Paris 2015.
2.
Adelekan, Adeyemi; Sharmina, Maria
Designing digitally enabled collaborative business models for a plastic circular economy in the UK Conference
0000, (World Resources Forum 2023 : Rethinking Value - Resources for Planetary Wellbeing, WRF'23 ; Conference date: 04-09-2023 Through 06-09-2023).
@conference{3ae0d107a9f94d609f0fdabb3b434102b,
title = {Designing digitally enabled collaborative business models for a plastic circular economy in the UK},
author = {Adeyemi Adelekan and Maria Sharmina},
url = {https://wrf2023.org/},
note = {World Resources Forum 2023 : Rethinking Value - Resources for Planetary Wellbeing, WRF'23 ; Conference date: 04-09-2023 Through 06-09-2023},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {conference}
}
1.
Anthony, E.; Syvitski, J.; Cohen, K. M.; Saito, Y.; Zăinescu, F.; Vespremeanu-Stroe, A.; j. Nicholls, R.; Marriner, N.; Amorosi, A.; Maselli, V.; s. j. Minderhoud, P.; Tamura, T.; Day, J.; d. Woodroffe, C.; Preoteasa, L.; Tatui, F.; Sabatier, F.; Morhange, C.; Besset, M.; Kemp, P.; Chen, Z.
A 7000-year record of human influence on Global River Deltas: Geomorphology, stratigraphy, the Anthropocene overprint and future Journal Article
In: Earth-Science Reviews, vol. 271, 0000, ISSN: 0012-8252, (Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article.).
@article{1aa59fbf564a450f9c4b4f8d51733942,
title = {A 7000-year record of human influence on Global River Deltas: Geomorphology, stratigraphy, the Anthropocene overprint and future},
author = {E. Anthony and J. Syvitski and K. M. Cohen and Y. Saito and F. Zăinescu and A. Vespremeanu-Stroe and R. j. Nicholls and N. Marriner and A. Amorosi and V. Maselli and P. s. j. Minderhoud and T. Tamura and J. Day and C. d. Woodroffe and L. Preoteasa and F. Tatui and F. Sabatier and C. Morhange and M. Besset and P. Kemp and Z. Chen},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105302},
issn = {0012-8252},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
volume = {271},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {With the inception of most of the world's deltas about 8000 years ago, deltaic floodplains started offering, about a thousand years later, arable land, water and ecosystem services for early human settlements. We identify delta geomorphic changes and proxies and geoarchaeological markers of the human presence on deltas and in their stratigraphy over the last 7000 years, and from ancient maps. We analyse the human-delta relationship in four phases: Neolithic, Metal Ages, Common Era, and Anthropocene, marking increasing human adaptation to changing delta geomorphology modulated by fluctuations in relative sea level and fluvial sediment supply. These adaptations fostered the emergence of urbanization and served as a catalyst for technological innovation and human modification of deltas. The sparse Neolithic human presence in delta stratigraphy gradually expanded to become pervasive in the contemporary Anthropocene, reflecting the twin effects of global population growth and increasingly favourable conditions for humans. We explore the links between early deltaic and non-deltaic communities and gauge the impact of humans on sediment supply from river catchments, and its consequences, notably in terms of frequent delta avulsions, expansion or vulnerability, and explore its inextricable links with climate variation. The Anthropocene is witnessing a profoundly transformed, globally distributed, human-managed delta landscape dominated by important urbanization, reduction in sediment supply, increasing intentional but also unintentional delta modifications, and vulnerability to sea-level rise compounded by exacerbated subsidence. Understanding the human-delta relationship over the past 7000 years contributes to fostering stronger links between geoscience and cultural heritage, to better delta management and sustainability, including an upstream river-basin scale perspective, and to better anticipation of delta futures, notably under the threat of sea-level rise.},
note = {Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
With the inception of most of the world's deltas about 8000 years ago, deltaic floodplains started offering, about a thousand years later, arable land, water and ecosystem services for early human settlements. We identify delta geomorphic changes and proxies and geoarchaeological markers of the human presence on deltas and in their stratigraphy over the last 7000 years, and from ancient maps. We analyse the human-delta relationship in four phases: Neolithic, Metal Ages, Common Era, and Anthropocene, marking increasing human adaptation to changing delta geomorphology modulated by fluctuations in relative sea level and fluvial sediment supply. These adaptations fostered the emergence of urbanization and served as a catalyst for technological innovation and human modification of deltas. The sparse Neolithic human presence in delta stratigraphy gradually expanded to become pervasive in the contemporary Anthropocene, reflecting the twin effects of global population growth and increasingly favourable conditions for humans. We explore the links between early deltaic and non-deltaic communities and gauge the impact of humans on sediment supply from river catchments, and its consequences, notably in terms of frequent delta avulsions, expansion or vulnerability, and explore its inextricable links with climate variation. The Anthropocene is witnessing a profoundly transformed, globally distributed, human-managed delta landscape dominated by important urbanization, reduction in sediment supply, increasing intentional but also unintentional delta modifications, and vulnerability to sea-level rise compounded by exacerbated subsidence. Understanding the human-delta relationship over the past 7000 years contributes to fostering stronger links between geoscience and cultural heritage, to better delta management and sustainability, including an upstream river-basin scale perspective, and to better anticipation of delta futures, notably under the threat of sea-level rise.
