Tyndall Centre Publications

@article{0bbe543d5a7f43a8a6b940ecfe718852,

title = {A global assemblage of regional prescribed burn records — GlobalRx},

author = {Alice Hsu and Matthew W. Jones and Jane R. Thurgood and Adam J. P. Smith and Rachel Carmenta and John T. Abatzoglou and Liana O. Anderson and Hamish Clarke and Stefan H. Doerr and Paulo M. Fernandes and Crystal A. Kolden and Cristina Santín and Tercia Strydom and Corinne Le Quéré and Davide Ascoli and Marc Castellnou and Johann G. Goldammer and Nuno Ricardo Gracinhas Nunes Guiomar and Elena A. Kukavskaya and Eric Rigolot and Veerachai Tanpipat and Morgan Varner and Youhei Yamashita and Johan Baard and Ricardo Barreto and Javier Becerra and Egbert Brunn and Niclas Bergius and Julia Carlsson and Chad Cheney and Dave Druce and Andy Elliot and Jay Evans and Rodrigo De Moraes Falleiro and Nuria Prat-Guitart and J. Kevin Hiers and Johannes W. Kaiser and Lisa Macher and Dave Morris and Jane Park and César Robles and Rosa María Román-Cuesta and Gernot Rücker and Francisco Senra and Lara Steil and Jose Alejandro Lopez Valverde and Emma Zerr},

doi = {10.1038/s41597-025-04941-w},

issn = {2052-4463},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Scientific Data},

volume = {12},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Prescribed burning (RxB) is a land management tool used widely for reducing wildfire hazard, restoring biodiversity, and managing natural resources. However, RxB can only be carried out safely and effectively under certain seasonal or weather conditions. Under climate change, shifts in the frequency and timing of these weather conditions are expected but analyses of climate change impacts have been restricted to select few regions partly due to a paucity of RxB records at global scale. Here, we introduce GlobalRx, a dataset including 204,517 RxB records from 1979–2023, covering 16 countries and 209 terrestrial ecoregions. For each record, we add a comprehensive suite of meteorological variables that are regularly used in RxB prescriptions by fire management agencies, such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed. We also characterise the environmental setting of each RxB, such as land cover and protected area status. GlobalRx enables the bioclimatic range of conditions suitable for RxB to be defined regionally, thus unlocking new potential to study shifting opportunities for RxB planning and implementation under future climate.},

note = {Code availability: All code used to add global layers to GlobalRx (meteorology, ecological features) and produce all figures are archived in our Zenodo repository (https://zenodo.org/records/13379463). Code used to preprocess global layers, as well as preprocessed global layer datafiles, are also included, where relevant. Acknowledgements: M.W.J. was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NE/V01417X/1). A.H. was funded by the programme Critical Decade for Climate Change Leverhulme Doctoral Scholars (DS-2020-028). J.R.T. and A.J.P.S. were funded by the European Commission Horizon 2020 (H2020) VERIFY project (no. 776810). SHD was supported by Natural Environment Research Council grant IDEAL Fire (NE/X005143/1) and the project FirEURisk, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003890). CAK was supported by the US Department of Agriculture NIFA (award 2022-67019-36435). RC was funded by the Marie Curie Network Grant (award 101086416), and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. HC was funded by the Westpac Scholars Trust via a Westpac Research Fellowship. YY was funded by KAKENHI (no. JP22H03714 and JP23K24969). GR received support through the ZIM program of the German Ministry of Economy, grant number 16KN052420. E.A.K. was funded by State Assignment Project # FWES-2024-0040. LOA was funded by the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)(projects: 2021/07660-2 and 2020/16457-3) and by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) (project 409531/2021-9 and productivity scholarship process: 314473/2020-3). PMF was supported by National Funds from FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020 (doi: 10.54499/UIDB/04033/2020). N.G. was funded by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund in the framework of the Interreg V-A Spain–Portugal program (POCTEP) under the FIREPOCTEP+ (Ref. 0139_FIREPOCTEP_MAS_6_E) project and by National Funds through FCT under the projects UIDB/05183/2020, UIDP/05183/2020 and LA/P/0121/2020 (doi: 10.54499/UIDB/05183/2020; doi: 10.54499/UIDP/05183/2020; doi: 10.54499/LA/P/0121/2020) and European Union, Marie Curie Staff Exchange Grant (FIRE-ADAPT 101086416), Pau Costa Foundation [Prat-Guitart]. The authors thank Nicola van Wilgen for assisting with the collation of South Africa National Parks RxB records, and Bernard Lambert for providing RxB records from Pyrénées-Orientales department of south-eastern France.},

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@article{3232f2d45b59419283f50d9ad0adc5dc,

title = {A systems perspective for climate adaptation in deltas},

author = {Sepehr Eslami and Gualbert Oude Essink and Amelie Paszkowski and Katharina Seeger and Philip S. J. Minderhoud and Kees Sloff and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-025-02368-0},

issn = {1758-678X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {15},

number = {7},

pages = {687–691},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Deltas are complex and are among the most vulnerable landforms under climate change. Studying them collectively highlights common stressors that drive their most significant challenges. A holistic conceptual framing of a delta and its feeding river basin is fundamental to effective adaptation planning.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

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@article{43696acdeecf4a5d8d2bf349da8f5d20,

title = {Corporate concentration and power matter for agency in food systems},

author = {Jennifer Clapp and Amar Laila and Costanza Conti and Christina Hicks and Rachael Vriezen and Line Gordon and Nitya Rao},

doi = {10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102897},

issn = {0306-9192},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Food Policy},

volume = {134},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {High levels of corporate concentration and power in agrifood supply chains raise important policy concerns because they can affect food systems in adverse ways. In this paper, we argue that increased corporate concentration and power in food systems has the capacity to undermine people’s agency– that is, their capability to make choices and exercise their voice. We explore three dimensions of the relationship between concentrated corporate power and people’s agency in food systems. First, dominant firms within highly concentrated food system segments can exercise market power, which enables them to earn excess profits – often by charging higher prices, suppressing wages, and weakening livelihood opportunities. Second, dominant agrifood firms have the capacity to shape material conditions within food systems – determining prevailing technologies used in food production, working conditions, levels of processing of packaged food items, and food environments – in ways that can affect people’s choices. Third, dominant agrifood firms can exercise political power by actively pursuing strategies to influence food policy and governance processes via lobbying and other more indirect measures, weakening opportunities for broader democratic participation in food systems governance. Given these potential outcomes, more policy attention should be paid to corporate concentration and its implications for agency within food systems.},

note = {Funding Information: This research was in part supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, grant # 435-2020-0664 (Clapp) and the Canada Reserach Chairs Program (Clapp).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

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@article{f9088dec2a5e49f99386bdc898ebafc9,

title = {Waste pickers in the Global South: understanding the key features that underpin the dominance of informality},

author = {Nicolás Labra Cataldo and Alejandro Gallego-Schmid and Carly McLachlan},

doi = {10.1080/15487733.2025.2478697},

issn = {1548-7733},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy},

volume = {21},

number = {1},

publisher = {National Biological Information Infrastructure},

abstract = {E-waste management in the Global South relies heavily on the informal sector. The associated workforce, vast in number, faces exposure to harmful substances and often represents society’s most vulnerable segments. While the coexistence of formality and informality has been widely documented, researchers have largely overlooked the features that lead to the thriving of informality. This study identifies these aspects through semi-structured interviews and participant observations with urban e-waste stakeholders in the Santiago Metropolitan Region of Chile. We discern six distinct working profiles (flea-market traders, scrap collectors, scrap dealers, scrapyard operators, collection-center managers, and treatment-company operators) that span a broad informality spectrum. From the characterization of the operations and labor aspects, we distill three key elements that determine the dominance of informality: agility (income-generation speed), capillarity (reach in the material collection), and flexibility (work-time adaptability). Our findings indicate that some profiles of the formal sector in the Santiago Metropolitan Region operate in a grey area with poor operational standards and a lack of contractual relationships, aligning them more closely with informality. We advocate for understanding and utilizing the features of informality to develop integration strategies and suggest a redefined understanding of formality in line with the diverse dimensions of vulnerability in the context of informality. While we identify potential opportunities to enhance a circular economy by embracing some of the advantages of the informal sector, future research should gauge the potential contributions of informality in terms of increasing collection and treatment rates and assess their environmental impact compared to formal services.},

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@article{57c517b101c847639b3b8006a517c8e9,

title = {Risk taking with social consequences},

author = {Paul Clist and Ben D'Exelle and Arjan Verschoor},

doi = {10.1080/00220388.2025.2453523},

issn = {0022-0388},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Journal of Development Studies},

volume = {61},

number = {7},

pages = {1148–1167},

publisher = {Routledge},

abstract = {Strong egalitarian norms and preferences may affect entrepreneurship. If people feel guilty of their success they may take fewer risks, whilst if they expect their successes to be celebrated, they would take more risks. In this paper we ask whether anticipated social consequences influence risky choices. Do people take more, less or the same risk when inequality results from risky choice? We provide experimental evidence from rural Uganda. Subjects choose lotteries for themselves and a partner under different risk resolutions, allowing us to identify their type. We find anticipated social consequences influence risk taking for most people, as only one quarter are indifferent. Two-fifths are ex post inequality seeking, holding their own pay off constant, and take more risk when inequality is common. This possibility is not considered by previous experiments in the West, but is the largest category for our sample. Only one-third are ex-post inequality averse, reducing inequality of outcomes at a cost to their expected earnings. We show types are robust, and document large gender-based heterogeneity. These results imply inequality-aversion is not holding back risk taking on average. Rather there is great heterogeneity in how people respond to anticipated social consequences.},

note = {Code availability: The data and code are available here https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MN2BMQ and https://paulclist.github.io/. Funding information: The research was funded by ESRC-DFID grant ES/J008893/1.},

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@article{7558e9a541f948139e135f856d99026c,

title = {Intermittent estuaries deserve global attention as vulnerable and vital ecosystems},

author = {Danial Khojasteh and Shivanesh Rao and Sarah McSweeney and Raimundo Ibaceta and Robert J. Nicholls and Jon French and William Glamore and John L. Largier and Janine Adams and Michael G. Hughes and Michael Barry and Hannah E. Power and Jiabi Du and Tobias A. Tucker and Rodrigo Cienfuegos and Patricio A. Catalan and David Hanslow},

doi = {10.1038/s43247-025-02428-5},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-06},

journal = {Communications Earth and Environment},

volume = {6},

publisher = {Nature Research},

abstract = {Intermittently closed estuaries provide important ecosystem services but are often overlooked in coastal and catchment research and management. These estuaries are highly vulnerable to human and climate disturbances due to their episodic closure to the ocean, yet remain understudied. This study maps 2245 intermittent estuaries globally, whose catchments currently support 55 million people, with projections of up to 101 million by 2100. Analysis of three decades of scholarly literature revealed that only 7% of these estuaries have been studied. Research on intermittent estuaries comprises 0.5% of all estuarine literature, despite representing 4–5% of estuaries globally. Major research gaps exist in Asia, South America, and Africa—regions with large, vulnerable populations. Over 90% of research on intermittent estuaries is conducted in (southern) Africa, Oceania, and North America, with most studies focusing on local physico-chemical and eco-hydro-geomorphological processes. This assessment underscores the need to expand research priorities to include ecosystem services, climate and human disturbances, and management, with greater international collaboration and leadership from intergovernmental organisations.},

note = {Data availability statement: In addition to the datasets provided in the Supplementary Information and Supplementary Data, the underlying data used to generate the figures in the manuscript are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15525709.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{6d81492361fa42a2a92f266fa021c4cf,

title = {Powering Africa’s sustainable future: The role of cross-border electricity trade on renewable electricity generation},

author = {Mercy Adaji and Nicholas Vasilakos and Bereket Kebede},

doi = {10.1177/0958305X251343068},

issn = {0958-305X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-02},

journal = {Energy & Environment},

publisher = {Sage Publications},

abstract = {Electricity trade plays a pivotal role in Africa's energy transition pathway, aiding in the distribution of new infrastructure costs, addressing the intermittency of renewable energies, and capitalising on their spatial concentration. Despite these advantages driving the establishment of a regional single electricity market, trading volumes remain relatively low. This study empirically explores Africa's cross-border electricity trade's influence on renewable electricity generation. Utilising a fixed effects model, data for 21 African countries from the World Bank and the International Energy Agency spanning 1996 to 2020 is collected and analysed. The results reveal that a 1% increase in electricity trade significantly raises the share of renewables in total electricity output by approximately 0.05%. Additionally, it is noted that net-exporting countries exhibit weaker positive impacts from electricity trade compared to net importers. Our results highlight the importance of governance quality as a driver of growth in the sector.},

note = {Funding information: This work was supported by the HORIZON EUROPE Climate, Energy and Mobility (Grant No. 101081377).},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{6a2684c29dd14c0ebdd97b9f89edecbb,

title = {Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?},

author = {John Kenny and Michael S. Lewis-Beck},

doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933},

issn = {0261-3794},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Electoral Studies},

volume = {95},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.},

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@article{01c14b93b4a040d4810840f05551bdec,

title = {Unveiling pervasive assumptions: Moving beyond the poverty-biodiversity loss association in conservation},

author = {Rachel Carmenta and Mairon G. Bastos Lima and Shofwan A. B. Choiruzzad and Neil Dawson and Natalia Estrada-Carmona and Christina Hicks and Giorgos Kallis and Eric Nana and Evan Killick and Alexander Lees and Adrian Martin and Unai Pascual and Nathalie Pettorelli and James Reed and Esther Turnhout and Bhaskar Vira and Julie G. Zaehringer and Jos Barlow},

doi = {10.1016/j.cosust.2025.101537},

issn = {1877-3435},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability},

volume = {74},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {This paper reflects on the continued persistence of the idea in conservation research and practice that poverty drives biodiversity loss (the poverty-biodiversity loss association [PBLA]). We draw on evidence to show how the PBLA has proven resistant to counter-evidence and is particularly visible at local-level implementation, and is often implicit in conservation strategies. We untangle three underlying reasons that help to explain why the PBLA has persisted under a verisimilitude (seeming truth) that can leave it hiding in plain sight. In doing so, we offer conservation science and practice the means to recognise and thereby remedy this thinking where it exists, and in so doing, advance conservation towards its aims of equitable and effective delivery. We outline how the Connected Conservation model may be better equipped to challenge the disproportionate role of wealth in biodiversity decline whilst empowering biodiversity stewards and their plural knowledge, values and governance systems.},

note = {Data Availability: No data were used for the research described in the article.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{59f76545d25c4774aebbfb7ded0c2c91,

title = {Process-based machine learning observationally constrains future regional warming projections},

author = {Sophie Wilkinson and Peer Nowack and Manoj Joshi},

doi = {10.1029/2025JH000698},

issn = {2993-5210},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation},

volume = {2},

number = {2},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {We present the results of a novel process-based machine learning method to constrain climate model uncertainty in future regional temperature projections. Ridge-ERA5 - a ridge regression model - learns coefficients to represent observed relationships between daily near-surface temperature anomalies and predictor variables from ERA5 reanalysis in Northern Hemisphere land regions. Combining the historically constrained Ridge-ERA5 coefficients with inputs from CMIP6 future projections enables a derivation of observational constraints on regional warming. Although the multi-model mean falls within the constrained range of temperatures in all tested regions, a subset of models which predict the greatest degree of warming tend to be excluded and decomposition of the constraint into predictor variable contributions suggests error-cancellation of feedbacks in some models and regions.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: All reanalysis and CMIP6 data used in this study are publicly available. A specific list of data sets and variables accessed, data pre-processing steps, and Python code for analysis are archived in Zenodo and available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15115895 (Wilkinson, 2025). Acknowledgments: S.W. was supported by a University of East Anglia Faculty of Science PhD studentship. P.N. and M.J. were supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/V012045/1). We acknowledge the WCRP, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate-modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF. We further used the JASMIN postprocessing system (Lawrence et al., 2013) operated by the Science and Technology Facilities Council on behalf of the UK Natural Environment Research Council. The analysis presented in this paper was mostly carried out on the High Performance Computing Cluster supported by the Research and Specialist Computing Support service at the University of East Anglia.},

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@article{cc28d2ea5e00499b97f4fe9830622603,

title = {Avoid cherry-picking targets and embrace holistic conservation to pursue the global diodiversity framework},

author = {James Reed and Jos Barlow and Rachel Carmenta and Sima Fakheran and Amy Ickowitz and Terry Sunderland},

doi = {10.1111/conl.13104},

issn = {1755-263X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Conservation Letters},

volume = {18},

number = {3},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {The Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) marked a renewed commitment to addressing the global biodiversity crisis. This framework of four goals and 23 interim targets is intended to guide and accelerate conservation efforts over the next 25 years and is more ambitious than its predecessor, the Aichi 2020 targets. However, the pursuit of multilateral agreements is dependent upon national pledges, and the limited success of the Aichi targets shows that national pledges are of little worth without aligned (sub)national action. We assessed the submitted National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plans of several member countries to determine their alignment with the bold ambition of the GBF. We find a lack of alignment between the GBF and country submissions across many targets, with the notable exception of Target 3—commonly interpreted as increasing protected area coverage to 30% by 2030. Reflecting on the submissions, recent developments, and our collective experience, we outline key considerations that could help guide future submissions and implementation strategies. We caution against cherry-picking specific targets, highlighting that an overemphasis on Target 3 will fail to achieve the overarching vision of living in harmony with nature. This requires a more holistic and inclusive approach to conservation and a focus on the full suite of GBF targets.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: The authors have nothing to report. Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{84da7112a8a3407fb61db34667f188da,

title = {Devegetation is a widespread driver of fire in the Brazilian Cerrado},

author = {Gian Luca Spadoni and Jose V. Moris and Carlota Segura-Garcia and Ana Carolina Pessoa and Matthew W. Jones and Manoela S. Machado and Renzo Motta and Ane Auxiliadora Costa Alencar and Davide Ascoli and Imma Oliveras Menor},

doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125637},

issn = {0301-4797},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},

volume = {385},

publisher = {Academic Press Inc.},

abstract = {The Cerrado is the largest tropical savanna in the world, featuring a wide range of vegetation types with different sensitivity to fire. The structure, functioning and rich biodiversity of the non-forest formations is intimately associated with the presence of fire, which historically has acted both as a natural disturbance and as a tool used by Indigenous communities. Currently, the Brazilian Cerrado is threatened by substantial devegetation (i.e., conversion of native vegetation to human land uses) and alterations in the fire regime (e.g., frequency, seasonality), negatively impacting biodiversity, local communities, and global climate regulation. Although it is known that land conversion can lead to fires in the Cerrado, the extent and proportion of burned area attributable to this process remain unclear. This study, covering the period 2003–2020, quantifies both the surface of native vegetation lost through land conversion (devegetation) and the area burned by fires ignited in converted areas, focusing on the portion of the Cerrado included in the state of Mato Grosso and the MATOPIBA region. Using geospatial data on devegetation (PRODES Cerrado), fires (Global Fire Atlas), and land use (MapBiomas), we classified individual fires into Devegetation Related Fires (DRF) or devegetation Independent Fires (IF). DRF were those ignited within or in close proximity to devegetated patches up to two years following the conversion, while IF included all other fires. We further examined differences in seasonality and size distribution between DRF and IF, and analysed DRF prevalence across different land tenures, including Indigenous Territories, Protected Areas, and private lands. Over the 18-year study period, DRF burned, with distinctive seasonality and reduced average fire size, approximately 20 million hectares within the study area, which represents about a quarter of the total native vegetation area. This accounts for approximately 12 % of the total burned area in the study region and is comparable to the size of the devegetated area during the same period (around 15 million hectares). Although governance systems like strictly Protected Areas and Indigenous Territories limited devegetation, they could not prevent impacts from DRF, which burned 12 % and 16 % of their total native vegetation area, respectively. These findings highlight the urgent need to halt devegetation and regulate fire use in the Cerrado through integrated fire management policies.},

note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2e0936cd971d4ce89286bc0304660014,

title = {Empowering city decision-makers: A practical guide to learning for decarbonisation at the city-level},

author = {Harry Barton and Carly McLachlan and Claire Hoolohan and Christopher Jones},

doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104046},

issn = {1462-9011},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Environmental Science & Policy},

volume = {167},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The actions of cities will be pivotal in our transition to a low-carbon future. City-level decision-makers are well placed to influence and facilitate this transition. Decarbonising transport, buildings, and energy is key to combating the climate crisis and reaching self-assigned city-level carbon targets to curb warming and protect the environment. However, deciding which decarbonisation projects to implement is an issue. Choosing the wrong project could have financial or reputational repercussions, thus deciding on an appropriate set of interventions can be challenging for city decision-makers. Learning about the successes and challenges of city-level sustainability projects is vital for decision-makers at the city-level hoping to create of their own low-carbon city. To this end, this article outlines a new, practical method developed with city-level decision-makers that identifies key learning opportunities from other cities based on their own decarbonisation priorities. This city-to-city learning framework makes selecting decarbonisation projects easier and more efficient, as it enables users to identify decarbonisation projects that align with their environmental plans and priorities. The Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) provides a case study for the application of this framework, demonstrating how the learning framework is used to narrow down the most suitable decarbonisation projects for the Greater Manchester city-region, based on bespoke sustainability criteria and targets. This work contributes to the formalisation of city-to-city learning pathways, outlining the ways that cities want to learn from others, and highlighting where to begin this learning process to accelerate climate action.},

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@article{c1687f01c3f44c79bb98b4756e46e053,

title = {Equity or profit? Understanding the social sustainability challenges of mine water heating network implementation},

author = {Jingyi Li and Cathy Hollis and Alejandro Gallego Schmid},

doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2025.104062},

issn = {2214-6296},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},

volume = {124},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The decarbonisation of the heating sector illustrates the broader tensions between technological innovation, environmental sustainability, and socio-economic equity. Mine water, an indigenous geothermal resource found in disused and flooded coal mines, has the potential to address these tensions through its capacity to deliver renewable, locally sourced heat. However, despite its capability to alleviate fuel poverty, generate employment, and support net-zero ambitions, mine water heating remains underutilised in the UK. This study examines the barriers to implementation, focusing on the Northeast of England—a region historically shaped by coal mining and now marked by economic deprivation and social inequality. Drawing on 33 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders, such as policymakers, industry representatives, local authorities, and residents, the research identifies a range of systemic obstacles. These include protracted and opaque regulatory processes, insufficient financial support mechanisms, and a lack of attention to social equity within policy frameworks. The findings reveal a disconnect between stakeholder expectations and the realities of project deliverability, as well as a narrow policy focus on climate targets that often sidelines pressing social sustainability concerns, such as equitable energy access and community well-being. This research argues for an integrated approach that repositions mine water heating as both an environmental and social intervention. Policy recommendations include creating ring-fenced funding for deprived regions, investing in capacity-building initiatives, and reforming governance processes to enhance project feasibility and inclusivity. Reframing mine water heating as a tool for achieving socially equitable energy transitions underscores its transformative potential for marginalised coalfield communities in the UK and comparable regions globally.},

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@article{e802d15ad5fb42b29eac083fbd876114,

title = {Threshold: how smart homes change us inside and out: by Heather Suzanne Woods. Tuscaloosa, Alabama, The University of Alabama Press, 2024, 226 pp., $34.95 (paperback), ISBN 978-0-8173-6143-3; $110.00 (hardback), ISBN 978-0-8173-2194-9; $34.95 (eBook), ISBN 978-0-8173-9497-4},

author = {Vinicius Juliani Pereira},

doi = {10.1080/14649365.2024.2443323},

issn = {1464-9365},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Social & Cultural Geography},

volume = {26},

number = {6},

pages = {719–720},

publisher = {Routledge},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{a2e6223c5a804ae593edc8aec5b5bc62,

title = {National horizon scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate},

author = {John W. Redhead and Matt Brown and Jeff Price and Emma Robinson and Robert J. Nicholls and Rachel Warren and Richard F. Pywell},

doi = {10.1002/cli2.70007},

issn = {2692-4587},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-06-01},

journal = {Climate Resilience and Sustainability},

volume = {4},

number = {1},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Most national assessments of climate change-related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process-based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high-level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre-industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{0da0887d838445718d77a836c8b94bda,

title = {Did COVID-19 surveillance system sensitivity change after Omicron? A retrospective observational study in England},

author = {Julii Brainard and Iain R. Lake and Roger A. Morbey and Alex J. Elliot and Paul R. Hunter},

doi = {10.1186/s12879-025-11120-0},

issn = {1471-2334},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-05-29},

journal = {BMC Infectious Diseases},

volume = {25},

publisher = {BioMed Central},

abstract = {Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic in England, increases and falls in COVID-19 cases were monitored using many surveillance systems (SS). However, surveillance sensitivity may have changed as different variants were introduced to the population, due to greater disease-resistance after comprehensive vaccination programmes and widespread natural infection or for other reasons. Methods: Time series data from ten epidemic trackers in England that were available Sept 2021-June 2022 were compared to each other using Spearman correlation statistics. Least biased and most timely SS in England were identified as ‘best’ standard epidemic trackers, while other COVID-19 tracking datasets we denote as complementary trackers. We compared the best standard trackers with each other and with the complementary trackers. Correlation calculations with 95% confidence intervals were made between complementary and best standard epidemic trackers. We tested the hypothesis that correlation with the best trackers was especially poor during transition periods when Delta, Omicron BA.1 and Omicron BA.2 sublineages were each dominant. Daily ascertainment percentages of incident cases that each SS detected during each variant’s dominance were calculated. We tested for statistically significant (at p < 0.05) differences in the distribution of the ascertainment values during each COVID-19 variant’s dominance, using Welch’s oneway ANOVA. Results: Spearman rho correlation was significantly positive between most complementary and the best trackers over the whole period. There was no apparent visual indication that correlations were especially poor during transition period from Delta to BA.1. There were falls in correlation in the transition period from BA.1 to BA.2 but these falls were relatively small compared to correlation fluctuations over the full period. Ascertainment was highest in the Delta period for complementary systems against the least biased tracker of incidence. Ascertainment was statistically different between the three variant-dominant periods. Conclusions: From September 2021 to June 2022, complementary SS generally reflected case rises and falls. Ascertainment was highest in the Delta-dominant period but no complementary tracker was highly stable. Factors other than which variant was dominant seem likely to have affected how well each tracker reflected true case rises and falls.},

note = {Availability of data and materials: None of the original datasets were collected by ourselves and therefore they should not be redistributed by us. Zoe application, ONSCISE, COVID-19 hospital admissions and Pillar 1 & 2 data all have been accessible in the public domain. Applications for requests to access relevant anonymised data included in this study held by UKSA should be submitted to the UKHSA Office for Data Release at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/accessing-ukhsa-protected-data/accessing-ukhsa-protected-data ). R scripts used for analysis and to generate plots are available at https://github.com/JuliiBrainard/SpotOmicron/tree/main. Funding information: This work was funded and authors were financially renumerated by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King’s College London in partnership with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) in collaboration with the University of East Anglia. AJE is also affiliated with the NIHR HPRU in Gastrointestinal Infections at the University of Liverpool. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, NIHR, UEA, any HPRU, Department of Health or UKHSA. The funders had no role in writing the manuscript. Authors were not precluded from accessing data that supported this study and authors accept responsibility for this submission.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}