Tyndall Centre Publications
The following database includes publications by researchers exclusively from the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the University of Manchester.
6146.
Israelsson, Jennifer; Macintyre, Helen L.; Jenkins, Katie; Sanderson, Michael
Bringing real-world problems into climate models – RMetS Weather and Climate conference workshop Journal Article
In: Weather, vol. 80, pp. 70–71, 2025, ISSN: 0043-1656, (Funding information: JI and HM acknowledge support from the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health.).
@article{c40e90aa46af4ea9a77768d93e9bb37c,
title = {Bringing real-world problems into climate models – RMetS Weather and Climate conference workshop},
author = {Jennifer Israelsson and Helen L. Macintyre and Katie Jenkins and Michael Sanderson},
doi = {10.1002/wea.7666},
issn = {0043-1656},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-01},
journal = {Weather},
volume = {80},
pages = {70–71},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Most of us will experience climate change through impacts to our lives, such as increases in risk of heat-related illness, water scarcity or changes in the spread of vector-borne and infectious diseases. Our supply and quality of food might be affected by changes in crop yields and biodiversity, and economic consequences may be felt through damage to infrastructure from extreme weather. To better prepare and respond to future climate change, detailed understanding of future climate-related risks and the impacts they may pose to natural and human systems is needed. Here we present findings of a workshop in the UK to explore the challenges and opportunities of this topic.},
note = {Funding information: JI and HM acknowledge support from the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health.},
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Most of us will experience climate change through impacts to our lives, such as increases in risk of heat-related illness, water scarcity or changes in the spread of vector-borne and infectious diseases. Our supply and quality of food might be affected by changes in crop yields and biodiversity, and economic consequences may be felt through damage to infrastructure from extreme weather. To better prepare and respond to future climate change, detailed understanding of future climate-related risks and the impacts they may pose to natural and human systems is needed. Here we present findings of a workshop in the UK to explore the challenges and opportunities of this topic.
6145.
Feriga, Moustafa; Gracia, Nancy Lozano; Serneels, Pieter
The impact of climate change on work: Lessons for developing countries Journal Article
In: World Bank Research Observer, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 104–146, 2025, ISSN: 0257-3032.
@article{af3d9892d40e49ff90f0a6044c1e23f0,
title = {The impact of climate change on work: Lessons for developing countries},
author = {Moustafa Feriga and Nancy Lozano Gracia and Pieter Serneels},
doi = {10.1093/wbro/lkae002},
issn = {0257-3032},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-01},
journal = {World Bank Research Observer},
volume = {40},
number = {1},
pages = {104–146},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
abstract = {We identify five areas where climate change may impact work and draw lessons for developing countries by reviewing the evidence. Firstly, demand for labor is unevenly affected, with agriculture, heat-exposed manufacturing, and the brown energy sector experiencing downturns, while other sectors may see a rise, resulting in an uncertain overall impact. Secondly, climate change impacts labor supply through absenteeism, shirking, and altering work-time patterns, depending on the activity and sector. Thirdly, productivity may decline, especially in heat-exposed industries, primarily due to health reasons. Fourthly, heightened earnings variability likely increases vulnerability among the self-employed. Fifthly, climate change can influence labor allocation and catalyze sectoral reallocation. Higher temperatures are also linked to increased migration. But caution is needed in interpreting these findings, as studies across these topics predominantly use fixed effect estimation and concentrate on short-term impacts, neglecting adaptation. Emerging research on adaptation indicates that workplace cooling is unappealing for firms with narrow profit margins, while coping strategies of farms and households have unclear optimality due to adoption barriers. Government responses remain understudied, with six potential areas identified: green jobs, green skills, labor-oriented adaptation, flexible work regulation, labor market integration, and social protection. We conclude by outlining future research directions.},
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We identify five areas where climate change may impact work and draw lessons for developing countries by reviewing the evidence. Firstly, demand for labor is unevenly affected, with agriculture, heat-exposed manufacturing, and the brown energy sector experiencing downturns, while other sectors may see a rise, resulting in an uncertain overall impact. Secondly, climate change impacts labor supply through absenteeism, shirking, and altering work-time patterns, depending on the activity and sector. Thirdly, productivity may decline, especially in heat-exposed industries, primarily due to health reasons. Fourthly, heightened earnings variability likely increases vulnerability among the self-employed. Fifthly, climate change can influence labor allocation and catalyze sectoral reallocation. Higher temperatures are also linked to increased migration. But caution is needed in interpreting these findings, as studies across these topics predominantly use fixed effect estimation and concentrate on short-term impacts, neglecting adaptation. Emerging research on adaptation indicates that workplace cooling is unappealing for firms with narrow profit margins, while coping strategies of farms and households have unclear optimality due to adoption barriers. Government responses remain understudied, with six potential areas identified: green jobs, green skills, labor-oriented adaptation, flexible work regulation, labor market integration, and social protection. We conclude by outlining future research directions.
6144.
Cataldo, Nicolas Enrique Labra; Schmid, Alejandro Gallego; Muñoz, Edmundo; McLachlan, Carly
Environmental assessment of formal and informal waste treatment of liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors Journal Article
In: Science of the Total Environment, vol. 962, 2025, ISSN: 0048-9697.
@article{8c565e85204348b99bde1041d54f2483,
title = {Environmental assessment of formal and informal waste treatment of liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors},
author = {Nicolas Enrique Labra Cataldo and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Edmundo Muñoz and Carly McLachlan},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178273},
issn = {0048-9697},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-25},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
volume = {962},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {In Santiago, Chile, 315,000 liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors are discarded annually. Of this amount, the formal sector of refurbishment and recycling manages only 5 %, creating the conditions for the emergence of informal management systems. This study provides the first comprehensive environmental and circularity assessment of monitor treatment across multiple impact categories, identifying trade-offs associated with formal and informal operations. For this, a life cycle assessment approach is utilised at both the product-level and the municipal management systems level, addressing the processes from the collection of the monitor to its end-of-life. At the product-level, two formal and two informal routes for managing an LCD monitor were evaluated. The results reveal that formal treatment companies have the best environmental performance in all the midpoint categories of ReCiPe, achieving benefits 42,000 times greater than formal disposal for marine eutrophication, and 25 % better than informal flea market traders across all categories. The analysis of management processes attributes most environmental benefits to refurbishment, representing between 76 % and 99 % of the magnitude of the assessed environmental impacts. A sensitivity analysis shows that the environmental performance of an informal trader surpasses that of a formal treatment company when both offer the same expected lifespan for a refurbished monitor and maintain their respective refurbishment rates offered. The municipal-level analysis was carried out through the evaluation of three scenarios. The results indicate that the scenario in which the informal sector cooperates with the formal sector and exclusively dedicates to collecting monitors exhibits superior environmental performance, averaging environmental benefits that are ten times greater than the current scenario and achieving valorisation rates of 22 %, the highest among the evaluated scenarios. The results of this research contribute to the discussion on formalisation and the promotion of the circular economy in the Global South.},
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In Santiago, Chile, 315,000 liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors are discarded annually. Of this amount, the formal sector of refurbishment and recycling manages only 5 %, creating the conditions for the emergence of informal management systems. This study provides the first comprehensive environmental and circularity assessment of monitor treatment across multiple impact categories, identifying trade-offs associated with formal and informal operations. For this, a life cycle assessment approach is utilised at both the product-level and the municipal management systems level, addressing the processes from the collection of the monitor to its end-of-life. At the product-level, two formal and two informal routes for managing an LCD monitor were evaluated. The results reveal that formal treatment companies have the best environmental performance in all the midpoint categories of ReCiPe, achieving benefits 42,000 times greater than formal disposal for marine eutrophication, and 25 % better than informal flea market traders across all categories. The analysis of management processes attributes most environmental benefits to refurbishment, representing between 76 % and 99 % of the magnitude of the assessed environmental impacts. A sensitivity analysis shows that the environmental performance of an informal trader surpasses that of a formal treatment company when both offer the same expected lifespan for a refurbished monitor and maintain their respective refurbishment rates offered. The municipal-level analysis was carried out through the evaluation of three scenarios. The results indicate that the scenario in which the informal sector cooperates with the formal sector and exclusively dedicates to collecting monitors exhibits superior environmental performance, averaging environmental benefits that are ten times greater than the current scenario and achieving valorisation rates of 22 %, the highest among the evaluated scenarios. The results of this research contribute to the discussion on formalisation and the promotion of the circular economy in the Global South.
6143.
Jones, Natalia R.; Elson, Richard; Wade, Matthew J.; McIntyre-Nolan, Shannon; Woods, Andrew; Lewis, James; Hatziioanou, Diane; Vivancos, Roberto; Hunter, Paul R.; Lake, Iain R.
Localised wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels linked to COVID-19 cases: A long-term multisite study in England Journal Article
In: Science of the Total Environment, vol. 962, 2025, ISSN: 0048-9697, (Data availability statement: The UKHSA welcomes applications from organisations looking to use these data, and all applications will be rigorously reviewed using an objective, standards-based process. Potential applicants should contact DataAccess@ukhsa.gov.uk. Funding information: NRJ, RE, PH and IRL are funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency, King's College London, and the University of East Anglia.).
@article{59f0b470a9dc41d5bd785dffe573983e,
title = {Localised wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels linked to COVID-19 cases: A long-term multisite study in England},
author = {Natalia R. Jones and Richard Elson and Matthew J. Wade and Shannon McIntyre-Nolan and Andrew Woods and James Lewis and Diane Hatziioanou and Roberto Vivancos and Paul R. Hunter and Iain R. Lake},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178455},
issn = {0048-9697},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-25},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
volume = {962},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) can monitor for the presence of human health pathogens in the population. During COVID-19, WBS was widely used to determine wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration (concentrations) providing information on community COVID-19 cases (cases). However, studies examining the relationship between concentrations and cases tend to be localised or focussed on small-scale institutional settings. Few have examined this relationship in multiple settings, over long periods, with large sample numbers, nor attempted to quantify the relationship between concentrations and cases or detail how catchment characteristics affected these. This 18-month study (07/20-12/21) explored the correlation and quantitative relationship between concentrations and cases using censored regression. Our analysis used >94,000 wastewater samples collected from 452 diverse sampling sites (259 Sewage Treatment Works (STW) and 193 Sewer Network Sites (SNS)) covering ~65% of the English population. Wastewater concentrations were linked to ~6 million diagnostically confirmed COVID-19 cases. High correlation coefficients were found between concentrations and cases (STW: median r=0.66, IQR:0.57–0.74; SNS: median r=0.65, IQR:0.54–0.74). The quantitative relationship (regression coefficient) between concentrations and cases was variable between catchments. Catchment and sampling characteristics (e.g. size of population and grab vs automated sampling) had significant but small effects on correlation and regression coefficients. During the last six months of the study correlation coefficients reduced and regression coefficients became highly variable between catchments. This coincided with a shift towards younger cases, a highly vaccinated population and rapid emergence of the variant Omicron. The English WBS programme was rapidly introduced at scale during COVID-19. Laboratory methods evolved and study catchments were highly diverse in size and characteristics. Despite this diversity, findings indicate that WBS provides an effective proxy for establishing COVID-19 dynamics across a wide variety of communities. While there is potential for predicting COVID-19 cases from wastewater concentration, this may be more effective at smaller scales. },
note = {Data availability statement: The UKHSA welcomes applications from organisations looking to use these data, and all applications will be rigorously reviewed using an objective, standards-based process. Potential applicants should contact DataAccess@ukhsa.gov.uk. Funding information: NRJ, RE, PH and IRL are funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency, King's College London, and the University of East Anglia.},
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Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) can monitor for the presence of human health pathogens in the population. During COVID-19, WBS was widely used to determine wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration (concentrations) providing information on community COVID-19 cases (cases). However, studies examining the relationship between concentrations and cases tend to be localised or focussed on small-scale institutional settings. Few have examined this relationship in multiple settings, over long periods, with large sample numbers, nor attempted to quantify the relationship between concentrations and cases or detail how catchment characteristics affected these. This 18-month study (07/20-12/21) explored the correlation and quantitative relationship between concentrations and cases using censored regression. Our analysis used >94,000 wastewater samples collected from 452 diverse sampling sites (259 Sewage Treatment Works (STW) and 193 Sewer Network Sites (SNS)) covering ~65% of the English population. Wastewater concentrations were linked to ~6 million diagnostically confirmed COVID-19 cases. High correlation coefficients were found between concentrations and cases (STW: median r=0.66, IQR:0.57–0.74; SNS: median r=0.65, IQR:0.54–0.74). The quantitative relationship (regression coefficient) between concentrations and cases was variable between catchments. Catchment and sampling characteristics (e.g. size of population and grab vs automated sampling) had significant but small effects on correlation and regression coefficients. During the last six months of the study correlation coefficients reduced and regression coefficients became highly variable between catchments. This coincided with a shift towards younger cases, a highly vaccinated population and rapid emergence of the variant Omicron. The English WBS programme was rapidly introduced at scale during COVID-19. Laboratory methods evolved and study catchments were highly diverse in size and characteristics. Despite this diversity, findings indicate that WBS provides an effective proxy for establishing COVID-19 dynamics across a wide variety of communities. While there is potential for predicting COVID-19 cases from wastewater concentration, this may be more effective at smaller scales.
6142.
Bullock, Simon; Pennington, Lois; Welfle, Andrew; Tomos, Branwen Ap Dafydd; Larkin, Alice
Response to UK Government consultation on extending UKETS to Maritime Miscellaneous
2025.
@misc{153efffc667840bc8b78a7187bcdd5b8,
title = {Response to UK Government consultation on extending UKETS to Maritime},
author = {Simon Bullock and Lois Pennington and Andrew Welfle and Branwen Ap Dafydd Tomos and Alice Larkin},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-23},
abstract = {In November 2024 the UK Government issued a consultation on extending the UKETS to include maritime. This document covers responses on the design of this scheme, based on analysis from researchers at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester},
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In November 2024 the UK Government issued a consultation on extending the UKETS to include maritime. This document covers responses on the design of this scheme, based on analysis from researchers at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester
6141.
Clarke, Joanne; Haour, Anne; Morel, Hana; Forster, Johanna; Orlove, Ben; Holtorf, Cornelius; Hutcheson, Andy; Adinorkuor, Victoria Aryee; Brunnschweiler, Christa; Brooks, Nick; Wade, Sarah; Wellington, Nii-Adziri; Addo, Kwasi Appeaning; Simpson, Nicholas P.
Curating transformation can strengthen adaptation and minimize losses and damages Journal Article
In: npj Climate Action, vol. 4, no. 4, 2025, ISSN: 2731-9814.
@article{a277e673d7654abb9c79a61adea69495,
title = {Curating transformation can strengthen adaptation and minimize losses and damages},
author = {Joanne Clarke and Anne Haour and Hana Morel and Johanna Forster and Ben Orlove and Cornelius Holtorf and Andy Hutcheson and Victoria Aryee Adinorkuor and Christa Brunnschweiler and Nick Brooks and Sarah Wade and Nii-Adziri Wellington and Kwasi Appeaning Addo and Nicholas P. Simpson},
doi = {10.1038/s44168-025-00210-z},
issn = {2731-9814},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-23},
journal = {npj Climate Action},
volume = {4},
number = {4},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
abstract = {Heritage conservation recognizes that losses and damages cannot be entirely prevented, that decisions about what to keep and what to let go are fundamental to maintaining values for future generations; even when what is valued is gone. The heritage principle of curating transformation can advance climate action through pragmatic and participatory management of losses and damages, offering lessons for climate change adaptation and giving people agency over what is lost.},
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Heritage conservation recognizes that losses and damages cannot be entirely prevented, that decisions about what to keep and what to let go are fundamental to maintaining values for future generations; even when what is valued is gone. The heritage principle of curating transformation can advance climate action through pragmatic and participatory management of losses and damages, offering lessons for climate change adaptation and giving people agency over what is lost.
6140.
Redhead, John W.; Brown, Matt; Price, Jeff; Robinson, Emma; Nicholls, Robert J.; Warren, Rachel; Pywell, Richard F.
National horizon scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate Journal Article
In: Climate Resilience and Sustainability, vol. 4, no. 1, 2025, ISSN: 2692-4587.
@article{a2e6223c5a804ae593edc8aec5b5bc62,
title = {National horizon scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate},
author = {John W. Redhead and Matt Brown and Jeff Price and Emma Robinson and Robert J. Nicholls and Rachel Warren and Richard F. Pywell},
doi = {10.1002/cli2.70007},
issn = {2692-4587},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-23},
journal = {Climate Resilience and Sustainability},
volume = {4},
number = {1},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Most national assessments of climate change-related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process-based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high-level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre-industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.},
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Most national assessments of climate change-related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process-based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high-level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre-industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.
6139.
Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Vahedifard, Farshid; Sadhasivam, Nitheshnirmal; Ohenhen, Leonard; Dasho, Oluwaseyi; Tiwari, Ashutosh; Werth, Susanna; Azhar, Mohammed; Zhao, Yunxia; Nicholls, Robert J.; Aghakouchak, Amir
Aging dams, political instability, poor human decisions and climate change: Recipe for human disaster Journal Article
In: npj Natural Hazards, vol. 2, no. 1, 2025, ISSN: 2948-2100, (Data availability statement: No datasets were generated or analyzed during the current study. Acknowledgements: A grant from DoD supported this research. The building footprint is provided by Google Research (https://data.humdata.org/dataset/buildings-footprint-floods-derna-libya). European Space Agency, Sentinel-1 SAR images are obtained through Alaska Satellite Facilities at https://asf.alaska.edu/. The InSAR deformation datasets and distortion angles generated in this study are available at https://doi.org/10.7294/25374619.).
@article{69ec0695a7604cbb9e8b0a20d49e4a0f,
title = {Aging dams, political instability, poor human decisions and climate change: Recipe for human disaster},
author = {Manoochehr Shirzaei and Farshid Vahedifard and Nitheshnirmal Sadhasivam and Leonard Ohenhen and Oluwaseyi Dasho and Ashutosh Tiwari and Susanna Werth and Mohammed Azhar and Yunxia Zhao and Robert J. Nicholls and Amir Aghakouchak},
doi = {10.1038/s44304-024-00056-1},
issn = {2948-2100},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-16},
journal = {npj Natural Hazards},
volume = {2},
number = {1},
publisher = {Nature Research},
abstract = {In Derna, Libya, a record-breaking storm and subsequent dam failures on September 10, 2023, caused over 11,000 deaths. Analyzing satellite data from 2016–2023, we found 1.8 mm/yr of differential settlement in dams contributed to their failure, and flooding damaged ~8570 buildings. We argue that the interplay of aging infrastructure, political instability, climate change, and human decisions drove this disaster, stressing the need for a holistic ‘healthcare’ management approach to prevent future catastrophes.},
note = {Data availability statement: No datasets were generated or analyzed during the current study. Acknowledgements: A grant from DoD supported this research. The building footprint is provided by Google Research (https://data.humdata.org/dataset/buildings-footprint-floods-derna-libya). European Space Agency, Sentinel-1 SAR images are obtained through Alaska Satellite Facilities at https://asf.alaska.edu/. The InSAR deformation datasets and distortion angles generated in this study are available at https://doi.org/10.7294/25374619.},
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In Derna, Libya, a record-breaking storm and subsequent dam failures on September 10, 2023, caused over 11,000 deaths. Analyzing satellite data from 2016–2023, we found 1.8 mm/yr of differential settlement in dams contributed to their failure, and flooding damaged ~8570 buildings. We argue that the interplay of aging infrastructure, political instability, climate change, and human decisions drove this disaster, stressing the need for a holistic ‘healthcare’ management approach to prevent future catastrophes.
6138.
Smith, Adam J. P.; Minns, Asher; Nicholls, Robert J.; Beswick, Anna; Jenkins, Katie; Avrutin, Sandy; Robson, Craig
Reflections on delivering place-based climate risk data in support of local adaptation decisions Journal Article
In: Climate Risk Management, vol. 48, 2025, ISSN: 2212-0963, (Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request. Funding information: The research described here is part of the NERC funded project: OpenCLIM (Open CLimate Impacts modelling framework) (NE/T013931/1). Ongoing knowledge exchange work is aligned with the NERC funded project: Maximising UK Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Hub (grant reference APP23040). AJPS was supported by Impact funding from the University of East Anglia (UEA).).
@article{55c54292efaf48ffb0a8a58ed539fad6,
title = {Reflections on delivering place-based climate risk data in support of local adaptation decisions},
author = {Adam J. P. Smith and Asher Minns and Robert J. Nicholls and Anna Beswick and Katie Jenkins and Sandy Avrutin and Craig Robson},
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2025.100701},
issn = {2212-0963},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
volume = {48},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Strengthening the adaptive capacity of the UK, via national plans and local-scale interventions, requires easy access to climate risk information and adaptation scenarios. Stakeholder engagement can ensure the right balance between top-down prescriptive modelling, and bottom-up, solution-focussed and lived experience approaches. National-scale, spatially-explicit, integrated climate risk frameworks can help inform the needs of localised climate risk assessments, but there are barriers to local actors accessing the information.},
note = {Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request. Funding information: The research described here is part of the NERC funded project: OpenCLIM (Open CLimate Impacts modelling framework) (NE/T013931/1). Ongoing knowledge exchange work is aligned with the NERC funded project: Maximising UK Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Hub (grant reference APP23040). AJPS was supported by Impact funding from the University of East Anglia (UEA).},
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Strengthening the adaptive capacity of the UK, via national plans and local-scale interventions, requires easy access to climate risk information and adaptation scenarios. Stakeholder engagement can ensure the right balance between top-down prescriptive modelling, and bottom-up, solution-focussed and lived experience approaches. National-scale, spatially-explicit, integrated climate risk frameworks can help inform the needs of localised climate risk assessments, but there are barriers to local actors accessing the information.
6137.
Simms, Ian; Charlett, André; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Blomquist, Paula B.; Lake, Iain R.; Zaidi, Asad; Shadwell, Stephanie; Sedgwick, James; Paranthaman, Karnith; Vivancos, Roberto
In: Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 153, 2025, ISSN: 0950-2688, (Data availability statement: The anonymized datasets used in our study are confidential records supplied to UK Health Security Agency under Regulation 3 of The Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2020 and under Sect. 251 of the NHS Act 2006. In accordance with the UKHSAs duty of confidentiality and associated legal restrictions, the datasets analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.).
@article{29fa6e0879494f7d8a12edd90756a675,
title = {Adapting the Flexible Farrington Algorithm for daily situational awareness and alert system to support public health decision-making during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England},
author = {Ian Simms and André Charlett and Felipe J. Colón-González and Paula B. Blomquist and Iain R. Lake and Asad Zaidi and Stephanie Shadwell and James Sedgwick and Karnith Paranthaman and Roberto Vivancos},
doi = {10.1017/S0950268825000160},
issn = {0950-2688},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
journal = {Epidemiology and Infection},
volume = {153},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
abstract = {The Flexible Farrington Algorithm (FFA) is widely used to detect infectious disease outbreaks at national/regional levels on a weekly basis. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 alongside the speed at which diagnostic and public health interventions were introduced made the FFA of limited use. We describe how the methodology was adapted to provide a daily alert system to support local health protection teams (HPTs) working in the 316 English lower-tier local authorities. To minimize the impact of a rapidly changing epidemiological situation, the FFA was altered to use 8 weeks of data. The adapted algorithm was based on reported positive counts using total tests as an offset. Performance was assessed using the root mean square error (RMSE) over a period. Graphical reports were sent to local teams enabling targeted public health action. From 1 July 2020, results were routinely reported. Adaptions accommodated the impact on reporting because of changes in diagnostic strategy (introduction of lateral flow devices). RMSE values were relatively small compared to observed counts, increased during periods of increased reporting, and were relatively higher in the northern and western areas of the country. The exceedance reports were well received. This presentation should be considered as a successful proof-of-concept.},
note = {Data availability statement: The anonymized datasets used in our study are confidential records supplied to UK Health Security Agency under Regulation 3 of The Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2020 and under Sect. 251 of the NHS Act 2006. In accordance with the UKHSAs duty of confidentiality and associated legal restrictions, the datasets analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.},
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tppubtype = {article}
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The Flexible Farrington Algorithm (FFA) is widely used to detect infectious disease outbreaks at national/regional levels on a weekly basis. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 alongside the speed at which diagnostic and public health interventions were introduced made the FFA of limited use. We describe how the methodology was adapted to provide a daily alert system to support local health protection teams (HPTs) working in the 316 English lower-tier local authorities. To minimize the impact of a rapidly changing epidemiological situation, the FFA was altered to use 8 weeks of data. The adapted algorithm was based on reported positive counts using total tests as an offset. Performance was assessed using the root mean square error (RMSE) over a period. Graphical reports were sent to local teams enabling targeted public health action. From 1 July 2020, results were routinely reported. Adaptions accommodated the impact on reporting because of changes in diagnostic strategy (introduction of lateral flow devices). RMSE values were relatively small compared to observed counts, increased during periods of increased reporting, and were relatively higher in the northern and western areas of the country. The exceedance reports were well received. This presentation should be considered as a successful proof-of-concept.
6136.
Lea-Langton, Amanda; Bodel, William; Ma, Lin; Taylor, Kevin; Jones, Christopher; Larkin, Alice; Foley, Aoife; Kez, Dlzar Al; Ahmed, Faraedoon; Spallina, Vincenzo; Sharmina, Maria
On Hydrogen Book
policy@manchester, United Kingdom, 2025.
@book{36b430041fe642c2baf0ccf01bcb5168,
title = {On Hydrogen},
author = {Amanda Lea-Langton and William Bodel and Lin Ma and Kevin Taylor and Christopher Jones and Alice Larkin and Aoife Foley and Dlzar Al Kez and Faraedoon Ahmed and Vincenzo Spallina and Maria Sharmina},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
publisher = {policy@manchester},
address = {United Kingdom},
abstract = {Policy@Manchester’s publication On Hydrogen provides evidence-led policy recommendations from energy experts at The University of Manchester on future hydrogen policy.The UK currently relies heavily on fossil fuels for transport, industry and power production. But this must change if we are to meet our net zero ambitions. Industry and policy have extolled the potential of hydrogen’s capability to decarbonise the most challenging sectors of our economy. So, what can be done to reach this potential in practice? On Hydrogen features expert articles on the production and storage of hydrogen, the decarbonisation of industry and transport, standards for low carbon hydrogen, and the future role of hydrogen interconnectors. Our research-led recommendations provide policymakers with evidence and ideas that can advance the future of hydrogen in the UK energy sector.},
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Policy@Manchester’s publication On Hydrogen provides evidence-led policy recommendations from energy experts at The University of Manchester on future hydrogen policy.The UK currently relies heavily on fossil fuels for transport, industry and power production. But this must change if we are to meet our net zero ambitions. Industry and policy have extolled the potential of hydrogen’s capability to decarbonise the most challenging sectors of our economy. So, what can be done to reach this potential in practice? On Hydrogen features expert articles on the production and storage of hydrogen, the decarbonisation of industry and transport, standards for low carbon hydrogen, and the future role of hydrogen interconnectors. Our research-led recommendations provide policymakers with evidence and ideas that can advance the future of hydrogen in the UK energy sector.
6135.
Fullonton, Abhilasha; Lea-Langton, Amanda; Madugu, Fatima; Larkin, Alice
Green ammonia adoption in shipping: Opportunities and challenges across the fuel supply chain Journal Article
In: Marine Policy, vol. 171, 2025, ISSN: 0308-597X.
@article{86ffa79345b3424798a8a930de2fc259,
title = {Green ammonia adoption in shipping: Opportunities and challenges across the fuel supply chain},
author = {Abhilasha Fullonton and Amanda Lea-Langton and Fatima Madugu and Alice Larkin},
doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2024.106444},
issn = {0308-597X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
journal = {Marine Policy},
volume = {171},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {The IMO’s 2023 revised targets increase pressure on shipping and trading organisations to urgently cut energy consumption and transition away from fossil fuels. Although there are several alternative fuel options for shipping, ammonia is a prominent contender. Green ammonia is produced from renewable hydrogen with no direct CO2 emissions when combusted, making it an important option to interrogate. This research uses a mixed methods approach, including analysing shipping stakeholders’ perspectives, to consider the full range of factors relating to its deployment and use. Challenges to its adoption include low fleet renewal as a result of uncertainties around being first movers, managing NOx and N2O emissions if used in a combustion engine and lack of economic incentives. Nevertheless, green ammonia's storage advantages over hydrogen, established experience of ammonia handling for the fertiliser industry and its direct emission free application in fuel cells, underpin interest in its development. The study emphasizes though that the on-ground realities of transitioning away from fossil fuels require significant developments across the entire fuel supply chain. This extends beyond considerations around ammonia’s technological viability and encompass changes needed to onboard and portside infrastructure, incentives to accelerate retrofit and fleet renewal, and recognition of risks posed by first-movers in the sector. Furthermore, with short timeliness associated with Paris targets, and anticipated rising costs of new fuel infrastructure, there is an imperative to implement mitigation policy that focuses on urgently reducing reliance on liquid fuels, while alternative fuel deployment is established at scale.},
keywords = {},
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The IMO’s 2023 revised targets increase pressure on shipping and trading organisations to urgently cut energy consumption and transition away from fossil fuels. Although there are several alternative fuel options for shipping, ammonia is a prominent contender. Green ammonia is produced from renewable hydrogen with no direct CO2 emissions when combusted, making it an important option to interrogate. This research uses a mixed methods approach, including analysing shipping stakeholders’ perspectives, to consider the full range of factors relating to its deployment and use. Challenges to its adoption include low fleet renewal as a result of uncertainties around being first movers, managing NOx and N2O emissions if used in a combustion engine and lack of economic incentives. Nevertheless, green ammonia's storage advantages over hydrogen, established experience of ammonia handling for the fertiliser industry and its direct emission free application in fuel cells, underpin interest in its development. The study emphasizes though that the on-ground realities of transitioning away from fossil fuels require significant developments across the entire fuel supply chain. This extends beyond considerations around ammonia’s technological viability and encompass changes needed to onboard and portside infrastructure, incentives to accelerate retrofit and fleet renewal, and recognition of risks posed by first-movers in the sector. Furthermore, with short timeliness associated with Paris targets, and anticipated rising costs of new fuel infrastructure, there is an imperative to implement mitigation policy that focuses on urgently reducing reliance on liquid fuels, while alternative fuel deployment is established at scale.
6134.
Bullock, Simon; Larkin, Alice
The IMO’s revised climate change strategy: and its compatibility with the Paris Climate Agreement Miscellaneous
2024.
@misc{f7ac45eb6ca0496a92508b6c715fe4a0,
title = {The IMO’s revised climate change strategy: and its compatibility with the Paris Climate Agreement},
author = {Simon Bullock and Alice Larkin},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-12-16},
abstract = {A one-side summary of a peer-reviewed journal article, assessing whether the IMO's new climate strategy is compatible with the Paris Climate Agreement},
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tppubtype = {misc}
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A one-side summary of a peer-reviewed journal article, assessing whether the IMO's new climate strategy is compatible with the Paris Climate Agreement
6133.
Pereira, Vinicius Juliani
In: Social & Cultural Geography, 2024, ISSN: 1464-9365.
@article{e802d15ad5fb42b29eac083fbd876114,
title = {Threshold: how smart homes change us inside and out: by Heather Suzanne Woods. Tuscaloosa, Alabama, The University of Alabama Press, 2024, 226 pp., $34.95 (paperback), ISBN 978-0-8173-6143-3; $110.00 (hardback), ISBN 978-0-8173-2194-9; $34.95 (eBook), ISBN 978-0-8173-9497-4},
author = {Vinicius Juliani Pereira},
doi = {10.1080/14649365.2024.2443323},
issn = {1464-9365},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-12-16},
journal = {Social & Cultural Geography},
publisher = {Routledge},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
6132.
Adelekan, Adeyemi; Sharmina, Maria
Co-creating or Confounding? Hybrid Legitimacy Evaluation of Circular Business Models in the U.K. Plastics Sector Journal Article
In: Organization & Environment, no. p.10860266241300455, 2024, ISSN: 1086-0266.
@article{202d5cc517fd495ea62792958907bdde,
title = {Co-creating or Confounding? Hybrid Legitimacy Evaluation of Circular Business Models in the U.K. Plastics Sector},
author = {Adeyemi Adelekan and Maria Sharmina},
issn = {1086-0266},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-12-11},
journal = {Organization & Environment},
number = {p.10860266241300455},
publisher = {SAGE Publications Inc.},
abstract = {Despite the importance of business models for enabling a circular economy at a systems level, little is known about how value chain actors assess the circular business models that they are co-creating and how this assessment shapes their behaviour. Framing circular business models as a subject of legitimacy, this study explores how value chain actors respond when the value proposition of a circular business model seems proper, but the value creation and capture are debated. Based on interviews and workshops with 16 U.K. plastics sector organizations, this study shows how value chain actors respond to this hybrid legitimacy judgement by assuming a position of dynamic vigilance. This position affects the advising, contributing, lobbying, and trialling work that actors do to shape emerging circular economy institutions. We argue that the actors’ dynamic vigilance and advocacy work might be impeding a circular economy and corresponding business models.},
keywords = {},
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Despite the importance of business models for enabling a circular economy at a systems level, little is known about how value chain actors assess the circular business models that they are co-creating and how this assessment shapes their behaviour. Framing circular business models as a subject of legitimacy, this study explores how value chain actors respond when the value proposition of a circular business model seems proper, but the value creation and capture are debated. Based on interviews and workshops with 16 U.K. plastics sector organizations, this study shows how value chain actors respond to this hybrid legitimacy judgement by assuming a position of dynamic vigilance. This position affects the advising, contributing, lobbying, and trialling work that actors do to shape emerging circular economy institutions. We argue that the actors’ dynamic vigilance and advocacy work might be impeding a circular economy and corresponding business models.
6131.
Bocquillon, Pierre; Doyle, Suzanne; James, Toby S.; Mason, Ra; Park, Soul; Rosini, Matilde
The Effects of Wars: Lessons from the War in Ukraine Book
Routledge, United States, 2024.
@book{9b73ca8e5ab14c9f874dc0f0980d5ee3,
title = {The Effects of Wars: Lessons from the War in Ukraine},
author = {Pierre Bocquillon and Suzanne Doyle and Toby S. James and Ra Mason and Soul Park and Matilde Rosini},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-12-09},
publisher = {Routledge},
address = {United States},
abstract = {War has been an ever-present feature of human existence. The analysis of wars has tended to focus on either their causes or the military and strategic consequences of a conflict. This book argues that war can have a much wider impact across layers of society that go beyond international boundaries. It presents a heuristic multi-disciplinary framework for analysing the ripple and backwash effects across five connected analytical layers around the world: material; human capabilities; economic; values belief and attitudes; policy and governance; and power. Through this framework, the book introduces a set of empirically rich and theoretically informed studies which examine the first consequences of the war in Ukraine following the invasion of Russia in February 2022. This multi-disciplinary approach shows that the effects of the war were much deeper and sustained. This volume will be of interest to students and scholars of international humanitarian law, security studies, peace and conflict studies, and European history. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of Policy Studies.},
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War has been an ever-present feature of human existence. The analysis of wars has tended to focus on either their causes or the military and strategic consequences of a conflict. This book argues that war can have a much wider impact across layers of society that go beyond international boundaries. It presents a heuristic multi-disciplinary framework for analysing the ripple and backwash effects across five connected analytical layers around the world: material; human capabilities; economic; values belief and attitudes; policy and governance; and power. Through this framework, the book introduces a set of empirically rich and theoretically informed studies which examine the first consequences of the war in Ukraine following the invasion of Russia in February 2022. This multi-disciplinary approach shows that the effects of the war were much deeper and sustained. This volume will be of interest to students and scholars of international humanitarian law, security studies, peace and conflict studies, and European history. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of Policy Studies.
6130.
Schroeder, Heike; Beyers, Felix; Schäpke, Niko Alexander; Mar, Kathleen A.; Wamsler, Christine; Stasiak, Dorota; Lueschen, Tim; Fraude, Carolin; Bruhn, Thomas; Lawrence, Mark
The role of trust in the international climate negotiations Journal Article
In: Environmental Policy and Governance, 2024, ISSN: 1756-932X, (Data availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the cojavascript:void(0);rresponding author upon reasonable request. Funding information: The work of the Research Institute for Sustainability–Helmholtz Centre Potsdam is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) and the State of Brandenburg Ministry for Science, Research and Culture (MWFK). The work of Christine Wamsler was supported by two projects funded by the Swedish Research Council Formas: (i) Mind4Change (grant number 2019-00390; full title: Agents of Change: Mind, Cognitive Bias and Decision-Making in a Context of Social and Climate Change), and (ii) TransVision (grant number 2019-01969; full title: Transition Visions: Coupling Society, Well-being and Energy Systems for Transitioning to a Fossil-free Society).).
@article{22b059d284b048f6a322b0d7a7cf9c4d,
title = {The role of trust in the international climate negotiations},
author = {Heike Schroeder and Felix Beyers and Niko Alexander Schäpke and Kathleen A. Mar and Christine Wamsler and Dorota Stasiak and Tim Lueschen and Carolin Fraude and Thomas Bruhn and Mark Lawrence},
doi = {10.1002/eet.2144},
issn = {1756-932X},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-12-05},
journal = {Environmental Policy and Governance},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {In this paper, we examine the role of trust in the international climate negotiations. We (1) identify forms of trust inferred from institutional designs, (2) analyse effects of institutional design on social and political trust and (3) describe the relationship between social and political trust in international climate change negotiations. We do this by combining document analysis, literature review and interviews. We find that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement imply different forms of trust and thereby produce different levels of trust. Social trust is generally medium to high, political trust rather low. Our analysis illustrates tensions and contradictions between human agency and intention, on the one hand, and political agency and process, on the other. These tensions and contradictions are such that, although delegates at the international climate conferences do at least partly trust each other, they meet in an institutional context that is marked by lack of political trust. Moving forward, we discuss whether this lack of trust is well-founded or not given the current institutional and organisational structures of the UNFCCC and its subsequent agreements and what it is highlighting in terms of specific flaws or omissions in the UNFCCC's design.},
note = {Data availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the cojavascript:void(0);rresponding author upon reasonable request. Funding information: The work of the Research Institute for Sustainability–Helmholtz Centre Potsdam is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) and the State of Brandenburg Ministry for Science, Research and Culture (MWFK). The work of Christine Wamsler was supported by two projects funded by the Swedish Research Council Formas: (i) Mind4Change (grant number 2019-00390; full title: Agents of Change: Mind, Cognitive Bias and Decision-Making in a Context of Social and Climate Change), and (ii) TransVision (grant number 2019-01969; full title: Transition Visions: Coupling Society, Well-being and Energy Systems for Transitioning to a Fossil-free Society).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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In this paper, we examine the role of trust in the international climate negotiations. We (1) identify forms of trust inferred from institutional designs, (2) analyse effects of institutional design on social and political trust and (3) describe the relationship between social and political trust in international climate change negotiations. We do this by combining document analysis, literature review and interviews. We find that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement imply different forms of trust and thereby produce different levels of trust. Social trust is generally medium to high, political trust rather low. Our analysis illustrates tensions and contradictions between human agency and intention, on the one hand, and political agency and process, on the other. These tensions and contradictions are such that, although delegates at the international climate conferences do at least partly trust each other, they meet in an institutional context that is marked by lack of political trust. Moving forward, we discuss whether this lack of trust is well-founded or not given the current institutional and organisational structures of the UNFCCC and its subsequent agreements and what it is highlighting in terms of specific flaws or omissions in the UNFCCC's design.
6129.
Edwards, Gareth A. S.; Wiseman, John; Cahill, Amanda (Ed.)
Regional Energy Transitions in Australia: From Impossible to Possible Book
Routledge, United States, 2024, ISBN: 9781032854861.
@book{f71f0a96313e4535bb15a66327e26731,
title = {Regional Energy Transitions in Australia: From Impossible to Possible},
editor = {Gareth A. S. Edwards and John Wiseman and Amanda Cahill},
isbn = {9781032854861},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-12-03},
publisher = {Routledge},
address = {United States},
abstract = {This book provides an accessible and critical appraisal of Australia’s regional energy transition initiatives.The book begins by situating Australian energy transition in the context of Australian and international debates about climate change and energy transition. It then explores how energy transition planning was made possible in Australia’s regional energy heartlands even while public transition planning was impossible. The authors consider five case studies of key early transition initiatives in the Latrobe Valley (Victoria), Hunter Valley (NSW), Central Queensland (Queensland), Port Augusta (South Australia) and Collie (Western Australia). They explore how transition came onto the agenda and outline the key actors, decision points and actions. The authors critically assess the successes and failures of each initiative, drawing out key learnings for other regions. The book concludes by evaluating the key cross-cutting themes emerging from the five case studies and draws out the lessons they teach about how to achieve a just transition.This concise book will be of great interest to students and scholars of energy transitions, climate action, social justice, economic renewal and regional transition challenges and strategies, both in Australia and overseas.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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This book provides an accessible and critical appraisal of Australia’s regional energy transition initiatives.The book begins by situating Australian energy transition in the context of Australian and international debates about climate change and energy transition. It then explores how energy transition planning was made possible in Australia’s regional energy heartlands even while public transition planning was impossible. The authors consider five case studies of key early transition initiatives in the Latrobe Valley (Victoria), Hunter Valley (NSW), Central Queensland (Queensland), Port Augusta (South Australia) and Collie (Western Australia). They explore how transition came onto the agenda and outline the key actors, decision points and actions. The authors critically assess the successes and failures of each initiative, drawing out key learnings for other regions. The book concludes by evaluating the key cross-cutting themes emerging from the five case studies and draws out the lessons they teach about how to achieve a just transition.This concise book will be of great interest to students and scholars of energy transitions, climate action, social justice, economic renewal and regional transition challenges and strategies, both in Australia and overseas.
6128.
Becker, M.; Seeger, K.; Paszkowski, A.; Marcos, M.; Papa, F.; Almar, R.; Bates, P.; France-Lanord, C.; Hossain, Md S.; Khan, Md J. U.; Karegar, M. A.; Karpytchev, M.; Long, N.; Minderhoud, P. S. J.; Neal, J.; Nicholls, R. J.; Syvitski, J.
Coastal flooding in Asian megadeltas: Recent advances, persistent challenges, and call for actions amidst local and global changes Journal Article
In: Reviews of Geophysics, vol. 62, no. 4, 2024, ISSN: 8755-1209, (Data Availability Statement: No new data was created or used for this research. Funding information: This research was supported by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) in Bern, through ISSI International Team project #548: “Past, Present and Future of the Asian Mega-Deltas: The Role of Space Observations.” This work also benefits from the support of the French CNES TOSCA program through the DeltAsia project. M.B., N.L., J.K., M.K., and F.P. were supported by the French Research Agency (ANR) under the DELTA project (ANR-17-CE03-0001). P.S.J.M. is supported by the Dutch Science Foundation (NWO) under the Drowning Deltas project (Veni-TTW-20231). K.S. is supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) under the Rising Sea And Sinking Land project (project number 411257639). M.A.K was supported by DFG under SFB 1502/1-2022 (project number 450058266).).
@article{9f15834916c64fe6ab5b7aecfa192130,
title = {Coastal flooding in Asian megadeltas: Recent advances, persistent challenges, and call for actions amidst local and global changes},
author = {M. Becker and K. Seeger and A. Paszkowski and M. Marcos and F. Papa and R. Almar and P. Bates and C. France-Lanord and Md S. Hossain and Md J. U. Khan and M. A. Karegar and M. Karpytchev and N. Long and P. S. J. Minderhoud and J. Neal and R. J. Nicholls and J. Syvitski},
doi = {10.1029/2024RG000846},
issn = {8755-1209},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-12-01},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
volume = {62},
number = {4},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
abstract = {Asian megadeltas, specifically the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Irrawaddy, Chao Phraya, Mekong, and Red River deltas host half of the world's deltaic population and are vital for Asian countries' ecosystems and food production. These deltas are extremely vulnerable to global change. Accelerating relative sea-level rise, combined with rapid socio-economic development intensifies these vulnerabilities and calls for a comprehensive understanding of current and future coastal flood dynamics. Here we provide a state-of-the-art on the current knowledge and recent advances in quantifying and understanding the drivers of coastal flood-related hazards in these deltas. We discuss the environmental and physical drivers, including climate influence, hydrology, oceanography, geomorphology, and geophysical processes and how they interact from short to long-term changes, including during extreme events. We also jointly examine how human disturbances, with catchment interventions, land use changes and resource exploitations, contribute to coastal flooding in the deltas. Through a systems perspective, we characterize the current state of the deltaic systems and provide essential insights for shaping their sustainable future trajectories regarding the multifaceted challenges of coastal flooding.},
note = {Data Availability Statement: No new data was created or used for this research. Funding information: This research was supported by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) in Bern, through ISSI International Team project #548: “Past, Present and Future of the Asian Mega-Deltas: The Role of Space Observations.” This work also benefits from the support of the French CNES TOSCA program through the DeltAsia project. M.B., N.L., J.K., M.K., and F.P. were supported by the French Research Agency (ANR) under the DELTA project (ANR-17-CE03-0001). P.S.J.M. is supported by the Dutch Science Foundation (NWO) under the Drowning Deltas project (Veni-TTW-20231). K.S. is supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) under the Rising Sea And Sinking Land project (project number 411257639). M.A.K was supported by DFG under SFB 1502/1-2022 (project number 450058266).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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}
Asian megadeltas, specifically the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Irrawaddy, Chao Phraya, Mekong, and Red River deltas host half of the world's deltaic population and are vital for Asian countries' ecosystems and food production. These deltas are extremely vulnerable to global change. Accelerating relative sea-level rise, combined with rapid socio-economic development intensifies these vulnerabilities and calls for a comprehensive understanding of current and future coastal flood dynamics. Here we provide a state-of-the-art on the current knowledge and recent advances in quantifying and understanding the drivers of coastal flood-related hazards in these deltas. We discuss the environmental and physical drivers, including climate influence, hydrology, oceanography, geomorphology, and geophysical processes and how they interact from short to long-term changes, including during extreme events. We also jointly examine how human disturbances, with catchment interventions, land use changes and resource exploitations, contribute to coastal flooding in the deltas. Through a systems perspective, we characterize the current state of the deltaic systems and provide essential insights for shaping their sustainable future trajectories regarding the multifaceted challenges of coastal flooding.
6127.
Stjern, Camilla W.; Joshi, Manoj; Wilcox, Laura J.; Gollop, Amee; Samset, Bjørn H.
Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) in Asia using the intermediate-resolution global climate model FORTE2 Journal Article
In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, vol. 16, no. 12, 2024, ISSN: 1942-2466, (Data availability statement: The present analyses is based on model simulations using the FORTE2 (version v2.0) reduced-complexity climate model. The model is freely available for download (Blaker et al., 2020). Aerosol perturbation simulations use AOD from the CAMSRA, as detailed in the Methods section. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Reanalysis (CAMSRA) was downloaded from the CAMS Atmosphere Data Store (ADS) (CAMS-EAC4, 2019, 2020; Inness et al., 2019). Figure 5 compares FORTE2 sea level pressure and winds to that from ERA5 reanalysis (Hersbach et al., 2020). All FORTE2 model results are available for download at the repository NIRD Research Data Archive (Stjern, 2024). Python code for analysis of the FORTE2 results as well as for plotting figures in the manuscript will be available for download at the same repository. Funding information: All coauthors were supported by the Research Council of Norway [Grant 324182 (CA3THY)].).
@article{f0f4d9bb1b2243088d8f08b1e7635ae8,
title = {Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) in Asia using the intermediate-resolution global climate model FORTE2},
author = {Camilla W. Stjern and Manoj Joshi and Laura J. Wilcox and Amee Gollop and Bjørn H. Samset},
doi = {10.1029/2023MS004171},
issn = {1942-2466},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-12-01},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
volume = {16},
number = {12},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
abstract = {Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are rapidly changing, in amounts, composition and geographical distribution. In East and South Asia in particular, strong aerosol trends combined with high population densities imply high potential vulnerability to climate change. Improved knowledge of how near-term climate and weather influences these changes is urgently needed, to allow for better-informed adaptation strategies. To understand and decompose the local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol emission changes, we perform a set of Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) using the reduced-complexity climate model FORTE 2.0 (FORTE2). Absorbing and scattering aerosols are perturbed separately, over East Asia and South Asia, to assess their distinct influences on climate. In this paper, we first present an updated version of FORTE2, which includes treatment of aerosol-cloud interactions. We then document and validate the local responses over a range of parameters, showing for instance that removing emissions of absorbing aerosols over both East Asia and South Asia is projected to cause a local drying, alongside a range of more widespread effects. We find that SyRAP-FORTE2 is able to reproduce the responses to Asian aerosol changes documented in the literature, and that it can help us decompose regional climate impacts of aerosols from the two regions. Finally, we show how SyRAP-FORTE2 has regionally linear responses in temperature and precipitation and can be used as input to emulators and tunable simple climate models, and as a ready-made tool for projecting the local and remote effects of near-term changes in Asian aerosol emissions.},
note = {Data availability statement: The present analyses is based on model simulations using the FORTE2 (version v2.0) reduced-complexity climate model. The model is freely available for download (Blaker et al., 2020). Aerosol perturbation simulations use AOD from the CAMSRA, as detailed in the Methods section. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Reanalysis (CAMSRA) was downloaded from the CAMS Atmosphere Data Store (ADS) (CAMS-EAC4, 2019, 2020; Inness et al., 2019). Figure 5 compares FORTE2 sea level pressure and winds to that from ERA5 reanalysis (Hersbach et al., 2020). All FORTE2 model results are available for download at the repository NIRD Research Data Archive (Stjern, 2024). Python code for analysis of the FORTE2 results as well as for plotting figures in the manuscript will be available for download at the same repository. Funding information: All coauthors were supported by the Research Council of Norway [Grant 324182 (CA3THY)].},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are rapidly changing, in amounts, composition and geographical distribution. In East and South Asia in particular, strong aerosol trends combined with high population densities imply high potential vulnerability to climate change. Improved knowledge of how near-term climate and weather influences these changes is urgently needed, to allow for better-informed adaptation strategies. To understand and decompose the local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol emission changes, we perform a set of Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) using the reduced-complexity climate model FORTE 2.0 (FORTE2). Absorbing and scattering aerosols are perturbed separately, over East Asia and South Asia, to assess their distinct influences on climate. In this paper, we first present an updated version of FORTE2, which includes treatment of aerosol-cloud interactions. We then document and validate the local responses over a range of parameters, showing for instance that removing emissions of absorbing aerosols over both East Asia and South Asia is projected to cause a local drying, alongside a range of more widespread effects. We find that SyRAP-FORTE2 is able to reproduce the responses to Asian aerosol changes documented in the literature, and that it can help us decompose regional climate impacts of aerosols from the two regions. Finally, we show how SyRAP-FORTE2 has regionally linear responses in temperature and precipitation and can be used as input to emulators and tunable simple climate models, and as a ready-made tool for projecting the local and remote effects of near-term changes in Asian aerosol emissions.
