Tyndall Centre Publications

@article{bb6d57a27ce24888b6652d6680fbbd6b,

title = {Subsidence more than doubles sea-level rise today along densely populated coasts},

author = {Julius Oelsmann and Robert J. Nicholls and Daniel Lincke and Marta Marcos and Manoochehr Shirzaei and Laura Sánchez and Leonard Ohenhen and Denise Dettmering and Jochen Hinkel and Benjamin P. Horton and Florian Seitz},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-72293-z},

issn = {2041-1723},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-05-16},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {17},

number = {1},

publisher = {Nature Research},

abstract = {Despite its strong influence on relative sea-level (RSL) rise, there is still low confidence in estimates of vertical land motion (VLM) and its contribution to RSL change. To address this problem, we synergize diverse VLM data, which now cover almost 65% of the coastal population, and are key to resolve small scale subsidence, including East, South, and Southeast Asian cities and populated deltaic regions, largely not covered by earlier geodetic measurements. We find that the average modern (1995-2020) global RSL rise experienced by coastal populations (6 mm/year) is about twice as large as the climate-driven absolute sea-level rise. This reflects a strong tendency for higher rates of subsidence in densely populated areas, with 71% of the global coastal population living in subsiding regions. Paired with community efforts to extend consistent observations, these data are essential to ensure reliable estimates of present and future RSL rise to support risk and adaptation assessment.},

note = {Data Availability: The global VLM reconstruction from Oelsmann et al., 2024 [OE24] is available at https://zenodo.org/records/8308347. GNSS VLM data [Blewitt et al., 2018] are available at https://geodesy.unr.edu/velocities/midas.IGS14.txt. InSAR VLM estimates for Europe can be downloaded from the EGMS data explorer https://egms.land.copernicus.eu/. InSAR VLM data for the US [8] is provided for different regions: The Pacific coast (available through the Virginia Tech Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.7294/17711000), the Atlantic coast (https://doi.org/10.7294/19350959) and the Gulf coast (https://doi.org/10.7294/22731326). The InSAR city subsidence data from Shirzaei et al., 2024 is available at: https://data.lib.vt.edu/articles/dataset/InSAR-Based_Coastal_Land_Subsidence/25864435/1. Delta InSAR data from Nienhuis et al., 2017 is available at https://osf.io/m83z4/files/osfstorage. The delta-subsidence data from Ohenhen et al., 2026 is available at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15015923). Subsidence data for Chinese cities [Ao et al., 2024] can be obtained from https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl4366#supplementary-materials. The GIA estimates contained in the VLM data are available at https://vesl.jpl.nasa.gov/solid-earth/gia/. The ASLC data were obtained from https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/product/SEALEVEL_GLO_PHY_L4_MY_008_047/description. The information of the coastal segments of the DIVA model (location, population, length) and the VLM estimates of NI21b can be obtained from the source files provided at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-00993-z#Sec16. Figures are made with data from Natural Earth (free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com). The delta subsidence and the total global estimates of this study is available at (zenodo-link) (currently available from this temporary repository:) https://tulane.box.com/s/m12eo06roaojub48rh1bpitxt8hqntb2 Code Availability: The code used to process data and generate all figures is available at zenodo (doi link will be uploaded with final editorial checks) linked to the following GitHub repository (link will be included)},

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@article{4ee15f193d994ddfa079bd74ef575375,

title = {Global Carbon Budget 2025},

author = {Pierre Friedlingstein and Michael O'Sullivan and Matthew W. Jones and Robbie M. Andrew and Dorothee C. E. Bakker and Judith Hauck and Peter Landschutzer and Corinne Le Quéré and Hongmei Li and Ingrid T. Luijkx and Glen P. Peters and Wouter Peters and Julia Pongratz and Clemens Schwingshackl and Stephen Sitch and Josep G. Canadell and Philippe Ciais and Kjetil Aas and Simone R. Alin and Peter Anthoni and Leticia Barbero and Nicholas R. Bates and Nicolas Bellouin and Alice Benoit-Cattin and Carla F. Berghoff and Raffaelle Bernardello and Laurent Bopp and Ida B. M. Brasika and Matthew A. Chamberlain and Naveen Chandra and Frédéric Chevallier and Louise P. Chini and Nathan O. Collier and Thomas H. Colligan and Margot Cronin and Laique Djeutchouang and Xinyu Dou and Matt P. Enright and Kazutaka Enyo and Michael Erb and Wiley Evans and Richard A. Feely and Liang Feng and Daniel J. Ford and Adrianna Foster and Filippa Fransner and Thomas Gasser and Marion Gehlen and Thanos Gkritzalis and Jefferson Goncalves De Souza and Giacomo Grassi and Luke Gregor and Nicolas Gruber and Bertrand Guenet and Özgür Gürses and Kirsty Harrington and Ian Harris and Jens Heinke and George C. Hurtt and Yosuke Iida and Tatiana Ilyina and Akihiko Ito and Andrew R. Jacobson and Atul K. Jain and Tereza Jarníková and Annika Jersild and Fei Jiang and Steve D. Jones and Etsushi Kato and Ralph F. Keeling and Kees Klein Goldewijk and Jürgen Knauer and Yawen Kong and Jan Ivar Korsbakken and Charles Koven and Taro Kunimitsu and Xin Lan and Junjie Liu and Zhiqiang Liu and Zhu Liu and Claire Lo Monaco and Lei Ma and Gregg Marland and Patrick C. Mcguire and Galen A. McKinley and Joe Melton and Natalie Monacci and Erwan Monier and Eric J. Morgan and David R. Munro and Jens D. Müller and Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka and Lorna R. Nayagam and Yosuke Niwa and Tobias Nutzel and Are Olsen and Abdirahman M. Omar and Naiqing Pan and Sudhanshu Pandey and Denis Pierrot and Zhangcai Qin and Pierre A. G. Regnier and Gregor Rehder and Laure Resplandy and Alizée Roobaert and Thais M. Rosan and Christian Rödenbeck and Jörg Schwinger and Ingunn Skjelvan and T. Luke Smallman and Victoria Spada and Mohana G. Sreeush and Qing Sun and Adrienne J. Sutton and Colm Sweeney and Didier Swingedouw and Roland Séférian and Shintaro Takao and Hiroaki Tatebe and Hanqin Tian and Xiangjun Tian and Bronte Tilbrook and Hiroyuki Tsujino and Francesco Tubiello and Erik Van Ooijen and Guido Werf and Sebastiaan J. Velde and Anthony Walker and Rik Wanninkhof and Xiaojuan Yang and Wenping Yuan and Xu Yue and Jiye Zeng},

doi = {10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026},

issn = {1866-3508},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-05-13},

journal = {Earth System Science Data},

volume = {18},

number = {5},

pages = {3211–3288},

publisher = {Copernicus Publications},

abstract = {Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E LUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (G ATM) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the ocean (S OCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO 2-products. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the land (S LAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. This year, we introduced corrections on the ELUC, SOCEAN and SLAND estimates. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ. For the year 2024, EFOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr -1), ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr -1, for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO 2 yr -1). Also, for 2024, GATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr -1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr -1), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr -1 and SLAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr -1, leaving a large negative BIM (-1.7 GtC yr -1), suggesting that the total sink or GATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2024 of +1.0 % (0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).},

note = {Data sets Data Supporting the Global Carbon Budget 2025 P. Friedlingstein et al. https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025},

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@article{346ace5517934244a90abfc8c302e0ee,

title = {Wealth Redistribution Policies to Mitigate the Impact of Development Assistance Defunding: a Retrospective Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis up to 2030},

author = {Gonzalo Barreix Sibils and Rodrigo Volmir Rezende Anderle and Andrea Ferreira da Silva and Lucas de Oliveira Ferreira de Sales and Daiaina Pena and Caterina Monti and Claudia Garcia Vaz and Lucio Esposito and Edward Anderson and Xavier Jara and Hugo Santa and Gabriela Dos Santos Jesus and Daniella Medeiros Cavalcanti and Ariel Nhacolo and Ivalda Macicame and Quique Bassat and Davide Rasella},

issn = {0140-6736},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-05-12},

journal = {The Lancet},

publisher = {Elsevier},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{6b45a55050f441cf9497a3413e4a4967,

title = {Bias-corrected UKCP18 Convection-Permitting Model Projections for England},

author = {Qianyu Zha and Yi He and Timothy J. Osborn and Nicole Forstenhäusler},

doi = {10.5194/hess-30-2395-2026},

issn = {1607-7938},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-04-27},

journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)},

volume = {30},

number = {8},

pages = {2395–2415},

publisher = {Copernicus Publications},

abstract = {The UKCP18 Convection-permitting model (CPM) provides the latest high-resolution climate projections for the UK. Compared with regional climate model projections, the CPM projections are more capable of simulating small-scale atmospheric convection particularly during extreme weather events such as intense rainfall and localised storms. However, systematic biases still exist in these projections. To improve the reliability of these projections, bias correction is crucial. In this study, we apply and evaluate a quantile mapping (QM) bias correction method for UKCP18-CPM hourly precipitation (with diurnal correction) and daily temperature over England. We quantify how closely the bias corrected simulations align with observations relative to the raw simulations. The raw UKCP18-CPM simulations exhibit wet precipitation biases, particularly in northern England, with annual mean biases ranging from 4.6 % to 18.3 %, and cool temperature biases, with annual mean biases from −0.87 to 0.02 °C. Bias correction substantially improved agreement with observational datasets, increasing R2 values for the 95th percentile of hourly precipitation from 0.80–0.88 to 0.98 and achieving near-perfect alignment (R2 = 1) for temperature extremes. Future projections for the 2070s indicate notable increases in annual maximum precipitation by 25.1 %–39.1 % and mean daily temperature by 3.1 to 4.5 °C, highlighting the potential for more intense climate-related events. Overall, the applied bias-correction method brings UKCP18-CPM simulations into closer agreement with observations for both mean behaviour and extremes, providing a more reliable basis for high-resolution impact modelling and assessments that require hourly precipitation forcing.},

note = {Data availability: The dataset is available at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16213003; Zha et al., 2025).},

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@article{ab73fc0988c140d49d8f8ffc9708560e,

title = {Unlocking the potential of integrated multi-trophic aquaculture in coastal Kenya: Assessment of system status, stakeholder awareness, and pathways for sustainable mariculture development},

author = {Esther Magondu and Mavindu Muthoka and Douglas Okemwa and Markose Zwedie and Lucy Njogu and Jonathan Munguti and Joshua Aboah and David Mirera and Rodrigue Yossa},

doi = {10.1111/jwas.70092},

issn = {0893-8849},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-04-14},

journal = {Journal of the World Aquaculture Society},

volume = {57},

number = {2},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) is an emerging system that offers a model for sustainable aquaculture intensification, yet its global uptake is limited while its utilization in sub-Saharan Africa remains unknown. This study assessed the status of mariculture systems, stakeholder awareness, and pathways for IMTA adoption along Kenya's coastline to inform sustainable mariculture development. A mixed-methods approach was applied across five counties—Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Tana River—using structured surveys (n = 300), focus group discussions (n = 15), and key informant interviews (n = 19). Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and logistic regression, while qualitative insights were thematically coded and triangulated. Results show that aquaculture is predominantly small-scale (95.3%) and pond-based (68.3%). There were significant regional differences in aquaculture systems and species composition (χ 2 = 113.311, p < 0.001; Cramer's V = 0.658). Though IMTA adoption was low (2.3%), willingness to adopt was high across the counties. Ordinal logistic regression confirmed county as a significant predictor of willingness (χ 2 = 47.996, p < 0.001), with the strongest effects in Kwale (β = 2.023, p < 0.001) and Lamu (β = 1.363, p < 0.001). Multinomial regression identified lack of knowledge, capacity, and financial resources as major barriers (χ 2 = 67.038, p < 0.001). Qualitative findings emphasized grassroots innovation potential and strong community interest, contingent on training and infrastructure support. This study establishes a baseline for guiding IMTA policy, demonstrating strong latent readiness for inclusive, climate-smart mariculture within Kenya's Blue Economy strategy.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{327dcaefd35c409890924991725adb36,

title = {A geospatial database of coastal characteristics for erosion assessment of Europe's coastal floodplains},

author = {Susan Hanson and Robert Nicholls and Floris Calkoen and Gonéri Cozannet and Arjen P. Luijendijk},

doi = {10.5194/nhess-26-1685-2026},

issn = {1561-8633},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-04-14},

journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {26},

number = {4},

pages = {1685–1703},

publisher = {Copernicus Publications},

abstract = {Coastal erosion and flooding are linked, with erosion potentially exacerbating flood extents and risk, but analysis of the combined hazards is limited. This paper describes the CoasTER geographic database specifically designed for the first time to integrate existing information on erosion and other relevant characteristics for Europe's coastal floodplains. The CoasTER database updates and builds on earlier erosion research and data sources. At the European scale, it combines fundamental erosion-relevant information (sediment type, land use, floodplains, geomorphology, historical shoreline movement trend) on a standard shoreline to highlight the potential magnitude of erosion-flood interactions by defining where mobile sediments and coastal floodplains are co-located. It also identifies where morphodynamic response to sea-level rise is constrained due to structures/infrastructure. Results indicate almost 80 % (25 000 km) of the total shoreline length associated with European coastal floodplains (approx. 31 000 km) are composed of mobile sediments, with coastal wetlands being the most prevalent geomorphological type. While accretion is the dominant historical trend for these shorelines, approximately 27 % are currently classed as eroding at over 0.5 m yr−1 over the last 40 years. The majority of floodplain shorelines are associated with either developed or agricultural areas and constraining human structures that occur along almost 8000 km of shoreline. The CoasTER database demonstrates that episodic and/or long-term erosion and coastal flooding is a Europe-wide issue that deserves the attention of local to European decision-makers in order to define a coherent management strategy.},

note = {Data availability: The CoasTER database is available as a download in cloud-optimized format and described in a STAC collection produced using CoastPy (see Calkoen et al., 2025). Project/platform website: https://coclicoservices.eu/ (last access: 25 March 2026). Python guidance tutorials: https://github.com/openearth/coclico-workbench/tree/main/tutorials (last access: 25 March 2026). STAC data location: https://minio.dive.edito.eu/project-coclico/coclico-stac-edito/catalog.json (last access: 25 March 2026). Floodplain data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19233592 (Lincke, 2026).},

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@article{0a41d0f1d29c40aab5862394fc963015,

title = {Unveiling Gender Inequities in Small-Scale Fisheries and Aquaculture in East Africa: a Harvard Analytical Framework Approach},

author = {Kevin Okoth Ouko and Cherine Lando Yugi and Modock Odiwuor Oketch and Lucy Njogu and Jimmy Brian Mboya and Robert John Ogola and Danstone Aboge and Mavindu Muthoka and Dick Chune Midamba},

doi = {10.1002/aff2.70210},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-04-01},

journal = {Aquaculture, Fish and Fisheries},

volume = {6},

number = {2},

abstract = {Small-scale fisheries and aquaculture constitute critical pillars of food security, livelihoods, and rural economies across East Africa, yet persistent gendered inequalities continue to constrain both equity and sectoral performance. This study provides a synthesis of empirical evidence from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania to examine how structural, institutional, and socio-cultural processes reproduce gender disparities across fisheries and aquaculture value chains. Drawing on a narrative review of peer reviewed and grey literature published between 2015 and 2025, the analysis applies the Harvard Analytical Framework (HAF) to interrogate four interrelated dimensions: Division of labour, access to and control over productive resources, influencing institutional and normative factors, and gender integration within project cycles. The findings indicate that gender inequalities are most pronounced in asset ownership, decision making authority, and benefit distribution rather than participation alone. Women remain concentrated in labour intensive and lower value post-harvest activities, while men dominate harvesting, aquaculture production, licensing systems, and leadership positions within co management institutions. Across the three countries, men retain control over the majority of productive assets, including boats, fishing gear, land, and aquaculture infrastructure, while women's access to credit, extension services, and modern technologies remains constrained. These disparities are reinforced by inheritance regimes, gender norms, and male dominated governance structures that shape access to resources and control over income. Development interventions frequently expand women's participation without addressing underlying structural constraints, thereby contributing to the reproduction of institutional inequalities. By linking structural analysis to policy relevant pathways, the study argues that inclusive blue economy development requires tenure reform, gender responsive financing mechanisms, institutional restructuring, and sustained normative change. The review positions gender equity as a governance and productivity imperative and provides an evidence based foundation for advancing resilient and inclusive fisheries and aquaculture systems in East Africa.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this published article.},

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@article{e6368a31b5fb400ebc6e0a8a4346337a,

title = {Cultural fire regime in the Comiteca Tojolabal Plateau, Chiapas, Mexico},

author = {Laura Ponce Calderon and Fernando Limon-Aguirre and Iokine Rodriguez},

doi = {10.1186/s42408-026-00461-z},

issn = {1933-9747},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-03-23},

journal = {Fire Ecology},

volume = {22},

number = {1},

publisher = {Springer},

abstract = {Background: Climate change, public policies, and deterritorialization have altered cultural regimes that have historically guided the use of fire as part of productive and community practices. In the region known as the Comiteca Tojolabal Plateau, in Chiapas, Mexico, these regimes refer to the way in which fire is used in small farming communities and indigenous territories for productive and cultural activities, aimed at reproducing collective life according to community values and interests. This study presents a comprehensive approach to the cultural regime of fire, based on ethnographic research that included semi-structured interviews, life stories, focus groups, walking transects, social mapping exercises, and participatory observation. Based on cultural knowledge as an analytical category, local ways of understanding the cultural regimes of fire are analyzed. Results: The findings show an adaptive cultural management of the territory based on the knowledge derived from the historical experience of territoriality itself, providing guidelines and tools for the most effective management of fire in the territory. Conclusions: The fire regime must be understood as a component of a pyrobiocultural framework, where fire articulates relationships between nature, culture, and territory over time, integrating its symbolic and identity dimensions. The conceptual analysis of cultural fire regimes integrates the sociocultural cognitive dimension and the historical processes that have shaped them. Generalized policies of colonization and exclusion of fire have eradicated or weakened these ways of territorializing spaces, with effects during times of climate crisis.},

note = {Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2026.},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{694a9bfb63634bb8af353a34a724a314,

title = {Cooler and drier climate in the South–Central Pacific during the last glacial period},

author = {Mark Peaple and Daniel Skinner and Gordon N. Inglis and Manoj Joshi and Peter Langdon and Adrian Matthews and Timothy Osborn and Rob Scaife and Jean-Yves Meyer and David Sear},

doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03356-8},

issn = {2662-4435},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-03-20},

journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},

volume = {7},

number = {1},

publisher = {Nature Research},

abstract = {Understanding how precipitation responds to temperature change is crucial for anticipating future climate variability. The geological past provides a unique window into rainfall responses to large-scale climate shifts, yet regional responses in the South–Central Pacific remain poorly constrained due to the lack of continuous long-term palaeoclimate records extending beyond the Holocene. To address this gap, we reconstruct temperature and precipitation using biomarker proxies from a 50,000-year peat core from Nuku Hiva, French Polynesia. During the Last Glacial period, increased hydrogen isotopic values of plant waxes indicate drier conditions. Pollen data show increased abundances of drought-adapted herbaceous taxa and reduced cloud forest species. Temperature-sensitive bacterial lipids indicate substantially cooler glacial conditions relative to the Holocene. Notably, reconstructed temperature and precipitation changes are strongly correlated, consistent with data assimilation studies. These results highlight the sensitivity of the tropical Pacific to background climate state and provide important constraints on regional climate dynamics.},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{48815379a19446c2a76049e12b8820d2,

title = {Identification of Sources of Methane in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam},

author = {Ceres A. Woolley Maisch and James L. France and Rebecca E. Fisher and David Lowry and Grant Forster and Thi Hien To and Itziar Irakulis-Loitxate and Nicholas Garrard and Doan Thien Chi Nguyen and Thi Thanh Nhon Nguyen and Hoang Minh Tran and Vo Tu Uyen Nguyen and Gia Luat Nguyen and Ha Phuc Duy Cao and Graham Mills and David Oram and Thomas Röckmann and Carina Veen and Euan G. Nisbet},

doi = {10.1021/acsestair.5c00034},

issn = {2837-1402},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-03-13},

journal = {American Chemical Society Environmental Science and Technology Air},

volume = {3},

number = {3},

pages = {649–661},

publisher = {American Chemical Society},

abstract = {Stationary, mobile, and satellite measurements of methane are evaluated to characterize and distinguish the major sources of methane emissions in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The isotopic composition of the methane and ethane:methane ratios resulted in the successful differentiation between source categories, and the results indicate that the main emission sources in the city are from waste and traffic. The most significant source of CH4 was the Da Phuoc landfill site to the south of the city, which was responsible for elevated CH4 mole fractions over large parts of the city; more than 1 ppm above background up to 15 km away. With this large extent and elevation, we show that during the study period, the landfill emissions are detectable from space using the PRISMA satellite. Our measurements in an understudied region offer an empirical basis to guide methane management and mitigation strategies implemented by governments to achieve the goals of the Global Methane Pledge.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{bf4672957f9a4ea1b6e525e728c98fb1,

title = {Is academia addressing relevant questions to support a circularity transition in Latin America and the Caribbean?},

author = {Glenn A. Aguilar-Hernandez and Ana Belén Guerrero and Leonardo Vásquez-Ibarra and Ricardo Rebolledo-Leiva and Alejandro Gallego-Schmid},

doi = {10.1007/s44498-026-00038-8},

issn = {1088-1980},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-03-11},

journal = {Journal of Industrial Ecology},

publisher = {Springer Nature},

abstract = {Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is advancing toward a Circular Economy (CE), supported by expanding policy initiatives and a growing body of academic research. Over the past decade, CE academic studies in the region have examined developments at multiple sectors, scales and circular strategies, thus, contributing to CE research in the region. Yet, it remains uncertain whether academic research addresses the critical questions most relevant for non-academic stakeholders—including policymakers, practitioners, and businesses—to support the CE transition in LAC. To assess this alignment, we compared 51 priority questions identified by 19 CE experts in LAC countries with the research objectives of 335 scientific publications on CE in the region. The analysis reveals the extent to which stakeholder priorities are reflected in academic literature and highlights persistent gaps where further research is needed. Our findings stress the importance of fostering more collaborative, transdisciplinary, and stakeholder-oriented research to accelerate a just and effective CE transition in LAC.},

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}

@article{0ba1f9f2c6bb46aea9f6943bbb029605,

title = {How narratives shape disaster recovery: the ‘disaster representation space’ in Tamil Nadu, India},

author = {Chandni Singh and Mark G. L. Tebboth and Jasmitha Arvind and Roger Few},

doi = {10.1016/j.wdp.2026.100766},

issn = {2468-0532},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-03-01},

journal = {World Development Perspectives},

volume = {41},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {How can long-term disaster recovery be made more effective and inclusive? This question is central to research and practice on disaster management, with emerging calls for understanding how certain recovery priorities and processes gain prominence, often with very different outcomes for people impacted by disasters. Using empirical evidence from Tamil Nadu in South India, we explore the representation of disasters in three areas: how the disaster-triggering hazard itself is represented, how disaster-affected populations are represented and are able to represent themselves, and how recovery from disasters is represented. To do this we draw on three disasters that have occurred over the past quarter of a century: the Indian Ocean Tsunami, the South Indian Floods, and Cyclone Gaja. Using multiple lines of data, including multi-stakeholder interviews, and participatory group discussions, we demonstrate the crucial role that representation plays in influencing recovery processes and outcomes. We synthesise the empirical findings through the ‘disaster representation space’ where representations from disaster frontlines are juxtaposed with top-down narratives and those brokered by intermediaries. We argue that conferring greater representational power and agency on populations that are typically marginalised can contribute to more positive, inclusive and long-term recovery outcomes.},

note = {Publisher Copyright: © 2026 Elsevier Ltd},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{84ef2940744f43cba7187233e662635d,

title = {Gender, race and their interplay with economic status: Intersectionality and asymmetric jeopardies in Brazilian education},

author = {Sunil Kumar and Lucio Esposito and Adrián Villaseñor and Sandra Macedo},

doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107232},

issn = {0305-750X},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-03-01},

journal = {World Development},

volume = {199},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {A large body of research has illustrated how inequalities in educational achievements globally are rooted in a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. However, the sources of educational disadvantages are too often considered in isolation, without addressing how they interplay with one another. Building upon the intersectionality and multiple jeopardy frameworks, in this paper we employ a sequential mixed-methods approach to analyse the role played by economic status, gender and race in shaping education attainment in Brazilian high-stakes secondary education exams. Our specific focus is on how economic status, conceptualised as comprising an absolute and a relative facet, interplays with gender and race. Our quantitative analysis reveals that the two components of economic status interplay symmetrically with gender but asymmetrically with race. Gender attainment gaps shrink with higher absolute and relative status. Race attainment gaps also shrink with higher absolute status, but they expand with higher relative status. We use the insights obtained from the literature as well as from our qualitative interviews to situate and explain these findings. Our work improves the understanding of the multifaceted disadvantage experienced by students from underprivileged households in Brazil, highlighting how economic inequality and discrimination hinder educational attainment and jeopardise social mobility.},

note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{89e3a8418b2d4a318cc32dc680bb6a4b,

title = {Towards just and transformative social–ecological restoration},

author = {Adrian Martin and Neil Dawson and Iokiñe Rodríguez and Rajanya Bose and Isabel Cotton},

doi = {10.1038/s41893-025-01702-w},

issn = {2398-9629},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-03-01},

journal = {Nature Sustainability},

volume = {9},

number = {3},

pages = {353–359},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {In the face of the climate and biodiversity crisis, global targets for the restoration of degraded lands have become ever more ambitious and urgent. Here we explain the case for placing justice at the heart of restoration practice. Although this is increasingly accepted, there is an unfortunate tendency to address justice in superficial ways, through tokenistic forms of participation and benefit sharing. We address this problem by classifying the different levels at which justice can be addressed and elaborating the level that restoration practice should aspire to if it is to be just and transformative.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{246190b874974d709ef8a291091c223f,

title = {The role of equatorial waves in triggering precipitation extremes in the Maritime Continent},

author = {Beata Latos and Samantha Ferrett and Thierry Lefort and Adrian J. Matthews and Sandro W. Lubis and Natasha V. Senior and Philippe Peyrillé and Hanh Nguyen and Matthew C. Wheeler and Jeong-Yik Diong and Dariusz B. Baranowski and Maria K. Flatau and Piotr J. Flatau and Ida Pramuwardani and Fadhlil R. Muhammad and Donaldi S. Permana and Muhamad R. Ferdiansyah and Agie Wandala and Kiki and Idhan Abubakar and Tito Praditya and Eddy Hermawan and Jacek Piskozub},

doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-25-0073.1},

issn = {0027-0644},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-03-01},

journal = {Monthly Weather Review},

volume = {154},

number = {3},

pages = {333–368},

publisher = {American Meteorological Society},

abstract = {This review offers a comprehensive analysis of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and their pivotal role in driving precipitation extremes across the Maritime Continent. It examines the current understanding of CCEWs, evaluates the performance of numerical models and forecasting techniques in predicting these phenomena, and pinpoints critical areas for improvement. The discussion centers on three key types of equatorial waves: equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. By connecting scientific insights with practical forecasting applications, the review sheds light on the challenges of predicting these waves while identifying opportunities to advance both fundamental knowledge and forecasting accuracy. Designed as an educational resource, it targets operational forecasting centers, meteorologists, and researchers, aiming to enhance the prediction of extreme weather events in the region.},

note = {Availability Statement: GPM-IMERG precipitation data were supplied by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration through their website at https://gpm.nasa.gov/. ERA5 and ERA-Interim data were accessed from the Copernicus climate data store (CDS) at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/ (doi:10.24381/cds/bd0915c6). MetUM forecast data used in this study may be supplied upon request from the corresponding author. Data availability of other NWP models used in this study are outlined in Table. 1 and can be obtained from the S2S and TIGGE databases. CCKW trajectories are available at https://github.com/adrianjmatthews/CCKW database. The analysis was conducted using custom scripts developed in Python, which are available upon request from the corresponding author.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ce464cd6d34949f6af3e4be913b49915,

title = {Advancing Our Understanding of CE Loop Strategies: A Synthesizing Framework for Durable Consumer Products},

author = {Sahra Svensson-Hoglund and Jennifer D. Russell and Jessika Luth Richter and Paul Dewick and Leonidas Milios and Martin Calisto Friant and Anne P. M. Velenturf and Marianna Lena Kambanou and Rich Grousset and Sandra Goldmark and Alejandro Gallego-Schmid and Joshua Newton and Laura Novich and Carl Dalhammar},

doi = {10.1007/s43615-026-00748-y},

issn = {2730-5988},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-02-28},

journal = {Circular Economy and Sustainability},

volume = {6},

number = {2},

publisher = {Springer Nature},

abstract = {The Circular Economy (CE) concept is widely promoted as a pathway to sustainability, yet its practical realization can appear to be challenging and unclear due to divergent definitions, interpretations and understanding about the implications and goals of a realized CE. Addressing this gap, this study develops the Circular Economy Loop Strategies (CELS) Framework, a synthesizing foundational model that defines and organizes five overarching strategies—simplifying, narrowing, slowing, intensifying, and closing—within a material flow perspective for durable consumer products, such as electronics and furniture. The framework delineates how varying CE goals (e.g., recycling vs. sufficiency) can influence material flow outcomes and, for each strategy, outlines overlaps and trade-offs while linking them to CELS characteristics: trajectory, magnitude, composition, and rate of flow. The CELS Framework was constructed through a critical review of CE literature and refined via a two-round Delphi study with 17 international experts from academia, industry, policy, and non-profit sectors. Results indicate strong consensus (89% agreement) on the framework’s validity and usefulness for mapping CE strategies and evaluating their implications across different CE versions—from recycling-focused approaches to sufficiency-driven models. This research contributes to CE theory by providing a clearer conceptual foundation and vocabulary, as well as provides a foundational tool for policymakers and practitioners to support strategic planning and alignment in CE transitions. The framework highlights the need for integrated strategies to achieve environmental sustainability and serves as a starting point for future research on operationalization, prioritization, and social dimensions of circularity.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{9134e2d6b3b14423a213474fa571af19,

title = {Global daily CO2 emissions from 1970 to 2024},

author = {Tao Li and Lixing Wang and Zihan Qiu and Philippe Ciais and Steven J. Davis and Zhu Deng and Yufei Zhao and Glen P. Peters and Piyu Ke and Matthew W. Jones and Robbie M. Andrew and Ye Hao and Taochun Sun and Xiaoting Huang and Robert B. Jackson and Pierre Friedlingstein and Chenxi Lu and Duo Cui and Zhu Liu},

doi = {10.1038/s41597-026-06621-9},

issn = {2052-4463},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-02-24},

journal = {Scientific Data},

volume = {13},

number = {1},

publisher = {Nature Research},

abstract = {As extreme temperature events become increasingly frequent, there is a growing need for daily CO 2 emissions data to quantify their impacts. However, such data are available only from 2019 onward. To address this gap, we compiled over two million near-real-time observations of electricity generation, traffic activity, natural gas consumption or heating degree days (HDD), and industrial output since 2019, and used these high-frequency data to construct a daily CO 2 emissions dataset for 2019–2024. We then applied machine-learning models and degree-day methods to disaggregate non-residential and residential monthly CO 2 emissions for 1970–2018 to a daily basis. The historical dataset was then merged with the 2019–2024 dataset to produce a global daily CO 2 emissions dataset spanning 1970 to 2024 for 14 countries and regions, covering four sectors: power, industry, residential, and transport (including ground transport and aviation). The resulting long-term dataset will enable robust analyses of extreme-temperature impacts on emissions and enhance the accuracy of chemical transport model inversions of carbon fluxes.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{cdfcf69624db4565aac261bf35d7a223,

title = {Microalgae as futuristic feeds for securing chicken production while promoting human health},

author = {Jules R. Siedenburg and Everaldo Attard and Arjan Verschoor},

doi = {10.3389/fanim.2025.1710262},

issn = {2673-6225},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-02-23},

journal = {Frontiers in Animal Science},

volume = {6},

publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},

abstract = {Livestock keepers face growing challenges, notably rising input prices and escalating biotic and abiotic stresses linked to environmental issues like climate change. These stresses pose problems for farmers but could also adversely affect wider society, including food security and the environment. Agricultural innovations are needed to help address such threats, and nature-based solutions are a promising locus of innovative farm inputs. The present paper reviews the available evidence on one species of microalgae – Arthrospira platensis – and its potential significance for chicken production given these challenges. It finds that this feed possesses multifaceted efficacy, namely boosting the production of meat and eggs, enhancing the resilience of production to biotic and abiotic stresses, and improving product quality. These effects could bolster the economic viability of chicken production. The observed quality effects also create scope for producing biofortified chicken products, with potentially major implications for public health. The paper summarises the evidence on these themes in non-technical language using intuitive metrics. It also frames its findings in terms of key target users of this innovative feed, namely farmers, farm advisors and policy makers. It concludes by discussing the potential significance of this agricultural innovation and highlighting key research and policy priorities.},

note = {Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2026 Siedenburg, Attard and Verschoor.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}