Tyndall Centre Publications
The following database includes publications by researchers exclusively from the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the University of Manchester.
6326.
Brown, David; Martin, Adrian; Fisher, Janet A.; Gingembre, Mathilde
Towards a transformative approach to just rural transitions: Landscape restoration in the Scottish highlands Journal Article
In: Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space, vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 1839–1865, 2025, ISSN: 2514-8486, (Data availability statement: The data that has been used is confidential. Funding information: This work was supported by the JPI Climate- SOLSTICE programme (SOLSTICE Consortium Agreement, 2020-12-1) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council Landscape Decisions Fellowship (grant no. NE/V007904/1).).
@article{014e86f8686e4505a1cc2e412c5362f5,
title = {Towards a transformative approach to just rural transitions: Landscape restoration in the Scottish highlands},
author = {David Brown and Adrian Martin and Janet A. Fisher and Mathilde Gingembre},
doi = {10.1177/25148486251367163},
issn = {2514-8486},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space},
volume = {8},
number = {6},
pages = {1839–1865},
publisher = {Sage Publications},
abstract = {Driven by international policy agendas to restore landscapes, large-scale land-use changes are expected in rural areas, with significant implications for landscape characteristics, land-uses, livelihoods, economies and cultures. It is increasingly recognised that the long-term success of restoration initiatives requires integrating social considerations, yet uncertainties remain over the pathways for achieving this. This paper explores the basis for- and barriers to- a just and sustainable vision of the landscape through a case study of the Affric-Kintail area in the Scottish Highlands, a context in which environmental policy agendas and natural capital investments are driving rural landscape change. Drawing from multidimensional, empirical environmental justice, this paper investigates the diverse justice claims voiced by rural communities. The research highlights a spectrum of justice concerns tied to diverse, contested meanings and practices of just transitions, where we distinguish between socio-technical and transformative approaches to just transition. As a result, our case study points to fundamental structural and socio-economic barriers to realising just transformation in rural Scotland, rooted in vast inequalities in power, wealth and landownership, and a depth of justice concerns around rural landscape transformations which have so far been left aside by restoration agendas and just transition policy discourses.},
note = {Data availability statement: The data that has been used is confidential. Funding information: This work was supported by the JPI Climate- SOLSTICE programme (SOLSTICE Consortium Agreement, 2020-12-1) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council Landscape Decisions Fellowship (grant no. NE/V007904/1).},
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pubstate = {published},
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Driven by international policy agendas to restore landscapes, large-scale land-use changes are expected in rural areas, with significant implications for landscape characteristics, land-uses, livelihoods, economies and cultures. It is increasingly recognised that the long-term success of restoration initiatives requires integrating social considerations, yet uncertainties remain over the pathways for achieving this. This paper explores the basis for- and barriers to- a just and sustainable vision of the landscape through a case study of the Affric-Kintail area in the Scottish Highlands, a context in which environmental policy agendas and natural capital investments are driving rural landscape change. Drawing from multidimensional, empirical environmental justice, this paper investigates the diverse justice claims voiced by rural communities. The research highlights a spectrum of justice concerns tied to diverse, contested meanings and practices of just transitions, where we distinguish between socio-technical and transformative approaches to just transition. As a result, our case study points to fundamental structural and socio-economic barriers to realising just transformation in rural Scotland, rooted in vast inequalities in power, wealth and landownership, and a depth of justice concerns around rural landscape transformations which have so far been left aside by restoration agendas and just transition policy discourses.
6325.
Mahony, Martin; Barclay, Jenni; Pascal, Karen; Pyle, David M.; Scarlett, Jazmin
Science in a crisis: Assembling volcanic knowledge in twentieth century Montserrat Journal Article
In: Journal of Historical Geography, vol. 90, pp. 1–12, 2025, ISSN: 0305-7488, (Data availability: The authors do not have permission to share data. Funding information: This research was supported by the UK Arts & Humanities Research Council (AHRC) and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), as part of the project ‘Curating Crises: The Past as a Key to Improving the Stewardship of Hazard Knowledge for the Future’ (AH/W00898X/1). Additional support was provided from the NERC Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET; to DMP) and the GCRF and Newton Fund Consolidation Accounts (GNCA; Oxford and UEA).).
@article{712c49bf480a44c38a5098df367f0e18,
title = {Science in a crisis: Assembling volcanic knowledge in twentieth century Montserrat},
author = {Martin Mahony and Jenni Barclay and Karen Pascal and David M. Pyle and Jazmin Scarlett},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhg.2025.08.002},
issn = {0305-7488},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Journal of Historical Geography},
volume = {90},
pages = {1–12},
publisher = {Academic Press Inc.},
abstract = {In the 1930s Montserrat, part of the British Leeward Islands colony, experienced a prolonged period of seismic unrest which many on the island interpreted as presaging a volcanic eruption. During the crisis several international scientists visited Montserrat and advised the local and imperial authorities on the likelihood of an eruption, and the island became a key node in an increasingly global volcanology. The process of assembling reliable knowledge about the volcanic system and its likely future behaviour was nonetheless heavily structured by colonial hierarchies and contestations over the reliability of different observers and the utility of long term monitoring. When the volcano eventually began erupting in 1995 it put paid to lingering governmental doubts over its very existence. We propose that work on the geographies of science has so far paid insufficient attention to the spatialities of crisis science, and that doing so can shed new light on both the history and persistence of colonial practices in the environmental sciences and in disaster management. Adopting longer perspectives on the politics of crisis science can yield new insights into the geographies and political geologies of a crisis-ridden present.},
note = {Data availability: The authors do not have permission to share data. Funding information: This research was supported by the UK Arts & Humanities Research Council (AHRC) and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), as part of the project ‘Curating Crises: The Past as a Key to Improving the Stewardship of Hazard Knowledge for the Future’ (AH/W00898X/1). Additional support was provided from the NERC Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET; to DMP) and the GCRF and Newton Fund Consolidation Accounts (GNCA; Oxford and UEA).},
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In the 1930s Montserrat, part of the British Leeward Islands colony, experienced a prolonged period of seismic unrest which many on the island interpreted as presaging a volcanic eruption. During the crisis several international scientists visited Montserrat and advised the local and imperial authorities on the likelihood of an eruption, and the island became a key node in an increasingly global volcanology. The process of assembling reliable knowledge about the volcanic system and its likely future behaviour was nonetheless heavily structured by colonial hierarchies and contestations over the reliability of different observers and the utility of long term monitoring. When the volcano eventually began erupting in 1995 it put paid to lingering governmental doubts over its very existence. We propose that work on the geographies of science has so far paid insufficient attention to the spatialities of crisis science, and that doing so can shed new light on both the history and persistence of colonial practices in the environmental sciences and in disaster management. Adopting longer perspectives on the politics of crisis science can yield new insights into the geographies and political geologies of a crisis-ridden present.
6324.
Cahillane, Ashley; Forster, Johanna; Kołbuk, Dorota; Brannigan, John
Offshore cultural ecosystem services: evidence from open-sea research Journal Article
In: Ecosystem Services, vol. 76, 2025, ISSN: 2212-0416, (Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request.).
@article{23b11ead14804c16a6a10cd28ab47754,
title = {Offshore cultural ecosystem services: evidence from open-sea research},
author = {Ashley Cahillane and Johanna Forster and Dorota Kołbuk and John Brannigan},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecoser.2025.101783},
issn = {2212-0416},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Ecosystem Services},
volume = {76},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Offshore marine environments tend to be characterised as uninhabited resource pools, and therefore, compared to terrestrial and coastal environments, have received little attention as sources of cultural ecosystem benefits. Ecosystem valuations of offshore marine areas have largely been based on the monetary values of provisioning and regulating services, and have not taken full account of intangible and non-monetary values. Effective management of marine areas depends upon a comprehensive assessment of the wide range of ecosystem benefits to society, including such cultural benefits as sense of place, cultural identity, aesthetic appreciation and inspiration, connection with nature, and education and research. This paper describes a novel approach to collecting data on cultural ecosystem benefits in offshore areas by stationing a cultural ecosystem services researcher on board a research vessel to carry out observational and ethnographic research, and to conduct semi-structured interviews with researchers and crew. The approach draws from humanities and social science methodologies for investigating embodied experiences, emotional responses, and psychological attachments. Results show a wide range of cultural ecosystem benefits associated with offshore, and a high degree of recognition of the sea as a powerful yet vulnerable environment demanding care and respect. Greater understanding of the cultural values of key users of offshore marine ecosystems will help to inform more effective marine management decisions and practices, and there is considerable scope for in situ participatory and observational research as described in this paper to help to achieve a more holistic assessment of marine cultural ecosystem benefits.},
note = {Data availability statement: Data will be made available on request.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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Offshore marine environments tend to be characterised as uninhabited resource pools, and therefore, compared to terrestrial and coastal environments, have received little attention as sources of cultural ecosystem benefits. Ecosystem valuations of offshore marine areas have largely been based on the monetary values of provisioning and regulating services, and have not taken full account of intangible and non-monetary values. Effective management of marine areas depends upon a comprehensive assessment of the wide range of ecosystem benefits to society, including such cultural benefits as sense of place, cultural identity, aesthetic appreciation and inspiration, connection with nature, and education and research. This paper describes a novel approach to collecting data on cultural ecosystem benefits in offshore areas by stationing a cultural ecosystem services researcher on board a research vessel to carry out observational and ethnographic research, and to conduct semi-structured interviews with researchers and crew. The approach draws from humanities and social science methodologies for investigating embodied experiences, emotional responses, and psychological attachments. Results show a wide range of cultural ecosystem benefits associated with offshore, and a high degree of recognition of the sea as a powerful yet vulnerable environment demanding care and respect. Greater understanding of the cultural values of key users of offshore marine ecosystems will help to inform more effective marine management decisions and practices, and there is considerable scope for in situ participatory and observational research as described in this paper to help to achieve a more holistic assessment of marine cultural ecosystem benefits.
6323.
Sayers, P. B.; Birkinshaw, S. J.; Carr, S.; He, Y.; Lewis, L.; Smith, B.; Redhead, J.; Pywell, R.; Ford, A.; Virgo, J.; Nicholls, R. J.; Price, J.; Warren, R.; Forstenhäusler, N.; Smith, A.; Russell, A.
A national assessment of natural flood management and its contribution to fluvial flood risk reduction Journal Article
In: Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol. 18, no. 4, 2025, ISSN: 1753-318X, (The underlying HBV and SHETRAN results are available on DAFNI for registered users. Further datasets continued to be added.).
@article{6eddca46464a45b6a8ea63e59fd6adba,
title = {A national assessment of natural flood management and its contribution to fluvial flood risk reduction},
author = {P. B. Sayers and S. J. Birkinshaw and S. Carr and Y. He and L. Lewis and B. Smith and J. Redhead and R. Pywell and A. Ford and J. Virgo and R. J. Nicholls and J. Price and R. Warren and N. Forstenhäusler and A. Smith and A. Russell},
doi = {10.1111/jfr3.70151},
issn = {1753-318X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
volume = {18},
number = {4},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {The desire to promote Natural Flood Management (NFM) has not yet been matched by implementation. In part, this reflects thelack of scientific evidence regarding the ability of NFM measures to contribute to risk reduction at the national scale. Broad scaleunderstanding, as exemplified for Great Britain in this paper, is necessary evidence for policy development and a prerequisitefor implementation at scale. This does not imply a lack of confidence in the wider benefits that NFM provide (for biodiversity,carbon sequestration, well-being and many others), but without credible quantified flood risk reduction evidence, progress hasbeen slow. This paper integrates national-scale hydrological models (using SHETRAN and HBV-TYN) and fluvial flood riskanalysis (using the Future Flood Explorer, FFE) to quantify the flood risk reduction benefits of NFM across Great Britain underconditions of future climate and socio-economic change. An optimisation of these benefits is presented considering alternativeNFM policy ambitions and other demands on land (urban development, agriculture, and biodiversity). The findings suggest NFMhas the potential to make a significant contribution to national flood risk reduction when implemented as part of a portfolio ofmeasures. An optimisation through to 2100 suggests investment in NFM achieves a benefit-to-cost ratio of ~3 to 5 (based on thereduction in Expected Annual Damage (EAD) to residential properties alone). By the 2050s, this equates to an ~£80 m reductionin EAD under a scenario of low population growth and a 2°C rise in global warming by 2100. This increases to £110 m given ascenario of high population growth and a 4°C rise. Assuming current levels of adaptation continue in all other aspects of floodrisk management, this represents ~9%–13% of the reduction in EAD achieved by the portfolio as a whole. By the 2080s, the con-tribution of NFM to risk reduction increases to ~£110 and ~£145 m under these two scenarios. These figures are based on thereduction in EAD to residential properties alone, and do not include the substantial co-benefits that would also accrue.},
note = {The underlying HBV and SHETRAN results are available on DAFNI for registered users. Further datasets continued to be added.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The desire to promote Natural Flood Management (NFM) has not yet been matched by implementation. In part, this reflects thelack of scientific evidence regarding the ability of NFM measures to contribute to risk reduction at the national scale. Broad scaleunderstanding, as exemplified for Great Britain in this paper, is necessary evidence for policy development and a prerequisitefor implementation at scale. This does not imply a lack of confidence in the wider benefits that NFM provide (for biodiversity,carbon sequestration, well-being and many others), but without credible quantified flood risk reduction evidence, progress hasbeen slow. This paper integrates national-scale hydrological models (using SHETRAN and HBV-TYN) and fluvial flood riskanalysis (using the Future Flood Explorer, FFE) to quantify the flood risk reduction benefits of NFM across Great Britain underconditions of future climate and socio-economic change. An optimisation of these benefits is presented considering alternativeNFM policy ambitions and other demands on land (urban development, agriculture, and biodiversity). The findings suggest NFMhas the potential to make a significant contribution to national flood risk reduction when implemented as part of a portfolio ofmeasures. An optimisation through to 2100 suggests investment in NFM achieves a benefit-to-cost ratio of ~3 to 5 (based on thereduction in Expected Annual Damage (EAD) to residential properties alone). By the 2050s, this equates to an ~£80 m reductionin EAD under a scenario of low population growth and a 2°C rise in global warming by 2100. This increases to £110 m given ascenario of high population growth and a 4°C rise. Assuming current levels of adaptation continue in all other aspects of floodrisk management, this represents ~9%–13% of the reduction in EAD achieved by the portfolio as a whole. By the 2080s, the con-tribution of NFM to risk reduction increases to ~£110 and ~£145 m under these two scenarios. These figures are based on thereduction in EAD to residential properties alone, and do not include the substantial co-benefits that would also accrue.
6322.
Anthony, E.; Syvitski, J.; Cohen, K. M.; Saito, Y.; Zăinescu, F.; Vespremeanu-Stroe, A.; j. Nicholls, R.; Marriner, N.; Amorosi, A.; Maselli, V.; s. j. Minderhoud, P.; Tamura, T.; Day, J.; d. Woodroffe, C.; Preoteasa, L.; Tatui, F.; Sabatier, F.; Morhange, C.; Besset, M.; Kemp, P.; Chen, Z.
A 7000-year record of human influence on Global River Deltas: Geomorphology, stratigraphy, the Anthropocene overprint and future Journal Article
In: Earth-Science Reviews, vol. 271, 2025, ISSN: 0012-8252, (Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article.).
@article{1aa59fbf564a450f9c4b4f8d51733942,
title = {A 7000-year record of human influence on Global River Deltas: Geomorphology, stratigraphy, the Anthropocene overprint and future},
author = {E. Anthony and J. Syvitski and K. M. Cohen and Y. Saito and F. Zăinescu and A. Vespremeanu-Stroe and R. j. Nicholls and N. Marriner and A. Amorosi and V. Maselli and P. s. j. Minderhoud and T. Tamura and J. Day and C. d. Woodroffe and L. Preoteasa and F. Tatui and F. Sabatier and C. Morhange and M. Besset and P. Kemp and Z. Chen},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105302},
issn = {0012-8252},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
volume = {271},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {With the inception of most of the world's deltas about 8000 years ago, deltaic floodplains started offering, about a thousand years later, arable land, water and ecosystem services for early human settlements. We identify delta geomorphic changes and proxies and geoarchaeological markers of the human presence on deltas and in their stratigraphy over the last 7000 years, and from ancient maps. We analyse the human-delta relationship in four phases: Neolithic, Metal Ages, Common Era, and Anthropocene, marking increasing human adaptation to changing delta geomorphology modulated by fluctuations in relative sea level and fluvial sediment supply. These adaptations fostered the emergence of urbanization and served as a catalyst for technological innovation and human modification of deltas. The sparse Neolithic human presence in delta stratigraphy gradually expanded to become pervasive in the contemporary Anthropocene, reflecting the twin effects of global population growth and increasingly favourable conditions for humans. We explore the links between early deltaic and non-deltaic communities and gauge the impact of humans on sediment supply from river catchments, and its consequences, notably in terms of frequent delta avulsions, expansion or vulnerability, and explore its inextricable links with climate variation. The Anthropocene is witnessing a profoundly transformed, globally distributed, human-managed delta landscape dominated by important urbanization, reduction in sediment supply, increasing intentional but also unintentional delta modifications, and vulnerability to sea-level rise compounded by exacerbated subsidence. Understanding the human-delta relationship over the past 7000 years contributes to fostering stronger links between geoscience and cultural heritage, to better delta management and sustainability, including an upstream river-basin scale perspective, and to better anticipation of delta futures, notably under the threat of sea-level rise.},
note = {Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article.},
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pubstate = {published},
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}
With the inception of most of the world's deltas about 8000 years ago, deltaic floodplains started offering, about a thousand years later, arable land, water and ecosystem services for early human settlements. We identify delta geomorphic changes and proxies and geoarchaeological markers of the human presence on deltas and in their stratigraphy over the last 7000 years, and from ancient maps. We analyse the human-delta relationship in four phases: Neolithic, Metal Ages, Common Era, and Anthropocene, marking increasing human adaptation to changing delta geomorphology modulated by fluctuations in relative sea level and fluvial sediment supply. These adaptations fostered the emergence of urbanization and served as a catalyst for technological innovation and human modification of deltas. The sparse Neolithic human presence in delta stratigraphy gradually expanded to become pervasive in the contemporary Anthropocene, reflecting the twin effects of global population growth and increasingly favourable conditions for humans. We explore the links between early deltaic and non-deltaic communities and gauge the impact of humans on sediment supply from river catchments, and its consequences, notably in terms of frequent delta avulsions, expansion or vulnerability, and explore its inextricable links with climate variation. The Anthropocene is witnessing a profoundly transformed, globally distributed, human-managed delta landscape dominated by important urbanization, reduction in sediment supply, increasing intentional but also unintentional delta modifications, and vulnerability to sea-level rise compounded by exacerbated subsidence. Understanding the human-delta relationship over the past 7000 years contributes to fostering stronger links between geoscience and cultural heritage, to better delta management and sustainability, including an upstream river-basin scale perspective, and to better anticipation of delta futures, notably under the threat of sea-level rise.
6321.
Raj, Rengalakshmi; Ravula, Padmaja; Kumari, Pratheepa; Bhanjdeo, Arundhita; Sogani, Reetu; Rao, Nitya
Male migration and the transformation of gendered agriculture work: A comparative exploration of heterogeneity across selected Indian states Journal Article
In: Gender, Place & Culture, vol. 32, no. 12, pp. 1757–1785, 2025, ISSN: 0966-369X, (Funding information: Funding support for this study was provided by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Grant Ref: BB/P027970/1 under the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) award to Transforming India’s Green Revolution by Research and Empowerment for Sustainable food Supplies (TIGR2ESS).).
@article{f61943b087a04392a0afcf0f39d0d654,
title = {Male migration and the transformation of gendered agriculture work: A comparative exploration of heterogeneity across selected Indian states},
author = {Rengalakshmi Raj and Padmaja Ravula and Pratheepa Kumari and Arundhita Bhanjdeo and Reetu Sogani and Nitya Rao},
doi = {10.1080/0966369X.2025.2468178},
issn = {0966-369X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-01},
journal = {Gender, Place & Culture},
volume = {32},
number = {12},
pages = {1757–1785},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Male migration among agriculture-dependent households has emerged as an important livelihood strategy for coping with poverty, food insecurity, climate change, and several other risks and shocks in the Global South. Emerging research on the impacts of male migration on women’s agency, especially in agricultural production and decision-making, paints a one-size-fits-all picture. This paper, through a comparative, qualitative analysis of the implications of male out-migration on gender roles and responsibilities in agriculture across four different agroecologies in India – forested, mountainous, semi-arid, and coastal – highlights the heterogeneity in women’s experiences of male migration in the Indian context. While the nature of migration and the amount and regularity of remittances shape the increase or decline in women’s work and responsibilities, factors like age, caste, class, life stage, and context also play a significant role. We note that current scholarship has given too much importance to the narrative on remittance-driven livelihoods at the cost of multiple factors that shape women’s roles, experiences, and strategic choices in migrant-sending communities. What appears critical for transformative change is state policy that facilitates and enables collective action, central to overcoming the patriarchal constraints women encounter, especially as they shift from labouring to managerial roles in farming.},
note = {Funding information: Funding support for this study was provided by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Grant Ref: BB/P027970/1 under the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) award to Transforming India’s Green Revolution by Research and Empowerment for Sustainable food Supplies (TIGR2ESS).},
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Male migration among agriculture-dependent households has emerged as an important livelihood strategy for coping with poverty, food insecurity, climate change, and several other risks and shocks in the Global South. Emerging research on the impacts of male migration on women’s agency, especially in agricultural production and decision-making, paints a one-size-fits-all picture. This paper, through a comparative, qualitative analysis of the implications of male out-migration on gender roles and responsibilities in agriculture across four different agroecologies in India – forested, mountainous, semi-arid, and coastal – highlights the heterogeneity in women’s experiences of male migration in the Indian context. While the nature of migration and the amount and regularity of remittances shape the increase or decline in women’s work and responsibilities, factors like age, caste, class, life stage, and context also play a significant role. We note that current scholarship has given too much importance to the narrative on remittance-driven livelihoods at the cost of multiple factors that shape women’s roles, experiences, and strategic choices in migrant-sending communities. What appears critical for transformative change is state policy that facilitates and enables collective action, central to overcoming the patriarchal constraints women encounter, especially as they shift from labouring to managerial roles in farming.
6320.
Wilson, Charlie; Arvanitopoulos, Theodoros; Schaub, Simon; Jordan, Andrew; Tosun, Jale; Vasilakos, Nicholas
Climate policy portfolios that accelerate emission reductions Journal Article
In: Nature Communications, 2025, ISSN: 2041-1723.
@article{6c07a28b92e14905bcaca43893a6ae30,
title = {Climate policy portfolios that accelerate emission reductions},
author = {Charlie Wilson and Theodoros Arvanitopoulos and Simon Schaub and Andrew Jordan and Jale Tosun and Nicholas Vasilakos},
issn = {2041-1723},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-27},
journal = {Nature Communications},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {The corpus of national climate policies continues to grow, but to what effect? Using data on 2,782 policy instruments in 43 OECD countries and major emerging economies over the period 2000–2019 we show that national climate policy portfolios that specialise on certain instrument types and sectors are associated with faster reductions in fossil CO2 emission intensity. Supported by exemplar country case studies, we also provide quantitative evidence that the effectiveness of climate policy is amplified by the presence of long-term emission reduction targets and governmental bodies including dedicated ministries and intergovernmental organisations. Over the study period, the cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by adopting all portfolios amounted to 15.9 GtCO2 of which half was in the emerging economies. Our findings identify what type of climate policy portfolios are best at accelerating emission reductions in line with Paris Agreement goals.},
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pubstate = {published},
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The corpus of national climate policies continues to grow, but to what effect? Using data on 2,782 policy instruments in 43 OECD countries and major emerging economies over the period 2000–2019 we show that national climate policy portfolios that specialise on certain instrument types and sectors are associated with faster reductions in fossil CO2 emission intensity. Supported by exemplar country case studies, we also provide quantitative evidence that the effectiveness of climate policy is amplified by the presence of long-term emission reduction targets and governmental bodies including dedicated ministries and intergovernmental organisations. Over the study period, the cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by adopting all portfolios amounted to 15.9 GtCO2 of which half was in the emerging economies. Our findings identify what type of climate policy portfolios are best at accelerating emission reductions in line with Paris Agreement goals.
6319.
Janus, Tomasz; Barry, Christopher; Win, Shelly; Kuriakose, Jaise
Planning with emission models reduces the carbon footprint of new reservoirs Journal Article
In: Communications Earth and Environment, vol. 6, no. 1, 2025, ISSN: 2662-4435, (Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.).
@article{3bfdbba8f63e46aba4533e286b1222fc,
title = {Planning with emission models reduces the carbon footprint of new reservoirs},
author = {Tomasz Janus and Christopher Barry and Shelly Win and Jaise Kuriakose},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-025-02899-6},
issn = {2662-4435},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-24},
journal = {Communications Earth and Environment},
volume = {6},
number = {1},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
abstract = {Reservoirs collectively contribute 1–2% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, although individual emissions can vary widely. While emission models have considerably advanced our understanding of the lifetime carbon impacts of reservoirs globally and offer means to inform judicious planning, their widespread adoption is hindered by high manual processing requirements, uncertainties, and linkages to geospatial drivers that can be obscure for planners. Meanwhile, simpler Tier 1 methods fail to capture variability across individual reservoirs and can overestimate national emissions by 50% compared to model-based estimates. Here we introduce an automated and transparent framework for large scale reservoir emission assessments and planning with spatially-explicit emission models to address key limitations in current approaches. By applying our framework to strategic hydropower expansion in Myanmar, we show how emission models can support low-carbon reservoir development at large scales. Our results show that the proposed methodology can yield a hydropower strategy for Myanmar that eliminates 0.94 MtCO2e in emissions (1% of national total), conserves 239 km2 of forest and arable land, and reduces the number of barriers in lower river reaches from 28 to 7.},
note = {Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Reservoirs collectively contribute 1–2% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, although individual emissions can vary widely. While emission models have considerably advanced our understanding of the lifetime carbon impacts of reservoirs globally and offer means to inform judicious planning, their widespread adoption is hindered by high manual processing requirements, uncertainties, and linkages to geospatial drivers that can be obscure for planners. Meanwhile, simpler Tier 1 methods fail to capture variability across individual reservoirs and can overestimate national emissions by 50% compared to model-based estimates. Here we introduce an automated and transparent framework for large scale reservoir emission assessments and planning with spatially-explicit emission models to address key limitations in current approaches. By applying our framework to strategic hydropower expansion in Myanmar, we show how emission models can support low-carbon reservoir development at large scales. Our results show that the proposed methodology can yield a hydropower strategy for Myanmar that eliminates 0.94 MtCO2e in emissions (1% of national total), conserves 239 km2 of forest and arable land, and reduces the number of barriers in lower river reaches from 28 to 7.
6318.
Jennings, Will; Kenny, John; Roescu, Andra; Smedley, Stuart; Weldon, Kathleen; Enns, Peter K.
In: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 2025, ISSN: 1745-7289.
@article{1e7d54c2f8984a108fede39391d79ddc,
title = {Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the Gallup Poll in Britain, 1955–1991},
author = {Will Jennings and John Kenny and Andra Roescu and Stuart Smedley and Kathleen Weldon and Peter K. Enns},
doi = {10.1080/17457289.2025.2585102},
issn = {1745-7289},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-22},
journal = {Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {From the 1930s to early 2000s, the British affiliate and later subsidiary of the Gallup Organization conducted around three thousand surveys of public opinion in Great Britain. While the records of the headline results of some of these polls can be found in Gallup’s monthly reports and news reports from the time, most of the individual level survey data were previously believed to have been lost. This article details how we have been able to reconstruct much of this important historical record, converting almost 800 survey datasets from 1955 to 1991 found in the archives of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. It first offers a brief overview of how the data were converted from the original column-binary format and what it reveals about methodological practices of Gallup in Britain. We then develop weights to improve the representativeness of the data across the entire time period, using the data to offer a number of insights into long-term trends in British public opinion.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
From the 1930s to early 2000s, the British affiliate and later subsidiary of the Gallup Organization conducted around three thousand surveys of public opinion in Great Britain. While the records of the headline results of some of these polls can be found in Gallup’s monthly reports and news reports from the time, most of the individual level survey data were previously believed to have been lost. This article details how we have been able to reconstruct much of this important historical record, converting almost 800 survey datasets from 1955 to 1991 found in the archives of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. It first offers a brief overview of how the data were converted from the original column-binary format and what it reveals about methodological practices of Gallup in Britain. We then develop weights to improve the representativeness of the data across the entire time period, using the data to offer a number of insights into long-term trends in British public opinion.
6317.
Braunholtz-Speight, Tim; Brown, Claire; Sharmina, Maria; McLachlan, Carly; Paterson, Matthew; Archer, Tom
Debt and decarbonisation: Making net zero housing truly affordable Book
Tyndall Centre, United Kingdom, 2025.
@book{e64d3ab094024a05b4b8b3cc1fff7d01,
title = {Debt and decarbonisation: Making net zero housing truly affordable},
author = {Tim Braunholtz-Speight and Claire Brown and Maria Sharmina and Carly McLachlan and Matthew Paterson and Tom Archer},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-21},
publisher = {Tyndall Centre},
address = {United Kingdom},
abstract = {The UK needs more energy efficient low carbon social housing, but building it will increase developer costs at a time when the Regulator of Social Housing has noted that “financial headroom and capacity to absorb downside risk is reduced across the sector”. We explored how far reducing the cost of finance could improve economic viability, specifically with reference to Greater Manchester’s Truly Affordable Net Zero (TANZ) social housing programme, which aims to see 30,000 net zero social rent homes built in Greater Manchester by 2038.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {book}
}
The UK needs more energy efficient low carbon social housing, but building it will increase developer costs at a time when the Regulator of Social Housing has noted that “financial headroom and capacity to absorb downside risk is reduced across the sector”. We explored how far reducing the cost of finance could improve economic viability, specifically with reference to Greater Manchester’s Truly Affordable Net Zero (TANZ) social housing programme, which aims to see 30,000 net zero social rent homes built in Greater Manchester by 2038.
6316.
Few, Roger; Mwathunga, Evance; Manley, Nicole A. L.; Jere, Catherine
Homemaking in communities recovering from disaster Miscellaneous
2025.
@misc{e04a25b777c34f03812378fdd5c9ca39,
title = {Homemaking in communities recovering from disaster},
author = {Roger Few and Evance Mwathunga and Nicole A. L. Manley and Catherine Jere},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-21},
publisher = {Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research},
abstract = {This report summarises findings from a collaborative scoping project in Malawi on the topic of homemaking following extreme weather events. We worked with communities that have been displaced temporarily or permanently from their original homes by recent flooding and landslide events. Focus group discussions incorporating visual explorations of ‘home’ were held with communitymembers at sites in four districts of southern Malawi, and their testimonies of impact, response, needs and hopes were complemented with discussions at a workshop with national stakeholders from government, NGOs and universities. Through this exploratory research, we aimed to understand better people's key expectations/aspirations for recreating a sense of home in their new or reconstructed dwellings, the extent to which this has been or is being realised presently, and the conditions required in order to achieve a holistic sense of home. Key in this is a discussion that includes, but goes beyond, questions of the material construction and provision of hard infrastructure to consider more intangible, environmental and symbolic aspects of homemaking. The study engages with an increasing concern globally among agencies that are undertaking resettlement and reconstruction interventions on how to support a more holistic approach to homemaking for disaster-affected communities},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
This report summarises findings from a collaborative scoping project in Malawi on the topic of homemaking following extreme weather events. We worked with communities that have been displaced temporarily or permanently from their original homes by recent flooding and landslide events. Focus group discussions incorporating visual explorations of ‘home’ were held with communitymembers at sites in four districts of southern Malawi, and their testimonies of impact, response, needs and hopes were complemented with discussions at a workshop with national stakeholders from government, NGOs and universities. Through this exploratory research, we aimed to understand better people's key expectations/aspirations for recreating a sense of home in their new or reconstructed dwellings, the extent to which this has been or is being realised presently, and the conditions required in order to achieve a holistic sense of home. Key in this is a discussion that includes, but goes beyond, questions of the material construction and provision of hard infrastructure to consider more intangible, environmental and symbolic aspects of homemaking. The study engages with an increasing concern globally among agencies that are undertaking resettlement and reconstruction interventions on how to support a more holistic approach to homemaking for disaster-affected communities
6315.
Sharmina, Maria; Broad, Oliver; Barrett, John; Brand, Christian; Garvey, Alice; Kennard, Harry; Norman, Jonathan; Price, James; Pye, Steve; Snape, Jack; White, Emily
Policymaker-led scenarios and public dialogue facilitate energy demand analysis for net-zero futures Journal Article
In: Nature Energy, 2025, ISSN: 2058-7546.
@article{cf8dbb961e714bc3b42543ee70d15478,
title = {Policymaker-led scenarios and public dialogue facilitate energy demand analysis for net-zero futures},
author = {Maria Sharmina and Oliver Broad and John Barrett and Christian Brand and Alice Garvey and Harry Kennard and Jonathan Norman and James Price and Steve Pye and Jack Snape and Emily White},
doi = {10.1038/s41560-025-01898-3},
issn = {2058-7546},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-20},
journal = {Nature Energy},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
abstract = {Demand-side energy reductions have so far received less policy support than supply-side net-zero technologies. Here, we undertake a demand focused process for energy scenario analysis, led by policymakers and evaluated through public dialogue. We co-design, describe, and model, four societal futures that aim to achieve the UK’s 2050 net-zero target. The uniquely close involvement of policymakers leading the project generates markedly different narratives that reflect policymakers’ concerns, while still leading to scenarios with reductions in energy demand of 18%–45% – exceeding what policies normally suggest. By 2050, technology-focused systems cost 20%–100% more than lower-demand ones. While intensive co-creation requires more complex interactions compared to academic-led research, it provides space for important, and otherwise absent, energy demand conversations. This work demonstrates how engaging policymakers to co-lead energy scenarios can challenge conventional policy assumptions on energy demand, whilst offering an approach to support global climate mitigation efforts.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Demand-side energy reductions have so far received less policy support than supply-side net-zero technologies. Here, we undertake a demand focused process for energy scenario analysis, led by policymakers and evaluated through public dialogue. We co-design, describe, and model, four societal futures that aim to achieve the UK’s 2050 net-zero target. The uniquely close involvement of policymakers leading the project generates markedly different narratives that reflect policymakers’ concerns, while still leading to scenarios with reductions in energy demand of 18%–45% – exceeding what policies normally suggest. By 2050, technology-focused systems cost 20%–100% more than lower-demand ones. While intensive co-creation requires more complex interactions compared to academic-led research, it provides space for important, and otherwise absent, energy demand conversations. This work demonstrates how engaging policymakers to co-lead energy scenarios can challenge conventional policy assumptions on energy demand, whilst offering an approach to support global climate mitigation efforts.
6314.
Li, Wenzhu; Cunningham, Lee; Schultz, David; Mander, Sarah; Gan, Chin Kim; Panteli, Mathaios
Assessing structural resilience of masonry chamber-housed substations subject to flood flow and debris impact Journal Article
In: Innovative Infrastructure Solutions, vol. 10, pp. 1–17, 2025, ISSN: 2364-4176.
@article{e1108f7213ef42caad08d37f36b8fcba,
title = {Assessing structural resilience of masonry chamber-housed substations subject to flood flow and debris impact},
author = {Wenzhu Li and Lee Cunningham and David Schultz and Sarah Mander and Chin Kim Gan and Mathaios Panteli},
doi = {10.1007/s41062-025-02347-6},
issn = {2364-4176},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-15},
journal = {Innovative Infrastructure Solutions},
volume = {10},
pages = {1–17},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
abstract = {Chamber-housed substations are a common substation type, essential for voltage regulation, load balancing, and fault isolation to ensure power supply grid stability and reliability. As typically ground-based structures, chamber-housed substations are vulnerable to damage from flooding. In the case of chambers constructed from plain masonry, these may be susceptible to structural damage from forces generated by flood flows. Although previous studies have examined substation failures based on flood levels, they often overlook the structural damage caused by moving floodwaters and floating debris, thereby underestimating risks and overestimating substation resilience. The present study introduces an analytical framework that uses computational fluid dynamics (CFD) coupled with finite element (FE) analysis to predict flood forces and structural responses in a level of detail that would hitherto not be possible with existing design code approaches. The CFD-based modelling approach was validated against existing hydraulic experiments and subsequently applied to a case study of a typical masonry chamber-housed substation in Malaysia, a country prone to severe annual flooding. The results reveal that substation walls can withstand flood velocities up to 10 m/s without debris. However, the presence of debris leads to damage at velocities below 2 m/s, highlighting a significant reduction in resilience. Fragility and risk curves, derived from a normalised Weibull function, further reveal that ignoring debris impact underestimates forces on walls by 60% to 83%. These findings highlight the need to update design guidelines to account for debris impact and to develop suitable retrofitting strategies for existing chambers.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Chamber-housed substations are a common substation type, essential for voltage regulation, load balancing, and fault isolation to ensure power supply grid stability and reliability. As typically ground-based structures, chamber-housed substations are vulnerable to damage from flooding. In the case of chambers constructed from plain masonry, these may be susceptible to structural damage from forces generated by flood flows. Although previous studies have examined substation failures based on flood levels, they often overlook the structural damage caused by moving floodwaters and floating debris, thereby underestimating risks and overestimating substation resilience. The present study introduces an analytical framework that uses computational fluid dynamics (CFD) coupled with finite element (FE) analysis to predict flood forces and structural responses in a level of detail that would hitherto not be possible with existing design code approaches. The CFD-based modelling approach was validated against existing hydraulic experiments and subsequently applied to a case study of a typical masonry chamber-housed substation in Malaysia, a country prone to severe annual flooding. The results reveal that substation walls can withstand flood velocities up to 10 m/s without debris. However, the presence of debris leads to damage at velocities below 2 m/s, highlighting a significant reduction in resilience. Fragility and risk curves, derived from a normalised Weibull function, further reveal that ignoring debris impact underestimates forces on walls by 60% to 83%. These findings highlight the need to update design guidelines to account for debris impact and to develop suitable retrofitting strategies for existing chambers.
6313.
Friedlingstein, Pierre; O'Sullivan, Michael; Jones, Matthew W.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Bakker, Dorothee C. E.; Hauck, Judith; Landschutzer, Peter; Quéré, Corinne Le; Li, Hongmei; Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Peters, Glen P.; Peters, Wouter; Pongratz, Julia; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Sitch, Stephen; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Aas, Kjetil; Alin, Simone R.; Anthoni, Peter; Barbero, Leticia; Bates, Nicholas R.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Benoit-Cattin, Alice; Berghoff, Carla F.; Bernardello, Raffaelle; Bopp, Laurent; Brasika, Ida B. M.; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Chandra, Naveen; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Collier, Nathan O.; Colligan, Thomas H.; Cronin, Margot; Djeutchouang, Laique; Dou, Xinyu; Enright, Matt P.; Enyo, Kazutaka; Erb, Michael; Evans, Wiley; Feely, Richard A.; Feng, Liang; Ford, Daniel J.; Foster, Adrianna; Fransner, Filippa; Gasser, Thomas; Gehlen, Marion; Gkritzalis, Thanos; Souza, Jefferson Goncalves De; Grassi, Giacomo; Gregor, Luke; Gruber, Nicolas; Guenet, Bertrand; Gürses, Özgür; Harrington, Kirsty; Harris, Ian; Heinke, Jens; Hurtt, George C.; Iida, Yosuke; Ilyina, Tatiana; Ito, Akihiko; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Jain, Atul K.; Jarníková, Tereza; Jersild, Annika; Jiang, Fei; Jones, Steve D.; Kato, Etsushi; Keeling, Ralph F.; Goldewijk, Kees Klein; Knauer, Jürgen; Kong, Yawen; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Koven, Charles; Kunimitsu, Taro; Lan, Xin; Liu, Junjie; Liu, Zhiqiang; Liu, Zhu; Monaco, Claire Lo; Ma, Lei; Marland, Gregg; Mcguire, Patrick C.; McKinley, Galen A.; Melton, Joe; Monacci, Natalie; Monier, Erwan; Morgan, Eric J.; Munro, David R.; Müller, Jens D.; Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro; Nayagam, Lorna R.; Niwa, Yosuke; Nutzel, Tobias; Olsen, Are; Omar, Abdirahman M.; Pan, Naiqing; Pandey, Sudhanshu; Pierrot, Denis; Qin, Zhangcai; Regnier, Pierre A. G.; Rehder, Gregor; Resplandy, Laure; Roobaert, Alizée; Rosan, Thais M.; Rödenbeck, Christian; Schwinger, Jörg; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Smallman, T. Luke; Spada, Victoria; Sreeush, Mohana G.; Sun, Qing; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Sweeney, Colm; Swingedouw, Didier; Séférian, Roland; Takao, Shintaro; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Tian, Hanqin; Tian, Xiangjun; Tilbrook, Bronte; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Tubiello, Francesco; Ooijen, Erik Van; Werf, Guido; Velde, Sebastiaan J.; Walker, Anthony; Wanninkhof, Rik; Yang, Xiaojuan; Yuan, Wenping; Yue, Xu; Zeng, Jiye
Global Carbon Budget 2025 Journal Article
In: Earth System Science Data, 2025, ISSN: 1866-3508, (Data sets Data Supporting the Global Carbon Budget 2025 P. Friedlingstein et al. https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025).
@article{4ee15f193d994ddfa079bd74ef575375,
title = {Global Carbon Budget 2025},
author = {Pierre Friedlingstein and Michael O'Sullivan and Matthew W. Jones and Robbie M. Andrew and Dorothee C. E. Bakker and Judith Hauck and Peter Landschutzer and Corinne Le Quéré and Hongmei Li and Ingrid T. Luijkx and Glen P. Peters and Wouter Peters and Julia Pongratz and Clemens Schwingshackl and Stephen Sitch and Josep G. Canadell and Philippe Ciais and Kjetil Aas and Simone R. Alin and Peter Anthoni and Leticia Barbero and Nicholas R. Bates and Nicolas Bellouin and Alice Benoit-Cattin and Carla F. Berghoff and Raffaelle Bernardello and Laurent Bopp and Ida B. M. Brasika and Matthew A. Chamberlain and Naveen Chandra and Frédéric Chevallier and Louise P. Chini and Nathan O. Collier and Thomas H. Colligan and Margot Cronin and Laique Djeutchouang and Xinyu Dou and Matt P. Enright and Kazutaka Enyo and Michael Erb and Wiley Evans and Richard A. Feely and Liang Feng and Daniel J. Ford and Adrianna Foster and Filippa Fransner and Thomas Gasser and Marion Gehlen and Thanos Gkritzalis and Jefferson Goncalves De Souza and Giacomo Grassi and Luke Gregor and Nicolas Gruber and Bertrand Guenet and Özgür Gürses and Kirsty Harrington and Ian Harris and Jens Heinke and George C. Hurtt and Yosuke Iida and Tatiana Ilyina and Akihiko Ito and Andrew R. Jacobson and Atul K. Jain and Tereza Jarníková and Annika Jersild and Fei Jiang and Steve D. Jones and Etsushi Kato and Ralph F. Keeling and Kees Klein Goldewijk and Jürgen Knauer and Yawen Kong and Jan Ivar Korsbakken and Charles Koven and Taro Kunimitsu and Xin Lan and Junjie Liu and Zhiqiang Liu and Zhu Liu and Claire Lo Monaco and Lei Ma and Gregg Marland and Patrick C. Mcguire and Galen A. McKinley and Joe Melton and Natalie Monacci and Erwan Monier and Eric J. Morgan and David R. Munro and Jens D. Müller and Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka and Lorna R. Nayagam and Yosuke Niwa and Tobias Nutzel and Are Olsen and Abdirahman M. Omar and Naiqing Pan and Sudhanshu Pandey and Denis Pierrot and Zhangcai Qin and Pierre A. G. Regnier and Gregor Rehder and Laure Resplandy and Alizée Roobaert and Thais M. Rosan and Christian Rödenbeck and Jörg Schwinger and Ingunn Skjelvan and T. Luke Smallman and Victoria Spada and Mohana G. Sreeush and Qing Sun and Adrienne J. Sutton and Colm Sweeney and Didier Swingedouw and Roland Séférian and Shintaro Takao and Hiroaki Tatebe and Hanqin Tian and Xiangjun Tian and Bronte Tilbrook and Hiroyuki Tsujino and Francesco Tubiello and Erik Van Ooijen and Guido Werf and Sebastiaan J. Velde and Anthony Walker and Rik Wanninkhof and Xiaojuan Yang and Wenping Yuan and Xu Yue and Jiye Zeng},
issn = {1866-3508},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-13},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
abstract = {Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use and land-use change data. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured at surface stations, and the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ.},
note = {Data sets Data Supporting the Global Carbon Budget 2025 P. Friedlingstein et al. https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use and land-use change data. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured at surface stations, and the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ.
6312.
Kumar, Sunil; Esposito, Lucio; Villaseñor, Adrián; Macedo, Sandra
Gender, race and their interplay with economic status: Intersectionality and asymmetric jeopardies in Brazilian education Journal Article
In: World Development, vol. 199, 2025, ISSN: 0305-750X, (Data availability: Data will be made available on request.).
@article{84ef2940744f43cba7187233e662635d,
title = {Gender, race and their interplay with economic status: Intersectionality and asymmetric jeopardies in Brazilian education},
author = {Sunil Kumar and Lucio Esposito and Adrián Villaseñor and Sandra Macedo},
doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107232},
issn = {0305-750X},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-13},
journal = {World Development},
volume = {199},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {A large body of research has illustrated how inequalities in educational achievements globally are rooted in a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. However, the sources of educational disadvantages are too often considered in isolation, without addressing how they interplay with one another. Building upon the intersectionality and multiple jeopardy frameworks, in this paper we employ a sequential mixed-methods approach to analyse the role played by economic status, gender and race in shaping education attainment in Brazilian high-stakes secondary education exams. Our specific focus is on how economic status, conceptualised as comprising an absolute and a relative facet, interplays with gender and race. Our quantitative analysis reveals that the two components of economic status interplay symmetrically with gender but asymmetrically with race. Gender attainment gaps shrink with higher absolute and relative status. Race attainment gaps also shrink with higher absolute status, but they expand with higher relative status. We use the insights obtained from the literature as well as from our qualitative interviews to situate and explain these findings. Our work improves the understanding of the multifaceted disadvantage experienced by students from underprivileged households in Brazil, highlighting how economic inequality and discrimination hinder educational attainment and jeopardise social mobility.},
note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
A large body of research has illustrated how inequalities in educational achievements globally are rooted in a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. However, the sources of educational disadvantages are too often considered in isolation, without addressing how they interplay with one another. Building upon the intersectionality and multiple jeopardy frameworks, in this paper we employ a sequential mixed-methods approach to analyse the role played by economic status, gender and race in shaping education attainment in Brazilian high-stakes secondary education exams. Our specific focus is on how economic status, conceptualised as comprising an absolute and a relative facet, interplays with gender and race. Our quantitative analysis reveals that the two components of economic status interplay symmetrically with gender but asymmetrically with race. Gender attainment gaps shrink with higher absolute and relative status. Race attainment gaps also shrink with higher absolute status, but they expand with higher relative status. We use the insights obtained from the literature as well as from our qualitative interviews to situate and explain these findings. Our work improves the understanding of the multifaceted disadvantage experienced by students from underprivileged households in Brazil, highlighting how economic inequality and discrimination hinder educational attainment and jeopardise social mobility.
6311.
Friedlingstein, Pierre; Quéré, Corinne Le; O’Sullivan, Michael; Hauck, Judith; Landschützer, Peter; Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Li, Hongmei; der woude, Auke Van; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Pongratz, Julia; Regnier, Pierre; Andrew, Robbie M.; c. e. Bakker, Dorothee; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Gasser, Thomas; Jones, Matthew W.; Lan, Xin; Morgan, Eric; Olsen, Are; Peters, Glen P.; Peters, Wouter; Sitch, Stephen; Tian, Hanqin
Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget Journal Article
In: Nature, vol. 649, no. 8095, pp. 98–103, 2025, ISSN: 0028-0836, (Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.).
@article{927a2e137a084499abef532a18d7a573,
title = {Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget},
author = {Pierre Friedlingstein and Corinne Le Quéré and Michael O’Sullivan and Judith Hauck and Peter Landschützer and Ingrid T. Luijkx and Hongmei Li and Auke Van der woude and Clemens Schwingshackl and Julia Pongratz and Pierre Regnier and Robbie M. Andrew and Dorothee c. e. Bakker and Josep G. Canadell and Philippe Ciais and Thomas Gasser and Matthew W. Jones and Xin Lan and Eric Morgan and Are Olsen and Glen P. Peters and Wouter Peters and Stephen Sitch and Hanqin Tian},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-025-09802-5},
issn = {0028-0836},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-12},
journal = {Nature},
volume = {649},
number = {8095},
pages = {98–103},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {Despite the adoption of the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from burning fossil fuels continue to increase, pushing atmospheric CO 2 levels to 423 ppm in 2024 and driving human-induced warming to 1.36 °C, within years of breaching the 1.5 °C limit 1,2. Accurate reporting of anthropogenic and natural CO 2 sources and sinks is a prerequisite to tracking the effectiveness of climate policy and detecting carbon-sink responses to climate change. Yet notable mismatches between reported emissions and sinks have so far prevented confident interpretation of their trends and drivers 1. Here we present and integrate recent advances in observations and process understanding to address some long-standing issues in global carbon budget estimates. We show that the magnitude of the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, whereas net emissions from anthropogenic land-use change are revised upwards 1. The ocean sink is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with recent evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations 3,4. Climate change reduces the efficiency of the sinks, particularly on land, contributing 8.3 ± 1.4 ppm to the atmospheric CO 2 increase since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation have turned Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO 2 sinks to sources. This underscores the need to halt deforestation and limit warming to prevent further loss of carbon stored on land. Improved confidence in assessments of CO 2 sources and sinks is fundamental for effective climate policy.},
note = {Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Despite the adoption of the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from burning fossil fuels continue to increase, pushing atmospheric CO 2 levels to 423 ppm in 2024 and driving human-induced warming to 1.36 °C, within years of breaching the 1.5 °C limit 1,2. Accurate reporting of anthropogenic and natural CO 2 sources and sinks is a prerequisite to tracking the effectiveness of climate policy and detecting carbon-sink responses to climate change. Yet notable mismatches between reported emissions and sinks have so far prevented confident interpretation of their trends and drivers 1. Here we present and integrate recent advances in observations and process understanding to address some long-standing issues in global carbon budget estimates. We show that the magnitude of the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, whereas net emissions from anthropogenic land-use change are revised upwards 1. The ocean sink is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with recent evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations 3,4. Climate change reduces the efficiency of the sinks, particularly on land, contributing 8.3 ± 1.4 ppm to the atmospheric CO 2 increase since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation have turned Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO 2 sinks to sources. This underscores the need to halt deforestation and limit warming to prevent further loss of carbon stored on land. Improved confidence in assessments of CO 2 sources and sinks is fundamental for effective climate policy.
6310.
Sullivan-Thomsett, Chantal
Competing for the centre-left? Urban German Green Party activists and the party–movement interface Book Chapter
In: Bratberg, Øivind; Brandal, Nik. (Ed.): Social democracy and urban politics: Party responses to the diversifying left in European cities, pp. 230–252, Manchester University Press, United Kingdom, 2025, ISBN: 9781526180940.
@inbook{cb10277fda304934b31de9e707822b06,
title = {Competing for the centre-left? Urban German Green Party activists and the party–movement interface},
author = {Chantal Sullivan-Thomsett},
editor = {Øivind Bratberg and Nik. Brandal},
doi = {10.7765/9781526187628.00021},
isbn = {9781526180940},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-11},
booktitle = {Social democracy and urban politics: Party responses to the diversifying left in European cities},
pages = {230–252},
publisher = {Manchester University Press},
address = {United Kingdom},
abstract = {The chapter explores the case of Germany, where a Green party was recently competing with the social democrats as the dominant party of the urban centre left, by focusing on the interplay between Green party activists and social movements. Considered by some as the ‘paradigmatic’ Green party due to their swift institutionalisation, the German Greens’ movement party origins are consigned by many scholars to their history, thereby often overlooking the long-term imprint of their movement past and their continued networks with progressive movements and protests. This chapter argues that both these interpretations of a party/movement interface co-exist and strategically interact across party structures and grassroots activism. Drawing on extensive empirical data with Green Party members in three cities across 2018-2019, the chapter first highlights the authenticity party members feel by reproducing a participatory party brand closely aligned with protest and social movements. Secondly, it explores the strategic, instrumental aspect of the party/movement interface and how parties need to interact and often compete with other leftist parties and movements to attract electoral support from left-wing individuals. This investigation into the German context underscores the importance of centre-left parties nurturing and maintaining links and alliances, particularly at the local level, to other leftist and progressive parties and movements, even when in office at the state or national level. By doing so, leftist parties can more effectively promote urban centre-left politics and policy in times of rising support for the far right.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inbook}
}
The chapter explores the case of Germany, where a Green party was recently competing with the social democrats as the dominant party of the urban centre left, by focusing on the interplay between Green party activists and social movements. Considered by some as the ‘paradigmatic’ Green party due to their swift institutionalisation, the German Greens’ movement party origins are consigned by many scholars to their history, thereby often overlooking the long-term imprint of their movement past and their continued networks with progressive movements and protests. This chapter argues that both these interpretations of a party/movement interface co-exist and strategically interact across party structures and grassroots activism. Drawing on extensive empirical data with Green Party members in three cities across 2018-2019, the chapter first highlights the authenticity party members feel by reproducing a participatory party brand closely aligned with protest and social movements. Secondly, it explores the strategic, instrumental aspect of the party/movement interface and how parties need to interact and often compete with other leftist parties and movements to attract electoral support from left-wing individuals. This investigation into the German context underscores the importance of centre-left parties nurturing and maintaining links and alliances, particularly at the local level, to other leftist and progressive parties and movements, even when in office at the state or national level. By doing so, leftist parties can more effectively promote urban centre-left politics and policy in times of rising support for the far right.
6309.
Lorenzoni, Irene; Jordan, Andrew James; Sullivan-Thomsett, Chantal; Geese, Lucas
A review of National Citizens’ Climate Assemblies: Learning from deliberative events Journal Article
In: Climate Policy, vol. 25, no. 9, pp. 1546–1562, 2025, ISSN: 1469-3062, (Funding information: Funding for this work was generously provided by a European Research Council Advanced Grant ‘DeepDCarb’ (Grant Number 882601) and the UK ESRC Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST, Phases 1 and 2) (ES/S012257/1 and UKRI072).).
@article{1e7b5f9fe6a146fcacc3835aba285d03,
title = {A review of National Citizens’ Climate Assemblies: Learning from deliberative events},
author = {Irene Lorenzoni and Andrew James Jordan and Chantal Sullivan-Thomsett and Lucas Geese},
doi = {10.1080/14693062.2024.2449416},
issn = {1469-3062},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-01},
journal = {Climate Policy},
volume = {25},
number = {9},
pages = {1546–1562},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
abstract = {Citizen’s Climate Assemblies (CCA) have been hailed by academics and non-academics as initiatives to improve the legitimacy and efficacy of climate policy governance. Yet it is only recently that such normative claims have been explored empirically. This article reviews the rapidly emerging literature on citizens’ assemblies – and specifically national citizens’ climate assemblies (NCCAs) – and related deliberative events. It critically reflects upon the emerging themes in the literature and assesses their significance for understanding climate policy and governance. It reveals that advocates of assemblies originally claimed that they would: (1) provide an opportunity to improve the input of evidence into policymaking; (2) raise the political awareness of climate action among citizens and elites; and (3) improve the quality of policymaking. However, a much more nuanced picture of their actual role is beginning to appear. It indicates that each assembly is in fact unique in character, shaped by how it combines design features and the contextual conditions in which they operate. This further affects their impact. Views on NCCAs vary significantly: whilst some politicians are dismissive of their contribution, environmental NGOs have generally been the most supportive; the reception among publics has varied greatly; business and industry have only recently begun to discuss their relevance. Although the recommendations of NCCAs are variously implemented, acknowledgement of their wider and deeper impacts is also emerging, alongside proposals for more systematic assessments of their long-term effects. We reflect on future prospects for NCCAs in relation to political institutions, policy processes and wider society.},
note = {Funding information: Funding for this work was generously provided by a European Research Council Advanced Grant ‘DeepDCarb’ (Grant Number 882601) and the UK ESRC Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST, Phases 1 and 2) (ES/S012257/1 and UKRI072).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Citizen’s Climate Assemblies (CCA) have been hailed by academics and non-academics as initiatives to improve the legitimacy and efficacy of climate policy governance. Yet it is only recently that such normative claims have been explored empirically. This article reviews the rapidly emerging literature on citizens’ assemblies – and specifically national citizens’ climate assemblies (NCCAs) – and related deliberative events. It critically reflects upon the emerging themes in the literature and assesses their significance for understanding climate policy and governance. It reveals that advocates of assemblies originally claimed that they would: (1) provide an opportunity to improve the input of evidence into policymaking; (2) raise the political awareness of climate action among citizens and elites; and (3) improve the quality of policymaking. However, a much more nuanced picture of their actual role is beginning to appear. It indicates that each assembly is in fact unique in character, shaped by how it combines design features and the contextual conditions in which they operate. This further affects their impact. Views on NCCAs vary significantly: whilst some politicians are dismissive of their contribution, environmental NGOs have generally been the most supportive; the reception among publics has varied greatly; business and industry have only recently begun to discuss their relevance. Although the recommendations of NCCAs are variously implemented, acknowledgement of their wider and deeper impacts is also emerging, alongside proposals for more systematic assessments of their long-term effects. We reflect on future prospects for NCCAs in relation to political institutions, policy processes and wider society.
6308.
Li, Wenzhu; Cunningham, Lee; Osman, Ashraf; Sun, Hongjian
Enhancing Grid Flood Resilience with CFD Fragility Modelling and Risk-Constrained DRL Proceedings Article
In: 2025 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm), pp. 1–6, IEEE, United States, 2025, (2025 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm) ; Conference date: 29-09-2025 Through 02-10-2025).
@inproceedings{7cdd4696834748c4bba233a6ace1355d,
title = {Enhancing Grid Flood Resilience with CFD Fragility Modelling and Risk-Constrained DRL},
author = {Wenzhu Li and Lee Cunningham and Ashraf Osman and Hongjian Sun},
url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/conhome/11204555/proceeding},
doi = {10.1109/SmartGridComm65349.2025.11204561},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-21},
booktitle = {2025 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm)},
pages = {1–6},
publisher = {IEEE},
address = {United States},
abstract = {Flood-induced failures in power distribution networks compromise grid resilience, while existing resilient control strategies often rely on static risk models and lack integration with physical flood dynamics. This paper presents a hybrid framework that combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) with Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to enable dynamic risk-aware control under evolving flood conditions. High-resolution flood scenarios are simulated using ANSYS Fluent, where stochastic hydrodynamic parameters are sampled from calibrated Weibull distributions. These parameters are embedded into a Maskable Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) agent trained with Conditional Value-at Risk (CVaR) constraints, enabling the learning of risk constrained control policies without requiring real-time CFD computations. This architecture preserves physical fidelity while ensuring dynamic feasibility. When evaluated on the extended IEEE 123-bus feeder, the proposed CFD–DRL controller achieves a 49% reduction in energy not supplied (ENS) and improves CVaR compliance from 85% to 98%, compared to the conventional MPC baseline. The results demonstrate that integrating high-fidelity numerical modelling with scalable learning-based control significantly enhances the adaptability and robustness of flood-resilient grid operations.},
note = {2025 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids (SmartGridComm) ; Conference date: 29-09-2025 Through 02-10-2025},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
Flood-induced failures in power distribution networks compromise grid resilience, while existing resilient control strategies often rely on static risk models and lack integration with physical flood dynamics. This paper presents a hybrid framework that combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) with Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to enable dynamic risk-aware control under evolving flood conditions. High-resolution flood scenarios are simulated using ANSYS Fluent, where stochastic hydrodynamic parameters are sampled from calibrated Weibull distributions. These parameters are embedded into a Maskable Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) agent trained with Conditional Value-at Risk (CVaR) constraints, enabling the learning of risk constrained control policies without requiring real-time CFD computations. This architecture preserves physical fidelity while ensuring dynamic feasibility. When evaluated on the extended IEEE 123-bus feeder, the proposed CFD–DRL controller achieves a 49% reduction in energy not supplied (ENS) and improves CVaR compliance from 85% to 98%, compared to the conventional MPC baseline. The results demonstrate that integrating high-fidelity numerical modelling with scalable learning-based control significantly enhances the adaptability and robustness of flood-resilient grid operations.
6307.
Kelley, Douglas I.; Burton, Chantelle; Giuseppe, Francesca Di; Jones, Matthew W.; Barbosa, Maria L. F.; Brambleby, Esther; McNorton, Joe R.; Liu, Zhongwei; Bradley, Anna S. I.; Blackford, Katie; Burke, Eleanor; Ciavarella, Andrew; Tomaso, Enza Di; Eden, Jonathan; Ferreira, Igor José M.; Fiedler, Lukas; Hartley, Andrew J.; Keeping, Theodore R.; Lampe, Seppe; Lombardi, Anna; Mataveli, Guilherme; Qu, Yuquan; Silva, Patrícia S.; Spuler, Fiona R.; Steinmann, Carmen B.; Torres-Vázquez, Miguel Ángel; Veiga, Renata; Wees, Dave; Wessel, Jakob B.; Wright, Emily; Bilbao, Bibiana; Bourbonnais, Mathieu; Gao, Cong; Bella, Carlos M. Di; Dintwe, Kebonye; Donovan, Victoria M.; Harris, Sarah; Kukavskaya, Elena A.; N’Dri, Aya Brigitte; Santín, Cristina; Selaya, Galia; Sjöström, Johan; Abatzoglou, John T.; Andela, Niels; Carmenta, Rachel; Chuvieco, Emilio; Giglio, Louis; Hamilton, Douglas S.; Hantson, Stijn; Meier, Sarah; Parrington, Mark; Sadegh, Mojtaba; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Sedano, Fernando; Turco, Marco; Werf, Guido R.; Veraverbeke, Sander; Anderson, Liana O.; Clarke, Hamish; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Kolden, Crystal A.
State of Wildfires 2024–2025 Journal Article
In: Earth System Science Data, vol. 17, no. 10, pp. 5377–5488, 2025, ISSN: 1866-3508.
@article{66f707419fe546cfbd006d55240aac7e,
title = {State of Wildfires 2024–2025},
author = {Douglas I. Kelley and Chantelle Burton and Francesca Di Giuseppe and Matthew W. Jones and Maria L. F. Barbosa and Esther Brambleby and Joe R. McNorton and Zhongwei Liu and Anna S. I. Bradley and Katie Blackford and Eleanor Burke and Andrew Ciavarella and Enza Di Tomaso and Jonathan Eden and Igor José M. Ferreira and Lukas Fiedler and Andrew J. Hartley and Theodore R. Keeping and Seppe Lampe and Anna Lombardi and Guilherme Mataveli and Yuquan Qu and Patrícia S. Silva and Fiona R. Spuler and Carmen B. Steinmann and Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez and Renata Veiga and Dave Wees and Jakob B. Wessel and Emily Wright and Bibiana Bilbao and Mathieu Bourbonnais and Cong Gao and Carlos M. Di Bella and Kebonye Dintwe and Victoria M. Donovan and Sarah Harris and Elena A. Kukavskaya and Aya Brigitte N’Dri and Cristina Santín and Galia Selaya and Johan Sjöström and John T. Abatzoglou and Niels Andela and Rachel Carmenta and Emilio Chuvieco and Louis Giglio and Douglas S. Hamilton and Stijn Hantson and Sarah Meier and Mark Parrington and Mojtaba Sadegh and Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz and Fernando Sedano and Marco Turco and Guido R. Werf and Sander Veraverbeke and Liana O. Anderson and Hamish Clarke and Paulo M. Fernandes and Crystal A. Kolden},
doi = {10.5194/essd-17-5377-2025},
issn = {1866-3508},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-16},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
volume = {17},
number = {10},
pages = {5377–5488},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
abstract = {Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires globally, yet our understanding of these high-impact events remains uneven and shaped by media attention and regional research biases. The State of Wildfires project systematically tracks global and regional fire activity of each annual fire season, analyses the causes of prominent extreme wildfire events, and projects the likelihood of similar events occurring in future climate scenarios. This, its second annual report, covers the March 2024 to February 2025 fire season. During the 2024–2025 fire season, fire-related carbon (C) emissions totalled 2.2 Pg C, 9 % above average and the sixth highest on record since 2003, despite below-average global burned area (BA). Extreme fire seasons in South America’s rainforests, dry forests, and wetlands and in Canada’s boreal forests pushed up the global C emissions total. Fire C emissions were over 4 times above average in Bolivia, 3 times above average in Canada, and ∼ 50 % above average in Brazil and Venezuela. Wildfires in 2024–2025 caused 100 fatalities in Nepal, 34 in South Africa, and 31 in Los Angeles, with additional fatalities reported in Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, Portugal, and Türkiye. The Eaton and Palisades fires in Southern California caused 150 000 evacuations and USD 140 billion in damages. Communities in Brazil, Bolivia, Southern California, and northern India were exposed to fine particulate matter at concentrations 13–60 times WHO’s daily air quality standards. We evaluated the causes and predictability of four extreme wildfire episodes from the 2024–2025 fire season, including in Northeast Amazonia (January–March 2024), the Pantanal–Chiquitano border regions of Brazil and Bolivia (August–September 2024), Southern California (January 2025), and the Congo Basin (July–August 2024). Anomalous weather created conditions for these regional extremes, while fuel availability and human ignitions shaped spatial patterns and temporal fire dynamics. In the three tropical regions, prolonged drought was the dominant fire enabler, whereas in California, extreme heat, wind, and antecedent fuel build-up were compounding enablers. Our attribution analyses show that climate change made extreme fire weather in Northeast Amazonia 30–70 times more likely, increasing BA roughly 4-fold compared to a scenario without climate change. In the Pantanal–Chiquitano, fire weather was 4–5 times more likely, with 35-fold increases in BA. Meanwhile, our analyses suggest that BA was 25 times higher in Southern California due to climate change. The Congo Basin’s fire weather was 3–8 times more likely with climate change, with a 2.7-fold increase in BA. Socioeconomic changes since the pre-industrial period, including land-use change, also likely increased BA in Northeast Amazonia. Our models project that events on the scale of 2024–2025 will become up to 57 %, 34 %, and 50 % more frequent than in the modern era in Northeast Amazonia, the Pantanal–Chiquitano, and the Congo Basin, respectively, under a medium–high scenario (SSP370) by 2100. Climate action can limit the added risk, with frequency increases held to below 15 % in all three regions under a strong mitigation scenario (SSP126). In Southern California, the future trajectory of extreme fire likelihood remains highly uncertain due to poorly constrained climate–vegetation–fire interactions influencing fuel moisture, though our models suggest that risk may decline in future. This annual report from the State of Wildfires project integrates and advances cutting-edge fire observations and modelling with regional expertise to track changing global wildfire hazard, guiding policy and practice towards improved preparedness, mitigation, adaptation, and societal benefit. Thirteen new datasets and model codebases presented in this work are available from the State of Wildfires Project’s Zenodo community, including updated annual statistics on wildfire extent (Jones et al., 2025; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15525674), outputs from modelling of fire causality using PoF model (Di Giuseppe, 2025; https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.8570224.v1) and codebase for the extreme event attribution/projections model, ConFLAME (Barbosa et al., 2025a, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16790787).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires globally, yet our understanding of these high-impact events remains uneven and shaped by media attention and regional research biases. The State of Wildfires project systematically tracks global and regional fire activity of each annual fire season, analyses the causes of prominent extreme wildfire events, and projects the likelihood of similar events occurring in future climate scenarios. This, its second annual report, covers the March 2024 to February 2025 fire season. During the 2024–2025 fire season, fire-related carbon (C) emissions totalled 2.2 Pg C, 9 % above average and the sixth highest on record since 2003, despite below-average global burned area (BA). Extreme fire seasons in South America’s rainforests, dry forests, and wetlands and in Canada’s boreal forests pushed up the global C emissions total. Fire C emissions were over 4 times above average in Bolivia, 3 times above average in Canada, and ∼ 50 % above average in Brazil and Venezuela. Wildfires in 2024–2025 caused 100 fatalities in Nepal, 34 in South Africa, and 31 in Los Angeles, with additional fatalities reported in Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, Portugal, and Türkiye. The Eaton and Palisades fires in Southern California caused 150 000 evacuations and USD 140 billion in damages. Communities in Brazil, Bolivia, Southern California, and northern India were exposed to fine particulate matter at concentrations 13–60 times WHO’s daily air quality standards. We evaluated the causes and predictability of four extreme wildfire episodes from the 2024–2025 fire season, including in Northeast Amazonia (January–March 2024), the Pantanal–Chiquitano border regions of Brazil and Bolivia (August–September 2024), Southern California (January 2025), and the Congo Basin (July–August 2024). Anomalous weather created conditions for these regional extremes, while fuel availability and human ignitions shaped spatial patterns and temporal fire dynamics. In the three tropical regions, prolonged drought was the dominant fire enabler, whereas in California, extreme heat, wind, and antecedent fuel build-up were compounding enablers. Our attribution analyses show that climate change made extreme fire weather in Northeast Amazonia 30–70 times more likely, increasing BA roughly 4-fold compared to a scenario without climate change. In the Pantanal–Chiquitano, fire weather was 4–5 times more likely, with 35-fold increases in BA. Meanwhile, our analyses suggest that BA was 25 times higher in Southern California due to climate change. The Congo Basin’s fire weather was 3–8 times more likely with climate change, with a 2.7-fold increase in BA. Socioeconomic changes since the pre-industrial period, including land-use change, also likely increased BA in Northeast Amazonia. Our models project that events on the scale of 2024–2025 will become up to 57 %, 34 %, and 50 % more frequent than in the modern era in Northeast Amazonia, the Pantanal–Chiquitano, and the Congo Basin, respectively, under a medium–high scenario (SSP370) by 2100. Climate action can limit the added risk, with frequency increases held to below 15 % in all three regions under a strong mitigation scenario (SSP126). In Southern California, the future trajectory of extreme fire likelihood remains highly uncertain due to poorly constrained climate–vegetation–fire interactions influencing fuel moisture, though our models suggest that risk may decline in future. This annual report from the State of Wildfires project integrates and advances cutting-edge fire observations and modelling with regional expertise to track changing global wildfire hazard, guiding policy and practice towards improved preparedness, mitigation, adaptation, and societal benefit. Thirteen new datasets and model codebases presented in this work are available from the State of Wildfires Project’s Zenodo community, including updated annual statistics on wildfire extent (Jones et al., 2025; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15525674), outputs from modelling of fire causality using PoF model (Di Giuseppe, 2025; https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.8570224.v1) and codebase for the extreme event attribution/projections model, ConFLAME (Barbosa et al., 2025a, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16790787).
