Tyndall Centre Publications

@article{38c966b14c364301bc90253d56d8520b,

title = {Smoking cessation supported by a smartphone app: A qualitative process evaluation of the Quit Sense feasibility RCT},

author = {Aimie Hope and Felix Naughton and Caitlin Notley},

doi = {10.1111/bjhp.70010},

issn = {1359-107X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-09-01},

journal = {British Journal of Health Psychology},

volume = {30},

number = {3},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Objectives: Quit Sense is a Just-in-Time Adaptive Intervention (JITAI) smartphone app that provides real-time automated and in-situ support to help people attempting to quit smoking manage cue-induced cravings. This process evaluation study explored views and experiences of feasibility trial participants and assessed: (1) intervention experiences, (2) how these might help explain causal path-ways towards behaviour change and (3) experiences of study participation. Design: Qualitative interviews nested within a two-arm feasibility randomized control trial. Methods: We purposefully sampled 20 participants (15intervention, 5 usual care) for semi-structured telephone interviews. Data were thematically analysed and was supplemented with a descriptive analysis of relevant experiences to hypothesize causal pathways to behaviour change. Results: Motivations for engaging in the trial and intervention included wanting greater accountability and to be part of something. Reasons for disengaging included success-fully quitting (app no longer needed), lapsing/relapsing and preferring other support types. Mechanisms which reportedly enabled successful quit attempts included the app's pre-quit preparation phase through insights into smoking cues, the delivery of lapse avoidance strategies and the supportive messages which helped to reinforce the goal of quitting. The trial was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic and provided examples of situations and contexts in which Quit Sense was used and felt to be (un)helpful for cessation. Conclusions: The Quit Sense app and trial were well received by participants. Participants reported that the preparation phase used for app training prior to their quit date was of particular value and not currently offered by other apps tried.},

note = {DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: The data underlying this article will be shared upon reasonable request to the corresponding author. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research Programme (17/92/31). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.},

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}

@article{6c42388165864762a3c181584f4a108d,

title = {Designing religiously informed and culturally acceptable tobacco cessation interventions for UK-based Muslims},

author = {Felix Naughton and Sylvia Barnes and Carole Gardener and Caitlin Notley and Rachna Begh and Nicola Lindson and Salman Waqar and Chloë Siegele-Brown and Aimie Hope},

doi = {10.1093/ntr/ntaf178},

issn = {1462-2203},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-08-28},

journal = {Nicotine and Tobacco Research},

publisher = {Oxford University Press},

abstract = {Introduction: Globally, tobacco use rates in Muslim communities, particularly among men, are significantly higher than in non-Muslim communities. In the United Kingdom, there are also low rates of help-seeking among British Muslims who use tobacco. Ramadan could be a “window of opportunity” to support tobacco use behavior change but we lack the voice of British Muslim communities on culturally tailored cessation support. We undertook a public and patient involvement and engagement (PPIE) project to gain views from representatives of these communities. Aims and Methods: Discussions with 15 PPIE representatives from, or who worked with, a variety of British Muslim communities identified through gatekeepers, social media, and snowballing approaches. Key points and views from PPIE discussions were summarized into broad themes. Results: Opportunities and challenges with culturally adapting tobacco cessation support to Ramadan were raised. “Light touch” positive religious messaging connected to tobacco cessation was recommended, and overemphasizing religion in messaging content to be avoided. Quitting during Ramadan was felt challenging due to fasting, precluding the use of nicotine replacement products or medication, and reinforcing tobacco use as part of fast-breaking routines. Instead, PPIE representatives suggested quitting in advance of Ramadan or promoting cessation afterward by capitalizing on tobacco reduction achieved during Ramadan. There was support for digital cessation approaches, but it was felt many in their communities would prefer traditional approaches, including interpersonal support and messaging through influential community members. Conclusions: “Light touch” culturally tailored tobacco cessation support before or after Ramadan was felt more promising than supporting cessation initiation during Ramadan. Implications: Members of British Muslim communities identified challenges with using Ramadan as a “window of opportunity” for tobacco behavior change and favored quitting ahead of time for Ramadan or capitalizing on tobacco behavior change achieved during Ramadan to promote a quit attempt afterward. Taking a “light touch” approach with religiously tailored messaging could help engage Muslim people who smoke in cessation support. However, avoiding any strong or negatively framed tobacco-related messages linked to religious phrases or imagery is important. This work reinforces the importance of engaging with communities when considering culturally adapting interventions to prevent misdirected adaptions.},

note = {Data Availability: As this was a public involvement project, data are not available. Funding: This project was funded by the Norfolk and Waveney Integrated Care Board, UK.},

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}

@article{81632e3cc49046548f8c7cd9bee8b337,

title = {A framework for classifying climate change questions used in public opinion surveys},

author = {John Kenny and Lucas Geese and Andrew Jordan and Irene Lorenzoni},

doi = {10.1080/09644016.2024.2429264},

issn = {0964-4016},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-08-22},

journal = {Environmental Politics},

volume = {34},

number = {6},

pages = {1114–1140},

publisher = {Routledge},

abstract = {Climate change is a significant site of political contestation, with public opinion frequently invoked to support claims for more (or less) action. Yet, ‘climate change public opinion’ is an umbrella term encompassing many different components. Empirical research has recently burgeoned, but an up-to-date and globally comprehensive guide to navigating the interconnected concepts currently measured is still lacking. In this review, we develop an original classification framework based on questions fielded in over 315 surveys across different parts of the world. We reflect on what aspects the questions elicit, relate them to patterns in the existing empirical literature, and identify and reflect on important implications for future research. Given the diversity of climate-relevant concepts that can be measured via survey questions, we recommend that researchers are clear about which component(s) of climate change public opinion they are eliciting, how they analyze these, and situate their research claims and policy recommendations accordingly.},

note = {Funding information: The work was supported by the European Research Council (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601) and the UK Economic and Social Research Council (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) ES/S012257/1).},

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pubstate = {published},

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@article{080c05639a474e7b80de710326ece3cc,

title = {Increasing global human exposure to wildland fires despite declining burned area},

author = {Seyd Teymoor Seydi and John T. Abatzoglou and Matthew W. Jones and Crystal A. Kolden and Gabriel Filippelli and Matthew D. Hurteau and Amir Aghakouchak and Charles H. Luce and Chiyuan Miao and Mojtaba Sadegh},

doi = {10.1126/science.adu6408},

issn = {0036-8075},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-08-21},

journal = {Science},

volume = {389},

number = {6762},

pages = {826–829},

publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},

abstract = {Although half of Earth’s population resides in the wildland-urban interface, human exposure to wildland fires remains unquantified. We show that the population directly exposed to wildland fires increased 40% globally from 2002 to 2021 despite a 26% decline in burned area. Increased exposure was mainly driven by enhanced colocation of wildland fires and human settlements, doubling the exposure per unit burned area. We show that population dynamics accounted for 25% of the 440 million human exposures to wildland fires. Although wildfire disasters in North America, Europe, and Oceania have garnered the most attention, 85% of global exposures occurred in Africa. The top 0.01% of fires by intensity accounted for 0.6 and 5% of global exposures and burned area, respectively, warranting enhanced efforts to increase fire resilience in disaster-prone regions.},

note = {Funding: This work was supported by the Joint Fire Science Program (grant L21AC10247 to M.S. and J.T.A.), the National Science Foundation (grants OAI-2019762 to J.T.A. and 2429021 to M.S.), Boise State University Healthy Idaho Initiative (M.S.), and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC grant NE/V01417X/1 to M.W.J.). Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US government.},

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pubstate = {published},

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@article{5a447e17d32e4fe2871d2b92c701d839,

title = {Ocean variability drives a millennial-scale shift in South Pacific hydroclimate},

author = {Mark Peaple and Daniel T. Skinner and Gordon N. Inglis and Manoj Joshi and Peter Langdon and Adrian J. Matthews and Timothy J. Osborn and David Sear},

doi = {10.1038/s43247-025-02676-5},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-08-19},

journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},

volume = {6},

publisher = {Nature Research},

abstract = {The South Pacific Convergence Zone is a band of intense austral summer rainfall in the tropical Pacific. Changes in the South Pacific Convergence Zone are linked to Pacific sea surface temperatures on decadal timescales, but its behaviour and impacts over longer timescales remain poorly understood due to limited proxy records and model uncertainties. We combine new plant wax hydroclimate records with existing proxy evidence and climate model simulations to investigate South Pacific Convergence Zone changes over the past 1500 years. Our findings indicate that between 1000 and 200 years ago, the eastern South Pacific Convergence Zone became wetter while the western part became drier. Model simulations suggest that these centennial-scale changes were driven by Pacific sea surface temperature gradients. This eastward shift coincides with Polynesian colonisation, implying hydroclimate shifts both ‘pushed’ migration eastward and ‘pulled’ successful eastern settlement.},

note = {Data availability: Proxy data generated as part of this study are available via the Open Science Framework. Reanalysis SST data are from the twentieth century Reanalysis product, version. CMIP6 model data used are available via the Earth System Grid Federation. Funding information: This study was supported by NERC grant NE/W005565/1. Field work was supported by National Geographic Expedition awards NGS-58688R-19 and NGS94645R-21 to D.S. In addition, G.N.I. was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship (DHFR1191178).},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{44bdfe45099749eab2f17f7304aed214,

title = {Beyond the runway – Quantifying the climate impact of international catering waste},

author = {Lois Pennington and Andrew Welfle and Ben Parkes and Alice Larkin},

issn = {0956-053X},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-08-12},

journal = {Waste Management},

volume = {203},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {International flights generate substantial volumes of waste that pose a unique environmental challenge, as strict biosecurity regulations require it to be disposed of through destructive methods across the world. However, the impact on the world’s climate of managing this waste remains unquantified and largely disregarded in aviation mitigation discussions. This study presents the first analysis of the contribution of cabin waste management to climate change, developing a novel methodology that combines passenger movement data with waste generation factors to quantify volumes, composition, and greenhouse gas emissions of national cabin waste. Applied to the United Kingdom as a case study, our analysis estimates that that approximately 89,000 tonnes of cabin waste entered the UK in 2022. This generated between 10,400 and 40,500 tonnes of CO2 equivalent due to the mandated disposal in landfill or incineration. This climate impact is driven by regulatory requirements that prevent more sustainable waste treatment methods, and by slow industry innovations. Our model demonstrates that allowing cabin waste to be treated like domestic waste could generate climate benefits of 33,900 tonnes CO2 equivalent, through material and energy recovery. With aviation movements projected to grow through to 2050, we identify specific actions that could enable more sustainable cabin waste treatment while maintaining high levels of biosecurity. This research provides a replicable framework for other nations to quantify their cabin waste climate impacts, and evidence-based pathways for urgent regulation and operational reform.},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{73ad904632cd4c7ab8e19f606c7e5f24,

title = {Indigenous contestations of carbon markets, carbon colonialism, and power dynamics in international climate negotiations},

author = {Zeynep Durmaz and Heike Schroeder},

doi = {10.3390/cli13080158},

issn = {2225-1154},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-08-01},

journal = {Climate},

volume = {13},

number = {8},

publisher = {MDPI AG},

abstract = {This paper examines the intersection of global climate governance, carbon markets, and Indigenous Peoples’ rights under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It critically analyses how Indigenous Peoples have contested the Article 6 market mechanisms of the Paris Agreement at the height of their negotiation during COP25 and COP26 by drawing attention to their role in perpetuating “carbon colonialism,” thereby revealing deeper power dynamics in global climate governance. Utilising a political ecology framework, this study explores these power dynamics at play during the climate negotiations, focusing on the instrumental, structural, and discursive forms of power that enable or limit Indigenous participation. Through a qualitative case study approach, the research reveals that while Indigenous Peoples have successfully used discursive strategies to challenge market-based solutions, their influence remains limited due to entrenched structural and instrumental power imbalances within the UNFCCC process. This study highlights the need for equitable policies that integrate human rights safeguards and prioritise Indigenous-led, non-market-based approaches to ecological restoration.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{955a5c3b3d68404b89e364d68e0e071b,

title = {Understanding farmer preferences to guide crop improvement: The case of grasspea in Ethiopia},

author = {Matthew Heaton and Borja Perez-Viana and Peter Emmrich and Belay Mulat and Arjan Verschoor},

doi = {10.1080/00220388.2025.2453519},

issn = {0022-0388},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-08-01},

journal = {Journal of Development Studies},

volume = {61},

number = {8},

pages = {1221–1241},

publisher = {Routledge},

abstract = {Building climate resilience in agriculture may usefully rely on crop improvement informed by social science studies of farmer preferences. Here, we present the case of grasspea in Ethiopia, a resilient and nutritious legume that can survive conditions where many other crops fail. Excessive consumption however carries the risk of an irreversible, crippling disease, this is possible in the future since the weather extremes that climate change is predicted to bring will create the conditions in which grasspea is one of the food sources that will likely see increased consumption. Crucially, farmers are not fully aware of this risk and may therefore not adopt the low-toxin grasspea that crop scientists have developed and that is about to enter the breeding pipeline. In this study we use focus group discussions, key informant interviews and choice experiments to investigate farmer preferences for grasspea improvement. We confirm that farmers do not place much value on reduced toxicity. Instead, they have strong preferences for other improvements, such as resistance to pests. This suggests that improvements that are needed in future but not yet preferred (i.e. reduced toxicity) should be bundled with improvements that farmers already prefer.},

note = {Funding information: This study was supported by the Global Challenges Research Fund. This work was made possible thanks to UKRI-BBSRC funding from the GCRF Agri-Tech Catalyst programme, grant number GCRF-SA-2020-JIC, and GCRF QR funds Rapid Response funds, grant number RR0620-7.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{b96414b179144228a306a2c26483b708,

title = {Nudging the adoption of improved crop varieties: Evidence from a large randomized controlled trial in Uganda},

author = {Julius Juma Okello and David Ryan Just and Arjan Verschoor and Sylvester Okoth Ojwang and Janet Mwende Mutiso and Chalmers Kyalo Mulwa and Chenyan Gong and Sam Namanda and Srinivasulu Rajendran and Reuben Tendo Ssali and Moses Okim and Hugo Campos},

issn = {1876-4517},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-24},

journal = {Food Security},

publisher = {Springer},

abstract = {To achieve agricultural transformation in developing countries in the face of challenges such as climate change, the use of improved crop varieties needs a jumpstart. Using a randomized controlled trial in Uganda, we test how nudge theory can be harnessed to deliver increased adoption of improved crop varieties. We find a 7% treatment effect, though the effect is not robust to alternative specifications. We find compelling evidence for heterogeneous treatment effects, with robust treatment effects among those who experienced a stronger emotional connection to the nudges that we deployed. A key concept to help explain this is nostalgia::farmers prone to nostalgia responded more strongly to the traditional farming imagery used to nudge the adoption of improved varieties},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{208afcf3e12b49d586c1971b359af1d3,

title = {Physical processes influencing the Asian climate due to black carbon emission over East Asia and South Asia},

author = {Feifei Luo and Bjørn H. Samset and Camilla W. Stjern and Manoj Joshi and Laura J. Wilcox and Robert J. Allen and Wei Hua and Shuanglin Li},

doi = {10.5194/acp-25-7647-2025},

issn = {1680-7375},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-21},

journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},

volume = {25},

number = {14},

pages = {7647–7667},

publisher = {Copernicus Publications},

abstract = {Many studies have shown that black carbon (BC) aerosols over Asia have significant impacts on regional climate but with large diversities in the intensity, spatial distribution, and physical mechanism of regional responses. In this study, we utilized a set of systematic regional aerosol perturbations (SyRAPs) using a reduced-complexity climate model, FORTE2 (Fast Ocean Rapid Troposphere Experiment version 2), to investigate responses of the Asian climate to BC aerosols over East Asia only, South Asia only, and both regions at once and to thoroughly examine related physical processes. Results show that regional BC aerosols lead to strong surface cooling, air temperature warming in the low-level troposphere, and drying over the perturbed areas, with seasonal differences in magnitude and spatial distribution. Atmospheric energy budget analysis suggests that reductions in local precipitation primarily depend on the substantial local atmospheric heating due to shortwave absorption by BC. Increases in dry-static-energy (DSE) flux divergence partly offset the reduced precipitation over North China in summer and most of China and India in the other three seasons. Decreases in DSE flux divergence lead to a stronger reduction in precipitation over South China and central India in summer. Changes in DSE flux divergence are mainly due to vertical motions driven by diabatic heating in the middle and lower troposphere. BC perturbations also exert non-local climate impacts through the changes in DSE flux divergence. This study provides a full chain of physical processes of the local climate responses to the Asian BC increases and gives some insights to better understand the uncertainties in model responses.},

note = {Data availability statement: The NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20th Century Reanalysis V3 (20CR) datasets are obtained from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.html (Compo et al., 2011). HadSLP is provided by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and can be downloaded at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadslp2/ (Allan and Ansell, 2006). The PDRMIP data can be accessed through the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) data server at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PDRMIP_2012-2021 (Andrews et al., 2021). Data of the SyRAP–FORTE2 experiments reported in this paper are available without restriction on reasonable request to Camilla W. Stjern at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research. Financial support: This research has been supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (grant no. 2019QZKK010203).},

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@article{46e4a14a25534f03aa567e58f6dafefc,

title = {Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally},

author = {John T. Abatzoglou and Crystal A. Kolden and Alison C. Cullen and Mojtaba Sadegh and Emily L. Williams and Marco Turco and Matthew W. Jones},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-025-61608-1},

issn = {2041-1723},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-10},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {16},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Regions across the globe have experienced devastating fire years in the past decade with far-reaching impacts. Here, we examine the role of antecedent and concurrent climate variability in enabling extreme regional fire years across global forests. These extreme years commonly coincided with extreme (1-in-15-year) fire weather indices (FWI) and featured a four and five-fold increase in the number of large fires and fire carbon emissions, respectively, compared with non-extreme years. Years with such extreme FWI metrics are 88-152% more likely across global forested lands under a contemporary (2011–2040) climate compared to a quasi-preindustrial (1851–1900) climate, with the most pronounced increased risk in temperate and Amazonian forests. Our results show that human-caused climate change is raising the odds of extreme climate-driven fire years across forested regions of the globe, necessitating proactive measures to mitigate risks and adapt to extreme fire years.},

note = {Data availability: Historical meteorological data used herein from ERA-5 are available from (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/), and climate projections used in the paper are available at https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/handle/20.500.11850/583391. Gridded burned area data is available from the MODIS global burned area product MCD64A1 (https://modis-fire.umd.edu/ba.html). The Global Fire Atlas and GFED4s fire carbon emissions are available at https://zenodo.org/records/11400062 and https://www.geo.vu.nl/~gwerf/GFED/GFED4/, respectively. Code availability: No specialized code for data analysis was developed for this study. Funding information: The work was supported through grants from the NSF Growing Convergence Research Program (OAI-2019762) to J.T.A. and A.C.C., Department of Interior’s Joint Fire Science Program (21-2-01-1 and 21-2-01-3) to J.T.A., M.S., and E.W. and UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/ V01417X/1 to M.W.J.},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{ee5cfded298341c6abbb55418a1ef2ba,

title = {Empowering European farmers: Insights from decolonial theory and indigenous people in Latin America},

author = {L. Lecuye and S. Calla and Brendan Coolsaet and I. Rodriguez and J. C. Young},

doi = {10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103651},

issn = {0743-0167},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Journal of Rural Studies},

volume = {117},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {The modernization of European agriculture and new societal concerns around global environmental change and food quality have led to forms of marginalization and misrecognition of European farmers. These include limited political agency in decision-making, economic dependency on industrial inputs, devaluation of traditional farming knowledge, restrictive regulatory frameworks, socio-technical lock-ins reinforcing productivist models, and increasing social stigmatization by the public. We draw parallels between the root causes of farmers' marginalization in Europe and the oppression of Indigenous people in the Global South. Their common struggle for recognition allows us to see how a decolonial approach could contribute to addressing the social malaise of farmers in Europe. There is much to learn from Indigenous people's experience in facing the coloniality matrix of power in their claim for more justice that could benefit farmers and the transformation toward a fairer agri-food system in Europe},

note = {Data availability statement: No data was used for the research described in the article. This work was supported by the French Investissements d’Avenir Program, Project ISITE-BFC (Contract ANR-15-IDEX-0003) and built on the collaboration of authors from the POWERBIODIV project, funded by Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB) of the Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB).},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{be80a244ada048e6a7001a8e79e4ded6,

title = {Abrupt ending of the Madden–Julian Oscillation by convectively coupled Kelvin wave precipitation leaves a swath of flooding across Indonesia},

author = {Natasha V. Senior and Adrian J. Matthews and Benjamin G. M. Webber and Jaka A. I. Paski and Danang E. Nuryanto and Richard W. Jones and Donaldi S. Permana and Auliya'a H. Febriyanti},

doi = {10.1002/qj.4997},

issn = {0035-9009},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},

volume = {151},

number = {771},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are eastward-propagating weather systems that organise convection locally and are linked to precipitation extremes across the Maritime Continent (MC). They are often embedded in active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) phases. The MJO also propagates eastwards, but influences convection in the MC over longer time-scales and larger areas. This article examines a case study during July 2021 of multiple CCKWs and westward-propagating inertio-gravity waves (WIGs) embedded within an active MJO. The final CCKW traversed the western MC, causing precipitation extremes across equatorial Indonesia and East Malaysia that led to numerous reports of flooding and landslides, with western Borneo the worst-affected region. The MJO event was terminated abruptly following the passage of this CCKW. Analysis of the total column water budget reveals that the precipitation rate exceeded the vertically integrated moisture-flux convergence provided by the CCKW, drying out the atmosphere and suppressing further convection. The performance of the UK Met Office prediction model was evaluated for this case study; parameterised convection configurations generally performed as well as or better than explicit convection models. This is possibly because they represented better the location and timing of the convective systems that developed because of interactions between CCKWs and WIGs. This research highlights how CCKWs should be viewed, not simply as convective systems that affect weather locally but, as having the potential to deliver larger-scale impacts over the entire equatorial MC, as part of a complex multiscale interaction. Such interactions can involve the MJO influencing CCKWs downscale by providing enhanced convection. Conversely, the suppressed phase of CCKWs can dampen the MJO convective signal and terminate MJO propagation. Whilst weather prediction models may forecast rainfall associated with individual equatorial modes accurately, capturing their combined effect remains a challenge.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: Data used in this study are publicly available. CCKW trajectories are available through github.com/adrianjmatthews/CCKW_database. The IMERG precipitation data were supplied by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration through their website at gpm.nasa.gov. ERA5 data were accessed from Copernicus at cds.climate.copernicus.eu (doi: 10.24381/cds/bd0915c6). Disaster event reports were supplied by ADInet and are available through their website at adinet.ahacentre.org. MetUM forecast data were supplied by Met Office, UK and are available at zenodo.org/records/12760373 (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.12760372). Funding information: This work and its contributors (NVS, AJM and BGMW) were supported by the Met Office Weather and Climate Science for Service Partnership (WCSSP) Southeast Asia as part of the Newton Fund (award P110707), and AJM was supported through the TerraMaris project, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (award NE/R016704/1).},

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@article{218076dc0145416b9a00cdd0ce22b04d,

title = {Recognising and protecting the national benefit of sustainable fisheries in the UK},

author = {Sarah Coulthard and Ainsley Hatt and Phoebe Lewis and Bryce D. Stewart and Michael Roach and Robert Clark and Sam Fanshawe and Carole Sandrine White and Julie Urquhart and Jerry Percy and Tim Gray and Emily Bulled and Joe Richards and Rachel Turner and Edward Baker and Louisa Evans and Tom Chaigneau and Tom Hooper and Jack Longsden and Jeremy Anbleyth-Evans},

doi = {10.1111/faf.12898},

issn = {1467-2960},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Fish and Fisheries},

volume = {26},

number = {4},

pages = {561–576},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Sustainable commercial fishing makes valuable contributions to coastal regions and broader national benefits. This paper offers three arguments in relation to what is required for the societal benefits of sustainable fisheries to be fully realised and considers each in the context of the UK but with global relevance. First, there is a need to raise the profile of the full range of benefits that are delivered through sustainable fisheries to coastal communities and the broader public. In the UK, the delivery of a ‘national benefit’ objective through fisheries is now enshrined in law by the Fisheries Act, 2020; we operationalise this through a new framing that distils eight ‘national benefits’ that all sustainable fisheries should deliver. Second, better acknowledgement of what society gains from sustainable fisheries must be paralleled with recognition of what society is simultaneously at risk of losing through the decline of the fishing fleet. We detail this decline in a new analysis of long-term UK data, which highlights that the decline is unequally felt, with some regions of the UK, and small-scale fishing sectors, experiencing loss more acutely. This reality leads us to argue a third point, that if society is to retain and truly harness the benefits that flow from sustainable fisheries, governing bodies must act quickly to ensure that fisheries are environmentally sustainable, diverse and inclusive, pursuing fisheries that ‘leave no one behind’.},

note = {Fata Availability Statement: All data used in the assessment of fishing fleet decline is publicly available online via the Seafish fleet survey database, as referenced in the article.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{0f4dea3a42c741a28e5050de1fbbc35d,

title = {Citizen voice and state response in the context of food system transformations},

author = {Nitya Rao and Emma Marzi and Isabel Baudish and Amar Laila and Costanza Conti and Christina Hicks},

doi = {10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102879},

issn = {0306-9192},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-07-01},

journal = {Food Policy},

volume = {134},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {This paper reviews the dynamic interplay between food activism and state responses, focusing on the diverse ways and strategies used by food movements to advocate for food systems transformation. More so, in a context of growing corporate control in food systems, food activism has been promoting just and sustainable alternatives. State reactions have been evolving, ranging from repression to policy change, to, in some cases, collaboration. Through a combination of summative content analysis of key themes across the literature and a thematic exploration of case studies, the paper highlights key trends in food activism and examines how governments have responded to them. By analysing the interactions between citizens and governments, this paper offers insights for both activists and policymakers seeking to build more inclusive and participatory food governance structures, in their efforts to transform food systems.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}