- Impacts of climate change
- Water resources
- Intense rainfall
I am working on the INTENSE project (https://research.ncl.ac.uk/intense/aboutintense/) which is exploring how rainfall extremes will respond to a warmer world, the effect of natural variability, and the implications for adaptation strategies. A global sub-daily observed precipitation dataset is being collated and the goal is to develop innovative downscaling approaches using information from high- and coarse-resolution climate models and process understanding from observations.
Previously, I worked on the European research project RAMSES (http://www.ramses-cities.eu/). My contribution to the project was the development of a high-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on flooding, droughts and heat-waves in all European cities. This hazard assessment was combined with a vulnerability and exposure assessment in order to have an indication of the risk that climate change poses to European cities.
For my PhD I assessed the “Future climate impacts on drought and water resources in international Iberian basins”. This encompassed: statistical analysis of observed historical rainfall for Iberia (Portugal and Spain); evaluation of future climate projections from CMIP5 climate models for Iberia and running the hydrological model SHETRAN to assess changes in flows.
- Guerreiro SB, Kilsby C, Fowler HJ. Assessing the threat of future megadrought in Iberia. International Journal of Climatology 2017, Epub ahead of print.
- Birkinshaw SJ, Guerreiro SB, Nicholson A, Liang Q, Quinn P, Zhang L, He B, Yin J, Fowler HJ. Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2017, 21(4), 1911-1927.
- Guerreiro SB, Birkinshaw S, Kilsby C, Fowler HJ, Lewis E. Dry getting drier − the future of transnational river basins in Iberia. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 2017, 12, 238-252.
- Guerreiro SB, Glenis V, Dawson RJ, Kilsby C. Pluvial flooding in European cities - A continental approach to urban flood modelling. Water 2017, 9(4), 296.
- Guerreiro SB, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ. Rainfall in Iberian transnational basins: a drier future for the Douro, Tagus and Guadiana? Climatic Change 2016, 135(3), 467-480.
- Guerreiro SB, Kilsby CG, Serinaldi F. Analysis of time variation of rainfall in transnational basins in Iberia: abrupt changes or trends? International Journal of Climatology 2014, 34(1), 114-133.