Dr. Natalia Jones is a senior research associate in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia. Her main area of interest is in how changes in the natural environment impact upon human health. Recent research has included statistical and geographical analysis into the impact of climate change on air and waterborne disease (e.g. pollen allergies, cholera). She also researches how pathogens transfer from the natural environment into humans and has recently undertaken research into the spatial distribution of smart local energy systems.
Natalia Jones
Senior Research Associate
Selected Publications
Other
Selected Publications
Kintz, E., Williams, N. J., Jones, N. R., Van Der Es, M., Lake, I. R., O’Brien, S. J. & Hunter, P. R. 2020. Regional differences in presence of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli virulence-associated genes in the environment in the North West and East Anglian regions of England. Letters in Applied Microbiology, 71, 179-186.
Jones, N. R, Bouzid, M., Few, R., Hunter, P. & Lake, I. 2020. Water, sanitation and hygiene risk factors for the transmission of cholera in a changing climate: Using a systematic review to develop a causal process diagram. Journal of Water and Health, 18, 145-158.
Jones, N. R., Agnew, M., Banic, I., Grossi, C. M., Colón-González, F. J., Plavec, D., Goodess, C. M., Epstein, M. M., Turkalj, M. & Lake, I. R. 2019. Ragweed pollen and allergic symptoms in children: Results from a three-year longitudinal study. Science of The Total Environment, 683, 240-248.
Fernandes, A. R., Lake, I. R., Dowding, A., Rose, M., Jones, N. R., Petch, R., Smith, F. & Panton, S. 2019. The potential of recycled materials used in agriculture to contaminate food through uptake by livestock. Science of the Total Environment, 667, 359-370.
Rushton, S. P., Sanderson, R. A., Diggle, P. J., Shirley, M. D. F., Blain, A. P., Lake, I., Maas, J. A., Reid, W. D. K., Hardstaff, J., Williams, N., Jones, N. R., Rigby, D., Strachan, N. J. C., Forbes, K. J., Hunter, P. R., Humphrey, T. J., O’Brien, S. J. 2019. Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden. Journal of Translational Medicine, 17, 34.
Agnew, M., Banic, I., Lake, I. R., Goodess, C., Grossi, C. M., Jones, N. R., Plavec, D., Epstein, M., and Turkalj, M. 2018. Modifiable Risk Factors for Common Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) Allergy and Disease in Children: A Case-Control Study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(7), 1339.
Jones, N. R., Millman, C., van der Es, M., Hukelova, M., Forbes, K. Glover, C., Haldenby, S., Hunter, P.R., Jackson, K., O’Brien, S. Rigby, D. Strachan, N. Williams, N.J and Lake, I.R. 2017. A novel sampling method for assessing human-pathogen interactions in the natural environment using boot socks and citizen scientists, with an application to the seasonality of Campylobacter. Applied and Environmental Microbiology, 83 (14), e00162-17.
Lake, I. R., Jones, N. R., Agnew, M., Goodess, C. M., Giorgi, F., Hamaoui-Laguel, L., Semenov, M. A., Solomon, F., Storkey, J., Vautard, R. and Epstein, M. M. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environmental Health Perspectives, 125, 385-391.
Other
2023
Brainard, Julii; Lake, Iain; Jones, Natalia; Morbey, Roger A.; Elliot, Alex J.; Hunter, Paul
Comparison of UK surveillance systems for monitoring COVID-19: Lessons for disease surveillance Conference
2023.
@conference{ed358c80340b4c71a088e7bcdaf03c72,
title = {Comparison of UK surveillance systems for monitoring COVID-19: Lessons for disease surveillance},
author = {Julii Brainard and Iain Lake and Natalia Jones and Roger A. Morbey and Alex J. Elliot and Paul Hunter},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-15},
abstract = {BackgroundDuring COVID-19 cases were tracked using multiple surveillance systems. Somesystems were completely novel and others incorporated multiple data streams toestimate case incidence and/or prevalence. How well these different surveillancesystems worked as epidemic indicators is unclear. This has implications for future disease surveillance and outbreak management. MethodsData from twelve surveillance systems used to monitor the COVID-19 in England were extracted (Jan20-Nov21). These were integrated as daily time-series and comparisons undertaken between the candidates and most timely (timely and comprehensive case count) and least-biased (and most comprehensive) COVID-19 epidemic indicators from household sampling. FindingsLaboratory tested case counts had high correlation (> 90%) with household survey incidence. Incidence and/or prevalence suggested by a self-reporting digital App, attendances to emergency departments and hospital admissions tended to highly correlate with most timely/least biased estimates (correlation generally rho > 0.70). Google search phrases, wastewater concentrations, NHS111 web visits / telephone calls and consultations with general practitioners did not highly correlate (correlation rho < 0.70). InterpretationA suite of monitoring systems is useful. The household-survey system was a most comprehensive and least-biased epidemic monitor but not very timely. Data from laboratory testing, self-reporting digital App and attendances to emergency departments were comparatively useful, fairly accurate and timely epidemic trackers.},
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pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {conference}
}
BackgroundDuring COVID-19 cases were tracked using multiple surveillance systems. Somesystems were completely novel and others incorporated multiple data streams toestimate case incidence and/or prevalence. How well these different surveillancesystems worked as epidemic indicators is unclear. This has implications for future disease surveillance and outbreak management. MethodsData from twelve surveillance systems used to monitor the COVID-19 in England were extracted (Jan20-Nov21). These were integrated as daily time-series and comparisons undertaken between the candidates and most timely (timely and comprehensive case count) and least-biased (and most comprehensive) COVID-19 epidemic indicators from household sampling. FindingsLaboratory tested case counts had high correlation (> 90%) with household survey incidence. Incidence and/or prevalence suggested by a self-reporting digital App, attendances to emergency departments and hospital admissions tended to highly correlate with most timely/least biased estimates (correlation generally rho > 0.70). Google search phrases, wastewater concentrations, NHS111 web visits / telephone calls and consultations with general practitioners did not highly correlate (correlation rho < 0.70). InterpretationA suite of monitoring systems is useful. The household-survey system was a most comprehensive and least-biased epidemic monitor but not very timely. Data from laboratory testing, self-reporting digital App and attendances to emergency departments were comparatively useful, fairly accurate and timely epidemic trackers.
Jones, Natalia; Few, Roger; Lake, Iain; Wooster, Kelly
Sustaining disaster aid in the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic Journal Article
In: Journal of Emergency Management, vol. 21, no. 7, pp. 85–96, 2023, ISSN: 1543-5865, (ACKNOWLEGMENTS: This study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response, a partnership among Public Health England, King’s College London, and the University of East Anglia. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the NIHR, Public Health England, or the Department of Health and Social Care).
@article{9516829378b140c5a1d9a4b1fca6de8b,
title = {Sustaining disaster aid in the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic},
author = {Natalia Jones and Roger Few and Iain Lake and Kelly Wooster},
doi = {10.5055/jem.0701},
issn = {1543-5865},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
journal = {Journal of Emergency Management},
volume = {21},
number = {7},
pages = {85–96},
publisher = {Weston Medical Publishing},
abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic had a global reach and impact, introducing stay at home orders, social distancing, facemask wearing, and closing national and international borders. Yet, the need for international disaster aid as a result of previous disasters and ongoing crises remained present. Interviews with staff from United Kingdom aid agencies and their partner organizations examined how development and humanitarian activities changed during the first six months of the pandemic. Seven key themes were highlighted. The need to recognize individual country contexts and experiences when dealing with a pandemic was emphasized, together with appropriate strategic decisions around guidance and supporting staff and the value of learning from previous experiences. Restrictions limited agencies' ability to monitor programs and ensure accountability effectively, but relationships between partners adjusted, with a move to a greater reliance on local partners and increased empowerment in these groups. Trust was vital to allow for the continuation of programs and services during the first months of the pandemic. Most programs continued but with significant adaptations. An enhanced use of communication technology was a key adaptation, though caveats remained around access. Concern around safeguarding and stigmatization of vulnerable groups was reported as an increasing issue in some contexts. The impact of COVID-19 restrictions on ongoing disaster aid was rapid and extensive, forcing aid agencies at different scales to work swiftly to try to ensure as little disruption as possible, and generating important lessons for both the ongoing and future crises.},
note = {ACKNOWLEGMENTS: This study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response, a partnership among Public Health England, King’s College London, and the University of East Anglia. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the NIHR, Public Health England, or the Department of Health and Social Care},
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pubstate = {published},
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}
The COVID-19 pandemic had a global reach and impact, introducing stay at home orders, social distancing, facemask wearing, and closing national and international borders. Yet, the need for international disaster aid as a result of previous disasters and ongoing crises remained present. Interviews with staff from United Kingdom aid agencies and their partner organizations examined how development and humanitarian activities changed during the first six months of the pandemic. Seven key themes were highlighted. The need to recognize individual country contexts and experiences when dealing with a pandemic was emphasized, together with appropriate strategic decisions around guidance and supporting staff and the value of learning from previous experiences. Restrictions limited agencies’ ability to monitor programs and ensure accountability effectively, but relationships between partners adjusted, with a move to a greater reliance on local partners and increased empowerment in these groups. Trust was vital to allow for the continuation of programs and services during the first months of the pandemic. Most programs continued but with significant adaptations. An enhanced use of communication technology was a key adaptation, though caveats remained around access. Concern around safeguarding and stigmatization of vulnerable groups was reported as an increasing issue in some contexts. The impact of COVID-19 restrictions on ongoing disaster aid was rapid and extensive, forcing aid agencies at different scales to work swiftly to try to ensure as little disruption as possible, and generating important lessons for both the ongoing and future crises.
2022
Hooper, Lee; Esio-Bassey, Chizoba; Brainard, Julii; Fynn, Judith; Jennings, Amy; Jones, Natalia; Tailor, Bhavesh V.; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Coe, Calvin; Esgunoglu, Latife; Fallon, Ciara; Gyamfi, Ernestina; Hill, Claire; Wilsher, Stephanie Howard; Narayanan, Nithin; Oladosu, Titilopemi; Parkinson, Ellice; Prentice, Emma; Qurashi, Meysoon; Read, Luke; Getley, Harriet; Song, Fujian; Welch, Ailsa A.; Aggett, Peter; Lietz, Georg
Evidence to underpin vitamin A requirements and upper limits in children aged 0 to 48 months: a scoping review Journal Article
In: Nutrients, vol. 14, no. 3, 2022, ISSN: 2072-6643, (Funding: This scoping review was funded by the World Health Organization, grant number 2021/1102552-0.).
@article{a109be2fc85f436f99a97f71dc0b5c16,
title = {Evidence to underpin vitamin A requirements and upper limits in children aged 0 to 48 months: a scoping review},
author = {Lee Hooper and Chizoba Esio-Bassey and Julii Brainard and Judith Fynn and Amy Jennings and Natalia Jones and Bhavesh V. Tailor and Asmaa Abdelhamid and Calvin Coe and Latife Esgunoglu and Ciara Fallon and Ernestina Gyamfi and Claire Hill and Stephanie Howard Wilsher and Nithin Narayanan and Titilopemi Oladosu and Ellice Parkinson and Emma Prentice and Meysoon Qurashi and Luke Read and Harriet Getley and Fujian Song and Ailsa A. Welch and Peter Aggett and Georg Lietz},
doi = {10.3390/nu14030407},
issn = {2072-6643},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-02-01},
journal = {Nutrients},
volume = {14},
number = {3},
publisher = {MDPI AG},
abstract = {Vitamin A deficiency is a major health risk for infants and children in low-and middle-income countries. This scoping review identified, quantified, and mapped research for use in updating nutrient requirements and upper limits for vitamin A in children aged 0 to 48 months, using health-based or modelling-based approaches. Structured searches were run on Medline, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central, from inception to 19 March 2021. Titles and abstracts were assessed independently in duplicate, as were 20% of full texts. Included studies were tabulated by question, methodology and date, with the most relevant data extracted and assessed for risk of bias. We found that the most recent health-based systematic reviews and trials assessed the effects of supplementation, though some addressed the effects of staple food fortification, complementary foods, biofortified maize or cassava, and fortified drinks, on health outcomes. Recent isotopic tracer studies and modelling approaches may help quantify the effects of bio-fortification, fortification, and food-based approaches for increasing vitamin A depots. A systematic review and several trials identified adverse events associated with higher vitamin A intakes, which should be useful for setting upper limits. We have generated and provide a database of relevant research. Full systematic reviews, based on this scoping review, are needed to answer specific questions to set vitamin A requirements and upper limits.},
note = {Funding: This scoping review was funded by the World Health Organization, grant number 2021/1102552-0.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Vitamin A deficiency is a major health risk for infants and children in low-and middle-income countries. This scoping review identified, quantified, and mapped research for use in updating nutrient requirements and upper limits for vitamin A in children aged 0 to 48 months, using health-based or modelling-based approaches. Structured searches were run on Medline, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central, from inception to 19 March 2021. Titles and abstracts were assessed independently in duplicate, as were 20% of full texts. Included studies were tabulated by question, methodology and date, with the most relevant data extracted and assessed for risk of bias. We found that the most recent health-based systematic reviews and trials assessed the effects of supplementation, though some addressed the effects of staple food fortification, complementary foods, biofortified maize or cassava, and fortified drinks, on health outcomes. Recent isotopic tracer studies and modelling approaches may help quantify the effects of bio-fortification, fortification, and food-based approaches for increasing vitamin A depots. A systematic review and several trials identified adverse events associated with higher vitamin A intakes, which should be useful for setting upper limits. We have generated and provide a database of relevant research. Full systematic reviews, based on this scoping review, are needed to answer specific questions to set vitamin A requirements and upper limits.
2020
Kintz, Erica; Williams, Nicola J; Jones, Natalia; Es, Mike; Lake, Iain R; O’Brien, Sarah J; Hunter, Paul R
In: Letters in Applied Microbiology, vol. 71, no. 2, pp. 179–186, 2020, ISSN: 0266-8254, (This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.).
@article{3702441dad6f4b5984cf2578a05d90aa,
title = {Regional differences in presence of shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli virulence-associated genes in the environment in the North West and East Anglian regions of England},
author = {Erica Kintz and Nicola J Williams and Natalia Jones and Mike Es and Iain R Lake and Sarah J O'Brien and Paul R Hunter},
doi = {10.1111/lam.13303},
issn = {0266-8254},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-08-01},
journal = {Letters in Applied Microbiology},
volume = {71},
number = {2},
pages = {179–186},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli is carried in the intestine of ruminant animals, and outbreaks have occurred after contact with ruminant animals or their environment. The presence of STEC virulence genes in the environment was investigated along recreational walking paths in the North West and East Anglia regions of England. In all, 720 boot sock samples from walkers’ shoes were collected between April 2013 and July 2014. Multiplex PCR was used to detect E. coli based on the amplification of the uidA gene and investigate STEC-associated virulence genes eaeA, stx1 and stx2. The eaeA virulence gene was detected in 45·5% of the samples, where stx1 and/or stx2 was detected in 12·4% of samples. There was a difference between the two regions sampled, with the North West exhibiting a higher proportion of positive boot socks for stx compared to East Anglia. In univariate analysis, ground conditions, river flow and temperature were associated with positive boot socks. The detection of stx genes in the soil samples suggests that STEC is present in the English countryside and individuals may be at risk for infection after outdoor activities even if there is no direct contact with animals. Significance and Impact of the Study: Several outbreaks within the UK have highlighted the danger of contracting Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli from contact with areas recently vacated by livestock. This is more likely to occur for STEC infections compared to other zoonotic bacteria given the low infectious dose required. While studies have determined the prevalence of STEC within farms and petting zoos, determining the risk to individuals enjoying recreational outdoor activities that occur near where livestock may be present is less researched. This study describes the prevalence with which stx genes, indicative of STEC bacteria, were found in the environment in the English countryside.},
note = {This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli is carried in the intestine of ruminant animals, and outbreaks have occurred after contact with ruminant animals or their environment. The presence of STEC virulence genes in the environment was investigated along recreational walking paths in the North West and East Anglia regions of England. In all, 720 boot sock samples from walkers’ shoes were collected between April 2013 and July 2014. Multiplex PCR was used to detect E. coli based on the amplification of the uidA gene and investigate STEC-associated virulence genes eaeA, stx1 and stx2. The eaeA virulence gene was detected in 45·5% of the samples, where stx1 and/or stx2 was detected in 12·4% of samples. There was a difference between the two regions sampled, with the North West exhibiting a higher proportion of positive boot socks for stx compared to East Anglia. In univariate analysis, ground conditions, river flow and temperature were associated with positive boot socks. The detection of stx genes in the soil samples suggests that STEC is present in the English countryside and individuals may be at risk for infection after outdoor activities even if there is no direct contact with animals. Significance and Impact of the Study: Several outbreaks within the UK have highlighted the danger of contracting Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli from contact with areas recently vacated by livestock. This is more likely to occur for STEC infections compared to other zoonotic bacteria given the low infectious dose required. While studies have determined the prevalence of STEC within farms and petting zoos, determining the risk to individuals enjoying recreational outdoor activities that occur near where livestock may be present is less researched. This study describes the prevalence with which stx genes, indicative of STEC bacteria, were found in the environment in the English countryside.
Jones, Natalia; Bouzid, Maha; Few, Roger; Hunter, Paul; Lake, Iain
In: Journal of Water and Health, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 145–158, 2020, ISSN: 1477-8920.
@article{e6ffcd4477d94802a199cb591d3bd8ef,
title = {Water, sanitation and hygiene risk factors for the transmission of cholera in a changing climate: using a systematic review to develop a causal process diagram},
author = {Natalia Jones and Maha Bouzid and Roger Few and Paul Hunter and Iain Lake},
doi = {10.2166/wh.2020.088},
issn = {1477-8920},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-04-01},
journal = {Journal of Water and Health},
volume = {18},
number = {2},
pages = {145–158},
publisher = {IWA Publishing},
abstract = {Cholera is a severe diarrhoeal disease affecting vulnerable communities. A long-term solution to cholera transmission is improved access to and uptake of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). Climate change threatens WASH. A systematic review and meta-analysis determined five overarching WASH factors incorporating 17 specific WASH factors associated with cholera transmission, focussing upon community cases. Eight WASH factors showed lower odds and six showed higher odds for cholera transmission. These results were combined with findings in the climate change and WASH literature, to propose a health impact pathway illustrating potential routes through which climate change dynamics (e.g. drought, flooding) impact on WASH and cholera transmission. A causal process diagram visualising links between climate change dynamics, WASH factors, and cholera transmission was developed. Climate change dynamics can potentially affect multiple WASH factors (e.g. drought-induced reductions in handwashing and rainwater use). Multiple climate change dynamics can influence WASH factors (e.g. flooding and sea-level rise affect piped water usage). The influence of climate change dynamics on WASH factors can be negative or positive for cholera transmission (e.g. drought could increase pathogen desiccation but reduce rainwater harvesting). Identifying risk pathways helps policymakers focus on cholera risk mitigation, now and in the future.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Cholera is a severe diarrhoeal disease affecting vulnerable communities. A long-term solution to cholera transmission is improved access to and uptake of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). Climate change threatens WASH. A systematic review and meta-analysis determined five overarching WASH factors incorporating 17 specific WASH factors associated with cholera transmission, focussing upon community cases. Eight WASH factors showed lower odds and six showed higher odds for cholera transmission. These results were combined with findings in the climate change and WASH literature, to propose a health impact pathway illustrating potential routes through which climate change dynamics (e.g. drought, flooding) impact on WASH and cholera transmission. A causal process diagram visualising links between climate change dynamics, WASH factors, and cholera transmission was developed. Climate change dynamics can potentially affect multiple WASH factors (e.g. drought-induced reductions in handwashing and rainwater use). Multiple climate change dynamics can influence WASH factors (e.g. flooding and sea-level rise affect piped water usage). The influence of climate change dynamics on WASH factors can be negative or positive for cholera transmission (e.g. drought could increase pathogen desiccation but reduce rainwater harvesting). Identifying risk pathways helps policymakers focus on cholera risk mitigation, now and in the future.
2019
Fernandes, Alwyn; Lake, Iain; Dowding, Alan; Rose, Martin; Jones, Natalia; Petch, R.; Smith, Frankie; Panton, Sean
The potential of recycled materials used in agriculture to contaminate food through uptake by livestock Journal Article
In: Science of the Total Environment, vol. 667, pp. 359–370, 2019, ISSN: 0048-9697.
@article{56baf6190b724ec5870b9debbd7ced7f,
title = {The potential of recycled materials used in agriculture to contaminate food through uptake by livestock},
author = {Alwyn Fernandes and Iain Lake and Alan Dowding and Martin Rose and Natalia Jones and R. Petch and Frankie Smith and Sean Panton},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.211},
issn = {0048-9697},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-06-01},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
volume = {667},
pages = {359–370},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {The potential for contaminant uptake from recycled materials used in livestock farming, to animal tissues and organs, was investigated in three practical modular studies involving broiler chickens, laying chickens and pigs. Six types of commercially available recycled materials were used either as bedding material for chickens or as fertilizer for cropland that later housed outdoor reared pigs. The contaminants studied included regulated contaminants e.g. polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs, dioxins) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), but related contaminants such as polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs), hexabrominated cyclododecane (HBCDD), polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs), polybrominated dioxins (PBDD/Fs) and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were also investigated. Contaminant occurrence in the recycled materials was verified prior to the studies and the relationship to tissue and egg concentrations in market ready animals was investigated using a weight of evidence approach. Contaminant uptake to animal tissues and eggs was observed in all the studies but the extent varied depending on the species and the recycled material. PCBs, PBDEs, PCDD/Fs, PCNs and PFAS showed the highest potential to transfer, with laying chickens showing the most pronounced effects. PBDD/Fs showed low concentrations in the recycled materials, making it difficult to evaluate potential transfer. Higher resulting occurrence levels in laying chickens relative to broilers suggests that period of contact with the materials may influence the extent of uptake in chickens. Bio-transfer factors (BTFs) estimated for PCDD/F and PCBs showed a greater magnitude for chicken muscle tissue relative to pigs with the highest values observed for PCBs in laying chickens. There were no significant differences between BTFs for the different chicken tissues which contrasted with the high BTF values for pigs liver relative to muscle. The study raises further questions which require investigation such as the effects of repeated or yearly application of recycled materials as fertilizers, and the batch homogeneity/consistency of available recycled materials.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The potential for contaminant uptake from recycled materials used in livestock farming, to animal tissues and organs, was investigated in three practical modular studies involving broiler chickens, laying chickens and pigs. Six types of commercially available recycled materials were used either as bedding material for chickens or as fertilizer for cropland that later housed outdoor reared pigs. The contaminants studied included regulated contaminants e.g. polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs, dioxins) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), but related contaminants such as polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs), hexabrominated cyclododecane (HBCDD), polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs), polybrominated dioxins (PBDD/Fs) and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were also investigated. Contaminant occurrence in the recycled materials was verified prior to the studies and the relationship to tissue and egg concentrations in market ready animals was investigated using a weight of evidence approach. Contaminant uptake to animal tissues and eggs was observed in all the studies but the extent varied depending on the species and the recycled material. PCBs, PBDEs, PCDD/Fs, PCNs and PFAS showed the highest potential to transfer, with laying chickens showing the most pronounced effects. PBDD/Fs showed low concentrations in the recycled materials, making it difficult to evaluate potential transfer. Higher resulting occurrence levels in laying chickens relative to broilers suggests that period of contact with the materials may influence the extent of uptake in chickens. Bio-transfer factors (BTFs) estimated for PCDD/F and PCBs showed a greater magnitude for chicken muscle tissue relative to pigs with the highest values observed for PCBs in laying chickens. There were no significant differences between BTFs for the different chicken tissues which contrasted with the high BTF values for pigs liver relative to muscle. The study raises further questions which require investigation such as the effects of repeated or yearly application of recycled materials as fertilizers, and the batch homogeneity/consistency of available recycled materials.
Rushton, Stephen; Sanderson, Roy; Diggle, Peter John; Shirley, Mark; Blain, Alasdair; Lake, Iain; Maas, James; Reid, William; Hardstaff, Jo; Williams, Nicola; Jones, Natalia; Rigby, Daniel; Strachan, Norval J. C.; Forbes, Ken; Hunter, Paul; Humphrey, Thomas J.; O’Brien, Sarah
Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden Journal Article
In: Journal of Translational Medicine, vol. 17, 2019, ISSN: 1479-5876.
@article{50e0d053e49448f7bc2f134e166aac15,
title = {Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden},
author = {Stephen Rushton and Roy Sanderson and Peter John Diggle and Mark Shirley and Alasdair Blain and Iain Lake and James Maas and William Reid and Jo Hardstaff and Nicola Williams and Natalia Jones and Daniel Rigby and Norval J. C. Strachan and Ken Forbes and Paul Hunter and Thomas J. Humphrey and Sarah O'Brien},
doi = {10.1186/s12967-019-1781-y},
issn = {1479-5876},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-21},
journal = {Journal of Translational Medicine},
volume = {17},
publisher = {BioMed Central},
abstract = {Background: With over 800 million cases globally, campylobacteriosis is a major cause of food borne disease. In temperate climates incidence is highly seasonal but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood, making human disease control difficult. We hypothesised that observed disease patterns reflect complex interactions between weather, patterns of human risk behaviour, immune status and level of food contamination. Only by understanding these can we find effective interventions. Methods: We analysed trends in human Campylobacter cases in NE England from 2004-2009, investigating the associations between different risk factors and disease using time-series models. We then developed an individual-based (IB) model of risk behaviour, human immunological responses to infection and environmental contamination driven by weather and land use. We parameterised the IB model for NE England and compared outputs to observed numbers of reported cases each month in the population in 2004-2009. Finally, we used it to investigate different community level disease reduction strategies.Results: Risk behaviours like countryside visits (t=3.665, P<0.001 and t= -2.18},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Background: With over 800 million cases globally, campylobacteriosis is a major cause of food borne disease. In temperate climates incidence is highly seasonal but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood, making human disease control difficult. We hypothesised that observed disease patterns reflect complex interactions between weather, patterns of human risk behaviour, immune status and level of food contamination. Only by understanding these can we find effective interventions. Methods: We analysed trends in human Campylobacter cases in NE England from 2004-2009, investigating the associations between different risk factors and disease using time-series models. We then developed an individual-based (IB) model of risk behaviour, human immunological responses to infection and environmental contamination driven by weather and land use. We parameterised the IB model for NE England and compared outputs to observed numbers of reported cases each month in the population in 2004-2009. Finally, we used it to investigate different community level disease reduction strategies.Results: Risk behaviours like countryside visits (t=3.665, P<0.001 and t= -2.18
2017
Lake, Iain; Jones, Natalia; Agnew, Maureen; Goodess, Clare; Giorgi, Filippo; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Semenov, Mikhail; Solomin, Fabien; Storkey, Jonathan; Vautard, Robert; Epstein, Michelle
Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe Journal Article
In: Environmental Health Perspectives, vol. 125, pp. 385–391, 2017, ISSN: 0091-6765.
@article{17b50c93ca814c4d92a3076cecfab40e,
title = {Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe},
author = {Iain Lake and Natalia Jones and Maureen Agnew and Clare Goodess and Filippo Giorgi and Lynda Hamaoui-Laguel and Mikhail Semenov and Fabien Solomin and Jonathan Storkey and Robert Vautard and Michelle Epstein},
doi = {10.1289/EHP173},
issn = {0091-6765},
year = {2017},
date = {2017-03-01},
journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
volume = {125},
pages = {385–391},
publisher = {Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services},
abstract = {Background: Globally pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. Objectives: To produce quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. Methods: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed’s range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models,two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5), and three different plant invasion scenarios. Results: Our primary estimates indicate that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, while sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g. Hungary, the Balkans), the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g. Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may alsoincrease the severity of symptoms. Our model projections are driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%), but also are influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe have a large influence upon the results. Conclusions: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Background: Globally pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. Objectives: To produce quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. Methods: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed’s range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models,two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5), and three different plant invasion scenarios. Results: Our primary estimates indicate that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, while sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g. Hungary, the Balkans), the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g. Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may alsoincrease the severity of symptoms. Our model projections are driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%), but also are influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe have a large influence upon the results. Conclusions: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change.
2010
Ogilvie, David; Griffin, Simon; Jones, Andy; Mackett, Roger; Guell, Cornelia; Panter, Jenna; Jones, Natalia; Cohn, Simon; Yang, Lin; Chapman, Cheryl
Commuting and health in Cambridge: A study of a ‘natural experiment’ in the provision of new transport infrastructure Journal Article
In: BMC Public Health, vol. 10, 2010, ISSN: 1471-2458.
@article{2c7ecdc434b846fb971ded61158b1384,
title = {Commuting and health in Cambridge: A study of a 'natural experiment' in the provision of new transport infrastructure},
author = {David Ogilvie and Simon Griffin and Andy Jones and Roger Mackett and Cornelia Guell and Jenna Panter and Natalia Jones and Simon Cohn and Lin Yang and Cheryl Chapman},
doi = {10.1186/1471-2458-10-703},
issn = {1471-2458},
year = {2010},
date = {2010-11-16},
journal = {BMC Public Health},
volume = {10},
publisher = {BioMed Central},
abstract = {Background. Modifying transport infrastructure to support active travel (walking and cycling) could help to increase population levels of physical activity. However, there is limited evidence for the effects of interventions in this field, and to the best of our knowledge no study has convincingly demonstrated an increase in physical activity directly attributable to this type of intervention. We have therefore taken the opportunity presented by a 'natural experiment' in Cambridgeshire, UK to establish a quasi-experimental study of the effects of a major transport infrastructural intervention on travel behaviour, physical activity and related wider health impacts. Design and methods. The Commuting and Health in Cambridge study comprises three main elements: a cohort study of adults who travel to work in Cambridge, using repeated postal questionnaires and basic objective measurement of physical activity using accelerometers; in-depth quantitative studies of physical activity energy expenditure, travel and movement patterns and estimated carbon emissions using household travel diaries, combined heart rate and movement sensors and global positioning system (GPS) receivers; and a longitudinal qualitative interview study to elucidate participants' attitudes, experiences and practices and to understand how environmental and social factors interact to influence travel behaviour, for whom and in what circumstances. The impacts of a specific intervention - the opening of the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway - and of other changes in the physical environment will be examined using a controlled quasi-experimental design within the overall cohort dataset. Discussion. Addressing the unresolved research and policy questions in this area is not straightforward. The challenges include those of effectively combining different disciplinary perspectives on the research problems, developing common methodological ground in measurement and evaluation, implementing robust quantitative measurement of travel and physical activity behaviour in an unpredictable 'natural experiment' setting, defining exposure to the intervention, defining controls, and conceptualising an appropriate longitudinal analytical strategy.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Background. Modifying transport infrastructure to support active travel (walking and cycling) could help to increase population levels of physical activity. However, there is limited evidence for the effects of interventions in this field, and to the best of our knowledge no study has convincingly demonstrated an increase in physical activity directly attributable to this type of intervention. We have therefore taken the opportunity presented by a ‘natural experiment’ in Cambridgeshire, UK to establish a quasi-experimental study of the effects of a major transport infrastructural intervention on travel behaviour, physical activity and related wider health impacts. Design and methods. The Commuting and Health in Cambridge study comprises three main elements: a cohort study of adults who travel to work in Cambridge, using repeated postal questionnaires and basic objective measurement of physical activity using accelerometers; in-depth quantitative studies of physical activity energy expenditure, travel and movement patterns and estimated carbon emissions using household travel diaries, combined heart rate and movement sensors and global positioning system (GPS) receivers; and a longitudinal qualitative interview study to elucidate participants’ attitudes, experiences and practices and to understand how environmental and social factors interact to influence travel behaviour, for whom and in what circumstances. The impacts of a specific intervention – the opening of the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway – and of other changes in the physical environment will be examined using a controlled quasi-experimental design within the overall cohort dataset. Discussion. Addressing the unresolved research and policy questions in this area is not straightforward. The challenges include those of effectively combining different disciplinary perspectives on the research problems, developing common methodological ground in measurement and evaluation, implementing robust quantitative measurement of travel and physical activity behaviour in an unpredictable ‘natural experiment’ setting, defining exposure to the intervention, defining controls, and conceptualising an appropriate longitudinal analytical strategy.
2006
Bachmann, Max; Reading, R.; Husbands, C.; O’Brien, M.; Thoburn, J.; Shemilt, I.; Watson, J; Jones, Natalia; Haynes, R.; Mugford, M.; Team, The NECT
What are children’s trusts? Early findings from a national survey Journal Article
In: Child: Care, Health and Development, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 137–146, 2006, ISSN: 0305-1862.
@article{73ef192d513347a499b223d7f76f2ee4,
title = {What are children's trusts? Early findings from a national survey},
author = {Max Bachmann and R. Reading and C. Husbands and M. O'Brien and J. Thoburn and I. Shemilt and J Watson and Natalia Jones and R. Haynes and M. Mugford and The NECT Team},
doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2214.2006.00573.x},
issn = {0305-1862},
year = {2006},
date = {2006-03-01},
journal = {Child: Care, Health and Development},
volume = {32},
number = {2},
pages = {137–146},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Background: The Children Act 2004 and National Service Framework for Children, Young People and Maternity Services require fuller integration of health, education and social services for children and young people in England and Wales. The UK government supported the establishment of 35 experimental children's trust pathfinders (henceforth called children's trusts) in England. Methods: A questionnaire was completed by managers in all 35 children's trusts a year after their start. Children's trust documents were examined. Census and performance indicators were compared between children's trust areas and the rest of England. Results Children's trust areas had demographic and social characteristics typical of England. All children's trusts aimed to improve health, education and social services by greater managerial and service integration. All had boards representing the three sectors; other agencies’ representation varied. Two-thirds of children's trusts had moved towards pooling budgets in at least some service areas. At this stage in their development, some had prioritized joint procurement or provision of services, with formal managerial structures, while others favoured an informal strategic planning, co-ordination and information sharing approach. The commonest priorities for services development were for disabled children (16 children's trusts), followed by early intervention (11) and mental health services (8). Conclusions: The diverse strategies adopted by these 35 children's trusts during their first year is due to their own characteristics and to the way government strategy developed during this period. Whilst some prioritized organizational development, joint financing and commissioning, and information sharing, others laid more emphasis on mechanisms for bringing front-line professionals closer together. Their experiences are of value to others deciding how best to integrate children's services.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Background: The Children Act 2004 and National Service Framework for Children, Young People and Maternity Services require fuller integration of health, education and social services for children and young people in England and Wales. The UK government supported the establishment of 35 experimental children’s trust pathfinders (henceforth called children’s trusts) in England. Methods: A questionnaire was completed by managers in all 35 children’s trusts a year after their start. Children’s trust documents were examined. Census and performance indicators were compared between children’s trust areas and the rest of England. Results Children’s trust areas had demographic and social characteristics typical of England. All children’s trusts aimed to improve health, education and social services by greater managerial and service integration. All had boards representing the three sectors; other agencies’ representation varied. Two-thirds of children’s trusts had moved towards pooling budgets in at least some service areas. At this stage in their development, some had prioritized joint procurement or provision of services, with formal managerial structures, while others favoured an informal strategic planning, co-ordination and information sharing approach. The commonest priorities for services development were for disabled children (16 children’s trusts), followed by early intervention (11) and mental health services (8). Conclusions: The diverse strategies adopted by these 35 children’s trusts during their first year is due to their own characteristics and to the way government strategy developed during this period. Whilst some prioritized organizational development, joint financing and commissioning, and information sharing, others laid more emphasis on mechanisms for bringing front-line professionals closer together. Their experiences are of value to others deciding how best to integrate children’s services.
O’Brien, Margaret; Bachmann, Max O.; Husbands, Chris R.; Shreeve, Ann; Jones, Natalia; Watson, Jacqueline; Shemilt, Ian
Integrating children’s services to promote children’s welfare: early findings from the implementation of children’s trusts in England Journal Article
In: Child Abuse Review, vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 377–395, 2006, ISSN: 0952-9136.
@article{ac9e5ddb7cfd493dba285953c20d71c7,
title = {Integrating children's services to promote children's welfare: early findings from the implementation of children's trusts in England},
author = {Margaret O'Brien and Max O. Bachmann and Chris R. Husbands and Ann Shreeve and Natalia Jones and Jacqueline Watson and Ian Shemilt},
doi = {10.1002/car.963},
issn = {0952-9136},
year = {2006},
date = {2006-01-01},
journal = {Child Abuse Review},
volume = {15},
number = {6},
pages = {377–395},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {As part of the reform of English children's services, children's trust pathfinders were launched in 2003 by the British government to promote greater inter-agency co-operation between children's services and professionals. This paper reports on early findings from a multi-method, longitudinal national evaluation of the implementation and impact of all 35 children's trust pathfinders. Using data from a 2004 survey of 35 children's trusts managers and in-depth interviews with 107 professionals conducted in 2005, results show strong endorsement of an integrated children's service vision. However, arrangements for co-operation on governance and strategic developments were more advanced than for procedural or frontline professional practice. In this transitional period, professionals were negotiating a balance between targeted and universal service provision and, concurrently, establishing the scope of formal strategic partnership bodies (including local safeguarding children boards) with potentially overlapping remits.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
As part of the reform of English children’s services, children’s trust pathfinders were launched in 2003 by the British government to promote greater inter-agency co-operation between children’s services and professionals. This paper reports on early findings from a multi-method, longitudinal national evaluation of the implementation and impact of all 35 children’s trust pathfinders. Using data from a 2004 survey of 35 children’s trusts managers and in-depth interviews with 107 professionals conducted in 2005, results show strong endorsement of an integrated children’s service vision. However, arrangements for co-operation on governance and strategic developments were more advanced than for procedural or frontline professional practice. In this transitional period, professionals were negotiating a balance between targeted and universal service provision and, concurrently, establishing the scope of formal strategic partnership bodies (including local safeguarding children boards) with potentially overlapping remits.
