John specialises in the area of public opinion research, with a particular focus on environmental and climate change attitudes.
John Kenny
Visiting Fellow
Selected Publications
Other
Selected Publications
Kenny, John and Stephen D. Fisher (2025), ‘Europeans’ climate consciousness: increased yet more politicised’, Environmental Politics, https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2025.2597649
Kenny, John and Lucas Geese (2025), ‘Publics and UK parliamentarians underestimate the urgency of peaking global greenhouse gas emissions’, Communications Earth and Environment, 6, 747, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02655-w
Kenny, John (2024), ‘Disapproval of Climate Policy Dismantlement: A Comparative Analysis of International Public Opinion on Donald Trump’s Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Change Regime’, Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 25(3-4), https://doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2023.2262431
Kenny, John and Peter Egge Langsæther (2023), ‘Environmentalism as an independent dimension of political preferences’, European Journal of Political Research, 62(4), https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12549
Fisher, Stephen D., John Kenny, Wouter Poortinga, Gisela Böhm and Linda Steg (2022), ‘The politicisation of climate change attitudes in Europe’, Electoral Studies, 79, 102499, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102499
Kenny, John (2021), ‘Are environment versus economy trade-off questions more about environmental or economic attitudes?’, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp. 159-170 https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edaa003
Kenny, John (2020), ‘The role of political attention in moderating the association between political identities and anthropogenic climate change belief in Britain’, Political Studies, https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321720928261
Kenny, John (2020), ‘Economic conditions and support for the prioritisation of environmental protection during the Great Recession’, Environmental Politics, Vol 29, No. 6, pp. 937-958 https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2019.1680074
Kenny, John (2019), ‘Environmentalism undercover: The environmental dimension of public support for domestic water charges’, Electoral Studies, Vol. 62, 102088, pp. 1-11 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2019.102088
Kenny, John (2018), ‘The role of economic perceptions in influencing views on climate change: An experimental analysis with British respondents’, Climate Policy, Vol. 18, No. 5, pp. 581-592. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2017.1414026
Kenny, John (2018), ‘Environmental protection preferences under strain: An analysis of the impact of changing individual perceptions of economic and financial conditions on environmental public opinion during economic crisis’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp.105-124. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2017.1395884
Other
2026
Kenny, John
Book Review: Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion: A Guide for Decision-Makers By Clifford Young and Kathryn Ziemer. Journal Article
In: Italian Political Science Review / Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 2026, ISSN: 0048-8402.
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title = {Book Review: Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion: A Guide for Decision-Makers By Clifford Young and Kathryn Ziemer.},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1017/ipo.2025.10085},
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year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-12},
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publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
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2025
Kenny, John; Fisher, Stephen D.
Europeans’ climate consciousness: Increased yet more politicised Journal Article
In: Environmental Politics, 2025, ISSN: 0964-4016, (Data availability statement: The data analysed in this paper is accessible through the European Social Survey DataPortal: https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/data-portal).
@article{4971d2cd96534abf8507b4e29d401986,
title = {Europeans’ climate consciousness: Increased yet more politicised},
author = {John Kenny and Stephen D. Fisher},
doi = {10.1080/09644016.2025.2597649},
issn = {0964-4016},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-12-16},
journal = {Environmental Politics},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {As climate change became more important to voters and political parties in the late 2010s in Europe, this paper asks whether aspects of public opinion on the issue also became more politicised, in the sense of being more closely linked to either party-family vote choice or left–right identity. We consider change from Wave 8 (2016–17) to Wave 10 (2020–22) of the European Social Survey (ESS). Climate consciousness increased overall, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. Politicisation of climate change increased mostly in Western Europe, where climate consciousness increased more on the left, and for left-wing party voters, than on the right. The Populist-Right party family, as a group, was distinctive in the relative stability of climate consciousness among their voters. Our results show increased politicisation of climate change attitudes within Western European countries, but also convergence between polities of the East and West at higher levels of climate consciousness.},
note = {Data availability statement: The data analysed in this paper is accessible through the European Social Survey DataPortal: https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/data-portal},
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As climate change became more important to voters and political parties in the late 2010s in Europe, this paper asks whether aspects of public opinion on the issue also became more politicised, in the sense of being more closely linked to either party-family vote choice or left–right identity. We consider change from Wave 8 (2016–17) to Wave 10 (2020–22) of the European Social Survey (ESS). Climate consciousness increased overall, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. Politicisation of climate change increased mostly in Western Europe, where climate consciousness increased more on the left, and for left-wing party voters, than on the right. The Populist-Right party family, as a group, was distinctive in the relative stability of climate consciousness among their voters. Our results show increased politicisation of climate change attitudes within Western European countries, but also convergence between polities of the East and West at higher levels of climate consciousness.
Jennings, Will; Kenny, John; Roescu, Andra; Smedley, Stuart; Weldon, Kathleen; Enns, Peter K.
In: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 2025, ISSN: 1745-7289.
@article{1e7d54c2f8984a108fede39391d79ddc,
title = {Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the Gallup Poll in Britain, 1955–1991},
author = {Will Jennings and John Kenny and Andra Roescu and Stuart Smedley and Kathleen Weldon and Peter K. Enns},
doi = {10.1080/17457289.2025.2585102},
issn = {1745-7289},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-11-22},
journal = {Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {From the 1930s to early 2000s, the British affiliate and later subsidiary of the Gallup Organization conducted around three thousand surveys of public opinion in Great Britain. While the records of the headline results of some of these polls can be found in Gallup’s monthly reports and news reports from the time, most of the individual level survey data were previously believed to have been lost. This article details how we have been able to reconstruct much of this important historical record, converting almost 800 survey datasets from 1955 to 1991 found in the archives of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. It first offers a brief overview of how the data were converted from the original column-binary format and what it reveals about methodological practices of Gallup in Britain. We then develop weights to improve the representativeness of the data across the entire time period, using the data to offer a number of insights into long-term trends in British public opinion.},
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From the 1930s to early 2000s, the British affiliate and later subsidiary of the Gallup Organization conducted around three thousand surveys of public opinion in Great Britain. While the records of the headline results of some of these polls can be found in Gallup’s monthly reports and news reports from the time, most of the individual level survey data were previously believed to have been lost. This article details how we have been able to reconstruct much of this important historical record, converting almost 800 survey datasets from 1955 to 1991 found in the archives of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. It first offers a brief overview of how the data were converted from the original column-binary format and what it reveals about methodological practices of Gallup in Britain. We then develop weights to improve the representativeness of the data across the entire time period, using the data to offer a number of insights into long-term trends in British public opinion.
Kenny, John; Geese, Lucas
Publics and UK parliamentarians underestimate the urgency of peaking global greenhouse gas emissions Journal Article
In: Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 6, 2025, ISSN: 2662-4435, (Data availability: The data for the publics’ surveys have been uploaded to Code Ocean. The data underlying the MP survey is taken directly from crosstabulations provided to the authors by Savanta (https://savanta.com/), the data collector. Code availability: The code used for the publics’ survey has been uploaded to Code Ocean. The analyses were carried out using Stata 15.1. Funding information: The work was supported by the European Research Council (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601) and the UK Economic and Social Research Council (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) ES/S012257/1).).
@article{b0a893c02ac24ab5a0d2632ae6a6cce9,
title = {Publics and UK parliamentarians underestimate the urgency of peaking global greenhouse gas emissions},
author = {John Kenny and Lucas Geese},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-025-02655-w},
issn = {2662-4435},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-02},
journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
volume = {6},
publisher = {Nature Research},
abstract = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports treat politicians as recipients of information, but not as foci of research efforts. Moreover, academic research on politicians’ knowledge concentrates on belief in climate change’s anthropogenic cause. Little is known of how aware national parliamentarians are of key findings and policy recommendations from assessment reports. Here, we address this through a survey of 100 Members of Parliament in the United Kingdom on their knowledge of the well-publicised statement from the 6th assessment report of when global greenhouse emissions need to peak for a global temperature increase limit of 1.5 °C to be possible. Parliamentarians overwhelmingly overestimate the time period humanity has left to bend the temperature curve although partisan differences apply. Public surveys in Britain as well as Canada, Chile and Germany show similarly low knowledge, yet being younger, worried about climate change, and having lower levels of conspiracy belief mentality increase accuracy significantly.},
note = {Data availability: The data for the publics’ surveys have been uploaded to Code Ocean. The data underlying the MP survey is taken directly from crosstabulations provided to the authors by Savanta (https://savanta.com/), the data collector. Code availability: The code used for the publics’ survey has been uploaded to Code Ocean. The analyses were carried out using Stata 15.1. Funding information: The work was supported by the European Research Council (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601) and the UK Economic and Social Research Council (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) ES/S012257/1).},
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports treat politicians as recipients of information, but not as foci of research efforts. Moreover, academic research on politicians’ knowledge concentrates on belief in climate change’s anthropogenic cause. Little is known of how aware national parliamentarians are of key findings and policy recommendations from assessment reports. Here, we address this through a survey of 100 Members of Parliament in the United Kingdom on their knowledge of the well-publicised statement from the 6th assessment report of when global greenhouse emissions need to peak for a global temperature increase limit of 1.5 °C to be possible. Parliamentarians overwhelmingly overestimate the time period humanity has left to bend the temperature curve although partisan differences apply. Public surveys in Britain as well as Canada, Chile and Germany show similarly low knowledge, yet being younger, worried about climate change, and having lower levels of conspiracy belief mentality increase accuracy significantly.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Kenny, John; Leiter, Debra; Murr, Andreas Erwin; Ogili, Onyinye B.; Stegmaier, Mary; Tien, Charles
Election forecasting: Political economy models Journal Article
In: International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 41, no. 4, pp. 1655–1665, 2025, ISSN: 0169-2070.
@article{0128a46e7af54b12a1dd218717da8d66,
title = {Election forecasting: Political economy models},
author = {Michael S. Lewis-Beck and John Kenny and Debra Leiter and Andreas Erwin Murr and Onyinye B. Ogili and Mary Stegmaier and Charles Tien},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.02.006},
issn = {0169-2070},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-10-01},
journal = {International Journal of Forecasting},
volume = {41},
number = {4},
pages = {1655–1665},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely known approach; however, the lesser-known political economy models take a different scientific tack, relying on regression analysis and voting theory, particularly the force of “fundamentals.” We begin our discussion with two advanced industrial democracies, the US and UK. We then examine two less frequently forecasted cases, Mexico and Ghana, to highlight the potential for political-economic forecasting and the challenges faced. In evaluating the performance of political economy models, we argue for their accuracy but do not neglect lead time, parsimony, and transparency. Furthermore, we suggest how the political economic approach can be adapted to the changing landscape that democratic electorates face.},
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We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely known approach; however, the lesser-known political economy models take a different scientific tack, relying on regression analysis and voting theory, particularly the force of “fundamentals.” We begin our discussion with two advanced industrial democracies, the US and UK. We then examine two less frequently forecasted cases, Mexico and Ghana, to highlight the potential for political-economic forecasting and the challenges faced. In evaluating the performance of political economy models, we argue for their accuracy but do not neglect lead time, parsimony, and transparency. Furthermore, we suggest how the political economic approach can be adapted to the changing landscape that democratic electorates face.
Kenny, John; Geese, Lucas; Jordan, Andrew; Lorenzoni, Irene
A framework for classifying climate change questions used in public opinion surveys Journal Article
In: Environmental Politics, vol. 34, no. 6, pp. 1114–1140, 2025, ISSN: 0964-4016, (Funding information: The work was supported by the European Research Council (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601) and the UK Economic and Social Research Council (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) ES/S012257/1).).
@article{81632e3cc49046548f8c7cd9bee8b337,
title = {A framework for classifying climate change questions used in public opinion surveys},
author = {John Kenny and Lucas Geese and Andrew Jordan and Irene Lorenzoni},
doi = {10.1080/09644016.2024.2429264},
issn = {0964-4016},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-08-22},
journal = {Environmental Politics},
volume = {34},
number = {6},
pages = {1114–1140},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Climate change is a significant site of political contestation, with public opinion frequently invoked to support claims for more (or less) action. Yet, ‘climate change public opinion’ is an umbrella term encompassing many different components. Empirical research has recently burgeoned, but an up-to-date and globally comprehensive guide to navigating the interconnected concepts currently measured is still lacking. In this review, we develop an original classification framework based on questions fielded in over 315 surveys across different parts of the world. We reflect on what aspects the questions elicit, relate them to patterns in the existing empirical literature, and identify and reflect on important implications for future research. Given the diversity of climate-relevant concepts that can be measured via survey questions, we recommend that researchers are clear about which component(s) of climate change public opinion they are eliciting, how they analyze these, and situate their research claims and policy recommendations accordingly.},
note = {Funding information: The work was supported by the European Research Council (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601) and the UK Economic and Social Research Council (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) ES/S012257/1).},
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Climate change is a significant site of political contestation, with public opinion frequently invoked to support claims for more (or less) action. Yet, ‘climate change public opinion’ is an umbrella term encompassing many different components. Empirical research has recently burgeoned, but an up-to-date and globally comprehensive guide to navigating the interconnected concepts currently measured is still lacking. In this review, we develop an original classification framework based on questions fielded in over 315 surveys across different parts of the world. We reflect on what aspects the questions elicit, relate them to patterns in the existing empirical literature, and identify and reflect on important implications for future research. Given the diversity of climate-relevant concepts that can be measured via survey questions, we recommend that researchers are clear about which component(s) of climate change public opinion they are eliciting, how they analyze these, and situate their research claims and policy recommendations accordingly.
Kenny, John; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game? Journal Article
In: Electoral Studies, vol. 95, 2025, ISSN: 0261-3794.
@article{6a2684c29dd14c0ebdd97b9f89edecbb,
title = {Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?},
author = {John Kenny and Michael S. Lewis-Beck},
doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933},
issn = {0261-3794},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-06-01},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
volume = {95},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.},
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Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.
Kenny, John; Geese, Lucas
An authenticity expectations gap? A comparison of publics’ and Members of Parliament’s views on politicians being true to themselves Journal Article
In: Polity, vol. 57, no. 2, pp. 350–369, 2025, ISSN: 0032-3497, (The funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601).).
@article{d9a28d723c1845c38f6cc05d29538343,
title = {An authenticity expectations gap? A comparison of publics' and Members of Parliament's views on politicians being true to themselves},
author = {John Kenny and Lucas Geese},
doi = {10.1086/734680},
issn = {0032-3497},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-04-01},
journal = {Polity},
volume = {57},
number = {2},
pages = {350–369},
publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
abstract = {Authentic representatives may offer voters an antidote to the perceived failings of the stereotypical out-of-touch “fake” politician. While gaining more scholarly attention, the nascent literature rarely considers both publics’ and politicians’ views simultaneously. Here, we draw on rare public opinion and Member of Parliament (MPs) surveys fielded in 2023 in Britain and Germany. One hundred UK MPs and seventy-nine German MPs answered the extent to which they will act according to their strongly held views when these come into conflict with those of (1) their voters, (2) their party, or (3) the consensus of independent experts. Publics in these countries were asked for each of these situations the extent to which MPs should act according to their own views. We thus measure preferences for a central feature of an authentic politician in being consistent in representing their core beliefs in their behaviors. We find that German MPs are much more willing compared to UK MPs to state they would follow their own views when faced with a conflict with their voters, and at higher levels in comparison to situations when they are faced with a conflict with their party. Yet publics in both countries have a greater wish on average for an MP to be true to themselves when their views conflict with their party line than when they conflict with their voters. From this emerges expectation gaps between what MPs prioritize, and the principles that publics would like to see them emphasize.},
note = {The funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601).},
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Authentic representatives may offer voters an antidote to the perceived failings of the stereotypical out-of-touch “fake” politician. While gaining more scholarly attention, the nascent literature rarely considers both publics’ and politicians’ views simultaneously. Here, we draw on rare public opinion and Member of Parliament (MPs) surveys fielded in 2023 in Britain and Germany. One hundred UK MPs and seventy-nine German MPs answered the extent to which they will act according to their strongly held views when these come into conflict with those of (1) their voters, (2) their party, or (3) the consensus of independent experts. Publics in these countries were asked for each of these situations the extent to which MPs should act according to their own views. We thus measure preferences for a central feature of an authentic politician in being consistent in representing their core beliefs in their behaviors. We find that German MPs are much more willing compared to UK MPs to state they would follow their own views when faced with a conflict with their voters, and at higher levels in comparison to situations when they are faced with a conflict with their party. Yet publics in both countries have a greater wish on average for an MP to be true to themselves when their views conflict with their party line than when they conflict with their voters. From this emerges expectation gaps between what MPs prioritize, and the principles that publics would like to see them emphasize.
Geese, Lucas; Kenny, John
Opinion on climate change policy during the 2024 general election Book
Green Alliance, 2025, ISBN: 978-1-915754-57-8, (Acknowledgements: This research was enabled by Higher Education Innovation Funding (HEIF) allocated to the University of collaboration with Green Alliance. CAST is a global hub for understanding the crucial role that people play in fighting climate change. It is a cross institutional research centre with world leading expertise in environmental psychology, behaviour change, public engagement, policy, governance, education, communications and more. Its core partners are the University of Bath, the charity Climate Outreach, the University of Manchester, University of East Anglia and Cardiff University and it is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) (grant number ES/S012257/1). East Anglia and committed to the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST).).
@book{d4ae99c96cbb40d89c5afc8d3dd11f59,
title = {Opinion on climate change policy during the 2024 general election},
author = {Lucas Geese and John Kenny},
isbn = {978-1-915754-57-8},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-04-01},
publisher = {Green Alliance},
abstract = {In the lead up to the 2024 general election, concerns emerged about whether public support for climate and nature policy was weakening. With political narratives increasingly focused on the costs of net zero and the pace of transition, some argued that environmental ambition risked becoming a political liability. To explore these dynamics, Green Alliance commissioned polling from the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformation (CAST), using the election as a moment to understand how green policies resonate with voters. Alongside standard opinion polling, CAST ran a candidate choice experiment to assess which campaign messages moved public opinion. This research offers a clear message for policymakers. While public concern about energy bills and security remains real, voters are not turning away from climate action. There is broad political space to advance environmental policy, provided it is framed with care and grounded in the economic and social benefits it can deliver.},
note = {Acknowledgements: This research was enabled by Higher Education Innovation Funding (HEIF) allocated to the University of collaboration with Green Alliance. CAST is a global hub for understanding the crucial role that people play in fighting climate change. It is a cross institutional research centre with world leading expertise in environmental psychology, behaviour change, public engagement, policy, governance, education, communications and more. Its core partners are the University of Bath, the charity Climate Outreach, the University of Manchester, University of East Anglia and Cardiff University and it is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) (grant number ES/S012257/1). East Anglia and committed to the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST).},
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In the lead up to the 2024 general election, concerns emerged about whether public support for climate and nature policy was weakening. With political narratives increasingly focused on the costs of net zero and the pace of transition, some argued that environmental ambition risked becoming a political liability. To explore these dynamics, Green Alliance commissioned polling from the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformation (CAST), using the election as a moment to understand how green policies resonate with voters. Alongside standard opinion polling, CAST ran a candidate choice experiment to assess which campaign messages moved public opinion. This research offers a clear message for policymakers. While public concern about energy bills and security remains real, voters are not turning away from climate action. There is broad political space to advance environmental policy, provided it is framed with care and grounded in the economic and social benefits it can deliver.
Kenny, John; Breitenstein, Sofia; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
Political authenticity: Cases and consequences Journal Article
In: Polity, vol. 57, no. 2, pp. 189–197, 2025, ISSN: 0032-3497.
@article{6a0afe57590d43419315f7b1b3e7ce13,
title = {Political authenticity: Cases and consequences},
author = {John Kenny and Sofia Breitenstein and Michael S. Lewis-Beck},
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Breitenstein, Sofia; Kenny, John; Larner, Jac; Stiers, Dieter; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
The Authentic A**hole: Candidate consistency, causality, and the vote Journal Article
In: Polity, vol. 57, no. 2, pp. 240–252, 2025, ISSN: 0032-3497.
@article{1a006bb7c72845a1be660755ddcad03d,
title = {The Authentic A**hole: Candidate consistency, causality, and the vote},
author = {Sofia Breitenstein and John Kenny and Jac Larner and Dieter Stiers and Michael S. Lewis-Beck},
doi = {10.1086/734478},
issn = {0032-3497},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-04-01},
journal = {Polity},
volume = {57},
number = {2},
pages = {240–252},
publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
abstract = {Despite politicians’ authenticity being increasingly invoked in public discourse to explain their electoral fortunes, empirical research on the trait in electoral studies remains nascent. Here we advance our knowledge through a vignette survey experiment carried out on a national British sample. Firstly, we demonstrate that respondents are more likely to perceive a hypothetical politician as authentic when that politician resists political pressure in order to maintain a consistency between their stated policy positions and their political actions. This is the case whether respondents agree with their policy position or not. We also show that a candidate being perceived as authentic carries electoral benefits for them. Furthermore, consistency between a politician’s policy position and their actions enhances citizens’ perception of authenticity, consequently increasing the likelihood that they will vote for that politician. This study contributes to understanding authenticity in politics, offering valuable insights into the causal mechanisms of its electoral implications.},
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Despite politicians’ authenticity being increasingly invoked in public discourse to explain their electoral fortunes, empirical research on the trait in electoral studies remains nascent. Here we advance our knowledge through a vignette survey experiment carried out on a national British sample. Firstly, we demonstrate that respondents are more likely to perceive a hypothetical politician as authentic when that politician resists political pressure in order to maintain a consistency between their stated policy positions and their political actions. This is the case whether respondents agree with their policy position or not. We also show that a candidate being perceived as authentic carries electoral benefits for them. Furthermore, consistency between a politician’s policy position and their actions enhances citizens’ perception of authenticity, consequently increasing the likelihood that they will vote for that politician. This study contributes to understanding authenticity in politics, offering valuable insights into the causal mechanisms of its electoral implications.
2024
Moore, Brendan; Geese, Lucas; Kenny, John; Dudley, Harriet; Jordan, Andrew; Pascual, Alba Prados; Lorenzoni, Irene; Schaub, Simon; Enguer, Joan; Tosun, Jale
Politicians and climate change: A systematic review of the literature Journal Article
In: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, vol. 15, no. 6, 2024, ISSN: 1757-7780, (Funding Information: Funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601), and the UK ESRC (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) (Grant ES/S012257/) and the SeNSS DTP (Grant ES/P00072X/1)).).
@article{950dded18c9940a0ab8cb36fc9fe54b5,
title = {Politicians and climate change: A systematic review of the literature},
author = {Brendan Moore and Lucas Geese and John Kenny and Harriet Dudley and Andrew Jordan and Alba Prados Pascual and Irene Lorenzoni and Simon Schaub and Joan Enguer and Jale Tosun},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.908},
issn = {1757-7780},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-11-01},
journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},
volume = {15},
number = {6},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Politicians' engagement with climate change is the focus of an emerging literature, but this research has not been subjected to systematic analysis. To address this important gap, we perform a systematic review of 141 articles on politicians and climate change published between 1985 and 2021. We find a growing research area; almost half of the articles were published after 2018. Existing research is fragmented and focused on a small number of democracies in the Global North, with the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Norway and Australia being the most-heavily studied. Substantively, we analyze politicians' motivations, the incentives and barriers they face, and the strategies they employ to block/enable climate action. We find evidence of politicians being both intrinsically and extrinsically motivated. Intrinsic motivations often derive from formative experiences occurring prior to entering politics. Extrinsic motivations most commonly include publics/voters and external events. Importantly, intrinsic and extrinsic motivations vary in different political contexts, and indeed these two motivations may pull politicians in different directions. Politicians may employ various strategies—such as reframing—to achieve their desired policy outcomes. Moreover, politicians' motivations and strategies in relation to climate change are not static, but often vary. We conclude that there is an urgent need for research on how politicians are enabled and/or constrained by political system characteristics. Research is especially called for in the Global South and/or less democratic systems, as well as on investigating how politicians are (not) decarbonizing difficult-to-abate sectors and how they reconcile the sometimes-competing demands for climate change mitigation and adaptation.},
note = {Funding Information: Funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601), and the UK ESRC (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) (Grant ES/S012257/) and the SeNSS DTP (Grant ES/P00072X/1)).},
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Politicians’ engagement with climate change is the focus of an emerging literature, but this research has not been subjected to systematic analysis. To address this important gap, we perform a systematic review of 141 articles on politicians and climate change published between 1985 and 2021. We find a growing research area; almost half of the articles were published after 2018. Existing research is fragmented and focused on a small number of democracies in the Global North, with the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Norway and Australia being the most-heavily studied. Substantively, we analyze politicians’ motivations, the incentives and barriers they face, and the strategies they employ to block/enable climate action. We find evidence of politicians being both intrinsically and extrinsically motivated. Intrinsic motivations often derive from formative experiences occurring prior to entering politics. Extrinsic motivations most commonly include publics/voters and external events. Importantly, intrinsic and extrinsic motivations vary in different political contexts, and indeed these two motivations may pull politicians in different directions. Politicians may employ various strategies—such as reframing—to achieve their desired policy outcomes. Moreover, politicians’ motivations and strategies in relation to climate change are not static, but often vary. We conclude that there is an urgent need for research on how politicians are enabled and/or constrained by political system characteristics. Research is especially called for in the Global South and/or less democratic systems, as well as on investigating how politicians are (not) decarbonizing difficult-to-abate sectors and how they reconcile the sometimes-competing demands for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Geese, Lucas; Sullivan-Thomsett, Chantal; Jordan, Andrew J.; Kenny, John; Lorenzoni, Irene
Measuring climate mitigation policy content in text-as-data: navigating the conceptual challenges Journal Article
In: Political Research Exchange, vol. 6, no. 1, 2024, ISSN: 2474-736X, (Funding information: Funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601), and the UK ESRC (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) (Grant ES/S012257/1)).).
@article{3d3262e1044d468e881ab49bd820cd84,
title = {Measuring climate mitigation policy content in text-as-data: navigating the conceptual challenges},
author = {Lucas Geese and Chantal Sullivan-Thomsett and Andrew J. Jordan and John Kenny and Irene Lorenzoni},
doi = {10.1080/2474736X.2024.2387120},
issn = {2474-736X},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-08-01},
journal = {Political Research Exchange},
volume = {6},
number = {1},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
abstract = {A burgeoning comparative politics literature investigates the role of key political actors, such as political parties and members of parliament, in the global challenge of tackling climate change. While text-based indicators of political behaviour, such as parliamentary speeches, questions or social media, provide abundant sources of data for comparative research, much remains to be learned from the rigorous large-scale quantitative analysis of political text in relation to climate change. As a typical first step of text-as-data (TADA) workflows, the isolation of climate-related content is crucial. Yet it is also bedevilled by crucial conceptual complexities inherent to the nature of climate change as a global policy problem. In this note, we unpack these complexities in order to urge future TADA research to be mindful of them. We argue that, especially in comparative research settings, TADA analysts must find means to attenuate the tension between ‘overlooking’ and ‘overstretching’ climate-related text content. An illustrative example drawing on more than 400,000 parliamentary questions in the UK and Germany suggests that a thoughtful combination of off-the-shelf methods can be usefully leveraged to address this important challenge in applied political research.},
note = {Funding information: Funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601), and the UK ESRC (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) (Grant ES/S012257/1)).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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A burgeoning comparative politics literature investigates the role of key political actors, such as political parties and members of parliament, in the global challenge of tackling climate change. While text-based indicators of political behaviour, such as parliamentary speeches, questions or social media, provide abundant sources of data for comparative research, much remains to be learned from the rigorous large-scale quantitative analysis of political text in relation to climate change. As a typical first step of text-as-data (TADA) workflows, the isolation of climate-related content is crucial. Yet it is also bedevilled by crucial conceptual complexities inherent to the nature of climate change as a global policy problem. In this note, we unpack these complexities in order to urge future TADA research to be mindful of them. We argue that, especially in comparative research settings, TADA analysts must find means to attenuate the tension between ‘overlooking’ and ‘overstretching’ climate-related text content. An illustrative example drawing on more than 400,000 parliamentary questions in the UK and Germany suggests that a thoughtful combination of off-the-shelf methods can be usefully leveraged to address this important challenge in applied political research.
Kenny, John
In: Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis, vol. 26, no. 3-4, pp. 351–366, 2024, ISSN: 1387-6988, (Funding information: This work was supported by funding provided by the ERC [via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant No. 882601]. Supplementary data for this article can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2023.2262431).
@article{d76c646098654028b29b032211c5c875,
title = {Disapproval of climate policy dismantlement: A comparative analysis of international public opinion on Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate change regime},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1080/13876988.2023.2262431},
issn = {1387-6988},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-07-01},
journal = {Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis},
volume = {26},
number = {3-4},
pages = {351–366},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
abstract = {When Trump was elected as US President and given the opportunity to implement his campaign promise of withdrawing the country from international climate change agreements, it sparked fears of a knock-on effect of non-commitment from other states that could result in the Paris Agreement’s dismantlement. This article examines public opinion – which often influences governments’ policy decisions – collected in early 2017 in 38 countries on his proposed withdrawal from international climate change agreements. On top of important individual-level predictors, disapproval of his proposal was higher in liberal democracies and countries that depend less on fossil fuels for electricity.},
note = {Funding information: This work was supported by funding provided by the ERC [via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant No. 882601]. Supplementary data for this article can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2023.2262431},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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When Trump was elected as US President and given the opportunity to implement his campaign promise of withdrawing the country from international climate change agreements, it sparked fears of a knock-on effect of non-commitment from other states that could result in the Paris Agreement’s dismantlement. This article examines public opinion – which often influences governments’ policy decisions – collected in early 2017 in 38 countries on his proposed withdrawal from international climate change agreements. On top of important individual-level predictors, disapproval of his proposal was higher in liberal democracies and countries that depend less on fossil fuels for electricity.
Kenny, John
The changing prioritization of environmental protection in Britain: 1982-2019 Journal Article
In: Government and Opposition, vol. 59, no. 1, pp. 168–186, 2024, ISSN: 0017-257X, (Acknowledgements: The author would like to thank Ben Clements, Peter Enns, Will Jennings, Joan Madia, Andra Roescu, Riley Taiji, Giacomo Vagni and the three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on previous drafts that greatly improved the article. An earlier version of the article was presented at the 2020 Environmental Social Sciences workshop at the University of Bern, and the author is grateful for feedback received at this. This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (grant number ESRC ES/S000380/1).).
@article{ba737ebd216441d783d99311def4ac13,
title = {The changing prioritization of environmental protection in Britain: 1982-2019},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1017/gov.2022.17},
issn = {0017-257X},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-30},
journal = {Government and Opposition},
volume = {59},
number = {1},
pages = {168–186},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {This article examines the evolution of long-term trends in the prioritization of environmental protection in Britain over a period of four decades. It does so by compiling comparable questions tapping into the same underlying environmental dimension from a range of sources, including historical polling data that has only recently been made available to the research community. At the aggregate level, prioritization largely tracks changing economic conditions as well as key environmental events, with the winter of 2019 showing the highest recorded levels. Furthermore, trends in individuals' willingness to prioritize the environment may not always go in tandem with trends in environmental salience. At the individual level, educational attainment is the only consistently significant demographic correlate over time. However, there is evidence of increasing politicization of the environment, with left-right orientations only becoming an important correlate of environmental prioritization in recent years, in line with rising divergence on the issue at the elite level.},
note = {Acknowledgements: The author would like to thank Ben Clements, Peter Enns, Will Jennings, Joan Madia, Andra Roescu, Riley Taiji, Giacomo Vagni and the three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on previous drafts that greatly improved the article. An earlier version of the article was presented at the 2020 Environmental Social Sciences workshop at the University of Bern, and the author is grateful for feedback received at this. This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (grant number ESRC ES/S000380/1).},
keywords = {},
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This article examines the evolution of long-term trends in the prioritization of environmental protection in Britain over a period of four decades. It does so by compiling comparable questions tapping into the same underlying environmental dimension from a range of sources, including historical polling data that has only recently been made available to the research community. At the aggregate level, prioritization largely tracks changing economic conditions as well as key environmental events, with the winter of 2019 showing the highest recorded levels. Furthermore, trends in individuals’ willingness to prioritize the environment may not always go in tandem with trends in environmental salience. At the individual level, educational attainment is the only consistently significant demographic correlate over time. However, there is evidence of increasing politicization of the environment, with left-right orientations only becoming an important correlate of environmental prioritization in recent years, in line with rising divergence on the issue at the elite level.
2023
Kenny, John; Langsæther, Peter Egge
Environmentalism as an independent dimension of political preferences Journal Article
In: European Journal of Political Research, vol. 62, no. 4, pp. 1031–1053, 2023, ISSN: 0304-4130.
@article{53f658d1f8434bb0855ed44ef2dcddd6,
title = {Environmentalism as an independent dimension of political preferences},
author = {John Kenny and Peter Egge Langsæther},
doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12549},
issn = {0304-4130},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-01},
journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
volume = {62},
number = {4},
pages = {1031–1053},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Environmental issues are an important aspect of party competition and voters’ political preferences. Yet political behaviour research often considers environmental attitudes as a component of a broader ‘second-dimension’ and either subsumes it into this or omits it. Using data from the fifth wave of the European Values Study, we demonstrate through factor analysis that environmentalism loads as a separate dimension across Western Europe, that environmentalism has somewhat different social predictors and that it has important associations with party preference that differ from those of other second dimension issues. Our findings have crucial implications. Firstly, not accounting for environmentalism in studies of political behaviour misses an important part of the picture. Secondly, subsuming environmentalism into a broader ‘cultural’ dimension may lead to incomplete conclusions about both social predictors and the electoral consequences of political attitudes and values. Thus, allowing for a separate environmental dimension opens up novel perspectives on political representation in Western democracies.},
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Environmental issues are an important aspect of party competition and voters’ political preferences. Yet political behaviour research often considers environmental attitudes as a component of a broader ‘second-dimension’ and either subsumes it into this or omits it. Using data from the fifth wave of the European Values Study, we demonstrate through factor analysis that environmentalism loads as a separate dimension across Western Europe, that environmentalism has somewhat different social predictors and that it has important associations with party preference that differ from those of other second dimension issues. Our findings have crucial implications. Firstly, not accounting for environmentalism in studies of political behaviour misses an important part of the picture. Secondly, subsuming environmentalism into a broader ‘cultural’ dimension may lead to incomplete conclusions about both social predictors and the electoral consequences of political attitudes and values. Thus, allowing for a separate environmental dimension opens up novel perspectives on political representation in Western democracies.
Kenny, John; Heath, Anthony; Richards, Lindsay
Fuzzy frontiers? Testing the fluidity of national, partisan and Brexit identities in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum Journal Article
In: Political Studies, vol. 71, no. 4, pp. 959–983, 2023, ISSN: 0032-3217.
@article{456db63147d8465cbec7fe7e89e76d49,
title = {Fuzzy frontiers? Testing the fluidity of national, partisan and Brexit identities in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum},
author = {John Kenny and Anthony Heath and Lindsay Richards},
doi = {10.1177/00323217211050001},
issn = {0032-3217},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-01},
journal = {Political Studies},
volume = {71},
number = {4},
pages = {959–983},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {British and English national identities have long been considered to have porous boundaries whereby English individuals consider the terms more or less interchangeable. However, there is no empirical evidence to demonstrate whether primary feelings of either Britishness or Englishness are highly fluid within-individuals or whether individuals are consistent in their perceptions of their British or English identity. This is especially relevant in the post-Brexit referendum context where national identity is highly correlated with Brexit attitudes. Using panel data, we demonstrate that there is a notable degree of fluidity between identifying as British or English. This is higher than the fluidity between other national identities in the UK as well as more fluid than moving between any partisan or EU referendum identities. Remainers are more fluid than Leavers in their Englishness, whereas they are similar in the fluidity of their Britishness.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
British and English national identities have long been considered to have porous boundaries whereby English individuals consider the terms more or less interchangeable. However, there is no empirical evidence to demonstrate whether primary feelings of either Britishness or Englishness are highly fluid within-individuals or whether individuals are consistent in their perceptions of their British or English identity. This is especially relevant in the post-Brexit referendum context where national identity is highly correlated with Brexit attitudes. Using panel data, we demonstrate that there is a notable degree of fluidity between identifying as British or English. This is higher than the fluidity between other national identities in the UK as well as more fluid than moving between any partisan or EU referendum identities. Remainers are more fluid than Leavers in their Englishness, whereas they are similar in the fluidity of their Britishness.
Kenny, John
The formation of British attitudes towards the Common Market: 1957–72 Journal Article
In: JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, vol. 61, no. 2, pp. 434–450, 2023, ISSN: 1468-5965, (Research Funding: Economic and Social Research Council. Grant Number: ES/S000380/1).
@article{0215309e5c4d4e88bfd76f61b9ab741b,
title = {The formation of British attitudes towards the Common Market: 1957–72},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1111/jcms.13381},
issn = {1468-5965},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-03-01},
journal = {JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies},
volume = {61},
number = {2},
pages = {434–450},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {This paper uses an extensive collection of historical surveys that have only recently been made available to researchers to examine the formation of British attitudes towards the then European Economic Community. It demonstrates that – up until 1967 – the demographic predictors of support for UK membership were unstable. Thereafter, coinciding with the second UK application, these attitudes started to stabilise and harden, with support becoming highest among men, the youngest age cohorts, the middle class and those with greater education. The renewed politicization of the issue in 1967 also coincided with Labour voters becoming significantly more likely to support membership. Following the change in the parties' positions, Labour voters subsequently become substantially less supportive than Conversative voters. The paper thus supports existing analyses on the role of elite cues, while providing new, robust evidence of the change in demographic associations over this formative period.},
note = {Research Funding: Economic and Social Research Council. Grant Number: ES/S000380/1},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This paper uses an extensive collection of historical surveys that have only recently been made available to researchers to examine the formation of British attitudes towards the then European Economic Community. It demonstrates that – up until 1967 – the demographic predictors of support for UK membership were unstable. Thereafter, coinciding with the second UK application, these attitudes started to stabilise and harden, with support becoming highest among men, the youngest age cohorts, the middle class and those with greater education. The renewed politicization of the issue in 1967 also coincided with Labour voters becoming significantly more likely to support membership. Following the change in the parties’ positions, Labour voters subsequently become substantially less supportive than Conversative voters. The paper thus supports existing analyses on the role of elite cues, while providing new, robust evidence of the change in demographic associations over this formative period.
2022
Fisher, Stephen D.; Kenny, John; Poortinga, Wouter; Böhm, Gisela; Steg, Linda
The politicisation of climate change attitudes in Europe Journal Article
In: Electoral Studies, vol. 79, 2022, ISSN: 0261-3794.
@article{5765a1d2c5d74ab6836ae1195c92e07d,
title = {The politicisation of climate change attitudes in Europe},
author = {Stephen D. Fisher and John Kenny and Wouter Poortinga and Gisela Böhm and Linda Steg},
doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102499},
issn = {0261-3794},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-10-01},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
volume = {79},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Do voters for different parties have distinct climate attitudes because of their positions on other issues? With European Social Survey (ESS) data, we find that in Western (but not Central and Eastern) Europe there is a linkage between left-right self-placement and climate attitudes that cannot be accounted for by economic egalitarianism or liberal cultural attitudes. That linkage partly but not fully accounts for why voters for different party families have different beliefs and worries about climate change. Green party voters are more climate conscious than other voters with similar left-wing identities and political values. Not only Populist-Right but also mainstream Conservative party-family voters are less worried about climate change than their left-right orientations and other political values suggest. While Western European countries nearly all follow the same pattern, there is no consistent structure in Central and Eastern European countries. Across Europe non-voters are less worried about climate change than voters.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Do voters for different parties have distinct climate attitudes because of their positions on other issues? With European Social Survey (ESS) data, we find that in Western (but not Central and Eastern) Europe there is a linkage between left-right self-placement and climate attitudes that cannot be accounted for by economic egalitarianism or liberal cultural attitudes. That linkage partly but not fully accounts for why voters for different party families have different beliefs and worries about climate change. Green party voters are more climate conscious than other voters with similar left-wing identities and political values. Not only Populist-Right but also mainstream Conservative party-family voters are less worried about climate change than their left-right orientations and other political values suggest. While Western European countries nearly all follow the same pattern, there is no consistent structure in Central and Eastern European countries. Across Europe non-voters are less worried about climate change than voters.
Enns, Peter K.; Harris, Jacob; Kenny, John; Roescu, Andra; Jennings, Will
Public responsiveness to declining crime rates in the United States and England and Wales Journal Article
In: British Journal of Criminology, vol. 62, no. 5, pp. 1093–1115, 2022, ISSN: 0007-0955, (Funding Information: This research was supported by a Cornell Population Center Grant Development Award, The Charles Koch Foundation, and U.K. Economic and Social Research Council research award ES/S000380/1.).
@article{2f61e0c29d1f4c5690167fc6a5a16ed4,
title = {Public responsiveness to declining crime rates in the United States and England and Wales},
author = {Peter K. Enns and Jacob Harris and John Kenny and Andra Roescu and Will Jennings},
doi = {10.1093/bjc/azac036},
issn = {0007-0955},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-09-01},
journal = {British Journal of Criminology},
volume = {62},
number = {5},
pages = {1093–1115},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
abstract = {During much of the second half of the twentieth century, public opinion in both the United States and Britain became more punitive as crime rates rose. These shifting public attitudes had a profound influence on criminal justice policies. What is less understood is how public attitudes in these countries have responded to declining crime rates since the early-1990s. To understand how the public reacts to declining crime rates, we focus on crimes recorded by the police as well as data on actual victimisation. We also draw on more than 4,000 national survey questions to construct measures of public concern about crime and support for punitive criminal justice responses. Our analyses illustrate parallels in the crime drop measured by victimisation surveys in the two countries (with recorded violent crime in England and Wales the exception to this overall trend). The over-time patterns in public concern about crime and punitive sentiment are more complex, with the US public becoming less punitive (in line with declining crime rates) while the British public’s concern with crime appears more in tune with actual crime rates. Given the distinct social, political and institutional settings offered by the two countries, the parallel dynamics of crime and the mixed response of public opinion help illustrate the importance of the comparative analysis of crime and its effects on society as well as the importance of considering multiple measures of public opinion related to crime and punishment.},
note = {Funding Information: This research was supported by a Cornell Population Center Grant Development Award, The Charles Koch Foundation, and U.K. Economic and Social Research Council research award ES/S000380/1.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
During much of the second half of the twentieth century, public opinion in both the United States and Britain became more punitive as crime rates rose. These shifting public attitudes had a profound influence on criminal justice policies. What is less understood is how public attitudes in these countries have responded to declining crime rates since the early-1990s. To understand how the public reacts to declining crime rates, we focus on crimes recorded by the police as well as data on actual victimisation. We also draw on more than 4,000 national survey questions to construct measures of public concern about crime and support for punitive criminal justice responses. Our analyses illustrate parallels in the crime drop measured by victimisation surveys in the two countries (with recorded violent crime in England and Wales the exception to this overall trend). The over-time patterns in public concern about crime and punitive sentiment are more complex, with the US public becoming less punitive (in line with declining crime rates) while the British public’s concern with crime appears more in tune with actual crime rates. Given the distinct social, political and institutional settings offered by the two countries, the parallel dynamics of crime and the mixed response of public opinion help illustrate the importance of the comparative analysis of crime and its effects on society as well as the importance of considering multiple measures of public opinion related to crime and punishment.
Jordan, Andrew; Lorenzoni, Irene; Tosun, Jale; i Saus, Joan Enguer; Geese, Lucas; Kenny, John; Saad, Emiliano Levario; Moore, Brendan; Schaub, Simon G.
The political challenges of deep decarbonisation: towards a more integrated agenda Journal Article
In: Climate Action, vol. 1, 2022, ISSN: 2731-3263, (Funding information: The funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601) and the UK ESRC (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) ES/S012257/1). For further details, see: www.deepdcarb.org).
@article{62fcd27e28234e7984f618420d7a8418,
title = {The political challenges of deep decarbonisation: towards a more integrated agenda},
author = {Andrew Jordan and Irene Lorenzoni and Jale Tosun and Joan Enguer i Saus and Lucas Geese and John Kenny and Emiliano Levario Saad and Brendan Moore and Simon G. Schaub},
doi = {10.1007/s44168-022-00004-7},
issn = {2731-3263},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-03-18},
journal = {Climate Action},
volume = {1},
publisher = {Springer},
abstract = {Adopting public policies to deliver the ambitious long-term goals of the Paris Agreement will require significant societal commitment. That commitment will eventually emerge from the interaction between policies, publics and politicians. This article has two main aims. First, it reviews the existing literatures on these three to identify salient research gaps. It finds that existing work has focused on one aspect rather than the dynamic interactions between them all. Second, it sets out a more integrated research agenda that explores the three-way interaction between publics, policies and politicians. It reveals that greater integration is required to understand better the conditions under which different political systems address societal commitment dilemmas. In the absence of greater research integration, there is a risk that policymakers cling to two prominent but partial policy prescriptions: that ‘democracy’ itself is the problem and should be suspended; and that more deliberative forms of democracy are required without explaining how they will co-exist with existing forms.},
note = {Funding information: The funding was generously provided by the ERC (via the DeepDCarb Advanced Grant 882601) and the UK ESRC (via the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) ES/S012257/1). For further details, see: www.deepdcarb.org},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Adopting public policies to deliver the ambitious long-term goals of the Paris Agreement will require significant societal commitment. That commitment will eventually emerge from the interaction between policies, publics and politicians. This article has two main aims. First, it reviews the existing literatures on these three to identify salient research gaps. It finds that existing work has focused on one aspect rather than the dynamic interactions between them all. Second, it sets out a more integrated research agenda that explores the three-way interaction between publics, policies and politicians. It reveals that greater integration is required to understand better the conditions under which different political systems address societal commitment dilemmas. In the absence of greater research integration, there is a risk that policymakers cling to two prominent but partial policy prescriptions: that ‘democracy’ itself is the problem and should be suspended; and that more deliberative forms of democracy are required without explaining how they will co-exist with existing forms.
Kenny, John
The role of political attention in moderating the association between political identities and anthropogenic climate change belief in Britain Journal Article
In: Political Studies, vol. 70, no. 1, pp. 3–25, 2022, ISSN: 0032-3217.
@article{c4d2c78cbb71432f89ecc0591d61a5b7,
title = {The role of political attention in moderating the association between political identities and anthropogenic climate change belief in Britain},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1177/0032321720928261},
issn = {0032-3217},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-02-01},
journal = {Political Studies},
volume = {70},
number = {1},
pages = {3–25},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {US research shows that the partisan divide among elites on climate change has been mirrored by division at the citizen level, with this division being especially prominent among more politically engaged citizens. Using British Election Study data from 2016, this article examines whether a similar phenomenon is occurring in Britain, a country that experienced an increase in climate sceptic media coverage in the aftermath of the passing of the 2008 Climate Change Act. The results show that UK Independence Party and Conservative Party partisans as well as Leavers who pay more attention to politics are less likely to believe in the existence of anthropogenic climate change in contrast to Labour Party partisans and Remainers where increased political attention is associated with greater belief. These findings point to the inherent difficulties of bringing public beliefs on climate change in line with the scientific consensus in the presence of divided elite cues.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
US research shows that the partisan divide among elites on climate change has been mirrored by division at the citizen level, with this division being especially prominent among more politically engaged citizens. Using British Election Study data from 2016, this article examines whether a similar phenomenon is occurring in Britain, a country that experienced an increase in climate sceptic media coverage in the aftermath of the passing of the 2008 Climate Change Act. The results show that UK Independence Party and Conservative Party partisans as well as Leavers who pay more attention to politics are less likely to believe in the existence of anthropogenic climate change in contrast to Labour Party partisans and Remainers where increased political attention is associated with greater belief. These findings point to the inherent difficulties of bringing public beliefs on climate change in line with the scientific consensus in the presence of divided elite cues.
2021
Kenny, John
The Evolution of Environmental Concern in Europe Book Chapter
In: Franzen, Axel; Mader, Sebastian (Ed.): Research Handbook on Environmental Sociology, pp. 79–96, Edward Elgar Publishing, United Kingdom, 2021, ISBN: 9781800370449.
@inbook{a2a73ccad4a746539e8348cded3594d8,
title = {The Evolution of Environmental Concern in Europe},
author = {John Kenny},
editor = {Axel Franzen and Sebastian Mader},
doi = {10.4337/9781800370456.00013},
isbn = {9781800370449},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-11-19},
booktitle = {Research Handbook on Environmental Sociology},
pages = {79–96},
publisher = {Edward Elgar Publishing},
address = {United Kingdom},
abstract = {This chapter examines the evolution of environmental concern in Europe. It begins by looking at how the issue first came onto the public agenda in the 1960s and 1970s, comparing and contrasting with developments in the US. It then looks at the effects of specific environmental disasters in Europe, from the Seveso disaster in Italy in 1976 through to the phenomenon of forest death or Waldsterben in Germany and the Chernobyl explosion of 1986. Making use of the increased availability of comparative survey data from the 1990s, explanations are provided for the decline in concern recorded over the course of the decade before going on to document the rise of climate change in the public consciousness in the 21st century. Following an analysis of the roles the economic crisis of 2008 and the Climategate scandal of 2009 may have had on public opinion, the chapter finishes by discussing the renewed interest in the environmental in recent years in light of events such as the School Strikes and Extinction Rebellion protests.},
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This chapter examines the evolution of environmental concern in Europe. It begins by looking at how the issue first came onto the public agenda in the 1960s and 1970s, comparing and contrasting with developments in the US. It then looks at the effects of specific environmental disasters in Europe, from the Seveso disaster in Italy in 1976 through to the phenomenon of forest death or Waldsterben in Germany and the Chernobyl explosion of 1986. Making use of the increased availability of comparative survey data from the 1990s, explanations are provided for the decline in concern recorded over the course of the decade before going on to document the rise of climate change in the public consciousness in the 21st century. Following an analysis of the roles the economic crisis of 2008 and the Climategate scandal of 2009 may have had on public opinion, the chapter finishes by discussing the renewed interest in the environmental in recent years in light of events such as the School Strikes and Extinction Rebellion protests.
Kenny, John; Larner, Jac; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
Candidate authenticity and the Iowa Caucus Journal Article
In: Electoral Studies, vol. 73, 2021, ISSN: 0261-3794.
@article{1c30b1f2b98843f2bd92b9c0315f9ff9,
title = {Candidate authenticity and the Iowa Caucus},
author = {John Kenny and Jac Larner and Michael S. Lewis-Beck},
doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102390},
issn = {0261-3794},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-10-01},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
volume = {73},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Candidate ‘authenticity’ has become a frequent explanation of electoral performance. Yet its study in electoral research has been largely neglected. Building on recent work, we test its relationship with candidate support in the 2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus through a survey of likely Caucus goers. The Caucus offers an ideal setting — a contest focused on candidates and their personalities, in a context having far-reaching political implications. We demonstrate that authenticity perceptions played an important role in individual vote intentions. Indeed, for Biden and Buttigieg perceptions of their authenticity were strongly associated with vote intention even when controlling for other established traits. Warren, unlike the others, benefited indirectly, because her authenticity triggered substantial support among female voters. The performance of the authenticity trait, direct and indirect, points to its pivotal potential in the 2020 presidential campaign.},
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Candidate ‘authenticity’ has become a frequent explanation of electoral performance. Yet its study in electoral research has been largely neglected. Building on recent work, we test its relationship with candidate support in the 2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus through a survey of likely Caucus goers. The Caucus offers an ideal setting — a contest focused on candidates and their personalities, in a context having far-reaching political implications. We demonstrate that authenticity perceptions played an important role in individual vote intentions. Indeed, for Biden and Buttigieg perceptions of their authenticity were strongly associated with vote intention even when controlling for other established traits. Warren, unlike the others, benefited indirectly, because her authenticity triggered substantial support among female voters. The performance of the authenticity trait, direct and indirect, points to its pivotal potential in the 2020 presidential campaign.
Stiers, Dieter; Larner, Jac; Kenny, John; Breitenstein, Sofia; Vallée-Dubois, Florence; Lewis-Beck, Michael
Candidate authenticity: ‘To thine own self be true’ Journal Article
In: Political Behavior, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 1181–1204, 2021, ISSN: 0190-9320.
@article{5d94c5a1dbc44b979c6a7f49c6641fcb,
title = {Candidate authenticity: 'To thine own self be true'},
author = {Dieter Stiers and Jac Larner and John Kenny and Sofia Breitenstein and Florence Vallée-Dubois and Michael Lewis-Beck},
doi = {10.1007/s11109-019-09589-y},
issn = {0190-9320},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-09-01},
journal = {Political Behavior},
volume = {43},
number = {3},
pages = {1181–1204},
publisher = {Springer},
abstract = {In recent electoral contests, political observers and media outlets increasingly report on the level of “authenticity” of political candidates. However, even though this term has become commonplace in political commentary, it has received little attention in empirical electoral research. In this study, we identify the characteristics that we argue make a politician “authentic”. After theoretically discussing the different dimensions of this trait, we propose a survey battery aimed at measuring perceptions of the authenticity of political candidates. Testing our measure using data sets from different countries, we show that the answers to our items load on one latent concept that we call “authenticity”. Furthermore, perceptions of candidate authenticity correlate strongly with evaluations of political parties and leaders, and with vote intention, while they are empirically distinguishable from other traits. We conclude that candidate authenticity is an important trait that should be taken into account by future research.},
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In recent electoral contests, political observers and media outlets increasingly report on the level of “authenticity” of political candidates. However, even though this term has become commonplace in political commentary, it has received little attention in empirical electoral research. In this study, we identify the characteristics that we argue make a politician “authentic”. After theoretically discussing the different dimensions of this trait, we propose a survey battery aimed at measuring perceptions of the authenticity of political candidates. Testing our measure using data sets from different countries, we show that the answers to our items load on one latent concept that we call “authenticity”. Furthermore, perceptions of candidate authenticity correlate strongly with evaluations of political parties and leaders, and with vote intention, while they are empirically distinguishable from other traits. We conclude that candidate authenticity is an important trait that should be taken into account by future research.
Kenny, John
Are environment versus economy trade-off questions more about environmental or economic attitudes? Journal Article
In: International Journal of Public Opinion Research, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 159–170, 2021, ISSN: 0954-2892.
@article{2a7578e3a2684ea9b769c8243c531e52,
title = {Are environment versus economy trade-off questions more about environmental or economic attitudes?},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1093/ijpor/edaa003},
issn = {0954-2892},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {International Journal of Public Opinion Research},
volume = {33},
number = {1},
pages = {159–170},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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2020
Kenny, John
Economic conditions and support for the prioritisation of environmental protection during the Great Recession Journal Article
In: Environmental Politics, vol. 29, no. 6, pp. 937–958, 2020, ISSN: 0964-4016.
@article{69c57dea98a84cd1b7b1f079857907f0,
title = {Economic conditions and support for the prioritisation of environmental protection during the Great Recession},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1080/09644016.2019.1680074},
issn = {0964-4016},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-09-18},
journal = {Environmental Politics},
volume = {29},
number = {6},
pages = {937–958},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Evidence is presented of how the Great Recession affected prioritisation of environmental protection. World Values Survey data from both before the recession’s onset and its aftermath shows that increases in unemployment rates had significant, negative effects upon prioritisation of environmental protection while changing growth rates or gross domestic product (GDP) had none. These results hold not only among advanced industrial democracies, but also generalise to Latin American countries. Additionally, the findings offer no evidence that the recession changed the way in which individual wealth relates to the prioritisation of environmental protection. As a strong environmental public opinion is an important factor in the successful implementation of environmental policy, the findings suggest that, if policymakers wish to maintain public support for implementing environmental protection measures, they should prioritise low unemployment over economic growth.},
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Evidence is presented of how the Great Recession affected prioritisation of environmental protection. World Values Survey data from both before the recession’s onset and its aftermath shows that increases in unemployment rates had significant, negative effects upon prioritisation of environmental protection while changing growth rates or gross domestic product (GDP) had none. These results hold not only among advanced industrial democracies, but also generalise to Latin American countries. Additionally, the findings offer no evidence that the recession changed the way in which individual wealth relates to the prioritisation of environmental protection. As a strong environmental public opinion is an important factor in the successful implementation of environmental policy, the findings suggest that, if policymakers wish to maintain public support for implementing environmental protection measures, they should prioritise low unemployment over economic growth.
2018
Kenny, John
The role of economic perceptions in influencing views on climate change: an experimental analysis with British respondents Journal Article
In: Climate Policy, vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 581–592, 2018, ISSN: 1469-3062.
@article{b3241734caf1459dbd7ef7eb6172feab,
title = {The role of economic perceptions in influencing views on climate change: an experimental analysis with British respondents},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1080/14693062.2017.1414026},
issn = {1469-3062},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-05-28},
journal = {Climate Policy},
volume = {18},
number = {5},
pages = {581–592},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
abstract = {Existing analysis suggests that individuals may reduce their concern for and belief in climate change as a result of macro-economic difficulties. Such conclusions are predominantly based on repeated cross-sectional and pooled data making it difficult to separate out the effects of economic conditions from other explanatory factors. Approaching this question through experimentally priming individuals to feel a certain way about the economy has also proven difficult due to economic perceptions being difficult to alter in a survey setting [Kachi, Bernauer, & Gampfer, 2015. Climate policy in hard times: Are the pessimists right? Ecological Economics, 114, 227–241]. This article thus investigates a related question on the effect of the salience of economic perceptions on climate change views using an online question-order experiment, whereby salience denotes the prominence of the issue in the mind of the respondent. Respondents were randomly assigned to receiving an economic prompting question before or after being asked about their climate change views. The results show no effect of the prompting on belief in anthropogenic climate change, but they do show an effect of prompting on prioritization of taking urgent action to address climate change. Those with a non-positive view of the economy were less likely to support urgent action in comparison to those who considered the economy to be performing well if they were asked first about their economic evaluations. The salience of economic evaluations and the direction of such evaluations would not be significant if economic evaluations themselves were not important, and thus the findings also reveal that economic evaluations do matter.},
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}
Existing analysis suggests that individuals may reduce their concern for and belief in climate change as a result of macro-economic difficulties. Such conclusions are predominantly based on repeated cross-sectional and pooled data making it difficult to separate out the effects of economic conditions from other explanatory factors. Approaching this question through experimentally priming individuals to feel a certain way about the economy has also proven difficult due to economic perceptions being difficult to alter in a survey setting [Kachi, Bernauer, & Gampfer, 2015. Climate policy in hard times: Are the pessimists right? Ecological Economics, 114, 227–241]. This article thus investigates a related question on the effect of the salience of economic perceptions on climate change views using an online question-order experiment, whereby salience denotes the prominence of the issue in the mind of the respondent. Respondents were randomly assigned to receiving an economic prompting question before or after being asked about their climate change views. The results show no effect of the prompting on belief in anthropogenic climate change, but they do show an effect of prompting on prioritization of taking urgent action to address climate change. Those with a non-positive view of the economy were less likely to support urgent action in comparison to those who considered the economy to be performing well if they were asked first about their economic evaluations. The salience of economic evaluations and the direction of such evaluations would not be significant if economic evaluations themselves were not important, and thus the findings also reveal that economic evaluations do matter.
Kenny, John
In: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 105–124, 2018, ISSN: 1745-7289.
@article{354b50c27e2b4a2b932c7e0945d4d0a6,
title = {Environmental protection preferences under strain: an analysis of the impact of changing individual perceptions of economic and financial conditions on environmental public opinion during economic crisis},
author = {John Kenny},
doi = {10.1080/17457289.2017.1395884},
issn = {1745-7289},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-01-02},
journal = {Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties},
volume = {28},
number = {1},
pages = {105–124},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {This paper uses panel survey data from 2002 to 2008 – covering a period of economic prosperity and intense economic difficulties – to analyse the impact of changing levels of economic and financial security from the 2008 economic crisis on individuals’ environmental protection preferences. Declining economic conditions in the aftermath of the crisis have been thought to produce lower levels of support for environmental protection and previous literature has predominantly supported this claim. Due to the availability of data, most analyses undertaken to date have focused on aggregate changes using repeated cross-sectional data and various economic indicators. Research looking at individual-level change and how individuals’ perceptions of changing economic conditions may affect their prioritization of environmental protection has however been lacking. This paper finds that neither changing economic perceptions nor changing household financial circumstances can account for the decline in environmental protection prioritization witnessed in the aftermath of the great recession.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This paper uses panel survey data from 2002 to 2008 – covering a period of economic prosperity and intense economic difficulties – to analyse the impact of changing levels of economic and financial security from the 2008 economic crisis on individuals’ environmental protection preferences. Declining economic conditions in the aftermath of the crisis have been thought to produce lower levels of support for environmental protection and previous literature has predominantly supported this claim. Due to the availability of data, most analyses undertaken to date have focused on aggregate changes using repeated cross-sectional data and various economic indicators. Research looking at individual-level change and how individuals’ perceptions of changing economic conditions may affect their prioritization of environmental protection has however been lacking. This paper finds that neither changing economic perceptions nor changing household financial circumstances can account for the decline in environmental protection prioritization witnessed in the aftermath of the great recession.
