University of East Anglia
I am the leader of the Humboldt Initiative for Sustainable Ecosystems and Livelihoods and the coordinator of the Wallace Initiative (http://wallaceinitiative.org) a multi-institutional partnership examining the projected impacts of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity. To date, we have developed models on ~125,000 terrestrial fungi, plants, invertebrates and vertebrates. One of the goals of this project is to provide guidance as to what areas may remain refugia (i.e., remain climatically suitable for >75% of the species modelled in the area) or are best suitable (climatically) for restoration under warming levels 0f 1.5C – 6C at a spatial resolution of 1 km. Analyses of these data have been used to help advise on potential climate impacts to reserves and protected areas in the United Kingdom, Amazon, Madagascar and globally for a variety of NGOs. Wallace’s Parcs have used these data to prepare a report on the observed and projected climate changes, the observed land cover change, the observed and projected population change and the projected biodiversity changes for every terrestrial projected area on Earth, by country. These will be released as a series of Tyndall Papers starting later in 2020.
Successful sustainable long-term development in a dynamic, changing climate requires more proactive planning - taking into account food security, water security, energy security, ecosystem security and infrastructure security. Previously, Governments and Civil Society have largely been reactive. Changing the way groups work together, plan together and prepare together will be essential in a climate changed world.
Warren, R., J. Price, E. Graham, N. Forstenhaeusler, and J. VanDerWal. (2018). The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5° C rather than 2° C. Science 360 (6390): 791-795.
Smith, P., J. Price, A. Molotoks, R. Warren, and Y. Malhi. (2018). Impacts on terrestrial biodiversity of moving from a 2° C to a 1.5° C target. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 376 (2119), 20160456.
Warren, R., J. Price, J. VanDerWal., S. Cornelius, and H. Sohl. (2018). The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on Climate Change for Priority Places for Conservation. Climatic Change 147 (3-4): 395-409.
Suggitt, A.J., et al. including J. Price. (2017). Conducting robust ecological analyses with climate data. Oikos. DOI: 10.1111/oik.04203.
O’Neill, B.C., et al. including J. Price. (2017). Key Risks of Climate Change: The IPCC Reasons for Concern. Nature Climate Change 7(1): 28-37.
Price, J. (2017). The potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of Norfolk. Trans. Norfolk Norwich Nat. Soc 50(1).
Berry, P., C. Ibanez, M. Rounsevell, J. Price and R. Warren. (2017). Nature Conservation. Pages 55-63 in P. Berry, R. Betts, P. Harrison and A. Sanchez-Arcilla (Eds.). High-end Climate Change in Europe – impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Pensoft Publishers, Sofia. 100pp.
McDermott Long, O., Warren, R., Price, J., Brereton, T. M., Botham, M. S., Franco, A. M. A.(2017) Sensitivity of UK Butterflies to local climatic extremes: Which life stages are most at risk? Full Text UEA Repository (Article)
Hallgren, W., Beaumont, L., Bowness, A., Chambers, L., Graham, E., Holewa, H., Laffan, S., Mackey, B., Nix, H., Price, J., Vanderwal, J., Warren, R., Weis, G. (2016) The Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory: Where ecology meets big data Full Text UEA Repository (Article)
Warren, R., Lowe, J. A., Arnell, N. W., Hope, C., Berry, P., Brown, S., Gambhir, A., Gosling, S. N., Nicholls, R. J., O’Hanley, J., Osborn, T., Price, J., Raper, S. C. B., Rose, G., Vanderwal, J. (2013) The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation Full Text UEA Repository (Article)
Warren, R., Vanderwal, J., Price, J., Welbergen, J. A., Atkinson, I., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Osborn, T. J., Jarvis, A., Shoo, L. P., Williams, S. E., Lowe, J. (2013) Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss Full Text UEA Repository (Article)