Dr. Hazel Pettifor is a senior research officer at the University of East Anglia. As a social scientist she conducts research into the diffusion of novel, low carbon technologies focussing on consumer choice and its antecedents. She has particular interest and specialism in the use and application of large scale secondary social science data.
Hazel Pettifor
Selected Publications
Other
ResearchGate
Selected Publications
Pettifor, H., Wilson, C., Bogelein, S., Cassar, E., Kerr, L., & Wilson, M. (2020). Are low-carbon innovations appealing? A typology of functional, symbolic, private and public attributes. Energy Research & Social Science, 64, 101422. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.101422
Wilson, C., Pettifor, H., Cassar, E., Kerr, L., & Wilson, M. (2018). The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation. Energy Efficiency. doi:10.1007/s12053-018-9679-8
Wilson, C., Pettifor, H., & Chryssochoidis, G. (2018). Quantitative modelling of why and how homeowners decide to renovate energy efficiently. Applied Energy, 212, 1333-1344. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.11.099
Edelenbosch, O. Y., McCollum, D. L., Pettifor, H., Wilson, C., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2018). Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futures. Environmental Research Letters, 13(12), 124004. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aae948
Pettifor, H., Wilson, C., McCollum, D., & Edelenbosch, O. Y. (2017). Modelling social influence and cultural variation in global low-carbon vehicle transitions. Global Environmental Change, 47, 76-87. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.09.008
Pettifor, H., Wilson, C., Axsen, J., Abrahamse, W., & Anable, J. (2017). Social influence in the global diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles – A meta-analysis. Journal of Transport Geography, 62, 247-261. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.06.009
McCollum, D. L., Wilson, C., Pettifor, H., Ramea, K., Krey, V., Riahi, K., . . . Fujisawa, S. (2017). Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 55, 322-342. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.04.003
Pettifor, H., Wilson, C., & Chryssochoidis, G. (2015). The appeal of the green deal: Empirical evidence for the influence of energy efficiency policy on renovating homeowners. Energy Policy, 79(0), 161-176. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.015
Other
2020
Pettifor, Hazel; Wilson, Charlie
Low carbon innovations for mobility, food, homes and energy: A synthesis of consumer attributes Journal Article
In: Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 130, pp. 1–19, 2020, ISSN: 1364-0321.
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abstract = {Novel consumer goods and services in mobility, food, homes and energy domains are needed to help mitigate climate change. Appealing attributes of low carbon innovations accelerate their diffusion out of early-adopting segments into the mass market (1, 2). In this paper we synthesise insights on the attributes of low carbon consumer innovations across multiple domains. Using a directed literature review and content analysis, guided by Levitt’s hierarchical ring model which distinguishes core from non-core attributes, we identified over 170 relevant studies across mobility, food, homes and energy domains. We extracted a set of 16 attributes generalisable to low carbon innovations across multiple domains of consumption, with the exception of energy innovations which appeal on a reduced set of attributes. Using multi-dimensional scaling techniques we found the appeal of non-core attributes varies between domains but core attributes are consistent across domains in line with Levitt’s theory. As examples, low-carbon consumer innovations within mobility and food domains share non-core attributes related to improved private and public health, whereas innovations within food and home domains share non-core attributes related to technology acceptance and usability. We develop these findings to argue that many low carbon consumer innovations are currently positioned to appeal to a distinctive but limited group of early adopters who value novelty and climate benefits. To achieve mass market diffusion, product and service development, policy interventions, and communication strategies should focus on enhancing a wider set of attributes to broaden consumer appeal.},
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Novel consumer goods and services in mobility, food, homes and energy domains are needed to help mitigate climate change. Appealing attributes of low carbon innovations accelerate their diffusion out of early-adopting segments into the mass market (1, 2). In this paper we synthesise insights on the attributes of low carbon consumer innovations across multiple domains. Using a directed literature review and content analysis, guided by Levitt’s hierarchical ring model which distinguishes core from non-core attributes, we identified over 170 relevant studies across mobility, food, homes and energy domains. We extracted a set of 16 attributes generalisable to low carbon innovations across multiple domains of consumption, with the exception of energy innovations which appeal on a reduced set of attributes. Using multi-dimensional scaling techniques we found the appeal of non-core attributes varies between domains but core attributes are consistent across domains in line with Levitt’s theory. As examples, low-carbon consumer innovations within mobility and food domains share non-core attributes related to improved private and public health, whereas innovations within food and home domains share non-core attributes related to technology acceptance and usability. We develop these findings to argue that many low carbon consumer innovations are currently positioned to appeal to a distinctive but limited group of early adopters who value novelty and climate benefits. To achieve mass market diffusion, product and service development, policy interventions, and communication strategies should focus on enhancing a wider set of attributes to broaden consumer appeal.
Pettifor, Hazel; Wilson, Charlie; Bogelein, Sandra; Cassar, Emma; Kerr, Laurie; Wilson, Mark
Are low carbon innovations appealing? A typology of functional, symbolic, private and public attributes Journal Article
In: Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 64, 2020, ISSN: 2214-6296.
@article{d9834702be0d418ba3be63c1f62e50c0,
title = {Are low carbon innovations appealing? A typology of functional, symbolic, private and public attributes},
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abstract = {Attributes are central to understanding the consumer appeal of low carbon innovations. In this paper we provide a comprehensive understanding of the wide ranging attributes of low carbon innovations. We use a two-by-two dimensional typology which identifies four discrete domains of attribute: private functional, public functional, private symbolic, and public symbolic. Using structured elicitation with over 65 people we examine perceived attributes of 12 consumer innovations in mobility, food, homes and energy. We find that low carbon innovations are relatively unappealing against the private functional and symbolic attributes valued by potential mainstream consumers. This includes features such as money saving, time saving, ease of access, ease of use, trust, and private identity. They are, however, highly appealing against many public functional and symbolic attributes including a range of social and environmental benefits. Food innovations in particular have high social appeal where they support local businesses, protect and build communities around food and build community spirit. Home innovations such as smart appliances and smart lighting are highly appealing because they are novel yet also fit within current social norms. Low carbon innovations based on the sharing economy model offer unique sources of added value related to the creation of social institutions and localised networks. It is important that low carbon innovations are positioned within the marketplace so as to emphasise unique sources of added value within the public domain rather than compete directly with established incumbents whose business models are largely built on volume, scale and costs.},
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Attributes are central to understanding the consumer appeal of low carbon innovations. In this paper we provide a comprehensive understanding of the wide ranging attributes of low carbon innovations. We use a two-by-two dimensional typology which identifies four discrete domains of attribute: private functional, public functional, private symbolic, and public symbolic. Using structured elicitation with over 65 people we examine perceived attributes of 12 consumer innovations in mobility, food, homes and energy. We find that low carbon innovations are relatively unappealing against the private functional and symbolic attributes valued by potential mainstream consumers. This includes features such as money saving, time saving, ease of access, ease of use, trust, and private identity. They are, however, highly appealing against many public functional and symbolic attributes including a range of social and environmental benefits. Food innovations in particular have high social appeal where they support local businesses, protect and build communities around food and build community spirit. Home innovations such as smart appliances and smart lighting are highly appealing because they are novel yet also fit within current social norms. Low carbon innovations based on the sharing economy model offer unique sources of added value related to the creation of social institutions and localised networks. It is important that low carbon innovations are positioned within the marketplace so as to emphasise unique sources of added value within the public domain rather than compete directly with established incumbents whose business models are largely built on volume, scale and costs.
Louwen, Atse; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Vuuren, Detlef P. Van; Mccollum, David L.; Pettifor, Hazel; Wilson, Charlie; Junginger, Martin
Application of experience curves and learning to other fields Book Chapter
In: Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System, pp. 49–62, Elsevier, Netherlands, 2020, ISBN: 9780128187623.
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title = {Application of experience curves and learning to other fields},
author = {Atse Louwen and Oreane Y. Edelenbosch and Detlef P. Van Vuuren and David L. Mccollum and Hazel Pettifor and Charlie Wilson and Martin Junginger},
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abstract = {The concept of experience curves is normally applied to analyze cost or price developments of technologies, but studies have shown that the concept can also be extended to other applications and fields. In this chapter, we show the application of experience curves to analyze energy use in industrial processes, energy demand of household appliances and discuss its application to describe and project developments in environmental impact of technologies. A second part of the chapter shows a case study of applying the concept of technological learning to the field of social behavior in what is called social learning (SL). This part of the chapter shows how the diffusion of electric vehicles is affected by different SL mechanisms.},
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The concept of experience curves is normally applied to analyze cost or price developments of technologies, but studies have shown that the concept can also be extended to other applications and fields. In this chapter, we show the application of experience curves to analyze energy use in industrial processes, energy demand of household appliances and discuss its application to describe and project developments in environmental impact of technologies. A second part of the chapter shows a case study of applying the concept of technological learning to the field of social behavior in what is called social learning (SL). This part of the chapter shows how the diffusion of electric vehicles is affected by different SL mechanisms.
2019
Wilson, Charles; Pettifor, Hazel; Cassar, Emma; Kerr, Laurie; Wilson, Mark
The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation Journal Article
In: Energy Efficiency, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 423–440, 2019, ISSN: 1570-646X.
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title = {The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation},
author = {Charles Wilson and Hazel Pettifor and Emma Cassar and Laurie Kerr and Mark Wilson},
doi = {10.1007/s12053-018-9679-8},
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abstract = {This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 °C. First, we show that global integrated assessment models which characterise transformation pathways consistent with 1.5 °C mitigation are limited in their ability to analyse the emergence of novelty in energy end-use. Second, we introduce concepts of disruptive innovation which can be usefully applied to the challenge of 1.5 °C mitigation. Disruptive low-carbon innovations offer novel value propositions to consumers and can transform markets for energy-related goods and services while reducing emissions. Third, we identify 99 potentially disruptive low-carbon innovations relating to mobility, food, buildings and cities, and energy supply and distribution. Examples at the fringes of current markets include car clubs, mobility-as-a-service, prefabricated high-efficiency retrofits, internet of things, and urban farming. Each of these offers an alternative to mainstream consumer practices. Fourth, we assess the potential emission reductions from subsets of these disruptive low-carbon innovations using two methods: a survey eliciting experts’ perceptions and a quantitative scaling-up of evidence from early-adopting niches to matched segments of the UK population. We conclude that disruptive low-carbon innovations which appeal to consumers can help efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C.},
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This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 °C. First, we show that global integrated assessment models which characterise transformation pathways consistent with 1.5 °C mitigation are limited in their ability to analyse the emergence of novelty in energy end-use. Second, we introduce concepts of disruptive innovation which can be usefully applied to the challenge of 1.5 °C mitigation. Disruptive low-carbon innovations offer novel value propositions to consumers and can transform markets for energy-related goods and services while reducing emissions. Third, we identify 99 potentially disruptive low-carbon innovations relating to mobility, food, buildings and cities, and energy supply and distribution. Examples at the fringes of current markets include car clubs, mobility-as-a-service, prefabricated high-efficiency retrofits, internet of things, and urban farming. Each of these offers an alternative to mainstream consumer practices. Fourth, we assess the potential emission reductions from subsets of these disruptive low-carbon innovations using two methods: a survey eliciting experts’ perceptions and a quantitative scaling-up of evidence from early-adopting niches to matched segments of the UK population. We conclude that disruptive low-carbon innovations which appeal to consumers can help efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C.
2018
Edelenbosch, Oreane; McCollum, David; Pettifor, Hazel; Wilson, Charlie; Vuuren, Detlef Van
Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futures Journal Article
In: Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, no. 12, 2018, ISSN: 1748-9326.
@article{9e428300349843b6b3cd89e6325e6dc3,
title = {Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futures},
author = {Oreane Edelenbosch and David McCollum and Hazel Pettifor and Charlie Wilson and Detlef Van Vuuren},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aae948},
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year = {2018},
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journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
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abstract = {The transition to electric vehicles is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Modelling transition pathways helps identify critical drivers and uncertainties. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been used extensively to analyse climate mitigation policy. IAMs emphasise technological change processes but are largely silent on important social and behavioural dimensions to technological transitions. Here, we develop a novel conceptual framing and empirical evidence base on social learning processes relevant for vehicle adoption. We then implement this formulation of social learning in IMAGE, a widely-used global IAM. We apply this new modelling approach to analyse how technological learning and social learning interact to influence electric vehicle transition dynamics. We find that technological learning and social learning processes can be mutually reinforcing. Increased electric vehicle market shares can induce technological learning which reduces technology costs while social learning stimulates diffusion from early adopters to more risk-averse adopter groups. In this way, both types of learning process interact to stimulate each other. In the absence of social learning, however, the perceived risks of electric vehicle adoption among later adopting groups remains prohibitively high. In the absence of technological learning, electric vehicles remain relatively expensive and therefore only for early adopters an attractive choice. This first-of-its-kind model formulation of both social and technological learning is a significant contribution to improving the behavioural realism of global IAMs. Applying this new modelling approach emphasises the importance of market heterogeneity, real-world consumer decision-making, and social dynamics as well as technology parameters, to understand climate mitigation potentials.},
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The transition to electric vehicles is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Modelling transition pathways helps identify critical drivers and uncertainties. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been used extensively to analyse climate mitigation policy. IAMs emphasise technological change processes but are largely silent on important social and behavioural dimensions to technological transitions. Here, we develop a novel conceptual framing and empirical evidence base on social learning processes relevant for vehicle adoption. We then implement this formulation of social learning in IMAGE, a widely-used global IAM. We apply this new modelling approach to analyse how technological learning and social learning interact to influence electric vehicle transition dynamics. We find that technological learning and social learning processes can be mutually reinforcing. Increased electric vehicle market shares can induce technological learning which reduces technology costs while social learning stimulates diffusion from early adopters to more risk-averse adopter groups. In this way, both types of learning process interact to stimulate each other. In the absence of social learning, however, the perceived risks of electric vehicle adoption among later adopting groups remains prohibitively high. In the absence of technological learning, electric vehicles remain relatively expensive and therefore only for early adopters an attractive choice. This first-of-its-kind model formulation of both social and technological learning is a significant contribution to improving the behavioural realism of global IAMs. Applying this new modelling approach emphasises the importance of market heterogeneity, real-world consumer decision-making, and social dynamics as well as technology parameters, to understand climate mitigation potentials.
McCollum, David L.; Wilson, Charlie; Bevione, Michela; Carrara, Samuel; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Emmerling, Johannes; Guivarch, Cécile; Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis; Keppo, Ilkka; Krey, Volker; Lin, Zhenhong; Broin, Eoin Ó; Paroussos, Leonidas; Pettifor, Hazel; Ramea, Kalai; Riahi, Keywan; Sano, Fuminori; Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano; Vuuren, Detlef P.
Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles Journal Article
In: Nature Energy, vol. 3, pp. 664–673, 2018, ISSN: 2058-7546.
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title = {Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles},
author = {David L. McCollum and Charlie Wilson and Michela Bevione and Samuel Carrara and Oreane Y. Edelenbosch and Johannes Emmerling and Cécile Guivarch and Panagiotis Karkatsoulis and Ilkka Keppo and Volker Krey and Zhenhong Lin and Eoin Ó Broin and Leonidas Paroussos and Hazel Pettifor and Kalai Ramea and Keywan Riahi and Fuminori Sano and Baltazar Solano Rodriguez and Detlef P. Vuuren},
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abstract = {Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple, global energy- economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to mid-century. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary for driving widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient for bringing low-carbon vehicles to mass market, though it can certainly play a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonised energy supply.},
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Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple, global energy- economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to mid-century. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary for driving widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient for bringing low-carbon vehicles to mass market, though it can certainly play a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonised energy supply.
Edelenbosch, O Y; McCollum, D L; Pettifor, H; Wilson, C; van Vuuren, D P
Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futures Journal Article
In: Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, 2018.
@article{2125,
title = {Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futures},
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doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aae948},
year = {2018},
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journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
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abstract = {The transition to electric vehicles is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Modelling future pathways helps identify critical drivers and uncertainties. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been used extensively to analyse climate mitigation policy. IAMs emphasise technological change processes but are largely silent on important social and behavioural dimensions to future technological transitions. Here, we develop a novel conceptual framing and empirical evidence base on social learning processes relevant for vehicle adoption. We then implement this formulation of social learning in IMAGE, a widely-used global IAM. We apply this new modelling approach to analyse how technological learning and social learning interact to influence electric vehicle transition dynamics. We find that technological learning and social learning processes can be mutually reinforcing. Increased electric vehicle market shares can induce technological learning which reduces technology costs while social learning stimulates diffusion from early adopters to more risk-averse adopter groups. In this way, both types of learning process interact to stimulate each other. In the absence of social learning, however, the perceived risks of electric vehicle adoption among later-adopting groups remains prohibitively high. In the absence of technological learning, electric vehicles remain relatively expensive and therefore is only an attractive choice for early adopters. This first-of-its-kind model formulation of both social and technological learning is a significant contribution to improving the behavioural realism of global IAMs. Applying this new modelling approach emphasises the importance of market heterogeneity, real-world consumer decision-making, and social dynamics as well as technology parameters, to understand climate mitigation potentials. textcopyright 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
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<p>The transition to electric vehicles is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Modelling future pathways helps identify critical drivers and uncertainties. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been used extensively to analyse climate mitigation policy. IAMs emphasise technological change processes but are largely silent on important social and behavioural dimensions to future technological transitions. Here, we develop a novel conceptual framing and empirical evidence base on social learning processes relevant for vehicle adoption. We then implement this formulation of social learning in IMAGE, a widely-used global IAM. We apply this new modelling approach to analyse how technological learning and social learning interact to influence electric vehicle transition dynamics. We find that technological learning and social learning processes can be mutually reinforcing. Increased electric vehicle market shares can induce technological learning which reduces technology costs while social learning stimulates diffusion from early adopters to more risk-averse adopter groups. In this way, both types of learning process interact to stimulate each other. In the absence of social learning, however, the perceived risks of electric vehicle adoption among later-adopting groups remains prohibitively high. In the absence of technological learning, electric vehicles remain relatively expensive and therefore is only an attractive choice for early adopters. This first-of-its-kind model formulation of both social and technological learning is a significant contribution to improving the behavioural realism of global IAMs. Applying this new modelling approach emphasises the importance of market heterogeneity, real-world consumer decision-making, and social dynamics as well as technology parameters, to understand climate mitigation potentials. textcopyright 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.</p>
Wilson, C; Pettifor, H; Cassar, E; Kerr, L; Wilson, M
Potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5textordmasculineC climate mitigation Journal Article
In: Energy Efficiency, 2018.
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doi = {10.1007/s12053-018-9679-8},
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abstract = {This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 textdegreeC. First, we show that global integrated assessment models which characterise transformation pathways consistent with 1.5 textdegreeC mitigation are limited in their ability to analyse the emergence of novelty in energy end-use. Second, we introduce concepts of disruptive innovation which can be usefully applied to the challenge of 1.5 textdegreeC mitigation. Disruptive \emph{low-carbon} innovations offer novel value propositions to consumers and can transform markets for energy-related goods and services while reducing emissions. Third, we identify 99 potentially disruptive low-carbon innovations relating to mobility, food, buildings and cities, and energy supply and distribution. Examples at the fringes of current markets include car clubs, mobility-as-a-service, prefabricated high-efficiency retrofits, internet of things, and urban farming. Each of these offers an alternative to mainstream consumer practices. Fourth, we assess the potential emission reductions from subsets of these disruptive low-carbon innovations using two methods: a survey eliciting expertstextquoteright perceptions and a quantitative scaling-up of evidence from early-adopting niches to matched segments of the UK population. We conclude that disruptive low-carbon innovations which appeal to consumers can help efforts to limit warming to 1.5 textdegreeC.
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<p>This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 textdegreeC. First, we show that global integrated assessment models which characterise transformation pathways consistent with 1.5 textdegreeC mitigation are limited in their ability to analyse the emergence of novelty in energy end-use. Second, we introduce concepts of disruptive innovation which can be usefully applied to the challenge of 1.5 textdegreeC mitigation. Disruptive low-carbon innovations offer novel value propositions to consumers and can transform markets for energy-related goods and services while reducing emissions. Third, we identify 99 potentially disruptive low-carbon innovations relating to mobility, food, buildings and cities, and energy supply and distribution. Examples at the fringes of current markets include car clubs, mobility-as-a-service, prefabricated high-efficiency retrofits, internet of things, and urban farming. Each of these offers an alternative to mainstream consumer practices. Fourth, we assess the potential emission reductions from subsets of these disruptive low-carbon innovations using two methods: a survey eliciting expertstextquoteright perceptions and a quantitative scaling-up of evidence from early-adopting niches to matched segments of the UK population. We conclude that disruptive low-carbon innovations which appeal to consumers can help efforts to limit warming to 1.5 textdegreeC.</p>
Wilson, C; Pettifor, H; Chryssochoidis, G
Quantitative modelling of why and how homeowners decide to renovate energy efficiently Journal Article
In: Applied Energy, vol. 212, pp. 1333-1344, 2018.
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2017
Pettifor, Hazel; Wilson, Charlie; McCollum, David; Edelenbosch, Oreane
Modelling social influence and cultural variation in global low-carbon vehicle transitions Journal Article
In: Global Environmental Change, vol. 47, pp. 76–87, 2017, ISSN: 0959-3780.
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title = {Modelling social influence and cultural variation in global low-carbon vehicle transitions},
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abstract = {We present a unique and transparent approach for incorporating social influence effects into global integrated assessment models used to analyse climate change mitigation. We draw conceptually on Rogers (2003) diffusion of innovations, introducing heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real world processes.},
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We present a unique and transparent approach for incorporating social influence effects into global integrated assessment models used to analyse climate change mitigation. We draw conceptually on Rogers (2003) diffusion of innovations, introducing heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real world processes.
McCollum, David L.; Wilson, Charlie; Pettifor, Hazel; Ramea, Kalai; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Bertram, Christoph; Lin, Zhenhong; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Fujisawa, Sei
Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices Journal Article
In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 55, pp. 322–342, 2017, ISSN: 1361-9209.
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title = {Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices},
author = {David L. McCollum and Charlie Wilson and Hazel Pettifor and Kalai Ramea and Volker Krey and Keywan Riahi and Christoph Bertram and Zhenhong Lin and Oreane Y. Edelenbosch and Sei Fujisawa},
doi = {10.1016/j.trd.2016.04.003},
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publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. An innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and ‘behaviorally-realistic’ model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. More generally, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.},
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A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. An innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and ‘behaviorally-realistic’ model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. More generally, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.
2015
Pettifor, Hazel; Wilson, Charlie; Chrysochoidis, Georgios
The appeal of the Green Deal: Empirical evidence for the influence of energy efficiency policy on renovating homeowners Journal Article
In: Energy Policy, vol. 79, pp. 161–176, 2015, ISSN: 0301-4215, (This is an open access article published under a CC BY licence.).
@article{6070d868a3b14a70a3acfdfef91dc972,
title = {The appeal of the Green Deal: Empirical evidence for the influence of energy efficiency policy on renovating homeowners},
author = {Hazel Pettifor and Charlie Wilson and Georgios Chrysochoidis},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.015},
issn = {0301-4215},
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abstract = {The Green Deal is a major new energy policy designed to support the diffusion of energy efficiency measures in UK homes. This paper provides one of the first empirical examinations of the Green Deal’s success in influencing homeowners’ renovation decisions. Using a repeated measures design in which households were questioned before and after the Green Deal’s launch in January 2013, we assess the policy’s success in raising awareness of energy efficiency. In particular, we test the effectiveness of the Green Deal’s positioning to overcome barriers to renovation among homeowners already interested in or considering energy efficiency measures. Using the innovation decision process (Rogers 2003) as a conceptual framing of the renovation decision process, we examine whether new information on energy efficiency provided by the Green Deal strengthened intentions and its antecedents. We find that (1) energy efficiency is of potential appeal to all renovators regardless of their attitudes about energy efficiency, (2) energy efficiency opportunities need to be identified in the early stages of renovation when homeowners are thinking about ways to improve their home, and (3) homeowners’ intentions towards energy efficiency are weakened by uncertainty about financial benefits, helping to explain the relatively slow uptake of the Green Deal to-date.},
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The Green Deal is a major new energy policy designed to support the diffusion of energy efficiency measures in UK homes. This paper provides one of the first empirical examinations of the Green Deal’s success in influencing homeowners’ renovation decisions. Using a repeated measures design in which households were questioned before and after the Green Deal’s launch in January 2013, we assess the policy’s success in raising awareness of energy efficiency. In particular, we test the effectiveness of the Green Deal’s positioning to overcome barriers to renovation among homeowners already interested in or considering energy efficiency measures. Using the innovation decision process (Rogers 2003) as a conceptual framing of the renovation decision process, we examine whether new information on energy efficiency provided by the Green Deal strengthened intentions and its antecedents. We find that (1) energy efficiency is of potential appeal to all renovators regardless of their attitudes about energy efficiency, (2) energy efficiency opportunities need to be identified in the early stages of renovation when homeowners are thinking about ways to improve their home, and (3) homeowners’ intentions towards energy efficiency are weakened by uncertainty about financial benefits, helping to explain the relatively slow uptake of the Green Deal to-date.
Pettifor, H; Wilson, C; Chryssochoidis, G
The appeal of the green deal: Empirical evidence for the influence of energy efficiency policy on renovating homeowners Journal Article
In: Energy Policy, pp. 161-176, 2015.
@article{1154,
title = {The appeal of the green deal: Empirical evidence for the influence of energy efficiency policy on renovating homeowners},
author = {H Pettifor and C Wilson and G Chryssochoidis},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515000166},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.015},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-01-01},
journal = {Energy Policy},
pages = {161-176},
chapter = {161},
abstract = {The Green Deal is a major new energy policy designed to support the diffusion of energy efficiency measures in UK homes. This paper provides one of the first empirical examinations of the Green Deal's success in influencing homeownerstextquoteright renovation decisions. Using a repeated measures design in which households were questioned before and after the Green Deal's launch in January 2013, we assess the policy's success in raising awareness of energy efficiency. In particular, we test the effectiveness of the Green Deal's positioning to overcome barriers to renovation among homeowners already interested in or considering energy efficiency measures. Using the innovation decision process (Rogers, 2003) as a conceptual framing of the renovation decision process, we examine whether new information on energy efficiency provided by the Green Deal strengthened intentions and its antecedents. We find that (1) energy efficiency is of potential appeal to all renovators regardless of their attitudes about energy efficiency, (2) energy efficiency opportunities need to be identified in the early stages of renovation when homeowners are thinking about ways to improve their home, and (3) homeownerstextquoteright intentions towards energy efficiency are weakened by uncertainty about financial benefits, helping to explain the relatively slow uptake of the Green Deal to-date.
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<p>The Green Deal is a major new energy policy designed to support the diffusion of energy efficiency measures in UK homes. This paper provides one of the first empirical examinations of the Green Deal’s success in influencing homeownerstextquoteright renovation decisions. Using a repeated measures design in which households were questioned before and after the Green Deal’s launch in January 2013, we assess the policy’s success in raising awareness of energy efficiency. In particular, we test the effectiveness of the Green Deal’s positioning to overcome barriers to renovation among homeowners already interested in or considering energy efficiency measures. Using the innovation decision process (Rogers, 2003) as a conceptual framing of the renovation decision process, we examine whether new information on energy efficiency provided by the Green Deal strengthened intentions and its antecedents. We find that (1) energy efficiency is of potential appeal to all renovators regardless of their attitudes about energy efficiency, (2) energy efficiency opportunities need to be identified in the early stages of renovation when homeowners are thinking about ways to improve their home, and (3) homeownerstextquoteright intentions towards energy efficiency are weakened by uncertainty about financial benefits, helping to explain the relatively slow uptake of the Green Deal to-date.</p>
2013
Wilson, Charlie; Chrysochoidis, Georgios; Pettifor, Hazel
Understanding Homeowners’ Renovation Decisions:Findings of the VERD Project Miscellaneous
2013.
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title = {Understanding Homeowners’ Renovation Decisions:Findings of the VERD Project},
author = {Charlie Wilson and Georgios Chrysochoidis and Hazel Pettifor},
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date = {2013-10-16},
publisher = {UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC)},
abstract = {The VERD Study: In October 2011, the VERD project team at the Universityof East Anglia began a two-year research project investigating homeowners’ renovation decisions, funded by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC). This report and public conference summarises the findings, revealing why homeowners renovate and why they decide to improve their home energy efficiency.},
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The VERD Study: In October 2011, the VERD project team at the Universityof East Anglia began a two-year research project investigating homeowners’ renovation decisions, funded by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC). This report and public conference summarises the findings, revealing why homeowners renovate and why they decide to improve their home energy efficiency.
Wilson, C; Chryssochoidis, G; Pettifor, H
Understanding Homeowners’ Renovation Decisions:: Findings of the VERD Project Technical Report
UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) 2013.
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date = {2013-01-01},
publisher = {UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC)},
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ResearchGate
Research Areas
Email: hazel.pettifor@ouce.ox.ac.uk
Phone: +44 (0) 1603 592547
Postal Address:
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, ZICER 1.15
University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
