Hayley Fowler

@article{1636,

title = {Assessing long term flash flooding frequency using historical information.},

author = {D R Archer and G Parkin and H Fowler},

doi = {DOI: 10.2166/nh.2016.031},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

abstract = {<p>Flash floods are distinguished from textquoteleftnormal floodingtextquoteright by an abrupt onset arising from intense short period rainfall. Historical information based on pre-gauged descriptive information is used to prepare time series of flash floods for Northeast England and Southwest England as decadal numbers of events from 1800. The time series show a minimum in the late twentieth century for both locations. Flash flood frequency is then assessed for three locations in Northeast England by comparing recent extreme floods with historical accounts: (1) an urban pluvial flood in Newcastle in June 2012, (2) a severe flood in September 1968 on the Cotting Burn, a small ungauged tributary of the River Wansbeck, and (3) an extreme rate of rise in river level on the River Wansbeck in August 1994. Although there have been no comparable recent occurrences, several flash floods of equal or greater magnitude at the same locations were identified from historical accounts. Using the longer historical record in conjunction with limited recent observations has advantages when assessing the frequency of occurrence of rare events. However, these advantages are tempered by the possibility of non-stationarity in the historical series owing to catchment changes, from natural climatic variability and from potential anthropogenic climate change.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1638,

title = {Climate Change Impacts on Yangtze River Discharge at the Three Gorges Dam, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,},

author = {Birkinshaw S.J. and Guerreiro S.B. and A Nicholson and Liang Q. and Quinn P. and Zhang L. and He B. and Yin J. and H Fowler},

doi = {doi:10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

abstract = {<p>The Yangtze River basin is home to more than 400 million people and contributes to nearly half of Chinatextquoterights food production. Therefore, planning for climate change impacts on water resource discharges is essential. We used a physically based distributed hydrological model, Shetran, to simulate discharge in the Yangtze River just below the Three Gorges Dam at Yichang (1 007 200 kmtexttwosuperior), obtaining an excellent match between simulated and measured daily discharge, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.95 for the calibration period (1996–2000) and 0.92 for the validation period (2001–2005). We then used a simple monthly delta change approach for 78 climate model projections (35 different general circulation models – GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to examine the effect of climate change on river discharge for 2041–2070 for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Projected changes to the basintextquoterights annual precipitation varied between -3.6 and +14.8 % but increases in temperature and consequently evapotranspiration (calculated using the Thornthwaite equation) were projected by all CMIP5 models, resulting in projected changes in the basintextquoterights annual discharge from -29.8 to +16.0 %. These large differences were mainly due to the predicted expansion of the summer monsoon north and west into the Yangtze Basin in some CMIP5 models, e.g. CanESM2, but not in others, e.g. CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. This was despite both models being able to simulate current climate well. Until projections of the strength and location of the monsoon under a future climate improve, large uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of future change in discharge for the Yangtze will remain.</p><p>Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam (PDF Download Available). Available from: <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315957281_Climate_change_impacts_on_Yangtze_River_discharge_at_the_Three_Gorges_Dam">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315957281_Climate_change_impacts_on_Yangtze_River_discharge_at_the_Three_Gorges_Dam</a> [accessed Jun 9, 2017].</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1637,

title = {Do convection-permitting regional climate models improve projections of future precipitation change?},

author = {Kendon E.J. and N Ban and N M Roberts and H Fowler and M J Roberts and S Chan and G Fosser and J Evans and J Wilkinson},

doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-0004.1.},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

abstract = {<p>Regional climate projections are used in a wide range of impact studies, from assessing future flood risk to climate change impacts on food and energy production. These model projections are typically at 12–50-km resolution, providing valuable regional detail but with inherent limitations, in part because of the need to parameterize convection. The first climate change experiments at convection-permitting resolution (kilometer-scale grid spacing) are now available for the United Kingdom; the Alps; Germany; Sydney, Australia; and the western United States. These models give a more realistic representation of convection and are better able to simulate hourly precipitation characteristics that are poorly represented in coarser-resolution climate models. Here we examine these new experiments to determine whether future midlatitude precipitation projections are robust from coarse to higher resolutions, with implications also for the tropics. We find that the explicit representation of the convective storms themselves, only possible in convection-permitting models, is necessary for capturing changes in the intensity and duration of summertime rain on daily and shorter time scales. Other aspects of rainfall change, including changes in seasonal mean precipitation and event occurrence, appear robust across resolutions, and therefore coarse-resolution regional climate models are likely to provide reliable future projections, provided that large-scale changes from the global climate model are reliable. The improved representation of convective storms also has implications for projections of wind, hail, fog, and lightning. We identify a number of impact areas, especially flooding, but also transport and wind energy, for which very high-resolution models may be needed for reliable future assessments.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1634,

title = {Is the intensification of precipitation extremes with global warming better detected at hourly than daily resolutions?},

author = {Barbero R. and H Fowler and G Lenderink and S Blenkinsop},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

abstract = {<p>Although it has been documented that daily precipitation extremes are increasing worldwide, faster increases may be expected for subdaily extremes. Here after a careful quality control procedure, we compared trends in hourly and daily precipitation extremes using a large network of stations across the United States (U.S.) within the 1950–2011 period. A greater number of significant increasing trends in annual and seasonal maximum precipitation were detected from daily extremes, with the primary exception of wintertime. Our results also show that the mean percentage change in annual maximum daily precipitation across the U.S. per global warming degree is ~6.9% textdegreeC^{<font size="2">-1</font>} (in agreement with the Clausius-Clapeyron rate) while lower sensitivities were observed for hourly extremes, suggesting that changes in the magnitude of subdaily extremes in response to global warming emerge more slowly than those for daily extremes in the climate record.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1752,

title = {Assessing the threat of future megadrought in Iberia},

author = {Guerreiro S.B. and CG Kilsby and H J Fowler and F Serinaldi},

doi = {10.1002/joc.5140},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

journal = {International Journal of Climatology},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1755,

title = {Hydroclimate: Understanding Precipitation Extremes},

author = {G Lenderink and H J Fowler},

doi = {10.1038/nclimate3305},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {7},

pages = {391-393},

chapter = {391},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1753,

title = {An Integrated Approach to Assess the Resilience of Future Electricity Infrastructure Networks to Climate Hazards},

author = {G Fu and S Wilkinson and R Dawson and H J Fowler and CG Kilsby and M Panteli and PL Mancarella},

doi = {10.1109/JSYST.2017.2700791},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

journal = {IEEE Systems Journal},

volume = {99},

pages = {1-12},

chapter = {1},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1754,

title = {Super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of extreme hourly precipitation and its relation to large-scale atmospheric conditions},

author = {G Lenderink and Barbero R. and JM Loriaux and H J Fowler},

doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0808.1},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Climate},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1635,

title = {Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK},

author = {Stephen Blenkinsop and Lewis E. and S Chan and H Fowler},

doi = {DOI: 10.1002/joc.4735.},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

abstract = {<p>Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ~1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short-duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub-daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ~380 gauges with near-complete hourly records for 1992–2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, \textit{n}-largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north–south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub-daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality-control procedures for sub-daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high-resolution climate models and improved understanding of the drivers of extreme rainfall.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1007,

title = {Using probabilistic climate change information from a multi-model ensemble for water resource assessment},

author = {LJ Manning and JW Hall and H Fowler and CG Kilsby and C Tebaldi},

year  = {2009},

date = {2009-01-01},

journal = {Water Resource Research},

volume = {45},

chapter = {W11411},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{622,

title = {) Science I: Trends; Science II: Extremes; Science III: Impacts; Science IV: Actions; Science V: Complicities, Feeling the pressure: poetry and science of climate change},

author = {R Dawson and S Blenkinsopp and H Fowler},

year  = {2008},

date = {2008-01-01},

journal = {Feeling the pressure: poetry and science of climate change},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}