Detlef Van Vuuren

@article{b7497cbe411449a0a7787d34548f8a3ab,

title = {Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5-2 degrees C},

author = {Maria Sharmina and O Y Edelenbosch and C Wilson and R Freeman and D E H J Gernaat and Paul Gilbert and Alice Larkin and E W Littleton and Michael Traut and D P van Vuuren and N E Vaughan and Ruth Wood and C Le Quéré},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430},

issn = {1469-3062},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-24},

journal = {Climate Policy},

volume = {21},

number = {4},

pages = {455–474},

publisher = {Earthscan},

abstract = {Limiting warming to well below 2°Crequires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to analyse and track mitigation progress in these sectors. We find that emission reductions in the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios of the IMAGE model come from deep cuts in CO2 intensities and lower energy intensities, with minimal demand reductions in these sectors’ activity. We identify a range of additional measures and policy levers that are not explicitly captured in modelled scenarios but could contribute significant emission reductions in the four sectors. These are demand reduction options, and include less air travel (aviation), reduced transportation of fossil fuels (shipping), more locally produced goods combined with high load factors (road freight), and a shift to a circular economy (industry). We discuss the challenges of reducing demand both for economy-wide modelling and for policy. Based on our sectoral analysis framework, we suggest modelling improvements and policy recommendations, calling on the relevant UN agencies to start tracking mitigation progress through monitoring key elements of the framework (CO2 intensity, energy efficiency, demand for sectoral activity, as well as the underlying drivers), as a matter of urgency.},

note = {Funding Information: The authors are grateful to the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy for funding this research (grant number OJEU - CR16131BEIS). Additionally, E.W.L. acknowledges support from the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NE/P019951/1). Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.},

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}

@article{b7497cbe411449a0a7787d34548f8a3a,

title = {Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5-2 degrees C},

author = {Maria Sharmina and O Y Edelenbosch and C Wilson and R Freeman and D E H J Gernaat and Paul Gilbert and Alice Larkin and E W Littleton and Michael Traut and D P van Vuuren and N E Vaughan and Ruth Wood and C Le Quéré},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430},

issn = {1469-3062},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-24},

journal = {Climate Policy},

volume = {21},

number = {4},

pages = {455–474},

publisher = {Earthscan},

abstract = {Limiting warming to well below 2°Crequires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to analyse and track mitigation progress in these sectors. We find that emission reductions in the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios of the IMAGE model come from deep cuts in CO2 intensities and lower energy intensities, with minimal demand reductions in these sectors’ activity. We identify a range of additional measures and policy levers that are not explicitly captured in modelled scenarios but could contribute significant emission reductions in the four sectors. These are demand reduction options, and include less air travel (aviation), reduced transportation of fossil fuels (shipping), more locally produced goods combined with high load factors (road freight), and a shift to a circular economy (industry). We discuss the challenges of reducing demand both for economy-wide modelling and for policy. Based on our sectoral analysis framework, we suggest modelling improvements and policy recommendations, calling on the relevant UN agencies to start tracking mitigation progress through monitoring key elements of the framework (CO2 intensity, energy efficiency, demand for sectoral activity, as well as the underlying drivers), as a matter of urgency.},

note = {Funding Information: The authors are grateful to the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy for funding this research (grant number OJEU - CR16131BEIS). Additionally, E.W.L. acknowledges support from the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NE/P019951/1). Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2083,

title = {The challenge of decarbonising four critical sectors to limit warming to 1.5textdegreeC},

author = {M Sharmina and C Le Quéré and C Wilson and ? Edelenbosch and R Freeman and D Gernaat and A Larkin and EW Littleton and M Traut and D P Van Vuuren and N Vaughan and R Wood},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2080,

title = {Drivers of declining CO2 emissions in industrial countries},

author = {C Le Quéré and J I Korsbakken and C Wilson and J Tosun and R Andrews and R J Andres and J Canadell and Jordan A and GP Peters and D P Van Vuuren},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2013,

title = {Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios},

author = {N Vaughan and C Gough and S Mander and EW Littleton and A Welfle and D Gernaat and D P van Vuuren},

url = {http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa02},

doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa02},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Research Letters},

volume = {13},

abstract = {<p>Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 textdegreeC or 2 textdegreeC above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.</p>},

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}

@article{2125,

title = {Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futures},

author = {O Y Edelenbosch and D L McCollum and H Pettifor and C Wilson and D P van Vuuren},

doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aae948},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Research Letters},

volume = {13},

abstract = {<p>The transition to electric vehicles is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Modelling future pathways helps identify critical drivers and uncertainties. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been used extensively to analyse climate mitigation policy. IAMs emphasise technological change processes but are largely silent on important social and behavioural dimensions to future technological transitions. Here, we develop a novel conceptual framing and empirical evidence base on social learning processes relevant for vehicle adoption. We then implement this formulation of social learning in IMAGE, a widely-used global IAM. We apply this new modelling approach to analyse how technological learning and social learning interact to influence electric vehicle transition dynamics. We find that technological learning and social learning processes can be mutually reinforcing. Increased electric vehicle market shares can induce technological learning which reduces technology costs while social learning stimulates diffusion from early adopters to more risk-averse adopter groups. In this way, both types of learning process interact to stimulate each other. In the absence of social learning, however, the perceived risks of electric vehicle adoption among later-adopting groups remains prohibitively high. In the absence of technological learning, electric vehicles remain relatively expensive and therefore is only an attractive choice for early adopters. This first-of-its-kind model formulation of both social and technological learning is a significant contribution to improving the behavioural realism of global IAMs. Applying this new modelling approach emphasises the importance of market heterogeneity, real-world consumer decision-making, and social dynamics as well as technology parameters, to understand climate mitigation potentials. textcopyright 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.</p>},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{2084,

title = {Limiting global temperature change to 1.5 textdegreeC Implications for carbon budgets, emission pathways, and energy transitions},

author = {D Van Vuuren and A Hof and H Sytze de Boer},

url = {http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2017-limiting-global-temperature-change-to-1-5-degree-celsius_2743.pdf},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

publisher = {Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2011,

title = {Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 or 2C},

author = {R Warren and O Andrews and S Brown and N Forstenhaeusler and D Gernaat and P Goodwin and I Harris and Y He and C Home and FJ Colón-González and R Nicholls and T Osborn and J Price and D Van Vuuren and R Wright},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

publisher = {Tyndall Centre Briefing Note},

abstract = {<p>This Briefing Note summarises research examining the risks associated with global warming of 1.5<strong>textdegree</strong>C and 2<strong>textdegree</strong>C funded by the UK department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) undertaken by researchers at the Tyndall Centre.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1534,

title = {Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets},

author = {P Friedlingstein and R M Andrew and J Rogelj and GP Peters and J Canadell and R Knutti and G Luderer and M R Raupach and M Schaeffer and D P Van Vuuren and C Le Quéré},

url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84911922376&doi=10.1038%2fNGEO2248&partnerID=40&md5=649f11018047c9e96096919fdce09d22},

doi = {10.1038/NGEO2248},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Nature Geoscience},

volume = {7},

pages = {709-715},

chapter = {709},

abstract = {<p>Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2textdegreeC temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates. We show that CO2 emissions track the high end of the latest generation of emissions scenarios, due to lower than anticipated carbon intensity improvements of emerging economies and higher global gross domestic product growth. In the absence of more stringent mitigation, these trends are set to continue and further reduce the remaining quota until the onset of a potential new climate agreement in 2020. Breaking current emission trends in the short term is key to retaining credible climate targets within a rapidly diminishing emission quota. textcopyright 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.</p>},

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}

@article{1538,

title = {Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions},

author = {M R Raupach and S J Davis and GP Peters and R M Andrew and J Canadell and P Ciais and P Friedlingstein and F Jotzo and D P Van Vuuren and C Le Quéré},

url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84908596066&doi=10.1038%2fnclimate2384&partnerID=40&md5=f9b6d58575fff397c6eac5c1b99d1810},

doi = {10.1038/nclimate2384},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {4},

pages = {873-879},

chapter = {873},

abstract = {<p>Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO<inf>2</inf> emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2textdegreeC warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions. textcopyright 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{823,

title = {The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century. An application of the DIVA and IMAGE models},

author = {J Hinkel and D P van Vuuren and R J Nicholls and R J T Klein},

isbn = {01650009},

year  = {2012},

date = {2012-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

pages = {1-12},

chapter = {1},

abstract = {<p>This paper studies the effects of mitigation and adaptation on coastal flood impacts. We focus on a scenario that stabilizes concentrations at 450 ppm-CO _{2}-eq leading to 42 cm of global mean sea-level rise in 1995-2100 (GMSLR) and an unmitigated one leading to 63 cm of GMSLR. We also consider sensitivity scenarios reflecting increased tropical cyclone activity and a GMSLR of 126 cm. The only adaptation considered is upgrading and maintaining dikes. Under the unmitigated scenario and without adaptation, the number of people flooded reaches 168 million per year in 2100. Mitigation reduces this number by factor 1.4, adaptation by factor 461 and both options together by factor 540. The global annual flood cost (including dike upgrade cost, maintenance cost and residual damage cost) reaches US$ 210 billion per year in 2100 under the unmitigated scenario without adaptation. Mitigation reduces this number by factor 1.3, adaptation by factor 5.2 and both options together by factor 7.8. When assuming adaptation, the global annual flood cost relative to GDP falls throughout the century from about 0.06 % to 0.01-0.03 % under all scenarios including the sensitivity ones. From this perspective, adaptation to coastal flood impacts is meaningful to be widely applied irrespective of the level of mitigation. From the perspective of a some less-wealthy and small island countries, however, annual flood cost can amount to several percent of national GDP and mitigation can lower these costs significantly. We conclude that adaptation and mitigation are complimentary policies in coastal areas. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.</p>},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{824,

title = {How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?},

author = {A Hof and M Meinshausen and C Hope and G -K Plattner and Rachel Warren and D P van Vuuren and J Lowe and E Stehfest and L Gohar},

isbn = {01650009},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {104},

pages = {255-285},

chapter = {255},

abstract = {<p>Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e. g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities. © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.</p>},

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pubstate = {published},

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}