Alice Larkin

@article{e341703b6ff44262b28666dea1ceb652,

title = {Geography and the water–energy–food nexus: Introduction},

author = {Marian Scott and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1111/geoj.12331},

issn = {0016-7398},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-12-01},

journal = {The Geographical Journal},

publisher = {John Wiley & Sons Ltd},

abstract = {This themed section was initiated after the 2016 Annual Conference of the Royal Geographical Society‐Institute of British Geographers, which had the overall theme of Nexus Thinking , and which included assessment of geographical dimensions of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus. In this short editorial introduction, we outline the context for this assessment, and introduce the particular focus of the four papers that make up the section. We then show how they add to our understanding of the nexus in terms of the multiple and inter‐dependent geographical scales at which the WEF nexus can be analysed, and be the subject of governance, policy and action.},

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@article{e341703b6ff44262b28666dea1ceb652b,

title = {Geography and the water–energy–food nexus: Introduction},

author = {Marian Scott and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1111/geoj.12331},

issn = {0016-7398},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-12-01},

journal = {The Geographical Journal},

publisher = {John Wiley & Sons Ltd},

abstract = {This themed section was initiated after the 2016 Annual Conference of the Royal Geographical Society‐Institute of British Geographers, which had the overall theme of Nexus Thinking , and which included assessment of geographical dimensions of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus. In this short editorial introduction, we outline the context for this assessment, and introduce the particular focus of the four papers that make up the section. We then show how they add to our understanding of the nexus in terms of the multiple and inter‐dependent geographical scales at which the WEF nexus can be analysed, and be the subject of governance, policy and action.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{8809baae958f4782aca35cfd15080dcd,

title = {‘Aha’ moments in the water-energy-food nexus:: A new morphological scenario method to accelerate sustainable transformation},

author = {Claire Hoolohan and Carly McLachlan and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119712},

issn = {0040-1625},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-11-01},

journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The water-energy-food nexus lens highlights the complex relationships and multiple sources of uncertainty that affect the achievement of global sustainable development. Such complexity and uncertainty requires future-oriented research that is effective in gathering experience across disciplines, sectors and scales. Scenario analysis is a proven method for decision support in conditions of uncertainty, shown to provide opportunities for learning that supports transformational change. There are, however, few scenario studies that examine the water-energy-food nexus. This paper presents a novel morphological method for developing and analysing transdisciplinary scenarios that cover the water-energy-food nexus. The method combines existing research to generate of a small suite of scenarios that are able to portray substantial complexity and multidimensionality, yet are fit for use within participatory research. The potential of this method to enhance nexus thinking is discussed, illustrating how it could provide a much-needed platform to support the transition towards sustainability across the nexus. By providing a platform for transdisciplinary dialogue, the scenarios disturb existing assumptions, reintroduce social and justice questions to the technical challenges that face the nexus, and build capacity for sustainable transformation. Further research is required to apply this approach so it can support tangible changes in decision making.},

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@article{ab60ddcf39164c8491376fd9cb94ba30,

title = {Trade and trade-offs: Shipping in changing climates},

author = {Conor Walsh and Nicholas-Joseph Lazarou and Michael Traut and James Price and Carlo Raucci and Maria Sharmina and Paolo Agnolucci and Sarah Mander and Paul Gilbert and Kevin Anderson and Alice Larkin and Tristan Smith},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2019.103537},

issn = {0308-597X},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Marine Policy},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {This paper addresses the evolution of maritime transport demand in response to global climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. The complexity of the global shipping system makes predicting volumes and patterns of long-term future international maritime trade a challenging task which is best explored by building scenarios rather than ‘precise’ forecasts. We present four contrasting scenarios of international maritime trade out to 2050, available in high resolution in terms of the dimensions studied (regions, countries, commodities, decades), which are consistent with high and low levels of global CO2 mitigation and associated climate impacts. The scenarios project trade increasing to between two and four times the 2010 value by 2050. Scenarios characterised by low temperature increases and material intensity lead to the lower bound trade increase with high trade growth in bioenergy commodities. Unfettered production growth across countries, high temperature increases and material intensity lead to a quadrupling of trade across energy, containerised, dry and wet commodities. The estimated range is lower than those in existing scenarios and forecasts in which globalisation is assumed to continue apace. The scenarios which project the highest growth presupposes both limited decarbonisation (in contrast to the Paris Agreement) and continued growth in expanding markets. The scenarios therefore become a valuable policy and decision-making tool to address technological and operational change required of the shipping sector, if it is to deliver mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.},

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@article{ab60ddcf39164c8491376fd9cb94ba30b,

title = {Trade and trade-offs: Shipping in changing climates},

author = {Conor Walsh and Nicholas-Joseph Lazarou and Michael Traut and James Price and Carlo Raucci and Maria Sharmina and Paolo Agnolucci and Sarah Mander and Paul Gilbert and Kevin Anderson and Alice Larkin and Tristan Smith},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2019.103537},

issn = {0308-597X},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Marine Policy},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {This paper addresses the evolution of maritime transport demand in response to global climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. The complexity of the global shipping system makes predicting volumes and patterns of long-term future international maritime trade a challenging task which is best explored by building scenarios rather than ‘precise’ forecasts. We present four contrasting scenarios of international maritime trade out to 2050, available in high resolution in terms of the dimensions studied (regions, countries, commodities, decades), which are consistent with high and low levels of global CO2 mitigation and associated climate impacts. The scenarios project trade increasing to between two and four times the 2010 value by 2050. Scenarios characterised by low temperature increases and material intensity lead to the lower bound trade increase with high trade growth in bioenergy commodities. Unfettered production growth across countries, high temperature increases and material intensity lead to a quadrupling of trade across energy, containerised, dry and wet commodities. The estimated range is lower than those in existing scenarios and forecasts in which globalisation is assumed to continue apace. The scenarios which project the highest growth presupposes both limited decarbonisation (in contrast to the Paris Agreement) and continued growth in expanding markets. The scenarios therefore become a valuable policy and decision-making tool to address technological and operational change required of the shipping sector, if it is to deliver mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.},

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@article{2083,

title = {The challenge of decarbonising four critical sectors to limit warming to 1.5textdegreeC},

author = {M Sharmina and C Le Quéré and C Wilson and ? Edelenbosch and R Freeman and D Gernaat and A Larkin and EW Littleton and M Traut and D P Van Vuuren and N Vaughan and R Wood},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2004,

title = {CO2 abatement goals for international shipping},

author = {M Traut and A Larkin and K Anderson and C McGlade and M Sharmina and T Smith},

url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2018.1461059},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2018.1461059},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Climate Policy},

abstract = {<p>The Paris Agreement, which entered into force in 2016, sets the ambitious climate change mitigation goal of limiting the global temperature increase to below 2textdegreeC and ideally 1.5textdegreeC. This puts a severe constraint on the remaining global GHG emissions budget. While international shipping is also a contributor to anthropogenic GHG emissions, and CO_{2} in particular, it is not included in the Paris Agreement. This article discusses how a share of a global CO_{2} budget over the twenty-first century could be apportioned to international shipping, and, using a range of future trade scenarios, explores the requisite cuts to the CO_{2} intensity of shipping. The results demonstrate that, under a wide range of assumptions, existing short-term levers of efficiency must be urgently exploited to achieve mitigation commensurate with that required from the rest of the economy, with virtually full decarbonization of international shipping required as early as before mid-century.</p>},

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@article{3d54b8cd4804426fb6fe8ddab869c54f,

title = {CO2 abatement goals for international shipping},

author = {Michael Traut and Alice Larkin and Kevin Anderson and Christophe McGlade and Maria Sharmina and Tristan Smith},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2018.1461059},

issn = {1469-3062},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Climate Policy},

volume = {18},

number = {8},

pages = {1066–1075},

publisher = {Earthscan},

abstract = {The Paris Agreement, which entered into force in 2016, sets the ambitious climate change mitigation goal of limiting the global temperature increase to below 2°C and ideally 1.5°C. This puts a severe constraint on the remaining global GHG emissions budget. While international shipping is also a contributor to anthropogenic GHG emissions, and CO2 in particular, it is not included in the Paris Agreement. This article discusses how a share of a global CO2 budget over the twenty-first century could be apportioned to international shipping, and, using a range of future trade scenarios, explores the requisite cuts to the CO2 intensity of shipping. The results demonstrate that, under a wide range of assumptions, existing short-term levers of efficiency must be urgently exploited to achieve mitigation commensurate with that required from the rest of the economy, with virtually full decarbonization of international shipping required as early as before mid-century.},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{8cfdc6266b814b3fbcafeee3dcae8b14,

title = {Engaging stakeholders in research to address water-energy-food (WEF) nexus challenges},

author = {Claire Hoolohan and Alice Larkin and Carly Mclachlan and R Falconer and L Soutar and J Suckling and L. Varga and I. Haltas and A. Druckman and D M Lumbroso and M. Scott and D. Gilmour and R. Ledbetter and S. McGrane and C. Mitchell and D. Yu},

doi = {10.1007/s11625-018-0552-7},

issn = {1862-4065},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Sustainability Science},

publisher = {Springer Nature},

abstract = {The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus has become a popular, and potentially powerful, frame through which to analyse interactions and interdependencies between these three systems. Though the case for transdisciplinary research in this space has been made, the extent of stakeholder engagement in research remains limited with stakeholders most commonly incorporated in research as end-users. Yet stakeholders interact with nexus issues in a variety of ways, consequently there is much that collaboration might offer to develop nexus research and enhance its application. This paper outlines four aspects of nexus research and considers the value and potential challenges for transdisciplinary research in each. We focus on assessing and visualising nexus systems; understanding governance and capacity building; the importance of scale; and the implications of future change. The paper then proceeds to describe a novel mixed-method study that deeply integrates stakeholder knowledge with insights from multiple disciplines. We argue that mixed-method research designs – in this case orientated around a number of cases studies – are best suited to understanding and addressing real-world nexus challenges, with their inevitable complex, non-linear system characteristics. Moreover, integrating multiple forms of knowledge in the manner described in this paper enables research to assess the potential for, and processes of, scaling up innovations in the nexus space, in order to contribute insights to policy and decision making.},

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}

@article{d77ccdb4423c4fe8bfa434d8c5c1c3f7,

title = {Stepping-Up innovations in the water-energy-food nexus: A case study of Anaerobic Digestion in the UK},

author = {Claire Hoolohan and Iain Soutar and James Suckling and A. Druckman and Alice Larkin and Carly Mclachlan},

doi = {10.1111/geoj.12259},

issn = {0016-7398},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Geographical Journal},

publisher = {John Wiley & Sons Ltd},

abstract = {Grand societal challenges such as climate change, poverty and biodiversity loss call for rapid and radical changes to systems of production and consumption. Consequently, there is a growing interest in the dynamics of innovation, both social and technical, to accelerate innovation diffusion so as to increase the possibility of a step‐change or large‐scale transition. Research on the water–energy–food nexus adds an additional dimension to existing discussions, calling for transitions that recognise the sustainability challenges facing three major resource domains, and the synergies and tensions involved in their management. This paper examines anaerobic digestion (AD) – an example of innovation with potential benefits across the water–energy–food nexus – to understand the conditions that influence the rate of AD implementation and the achievement of its potential multi‐sectoral benefits across the water–energy–food nexus. Interview data regarding 15 AD plants are examined alongside complementary data from interviews and workshops using the Technological Innovation Systems framework. This framework provides an analytical structure through which the processes that enable and constrain the implementation of AD in the UK can be examined, enabling the identification of potential mechanisms to support AD's wider and more effective deployment. The findings call for recognition of the unintended consequences of sectoral support mechanisms for technological adaptation, and consequent performance of AD in other resource domains and call for greater integration between policy mechanisms to enable AD to perform across the nexus. They also highlight a need to assimilate knowledge from multiple sources (including site‐specific understanding gained from experimentation) to enhance the base on which policy and decision‐making occurs. These findings contribute to existing literature on sustainable transitions by examining the complexities of multi‐sectoral resource management in the context of nexus research},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{3d54b8cd4804426fb6fe8ddab869c54fb,

title = {CO2 abatement goals for international shipping},

author = {Michael Traut and Alice Larkin and Kevin Anderson and Christophe McGlade and Maria Sharmina and Tristan Smith},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2018.1461059},

issn = {1469-3062},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Climate Policy},

volume = {18},

number = {8},

pages = {1066–1075},

publisher = {Earthscan},

abstract = {The Paris Agreement, which entered into force in 2016, sets the ambitious climate change mitigation goal of limiting the global temperature increase to below 2°C and ideally 1.5°C. This puts a severe constraint on the remaining global GHG emissions budget. While international shipping is also a contributor to anthropogenic GHG emissions, and CO2 in particular, it is not included in the Paris Agreement. This article discusses how a share of a global CO2 budget over the twenty-first century could be apportioned to international shipping, and, using a range of future trade scenarios, explores the requisite cuts to the CO2 intensity of shipping. The results demonstrate that, under a wide range of assumptions, existing short-term levers of efficiency must be urgently exploited to achieve mitigation commensurate with that required from the rest of the economy, with virtually full decarbonization of international shipping required as early as before mid-century.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{8cfdc6266b814b3fbcafeee3dcae8b14b,

title = {Engaging stakeholders in research to address water-energy-food (WEF) nexus challenges},

author = {Claire Hoolohan and Alice Larkin and Carly Mclachlan and R Falconer and L Soutar and J Suckling and L. Varga and I. Haltas and A. Druckman and D M Lumbroso and M. Scott and D. Gilmour and R. Ledbetter and S. McGrane and C. Mitchell and D. Yu},

doi = {10.1007/s11625-018-0552-7},

issn = {1862-4065},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Sustainability Science},

publisher = {Springer Nature},

abstract = {The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus has become a popular, and potentially powerful, frame through which to analyse interactions and interdependencies between these three systems. Though the case for transdisciplinary research in this space has been made, the extent of stakeholder engagement in research remains limited with stakeholders most commonly incorporated in research as end-users. Yet stakeholders interact with nexus issues in a variety of ways, consequently there is much that collaboration might offer to develop nexus research and enhance its application. This paper outlines four aspects of nexus research and considers the value and potential challenges for transdisciplinary research in each. We focus on assessing and visualising nexus systems; understanding governance and capacity building; the importance of scale; and the implications of future change. The paper then proceeds to describe a novel mixed-method study that deeply integrates stakeholder knowledge with insights from multiple disciplines. We argue that mixed-method research designs – in this case orientated around a number of cases studies – are best suited to understanding and addressing real-world nexus challenges, with their inevitable complex, non-linear system characteristics. Moreover, integrating multiple forms of knowledge in the manner described in this paper enables research to assess the potential for, and processes of, scaling up innovations in the nexus space, in order to contribute insights to policy and decision making.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{d77ccdb4423c4fe8bfa434d8c5c1c3f7b,

title = {Stepping-Up innovations in the water-energy-food nexus: A case study of Anaerobic Digestion in the UK},

author = {Claire Hoolohan and Iain Soutar and James Suckling and A. Druckman and Alice Larkin and Carly Mclachlan},

doi = {10.1111/geoj.12259},

issn = {0016-7398},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Geographical Journal},

publisher = {John Wiley & Sons Ltd},

abstract = {Grand societal challenges such as climate change, poverty and biodiversity loss call for rapid and radical changes to systems of production and consumption. Consequently, there is a growing interest in the dynamics of innovation, both social and technical, to accelerate innovation diffusion so as to increase the possibility of a step‐change or large‐scale transition. Research on the water–energy–food nexus adds an additional dimension to existing discussions, calling for transitions that recognise the sustainability challenges facing three major resource domains, and the synergies and tensions involved in their management. This paper examines anaerobic digestion (AD) – an example of innovation with potential benefits across the water–energy–food nexus – to understand the conditions that influence the rate of AD implementation and the achievement of its potential multi‐sectoral benefits across the water–energy–food nexus. Interview data regarding 15 AD plants are examined alongside complementary data from interviews and workshops using the Technological Innovation Systems framework. This framework provides an analytical structure through which the processes that enable and constrain the implementation of AD in the UK can be examined, enabling the identification of potential mechanisms to support AD's wider and more effective deployment. The findings call for recognition of the unintended consequences of sectoral support mechanisms for technological adaptation, and consequent performance of AD in other resource domains and call for greater integration between policy mechanisms to enable AD to perform across the nexus. They also highlight a need to assimilate knowledge from multiple sources (including site‐specific understanding gained from experimentation) to enhance the base on which policy and decision‐making occurs. These findings contribute to existing literature on sustainable transitions by examining the complexities of multi‐sectoral resource management in the context of nexus research},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{4d12924b80f04bdeb333c2caa83e08ba,

title = {Global energy scenarios and their implications for future shipped trade},

author = {Maria Sharmina and Christophe McGlade and Paul Gilbert and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2017.06.025},

issn = {0308-597X},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-10-01},

journal = {Marine Policy},

volume = {84},

pages = {12–21},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {About half of the world’s oil supply, a fifth of coal supply and a tenth of natural gas supply are traded by ship. Accordingly, any significant shift in the size and shape of the global energy system has important consequences for shipping, which underpins international trade and supports economic development. The Paris Agreement requires an acceleration of the drive towards energy system decarbonisation. Yet, the International Maritime Organisation’s understanding of the future is more in line with the high-carbon scenarios analysed here. This paper is a first comprehensive and global assessment of implications of fundamental changes to global and regional energy systems for international shipping, under-researched in energy scenarios consistent with deep decarbonisation. It concludes that, despite uncertainties (particularly with negative emission technologies), fossil fuel trade by the middle of the century will almost certainly be significantly lower under low-carbon than under high-carbon scenarios, and (for oil and coal) lower than in 2012. As to bioenergy and captured carbon dioxide, while their supply is expected to increase during a low-carbon transition, worldwide shipped trade in these commodities will not necessarily grow, based on the analysis in this paper. In other words, if the low-carbon futures envisioned in the Paris Agreement materialise, energy-related shipping will likely decline (by a quarter for oil and by 50% for coal in the median <2°C scenarios by 2050), with significant ramifications for policies and regulation in the shipping sector and international trade},

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tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{4d12924b80f04bdeb333c2caa83e08bab,

title = {Global energy scenarios and their implications for future shipped trade},

author = {Maria Sharmina and Christophe McGlade and Paul Gilbert and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2017.06.025},

issn = {0308-597X},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-10-01},

journal = {Marine Policy},

volume = {84},

pages = {12–21},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {About half of the world’s oil supply, a fifth of coal supply and a tenth of natural gas supply are traded by ship. Accordingly, any significant shift in the size and shape of the global energy system has important consequences for shipping, which underpins international trade and supports economic development. The Paris Agreement requires an acceleration of the drive towards energy system decarbonisation. Yet, the International Maritime Organisation’s understanding of the future is more in line with the high-carbon scenarios analysed here. This paper is a first comprehensive and global assessment of implications of fundamental changes to global and regional energy systems for international shipping, under-researched in energy scenarios consistent with deep decarbonisation. It concludes that, despite uncertainties (particularly with negative emission technologies), fossil fuel trade by the middle of the century will almost certainly be significantly lower under low-carbon than under high-carbon scenarios, and (for oil and coal) lower than in 2012. As to bioenergy and captured carbon dioxide, while their supply is expected to increase during a low-carbon transition, worldwide shipped trade in these commodities will not necessarily grow, based on the analysis in this paper. In other words, if the low-carbon futures envisioned in the Paris Agreement materialise, energy-related shipping will likely decline (by a quarter for oil and by 50% for coal in the median <2°C scenarios by 2050), with significant ramifications for policies and regulation in the shipping sector and international trade},

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tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{e12cb7d7475b4659b8270285cf5735ae,

title = {What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations},

author = {Alice Larkin and Jaise Kuriakose and Maria Sharmina and Kevin Anderson},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2017.1346498},

issn = {1469-3062},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-08-03},

journal = {Climate Policy},

volume = {18},

number = {6},

pages = {690–714},

publisher = {Earthscan},

abstract = {A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what ‘2°C’ implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2°C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2°C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and socio-technical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO2 trends of the largest CO2 emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO2 budget, coupled with a ‘what if’ assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The article concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2°C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2°C scenarios.},

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@article{9b2fe02b6d40449eaff473855bf83bc6,

title = {Charting a low carbon future for shipping: a UK perspective},

author = {Conor Walsh and Sarah Mander and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2017.04.019},

issn = {0308-597X},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-08-01},

journal = {Marine Policy},

volume = {82},

pages = {32–40},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Projected growth in the international shipping industry is set to outstrip CO2 reductions arising from incremental improvements to technology and operations currently being planned and implemented. Using original scenarios, this paper demonstrates for the first time that it is possible for a nation's shipping to make a fair contribution to meeting global climate change commitments, but that this requires transformation of the sector. The scale and nature of technology change varies depending on the level of demand and how this is satisfied. The scenarios show that to develop successful marine mitigation policy, it is essential to consider the interdependencies between ship speed, level and pattern of demand for services, and the extent and rate of innovation in propulsion technology. Across the scenarios, it is difficult to foresee how deep decarbonisation can be achieved without an immediate, fleet-wide speed reduction; and a land-based energy-system transition strongly influences shipping demand, which in turn, influences the extent of required low-carbon propulsion technology change. Setting the industry on a 2 °C heading requires multifaceted and near-term changes in the shipping sector, but these are unlikely to materialise without a major shift by stakeholders to realise new and innovative deep decarbonisation policies in the coming decade.},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{9b2fe02b6d40449eaff473855bf83bc6b,

title = {Charting a low carbon future for shipping: a UK perspective},

author = {Conor Walsh and Sarah Mander and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2017.04.019},

issn = {0308-597X},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-08-01},

journal = {Marine Policy},

volume = {82},

pages = {32–40},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Projected growth in the international shipping industry is set to outstrip CO2 reductions arising from incremental improvements to technology and operations currently being planned and implemented. Using original scenarios, this paper demonstrates for the first time that it is possible for a nation's shipping to make a fair contribution to meeting global climate change commitments, but that this requires transformation of the sector. The scale and nature of technology change varies depending on the level of demand and how this is satisfied. The scenarios show that to develop successful marine mitigation policy, it is essential to consider the interdependencies between ship speed, level and pattern of demand for services, and the extent and rate of innovation in propulsion technology. Across the scenarios, it is difficult to foresee how deep decarbonisation can be achieved without an immediate, fleet-wide speed reduction; and a land-based energy-system transition strongly influences shipping demand, which in turn, influences the extent of required low-carbon propulsion technology change. Setting the industry on a 2 °C heading requires multifaceted and near-term changes in the shipping sector, but these are unlikely to materialise without a major shift by stakeholders to realise new and innovative deep decarbonisation policies in the coming decade.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

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@article{3e8300f84fde4a11a68d641f1d39f154,

title = {The Role of Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage in Meeting the Climate Mitigation Challenge: A Whole System Perspective},

author = {Sarah Mander and Kevin Anderson and Alice Larkin and Clair Gough and Naomi Vaughan},

doi = {10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1739},

issn = {1876-6102},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-07-01},

journal = {Energy Procedia},

volume = {114},

pages = {6036--6043},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {This paper explores the role and implications of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) for addressing the climate change mitigation challenge. Framed within the context of the latest emissions budgets, and their associated uncertainty, we present a summary of the contribution of BECCS within the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios used by the climate change community. Within this discussion we seek to shed light on two important areas. Firstly, that BECCS is a central, but often hidden element of many of the modelling work that underpins climate policy from the global to the national scale. The second area we address are the assumptions for BECCS embedded within IAM models, and the wider system consequences of these implied levels of deployment. In light of these challenges, we question whether BECCS can deliver what is anticipated of it within existing climate change policy.},

keywords = {},

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@article{1643,

title = {Charting a low carbon future for shipping: A UK perspective},

author = {C Walsh and S Mander and Alice Larkin},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.04.019},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

abstract = {<p>Projected growth in the international shipping industry is set to outstrip CO_{<font size="2">2</font>} reductions arising from incremental improvements to technology and operations currently being planned and implemented. Using original scenarios, this paper demonstrates for the first time that it is possible for a nationtextquoterights shipping to make a fair contribution to meeting global climate change commitments, but that this requires transformation of the sector. The scale and nature of technology change varies depending on the level of demand and how this is satisfied. The scenarios show that to develop successful marine mitigation policy, it is essential to consider the interdependencies between ship speed, level and pattern of demand for services, and the extent and rate of innovation in propulsion technology. Across the scenarios, it is difficult to foresee how deep decarbonisation can be achieved without an immediate, fleet-wide speed reduction; and a land-based energy-system transition strongly influences shipping demand, which in turn, influences the extent of required low-carbon propulsion technology change. Setting the industry on a 2 textdegreeC heading requires multifaceted and near-term changes in the shipping sector, but these are unlikely to materialise without a major shift by stakeholders to realise new and innovative deep decarbonisation policies in the coming decade.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1921,

title = {Global energy scenarios and their implications for future shipped trade},

author = {Maria Sharmina and Christophe McGlade and Paul Gilbert and Alice Larkin},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2017.06.025},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

journal = {Marine Policy},

volume = {84},

chapter = {12-21},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1923,

title = {Shipping in changing climates},

author = {Alice Larkin and Tristan Smith and Paul Wrobel},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2016.05.033},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

journal = {Marine Policy},

volume = {75},

chapter = {188-190},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1940,

title = {What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations},

author = {Alice Larkin and Jaise Kuriakose and Kevin Anderson and Maria Sharmina},

url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2017.1346498},

doi = {10.1080/14693062.2017.1346498},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

journal = {Climate Policy},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1582,

title = {Consumer responses to a future UK food system},

author = {L O{textquoteright}Keefe and C McLachlan and C Gough and S Mander and Alice Larkin},

url = {http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/BFJ-01-2015-0047},

doi = {10.1108/BFJ-01-2015-0047},

issn = {0007-070X},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

journal = {British Food Journal},

volume = {118},

pages = {412-428},

chapter = {412},

abstract = {<h5>Purpose</h5><p>– The purpose of this paper is to describe research exploring consumer responses to potential changes in food-related practices to mitigate and adapt to climate change.</p><p> </p><p><a name="_i2"></a></p><h5>Design/methodology/approach</h5><p>– Six focus groups explored consumer responses to measures to intended to mitigate the emissions from, and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These included: meat reduction, greater reliance on seasonal British food, meal replacement tablets, laboratory grown meat, communal eating houses, genetically modified food and food waste. Practice theory provided the lens to interpret the changes to meanings, competences and materials associated with food consumption.</p><p> </p><p><a name="_i3"></a></p><h5>Findings</h5><p>– Changes that could be assimilated within existing competencies were viewed more positively, with lack of competence a key barrier to accommodating change. At present, climate change and sustainability do not influence purchasing decisions. Policy measures delivering multiple benefits (textquotedblleftwin-winstextquotedblright), of which environmental performance may be one, stand an improved chance of establishing more sustainable practices than those focusing exclusively on environmental drivers.</p><p> </p><p><a name="_i4"></a></p><h5>Originality/value</h5><p>– Awareness of the role of sustainable food systems in the context of anthropogenic climate change is growing. Whilst scientific and technological research explores methods for reducing emissions and building resilience in food supply chains to changes in climate, there is comparatively little study of how consumers perceive these proposed textquotedblleftsolutionstextquotedblright. This research provides a comprehensive overview of consumer responses to potential changes in eating practices related to climate change mitigation and adaptation and is of value to policy makers, academics and practitioners across the food supply chain.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1234,

title = {A nexus perspective on competing land demands: Wider lessons from a UK policy case study},

author = {M Sharmina and C Hoolohan and Alice Larkin and PJ. Burgess and J Colwill and P Gilbert and D Howard and J Knox and K Anderson},

url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901116300326},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

journal = {Environmental Science & Policy},

volume = {59},

pages = {74-84},

chapter = {74},

abstract = {<p><span>As nations develop policies for low-carbon transitions, conflicts with existing policies and planning tools are leading to competing demands for land and other resources. This raises fundamental questions over how multiple demands can best be managed. Taking the UK as an empirical example, this paper critiques current policies and practices to explore the interdependencies at the water-energy-food nexus. It considers how current land uses and related policies affect the UKtextquoterights resilience to climate change, setting out an agenda for research and practice relevant to stakeholders in land-use management, policy and modelling. Despite recent progress in recognising such nexus challenges, most UK land-related policies and associated science continue to be compartmentalised by both scale and sector and seldom acknowledge nexus interconnections. On a temporal level, the absence of an over-arching strategy leaves inter-generational trade-offs poorly considered. Given the system lock-in and the lengthy policy-making process, it is essential to develop alternative ways of providing dynamic, flexible, practical and scientifically robust decision support for policy-makers. A range of ecosystem services need to be valued and integrated into a resilient land-use strategy, including the introduction of non-monetary, physical-unit constraints on the use of particular services.</span></p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{12f397b9946c44839994e9a59d3a50a4,

title = {Consumer responses to a future UK food system},

author = {L. O'Keefe and Carly Mclachlan and C. Gough and S. Mander and Alice Bows-Larkin},

doi = {10.1108/BFJ-01-2015-0047},

issn = {1758-4108},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

journal = {British Food Journal},

publisher = {Emerald Publishing Limited},

abstract = {The purpose of this paper is to describe research exploring consumer responses to potential changes in food-related practices to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Design/methodology/approach - Six focus groups explored consumer responses to measures intended to mitigate the emissions from, and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These included: meat reduction, greater reliance on seasonal British food, meal replacement tablets, laboratory grown meat, communal eating houses, genetically modified food and food waste. Practice theory provided the lens to interpret the changes to meanings, competences and materials associated with food consumption. Findings - Changes that could be assimilated within existing competencies were viewed more positively, with lack of competence a key barrier to accommodating change. At present, climate change and sustainability do not influence purchasing decisions. Policy measures delivering multiple benefits, of which environmental performance may be one, stand an improved chance of establishing more sustainable practices than those focusing exclusively on environmental drivers. Originality/value - Awareness of the role of sustainable food systems in the context of anthropogenic climate change is growing. Whilst scientific and technological research explores methods for reducing emissions and building resilience in food supply chains to changes in climate, there is comparatively little study of how consumers perceive these proposed solutions. This research provides a comprehensive overview of consumer responses to potential changes in eating practices related to climate change mitigation and adaptation and is of value to policy makers, academics and practitioners across the food supply chain.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{84683e77cf7f4f2a910c760e5cd37542,

title = {Shipping in changing climates},

author = {Alice Bows-Larkin and Tristan Smith and Paul Wrobel},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2016.05.033},

issn = {0308-597X},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

journal = {Marine Policy},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The shipping industry faces an uncertain future, as the climate change challenges faced by all sectors become increasingly urgent and apparent. If a quantitative interpretation of the goals laid out in the Paris Agreement is applied, shipping, along with all sectors combusting fossil fuel, faces substantial challenges in order to successfully decarbonise over the coming decades. Targeted at addressing gaps in knowledge and understanding across technical, operational and demand-side changes, this collection of articles presents some of the latest analysis to consider the opportunities available, and barriers to be overcome, to enable shipping's low carbon transition and the sustainability of global trade.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{12f397b9946c44839994e9a59d3a50a4b,

title = {Consumer responses to a future UK food system},

author = {L. O'Keefe and Carly Mclachlan and C. Gough and S. Mander and Alice Bows-Larkin},

doi = {10.1108/BFJ-01-2015-0047},

issn = {1758-4108},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

journal = {British Food Journal},

publisher = {Emerald Publishing Limited},

abstract = {The purpose of this paper is to describe research exploring consumer responses to potential changes in food-related practices to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Design/methodology/approach - Six focus groups explored consumer responses to measures intended to mitigate the emissions from, and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These included: meat reduction, greater reliance on seasonal British food, meal replacement tablets, laboratory grown meat, communal eating houses, genetically modified food and food waste. Practice theory provided the lens to interpret the changes to meanings, competences and materials associated with food consumption. Findings - Changes that could be assimilated within existing competencies were viewed more positively, with lack of competence a key barrier to accommodating change. At present, climate change and sustainability do not influence purchasing decisions. Policy measures delivering multiple benefits, of which environmental performance may be one, stand an improved chance of establishing more sustainable practices than those focusing exclusively on environmental drivers. Originality/value - Awareness of the role of sustainable food systems in the context of anthropogenic climate change is growing. Whilst scientific and technological research explores methods for reducing emissions and building resilience in food supply chains to changes in climate, there is comparatively little study of how consumers perceive these proposed solutions. This research provides a comprehensive overview of consumer responses to potential changes in eating practices related to climate change mitigation and adaptation and is of value to policy makers, academics and practitioners across the food supply chain.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{84683e77cf7f4f2a910c760e5cd37542b,

title = {Shipping in changing climates},

author = {Alice Bows-Larkin and Tristan Smith and Paul Wrobel},

doi = {10.1016/j.marpol.2016.05.033},

issn = {0308-597X},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

journal = {Marine Policy},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The shipping industry faces an uncertain future, as the climate change challenges faced by all sectors become increasingly urgent and apparent. If a quantitative interpretation of the goals laid out in the Paris Agreement is applied, shipping, along with all sectors combusting fossil fuel, faces substantial challenges in order to successfully decarbonise over the coming decades. Targeted at addressing gaps in knowledge and understanding across technical, operational and demand-side changes, this collection of articles presents some of the latest analysis to consider the opportunities available, and barriers to be overcome, to enable shipping's low carbon transition and the sustainability of global trade.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ecef11e8a221474cb6bc767c2cf97ea6,

title = {Russia's cumulative carbon budgets for a global 2°C target},

author = {Maria Sharmina and Alice Bows-Larkin and Kevin Anderson},

doi = {10.1080/17583004.2015.1113616},

issn = {1758-3004},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-11-30},

journal = {Carbon Management},

publisher = {Future Science Ltd},

abstract = {Russia is the fifth highest emitter of carbon dioxide, and has been in the top five for at least six decades. However, thus far no in-depth study has estimated Russia's cumulative emissions in the context of the global 2°C constraint. This is despite the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reiterating the importance of cumulative emissions and their approximately linear correlation with temperature rises. Translating the global 2°C temperature commitment into a meaningful national context, this paper derives and evaluates 2°C-compatible carbon budgets for Russia, based on a range of apportionment regimes. The work contributes to the debate by providing a deeper analysis of the principles of allocating carbon emissions to Russia, while considering two probabilities for remaining within 2°C. This analysis demonstrates how, if Russia is to make a fair contribution to global emission reductions in line with 2°C, its 2011-2100 cumulative emissions should not exceed 20-26 GtCO2, commensurate with a 37-52% probability of exceeding the global 2°C commitment. If Russia continues to emit CO2 at current annual levels, this budget will be 'spent' by the mid-2020s. Yet, the carbon budget estimated here for Russia appears technically feasible, if extremely challenging. Despite continuing to assert itself as a fossil fuel superpower, Russia has a wealth of opportunities for full and early decarbonisation, including the potential to become a net exporter of renewable energy.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ecef11e8a221474cb6bc767c2cf97ea6b,

title = {Russia's cumulative carbon budgets for a global 2°C target},

author = {Maria Sharmina and Alice Bows-Larkin and Kevin Anderson},

doi = {10.1080/17583004.2015.1113616},

issn = {1758-3004},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-11-30},

journal = {Carbon Management},

publisher = {Future Science Ltd},

abstract = {Russia is the fifth highest emitter of carbon dioxide, and has been in the top five for at least six decades. However, thus far no in-depth study has estimated Russia's cumulative emissions in the context of the global 2°C constraint. This is despite the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reiterating the importance of cumulative emissions and their approximately linear correlation with temperature rises. Translating the global 2°C temperature commitment into a meaningful national context, this paper derives and evaluates 2°C-compatible carbon budgets for Russia, based on a range of apportionment regimes. The work contributes to the debate by providing a deeper analysis of the principles of allocating carbon emissions to Russia, while considering two probabilities for remaining within 2°C. This analysis demonstrates how, if Russia is to make a fair contribution to global emission reductions in line with 2°C, its 2011-2100 cumulative emissions should not exceed 20-26 GtCO2, commensurate with a 37-52% probability of exceeding the global 2°C commitment. If Russia continues to emit CO2 at current annual levels, this budget will be 'spent' by the mid-2020s. Yet, the carbon budget estimated here for Russia appears technically feasible, if extremely challenging. Despite continuing to assert itself as a fossil fuel superpower, Russia has a wealth of opportunities for full and early decarbonisation, including the potential to become a net exporter of renewable energy.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}