Capturing coastal morphological change within regional integrated assessment: an outcome-driven fuzzy logic approach

TitleCapturing coastal morphological change within regional integrated assessment: an outcome-driven fuzzy logic approach
Publication TypeTyndall Working Paper
SeriesTyndall Centre Working Papers
Tyndall Consortium Institution

Southampton

Secondary TitleTyndall Centre Working Paper 113
Keywordscoastal management, East Anglia, fuzzy logic, model framework, sea level, sediment supply
AuthorsHanson, S., P. Balson, I. Brown, J. French, T. Spencer, W. Sutherland, and R. J. Nicholls
Year of Publication2007
Abstract

Climate change will have pervasive effects on the world’s coasts, but at broad scales these changes have typically proven difficult to analyse in a systematic manner. This paper explores an outcome-driven deductive methodology for geomorphological analysis that structures current knowledge and understanding using fuzzy logic concepts. Building on recent large-scale coastal investigations and with reference to a case study of the East Anglian coast U.K, the methodology defines the active coastal system using a flexible generic classification and integrates expert opinion, using the notion of possibility, as a basis for the assessment of potential future geomorphological response to changes in sea level and sediment supply. The proposed methodology produces a robust qualitative structure for assessment and forecasting of coastal geomorphology. Preliminary results for the East Anglian coast suggest that shoreline management is already having, and will continue to be, a significant influence on coastal evolution irrespective of the rate of sea-level rise. Therefore, significant potential exists to guide future coastal evolution towards preferred outcomes by using such methods as a component of adaptive shoreline management.

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