Developing regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation; Part 2: Scenario creation

TitleDeveloping regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation; Part 2: Scenario creation
Publication TypeTyndall Working Paper
SeriesTyndall Centre Working Papers
Tyndall Consortium Institution


Secondary TitleTyndall Centre Working Paper 67
Keywordsclimate change mitigation and adaptation, Developing regional and local scenarios, Scenario creation
AuthorsTurnpenny, J., T. O'Riordan, and A. Haxeltine
Year of Publication2005

* This is the second major part of the Tyndall Centre case study creating a set of scenarios of how the East of England Region may look in 2050 under large greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and with adaptation to residual climate changes. In the first part we set out an assessment (a 'framing narrative') of the region from the perspective of climate change. * We have used the East of England as a case study and this method can be extended to other regions and localities * The scenarios are a way to aid decision-makers by scoping out the issues and indicating, at a very broad scale, possible ways large emissions reductions might be achieved. They should not be used as predictions, or as detailed planning tools. * Three scenarios were developed based on national-scale work for the Research Councils, the OST Foresight Programme and the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution. These examine how the Region may look in 2050, and all reach a 60% emission reduction by 2050. * As well as climate change research, the Region's strategies, such as on the environment, economy and spatial planning (RPG14) also set an important context for the work. A fourth scenario examines the results of following current regional policies and plans; this scenario does not achieve a 60% emission reduction by 2050. Indeed it only reaches 20%. This offers an indication of the substantial challenge that lies ahead for the region to even reduce the trends in current emission growth, let alone reverse them. * Each scenario assumes that under climate change we will have warmer drier summers and warmer winters with more rainfall, and that sea level rise will accelerate, with increased coastal flooding and erosion. The scenarios differ in the way society deals with these impacts. * The Region does not act in isolation: each scenario assumes that the UK and the EU also move along the same paths. However, not all scenarios assume the rest of the world does so as well. * Each scenario description indicates a different pathway for reaching the 2050 emissions reduction target. The transformation from the current state happens gradually over the intervening period. * For research results to be credible and useful, they need to be embedded in a process of interaction with these users of the results. We have worked with several organisations, including Norfolk County Council, and the East of England Sustainable Development Round Table through joint workshops to develop the research. This has contributed particular knowledge of the Eastern Region and helped the scenarios' legitimacy with the users. * The scenarios are intended for a wide range of audiences, but primarily regional and local government officers. The storylines represent sectors important to regional policymakers, addressing economy, societal values, the role of energy efficiency, the scale and strength of regional governance, the type and scale of the energy supply system and the balance and location of economic activity.

wp67.pdf337.9 KB