Both low and high temperature may increase the risk of stroke mortality

TitleBoth low and high temperature may increase the risk of stroke mortality
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsKan, H., R. Chen, C. Wang, X. Meng, H. Chen, TQ Thach, and C. - M. Wong
Journal TitleNeurology
Volume81
Start Page1064
Issue12
Pagination1064-1070
KeywordsMortality, temperature
Abstract

Objective: To examine temperature in relation to stroke mortality in a multicity time series study in China. Methods: We obtained data on daily temperature and mortality from 8 large cities in China. We used quasi-Poisson generalized additive models and distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the accumulative effects of temperature on stroke mortality across multiple days, adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, day of the week, air pollution, and relative humidity. We applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to pool city-specific effect estimates. Results: Both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of stroke mortality. The potential effect of cold temperature might last more than 2 weeks. The pooled relative risks of extreme cold (first percentile of temperature) and cold (10th percentile of temperature) temperatures over lags 0-14 days were 1.39 (95% posterior intervals [PI] 1.18-1.64) and 1.11 (95% PI 1.06-1.17), compared with the 25th percentile of temperature. In contrast, the effect of hot temperature was more immediate. The relative risks of stroke mortality over lags 0-3 days were 1.06 (95%PI 1.02-1.10) for extreme hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature) and 1.14 (95% PI 1.05-1.24) for hot temperature (90th percentile of temperature), compared with the 75th percentile of temperature. Conclusions: This study showed that both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of stroke mortality in China. Our findings may have important implications for stroke prevention in China. © 2013 American Academy of Neurology.

DOI10.1212/WNL.0b013e3182a4a43c
Tyndall Consortium Institution

Fudan

Research Programme

Energy