|Title||Capturing coastal morphological change within regional integrated assessment: an outcome-driven fuzzy logic approach|
|Publication Type||Tyndall Working Paper|
|Series||Tyndall Centre Working Papers|
|Tyndall Consortium Institution|| |
|Secondary Title||Tyndall Centre Working Paper 113|
|Keywords||coastal management, East Anglia, fuzzy logic, model framework, sea level, sediment supply|
|Authors||Hanson, S., P. Balson, I. Brown, J. French, T. Spencer, W. Sutherland, and R. J. Nicholls|
|Year of Publication||2007|
Climate change will have pervasive effects on the world’s coasts, but at broad scales these changes have typically proven difficult to analyse in a systematic manner. This paper explores an outcome-driven deductive methodology for geomorphological analysis that structures current knowledge and understanding using fuzzy logic concepts. Building on recent large-scale coastal investigations and with reference to a case study of the East Anglian coast U.K, the methodology defines the active coastal system using a flexible generic classification and integrates expert opinion, using the notion of possibility, as a basis for the assessment of potential future geomorphological response to changes in sea level and sediment supply.
The proposed methodology produces a robust qualitative structure for assessment and forecasting of coastal geomorphology. Preliminary results for the East Anglian coast suggest that shoreline management is already having, and will continue to be, a significant influence on coastal evolution irrespective of the rate of sea-level rise. Therefore, significant potential exists to guide future coastal evolution towards preferred outcomes by using such methods as a component of adaptive shoreline management.